Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 2011

[Sri]

I don't know how much to believe this report. But, if true, then Zardari decided to return only after the call from Kayani. And, the call certainly did not promise him 'protection' which in any case Kayani is not in a position to promise 100%.

SS Sir,

The report is believable. By all Pakistan accounts, it was a chance call when Mr President called Mr PM when El General was having meeting with the PM. The topic as believable rumor has it was revolving around Article 47. Which stipulates that a president may be removed on health / mental grounds, when he ability to function is incapacitated.

The whole plan to send Zardari to UAE was hatched when Zardari's advisers couldn't come up with a statement / stand that he should take in front of parliament about the memogate. It was a trap and Zardari didn't want to say anything till he had a clear understanding on what Army's stand is going to be. Hence the drama. Now that army submitted it's version to SC and didn't name Zardari, he felt a little more confident.

But then almost immediately their were rumors doing rounds about Article 47. It is for this reason, many believe The General went to see the PM. The meeting was 3 hours long with 2 consultation breaks. It is again rumored that Kiyani told the PM that if he failed to apply Article 47 then an application could be filed by PML N or Imran's party in SC.

Miraculously while the meeting was just going to finish President called Gilani when he was still with the General, and happy news of President's return to Pakistan to conveyed. Wazeer e aazam then told Sadar that this is indeed a good news and that Army Chief is with him and why doesn't he give this news personally to him. Hence a 1 minute long talk between the 2 men. Sadar did say 'Hifazat se?' to which general said 'Jee sab hfazat se hai' which the PPP spin masters understood as a security guarantee.

Of course ISPR later put the record straight.

[SSridhar]

^^^ the 24 Ghazhis were beaten by rag tag Afghan army trained by Kufrs? Hain ji??

Absolutely. Time for ISAF to leave then, Afghanistan is in safe hands.

[A_Gupta]

The Left was never a force to be reckoned with, in Pakistan.
Their Bangladesh story:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.as ... 2011_pg3_2

I know that Mukti Bahini, the militant freedom fighters of Bangladesh, also committed many atrocities, but that was a reaction. I had the honour to meet people like Ali Ahmed Khan, a well known journalist whose family members were killed in East Pakistan but he still supported the Bangladesh liberation movement. Late S G M Badruddin, who was editor of the Morning News in Dhaka, had to hide with his Bengali friends for months, lost the only house he made in his life and came back to Pakistan. But his objectivity and progressive outlook regarding the Bangladeshi movement was not dictated by his personal losses. People who can hold enlightened views despite personal suffering deserve to be acknowledged.

[Pranav]

If we accept that the main reason why China keeps TSP is as a tool against India then I don't see China cutting off TSP short of India openly accepting vassalhood and probably not even then since they can never count on India to not turn on them. China's adoption of TSP is deliberate policy, not an inadvertent error from which it needs an honorable exit.

There is no benefit to India to not being open and honest with China and going along with Chinese two-faced nanipulations just to save China's face. They need to be made responsible for their support of TSP and need to be told bluntly they will be made responsible.

It is a deliberate policy all right. The decision of whether to exit that policy or not would depend upon cost-benefit calculations. If exiting involves a loss of face, then that would be a factor. "Face" is important for a dictatorship. India should exercise all options to increase cost of backing TSP and make the exit an easier choice. Options could range from import duties to strategic alliances with nations like Vietnam to use of "soft power". This general approach applies not just to China, but also to others.

[A_Gupta]

Another report
RAW collusion suspected: Probe faults Afghan serviceman for NATO air raid, says report

The probe report – parts of which have been shared with Nato forces in Kabul – states that no US soldier was involved in the airstrike on the Salala check post in the Mohmand Agency that left two dozen border guards dead.

Investigators are convinced that an Afghan National Army (ANA) officer conspired with India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security in prompting the Nato airstrike, an officer privy to the probe told the BBC.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/308841/afgh ... ck-report/

No US Soldier involved in the attack on Salala check post.

Was it the Djinns/ Vaccum Plast/ Sunroof lever that killed them ?

I think you're missing the point. Since no US solider was involved, Pakistan can resume shipments for ISAF (the trucking mafia must really be complaining to GHQ!), provided shipments are not used for the ANA (just like the US provides arms to the Pakistanis provided they are not used against India). It also makes legitimate the Pakistani hostility towards the Afghan government ("we provide the Taliban moral and diplomatic support onlee because the ANA is killing our soldiers", etc.)

[partha]

I think you're missing the point. Since no US solider was involved, Pakistan can resume shipments for ISAF (the trucking mafia must really be complaining to GHQ!), provided shipments are not used for the ANA (just like the US provides arms to the Pakistanis provided they are not used against India). It also makes legitimate the Pakistani hostility towards the Afghan government ("we provide the Taliban moral and diplomatic support onlee because the ANA is killing our soldiers", etc.)

You mean GHQ is complaining to GHQ?

[shiv]

have posted my proposals here

That was the right thing to do.

[SSridhar]

Sri, thanks or the info.

[SSridhar]

Pakistani crisis prompts leader to race home - NYT

In one cable, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. told Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain in March 2009 that Mr. Zardari had told him that the “ISI director and Kayani will take me out.”

In another cable, General Kayani told the United States ambassador at the time, Anne W. Patterson, that he “might, however reluctantly,” pressure Mr. Zardari to resign and presumably leave Pakistan.

Some Pakistani and Western officials said last week that if Mr. Zardari returned, it could be only for a cameo appearance before Dec. 27, the fourth anniversary of the death of Ms. Bhutto, the two-time former prime minister, in a gun and bomb attack in the city of Rawalpindi, near Islamabad.

After that, Mr. Zardari would probably leave for a long — perhaps permanent — convalescence in London or Dubai, the officials said. By early Monday, neither Mr. Zardari nor his aides had signaled how long he would stay.

[Yogi_G]

Implications of Kayani's take over? Good or bad for us? Balance of payments/loan default crisis looming early next year, best thing for Kayani to do to keep up H&D and still deal with soaring economy is Saddamesque-kuwaiti-operation kind of tactic. But whom to pick on? Not India and not Afghanistan and definitely not China. When default happens Americans wont step in and neither will China. Kayani has to ensure people rally around him so that the economic crisis is kept as second priority. Best way to do that is Islam. Except more cleansing and more Islamicization of Pakistan.

I for one am not able to foresee if Kayani's storming into power officially will be good or bad for India.

[Dipanker]

Implications of Kayani's take over? Good or bad for us? Balance of payments/loan default crisis looming early next year, best thing for Kayani to do to keep up H&D and still deal with soaring economy is Saddamesque-kuwaiti-operation kind of tactic. But whom to pick on? Not India and not Afghanistan and definitely not China. When default happens Americans wont step in and neither will China. Kayani has to ensure people rally around him so that the economic crisis is kept as second priority. Best way to do that is Islam. Except more cleansing and more Islamicization of Pakistan.

I for one am not able to foresee if Kayani's storming into power officially will be good or bad for India.

Kiyani was head of ISI during the 26/11 planning stage. Beside, being the COAS, ISI works for him. A Paki COAS is also the Terror-in-Chief.

Kiyani should not be acceptable to India.

[shiv]

Kiyani will not take over. Pakistan is doing well. There is democracy. Nuclear weapons are taking care of security. Most Pakistanis are moderates. Pakistan has one of the youngest populations in the world. Its growth rate has been very high. There is no mismanagement. The army is not going to take over.

It's different if we want to debate on the question "What if Kayani takes over?" as a hypothetical question.

[KLNMurthy]

It is a deliberate policy all right. The decision of whether to exit that policy or not would depend upon cost-benefit calculations. If exiting involves a loss of face, then that would be a factor. "Face" is important for a dictatorship. India should exercise all options to increase cost of backing TSP and make the exit an easier choice. Options could range from import duties to strategic alliances with nations like Vietnam to use of "soft power". This general approach applies not just to China, but also to others.

Coming out of the closet and exposing China's responsibility for TSP would be a big bold aggressive move, almost a showdown. I think we are at apoint where such a move is our only option that keeps our destiny in our own hands.

We have no reason to care about China's face except for calculating what they will do to us if threatened with loss of it. I am guessing they can't really do that much except to bark and attack our faultlines which they are doing with maximum vigor even now per my guess. Getting OT.

[chetak]

Kiyani will not take over. Pakistan is doing well. There is democracy. Nuclear weapons are taking care of security. Most Pakistanis are moderates. Pakistan has one of the youngest populations in the world. Its growth rate has been very high. There is no mismanagement. The army is not going to take over.

It's different if we want to debate on the question "What if Kayani takes over?" as a hypothetical question.

Is it simply a case of TINA, there is no alternative?

[ramana]

Chetak, The US under current economic and politicial situation will not be favorable to a military taekover of TSP by force i.e. overt coup.
However if its presented such that Dus Percenti is exiled while still remaining the head of state it preserves US H&D and defacto coup will be tolerated.

Looks like after memogate some via media is being worked out between US, Army and Duspercenti.

A question about Masour Ijaz? After the revelations of memogate he appears to have acted on behalf of Pakistan in some capacity. Is he registered as a foreign agent under US law?
Why would he be exempt? Recall Fai got jail time for Fai ling to register!

[KLNMurthy]

TSP has done downhill sking with this "investigative report" which is only a leak. They haven't been doing any investigation. State dept maybe with CFair's help got with TSPA and made up a story and took a leak. How many other times before have they have taken this leak-but-deny approach? It is fairly sophisticated. I smell SD's hand and TSPA acquiescence in this.

They have to deny because otherwise abduls will demand war with India. Now abduls will be satisfied with a terrorist hit.

It is bad news for us because it means Hillary faction with Vali Nasr and that paki Mrs. Wiener et al have found a way for TSPA-US nexus to remain alive and go forward. Expect more diplo pressure about will of kashmiri people and tail-wagging by ARoy et al.

Overall what happened is very revealing. Some smart minds at work. We need an aggressive strategy of our own.

Interestingly the story is close enough to what probably actually happened which (ahem) I guessed in this forum. The RAW nonsense is how it is sold to the abduls.

[shiv]

Kiyani will not take over. Pakistan is doing well. There is democracy. Nuclear weapons are taking care of security. Most Pakistanis are moderates. Pakistan has one of the youngest populations in the world. Its growth rate has been very high. There is no mismanagement. The army is not going to take over.

It's different if we want to debate on the question "What if Kayani takes over?" as a hypothetical question.

Is it simply a case of TINA, there is no alternative?

Why are we even asking about alternative governments in Pakistan? Is there any pressing urgency? Or is there some reason for us to believe that the army or some other group in Pakistan feels that they need to take over? Where is the news that suggests that? I have certainly missed it.

[chetak]

{quote="shiv"}Kiyani will not take over. Pakistan is doing well. There is democracy. Nuclear weapons are taking care of security. Most Pakistanis are moderates. Pakistan has one of the youngest populations in the world. Its growth rate has been very high. There is no mismanagement. The army is not going to take over.

It's different if we want to debate on the question "What if Kayani takes over?" as a hypothetical question.

Is it simply a case of TINA, there is no alternative?

Why are we even asking about alternative governments in Pakistan? Is there any pressing urgency? Or is there some reason for us to believe that the army or some other group in Pakistan feels that they need to take over? Where is the news that suggests that? I have certainly missed it.

Just suggesting that there may be no alternative to kayani and hence the consequential damage to the civilian government. Another extension for kayani seems embarrassingly out of the question. The serving paki Chiefs oAS often suffer from the messiah complex.

[arun]

X Posted from the Pakistani Role in Global Terrorism thread.

Citizen of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan arrested in Birmingham on suspicion of attempting to indulge in the Pakistani favoured past-time of Islamic Terrorism:

Pakistani Man Arrested by Counterterrorism Police at British Airport

[RamaY]

Is it simply a case of TINA, there is no alternative?

Why are we even asking about alternative governments in Pakistan? Is there any pressing urgency? Or is there some reason for us to believe that the army or some other group in Pakistan feels that they need to take over? Where is the news that suggests that? I have certainly missed it.

+1.

What difference will be with a new Alternative? Haven't we seen dozens of Govt changes in Pakistan with offered no change of perspective as far as India is concerned?

The only alternatives we care are
- Overt Talibanization of Pakistan with Taliban style Govt.
- Splintered Pakistan or No Pakistan

[shiv]

Just suggesting that there may be no alternative to kayani and hence the consequential damage to the civilian government. Another extension for kayani seems embarrassingly out of the question. The serving paki Chiefs oAS often suffer from the messiah complex.

Chetak - If Zardari can be President even a chimp can be president. The army is still in control. But the army is currently "back seat driving" because they have become unpopular. Every time the Paki army become unpopular, they have receded to back seat riving ant allowed some civilian to take power. But the army is very cautious about which civilians it accepts. It simply eliminates unacceptable politicians and only pliable ones remain. The hatred of the Army for politicians is on record in Pakistan.

They army has always taken over in Pakistan when there is enough trouble in Pakistan to make people think that the politicians are too bad and that the army's control is needed. No such thing is happening in Pakistan now. In fact everything that has happened - bin Laden raid, 24 killed Pakis etc are all seen as the army's incompetence. This would be the worst time for Kiyani to take over. They will continue back seat driving.

[James Blonde]

Kiyani takes over he has no ansers to day in dayout H&D mauling by drones at large and small:
It is better to have duffer buffer of Zardari to blame

[abhijitm]

Pakistan blames “Afghan commander” for Nato attack: BBC

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported that the accused Afghan commander conspired on the instructions of Indian and Afghan intelligence to dismantle Pakistan’s ties with US and Nato.

pakis trying to get out of Raymond Davis like situation they have trapped themselves in.

[arun]

X Posted from the Islamism Thread.

In the Islamic Republic of Pakistan it is apparently Un-Islamic to sport a handle bar mustache.

The story of Tribal Leader Amir Muhammad Afridi's “badge of courage”:

Two years ago local extremists in Afridi's hometown of Bara, a city in Kyber Agency in the country's northwest tribal areas, took umbrage at his mustache, determining it to be un-Islamic.

Then one day in the summer of 2008, members of the Lashkar-e Islam extremist group stormed Afridi's home, took him to their local office, and forcibly trimmed both ends of his 30-centimeter 'stache.

Read it all:

Mustached Pakistani Man Emerges From Hiding, 'Handlebars' And All

[arun]

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan hangs on to yet another dubious distinction, namely that of being the world’s deadliest country for journalists for the second year in a row:

Pakistan Deadliest Country for Journalists in 2011

[chetak]

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan hangs on to yet another dubious distinction, namely that of being the world’s deadliest country for journalists for the second year in a row:

Pakistan Deadliest Country for Journalists in 2011

We could send some of our more deserving journalistic worthies to the land of the pure.

[surinder]

Just suggesting that there may be no alternative to kayani and hence the consequential damage to the civilian government. Another extension for kayani seems embarrassingly out of the question. The serving paki Chiefs oAS often suffer from the messiah complex.

Chetak - If Zardari can be President even a chimp can be president. The army is still in control. But the army is currently "back seat driving" because they have become unpopular. Every time the Paki army become unpopular, they have receded to back seat riving ant allowed some civilian to take power. But the army is very cautious about which civilians it accepts. It simply eliminates unacceptable politicians and only pliable ones remain. The hatred of the Army for politicians is on record in Pakistan.

They army has always taken over in Pakistan when there is enough trouble in Pakistan to make people think that the politicians are too bad and that the army's control is needed. No such thing is happening in Pakistan now. In fact everything that has happened - bin Laden raid, 24 killed Pakis etc are all seen as the army's incompetence. This would be the worst time for Kiyani to take over. They will continue back seat driving.

Army takes over when a few conditions are satisfied simultaneously: army feels that civilian facade is non-pliable and deeply unpopular, and there is a tangible victory that the Army can claim it delivered to TSP after it disposes the civilians off. This time around, it is not clear if Kayani has the desire. If the Army took over overtly then what exactly can they do to "deliver". On the contrary, Army needs the civilan facade badly to cover up the nasty GUBO's it has been doing (OBL, 24 TPIAAN's, drones, etc.). The army is short on options.

No army take over this time. Max they will do is that the civilian facade my see a change.

[Lalmohan]

^^^ a scapegoat will have to be found (e.g. zardari) and a new helmsman found...

[ramana]

In line with Shiv's reasoning about how TSPA has it smug : Money from US and H&D from the TSP momeen, was Abbotabad a thank you gift for Kiyanahi's extension? IOW he agreed to gift that raid in return for his own extension?

He is no general. He is a trader just like the SDRE!

[abhishek_sharma]

Talking Tough to Pakistan: How to End Islamabad's Defiance

[Prem]

http://pn.com.pk/details_en.php?nid=20726
Zardari may leave for London after 27th: NY Times

NEW YORK: The New York Times said on Monday that President Asif Ali Zardari may have come back to Pakistan only for a "cameo appearance” for the death anniversary (Dec 27) of Benazir Bhutto and "then go on permanently to London or Dubai".

[Prem]

US daily talks of ‘cameo appearance’
http://www.dawn.com/2011/12/20/us-daily ... rance.html
(London Ka Bandan Na Toote)

NEW YORK: The New York Times said on Monday that President Asif Ali Zardari may have come back to Pakistan only for a “cameo appearance” for the death anniversary (Dec 27) of Benazir Bhutto and “then go on permanently to London or Dubai”.In a report on the political situation in Pakistan, the Times quoted some Pakistani and western officials as saying that Mr Zardari’s return could be only for a cameo appearance before Dec 27, the fourth death anniversary of Ms Bhutto.“After that, Mr Zardari will probably leave for a long — perhaps permanent — convalescence in London or Dubai, the officials said. By early Monday, neither Mr Zardari nor his aides had signalled how long he would stay,” the NYT said.The newspaper noted “pushed by the army, a Supreme Court hearing will investigate whether Mr Zardari’s government was behind an unsigned memorandum that surfaced in October, purportedly asking the Obama administration’s help to curb the military’s influence and avert a possible coup in the wake of the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden in May”.

[arun]

S.M. Hali rants in the paranoid Nation:

Indian allegations against Pakistan

[KLNMurthy]

S.M. Hali rants in the paranoid Nation:

Indian allegations against Pakistan

Pakis are amazing people. From top to bottom, all pakis are obsessed with image, no interest in substance at all.

[SBajwa]

KLNMurthy Saab!! That's what Mughals were doing in their end days in 1740s when their writ was from Delhi to Palam and that too by their own kith. While Bahadur shah was living in fantasies of having his Hindustan back.

[SSridhar]

It hardly matters to India as to who rules Pakistan officially. Unofficially, it is always the PA that takes decisions vis-a-vis India. The democratic government acts as a post-office relaying decisions taken by the PA to the GoI.

[Altair]

The democratic government acts as a post-office relaying decisions taken by the PA to the GoI.

Brilliant. No body can sum up Pakistani politics in one single line like you did.
GoI is always debating who the post master is and if the Post Master General is a man of peace or not blah blah..WTF!

[sum]

What is the connection between Maldives, Christmas and Islamist riots? On word : TSP

Maldives sees Pakistan's hand in brewing trouble

As Christmas draws near, The Maldives is bracing for another showdown between the traditional, democratic Maldivian Islamists and those who hold extreme views on Islam.

And, according to a top source, The Maldives believes there is Pakistani money helping the extremists.

Last Christmas, trouble erupted after a restaurant decorated itself for Christmas. Under Maldivian law, no religion barring Islam can be publicly practised. The buntings were pulled down in no time but as news spread, protesters filed into the capital, Male, and ended up fighting pitched battles with the police. Tourism during the season took a serious knock after the protests.

The religious extremists, growing in numbers despite international efforts to preserve the Maldivian brand of tolerant Islam, have called for a protest on December 23. The Opposition has backed the protests. One official told The Hindu that the protesters had received support from both Pakistan and the former Maldivian President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

Against the backdrop of religious protests over the past few weeks, and the vandalism of SAARC monuments, the government has made it clear that it will stand up to the attempts to push the country into the hands of fanatics.

Ahead of the religious protest, President Mohamed Nasheed defended Islam as practised in the Maldives. In his weekly radio address on Friday, Mr. Nasheed said “in the name of protecting Islam, the real call of these religious protestors is to initiate the implementation of Islamic penalties such as stoning, amputations and execution in the Maldives.”

Speaking at a rally on Saturday, the President also defended traditional cultural practices such as playing and listening to music. He also defended the role of women in society, noting that “women have been in the Maldivian workforce as long as men.”

The President said political parties must publicly state which form of Islam they support, “the Islam we have been practicing in this country for several hundred years… or a new faction of Islam.” The President said he wanted the traditional version of Islam to continue to be practised in the Maldives.

[Airavat]

U.S. Pauses Airstrikes in Pakistan

The 33-day pause is the longest since the program began in 2004, according to the Long War Journal, a website that tracks the strikes. Javed Ashraf Qazi, the defense committee chief, said he believed the pause in attacks was because the U.S. "does not want to aggravate the situation any further." Still, Mr. Qazai, a former army general who gets high-level briefings because of his position on the committee, said he believed that if the United States had a "high-level" target in its sights then, "I think they would go ahead" and launch a strike .

There have been at least two other pauses in the drone program that have coincided with tense tie between Islamabad and Pakistan, including earlier this year when Pakistan was detaining CIA contractor Raymond Davis after he killed two people in the eastern city of Lahore.

[ramana]

SSridhar, Please tweet and spread the message.