Let us Understand the Chinese - II

[hgupta]

What happened to Jack Ma is 100% pure robbery. The government plainly stole the IP and the works of Alibaba from Jack Ma who worked so hard to create what it is today. The CCP goons got very greedy and used the powers of the state to rob Jack Ma. There is no respect for property rights by CCP. It is based on how much power you have.

[ramana]

Since the Zhou dynasty, China was an authoritarian state. The Jack Ma episode confirmed it.
Thread is about understanding not judging.

[Cyrano]

Whatever his capabilities might babe, Jack Ma's success was due to patronage by CCP bigwigs. He was allowed to get media hero status to embellish China's image as a business destination in the Internet era. But when his own image started getting too big and he started getting critical of the Chinese Govt, he was cutdown to size. He who gives taketh away. For CCP, whatever happens to Alibaba is of no importance.

What is this complaining about property rights in China? They never really existed.

[vijayk]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-glob ... s0y60nk0ji
China’s Global Mega-Projects Are Falling Apart
Many of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects are plagued with construction flaws, including a giant hydropower plant in Ecuador, adding more costs to a program criticized for leading countries deeper into debt

Built near a spewing volcano, it was the biggest infrastructure project ever in this country, a concrete colossus bankrolled by Chinese cash and so important to Beijing that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, spoke at the 2016 inauguration.

Today, thousands of cracks have emerged in the $2.7 billion Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant, government engineers said, raising concerns that Ecuador’s biggest source of power could break down. At the same time, the Coca River’s mountainous slopes are eroding, threatening to damage the dam.

“We could lose everything,” said Fabricio Yépez, an engineer at the University of San Francisco in Quito who has closely tracked the project’s problems. “And we don’t know if it could be tomorrow or in six months.”

It is one of many Chinese-financed projects around the world plagued with construction flaws.

During the past decade, China handed out a trillion dollars in international loans as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative, intended to develop economic trade and expand China’s influence across Asia, Africa and Latin America. Those loans made Beijing the largest government lender to the developing world by far, with its loans totaling nearly as much as those of all other governments combined, according to the World Bank.

Yet China’s lending practices have been criticized by foreign leaders, economists and others, who say the program has contributed to debt crises in places like Sri Lanka and Zambia, and that many countries have limited ways to repay the loans. Some projects have also been called mismatches for a country’s infrastructure needs or damaging to the environment.

Now, low-quality construction on some of the projects risks crippling key infrastructure and saddling nations with even more costs for years to come as they try to remedy problems.

[ramana]

Two Qing Emperors
http://projects.mcah.columbia.edu/nanxu ... /emperors/

They ruled 120/268 years of the Qing Dynasty.

[ramana]

War, Politics and Society in Early Modern China, 900-1795 (Warfare and History)
Peter Lorge

This comprehensive survey of Chinese military history is the only book in English to span the significant years from 900 – 1795. Peter Lorge questions current theories on China’s relationship to war, and argues that war was the most important tool used by the Chinese in building and maintaining their empire. Emphasizing the relationship between the military and politics, chapters are organised around specific military events and, Lorge argues, the strength of territorial claims and political impact of each dynasty were determined by their military capacity. Ideal as a course adoption text for Asian military studies, this is also valuable for students of Chinese studies, military studies and Chinese history.

Critical book as even Mao Zedong used war to expand and consolidate China in the Civil War, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet. They would have rolled into Nepal and the five fingers but were constrained by the PLA's capability. They still tried with regard to Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh.

[ramana]

John F Sullivan on Twitter is decoding Sun Tzu quite well

https://twitter.com/JohnF_Sullivan/stat ... 77249?s=20

John Boyd's argument in "Patterns of Conflict" that Genghis Khan conducted warfare based on the tenets of Sun Tzu illustrates neatly Clausewitz's admonition that reliance on ancient military history to clarify contemporary theory is too often driven by "vanity and quackery."

[ramana]

https://scholars-stage.org/not-everyone-likes-sunzi/

Kangzi is the second Qing/Manchu Emperor. One of the longest-ruling Chinese emperors.
Along with his grandson Qianlong between two they ruled about 120 years out of the 300-year Qing rule.
Incidentally, there is a very popular Chinese TV serial about Qianlong time called YingLuo or Yanzhi Place on Netflix.

The Great Kangxi.
Source: Wikimedia.


Born Aixin-Jueluo Xuanye and styled Kangxi, his reign was the longest of any emperor. To this day no Chinese scholar has followed in the footsteps of Arthur Schlesinger Sr. and gathered China’s best historians together to rank all of China’s emperors, but if the task ever is completed, we can be assured that the Kangxi Emperor would receive a choice spot on the list. He ruled the Celestial Empire in a day when this title was well deserved.

Xuanye was a man of two natures. Famed for his calligraphy and poetry, the Kangxi Emperor presented himself to the world as a Confucian scholar but rode and shot as good as any true Manchu. He managed to strengthen the Chinese bureaucracy without weakening Manchu power. Under his rule the Qing economy began its ‘efflorescence’ despite a major rebellion in Southern China and near continuous warfare in Taiwan, Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet. Because of Xuanye’s tireless efforts the Qing line was accepted by the Chinese people and it is because of his determination China’s modern borders have their current shape.

The Kangxi emperor was one of the great men of human history. He was also not impressed with Sunzi.

Said he:

“For in war it’s experience of action that matters. The so-called Seven Military Classics are full of nonsense about water and fire, lucky omens and advice on the weather, all at random and contradicting each other. I told my officials once that if you followed these books, you’d never win a battle. Li Guangdi said that in that case, at least, you should study classical texts like the Zuo Zhuan, but I told him no, that too is highflown but empty. All one needs is an inflexible will and careful planning.” [1]


To attain victory all one needs is an inflexible will. “Inflexible will” is one way to describe the Kangxi’s schedule:

“Admittedly there has to be a limit to the work that any one person can do, and when the Ping-yang prefect, Chin, boasted that he could handle seven or eight hundred items of business in one day, I demoted him, saying: “I’ve been ruling for forty years, and only during the Wu Sangui rebellion did I handle five hundred items of business in one day. Nor did I myself hold the brush and write the documents, and even so I could not get to bed until midnight. You may fool other people but you can’t fool me.” In other military campaigns there were sometimes up to four hundred memorials, but usually there are about fifty a day and it’s not too hard to read them, and even to correct the mistakes in them.” [2]


More interesting is what the emperor studied while actually on the campaign trail:

“Before we moved against Galdan in 1696 I told the senior officers—Manchu, Mongol, and Chinese —to meet together by Banner and discuss how we might anticipate Galdan’s movements and how we should deploy our own troops. Even the most casual suggestions were to be collected and reported to me. After the basic strategy of a western strike from Ningxia and a central strike from Beijing across the Gobi was agreed upon, the Council of Princes and High Officials worked out the details of rations for soldiers and servants, fodder for camels, the number of carts, and so on, basing their figures on an estimated 10,790 troops in the western army, and 8,130 in the center—with four horses, one servant, eighty days’ basic rations, and an extra two pecks of rice per month for each active combatant soldier (with the exception of the gunners, two of whom could share one servant).

For my part, I reviewed the campaign instructions of my ancestors’ victories and combined them with the demands of this new campaign.” [3]


In his campaigns against the Zunghars Xuanye valued his Manchu ancestor’s campaign instructions far more than the words of the ancient Chinese strategists. He was not the first to belittle the Chinese strategic canon. In China snubbing Sunzi is itself a veritable military tradition.

Wrote the Grand Historian two millennia before the Kangxi’s day:


“Huo Qubing was little given to idle talk. But he possessed great daring and initiative. The emperor once tried to teach him the principles of warfare as expounded by the ancient philosophers Sun Zi and Wu Zi, but he replied. “The only thing that matters is how one’s own strategies are going to work. There is no need to study the old-fashioned rules of warfare!” [4]


Many of China’s greatest commanders would dispute this. For every Huo Qubing of Chinese history there is a Cao Cao, who treasured the Sunzi so much that he wrote his own commentary for it.

But there is an important difference between men like Cao Cao and Huo Qubing. Cao Cao’s greatest enemies were Chinese. He spent his days fighting other Chinese warlords and the kingdoms they created. They were the kind of enemies the strategies of the Seven Military Classics–written for the most part in a vicious world of Warring States–were designed to defeat.

The authors of the Sunzi never saw a steppe horde. Such a thing was beyond their imaginations. Yet this was exactly the kind of enemy many Chinese generals spent their lives trying to defeat. Huo Qubing and his flying cavalry columns fought their way to fame in the wars against the Xiongnu confederacy of the Northern steppes; the Kangxi told his generals to ignore China’s strategic canon while campaigning against the Mongols of the Zunghar Khanate.

{The key here is strategy should be crafted according to the threat. Maneuver warfare is fine against states that have a center of gravity. Its futile against nomads or ideological opponents


The authors of the Sunzi and the other military classics operated under the assumption that those who would read their words would be warring against a bureaucratic state that fielded large armies of free-holding farmers led by professional generals. Their stratagems reflected these assumptions; these strategies could prove disastrous when these assumptions did not match the enemy Chinese soldiers faced. The advice to not totally surround enemy soldiers and force them to fight to the death makes a great deal of sense in the conditions Sunzi and company envisioned. [5] This same advice is ruinous when fighting steppe hordes who have no land or homes to protect and are masters of the strategic retreat. As long as an avenue of escape is possible, the nomads could not be defeated. To defeat a nomadic army is to surround it, surprise it, and slaughter all of it without offering hope of quarter or escape. [6]

{As I noted above maneuver warfare wont work with nomads or ideological opponents}
'

This is an irony of Chinese military history. In many ways, the Chinese strategic tradition better equips Chinese statesmen to deal with the challenges of the modern, ‘multi-polar’ world of today than it ever did equip the statesman of the traditional Chinese world order.

[ramana]

Full quote of Kangzi Emperor on the seven classics:

I am quite late to the party on this, but given that Spence's translation is also heavily edited, it might be worth reproducing the whole quote, which I found in Nicola de Cosmo (ed.), Military Culture in Imperial China (2009):

I have read the seven military classics in their entirety and find them a real mishmash, to the point that they cannot possibly be brought into accord with righteousness. This talk of “attacking with fire” and “water wars” is all nonsense. If one were to follow these directions there would be absolutely no method for gaining victory. And then there is the talk of secret allies, power over the elements, prognostication and so on. This serves only to pervert the minds of small men. Since over the years the three feudatories have been pacified, Taiwan has been taken, and Mongolia has been pacified and ordered, I have dealt with a very large number of military matters. I have personally led punitive military campaigns and I deeply understand the way of generalship. How can we wholly depend on what is said in the seven books? Mengzi said, “the benevolent man can not be defeated,” and, “Heaven’s timeliness is not as important as advantages of terrain; advantages of terrain are not as important as unity among men.” Even if we wanted to have another book compiled these days, this is no time to go about revising military texts… Mengzi has said, “They can be made to confront the tough armour and sharp weapons of Qin and Chu with wooden sticks.” If you consider this idea while directing the troops, all is well. Anyway, the idea that “The benevolent man can not be defeated” is the way of the king. Using schemes, deceit and baseless talk is not as good as the way of the king, which means refusing to do battle only to see the enemy’s troops defeat themselves. The two words “way” and “king” represent the most ingenious military techniques. Since ancient times bellicosity has been a hideous thing. Those who excel in warfare all put off the use of war until, compelled by circumstances, they lose all choice in the matter. In the past when Wu Sangui rebelled, Jiangnan and Huizhou lost one xian to rebellion. A general named Echy led a punitive force there. One man offered advice to the rebels, saying, “Manchu soldiers can’t fight on foot. If you order people to lure them into the rice fields, you’ll definitely defeat them.” Ignorant that Manchu soldiers are tough, brave, and aggressive, those who wished to lure in the Manchus had not even reached the rice fields before they had all been slaughtered. He who had offered the advice was killed by my troops. Those who employ the seven military classics are all like that man. What is the point of discriminating among the seven military classics nowadays to make up essay questions? Combine them with Lun Yu and Mengzi and make up questions from the result.

My own reading of this agrees to a great extent with yours – Kangxi saw little to learn from ancient Han Chinese theorists, whose practitioners his predecessors had so easily overrun. Additionally, it is clear that he – in quite a presciently Clausewitzian manner – saw the significance of politics in warfare, hence his addition of the more 'civilian' classics to the military exams.

In other words, Kangxi combined politics with warfare to create a strategy.
I may add Zhuge Liang too but is forgotten by the Qing Dynasty time.

[chetak]

Not enough attention has been paid by #Indian policymakers on how #China’s increasing demographic vulnerability can be leveraged to counter its territorial aggression.

via@MinhazMerchant

[NRao]

Xi Jinping hits out at US as he urges China’s private firms to ‘fight’ alongside Communist Party

China’s leader Xi Jinping hit out at the United States with unusually direct comments as he called on the country’s private companies to “fight” alongside the Communist Party at a time of mounting challenges at home and abroad.

“[In the past five years,] Western countries led by the United States have contained and suppressed us in an all-round way, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our development,” Xi told a group of government advisers representing private businesses during an annual legislative meeting in Beijing on Monday.

China’s top leader usually avoids directly attacking the US in public even as relations between Beijing and Washington have deteriorated sharply in recent years. He generally refers only to “Western countries” or “some developed nations” when making critical comments about Washington.

Speaking to business delegates from a top political advisory body, Xi expressed concerns about external and economic challenges facing the country, while urging Chinese people to “unite as one.”

“In the coming period, the risks and challenges we face will only increase and become more severe. Only when all of the people think in one place, work hard in one place … can we continue to win new battles,” he said, according to a readout published by state-run Xinhua news agency. “We are in the same boat.”

Ties between the world’s two biggest economies are at their worst in decades. Tensions soared further in February after a suspected Chinese spy balloon floated over North America and was then shot down by US fighter jets.

Xi spoke during the annual meetings of China’s parliament and top political advisory body, together known as “Two Sessions.”

The meetings, which feature more than 5,000 delegates, will confirm Xi’s third term as president and the biggest shakeup to China’s economic leadership in a decade.

A crucial reform of the cabinet will also be unveiled during the meetings, which is expected to further strengthen Xi’s direct control of China’s government and economic system.

An important force’
During his speech Monday, Xi sought to reassure the private sector – which has been rattled by his statist policies in recent years – calling on them to play a role in boosting growth, jobs and tech innovation.

“The private sector is an important force for our party to govern in the long term,” Xi said. “We always regard private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as people on our own side.”

Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, attends a discussion group meeting held on the sidelines of China's 19th Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Thursday, October 19, 2017.
China's crackdown on tech giants is 'basically' over, top official says
His exhortation comes after the Chinese economy posted its second worst annual growth rate in nearly half a century.

Business confidence has plummeted following an unprecedented regulatory crackdown on the private sector and increasing uncertainties about China’s future path.

On Tuesday, customs data showed China’s exports fell nearly 7% in the January-to-February period, extending a decline from previous months, as global demand weakened. Imports dropped 10.2%.

China’s exports to the US plunged 15%. But imports increased about 3%. The US remains China’s single largest trading partner.

Aligning China’s independent-minded private businesses with the party’s priorities could help speed the nation’s fragile recovery, while extending the control of Xi, the most powerful leader the country has seen in decades.

Major contributor
The private sector, despite being dwarfed in size by the state sector, contributes more than 60% to China’s GDP and over 80% of employment, according to official statistics.

Xi urged the government to support private businesses and remove institutional barriers that restrict them from entering certain industries.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers his state of the nation address during the opening session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Sunday, March 5, 2023.
China sets lowest GDP growth target in decades as Beijing tightens its belt
It’s also necessary to protect the property rights of private companies and entrepreneurs and treat state firms and private companies equally, so as to “boost market expectations and confidence,” he said.

“[We should] let private companies play an important role in stabilizing employment and increasing [government] income,” he said.

In particular, the government must support internet companies “to shine” on the global stage, create jobs and expand consumption, he said.

However, Xi also stressed the need to strengthen political and ideological control of private industry, saying entrepreneurs should be guided to “correctly understand” the principles and policies of the Communist Party, including his call for “common prosperity.”

Private entrepreneurs should be “patriotic” and actively participate in social welfare and charitable undertakings, he said.

“[You should be] rich with love,” he added.

On Sunday, outgoing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced the lowest GDP target seen in decades, indicating the government is aware of the tough task ahead of delivering economic recovery.

[NRao]

China’s Xi Jinping Takes Rare Direct Aim at U.S. in Speech

March 6, 2023

Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued an unusually blunt rebuke of U.S. policy on Monday, blaming what he termed a Washington-led campaign to suppress China for recent challenges facing his country.

“Western countries—led by the U.S.—have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to our country’s development,” Mr. Xi was quoted by state media as saying on Monday.

Mr. Xi’s comments marked an unusual departure for a leader who has generally refrained from directly criticizing the U.S. in public remarks—even as his decadelong leadership has demonstrated a pessimistic view of the bilateral relationship.

The accusation of U.S. suppression of China’s development over the past five years comes as Mr. Xi faces charges from investors that China’s economy has been damaged by his policies, including the emphasis on national security.

The comments were part of a speech to members of China’s top political advisory body during an annual legislative session in Beijing, according to a Chinese-language readout published by the official Xinhua News Agency.

While Mr. Xi has mentioned the U.S. in critical tones during internal speeches, such remarks have often filtered out through subordinates relaying his messages for broader audiences, within the party and beyond. In statements made in public settings or directly reported by state media, Mr. Xi has typically been more measured and vague regarding the U.S. and other Western countries, referring to them as “certain” countries rather than naming them explicitly.

Now by directly accusing the U.S. of seeking containment, a term loaded with Cold War meaning, Mr. Xi appears to be associating himself more closely with nationalist rhetoric—widely used by lower-ranking officials and state media—that attacks Washington, at a time when bilateral tensions continue to simmer over trade, technology, geopolitical influence and discordant views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The English-language version of Mr. Xi’s speech reported by Xinhua didn’t refer to containment or the U.S. Instead, it quoted him telling fellow officials to “have the courage to fight as the country faces profound and complex changes in both the domestic and international landscape.”

President Biden says the U.S. competes with China but doesn’t want conflict, though Beijing worries that an emphasis in his national-security strategy on historic rivalry between democracies and autocracies is a sign Washington seeks regime change in Beijing. “We’re not looking for a new Cold War,” Mr. Biden said last month.

The escalatory spiral makes it hard to cool tensions but both China and the U.S. have room to tame the rhetoric, Jessica Chen Weiss, a Cornell University professor and former State Department adviser, told an online conference hosted by Foreign Policy magazine on Monday. “The current tit-for-tat spiral serves no one,” she said.

The accusations by Mr. Xi against the U.S., delivered to an audience that includes politically connected businesspeople, appeared in part to be an effort by Mr. Xi to shift blame away from his own policymaking, including tough Covid controls that have weakened the economy and pressure on technology companies that cost the industry some of its dynamism.

Chinese leaders often speak in opaque terms but as Mr. Xi continues to consolidate power, he might be searching for new ways to explain the country’s gathering troubles, including on the economy, said Shirley Martey Hargis, a nonresident fellow at the Washington think tank Atlantic Council. “It’s either take the blame or shift it,” she said.

At Monday’s meeting, which included representatives from China’s state-backed national chamber of commerce, Mr. Xi sought to boost confidence within the private sector—a crucial driver of growth and supplier of jobs in the world’s second-largest economy, but also a community shaken by regulatory crackdowns and harsh pandemic lockdowns in recent years.

The Chinese leader insisted that the Communist Party “has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people,” and would provide them with support whenever they run into difficulties, Xinhua said.

At the same time, Mr. Xi urged business people to strive for wealth with a sense of responsibility, righteousness and compassion, and to bear in mind his push for “common prosperity”—aimed at redistributing more of China’s wealth, amid concerns that the elite classes had benefited disproportionately from the country’s economic boom.

According to Xinhua, Mr. Xi also defended his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and addressed the growing tensions between China and the West. He also urged the business community to work together with the party to overcome difficulties in an uncertain global environment.

“In the coming period of time, the risks and challenges that we face will only increase and intensify ever more,” Mr. Xi was quoted as saying by Xinhua.

Chinese officials have long warned the U.S. against what they call Cold War thinking, and Mr. Xi appeared to make a similar point in his November summit with President Biden, according to China’s official summary of the meeting. It quoted the Chinese leader as saying, “Suppression and containment will only strengthen the will and boost the morale of the Chinese people.”

China’s foreign-policy establishment had already been using the words “suppression and containment” to describe pressure from the U.S., including Mr. Xi’s new top international envoy, Wang Yi, and foreign minister, Qin Gang.

Official spokespeople for China’s Foreign Ministry, who speak to foreign reporters at regular briefings, often in strident tones, have also used the terminology.

In December, Mr. Wang told American banker and co-chair of the Asia Society John Thornton, “It is imperative that the U.S. abandon its unreasonable acts of containment and suppression of China, earnestly put President Biden’s positive remarks into action, and return to the more positive and practical China policy,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry summary of the meeting.

When Mr. Xi sent a dark message to fellow Communist Party leaders at a conference last October, he didn’t name the U.S. when warning of threats: “External attempts to suppress and contain China may escalate at any time.”

Write to Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@wsj.com, Keith Zhai at keith.zhai@wsj.com and James T. Areddy at James.Areddy@wsj.com

Appeared in the March 7, 2023, print edition as 'Xi Takes Rare Direct Aim at U.S. in Speech'

[NRao]

Investor Mark Mobius says he cannot get his money out of China

Mark Mobius has said he cannot take his money out of China due to the country’s capital controls, cautioning investors to be “very, very careful” about investing in an economy under a tight government grip.

“I have an account with HSBC in Shanghai. I can’t take my money out. The government is restricting flow of money out of the country,” Mobius, founder of Mobius Capital Partners, told FOX Business in an interview published on March 2.

“I can’t get an explanation of why they’re doing this … They’re putting all kinds of barriers. They don’t say: No, you can’t get your money out. But they say: give us all the records from 20 years of how you made this money … This is crazy.”

[Cyrano]

Actually not so crazy. Can a non western company or individual take out 100s of millions out of US or UK without any checking?

[NRao]

Analysis: In his parting words, Li Keqiang warns that 'heaven is watching'

State-run China Central Television has so far not aired -- or more accurately is unable to air -- the controversial segment in which Li makes remarks that some interpret as digs at Chinese President XiJinping, the general secretary of the Communist Party.

Although some videos have been taken down, it is clear that Li said these words: "Heaven is looking at what humans are doing. The firmament has eyes."

The forceful words portray a conviction. Technically, his remarks were directed at the senior officials in the State Council who have supported him over the years. Even if the spotlight is not on you, heaven is watching your wonderful work. Do continue this under the new premier, his message was.

But many of his loyalists were probably startled by the words he chose.

To start to answer that, it is necessary to understand the "north-south war" that has played out over the last decade in Beijing's Zhongnanhai quarter, where China's top officials have their offices.

Zhongnanhai is a former imperial garden. The "south courtyard" is the stronghold of the central organizations of the Communist Party led by Xi, and the "north courtyard" is home to the main offices of the State Council -- China's government formerly controlled by Li.

Relations between the two courtyards have always been delicate, but since Xi's era began in 2012 the south courtyard has gained the upper hand. Indeed, it was in 2016 that the south won this tug-of-war.

That year, an article by an anonymous "authoritative figure" appeared on the front page of the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party. The piece criticized "Likonomics," the economic stimulus measures led by Li, and it sent shock waves through the State Council.

The author was Liu He, an economist and member of the Politburo close to Xi. His criticisms weakened the State Council, and concentrated more power in Xi's hands. Likonomics once commanded international attention. Since 2016, it has fallen by the wayside.

In his parting words, Li pointedly praised senior figures responsible for formulating important State Council policies, and kept referring to "the people's voice" and "the people's power."

"The people" in China's communist ideology are supposed to be the lead players in politics. Interpreting common voices and reflecting them in actual policies is a role that was traditionally played by the State Council.

But that has withered away, and power has been consolidated in the Communist Party's Central Committee under Xi's all-powerful thumb.
Li's remarks seemed to hint at his skepticism toward this disregard of tradition.

"Tian (Heaven)" is a key concept in Eastern philosophy. It exists above mere mortals, and is a place where bad deeds are frowned upon.
So who might be doing bad things? There are various interpretations.

As mentioned above, a number of recordings of Li's farewell have been circulated. It points to Li'smany fans who are sad at his retirement and wanted to spread his brave words. Including his time as vice premier, Li spent 15 years in the north courtyard. It is natural to think that he has fans there.

On the day of Li's final speech, there was an interesting news report on CCTV's main evening news program. It said that Communist Party secretaries within all organizations, including the StateCouncil, all submitted reports to Xi directly.

Such a mechanism was unthinkable before Xi's era, and demonstrates the concentration of power in the Communist Party's Central Committee.

The annual session of the National People's Congress closes on March 13 after nine days. Li Qiang, a close aide to Xi, is set to be elected as China's new premier, and the decline in the StateCouncil's powers will become even more evident.

"A plan for the reform of party and state institutions" is being deliberated in the current parliamentary session, and will also spur the State Council's decline. What will this mean?

A Communist Party source told Nikkei Asia: "Slight differences in indirection between Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have been an impediment to policy implementation, and there is no doubt that policies will be decided and implemented faster under the party leadership in future."

"If there is no difference between the party and the government as a result of the north courtyard complying fully with the south courtyard, everything will go well as it is more efficient," the sources said.

That argument is open to question.

When deciding on complex economic policies, the government took into account varying inputs from local governments, think tanks and other stakeholders. After heated discussions, a well-thought out policy would be implemented. This process may be skipped going forward.

Local government bureaucrats already worry primarily about Xi's likely reaction to whatever they propose. The best way to protect themselves is to hide their real thinking and to refrain from expressing objections. This trend is already clear, and will only become more pronounced in future.

In addition to Liu, all other vice premiers, including Hu Chunhua -- once tipped as a possible next-generation leader -- will leave the State Council. Li Qiang, the incoming premier, has no experience as a vice premier.

The Central Committee's dominant role in making decisions raises concerns.

Fearing an escalation in the bitter China-U.S. trade war, Li took a number of mitigation measures over the past five years, but superpower relations continued to deteriorate because of the security feud. Domestic economic measures meanwhile did not produce the desired results.

Li Keqiang believed COVID-19 had not been brought completely under control even though Xi and the Central Committee had declared victory. His farewell speech reflected some ongoing concerns about the virus.

After delivering his farewell speech to the parliament on Sunday, Li shook hands with Xi in a rare scene. It came three days after his speech to the State Council officials. One can but speculate as to what both men were thinking after a challenging decade of shared experiences and differing opinions in the battle gardens of Zhongnanhai.

[Avid]

A great talk on implications of PRC taking Taiwan.

It covers a lot of domain generally not covered

[SSridhar]

China’s one-time heir apparent to President Xi Jinping to be kicked upstairs - Straits Times

Up to three standard-bearers of the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) Youth League faction could be kicked upstairs and appointed advisers to Parliament, clipping the wings of the once-high-flying group.

Vice-Premier Hu Chunhua, once touted as a potential successor to Chinese President Xi Jinping, Supreme Court President Zhou Qiang, 63, and Madam Shen Yueyue, 66, the current president of the government-backed NGO All-China Women’s Federation and a vice-chair of the National People’s Congress (NPC), or Parliament, could soon be political has-beens.

[vijayk]

https://www.wionews.com/world/china-has ... rts-570295
China stole US military data to develop more advanced fifth-generation fighter jet J-20, claim experts

[vijayk]

https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/how-is- ... -in-china/
How Is India Viewed in China?
Chinese views of India are very complicated – but generally based on a sense of superiority and self-confidence.

In addition, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an unusual nickname on the Chinese internet: Modi Laoxian (莫迪老仙).

Laoxian refers to an elderly immortal with some weird abilities. The nickname implies that Chinese netizens think Modi is different – even more amazing – than other leaders. They point to both his dress and physical appearance, seen as laoxian-like, and some of his policies, which are different from India’s previous ones.

In particular, as discussed above, India led by Modi can maintain a balance among major countries in the world. Whether it is Russia, the United States, or Global South countries, India can enjoy friendly ties with all of them, which is very admirable to some Chinese netizens. So the word “laoxian” reflects the complex sentiment of Chinese people toward Modi, combining curiosity, astonishment, and perhaps a dash of cynicism.

[Cyrano]

Wonder how the Chinese people view Xi ? They cant help but draw comparisons between Modi and Xi.

[krithivas]

Article by Anbarasan Ethirajan fully devoted to Chinese POV as to why they want AP. Minor rebuttal by Mr. Shyam Saran.
Tawang: The Indian monastery town coveted by China
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-ind ... 5Bisapi%5D

Mr Zhou, the former PLA officer, says Indian intransigence has generated suspicion. "In China there are some people who say the Indian attitude is like - mine is mine and yours is also mine. They believe that as India is in control of the eastern sector, therefore they are trying their best to grab more land in the west in Ladakh," Mr Zhou said.

smh

[ramana]

I don't have full access but fascinating paper.
I wish Indian Sinologists also did a frank assessment of their contributions to Sinology.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals ... ABDECC503E

[ramana]

Analysis: In his parting words, Li Keqiang warns that 'heaven is watching'

State-run China Central Television has so far not aired -- or more accurately is unable to air -- the controversial segment in which Li makes remarks that some interpret as digs at Chinese President XiJinping, the general secretary of the Communist Party.

Although some videos have been taken down, it is clear that Li said these words: "Heaven is looking at what humans are doing. The firmament has eyes."

The forceful words portray a conviction. Technically, his remarks were directed at the senior officials in the State Council who have supported him over the years. Even if the spotlight is not on you, heaven is watching your wonderful work. Do continue this under the new premier, his message was.

But many of his loyalists were probably startled by the words he chose.

To start to answer that, it is necessary to understand the "north-south war" that has played out over the last decade in Beijing's Zhongnanhai quarter, where China's top officials have their offices.

Zhongnanhai is a former imperial garden. The "south courtyard" is the stronghold of the central organizations of the Communist Party led by Xi, and the "north courtyard" is home to the main offices of the State Council -- China's government formerly controlled by Li.

Relations between the two courtyards have always been delicate, but since Xi's era began in 2012 the south courtyard has gained the upper hand. Indeed, it was in 2016 that the south won this tug-of-war.

That year, an article by an anonymous "authoritative figure" appeared on the front page of the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party. The piece criticized "Likonomics," the economic stimulus measures led by Li, and it sent shock waves through the State Council.

The author was Liu He, an economist and member of the Politburo close to Xi. His criticisms weakened the State Council, and concentrated more power in Xi's hands. Likonomics once commanded international attention. Since 2016, it has fallen by the wayside.

In his parting words, Li pointedly praised senior figures responsible for formulating important State Council policies, and kept referring to "the people's voice" and "the people's power."

"The people" in China's communist ideology are supposed to be the lead players in politics. Interpreting common voices and reflecting them in actual policies is a role that was traditionally played by the State Council.

{State Council was keeping the pulse of the MOH. Now that job is for XJP's folks.}


But that has withered away, and power has been consolidated in the Communist Party's Central Committee under Xi's all-powerful thumb.
Li's remarks seemed to hint at his skepticism toward this disregard of tradition.

"Tian (Heaven)" is a key concept in Eastern philosophy. It exists above mere mortals, and is a place where bad deeds are frowned upon.
So who might be doing bad things? There are various interpretations.

As mentioned above, a number of recordings of Li's farewell have been circulated. It points to Li's many fans who are sad at his retirement and wanted to spread his brave words. Including his time as vice premier, Li spent 15 years in the north courtyard. It is natural to think that he has fans there.

On the day of Li's final speech, there was an interesting news report on CCTV's main evening news program. It said that Communist Party secretaries within all organizations, including the StateCouncil, all submitted reports to Xi directly.

Such a mechanism was unthinkable before Xi's era, and demonstrates the concentration of power in the Communist Party's Central Committee.

{This means XJP has now unified the command of the China political apparatus. No longer there are centers of power outside the Chairman's control. It also means he is the new Emperor. I interpret Li Keqiang's speech is addressed to XJP and cautioning him that the Mandate of Heaven(MOH) still binds China and its the people that decide the MOH.}


The annual session of the National People's Congress closes on March 13 after nine days. Li Qiang, a close aide to Xi, is set to be elected as China's new premier, and the decline in the StateCouncil's powers will become even more evident.

"A plan for the reform of party and state institutions" is being deliberated in the current parliamentary session, and will also spur the State Council's decline. What will this mean?

A Communist Party source told Nikkei Asia: "Slight differences in direction between Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have been an impediment to policy implementation, and there is no doubt that policies will be decided and implemented faster under the party leadership in future."

"If there is no difference between the party and the government as a result of the north courtyard complying fully with the south courtyard, everything will go well as it is more efficient," the sources said.

That argument is open to question.

When deciding on complex economic policies, the government took into account varying inputs from local governments, think tanks and other stakeholders. After heated discussions, a well-thought out policy would be implemented. This process may be skipped going forward.

{So PRC is reverting to the neo-Confucian authoritarian model of Mao Zedong. No more Deng Xiaoping's consensus or democracy lite process. China is entering a new era about 4 decades after Mao Zedong. The consensus phase is over. }[i/]


Local government bureaucrats already worry primarily about Xi's likely reaction to whatever they propose. The best way to protect themselves is to hide their real thinking and to refrain from expressing objections. This trend is already clear, and will only become more pronounced in future.

{In the Chinese authoritarian model, if you hold back it is off to the re-education camp. So I don't think they will hold back.}


In addition to Liu, all other vice premiers, including Hu Chunhua -- once tipped as a possible next-generation leader -- will leave the State Council. Li Qiang, the incoming premier, has no experience as a vice premier.

The Central Committee's dominant role in making decisions raises concerns.

Fearing an escalation in the bitter China-U.S. trade war, Li took a number of mitigation measures over the past five years, but superpower relations continued to deteriorate because of the security feud. Domestic economic measures meanwhile did not produce the desired results.

{Here is the key reason for Li KeQiang's exit. His policy of appeasing the US failed. Its not under his control but failure has a father.}

Li Keqiang believed COVID-19 had not been brought completely under control even though Xi and the Central Committee had declared victory. His farewell speech reflected some ongoing concerns about the virus.

After delivering his farewell speech to the parliament on Sunday, Li shook hands with Xi in a rare scene. It came three days after his speech to the State Council officials. One can but speculate as to what both men were thinking after a challenging decade of shared experiences and differing opinions in the battle gardens of Zhongnanhai.

{The departing deputy capo is yielding to the current capo. Nothing more. The transfer of power is complete.}

Made my comments next to the parts that are highlighted.

[ramana]

Xi Jinping hits out at US as he urges China’s private firms to ‘fight’ alongside Communist Party

China’s leader Xi Jinping hit out at the United States with unusually direct comments as he called on the country’s private companies to “fight” alongside the Communist Party at a time of mounting challenges at home and abroad.

“[In the past five years,] Western countries led by the United States have contained and suppressed us in an all-round way, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our development,” Xi told a group of government advisers representing private businesses during an annual legislative meeting in Beijing on Monday.

China’s top leader usually avoids directly attacking the US in public even as relations between Beijing and Washington have deteriorated sharply in recent years. He generally refers only to “Western countries” or “some developed nations” when making critical comments about Washington.

Speaking to business delegates from a top political advisory body, Xi expressed concerns about external and economic challenges facing the country, while urging Chinese people to “unite as one.”

“In the coming period, the risks and challenges we face will only increase and become more severe. Only when all of the people think in one place, work hard in one place … can we continue to win new battles,” he said, according to a readout published by state-run Xinhua news agency. “We are in the same boat.”

Ties between the world’s two biggest economies are at their worst in decades. Tensions soared further in February after a suspected Chinese spy balloon floated over North America and was then shot down by US fighter jets.

Xi spoke during the annual meetings of China’s parliament and top political advisory body, together known as “Two Sessions.”

The meetings, which feature more than 5,000 delegates, will confirm Xi’s third term as president and the biggest shakeup to China’s economic leadership in a decade.

A crucial reform of the cabinet will also be unveiled during the meetings, which is expected to further strengthen Xi’s direct control of China’s government and economic system.

An important force’
During his speech Monday, Xi sought to reassure the private sector – which has been rattled by his statist policies in recent years – calling on them to play a role in boosting growth, jobs and tech innovation.

“The private sector is an important force for our party to govern in the long term,” Xi said. “We always regard private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as people on our own side.”

Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, attends a discussion group meeting held on the sidelines of China's 19th Party Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Thursday, October 19, 2017.
China's crackdown on tech giants is 'basically' over, top official says
His exhortation comes after the Chinese economy posted its second worst annual growth rate in nearly half a century.

Business confidence has plummeted following an unprecedented regulatory crackdown on the private sector and increasing uncertainties about China’s future path.

On Tuesday, customs data showed China’s exports fell nearly 7% in the January-to-February period, extending a decline from previous months, as global demand weakened. Imports dropped 10.2%.

China’s exports to the US plunged 15%. But imports increased about 3%. The US remains China’s single largest trading partner.

Aligning China’s independent-minded private businesses with the party’s priorities could help speed the nation’s fragile recovery, while extending the control of Xi, the most powerful leader the country has seen in decades.

Major contributor
The private sector, despite being dwarfed in size by the state sector, contributes more than 60% to China’s GDP and over 80% of employment, according to official statistics.

Xi urged the government to support private businesses and remove institutional barriers that restrict them from entering certain industries.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers his state of the nation address during the opening session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Sunday, March 5, 2023.
China sets lowest GDP growth target in decades as Beijing tightens its belt
It’s also necessary to protect the property rights of private companies and entrepreneurs and treat state firms and private companies equally, so as to “boost market expectations and confidence,” he said.

“[We should] let private companies play an important role in stabilizing employment and increasing [government] income,” he said.

In particular, the government must support internet companies “to shine” on the global stage, create jobs and expand consumption, he said.

However, Xi also stressed the need to strengthen political and ideological control of private industry, saying entrepreneurs should be guided to “correctly understand” the principles and policies of the Communist Party, including his call for “common prosperity.”

Private entrepreneurs should be “patriotic” and actively participate in social welfare and charitable undertakings, he said.

“[You should be] rich with love,” he added.

On Sunday, outgoing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced the lowest GDP target seen in decades, indicating the government is aware of the tough task ahead of delivering economic recovery.

It is an Economics World War that is being unleashed.
XJP is marshaling all of China together.

[ramana]

Modiji has not yet asserted control on Babudom.
Same steps to centralize.

It has taken XJP about 10 years to control the North Corridor or State apparatus. It took a pandemic and a clash with India and rising tensions all around China to do this.
Wars and pandemics are great centralizers.

IOW even if it was not XJP there would be a leadership consolidation.

[ramana]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhavati

Very important concept

[ramana]

A long article on Xiongniu-Han Wars
The Western Xionniu became the Huns

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/asi ... -expansion

In an age that spawned the ancient Roman and Egyptian empires, Mongolia’s Xiongnu Empire broke the rules of imperial expansion.

Long before the Mongol Empire arose, Asia’s first nomadic empire, horse-riding Xiongnu people, conquered ethnic groups across the continent’s northeastern and central expanses (SN: 1/29/10). A common political system headed by Xiongnu imperial rulers formed about 209 B.C. and lasted for roughly 300 years. Unlike in Rome or Egypt, mobile groups of Xiongnu animal herders accomplished this feat without building cities, forming central bureaucracies, devising a writing system or mobilizing masses of farmers to produce food.

Today, remnants of Xiongnu culture largely consist of more than 7,000 tombs, some heavily looted and many yet to be excavated, in Mongolia and nearby parts of China and Russia. In the last decade, geneticists and archaeologists have ramped up efforts to study these sites and ancient records to decipher the Xiongnu Empire’s political organization and technological achievements.

One of their leaders Modu Chanyu was like Kalakeyas of Bahubali!!!



The long war led to the decline of Han dynasty and led to the Three Kingdom Period and so on and so forth.

[ramana]

Miles Yu on why China is obsessed with Taiwan.

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editor ... 2003797620

[ramana]

Link: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/999897

New study uncovers the Causes of the Qing Dynasty's Collapse
Peer-Reviewed Publication
COMPLEXITY SCIENCE HUB VIENNA

Flag of the Qing Dynasty (1889-1912)
IMAGE: AFTER OVER 250 YEARS, THE QING DYNASTY IN CHINA COLLAPSED.



The Qing Dynasty in China, after over 250 years, crumbled in 1912. Led by the Complexity Science Hub (CSH), an international research team has pinpointed key reasons behind the collapse, revealing parallels to modern instability and offering vital lessons for the future.



China is considered today to be the world's largest economy (in terms of PPP). However, this position is not new. In 1820, China's economy already held the top spot, accounting for 32.9% of the global GDP. In the interim, there was a period of decline followed by a resurgence. In 1912, after over 250 years in power, the Qing Dynasty collapsed despite being considerably wealthier at the time than modern-day China. "This clearly demonstrates that any economy must be vigilant as circumstances can change, and sometimes rather rapidly," emphasizes Georg Orlandi, the study's first author.

SIMILAR ROOTS THEN AND NOW

"It's crucial to comprehend the origins of such instabilities. Assuming it's a thing of the past and can't recur would be a mistake. Such changes can indeed happen because the underlying mechanisms bear surprising similarities," CSH researcher Peter Turchin points out.

Scientists have been attempting to pinpoint the causes behind the fall of the Qing Dynasty for two centuries. Various factors had previously been proposed, including environmental disasters, foreign incursions, famines, or uprisings. However, "none of these factors provides a comprehensive explanation," notes Turchin.

THREE MAIN DRIVERS

Hence, in this study, researchers amalgamated various factors and discovered that three elements dramatically heightened socio-political pressures:

Firstly, there was a fourfold population explosion between 1700 and 1840. This resulted in reduced land per capita and caused an impoverishment of the rural populace.

Secondly, this led to increased competition for elite positions. While the number of contenders soared, the number of awarded highest academic degrees declined, reaching its nadir in 1796. Because such a degree was necessary for obtaining a position in the powerful Chinese bureaucracy, this mismatch between the number of positions and those desiring them created a large pool of disgruntled elite aspirants. The leaders of the Taiping Rebellion, perhaps the bloodiest civil war in human history, were all such failed elite-wannabes.

{E.g. The leftists in India who cant get jobs and become disgruntled anarchists}

Thirdly, the state's financial burden escalated due to rising costs associated with suppressing unrest, declining per capita productivity, and mounting trade deficits stemming from depleting silver reserves and opium imports.

Collectively, these factors culminated in a series of uprisings that heralded the end of the Qing Dynasty and exacted a heavy toll in terms of Chinese lives lost.

THE QING WERE AWARE

According to the study's findings, social tensions had already peaked between 1840 and 1890. "Assuming that the Qing rulers were unaware of this mounting pressure would be erroneous," explains Turchin. The fact that the dynasty endured until 1912 rather underscores its institutional structures' robustness.

However, many of their attempted solutions proved short-sighted or inadequate to the task; for instance, the government raised the allowable quota for people passing certain degree exams but without increasing the number of available openings. This ended up exacerbating the already-building tensions. With the arrival of potent geopolitical challengers through the late 19th century, the rulers ultimately couldn't avert their downfall.

PREVENT INSTABILITY TODAY

We can draw valuable lessons from this historical process for the contemporary era and the future. Many nations worldwide are grappling with potential instability and conditions that closely resemble those of the Qing Dynasty. For instance, competition for top positions remains exceedingly fierce. Orlandi cautions, "When a large number of individuals vie for a limited number of positions, political decision-makers should view this as a red flag, as it can, at the very least, lead to heightened instability."

"Unfortunately, the corrosive impact of rising inequality and diminishing opportunities develop over longer time scales that make them hard to recognize,” adds co-author and CSH Affiliated Researcher Daniel Hoyer, “let alone effectively combat within the short political cycles we see in many countries. Without long-term vision and targeted strategies to relieve these social pressures, many places are at risk of going the way of the Qing."

NO CRYSTAL BALLS
"We aren't prophets. Our primary aim is to comprehend social dynamics, which we can then leverage for making forecasts," elucidates Orlandi. The effectiveness of this endeavor using the Structural Demographic Theory (SDT), a method co-developed by Peter Turchin that represents societies as complex interactive systems, has been demonstrated by researchers on multiple occasions. For instance, a study published in 2010 forecasted the 2020 instability in the USA.

___________


FIND OUT MORE

The study “Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China” by Georg Orlandi, Daniel Hoyer, Hongjun Zhao, James S. Bennett, Majid Benam, Kathryn Kohn and Peter Turchin was published in PLOS ONE (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289748).

[ramana]

From the paper referenced in the above report

In 1820, China’s economy accounted for 32.9% of the World’s GDP, by far the largest on earth [1]. Two hundred years later China has again claimed the distinction as the world’s largest economy (measured in terms of purchasing power parity; PPP) [2]. Between these two periods of productivity, China experienced a tumultuous period, typically dated from 1839 to 1949, which the Chinese still refer to as the “Century of Humiliation” (bainian guochi). After 1820, China’s share of world GDP began to shrink, and by 1870 it was less than half of that of Western Europe. The country suffered a series of defeats by external enemies and an extended sequence of droughts, famines, epidemics, internal strife, and rebellions. The Taiping Rebellion (1851–64), in particular, is the bloodiest civil war in recorded human history [3–5] in which over 20 million people died. China, under the Qing Dynasty during this period, became known as the “Sick Man of East Asia” (Dongya bingfu), ultimately ending in the Dynasty’s collapse in 1911.

Two points:
1) It took China 200 years to reclaim its spot in the world economy but only in PPP terms. About 33%. India is #3 in the world economy in terms of PPP but not in % terms as it was at 1700 which was 19%

2) The litany of woes is classic losing the mandate of heaven: defeat by external enemies, droughts, famines, epidemics, and rebellions.
In the case of Communist China, Mao Zedong faced many such signs of problems: external enemies (US, Russia), droughts, famines, and epidemics, and killed many more people than the 20 Million in the Taiping rebellion. However, because of his tight grip on PLA did not lose the MOH.
XJP's grip on PLA is weaker than Mao as shown by his frequent replacement of PLA commanders and the new Rocket Forces., He had his share of COVID-19 woes, and economic downturn, and is facing a demographic decline. He has made economic enemies.

[ramana]

India's ancient trade route more important than Silk Road ever was': William Dalrymple hails India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
Business Today Sep 14, 2023
https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/eco ... 2023-09-14

Dalrymple, whose new book 'The Golden Road' will be released in 2024, said the Silk Road was coined in the 19th century by German geographer Ferdinand von Richthofen and it only came into the English language in the 1930s and really became popular in the last 20-25 years.
Eminent historian William Dalrymple explains new India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC)
SUMMARY
• William Dalrymple hailed the new economic corridor saying this was the major route used for East and West trade for thousands of years
• The historian also says that China's Silk Road is a very modern idea that was coined in the 1930s and became popular in the last 20-25 years
• He says India has landed on a very ancient trade route that was more important during the classical period than the Silk Road ever was
The launch of the new India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) connecting India with the Gulf and Europe has sparked a debate about whether it could counter the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - a highly ambitious infrastructure project launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping to connect China with major Eurasian economies through infra, trade, and investment. The new corridor is billed as an alternative to BRI, which Xi projects as Beijing's move to revive China's ancient trade route network referred to as the Silk Road.
The IMEEC, ever since its launch on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, has been seen as a new route but William Dalrymple, the eminent historian and author, is of the view that this, in fact, was the major route used for East and West trade through the Red Sea for thousands of years. The historian also says that the Silk Road is a very modern idea that was coined in the 1930s.
"When people think of trade between Europe and Asia, the first thing that comes to mind is - Silk Road. That (Silk Road) is a concept of a novel route - a very romantic idea of a camel caravan laden with silk and spices crossing the Pamirs, and the traditional conception of this is something that links China with the Roman world in the Mediterranean. But Silk Road is a very modern idea," said Dalrymple while speaking to India Today's News Director Rahul Kanwal.
Dalrymple, whose new book 'The Golden Road' will be released in 2024, said the Silk Road was coined in the 19th century by German geographer Ferdinand von Richthofen and it only came into the English language in the 1930s and really became popular in the last 20-25 years.
The historian said that the Silk Road has been 'militarised' by Xi Jinping. "But if you look at the classical period in the time of the Romans, the big East-West trade had nothing to do with China at all, it was with India. It happened not over the land, but over the Red Sea. This was a major world economic route," he said, adding that there are records to back this up.
Dalrymple said that records were available of Roman geographer and economist Pliny complaining that all the gold in the Roman world was bucketing out towards India as Indians were exporting a lot. According to the historian, Pliny once said that Roman women wanted to wear silk from India, gems to cover their breasts, and other exotic goods - "Why can't they be just happy with Roman wool?"
Pliny also stated that 250 Roman cargo vessels alone were leaving from just one port in a year and sailing to India, the historian said while referring to the magnitude of the trade. Ships were operating to Bharuch in Gujarat and Muziris near Cochin in Kerala.
Balance of trade in ancient times favoured India
Dalrymple said that what is clear is that the Indians were making money through trade with Europe. He said Indians did not want to buy much from Rome - they were interested in Roman wine, they liked Roman olive oil, and they also liked a sauce called Garum, which was a very popular fish sauce. In return, Romans wanted very expensive things like ivory, spices, and gemstones. "So the balance of trade overwhelmingly was in favour of India and that is why you find tens of thousands of Roman coins. In fact, more Roman coins have been found in India than in any other country except Italy."
Why was this ancient route not known?
When asked why this major route was not as popular as the Silk Road, Dalrymple listed three major reasons - not much work on hard data, no popularisation of Indian scholarly writings, and the emergence of new evidence from Egypt. He said this idea of the Silk Road was such romantic and exciting that it had taken over everyone's consciousness in the last 20 years. "We have forgotten to look at hard data which is there very clearly in the Roman documents and archeology which is dug up."
New evidence of ancient trade found in Egypt
Dalrymple said that new evidence has emerged after excavations in the last 10 years at Muziris in Kerala, at the old site Arikamedu outside Pondicherry. He said there was a major excavation at Berenike, a major ancient seaport of Egypt. During the excavation, the historian said, the archeologist found not only a wonderful Buddha head - the first ever found in Egypt and made locally in Alexandria - but also a very early triad of Hindu gods of the early forms of Krishna and Balaram.
Muziris Papyrus: The ancient trade invoice
"The most exciting simple piece of evidence is Muziris Papyrus. It's a piece of historical document. Papyrus was dug up in Egypt. It is now kept in a museum in Vienna. And when they studied it, it was a shipping invoice," the author said, adding that this was a contract made by a ship owner in Alexandria for a supplier in Kerala. He said this is a very modern document as it has the contents of containers, the details about insurance, and legal things like what happens if the ship sinks. "And this document involves vast sums of money."
Dalrymple said that the Egyptians had done some revenue calculations based on details on Muziris Papyrus. The Roman customs used to take one-third of the import value of goods coming from India. The trade volume was so huge that the customs revenue would have alone paid for one-third of the Roman Imperial Budget, he said.
"India whether knowingly or unknowingly has landed on a very ancient trade route that in fact probably was more important during the classical period than the Silk Road ever was," Dalrymple said. "This is solid historical stuff, this is happening particularly between the first and second century BCE to about 11th-12th century CE. So about a thousand years, India has been exporting its ideas and its science in a very real and tangible way."
India-Middle East Economic Corridor
The IMEC comprises two separate corridors, the east corridor will connect India to the Gulf and the northern corridor will connect the Gulf to Europe. It will include a railway that will provide a cross-border ship-to-rail transit network to supplement existing maritime and road transport routes. The corridor, whose estimated cost is $20 billion, will enable India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe to trade with each other and with other partner countries.

Roman coins were found in and around Machilipatnam/Krishna district area. Obviously, people on the east coast were also trading with ancient Roman empire. It makes a lot of sense since Machilipatnam (earlier it used to be called Masulipatnam) was the largest and most prominent port in the southern peninsula. It was mostly from this port much of India's interactions with Southeast Asia spanning a wide spectrum areas- religion (Hinduism and Buddhism), art and architecture (the famous Amaravati School of Art), classical dances and puppet shows based on Indian epics, law and governance (a lot was adopted from the Manusmriti), language (prominently Bahasa Indonesia, Bahasa Malaya, Thai, Cambodian) and so on took place. As Darlymple rightly points out, rather very unfortunately no systematic research has ever been carried out or encouraged on India's links both with the East and the West in ancient times. It is about time our historians revisited the history of the Indian Ocean and how it was virtually the world's centre of gravity for nearly two millennia with India at the heart of it before the European colonialists completely snapped the earlier vibrant relations and imposed a new order that exclusively served their interests.

[hanumadu]

According to this video, Huawei was using ASML machines acquired before the ban and a lot of poached engineers to make their 7nm chip. We will know how they will save face for the next version. Will they go below 7nm for which you will need EUV or spout some BS about their 7nm is better than others 5 nm or 3 nm. If the chinese have been investing so much in their semiconductors, they should have at least mastered the DUV technology but from what I read so far even lithographic machines built by SMIC are largely assembled ones with components bought off the shelf. According to this video, their indigenous technology is at 90 nm. There is no telling where India is. Our semiconductor research (if it exists) is kept so secret, no body knows anything about it.

[Paul]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1705 ... 26204.html

For the past week or so, India has become a target of misinformation, contempt and racist jokes on China's internet for its growing role in Apple's manufacturing network. Ahead of the new iPhone release on Friday, some netizens are calling for boycotting India-made iPhone 15s. 1/
For the first time, Apple will sell iPhones made in India on release day. India now makes about 7% of iPhones while China is still the dominating force in Apple's manufacturing. But India's role will only increase in the next few years. 2/

And of course, "Ah San" (阿三), the derogatory nickname for Indian people have been used a lot in these discussions 13/

[bala]

History class on how CCP gained power in China.

[Vayutuvan]

https://scout.eto.tech/?

ETO Scout

Welcome to Scout, ETO's discovery tool for Chinese-language news and commentary on technology issues. Use the Scout web interface to browse and filter the latest from leading Chinese sources, or get customized updates delivered to your inbox through our email service.

[ramana]

IGNCA Book "Across the Himalayan Gap"

https://ignca.gov.in/eBooks/India_world_ks_41.pdf

[ramana]

A TL on resources to understand China


https://twitter.com/JonathonPSine/statu ... a6_2A&s=19

[ramana]

Shen Yun presents "China before Communism"
It's playing in performing theaters the world over

https://promo.shenyun.com/see-china-before-communism/