Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): 06 Dec 2011

[merlin]

It will still leave the impression that the jernails had to rely on a 3rd party to settle the score.

They have already released a statement that if called upon the court to enforce their judgement, they will do so. So what will happen is that the SC will order groper and zardari to step down and conduct elections. Obviously they will refuse. Then they will call upon the army to uphold the constitution, as Army had sworn to Allah to do so. Army will say, Allah? then we have no choice. Will issue an ultimatum. Civvies will refuse. Then they will yell AoA!!! and motor up with the 111 Brigade to the President's house.

Army's H&D saved. Coup also done by SC orders. Interim government will organize elections and stuff ballots to bring IK to power.

The only fly in the ointment is the economy. Still left to be seen where the Army will bring the money from. OTOH, if the civvies survive this attempt, they will go to Massa and say "Abduls are angry that there is no electricity. In the interests of democracy, please give us baksheesh"

One way or the other, somebody is paying the Pakis soon.

What a perfect script

[rajanb]

The postscript to that is IK will go down in history for his no-balls.

[pankajs]

While you may be right about the sequence of events, let me add another element to it.

Instead of letting the SC set the tone, they will take things to the brink and at the last moment give in and call for fresh elections. They will then appear to give in to the SC and not the Army. Also because the government was not struck down by the court, the Army's role will be limited and the interim government will still be in the control of PPP during elections.

They will then claim victimization by the whole world (Army, Judiciary and the opposition). They will still have a chance of beating the Army at this game.

[rajanb]

While you may be right about the sequence of events, let me add another element to it.

Instead of letting the SC set the tone, they will take things to the brink and at the last moment give in and call for fresh elections. They will then appear to give in to the SC and not the Army. Also because the government was not struck down by the court, the Army's role will be limited and the interim government will still be in the control of PPP during elections.

They will then claim victimization by the whole world (Army, Judiciary and the opposition). They will still have a chance of beating the Army at this game.

One way the civvies can strike back is to petition the SC to investigate the death of the journalist Saleem Shahzad? I think the civvies have enough to create a stand off, if they have the guts.

[Virupaksha]

rajanb,

The civvies cannot take such a step. They are in perpetual fear of the sunroof lever.

[pankajs]

China the new medium for Pak politics

But it is possible the message being given was not to General Kayani but to the Chinese. "There was a scare in the PM office that Kayani had gone to China to take the Chinese leadership into confidnece before staging some sort of coup or change of guard," comments analyst Najam Sethi. Possibly that is what prompted the Pakistan PM to give his own message through the Chinese media.

China, seemingly embarrassed at being the intermediary in a political crisis in its closest ally, blacked out the Gilani interview to People’s Daily Online for its domestic audience.

The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson refused to respond to a question on how Beijing perceives the sudden sacking of the Pakistani defence secretary.

[kmkraoind]

^. China seems to between the cro$$fire of its concubine and its official wife. will it control the concubine or ditch the old wife for a new wife

[SSridhar]

From 'This Day That Age' section of The Hindu dated Jan. 13, 1962

Dispute over Kashmir

The Pakistani Government expects the forthcoming Kashmir debate in the U.N. to become a touchstone for future Pakistani relations with the U.S. Informed Karachi quarters do not exclude the possibility that Pakistan might leave the South-East Asian Treaty Organisation in case of inadequate U.S. support for Pakistan in the Kashmir conflict with India.

But, SEATO never had anything to do with Kashmir as the US & Pakistan led the whole world to believe !

[SSridhar]

However they have to address the insult from the civves. Its one thing to be slapped by the US in Abortabad. They can rationalize it as being faced superior force. The PNS Mehran raid by fundoos is rationalized as letting off steam to keep their non state actors still around. But to be slapped by nikammah ZeeGees is too much.

The ZeeGees have a weak point. They both are subject to Supreme Court strictures. So if the jeranils let the law taek its course then the ZeeGees will be in trouble and have to call for elections which can be tailored to deliver their own puppet.

So lets see how the story unravels.

Ramana, the 'insults' by the civvies are merely 'technical' (not taking Government's permission in filing the affidavit in the SC etc) whereas the charges against the civvies are treasonous. The masses won't understand the implications of the 'technical' issues whereas H&D, price rise, corruption would easily overwhelm the civvies. The charge of the PPP light brigade against the heavy armour of the PA will end up with the charges sticking to the PPP and none to the PA. Besides, there is the stinging 'dishonesty' tag hanging over Gilani & Zardari awarded by the Supreme Court. More 'unpleasant consequences' are in store for the PPP government and the President in the next few days from the Supreme Court in the NRO case. They have already said two days back that either the NRO cases are genuinely reopened immediately or PPP seek a fresh mandate from the people. Also in the line is the Memogate issue which the Supreme Court is determined to proceed with and conclude to the satisfaction of the PA. The petitioner in the Memogate case, Nawaz Sharif, has indirectly helped his nemesis, the PA. Moreover, the GoP has to shortly raise electricity charges etc. in order to get the last tranche of the IMF loan which they badly need. We can expect riots, even instigated by the only important stakeholder in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

The US has lost all leverage, at least for now. The Chinese have had a long session at the highest level with the PA COAS just last week. They have no obligation to support a civilian dispensation in Pakistan. They are secure that a friendless Pakistan would only turn even more to China in the coming months and years. They have a bigger stake with the PA than with the civvies.

All in all, the 'civvies' goose is well and truly cooked. It is in fact a Peking Duck.

[Venkarl]

Before Anujan's script becomes a reality, what if an eye-yes-eye team on the payroll of see-eye-yay does a hit job on Zarru or Gillu? Will it not bring more defamation to TSPA's and ISI's reputation and a global endorsement to it? I mean this is a precious opportunity which doesn't come every now and then.

[pankajs]

Clash kills six in northwest Pakistan

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Six people were killed in an overnight clash between more than a hundred Islamist militants and security forces in Pakistan's northwestern Peshawar city, police said on Friday.

Police and paramilitary troops retaliated after the militants attacked a checkpoint on the outskirts of the city, leaving three militants and three security officials dead.

[SSridhar]

I think both Anujan and pankajs have sketched out likely scenarios. I also believe that PRC would play a more crucial role this time around rather than the traditional mediators in the internal affairs of Pakistan. That would be a departure.

[pankajs]

There is a 3rd scenario, however unlikely.

What if after a little drama, the government cuts a deal with the judiciary and leaves the army out in the cold. A little give and take short of bringing down the government and in the process saving the court's H&D. Perhaps a partial implementation on NRO to buy time till the Senate elections are over. A majority in the Senate will strengthen PPP's hand.

[Virupaksha]

There is a 3rd scenario, however unlikely.

What if after a little drama, the government cuts a deal with the judiciary and leaves the army out in the cold. A little give and take short of bringing down the government and in the process saving the court's H&D. Perhaps a partial implementation on NRO to buy time till the Senate elections are over. A majority in the Senate will strengthen PPP's hand.

What can the civvies give to the judiciary?

[JE Menon]

Anujan, that was utterly brilliant.

[pankajs]

A government has a lot of resources at its disposal. Look at Indian politicians trading in favors to keep their kursi.

[RajeshA]

The Chinese have had a long session at the highest level with the PA COAS just last week. They have no obligation to support a civilian dispensation in Pakistan. They are secure that a friendless Pakistan would only turn even more to China in the coming months and years. They have a bigger stake with the PA than with the civvies.

All in all, the 'civvies' goose is well and truly cooked. It is in fact a Peking Duck.

I guess PPP efforts at appeasing the Chinese may not have paid! All that mandatory education of Mandarin in all schools in Sindh after 6th class did nothing to buy any Chinese sympathy.

For China it however pays to keep somebody else doling out the cash to TSPA. If China intervenes then China owns Pakistan, and if they own Pakistan, they will have to pay the whore.

[pankajs]

Children attacked, church wrecked for disturbing prayers with carols

KARACHI: A group of people praying in a mosque were so irked by the voices of children singing carols at a nearby church that they decided to silence them—by attacking their house of worship.

[arunsrinivasan]

n00b question, why is the Judiciary support the Army? Is it just a case of justice is blind, which I find hard to believe.

[Kashi]

Siachen and water

UN, among other bodies, has made rather frightening (frightening for whom?) predictions that Pakistan will, within a few years be a country desperately short of water, with fewer and fewer unpolluted resources left to meet the drinking water needs of people.

...

Islamabad-based Sustainable Policy Development Institute [..] has quoted experts from India (which experts?), who at conferences held at various capitals around the world, have made a series of suggestions to improve the volume of water in the Indus. The key suggestion in this regard involves the demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier and also other glacial areas surrounding it. Battles for control of the strategically significant area have been fought intermittently between Pakistan and India since 1984. Experts believe (in other words the TSPA only), troop presence hampers water flow downstream into rivers and contributes to the shortage crisis.

A suggestion for the setting up of an Indus Water Commission, involving representatives from both countries, has also been put forward by the experts. These possible measures all need to be considered. The demilitarisation of Siachen would also ease tensions between the two nations and killing several birds with one stone is always a good idea.

Pakhanis obsessed with Siachen and stone..nothing unusual.

[ArmenT]

16 Pakistan soldiers killed
For those wondering, this incident does NOT involve the National Bird, but it involves the Baloch.

[Lalmohan]

700,000 hindu soldiers are sitting on the siachen glacier preventing its flow into the indus
mind you, with so many of them there, isnt the glacier melting?

[Aditya_V]

700,000 hindu soldiers are shitting and urinating on the siachen glacier preventing its flow into the indus
mind you, with so many of them there, isnt the glacier melting?

Small correction to your post. The increase urea and manure is good for Pakjab's agricultural output.

[pankajs]

US confident about safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons

WASHINGTON: The Obama Administration has exuded confidence about the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons in the wake of political turmoil inside the country.

"We are confident that all of these issues are managed well," Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher told Washington-based Defence Writers Group yesterday.

"The administration is very clear that we work very closely with our Pakistani allies. At their requests and at our offering we work closely on issues of nuclear security," Tauscher said in response to a question on the security of nuclear weapons in Pakistan.

The Under Secretary said that safety and security of nuclear weapons and materials is an issue of concern for global leaders.

"This is the reason why the (US) President (Barack) Obama had such a success (on Nuclear Security Summit)," she said adding that the next one is being scheduled for March in Seoul.

[RSoami]

700,000 hindu soldiers are shitting and urinating on the siachen glacier preventing its flow into the indus
mind you, with so many of them there, isnt the glacier melting?

Small correction to your post. The increase urea and manure is good for Pakjab's agricultural output.

Very bad for H&D though.. What with eating and drinking Kuffr (by)products...
Siachen is a matter of H&D onlee...

[SSridhar]

There is a 3rd scenario, however unlikely.

What if after a little drama, the government cuts a deal with the judiciary and leaves the army out in the cold. A little give and take short of bringing down the government and in the process saving the court's H&D.

n00b question, why is the Judiciary support the Army? Is it just a case of justice is blind, which I find hard to believe.

I suspect there is a common answer for both the above.

The judiciary (read, Iftikhar Chaudhry saheb) is extremely annoyed with Zardari & Co for delaying his re-induction as the CJP after democracy was restored. Ultimately, it took the intervention of the military (ironically though) and the US to get back his position. Zardari was very reluctant to give Iftikhar saheb his gaddi back. That rankles. Zardari saheb has been adding insult to the CJP's injury by repeatedly claiming immunity and spurning all SC summons in various cases. It has gone to subterfuge and extraordinary lengths to blunt the cases even. The judiciary may not particularly be favouring the PA, but it certainly does not want the present ruling clique to continue in power. There, the interests of the judiciary and the pa converge.

@Pankajs, in addition, the court's H&D is not at all at stake. They will, OTOH, enhance their prestige if they are seen to act decisively in disposing off the PPP government and the President while keeping the PA at bay. The PPP's electorate has shrunk sizeably since the last election (where sympathy played a significant part). The Court has also said very clearly that there is no legal mechanism for the PA to assume power. So, it is seen as acting impartially.

[pankajs]

Pakistan: Is A Judicial Coup in the Offing?

The main player that would determine the future scenario is Pakistan’s Supreme Court, although its actions in the recent past have not been above board. The timing of the crisis ostensibly is the forthcoming senate election scheduled in March, which would allow the PPP to win a majority of seats and thus give it an important say in matters of state till 2015. The Army and other political actors do not want this; hence their willing participation in efforts to topple the government through the judiciary and force an early election.

All the parties in this game are hardening their positions keeping their respective constituency in mind. While the PML-N is aiming at early elections, the Army wants to somehow delay the Senate election, which will provide the PPP with a majority given the electoral calculations. The judiciary has emerged as a decisive player that would determine the future. The Government has been trying to blunt the judiciary by taking refuge under Presidential immunity. The villain in this entire game for whose blood the Army and the judiciary as well as the opposition are gunning is President Zardari who until now has played his part of the game cleverly. Zardari realizes that even though the PPP government is unpopular, people do not have an appetite for another military coup. Therefore, he is hedging his bets to muddle through and conduct the Senate elections in time. Considering the fact that it would be difficult for the Government to complete its five year term, he is perhaps preparing for an early election around September-October this year.

[shyamd]

Wary, India keeps a close eye on Pakistan

Even as it keeps a close eye on the military-civilian government tussle in Pakistan, India is concerned about the possible fallout, especially the endgame in Afghanistan and the peace-process getting the desired push from Islamabad.
While instability in neighbourhood can naturally be Coup fears in Pak as govt, army battle it out in open
a cause of concern for India, it is ready to deal with whoever is in power in Pakistan to normalise ties. New Delhi is worried that about the affect Pakistan’s domestic power tussle will have on the endgame in Afghanistan.
With the US-Pakistan friction also remaining unresolved, the Afghanistan situation can worsen. “Whatever happens in Afghanistan has a national security implications for India,” said a government official.

Officials also feel when a government is plagued with a host of issues such as power struggles “of this scale” it will not be able to give an all-out push to the peace process.

“We have been told that Pakistan army is on board for the peace process. All stake-holders are on board for the normalisation of ties with India,” quipped a source.

“We are watching the developments. We cannot say who should be in power in Pakistan. Though we prefer a democratic government in Pakistan, we have been dealing with whoever is in power in Pakistan. That’s how it has been and how it will be. We deal with the government of Pakistan,” a senior official said.

Responding to a question on the civilian-military tussle in Pakistan, foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai had said in January, “India has had a chequered history in dealing with Pakistan in the past. Be that as it may, we can choose friends but you can’t choose neighbours.”

He had also said, “Whether you like it or you don’t like it, you need to find a way to get along and manage a normal relationship irrespective of who is in government in Pakistan.”

A very diplomatic thing to say. MEA Source are always nice rather than honest/straight talkers.

[uddu]

Gilani made a call to Aunty complaining that he will be in soup because of soup boys trying a coup.
Heard that Gilani is singing Why this Kolaveri Kolaveri Kolaveri da to Kiyani

[Altair]

USS Carl Vinson, the USS John Stennis along with two American infantry brigades are in Kuwait

[CRamS]

US confident about safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons

WASHINGTON: The Obama Administration has exuded confidence about the safety and security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons in the wake of political turmoil inside the country.

It depends on the definition of "safety" from US's POV . And once that definition of safety is impressed upon TSPA, TSPA would have no qualms letting US help in the "safety". So everybody is "safe", except of course, you guessed it, us SDREs.

[Muppalla]

and our dear MMS want to talk to this unstable Pakistan. He goes extra length with sharm-el-shake and other stuff. Even to do sell off there is no buyer in TSP.

[Muppalla]

I think US wants to keep the system alive. Are they afraid that if kiyani goes someone more radical will come in? ISI and TSPA had a purge to remove extremist elements many times.
Tthis is a historic opportunity to weaken TSPA, but US said no! Riyad told gropr and zardari to leave army alone.

TSP is a desperate need for the US. The only institution(handle) that can be used effectively is TSPA. US will only try to accomadate and change the TSPA but will never ditch it.

[uddu]

Atleast this opportunity must be used to defang Pakistan of nuclear weapons.

[Altair]

and our dear MMS want to talk to this unstable Pakistan. He goes extra length with sharm-el-shake and other stuff. Even to do sell off there is no buyer in TSP.

This is where chankian thought crops up.
1. Does MMS makes such "extra length deals" realizing there is no one to accept his "deals" and he gets to become a nubile peache prize??
OR
2. Are we just lucky enough to escape his brainless deals with pakis?

[pankajs]

None of the above. It is the paki tactical brilliance that saves the day for us.

[uddu]

So finally as predicted in BR Aman ki Asha has become Aman ki Tamasha
A video from Joo tube

[Muppalla]

This is where chankian thought crops up.
1. Does MMS makes such "extra length deals" realizing there is no one to accept his "deals" and he gets to become a nubile peache prize??
OR
2. Are we just lucky enough to escape his brainless deals with pakis?

MMS does whatever US asks him to do. I am not saying he has sold out to US. Irrespective of any analysis and all this new fancy theory that TSP only friend is China, I still think TSP's best friend is Uncle and uncle onlee. TSP survives only because of uncle and China just fishes some good fish in uncle's waters and nothing more.

It is uncle's stabilizing steps that MMS implements with respect to Pakistan. If India wants Uncle's friendship there are few non-negotiables from uncle and one of the important non-negotiables is to help Pakistan survive and thrive. MMS implements that realpolitik and one of the fundamental reason for him to be an Indian PM for two terms. Otherwise he would have gone PVNR or ABV route.

If there needs a terror attack in India so that TSPA holds on then India has to take it and that is an order from uncle. It is the choice that India has made for itself.

But Pakistan is unstable because uncle's strategy of stabilizing it by hook or crook is not working.

[ranjbe]

GilaNahin calls UK ambassador begging for support (WP):
Officials: Pakistani PM called UK government, fearing possible army coup

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asi ... ml?hpid=z3

[SSridhar]

GilaNahin calls UK ambassador begging for support (WP):
Officials: Pakistani PM called UK government, fearing possible army coup

Oh, no.This would now start 'Phonegate' similar to 'Memogate'. Most probably, this is an ISI plant to 'fix' Gilani. Zardari is already fixed in the Memogate. Gilani has been jumping up and down lately and needed to be fixed too. Has Shuja Pasha visited London yet secretly to investigate the matter and submit a report to Kayani ?