1) Why would Pakjabi Army ever think of reducing its own area of operational freedom (whole of Pakistan) by allowing some regions to split from Pakistan?shiv wrote:Here are my views and why I currently support the intact Pakistan model.
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If the Pakjabi army and the US retain their current relationship they can pretty much guide the shape of those areas even if some areas are split away. A United Pakjab (90 million plus) controlling Karachi and allied with the USA would be a very dangerous thing for anyone else in the area. A Pakjabi army that "cedes" Gilgit to China could "cede" parts of Baluchistan near the Iran border to the USA and then earn the US's eternal gratitude and support against India.
2) And if they would not allow it, why would the Pakjabi Army be "co-operating" with USA in guiding the shape of those areas?
So the scenario doesn't make sense!
3) The question arises whether those regions can become independent without US approval! My answer is no!
Nations have two aspects - control and outside-recognition. Unlike Bangladesh which was on the other side of the Subcontinent, and Pakjabis had no hope of reversing their loss of control, in Baluchistan this is not the case. Pakjabi Army even if it loses de-facto control on the ground, can walk in anytime again in the future. So loss of control is temporary, and in areas of Pakistan, Pakjabi Army is often willing to cede control on the ground - simply because they know they can retake control anytime they need it.
As regaining control in Bangladesh was impossible, USA agreed to recognition of Bangladesh even if it was against its will and terms of its alliance with Pakistanis. That scenario cannot be repeated in Baluchistan.
If USA does not agree to independence of Baluchistan, then any declaration of Independence would go unrecognized in Europe, North America, Oceania, China and possibly the whole Ummah also (except say for Oman). And at anytime in the future Pakjabi Army can move in again.
So USA will have to be on board with this.
And if USA is on board and helps in realizing Baluchistan's Independence, and Pakjabi Army is dead set against loss of control over its areas, how can one speak of cooperation between the two countries in shaping the split?!!!!!
That is not simply status-quo GoI policy, but it is jumbled thinking in the GoI and takes one back to the square one in analyzing India's options with Pakistan.shiv wrote:An intact Pakistan where we attempt to pacify Pakjab and protect the concept of Pakistan for the sake of historic unity of the subcontinent can be pulled off if the cards are played well. Baluchis and Pashtuns can get their due as Pakistan is pacified. I want india to have a reduced threat from the Pakjabi army which is the main ally of the USA. I want India to have land access to Baluchistan, Iran and Afghanistan via Pakjab. US meddling and ability to meddle needs to be reduced, not increased. Indians do not need to plan for something that benefits the US more and India less in the name of Baluchi freedom.
The Truth is: Pakjabis would come to detente, and eventually to an entente with India, when all other avenues have been closed! We are their last choice!
There is per se nothing wrong with dealing with Pakjabis. But one would get only trickery, play for time and taqiyyah from them if they see some remote chance of going it alone!
The only way to get Pakjabis eating out of our hands, is if all other avenues of power are taken away from them. That means they lose access to Central Asia except through hostile Pushtunistan and Baluchistan. That means access to the sea only through a hostile India-friendly Sindh. That means access to China only through Gilgit-Baltistan which is under Indian control. De-facto Pakjab becomes a land-locked island dependent on sympathy from hostile neighbors and less-than-hostile India.
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