India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR

[shyamd]

Classic coup attempt by Gayoom. Problem is, both sides are pro India. But looks like the Army has stayed pro Nasheed, but if Nasheed continued things could have changed and India would have lost an ally.

Maldives President resigns amid protests

R.K.RADHAKRISHNAN
SHARE · PRINT · T+

AP Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed announces his resignation in Male, Maldives on Tuesday.

In a dramatic development, Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed announced his resignation over television on Tuesday. Vice President Dr.Waheed will hold reigns till a new arrangement is made. A new arrangement is expected to be in place over the next few days.

In a message to the people, Dr.Waheed said: “During this dangerous situation facing the nation it is my duty to say a few words. I support the peaceful efforts of a large number of Maldivians trying to protect the Maldives constitution and religion. At this time I call upon all the institutions especially law enforcement agencies (the military) to uphold the constitution and the laws of the country. Refrain from obeying unconstitutional and illegal instructions. During this difficult time no chance should be given to anyone trying to hurt the people of our country or damage their property, especially no room should be afforded to those who would damage news agencies and media. I am saddened that VTV and other places in Male’ have been attacked. I call on those who are involved in this to immediately cease all such activities. As your Vice President I am prepared to do anything possible to overcome this situation.”

According to residents in Male, there have been pitched battles between police and the military for the past few days. The police were fewer in number, and the country was going nowhere, one of them, a professional resident in Male said. The situation is peaceful now with the Army patrolling the streets, he added.

Earlier in the day about 50 police personnel took control of the state broadcaster in the capital, Male. They had earlier refused to break up a demonstration of opposition supporters. The Army stepped in and reportedly used teargas to break up a demonstration by supporters of ex-President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

Tensions have been on the rise since last November since the SAARC summit where monuments of all participating nations were put up. The Opposition said this was an attempt to bring in other religions. The Pakistani monument, which had Buddhist drawings at its pedestal, was among the first ones to be vandalised.

The scene shifted to Male, with the Opposition accusing Mr.Nasheed of being a moderate islamist who wanted to allow entry of other religions. It did not help that the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillai, in her speech at The Majlis, referred to flogging ass barbaric and espoused the cause of women’s rights. Again, the opposition flocked to Male.

Male held on because Mr.Nasheed’s support base was mainly in the two cities – Male and Addu. Also, Mr.Nasheed and his team have been at pains to explain that the Opposition’s charges were baseless. Apart from speaking to people, the team went on a slander campaign against the Opposition. The better equipped Opposition was up to the challenge. It responded with a series of charges and behind the scenes moves, including re-activating its people within the government machinery.

Tensions again escalated after the Army arrested a criminal court judge last month. With this arrest, the Nasheed regime alienated the entire judiciary, and lawyers. They too joined in the protests.

There is also a sub-plot in the new drama unfolding in The Maldives. The new outfit floated by the former President Gayoom, PPM, is engaged in a bitter battle with the party he founded, DRP. PPM has been the most active in the recent months, and has been thinking of innovative ways of getting support from across the islands. PPM representatives also have fanned across to Colombo and New Delhi. In Colombo, President Mahinda Rajapaksa refused to grant an audience, according to PPM sources.

Mr.Nasheed has had a hard time since he came to power in 2008. He headed the first democratically-elected government, but did not have adequate support in The Majlis, leading to an impasse on most issues of governance. Mr.Nasheed had had the staunch support of both Colombo and New Delhi so far.

Mr. Gayoom’s supporters are sore that they have been given the cold shoulder by both India and Sri Lanka. They told The Hindu that it would a fallacy for both countries to keep putting all the eggs in the MDP basket.

[shyamd]

Indian Navy can deploy at short notice and MEA says "extremist elements weren't involved in the ouster and the current situation is not anti-Indian" This was also not a coup per MEA. Link

If you ask me, this was a coup.

Exclusive: Cops forced Nasheed to quit presidency, says family
G Pramod Kumar Feb 7, 2012

Political unrest in Maldives, President Nasheed resigns

Sources close to Nasheed’s family told Firstpost that the president was forced to resign today, by the mutineering Police. He had essentially lost control of the country’s armed forces.

When he went to the Presidential office today, he was taken to the police station and was asked to resign or go into custody. He had no other option but to resign.

Former Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed. AP
The source said that at the moment he is “packing up” to leave the presidential palace. His family is concerned about his safety although he spoke to them and assured that he is safe and will be home later tonight.

The ascendance of the present vice president to presidentship was part of a deal that former president Mammon Abdul Gayoom had brokered with Nasheed’s party colleagues. The present unrest that led to Nasheed’s ouster has been simmering in the island nation ever since he came to power. The family sources also said his stepping down is a victory for the hardliners.

Family sources also said that they suspect that there would be pressure on him and his family to leave the country, but in all probability he would not leave. He has a tough political past of several rounds of imprisonment, torture and criminal cases.

He is also a recipient of several international awards, a mascot of the international movement against global warming and a darling of the international media.

Interestingly, India, which had been sympathetic to both Gayoom and Nasheed took a non-partisan stand on his resignation. Sources close to Nasheed said India’s strategic interest, which also saw the construction of an airport by an Indian conglomerate in the island, will ensure that they don’t oppose this coup.

[chaanakya]

I dont know if anyone remembers but Shankar had worked out somewhat similar scenario in Maldives in Scenario thread.

[shyamd]

GMR Group got the airport contract and appears to be one of the central issues. GMR hiked airline fees by 50%, so major airlines like Sri Lankan and emirates pulled out, followed suit by Qatar Airways and a few others.

Possible allegations of corruption and heavy handedness by the Police and Army to put down the protestors. Now people say they want Gayoom back because he represented stability.

[devesh]

yes, MEA will also come up with a report that Pakis' main problem is "economic backwardness" caused by intense competition form India. MEA and GoI will not say the word Islamist even if it's written all over the face of an event...

[nawabs]

India guides Maldives shift
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120208/j ... 107947.jsp

The Maldives has eased “the Obama of the East” out of its helm and appointed a less controversial President, scattering words like “coup” and “mutiny” in the sub-continental air but masking the intense churn that prompted India to “guide” the transition.

Mohamed Nasheed, the first democratically elected President of the Maldives, announced his resignation over television today. The 44-year-old Nasheed, hailed by the West as the hero of the Copenhagen climate talks and the “Obama of the East” for his oratory, handed charge to Vice-President Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik.

The Nasheed camp suggested that he was ousted in a coup or a police mutiny — an impression that gathered ground because policemen were seen clashing with soldiers — but the new administration dismissed such suggestions.

The Indian Ocean archipelago is just an hour away from India’s southern tip and houses around 30,000 Indians. The foreign ministry said in Delhi that all Indians were safe.

Nasheed quit office after New Delhi brokered a deal among the Maldivian political parties to save that country’s nascent democracy.

Ronen Sen, the former diplomat who played a crucial role in 1988 when India launched an operation to quell a coup in the Maldives, termed Nasheed’s decision “statesmanlike as it has prevented violence”.

Sen said New Delhi should continue watching the developments in the Maldives as “India has an important stake in this relationship”.

At the root of the crisis was a clash between a hardline political Islam and a moderate version in the Sunni-majority country. Nasheed represented the moderate and modern side but the pace of the reforms he proposed was considered too fast — a perception that was exploited by India’s friend and former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s religious right-wing party.

Tossed into this cauldron were manoeuvres by other foreign powers, including China and Saudi Arabia, and resentment over permission for Israeli planes to land in the tourist paradise that has invented ways to get around the strict religious code. However, there is little yet to suggest that China or Saudi Arabia had any hand in the current upheaval in the Maldives.

The flashpoint was related to Pakistan but not for the usual reasons. The hawks found fault with a monument Pakistan erected to showcase its pluralistic heritage in the Maldives on the occasion of the 17th Saarc summit in November.

All Saarc-member countries, including India, had built such monuments at Addu City. But protesters targeted Pakistan’s edifice — a pillar that depicted the cultural stages that Pakistan underwent from the Harappan and Buddhist past to its Islamic heritage before being proclaimed an Islamic Republic. Pakistan was only trying to portray its multi-cultural heritage but it inflamed passions among some sections.

India’s monument, depicting an Asokan pillar, barely metres from that of Pakistan was spared by protesters who hit the streets in the last week of December. The party of Gayoom, who ruled for 30 years without much of a challenge, was at the forefront of the protests.

When the protesters defaced the Pakistan structure and their arrests were ordered by President Nasheed, a judge refused to issue the directive and released an Opposition figure. In a mis-step, Nasheed ordered the army to arrest the judge, Abdulla Mohamed.

In one single stroke, Nasheed transformed a political stand-off with religious overtones into an impasse between his government and the judiciary, which prompted many of his supporters to desert him.

The protests found resonance within the government as well with Saarc general-secretary Fathimath Dhiyana Saeed resigning and joining the protesters along with her husband.

The situation worsened when many police personnel refused to follow orders to crack down on protesters. Today, a large number of police personnel joined the protests, changing the complexion of the strife.

The police action raised the spectre of a revolt that India feared could lead to a repeat of the coup the Maldives witnessed in 1988. Rajiv Gandhi, the then Prime Minister, had then sent the Indian armed forces to quell the coup that Sri Lanka-based Tamil mercenaries had allegedly engineered.

This week, Opposition parties insisted that the only acceptable compromise was for Nasheed to step down. A compromise, in which the Indian high commission in Male played a pivotal role, was worked out to replace Nasheed with Waheed.

Official sources said India was “very hesitant” to interfere and did not do anything other than “guide” the parties to resolve the situation peacefully and within the ambit of the Maldivian Constitution.

The Stanford-educated Waheed, known as the first person to be shown on television in the Maldives when broadcast began in 1978, is expected to head a national coalition government to govern the country till the elections due next year.

The official sources said Waheed taking over the presidency was in no way evidence of fundamentalist political parties having won the round. “Waheed was Nasheed’s running mate. He has strong administrative and political credentials. This is an internal issue and not a security issue for India,” said an official.

The transition appeared peaceful till this late this evening. But Nasheed’s brother claimed that the former President was under house arrest. BBC quoted security forces as claiming that there were concerns for Nasheed’s safety if he was released.

Some security sources in New Delhi said Nasheed was in too much of a hurry to “reform” a deeply religious society. India, however, has concerns over the rise of Islamist parties, the increase in the flow of funds from the Gulf, the widening Wahabi influence and a spurt in travel to Pakistan.

Problems for Nasheed deepened with his opponents coming to dominate the Majlis, the parliament, in the general elections in 2009. The religious right and the judiciary opposed Nasheed’s efforts to relax some of the strict Islamic laws that govern the country in his bid to step up facilities for tourism, which generates 90 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.

In 2010, Nasheed was forced to go back on his plans to allow more of his country’s islands to be taken over by multinational companies to run resorts. Eventually, New Delhi helped his government with aid to tide over a looming fiscal crisis.

[devesh]

the doings of India in the foreign arena are truly mystifying. if the article is to be believed then India helped the new govt to take power and basically agreed that Nasheed had to be ousted. doesn't this embolden the Islamists? and then they claim that they are "worried about rising Islamism". there really is no rhyme or reason. we are a bunch of clueless idiots who swing this way and that way, when it comes to Islam. there is a strong resistance to try and understand RoP.

[shyamd]

The article is only telling you bits of the story. Nasheed made a lot of mistakes as well. Nasheed let loose his goonda's and police/military. What happened yesterday was a culmination of clashes between the opposition and Police/MNDF. Nasheed they say used a lot of powers outside the constitution, like getting the army to lock up the courts and walk away. Then GMR raising fees by 50% prompting foreign airlines to pull out. Allegations of corruption. It was one after the other.

Many issues and him stepping down is actually the best move. Nasheed has a year to re-group and come back. Gayoom is a major factor and is pro-Indian. Key to watch now is how much power the islamists are given - I think they are called the Adalaath party. A multi millionaire called Qasim played a major role too.

THe islamists are the most vocal out of the opposition but are a minority, unlike in Egypt etc where they are the majority. Majority of the opposition is pro-India

[shyamd]

Senior Maldivian Official confirms its a coup

Waheed is just a puppet, the real power in Maldives is a retired Military Colnel Nazim says this official.

This pro Nasheed MP says it was Gayoom's supporters. I agree with him, this was a textbook coup.

There is an article in the hindu detailing Waheed's close ties with India.

Intel sources in Lakshadweep and Kerala say everything normal and quiet on that front. One of our islands is close to Maldivian tip.

Islamists have 3 MPs in parliament out of 77 seats I think.

[nawabs]

India played neutral as Nasheed's men sought military intervention

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... epage=true

Fearing for the personal liberty of the deposed Maldives President, Mohamed Nasheed, close aides said some of his Ministers had sought Indian military assistance when the “coup” was under way on Tuesday but none came.

“Some Cabinet Ministers told us that India had gunboats in the vicinity and would intervene,” Mr. Nasheed's aides told The Hindu from an undisclosed location as they feared arrest.

But highly placed sources here claimed that India played a neutral role in the squabble. “We made it clear to all those who came to us that this was for the Maldivians to sort out among themselves,” they said.

In fact, the then Foreign Minister sought refuge in the Indian High Commission in Male while violence was raging there but was talked out of it and taken away by his party people, revealed the sources.

Other Indian officials said there was no “serious proposal” from the Maldivian government though some Ministers did tell the Indian High Commissioner that “things were hotting up” and some sort of help might be required.

New Delhi is very clear that it would have found itself in the soup and even opposition parties would have turned against it had Indian commandos thrust themselves in what was a largely political dispute among the Maldivians themselves.

“This is certainly not 1988,” the sources said, in reference to “Operation Cactus” launched by the Indian army and navy after businessmen Lutfee hired Tamil mercenaries from Sri Lanka to depose the then President, Abdul Gayoom. “There was some violence which has stopped and they are sorting it out by themselves. Imagine what the reaction would have been had the Indian military intervened in these circumstances.”

Asked whether Mr. Gayoom's men displaying liquor bottles suggested that a case was being made to put Mr. Nasheed in jail, officials here said the basic aim of the Maldives' near neighbours would be to ensure that the new government took complete responsibility of the law and order situation. Meaning, no harm should come to Mr. Nasheed or any member of his government.

“Such demands are made in such a situation but we have been given to understand that the parties have agreed not to try or prosecute Nasheed or his supporters,” the sources said adding, “at no stage will we be brokering for one side or the other.”

But Mr. Nasheed's aides spoke of uncertainty and fear after his advisor Zaki was badly beaten up along with two parliamentarians of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). One MP, they said, was still missing. Mr. Zaki is a familiar figure to those who have known Mr. Nasheed when he was building up international acceptability for himself before challenging Mr. Gayoom for President through the ballot.

‘Resignation at gunpoint'

Giving an eyewitness account of how Mr. Nasheed was forced to quit, the aides said a few minutes to noon on Tuesday, they saw a fleet of unmarked military cars arrive at the Presidential House. Mr. Nasheed got out surrounded by military men, some of them armed. He had a quick meeting with Ministers and was then “forced to resign with a gun pointed to his head.” He was escorted out by the military and in an hour, Vice-President Waheed, who had been making “strange statements” since midnight, became President.

The aides feared that Mr. Gayoom's men, including half-brother Abdulla Yameen and the former security officer, Umar Naseer, were plotting to imprison Mr. Nasheed and even bar him from contesting the next elections after some of them claimed to have found empty liquor bottles in the Presidential House.

[nawabs]

Maldives Rocked by Protests After Coup; 2 Die

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

Police and supporters of deposed Maldives' President Mohamed Nasheed clashed violently Wednesday, leading to the deaths of at least two people who were protesting Mr. Nasheed's removal from power a day earlier in a coup involving military and police.

Mr. Nasheed, in an interview Wednesday, said he believed Mr. Gayoom and his brother had instigated street protests against the judge's removal which culminated in the coup on Tuesday. He said some 20 police and army renegades urged him at gunpoint to resign, which he later did live on television.

After his forced resignation, Mr. Nasheed took to the streets Wednesday to protest and call for his government to be reinstated. He claimed that at least two members of his ruling Maldivian Democratic Party were killed in clashes with police and that he himself was injured. His supporters in outlying islands overran some police posts, he added.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 872681.ece

Violence, fuelled by a speculative media owing allegiance to one party or the other, spread across the atolls of the Maldives after the deposed President, Mohammed Nasheed, on Wednesday decided to take the issue to the streets. Reports reaching Male indicate that members of his Maldivian Democratic Party have virtually taken over administration on at least five islands.

The Maldivian National Defence Forces' acting chief, Ahmed Shihan, and the acting Chief Commissioner of Police, Abdullah Fairoosh, spoke to the media late on Wednesday to set at rest rumours that the country was inching towards a civil war. “On some islands, beginning from this afternoon, there have been some disturbances, especially in the South — Addu as well as Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll. In these islands some courts have been forcefully opened and some courts have been torched. We are trying to bring the situation under control,” Mr. Shihan told The Hindu.

Security 'breakdown' in Maldives' second city

http://news.yahoo.com/security-breakdow ... 57938.html

The mayor of the Maldives' second-largest city Addu spoke Thursday of a total law and order "breakdown" following a night of violence that saw police stations attacked and torched.

"There's no law and order at all. It's a complete breakdown," Addu City Mayor Abdulla Sodig told AFP by phone, saying his wrist had been fractured when he was beaten up by a group of people who attacked him in his office.

Sodig said police were absent from the city streets, while troops from a nearby military base were focused on protecting Gan Airport -- a major conduit for foreign tourists travelling from the capital Male to luxury resort islands.

With 32,000 residents, Addu is the second-largest city in the Maldives after Male.

[Philip]

It is surprising that events in the Maldives,extremely critical to India's security where we once put down an attemptred coup by Lankan Tamils,has been so little in the news and on this Forum.Events have taken place at breakneck speed,where the elected Pres. has been effectively chased out of office by his deputy,some say that former pres Gayooom is innvolved.For the first time,opposing factions have been fighting each other in these paradise isles and Islamist forces,in true Taliban style, have reared their ugly head by dstroying the Buddha statues in the island's tiny but significant museum.Are foreign forces at work here? Has India been caught napping? These are the Q's the mddia has been asking and ther edoes appeaar to be strong undercurrents with China sekign a naval base in the islands and Pak trying to leverage the Islamic card.A senior US diplomat is also arriving in the country on Sat.!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/fe ... st-warrant

Maldives court issues arrest warrant for former president
Fears of renewed street violence after more than 48 hours of political turmoil since Mohamed Nasheed forced out of office.

A court in the Maldives has issued an arrest warrant against Mohamed Nasheed, the country's former president forced to resign by elements within the police and army earlier this week, raising fears of renewed street violence after more than 48 hours of political turmoil.

Speaking to reporters outside his home on Thursday, Nasheed said: "The home minister has pledged the first former president to spend all my life in jail … the facts on the ground are that tomorrow I will be in jail."

Scores of people were injured on Wednesday night, some seriously, after police used teargas and baton charges to break up what witnesses and Amnesty said were peaceful marches by the ousted president's supporters. Casualties included senior politicians loyal to Nasheed.

Aid agencies and hospitals were trying to establish the exact number of those hurt in the clashes. Reports of two deaths appeared unfounded.

"We are not aware of any [fatalities] but information is very difficult to validate," said Ahmed Shifaz of the Maldives Red Crescent.

Though the streets of Male, the capital, and outlying areas were reported to be calm on Thursday morning, concerns remained that the ongoing power struggle will result in fresh violence.

Ahmed Naseem, foreign minister of the Maldives and a supporter of Nasheed, made an impassioned plea for foreign intervention.

"We need them to help solve the issue of this illegal government that has come to power in a coup," Naseem told the Guardian. "It is tense and chaotic. They are coming to arrest [Nasheed] now. I don't know what will happen if they do. God help us.".

There were reports of the destruction of pre-Islamic era relics by a group of men who broke into the national museum. The former president and his party have been repeatedly criticised by Islamist groups in the Maldives, where almost all 330,000 inhabitants are Sunni Muslim.

Nasheed, 43, has said he was forced out of office at gunpoint by a detachment of soldiers led by senior officers. Shortly after his resignation, the vice-president, Mohammed Waheed Hassan, was sworn in as his replacement.

Hassan has denied his predecessor was coerced in any way and has called for a government of national unity.

Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic party (MDP) said, however, it will not join any such administration and will continue to campaign for the return of Nasheed, who is internationally respected for his efforts to raise awareness of global warming.

Senior MDP officials accuse elements within the security forces loyal to Mamoon Abdul Gayoom, who was defeated by Nasheed in the country's 2008 election, of engineering their leader's ousting.

Gayoom ruled the Maldives, a former British protectorate, for 30 years.

The ouster of Nasheed was the culmination of weeks of protests following a presidential order to the military to arrest a judge, accused of blocking multimillion-dollar corruption cases against members of Gayoom's government.

The standoff pitted a police force still largely loyal to Gayoom against a military that was more supportive of Nasheed.

However, it appears to have been elements of the military that marched the president into his own office to sign his own resignation, according to Paul Roberts, Nasheed's communications adviser, and an account written by Nasheed and published in the New York Times on Wednesday.

"Let the Maldives be a lesson for aspiring democrats everywhere: the dictator can be removed in a day, but it can take years to stamp out the lingering remnants of his dictatorship," Nasheed wrote.

Nasheed, educated in the UK, was detained dozens of times during the rule of Gayoom, earning him the nickname "the Mandela of the Maldives".

David Cameron, the British prime minister called him his "new best friend" last November.

Events don't appear to have had any impact so far on the tourists who fill the many luxury resorts of the 1,800-island archipelago.

A senior US diplomat is expected to arrive in the Maldives on Saturday

PS:My sources tell me that the former first lady is now in Colombo,but the wherabouts of the ousted Pres. is not known.Strong Paki support for the plotters may be at work.I am told that one section of the military has strong ties to the former pres. and as the report above says,the police may mostly be Gayoom loyalists.

[shyamd]

Operational wings of Army AF and Navy have been placed on STANDBY. 54th Division will lead ops.

2 Il 76s and SF Commando's placed on all op alert. Plans are ready

[Philip]

Tx Shyam and about time too!

[Sri]

India on't intervene.... till the current President makes an illegal move....

[RajeshA]

It is surprising that events in the Maldives,extremely critical to India's security where we once put down an attemptred coup by Lankan Tamils,has been so little in the news and on this Forum.

Philip ji,

for the sake of continuity, there is already a thread "India - The Indian Ocean Civilization & IOR". It is for the purposes of discussing happenings in the Indian Ocean including Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, A&N, Lakshadweep, etc, as well as strategic implications of various presences there.

shyamd ji had already posted some of news of this there!

It is however up to you how you wish to proceed!

[shyamd]

I doubt they'll do anything. But to place everything on standby and move into position is serious business.

The new MNDF army chief was trained in India and was in India even last year.

Its probably worth calling early elections if the crisis escalates further.

[ramana]

I moved the posts from IOR thread for sake of completeness.

ramana

[member_21074]

Indian plan for military ‘intervention’ in Maldives in place
The Indian government appears to have prepared a contingency plan for some form of military intervention in Maldives in the event that the new President Dr Mohammed Waheed seeks it – and to fly deposed president Mohamed Nasheed out of the country to ensure his safety and well-being.

According to reports, a Defence Crisis Management Group made up of the operational wings of the Indian army, navy and air force has been placed on standby. An amphibious briage under 54 Division will lead the operations if required.

A decision to intervene militarily will require the government to take a political call on the unfolding situation, which has taken a dire turn in the past 24 hours, after police cracked down on street demonstrations by supporters of deposed president Nasheed, who too was beaten on Wednesday and for whom an arrest warrant has been issued.

It was not immediately clear if an Indian intervention would only be in aid of civil defence or would have a wider military significance – or whether it would be a military drill. India has thus far scrupulously refrained from taking sides, unlike in 1988, when it rushed to the then President Gayoom’s defence when he faced an armed invasion by a Sri Lankan militant group.

Nasheed’s wife and children, meanwhile arrived in the Sri Lankan capital of Colombo. Nasheed himself remains in Male, and has said he will court arrest if police came for him.

On Thursday, the newly sworn in Maldives President Dr Mohammed Waheed spoke to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh – and during the telephone conversation reaffirmed the special ties that his country shared with India, and held out the assurance that he was committed to upholding the Constitution and the rule of law.

Singh, in turn, said that India stood ready to provide any support or assistance that the people of Maldives might require.

For more on the latest, follow CNN-IBN chief national correspondent Sumon K Chakraborti, who leaves for Male soon.

[member_21074]

For more on the latest, follow CNN-IBN chief national correspondent Sumon K Chakraborti, who leaves for Male soon.

a tweet from this guy:
and I am getting threatning texts from #Maldives promising more bloodshed

And another guy tweets
IAF keeps three planes ready for evacuations of indians from Maldives . War ships r also ready.

[Vashishtha]

I am surprised by the indian governments decision NOT TO help nasheed... clearly the islamists have now taken over (seems like with the help from our best friends). Sending forces now is pointless...

[shyamd]

GoI wants to ensure safety of Nasheed and are ready to whisk him out of the country.

[hnair]

The flashpoint was related to Pakistan but not for the usual reasons. The hawks found fault with a monument Pakistan erected to showcase its pluralistic heritage in the Maldives on the occasion of the 17th Saarc summit in November.

All Saarc-member countries, including India, had built such monuments at Addu City. But protesters targeted Pakistan’s edifice — a pillar that depicted the cultural stages that Pakistan underwent from the Harappan and Buddhist past to its Islamic heritage before being proclaimed an Islamic Republic. Pakistan was only trying to portray its multi-cultural heritage but it inflamed passions among some sections.

LuLz moment in this sordid affair - TFTA pakis being judged by SDRE Male-log as being "less pure"

[nawabs]

Maldives issues arrest warrant for Mohamed Nasheed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16959808

Crowds of supporters have gathered at the house of the former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed, as a warrant was issued for his arrest.

Mr Nasheed told the BBC that he was worried about his safety. Reports say that his wife and daughters have already fled to Sri Lanka.

Mr Nasheed resigned on Tuesday amid protests over his rule. He says he was forced to resign by security forces.

The authorities deny this, but protests turned violent on Wednesday.

Mr Nasheed was among dozens injured in the capita, Male, when riot police used tear gas against protesters as unrest intensified.

It is unclear what the charges against the former president might be. Senior officials in Mr Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) say there is also a warrant for the arrest of his former Defence Minister, Tholhath Ibrahim Kaleyfaanu.

New President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik told the BBC that although a warrant is outstanding, he has ordered it not to be carried out unless it becomes necessary for Mr Nasheed's personal safety.

The UK's High Commissioner to the Maldives, John Rankin, has expressed his concern that no harm comes to Mr Nasheed.

"It would be a matter of serious concern for us and the international community if it did," Mr Rankin said.

Security forces have also been deployed to the Maldives' second-largest city of Addu, where there have been reports of more violence.

On Wednesday several thousand Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) supporters, led by Mr Nasheed, marched through the streets of the capital in protest at his ousting.

The violence spread to outlying islands, where there were reports that several police stations had been overrun by supporters of Mr Nasheed.

That night, police said on state television that the protests led by Mr Nasheed were "an act of terrorism".

But Amnesty International has issued a statement saying that Maldivian security forces attacked supporters of Mr Nasheed during the demonstrations and also failed to protect them from counter-demonstrators.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 874665.ece

A weak President, a belligerent set of officials who have re-discovered power, and a defiant former President are together pushing Maldives deeper into crisis, with each player trying to outdo the other since late Wednesday.

“I never fought and I don't want a war. When police come with a warrant we will go with them,” Mr. Nasheed said on Thursday. “I cannot believe that the Vice-President hasn't participated in the whole thing. Military officers very clearly told me that if I did not resign in an hour they would use arms… My advice to MDP and to citizens is not to do anything unwise. And keep all actions within the laws. I regret that I have heard nothing from the Prosecutor General about all this,” he added.Speaking to the international media, Mr. Nasheed, who unsuccessfully appealed to India to help him out, made a similar plea to the global community. He wanted them to intervene before it was “too late”.

The drama began with the “arrest” of Moosa Manik, a prominent Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) politician, at the Ibrahim Nasir International airport on Wednesday night as he tried to go abroad. When the issue came to President Waheed Hassan's notice, he ordered the immediate release of the politician, who proceeded to fly abroad for treatment. Mr. Nasheed's wife, Laila, was allowed to leave for Sri Lanka, without any hassle.

In another instance, a criminal court reportedly issued an arrest warrant against Mr. Nasheed. The criminal court's Chief Judge, Abdulla Mohamed, was held by the military for close to a month on charges of corruption. He was released the day Mr. Nasheed resigned. While court officials said they were not in the know on such an order, sources close to Mr. Nasheed insisted that there had been such an order. The police, too, confirmed the presence of a warrant but said they had not acted on it. Mr. Nasheed refused to go into hiding; stayed put at his residence, daring the government to arrest him.

Meanwhile, the former President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, told a few diplomats that he did not want to come back from Malaysia at this stage as his wife was still undergoing treatment. His daughter, Dunya Maumoon, deputy spokesperson of the party Mr. Gayoom recently founded, the PPM, told The Hindu that he was planning to come back next week.

Maldives crisis: Will Nasheed be arrested? Legality of arrest warrant being examined

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/maldi ... ned-174925

A Maldives court issued an arrest warrant on Thursday for former President Mohamed Nasheed, one day after his supporters rampaged in the capital and his claim of being ousted by a coup left unclear the stability of the fledging Indian Ocean democracy.

Police spokesman Abdul Mannan Yusuf refused to disclose the grounds for the criminal court's warrant, or say when Nasheed - who is living at his Male home, surrounded by supporters - would be arrested. Later, Police Commissioner Abdullah Riaz said it was not clear if the warrant was constitutional. He declined to provide details, but said the warrant's legality was still being examined.

[KLNMurthy]

I am surprised by the indian governments decision NOT TO help nasheed... clearly the islamists have now taken over (seems like with the help from our best friends). Sending forces now is pointless...

Taking sides will alienate Gayoom who is a friend though Islamist. We are not currently in the business of taking on Islamism.

Sending forces would be a reminder to Maldivians as well as swollen-headed brits, pakis et al that we are the big elephant.

[nawabs]

Senior Maldivian Official confirms its a coup

Waheed is just a puppet, the real power in Maldives is a retired Military Colnel Nazim says this official.

This pro Nasheed MP says it was Gayoom's supporters. I agree with him, this was a textbook coup.

Colnel Nazim is the new Defence Minister
http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 876087.ece

Thursday evening marks the beginning of the weekend in Islamic Maldives. Not so for Waheed Hassan, President with the shortest possible honeymoon ever. At the most, he has a few weeks to put Maldives back on track. So, he wasted no time.

He began effecting changes to run the administration from Wednesday.

His first job was to appoint Home and Defence Ministers. Mohamed Jameel Ahmed was given the Home Affairs while Mohamed Nazim was made the Minister of Defence and National Security. They were told to resolve the situation, implement laws according to the Constitution and treat every citizen equally. Both the new Ministers had fallen foul of the earlier regime, and are also considered anti-India. The Home Minister had brought out a handbook against the Indian private sector company that is in charge of Male Airport, GMR. Also, the new police chief was dismissed by the Nasheed government when he was deputy police chief. All this suggest that while walking the proverbial tight rope in balancing demands, Dr. Waheed is also not averse to employing talent that is not universally acceptable.

After consultations with his new colleagues, he appointed Ahmed Shiyam as head for the defence forces. Mr. Shiyam was told that his first priority was to protect and safeguard peace and security. Stressing on the importance of the media, he appointed a secretary to coordinate his relations with it. His meeting with representatives of political parties have been continuing through the day and late into the night since he assumed power.

Amid these changes, he met Indian High Commissioner to The Maldives, Duyaneshwar Mulay; British High Commissioner in Sri Lanka who is concurrently accredited to The Maldives John Rankin; UNDP Resident Representative Andrew Cox and many others. He is to meet a U.N. team on Friday and Robert O' Blake, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, on Saturday.

[nawabs]

US recognises new government of Maldives

http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/us-re ... ves-174935

The United States on Thursday recognised the new government of Maldives President Mohamed Waheed as legitimate and urged him to fulfill a pledge to form a national unity government.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland also said Robert Blake, the top US diplomat for south Asia, telephoned former president Mohamed Nasheed to tell him Washington backed a "peaceful resolution" of the crisis on the archipelago.

"We do," Nuland told reporters when asked if Washington recognizes the new government as the legitimate government of the Maldives. She called Waheed the president and Nasheed the former president.

Blake, the assistant secretary of state for south Asian affairs, will travel Saturday to the Maldives to meet with both Waheed and Nasheed, who charges he was ousted in a coup, as well as civil society.

"He will be encouraging this national unity conversation," she added.

"Blake spoke this morning to former president Nasheed, conveying assurances that the United States supports a peaceful resolution of this," Nuland said.

Blake assured Nasheed who is facing arrest "that we are also expressing our views to the government that his security should be protected," Nuland said.

Unrest has spread to the far corners of the nation of more than 1,000 islands, as Waheed struggles to maintain order.

Nasheed, the country's first democratically elected president, who has hunkered down at his modest family home in the capital Male since losing the presidency on Tuesday, has appealed for urgent foreign help.

The United States is "also encouraging him, as we encouraged President Waheed that this needs to settled now peaceably through dialogue and through the formation, as the new president has pledged, of a national unity government," Nuland said.

[shyamd]

Male unrest keeps Kerala on it toes

Ripples of the upheaval in Maldives seem to have reached the shores of Kerala.

Maldives nationals residing in the state have been placed under surveillance by the Kerala police following intelligence inputs that operatives from the island nation have been frequenting the state for some time now.

The state police feel the 'operation' to oust President Mohamed Nasheed could have been allegedly funded by a section of Maldivians living in the state.

'We know that the state is an ideal place for them to plan and execute their operation. We are yet to come across conclusive evidence but we have got some valuable tips on their operations in the state,' a senior officer in the state intelligence wing said.

For long, Thiruvananthapuram has been a prime destination for Maldivians who visit the place for better health and education facilities.

'They rent out their houses in Maldives to foreign tourists and stay here for treatment and education. In fact, some of the private hospitals in the city run mainly on the income generated from treating Maldivian patients,' Thomas Mathew, a tour operator in Thiruvananthapuram, said.

Intelligence agencies are worried about the rise of Islamist influence in the island nation and fear they may foment trouble in the state.

[shyamd]

Don't harm ousted president, India tells Maldives

NEW DELHI: Having rushed to welcome the new president of Maldives Dr Waheed, India is working hard behind the scenes to ensure a peaceful transition, and has asked the new regime to ensure safety of ex-president Mohamed Nasheed, after an arrest warrant was put out for him on Thursday evening.

Even as the violence on the streets of Male and Addu escalated, national security adviser Shivshankar Menon held a spate of meetings here on Thursday to see how India can ensure several things. First, impress upon the new government that former president Nasheed should not be targeted, harmed or imprisoned; second, that the transition to the new regime be as peaceful as possible; that the new government should ensure continuity rather than sweeping changes and lastly that the new government should honour all its agreements.

India is also preparing for a worse-case scenario of increased instability in the tropical island nation - one warship and two naval patrol vessels are on standby, though they haven't yet been diverted to the Maldives. A couple of patrol vessels which are in the area for anti-piracy missions have been put on alert and if things worsen substantially there over the next few days, India would be ready to evacuate foreigners from there. Maldives is one of the top vacation spots for well-heeled tourists from all over the world.

However, India is prepared to let the situation play itself out in the Maldives for the time being at least. Sources said, optimistically, that there were enough internal mechanisms within the Maldivian system to resolve the present crisis. But this belief, which led the Indian government to initially accept the changed situation in Maldives with alacrity, is no longer founded in reality. India was actively involved in the changeover, and the orderly transition of power - for the second time in its history - was seen as a positive sign. But democracy in the Maldives is in its infancy still, and the fear is that it may not be able to withstand the strain of the current events.

New Delhi is uncomfortable with some of the new appointments by Waheed - his new home minister is Mohamed Jameel Ahmed of minority opposition Dhivehi Quamee Party. Jameel famously published a controversial pamphlet accusing Nasheed of working with "Jews and Christians" and against Islamic ideals. Many other appointments seem to be throwbacks to the Gayoom era - even Gayoom's spokesperson is apparently acting for Waheed. India has cautioned Waheed against such largescale changes.

Having facilitated the changeover from Nasheed with some degree of smoothness after the first round of surprise, India was unprepared for the violence that broke out in the Maldives since Wednesday and drastically altered the ground realities. After Nasheed told journalists that he had been forced out at gunpoint by forces apparently willing to shoot him dead, and his family fled to Sri Lanka, the situation got distinctly ugly. India's unease has only grown since.

For starters, there is no clarity yet on what was the exact nature of the changeover. Waheed, who met journalists on Thursday, denied any coup. "Do I look like someone who'd bring about a coup d'etat?" he asked. But Nasheed said he feared for his life. "They beat me up very badly... they also tried to drag me...after I came out there was a crowd," said the ex-president.

The fears here are that the new system, which hasn't even seen two election cycles, could be overturned either with former president Gayoom trying to make a comeback with the help of the armed forces, or whether the army itself gets a taste of ruling the country. It is also unclear how much popular support Waheed himself enjoys as he tries to stitch a coalition together to hold until elections in 2013. What is clear is that Nasheed continues to have a large number of both supporters and detractors. His supporters reportedly set on fire several police stations which is certain to invite law enforcement actions against Nasheed. Several of his MPs have been detained and suffered police action. Justice Abdulla Mohamed, whose detention had sparked off the crisis, on Thursday put out arrest warrants for Nasheed and his defence minister.

Nasheed has appealed for international help to restore democracy in his country. While India has a large diplomatic presence in the country, reports on Thursday said the US and UN officials were flying into Male. The British envoy from Sri Lanka too has flown in to assess the situation.

[brihaspati]

I have said from a long time, that Islamists were slowly taking Maldives over. Neither "side" is pro-Indian - they simply pretended to be "friends" because they were the mosquitoes lying close to the shadow of the elephant. Islamists around the gulf and subcontinent had long started planning for Maldives - in fact as early as 80's.

What we see now - and which some of us consistently deny on the basis of overt official statements made by individuals - is a phase of the planned Islamist encirclement plan. Maldives has been pointed out long ago as a wonderful base for Islamists offshore India.

The so-called sides are simply factions based often on individualism, ego and clans - but from behind each of them are supported or manipulated by the theocracy and their roots further down in the Gulf and Pakiland, as well as some connections deeper in the Inslamist heartland of north India. Their formal infighting may make spectacular fireshows and helps to fool the qaffir - but it does not detract a single bit from the fact that both knowingly or unknowingly ultimately serve the Islamists.

[nawabs]

British stakes in Maldives
http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 875175.ece

In the anxiety to pitch the struggle for power in the Maldives as essentially an India-China story in some quarters, one key player is being ignored: England.

In the middle of what part of the British officialdom believes is a coup, a top British diplomats in the region – the High Commissioner to Sri Lanka and The Maldives who is based in Colombo -- has been camping in Male for over three days. No other senior diplomat, accredited to the Maldives, is in town. The United States Mission in Colombo has sent one of its senior staffers, not a diplomat. The British Prime Minister David Cameroon commented on the issue in Parliament, and a few British MPs have voiced their concern.

“President Nasheed is very close to Britain,” said a diplomat, who did not wish to be named. “He was based there for many years and had developed friendships with people across the political spectrum,” he added. A few of his advisors too are British.

The British High Commissioner met both former President Mohamed Nasheed and the new President Waheed Hassan Manik on Wednesday. Both tried to tell him that they were fighting for democracy, establishing the supremacy of the Constitution and rule of law in the country, one top official said.

A British diplomat sought to dispel the notion that they were supporting Mr.Nasheed. The United Kingdom has appealed for calm and has called on both sides to exercise restraint, the diplomat said.

In the House of Commons

David Amess, Chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group to the Maldives , speaking in the House of Commons on Wednesday, asked the Prime Minister if he shared his disappointment at the overthrow yesterday of the first democratically elected President of the Maldives in a coup d’état.

In his reply, the Prime Minister said: “This country does have strong links with the Maldives and a good relationship with President Nasheed, but we have to be clear. President Nasheed has resigned, and we have a strong interest in the well-being of several thousand British tourists and in a stable and democratic Government in the Maldives.”

The spokesperson of Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the Commission, in a statement expressed her deeply concerned about developments in the Maldives. “She

has noted the reasons stated by President Nasheed for his decision to resign. She is willing to support this dialogue in any way that the Maldivian authorities consider useful, in close cooperation with the international community."

It seems that the British connection has influenced the decision of the Maldivian High Commissioner to the UK. Farah Faizal became the first Maldivian Foreign Service official to resign. In a letter to the Foreign Minister, a copy of which was forwarded to The Hindu, she said: “I hereby tender my resignation as High commissioner of Maldives to the UK and as Ambassador of Maldives to France, Spain, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Palestine. I regret to let you know that I cannot serve in a government that has toppled the democratically elected government of Maldives, in a coup d'etat.”

[nawabs]

Political Transition in Maldives

http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/Politic ... mar_090212

The dramatic events which took place in Maldives on February 7, 2012 has led to the ‘involuntary’ resignation of the country’s democratically elected president. Although the political situation is likely to stabilise in the short-term with the elevation of Vice President Dr. Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik to the position of president, multi-party democracy established in the country after the 2008 elections has received a definite setback.

Waheed has vowed to uphold the rule of law. He intends to form a government of national unity and has assured that presidential elections would be held in 2013 as planned. Justice Abdullah Mohamed, whose arrest triggered these developments, was released soon after the presidential change over.

A section of people in Maldives as well as in the international community have described the resignation of Nasheed as a coup. In fact, the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) to which Nasheed belongs has alleged that the resignation had been engineered by "rogue elements" of the police and military, along with supporters of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. MDP also alleged that the opposition threatened the president with a bloodbath if he refused to resign. For his part, Nasheed stated in a televised address that he chose to resign to protect the public from further violence.

Political uncertainty has been prevailing in Maldives for some time now. Nasheed’s problems began when his party failed to get a majority in the Maldivian parliament after the 2009 general elections. Nasheed wanted to relax strict Islamic laws to promote tourism, which is the largest foreign exchange earner for the country. However, his attempt to step-up facilities for tourism was defeated because of the assertion by the religious right and the judiciary. In the year 2010, Nasheed was forced to roll back his plan of allowing more multi-national companies from setting up resorts on unutilised islands.

Nasheed had received the economic crisis as a legacy from former president Gayoom who had left the country on the verge of bankruptcy. Maldivians have been protesting against soaring prices. Last year, the country also faced a major dollar crunch. India has been helping Nasheed’s government with occasional financial support to tide over these problems.

In the present political crisis Islamic radicals have also played an important role. There has been growing Islamic radicalism in Maldives. Islamic radicals have been trying to create problems for the government of Nasheed who represented the moderate stream in the country. Islamic radicals even demolished the monument constructed by Pakistan at Addu city on the occasion of the 17th SAARC summit in November. Showcasing Pakistan’s pluralistic heritage, the monument showed the different stages of cultural development in Pakistan from the Harappan and Buddhist past to its Islamic heritage before being proclaimed an Islamic Republic. However, inflamed religious passion in a section of the Maldivian population impelled them to destroy the monument.

The Maldivian government was also forced to briefly close all hotel spas and health centres in resort hotels in December 2012 after the hard-line Islamist Adhaalath party claimed that these were fronts for prostitution. This decision was however reversed as the country critically depends on tourism.

The hardliners also opposed Nasheed's restoration of diplomatic relations with Israel, his attempts to transform the school curriculum which was narrowly focussed on Islamic principles, and his defence of a 'modern' Islam that is open to other faiths. They also wanted the government to stop Israeli flights and tourists from coming to Maldives.

The country plunged into a constitutional crisis when Nasheed ordered the arrest of the Chief Criminal Judge Abdulla Mohamed in a joint operation by the Police and Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) on January 16. The judge had ordered the release of a government critic and opposition leader Mohamed Jameel Ahmed, who, according to him, was illegally detained. The arrested person had allegedly defamed the government during a television interview in which he accused Nasheed's government of working against the state religion, Islam, with the support of Christians and Jews.

There is no doubt that the judiciary in Maldives is in a mess. A large number of unqualified and incompetent people have come into the judiciary towards the end of Gayoom’s dictatorship. However, the public in general disapproved of the arrest of Judge Abdullah. The Supreme Court of Maldives passed an order for his immediate release, but it was ignored by the Nasheed government. This alienated some conscientious lawyers and led to the resignation of SAARC's first woman Secretary General, Fathimath Dhiyana Saeed. She joined the protestors along with her husband.

It also created confusion in the country and rumours started circulating that Nasheed wanted to fill the judiciary with his men. Nasheed is an honest man but unfortunately he is not an astute politician. Due to the mishandling of the situation a political stand-off with religious overtones was transformed into an impasse between his government and the judiciary, which prompted many of his supporters to desert him. Nasheed’s mishandling of the situation precipitated the crisis resulting in his ouster.

In recent times India has invested a great deal of political and economic capital in the Maldives. When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Maldives for the SAARC summit, he also visited Male and signed a framework agreement with the Maldivian government. This includes joint efforts against piracy and joint patrolling of seas and aerial surveillance. The Indian Navy helps the MNDF in preventing piracy. And the Indian private sector GMR group is building a new airport in Male.

For India, political uncertainty in Maldives is a cause for concern. Maldives is strategically located and sits astride important sea lanes of communication. Several external powers including China and Pakistan are looking to gain footholds in the country. They might use the prevailing political uncertainty to their advantage. It is in India’s interest that Maldives is able to tide over the present political crisis successfully and multi-party democracy survives in the country.

[ramana]

I guess local elections in India are staying the govt's hands.


I guess all they will do is express concerns and wring their hands.

[ramana]

Even Telegraph is wondering at the at lack of policy. Is NSA still there?

Maldives Mess puts Delhi in bind

New Delhi, Feb. 9: India is at sea with its policy on the Maldives and is in grave danger of ceding strategic space in the Indian Ocean that is astride its sealanes.

In New Delhi today, the government was wondering what call to take on directing its policy without appearing to be interventionist.

Developments in the Maldives suggested New Delhi may have been hasty in announcing its unqualified support to the new Maldivian President Mohamed Waheed.

On Tuesday, after President Nasheed quit office, government sources in New Delhi had expressed confidence that the transfer of power in the Indian Ocean archipelago was peaceful and under the ambit of the Maldivian Constitution.

On Wednesday, as Nasheed alleged he was ousted at gunpoint, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent a letter to his successor expressing India’s unqualified support to his government. The Prime Minister iterated that support to Waheed later in the day when the latter called him but hoped that his government would honour the Maldivian Constitution.

“I will still give them the benefit of the doubt. It is an evolving situation. Our PM was correct in stressing to President Waheed that he should honour his country’s Constitution,” said former diplomat G. Parthasarathy.

The play of events in the Maldives now is vastly different from the 1988 attempted takeover by alleged mercenaries that prompted India to launch “Operation Cactus”, flying its soldiers to Male and saving then President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom who now led the Opposition against President Nasheed.

New Delhi, however, has activated a defence crisis management group under the Integrated Defence Staff. Vice-Admiral Shekhar Sinha is the chief of Integrated Defence Staff to the chairman, chiefs of staff committee, and he heads the tri-service command. The vice-chiefs of the armed forces, the director of naval operations, assistant chief of air staff (operations) and the Director General of Military Intelligence are understood to be in the committee.

Since Mohamed Nasheed was deposed – he calls it a coup at gunpoint – as the President of the archipelago on Tuesday and Mohamed Waheed Hasan Manik took over at the helm, New Delhi was under the impression that it had facilitated a transition in a situation that was about to snowball.

But 72 hours later, with Nasheed claiming that he was likely to be arrested and incarcerated after a warrant ordered by an allegedly biased judge, South Block was at pains to re-craft its Maldives policy. Nasheed’s wife and daughter have found refuge in Sri Lanka.

In the interim, Nasheed’s supporters have hit the streets and torched at least one police station in Addu, where the Indian Navy has maintained maritime surveillance aircraft. Envoys from the UK, the European Union and the US are heading to Male.

“Nasheed’s resignation was itself an indication that things were going out of control. But what can we (India) do? We cannot micro-manage a country,” says Anand Kumar, associate fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis. Kumar was in the Maldives six months ago and had interviewed its national security adviser and defence and foreign ministers.

Despite the turbulence in the Maldives growing since December, India’s foreign office had chosen to take a hands-off policy. Till 2011, four countries had full-time missions in Male – India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Last year, China also opened an embassy.

Parthasarathy said it was worrisome that Waheed has accommodated people in his cabinet who have Islamist ideologies. Waheed’s home minister Ahmed Jamil Ahmed and another minister who is a former cop both belong to Islamist parties.

“There is a sign here that Islamists are being accommodated in the government despite them having lost in the elections. I see Gayoom’s hand and encouragement in this,” said Parthasarathy.

Retired diplomats said the situation was still evolving and they hoped South Block has a plan B ready. But sources within the government raised questions about the Indian high commission’s role.

“The high commissioner should have given a better assessment of the situation. It would seem the officials there do not have their feet on the ground,” said a source, surprised that New Delhi could not anticipate Nasheed’s protests.

Another retired diplomat questioned India’s current high commissioner’s ability to take political decisions. “We could have waited and watched instead of issuing statements in support. No major country has come out in Waheed’s support. Where was the hurry? I hope we are not playing favourites here,” said the retired diplomat.

He said New Delhi should have taken a leaf out of what Washington has done. US assistant secretary Robert Blake, who was on a scheduled visit to Bangladesh, will make a stopover in Male. “We also should have sent a senior diplomat to study the situation,” said the retired diplomat.

Sources said Waheed could not be the solution to what is a fight between Gayoom and Nasheed. They said Waheed could only be an interim solution. “We need to tell Waheed that he should follow democratic norms, not go about arresting Nasheed’s supporters just because they are protesting,” said a source.

Waheed was Nasheed’s running mate in the 2008 presidential elections but his party has little presence in the Majlis, the Maldivian parliament. “He can at best be an interim arrangement,” said a source.

Parthasarathy said military intervention was not an option. He was in the Prime Minister’s Office when India had intervened to quell a coup in 1988. “This situation is different as it is an internal political upheaval unlike 1988. But before we sent in our forces, we had consulted with both Washington and Moscow. The decision wasn’t taken in isolation,” said he, but cautioning that Indian forces in the Maldives will be bad news for India as fundamentalists will exploit the nationalist sentiment.

But Indian influence in the Maldives and access to its leadership across parties was perceived to be deep. The newly appointed chief of the military, Brigadier-General Priyam Mohamed, for example, finished a course at the National Defence College in New Delhi and returned home only in December.

Kumar says that he has come across reports that Nasheed wanted Indian military intervention to save his presidency. “But that is not our business. In no time, we will be branded ‘big brother’ and radicals will use it as an issue to incite passions,” Kumar said.

[ramana]

We need to start from basics:
So what are Indian interests in Maldives?

What are Indian options?

Which options further which interests?

[shyamd]

Send a senior envoy and basically ensure free and fair elections by the end of the year. Make sure Nasheed can re-group and participate. Get Washington and Russia to support us.

These are the only countries that can intervene seriously in Maldives.

Interests - choke point for trade and ytroop transfer from east to west and vise e versa. We cant afford to lose it. Goi had signed deals to basically integrate their defence with us. Sensor network, air craft , counter piracy, training etc.

Baring on links with Kerala as a side issue.

[devesh]

most fundamental interest: stop the spread of Islamism. to achieve that goal the migration to ME and Pak needs to be stopped or diverted so these parasites don't go back and infect the home society. perhaps INC should woo them with Deoband in UP heartland?!

[ramana]

How about peaceful and non-violent change?
Looks like Indian intervention in mid 80s was to prevent a violent coup.
While regime change was peaceful the aftermath appears not so.
Devesh please get realistic.

[devesh]

I would very much like to get realistic, but any realism will have to accept Islamism as a problem. and if that realism has to be channeled into actual moves on the ground then the state has to wield its power to make it so. but when the state believes that confronting Islamism undermines its power, what "realism" are we talking about?

i would love to be realistic about the situation, which is why I operating under the self-imposed constraints of GoI. based on these constraints, there is nothing India can do to hit back at Islamism. so, keeping it in mind, I came up with an idea that doesn't go against those constraints.

it might sound ridiculous but not all too far fetched: what if some worthy does come up with that idea? in the name of composite culture and multicultural org***** bliss?!?! what does BRF have to say about this: inviting next generation of Islamists under scholarships to Deoband institutions and Islamic centers in India? let us not forget the recent news about a huge Sufi Center coming up in Hyderabad. I'm convinced that one of the objectives of that node is to turn it into a hotspot for foreign "dignitaries" and "multicultural visitors". the same reason that the US opened its embassy there.

all that is OT. but the issue of Maldivian Islamic "scholars" trained in India is not too far fetched.

[ramana]

Also keep in mind that right now IN is busy in East Coast of India exercising in Torpex-12.

There seems ot be vacancy in Delhi circles.

Indian High Commissioner appears to be no where to be seen or named.

The IDSA scholar was in Male for some time interviewing folks.


It all loosk like an invitation to go ahead.