The AEI video, I actually dozed off watching it first time around.
My 2 cents for having watched the video.
Initially I thought,
Ms Fair has been given her brief and she is making the right noises now.
At least she says TSP wants to create Taliban Regime 2.0 (TR2.0), in her terms as Jurassic goons.
Now talking about containment 2014, (should it not begin in 2012?). Overall she seems to be learning a few things.
One thing is for sure she not planning to go back to TSP in the near future.
Disagree with her that Army is in a stronger position. (Has the Certification as part of KLB been approved for this year or is pending?)
If we review the last 1 yr (and as the host said) my take is, yes more valleys than peaks, but TSP has gotten jacked each time.
For US the weakest point IMO was when it was on the back foot during the RD affair.
In quick succession- OBL, Ilyas Kashmiri, Fai affair, Mullen (veritable arm), recent documentary from BBC and frontline (ISI, DCH, LET), Mansoor Ijaz-Haqqani memogate. It seems the ‘deep state’ in a way is being held to account by the US establishment. PAF forcing down IA chopper has all been shown as bumkum. Even China card has boomeranged. That being the case, Kiyani and TSPA is weaker to carry out a coup against the civilian govt.
(BTW, a shout to Rajiv Lather, who had been cooing coup alerts in after the OBL raid, which were confirmed in the memogate)
Here is my problem with her. Is seems the American Mission in Afghanistan is all about bringing the boys home, not a bad goal in itself but the goal of leaving a stable Afghanistan is left open to trade.
She has realized that Americans have been sitting on Indians whenever there is a terror attack on India plotted by ISI & Co. So she is getting close but not there yet. Nowhere have I heard ‘experts’ accepting that US made 2 big mistakes in Afghanistan, even after 10 years.
1. To rely heavily on TSP as part of the solution.
2. To totally exclude India as part of the solution, at the behest of TSP’s co-operation.
From these 2 blunders American policy has never really recovered.
Kamran Shafi's is in a difficult position (We are deep trouble friends). He put forth ‘deep state’ and non-deep state, which, I guess, kept the discussion focused as all other panelists picked up on it.
He was called out on the ‘moderate silent majority’ in the question, which was limited to alcohol and 6-7 seating for the voting pattern. Muslims Hindu & Christian minorities in TSP kind of unconvincing since TSP is a declared ‘Islamic’ state. I don’t know why he was asked a question on Kashmir.
(My opinion of him is, TSP might not make it, but because of people like him, at least TSPians will know why they went down, rather than blaming India or this or that. He is a marked man in TSP)
Tom Donnelly Too polite, a bit vague but covered a lot of ground particularly the China card.
Eli Lake, 'Mullen was the "Kiyani whisperer" '. I think he have just called Kiyani a dog
. Sweet. US decieved for 8 years is nonsense. As for TSP, we know it has gone after some high value targets but it seems only when it kind of expect to pull something out of its Musharraf to keep US happy, even KSM was caught in a defence neighbourhood.
A good host and lastly no 'deep state' affiliated journos, in this one.