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India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

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India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 12:57

"Managing Chinese Threat" Thread was meant to do long term strategic analysis of the threat from China and to look for ways on how India and the world can deal with it.

One of the chief goals in the thread was not to let it spiral into whining, but to focus on analysis and jingoism! However considering the current Chinese incursion it is spiraling in to exactly that - whining. So I am a little worried about the fate of the thread I had created.

I believe the Chinese Incursion is simply too serious an event not to have a dedicated thread devoted to it. Moreover it seems the Chinese are not going anywhere soon. So I am starting this one.

I understand that the discussion has been going on in the other thread.

I don't know whether it would be too much to ask the moderators to shift all the posts regarding incursion to this thread. These would be all posts in "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread starting from this announcement post by chaanakya ji.

Otherwise one can continue the discussion in this thread.

The benefit of this thread is that one can look at the Indian response in more detail, and perhaps there would be whining as well.

The Chinese have decided to take on GoI. I think the incident deserves its own thread. Hope others would help in shifting to this thread.

Added Later: I was requested by Manish_Sharma to add the following posts by Rudradev ji to the this post.

Manish_Sharma wrote:Friends this is the prediction Rudradev ji made in Sep. 2011 about 'Why China would attack us, I am only taking last few parts but urge everyone who has not read it to read in full:


Monetizing Credit
Rudradev ji wrote:Because it may be that China really wants a war. Against India, with Pakistan as its ally.

China has been acting for the last several years, more aggressively than ever towards all its neighbours. Not ONE conciliatory move is made, but panga is taken with Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines AND India at every opportunity. Why?

Because China needs a war. Or at least, one very powerful faction in the Chinese govt, including the PLA, is convinced that China needs a war.

Why does this faction think China needs a war?

It's like this. Throughout the '90s, the Chinese accumulated what they thought was going to be their greatest source and permanent guarantee of wealth; forex reserves of Western currencies, and more importantly, debt owed by Western governments. Mainly the US government.

That component... debt holdings, in the form of US treasury bonds and such, grew enormously through the '00s, as the US borrowed money to finance its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Chinese export markets in the US also grew enormously in the '00s... until things reached a point where Chinese industries relied on US consumer markets to absorb a very large portion of their output.

When the '08 financial crisis hit the Western world, especially the US, China's b@lls went into their mouth. It was a double-threat for China. On the one hand, all the US debt they held could become devalued in case of a depression. On the other hand, if US consumers stopped buying things, Chinese industries (which relied on US markets to absorb their output) would suffer. The resulting impact felt at home, by the Chinese economy, could have devastating consequences for a totalitarian regime.

So what option does a country have when so much of its wealth is in the form of debt? It must monetize the debt. It must turn the debt into something real, as soon as possible, before that wealth (in the form of treasury bonds) becomes more and more devalued as a result of its debtor's financial troubles.

How can China monetize the debt it holds? Here are some ways.

1) It can demand that the US pay up. But the US doesn't have money. If the US prints money, then China's own holdings become further devalued (as it happened with QE2, which further aggravated the situation.) Same for other Western countries, such as EU nations, which are also reeling financially.

2) It can print money and inject it into its own economy to increase domestic consumption. But this will inevitably lead to inflation, and cause civil unrest. Very bad idea, beyond narrow limits. Keeping tight control over money supply is much healthier from a totalitarian regime's point of view.

3) It can invest money into tinpot countries and gain goodwill. To some extent China has been doing this. But sooner or later, some returns have to be there no? So far, what returns have been generated by China's magnanimous projects in Sudan, Zimbabwe etc.?

4) It can start a war. It can arm up, invest wholesale in defense R&D, in procurement of foreign weapons systems and manufacture of its own weapons systems. And it can use these weapons systems in the pursuit of other kinds of power... geostrategic power. An additional benefit to this method of monetizing its debt is that it does not lead to civil unrest (at least as long as China can claim victory) but rather, to an upsurge in jingoistic nationalism that strengthens the position of an authoritarian government.

There you have it. Starting a war is likely considered a good option, given the prevailing economic situation, by a powerful faction within the ruling establishment of China. The US and West do not care if China starts a war with India; it will damage two of their biggest competitors. And Pakistanis of Section B, above, very much want this to happen and want to participate on the Chinese side.

The ONLY thing that would make the Chinese hesitate in starting a war with India would be India's possession of a credible nuclear deterrent. And what has Bharat Karnad told us, between the lines, about that?

In summary, I am guessing that the GOI has understood all this. It understands that the danger of a two-front aggression by China and Pakistan is not just real but imminent. It has calculated that we cannot win, and that we cannot count on external help to win. It may have calculated (ref: Karnad) that we do not even have a credible nuclear deterrent to prevent this from happening.

So in a sense, just as we are the only hope for Pakis of Sections D and E... Pakis of Sections D and E are our only hope to avert disaster. That's why we're seeing the policies we're seeing, IMHO.


Economic Drivers of Militarism
Rudradev ji wrote: Gakakkad ji, the answer to your question "why go to war, why not just invest in weapons" is borne out by a truism which we have seen in action ever since WW I. The existence of a military industrial complex in modern states, inevitably leads to military conflict.

China has ALREADY been investing in weapons R&D, manufacture and procurement since the late '90s, more and more throughout the last decade. Now it is doing so even more intensely as a means of monetizing its debt. But as this happens, the pressure to use what has been accumulated, is also rising. Let me try to explain with an example.

Every year in the CPC politburo, different factions have to come up with requests for budget allocation. One very powerful faction may be the Militarists... PLA plus defense/armaments contractors. They are the ones who stand to benefit, when China decides to monetize its debt by investing in weapons R&D and procurement.

But there are other factions also. Let us say, in 2003, the Militarists put forth a budget of $10 billion (just a random figure.) Meanwhile, some party member from Shenyang wants $2 billion to build a Hello Kitty amusement park. Some other guy from Harbin wants $5 billion for a dam/irrigation project.

The Militarists insist that they should get the priority. After all China is in danger. Japan is acting tough on Senkoku Island. India has recently tested nukes and they might weaponize soon. Dalai Lama said something threatening in his speech.

Also, CPC economic czars favour the idea of spurring the economy by spending on defense, so the Shenyang guy and the Harbin guy are denied. The money is granted to the Militarists to manufacture SSNs and aircraft carriers.

This goes on every year. Let us say in 2009, the Militarists want $20 billion. They say that Taiwan is behaving very aggressively, Vietnam is taking control of the Spratly Islands, India is raising mountain divisions in "South Tibet" etc.

This time the Shenyang Hello Kitty guy and the Harbin Dam/Irrigation guy are more adamant in their refutation. They say, "we already had to go without funds because you Militarists were talking about Japan/Senkoku and Indian nukes in 2003. You got your money, what did you do with it? How are we more secure?"

However, once again the CPC czars favour the idea of monetizing the debt by spending on defense. So they give the Militarists $20 billion to spend on JF-17s, BMP knockoffs, IRBMs and whatever else.

But at the same time, pressure from the factions opposed to the Militarists is rising. Pretty soon the Militarists have to show results to justify all the money they have been getting, and the money they plan to keep getting in future.

One day in 2011, news comes that India is about to test the Agni V. This is a moment-of-truth for the Militarists. They HAVE to do something to justify the funds they have been getting all this time, at the expense of other interests, in order to keep future tranches of money flowing.

Note that at this time, even the opposition from the other Non-Militarist factions in the Politburo works in favour of starting a war. In my example, the Harbin guy and the Shenyang guy will start asking: "you have been taking money for years and years, while we have had to do without the Hello Kitty Amusement Park and the Dam. Now you tell us that India may soon have missiles capable of reaching Harbin! Meanwhile your precious SSNs and Carriers are rusting in the harbour. You have been given what you asked for in terms of budget, how are you going to serve our interests?"

The Militarists have painted themselves into a corner with their justifications for building a Military Industrial Complex. Their only choice is to say, now is the time, and manufacture a case for war. They go to town with propaganda, declaring that Vietnamese aggression in the South China Sea has reached unacceptable limits; that the ally Pakistan is now more anti-US than ever before; that the US is now weak and not likely to interfere in any war prosecuted by China; that India must be crushed before it deploys Agni III and test Agni V. They drum up a war-beat of "now or never."

Conflict is then a fait accompli; as it was for the Germans in 1914, the Americans in 1965 and 2003, the Russians in 1980. The political dynamics of a Military Industrial Complex will necessarily shift the equilibrium towards war. Whether it's a constitutional monarchy or a democracy or a socialist republic or a dictatorship doesn't matter. It always happens.

Of course, the factions opposed to the Militarists in the CPC politburo, will right at this moment be advancing the same counter-arguments against war that you have cited. India can cause a lot of pain in retaliation; Security Council will not support us; other countries like SoKo/Japan will get more nervous.

But given historical precedent, all these sensible reasons are simply ignored or consumed by war hysteria, which the Militarists are trying to build up. For everything there is a counter argument: India will only become more powerful given time, we must consolidate "Southern Tibet" or we will lose our chance, India must be taught a lesson before it commits to increasing naval presence in the South China Sea or forming a military alliance with US/Japan/Australia. Given the political momentum, war is inevitable.

*****

Now to Kanson's question about Taiwan. If PRC wanted a war, why would they pick India and not Taiwan? I think the answer is, they're still not sure (despite US' apparent weakness) that US and Japan will not rush to Taiwan's defense. However, they may calculate that this is not true of India. With Pakistan on their side, and US staying out of the conflict, the PRC Militarists may feel more confident of securing a military "victory" against India than one against Taiwan.

Also, Kanson, about Agni V testing this year. If it happens, it is a good thing. It is a sign that we are not idly waiting with the axe over our heads, that we are trying to close the window of opportunity for China to prosecute a two-front war against us. Still, for the present Agni V is untested and I don't know if Agni III is even deployed. IF what Bharat Karnad says is true, 20kT weapons is the most we have. So the assessment, that GOI is trying very hard to avoid war by courting certain factions within Pakistan, holds good.

Fortunately, as we all know, Agni V was successfully tested since the time I made this post.
Last edited by RajeshA on 01 May 2013 02:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 13:25

Saar, it is mostly a matter of the corruption and incompetence of our own rulers. Why blame vultures for doing their job. So the real war should be between the people and the ruling establishment.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 13:45

Also, we would like to have full clarity about the situation before a proper assessment can be made. Some questions I posted in the other thread -
What is exasperating is the complete lack of clarity from anywhere. What are the coordinates of Chinese camp, is it surrounded, is it getting resupplied, what has gone on in the flag meetings, whether there have been any written statements from Chinese side, coordinates of the "fortifications" to which they have objected, what is our perception of the LAC, what is our perception of their perception of the LAC, whether the said fortifications fall in our perception of the disputed zone, when the said fortifications were built etc etc.


None of that is a secret, it is already known to the Chinese. The Indian govt should not hide the facts from its people.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Virendra » 30 Apr 2013 13:54

I think RD's posts that he quoted on Manish's request, are quite revealing.
If we contrast this to the GoI's approach and their cheap ways of preparing ground for telling India that 'All is well'; one would know what is coming.
I think we will have to fight a war sooner or later.
We cannot escape it. Even if the sissies sitting in Delhi keep surrending land in border areas.
The Chinese are calculative yes, but now that they've calculated the gaping weakness in Indian leadership, they will ne ruthless in execution.
At the end of the day whatever comes by such incursions is a gain for them; be it usable land or a strategically important pack of rocks like in Ladakh and Kargil.
Boils my blood that some of our own are trying to argue that what we're losing is not our own but disputed.
Why disputed? ..... oh you don't know? Because the Chinese said so.
:evil:

Regards,
Virendra

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 14:03

Pranav ji,

As far as constructing the narrative is concerned, I am against calling our leaders "incompetent". No incompetence has been a "Get-of-Jail-Free" card.

Anybody and everybody is smudged with the label of "incompetence", but later on these so called leaders still hang around in politics due to their networks and caste followings.

No, Indians do not lose wars because of "incompetence". We lose wars because of "treason" of compromised "leaders"!

The treason may not be visible up front, but treason is to be measured by continuously giving in to various vested interests who may be controlled by global power brokers.

It is not "incompetence" that does a leader in, it is the leader's inability to act in the interests of the nation - which I call "treason".

So I think we should take away such excuses off the table like

- we were taken unawares
- our trust has been abused
- war is not an option
- diplomacy should be given a chance
- the military is not ready
- "incompetent" leader

If a country violates our core interests, our borders, our integrity, then it is an act of war, and war should be given to the other.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 14:08

If a country violates our core interests, our borders, our integrity, then it is an act of war, and war should be given to the other.

Then there is no scope for deal-making. Deal making can be done when one is fighting proxy-wars in third countries, or one is dealing with the spoils of war in third countries. Deal making can be done when one has lost the war completely and wants to save one's people and cultural treasure for a battle another day.

What the current leadership in India seems to be doing with talking with the Chinese is simply making a deal, and in a deal we would lose!

Let's say the UPA government manages to convince the Chinese to retreat. The question is then - what have we pledged to them in return? And if we act like this, then we set a precedent, where the Chinese or some other country can always take liberties with us, walk in into our lands and force us to act favorably to them! Is that sovereignty?

So such incursions can SOLELY be dealt with doing war upon the aggressor! The consequences of aggression should always be clear to the aggressor. We cannot have ambiguity there. The moment we allow ourselves to show restraint, we have lost the war and we have lost our self-respect for the next 50 years! The consequences of such dilly-dallying are too profound.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 14:10

RajeshA wrote:Pranav ji,

As far as constructing the narrative is concerned, I am against calling our leaders "incompetent". No incompetence has been a "Get-of-Jail-Free" card.

Anybody and everybody is smudged with the label of "incompetence", but later on these so called leaders still hang around in politics due to their networks and caste followings.

No, Indians do not lose wars because of "incompetence". We lose wars because of "treason" of compromised "leaders"!


OK, call it treason if you will. Secret bank accounts in Macao could be a factor.

But the fact remains that we cannot deal with an external adversary as long as we are controlled by an internal enemy. So dealing with the internal enemy is the first priority.

And the questions in my previous post do need to be answered before one can make any policy prescriptions.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Chandragupta » 30 Apr 2013 14:38

Rajesh ji, unless the Oxford dictionary has started defining 'War' as cowering, dhoti shivering and traitorous sell out, I think the title of this topic is misleading.

All that will happen is the anti-National Italian Gang ruling over India will do a backroom deal with China and have their pimps in the Media glorify that as a strong & definitive action.

For a real war, we will have to wait for a government that actually gives two hoots for this sacred land. And when that happens, I hope we take Tibet along with Kailash-Mansarovar. I will make a pilgrimage with the Indian tricolor pinned on my chest. I am also willing to do one before we take them, preferably with a RPG and an AK-47.
Last edited by Chandragupta on 30 Apr 2013 14:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 14:40

Pranav wrote:Why blame vultures for doing their job. So the real war should be between the people and the ruling establishment.


Pranav ji,

such logic can go very wrong! It is like - "Why blame the rapist, when the parents did not teach their girl to wear modest clothes?" kind of logic.

The anger at the attacker should not be diverted towards the less than spectacular defender, though the later deserves his own portion of the anger.

Secondly the diversion of the public anger internally towards the ruling dispensation can be part of the strategic calculations of the attacking party.

So I think a more productive attitude is
  1. Target the anger and hostility at the attacker, making it durable
  2. Push the current regime to act forcefully against the attacker - all tools should be used like Deshbhakti Crescendo, Urge to Act, Criticism, etc.
  3. Be on the lookout for any sell-out deals
  4. Make the regime pay if they are less than successful, either when one has seen long enough that they are unwilling to act, or at election time

But our anti-Chinese attitude in the country among the people should harden! This is not business as usual.

After this incident, though one can continue to deal with various factions inside China who may have been against this incursion, if there are any such, but in general, all economic relations with China, all strategic cooperation with China should come to an end. They are the enemy! And that should be clear to all of India!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 14:43

RajeshA wrote:such logic can go very wrong! It is like - "Why blame the rapist, when the parents did not teach their girl to wear modest clothes?" kind of logic.


So you want to go and fight external enemy while you are still enslaved and controlled by internal enemy?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 14:46

Chandragupta wrote:Rajesh ji, unless the Oxford dictionary has started defining 'War' as cowering, dhoti shivering and traitorous sell out, I think the title of this topic is misleading.

All that will happen is the anti-National Italian Gang ruling over India will do a backroom deal with China and have their pimps in the Media glorify that as a strong & definitive action.


Chandragupta ji,

I first wanted to simply write the topic title as - "Chinese Incursion into India 2013". But I edited it again.

The point is China has already declared War against India. We are in War. If the Indian side is still scampering to look for some response, it does not mean that the war is not there. The War is there as long as one side has declared war.

It is another matter how this war ends - with a backroom deal, or with a fight, or with the Chinese coming to their senses.

But the War is there! With the title, I want Indians to know that.

Of course, journalists from "The Hindu" would say this is war-mongering, but as far as I know I am not calling out for Indian jawans to go and occupy Chengdu!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rohitvats » 30 Apr 2013 15:01

Why do we need another thread for whine fest about all that ails India from selfish and nepotistic elite to ideologically compromised intelligentsia...Don't we do that in every thread?

How about for a hard nosed analysis and gathering of information on the subject? About interplay of complex geopolitical scenarios (present and future), Indian and Chinese military capability, internal Chinese power-jockeying, economic scenario...something which throws up a good picture of things as they are and about to come.

We should also debate on the Chinese strategy behind keeping border question open-ended and try and fathom what can be likely positions to settle the situation on ground.

Sorry for the harsh words, but all I foresee is another round of political bashing, lectures on dharma-adharma and whine fest about con mafia and Italian connections.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Neela » 30 Apr 2013 15:01

Pranav
For heaven's sake man, get a grip over yourself and stop wailing in every thread there is.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Neela » 30 Apr 2013 15:02

Glad to see two people doing the same thing at the same time.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 15:04

Pranav wrote:
RajeshA wrote:such logic can go very wrong! It is like - "Why blame the rapist, when the parents did not teach their girl to wear modest clothes?" kind of logic.


So you want to go and fight external enemy while you are still enslaved and controlled by internal enemy?


Do we have the luxury of choosing the moment we have to go to war, especially when we are under attack?

If the fire has started in the neighborhood, would you go out to help put out the fire, or would you take time off and try to build your house with thermal insulation materials like PBI etc.

Secondly when the war starts, decision making to a large extent moves to the military! The Indian military would do what is necessary, even if the politicians in Delhi are compromised.

All we can do is
  1. Build up a national hostility towards the Chinese
  2. Support the military
  3. Urge the current leadership to act
  4. Never forget their role. Change the leadership when time comes, and throw it in the dustbin forever

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 15:08

rohitvats ji,

the thread is meant as a dedicated thread for this incursion and whatever turns this take.

It is per se, not meant for whining. But one can hardly stop the whining, if some wish to let out their frustrations.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rohitvats » 30 Apr 2013 15:21

RajeshA wrote:rohitvats ji,

the thread is meant as a dedicated thread for this incursion and whatever turns this take.

It is per se, not meant for whining. But one can hardly stop the whining, if some wish to let out their frustrations.


I understand that...I want this thread to become repository of knowledge about the Chinese in all aspects. A single place we store information and post analysis.

In fact, if I have my way, I would want a China Study Group formed here on BRF itself. There are dedicated threads for China Military Watch, Chinese Economy and PRC in general. I would like a thread where all this information is collected for posterity.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 15:25

rohitvats ji,

Often there is much material, but what lacks is the classification, categorization, tagging, indexing, cross-referencing, etc. A wiki format is often more useful.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 17:00

RajeshA wrote:
Pranav wrote:
So you want to go and fight external enemy while you are still enslaved and controlled by internal enemy?


Do we have the luxury of choosing the moment we have to go to war, especially when we are under attack?


You don't ... but the problem is that you have already been attacked, defeated and enslaved. The enemy is sitting ruling over you, and is controlling all national decisions.

Perhaps you may be able to gather some people, pool your life savings, buy some AK 47's and personally go to DBO to do something.

But that aside, if you want to make this thread a repository of data, as suggested by Rohitvats ji, then that could be useful.
Last edited by Pranav on 30 Apr 2013 17:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 17:06

Also RajeshA ji, before deciding what to do you need answers to some very basic and elementary questions which I have posed above in this thread.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 17:17

Pranav wrote:
Pranav wrote:So you want to go and fight external enemy while you are still enslaved and controlled by internal enemy?
RajeshA wrote:Do we have the luxury of choosing the moment we have to go to war, especially when we are under attack?

You don't ... but the problem is that you have already been attacked, defeated and enslaved. The enemy is sitting ruling over you, and is controlling all national decisions.

Perhaps you may be able to gather some people, pool your life savings, buy some AK 47's and personally go to DBO to do something.


Pranav ji,

the most important dealing one makes with the enemy is in identifying him, and exposing him.

Often it is easier to identify and expose an external enemy like China which has decided to invade Indian territory. It is clean-cut! So when the exposure has occurred so obviously, one should take the chance and call out China as the enemy.

As far as the internal enemy is concerned, the exposure has been an ongoing uphill battle. This incident may or may not help in exposing the internal enemies.

So we should let the internal enemy hang by its own rope, when it makes concessions to the external enemy and thus exposes itself.

It is however by demanding action on the external enemy that one would be able to expose the internal enemy as well. So it is better to concentrate on the external enemy.

Shifting the discourse to the internal enemy just yet benefits both the external enemy as well as the internal enemy, because one fails to project the external enemy as a threat, as an aggressor, and thus any deal that the internal enemy makes with the external enemy fails to be seen as "treason", ultimately helping the internal enemy as well.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 17:19

Pranav wrote:Also RajeshA ji, before deciding what to do you need answers to some very basic and elementary questions which I have posed above in this thread.


And so we keep pushing the Govt. to divulge all the necessary information. Parliament should be asking these questions incessantly.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rsingh » 30 Apr 2013 17:35

India- China War 2013? That is bit overdoing.When there will be war,China will suffer and world will know that China miscalculated.

It is not war as yet. They are just provoking us to go to war on their terms. We have to weigh our options, cover our weak spots. Give diplomacy some time to bring desired results. Big responsible countries do not go tearing each other's cloths on the slightest pretext. Once the war starts...........biggest question will be how to stop it and come out of it as winner. There is a very good article on Indian diplomacy in "good post thread". It shows that we are as much as isolated as Timboktoo . No body will come to our help. All our friends are tamashgirs when it comes to side with India in any conflict. So better think twice before getting into some trap.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 17:53

rsingh ji,

I don't agree with you! Indian Diplomacy has no role to play here!

Imagine if a Chinese warship were to come and dock at some Hawaii island and claim it for itself and not move for weeks! Would USA still be pursuing diplomatic avenues to deal with the conflict?

There is no diplomatic solution to this! Any diplomatic solution means giving some concession to some party (China), or using the good offices of some party for a price (USA)! If you give any concession to anybody or let yourself be manipulated into using "good offices" then you are setting yourself up for repeated blackmail and harassment!

So diplomacy is anathema at the moment!

Most importantly you don't go to them to talk as FM Salman Khurshid proposes on doing. You do it at some neutral avenue and you use the opportunity only to put down conditions of when you want the area cleared and what kind of apology you wish to receive!

Anything other than that and you're allowing yourself to become a secondary pawn in the game of global power!

It really doesn't matter how China retaliates and escalates. That would just harden the enmity to such an extent that Chinese would be hunted down and terrorized around the globe, nor would Indians have any second thoughts of giving Uyghurs all the nuclear material they need!

The ladder to escalation is endless! And it is our duty to let Chinese know, that they would be the first ones to blink and start climbing down!

Afghans have finished two super-powers. Vietnam has given a bloody nose to two super-powers!

Pride is the most essential nutrition of a nation! If the Indian Govt. starts selling that off then there is going to be another generation of Dhimmi, Macaulayite and Commie-Sinic shitts born in India!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shiv » 30 Apr 2013 18:01

Pranav wrote:Saar, it is mostly a matter of the corruption and incompetence of our own rulers. Why blame vultures for doing their job. So the real war should be between the people and the ruling establishment.

:rotfl:
The Chinese blame us. Indians also blame us.

Typical.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Virendra » 30 Apr 2013 18:15

There are too many heads and each with their own diverse interests.
Pisculars, Leftists, Rightists (although these aren't Indic terms at all), WKKs, Aman ki Asha's and Dharmics.
In such a mumbo jumbo, it is hard to have clarity and establish one sane voice broadcast the national stand.
The day it happens, we will see no more of such incursions with painfully muted hearts.

As of now, I want to know whether the Army posted two more tents in response to the 5th Chinese tent.
Any updates? It is important that we tell them "We will match you eyeball to eyeball, boot strap to boot strap."
Otherwise they will make these things a source of their entertainment whenever a PLA General feels boredom.

Regards,
Virendra

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 18:18

shiv wrote:
Pranav wrote:Saar, it is mostly a matter of the corruption and incompetence of our own rulers. Why blame vultures for doing their job. So the real war should be between the people and the ruling establishment.

:rotfl:
The Chinese blame us. Indians also blame us.

Typical.


Saar, if you are part of the ruling establishment then yes, you are blame-worthy.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 30 Apr 2013 18:20

RajeshA ji, it seems you want to make this an emotional sort of thread, notwithstanding the fact that we are lacking in data about the incident.

I think it would be best to make it a repository for data and analysis.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 18:36

Pranav ji,

this thread is even open to whining, so why reject "emotionalism"?

Of course often the leftists taunt nationalists with "emotionalism", as if that runs counter to "logic". But that is an old taunt. Every strong nation in the world lives off some "pride"! So "pride" cannot be a taunt against Indians when it is permissible for all the other people in the world!

Of course, then we have the usual Indian saying, "Doosrey kooeyn men koodenge to tum bhi kood jaaoge kya?" to which one can ask "Doosrey amrit bhogenge, to tum kya koney men dekhte rahoge kya?". What it clarifies is what quantity each values in the national discourse!

"Pride" is an important quantity for promoting national cohesion and forward drive - the main raison d'être for a nation. Pride is very much a tangible quantity and as such "emotionalism" is a poor criticism of it that does not really stick!

And since when is jingoism not a part of BRF? :wink:

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 18:40

Pranav wrote:I think it would be best to make it a repository for data and analysis.


That too is a function of this thread!

But discussion is also part of the mix. What use is dry data if it doesn't move a thing - either in China, in GoI or within us?!

rohitvats ji has spoken in favor of having a China Study Group where information is collected for posterity. But this thread deals with everything around this incident.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:12

Published on Apr 30, 2013
Chinese troops may never leave Ladakh: Intelligence officials: IBN Live

New Delhi: Chinese troops, who have intruded almost 19 kms into the Indian territory in Ladakh, may never leave the area. According to assessments by senior government and intelligence officials China's People's Liberation Army soldiers camped in Raki Nullah in eastern Ladakh may never go back across the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Sources say China may have initiated the intrusion to see how India would react on the ground. Until now India's response has been only diplomatic even though it has been 15 days since the Chinese soldiers simply walked over to the Indian side and set up tents. There has been no military action by the Indian side.

They say India has no leverage to get them to return as any military action by India now carries the risk of the Chinese escalating the issue. If India camps in Chinese territory then China could occupy more Indian areas close to the LAC as it has far more forces at its disposal than India.

So India may be wary of surrounding the Chinese camp and cutting off their supplies. This manoeuvre should have been carried out at the beginning of the face-off.

The Chinese could declare their intention to resolve the face-off during the visit of the Chinese premier Li Keqiang in May. But that would only underscore India's own weakness on the ground and may set the stage for more Chinese provocations.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:23

Published on Apr 30, 2013
By Venky Vembu
Living in denial is not how India should deal with China’s incursion: First Post

A whole lot more defeatist crap from Indian journalists!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby panduranghari » 30 Apr 2013 19:30

RajeshA wrote:If a country violates our core interests, our borders, our integrity, then it is an act of war, and war should be given to the other.

Then there is no scope for deal-making. Deal making can be done when one is fighting proxy-wars in third countries, or one is dealing with the spoils of war in third countries. Deal making can be done when one has lost the war completely and wants to save one's people and cultural treasure for a battle another day.

What the current leadership in India seems to be doing with talking with the Chinese is simply making a deal, and in a deal we would lose!

Let's say the UPA government manages to convince the Chinese to retreat. The question is then - what have we pledged to them in return? And if we act like this, then we set a precedent, where the Chinese or some other country can always take liberties with us, walk in into our lands and force us to act favorably to them! Is that sovereignty?

So such incursions can SOLELY be dealt with doing war upon the aggressor! The consequences of aggression should always be clear to the aggressor. We cannot have ambiguity there. The moment we allow ourselves to show restraint, we have lost the war and we have lost our self-respect for the next 50 years! The consequences of such dilly-dallying are too profound.



Sun Tzu said," Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

The first part of this statement applies to Chinese while second bit applies to UPA who will most likely take us into war to prevent complete decimation in the polls.

All in all seems we are stuffed. Heads should roll. Frenchies got it right in the 14th century.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:40

Cross-posting from "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread

Klaus wrote:The Indian establishment should have realized that the Maldives and Sri Lanka episodes of late 2012 and early 2013 were just the preludes to the main course being served up by the PLA in the north.


I think PLA knows that India is going to take a new trajectory soon, and wants to deliver another 1962 to put us down!

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING SHOULD PUT US DOWN!

China should know that we have not forgotten 1962 and in fact it helped kick-start India's militarization. China should know a conflict in 2013 with 24/7 News coverage and Social Media simply means that they are going to hyper-charge the Bharatiya spirit and it is not going to calm down till China is pushed back to being a dirty neighborhood in Beijing!

Bring it On! Nothing can be better!

Whatever happens, it would finish off the anti-national monkeys in India!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:41

Cross-posting from "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread

Pranav wrote:
Carl wrote:
chellaney says India needs to reopen the 'core issue' :mrgreen: of tibet.
Acharya wrote:Because it is the right time. World opinion is against PRC or neutral to PRC right now

PRC is caught in complex global world which it does not have much to maneuver.


What is needed is firmness and strength, but without unnecessary hostility. Maybe Namo would be able to handle it right.

In the past both India and China have been manipulated by west for their own interest.


I think this is wrong!

Why is hostility being discarded as a tool of war?
Why is hostility being considered as some inferior frame of mind not deserving of sitting in the war room or at the cabinet meeting?
Why are we so afraid to embrace hostility? Would it make us lose our standing in the community of nations as logical people?

Hostility is a powerful emotion that is needed in our leadership and in our people!

- Due to hostility, Indians can be moved to completely boycott Chinese products, Chinese components, Chinese services and Chinese businesses.

- Due to hostility, Indian leadership can be moved to not let a few nice words from the Chinese totally disarm them, making their hopes of peace rise sky-high!

- Due to hostility, Indian leadership can start thinking of adopting an aggressive offensive forward strategy against China on the border and elsewhere.

- Due to hostility, we can make the necessary changes in our MIC on a war-footing, driven by something more than "analysis"!

The Chinese take over our land, and we should not be hostile towards them!!! :shock: We should embrace hostility at every level, and vow to push them off our land, not just our land they have camped in since a few days, but our land in Tibet as well!

It is because in some quarters which think emotions are below us, that we have come to this stage of dispassionate laid-back attitude! Yes in a highly self-aware confident missionary society, it may have been different but we are not there by a long shot, and in this situation, it is only the highly charged emotions that would help us lift our sorry asses and give the enemy a bloody nose!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:42

Cross-posting from "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread

brihaspati wrote:Actually - contrary to the claim that "internationalizing == leaking" is a way to pressurize the Chinese to "stop" or "withdraw", with no other country taking up any cudgel on behalf of India, "leaking" has now actually made it such a public issue that the Chinese will make it into a "loss of face" issue.

Whatever GOI had to do - bash up the PLA soldiers or given ultimatums or given concessions to land where not even a blade of grass grows - should have been done very very quietly, or on ambush mode.


In fact it is important that they lose face. In fact we should make it a policy that they lose face each and every time.

Only if there is an outright and glaring loss of face would the Chinese be more careful next time. Any party in China, some PLA commander or some CPC apparatchik, whoever wanted to needle India should be discredited in a maximum manner. It is important that the person in China who started this, that he be hurt politically by the rest. If this does not happen, whoever started this game with India, and he ends up providing Indian land to China, he would be rewarded and he would be able to boast of his cunning and strategic planning. And then there will be more PLA generals who would want to replicate that success.

So it is extremely important that the PLA hawk who started this, that he be discredited among his peers and CPC.

After disgracing the PLA, if we don't know who started it, our media should pick a few names from their hierarchy and start putting the blame on them and laughing at their stupidity. Sooner or later, someone would defend himself and tell who the responsible party was.

How China deals with its shaming and 'loss of face' is not our concern. They will find some way of putting some spin on it. Let them do it if they want to. We can put out our own version.

We should for the moment be focused only on giving the Chinese a good licking, a good solid punishment for their arrogance!

This Indian Foreign Minister should demand withdrawal of troops. There is nothing to negotiate or talk about here! The situation is clear and our response should be similarly clear!

And whatever our response is, it should be designed for two clear objectives
  1. Securing Indian territory!
  2. Ensuring Chinese Loss of Face!

Simply securing our own territory is INSUFFICIENT! Chinese loss of face is a MUST!

If there is no loss of face for China, this incursion would end up in the history books as another mini-1962 where the loss of life on our side may be less, but a loss of honor would be just as much!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby pentaiah » 30 Apr 2013 19:42

So our deterent against TSP as well as PRC has failed.

They seem to be toying at will no?

why and how are managing the threat when under threat we are engaging them in platitudes rather than with guns?


Are there any important tips in the thread be prepared for aa defeat b Chinese.

I think we must form a high powered committee under Naryana murty , N Ram, MJ Akbar and find ways to link Hindu terror (Hindu news paper I mean) and Chinese ocupation of India territory to save Indians from terror.
Last edited by pentaiah on 30 Apr 2013 19:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Virendra » 30 Apr 2013 19:43

What about the winters when it will be impossible to live in those tents?
Will the Chinese make permanent structures before it is tough winter time? Or will they retreat?
We should prepare for the worst, that is, if they start making a permanent structure there.

Regards,
Virendra

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:44

Cross-posting from "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread

I think much of the problem at the moment in India is that the people are not considered a valuable part of the foreign policy making mechanism.

One needs to just see how Internet Chinese have been spouting hate and venom at USA and Japan. There is no let up! I can't say how much direct discussion there is between the Chinese state and the people on foreign policy, but the establishment in China has sufficient agents working in social media, who start a "hostility" campaign to suit the nationalistic impulses of the regime there.

On the other hand, usually we have an Indian Government which often tries to keep things hidden from the Indian people, until something or the other comes up, and even then the mainstream media does not carry any nationalist message on the issue.

If China can afford to keep its people constantly in a heightened sense of hurt due to USA and Japan and then often uses this "hurt" sentiment to demand concessions from others, why is that not possible in India. Especially in a democracy, it should be the sentiment of the people which should influence foreign policy.

I personally am against friendship with a country AND its people if they show imperialistic designs on us. Our "Hostility" towards the Chinese should be greater than any "Hostility" their government can create against us.

It is usually the country with less "hostility" than ends up making concessions. It is usually the country with more "hostility" that keeps on pushing the other country.

However as Indians we have a difficulty having "hostility" towards another people or country. We try to restrict towards whom our "hostility" is directed, and often we just forget it, when that instance does some taqiyyah and throws around some nice words.

"Hostility" needs to be sustained over a few generations!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 30 Apr 2013 19:46

Cross-posting from "Managing Chinese Threat" Thread

harbans wrote:After making a claim for KM as Indian and Tibet that we want it independent, we don;t stop trade. We only alter our maps and reiterate politely that we would like to see this change accomplished from China without recourse to violence etc. Yet it is important to note that we can in 24 hours make that policy change without engaging in war and without recourse to trade embargo etc. For a change it will be Chinese who will not know what action to take, what to say if we take recourse to the above. We can have peaceful chai biskoot sessions over the next year clearing our pov. We need not involve Myanmar/ Nepal for all this. We will look like hegemonists and land grabbers trying to take over lands where people don't want to be with us. People will laugh us off on Tibet and KM too for that matter.


harbans ji,

Islam has taken beatings - most notably in Spain, but also in the Indian Subcontinent. But Islam has never let go of its claims. This is what we have to internalize. Historical claims are sacred and no political dispensation in the India can afford to barter them away in some negotiation! Period!

However we have had even BJP doing bartering.

So if you do it once, others would push us to keep on doing it! Even if we start claiming Tibet, what does it change? Is it not possible that another government could come in India, which would again sell our claims, in fact for nothing! How often has Congress used Kandahar as a pretext to give in to Pakistani terror. So even if say some nationalist government in India derecognizes Tibet as part of China, the next government in India can again recognize Tibet as part of China, and claim that in June 2003, a BJP government had once done the same!

So empty claims are not what moves the world. It is a sacred policy of a nation never to barter away its claims. And even more importantly it is a continuous policy by governments of whatever hue that come to power to singlemindedly and resolutely work to realize those claims. Without such behavior, our pronouncements would lack the seriousness.

We have to walk the talk!

We have allowed our "near abroad" - Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar, even Bangladesh to fall into the lap of the Chinese! Where is our resolve?

We need to first fix our heads! Then we need to fix our country! Then we need to fix our "friends" in the neighborhood! Then we need to fix China and liberate Tibet!

At the moment any claims over Tibet would only be used by China to justify its invasion of our territories!

I think we need to first have a little fight with China. Get it to back off. Then we need to start this program of pushing China back!

We give the Chinese a real fight. If we win then our soldiers would have deserved it.

If we lose a little border fight against China, even that is okay! Everything would help us steel ourselves! It would help us wash the Nehruvian Defeatist Muck hanging on to our minds and prepare our bodies, it would steel up our frames! We should have gotten rid of the Nehruvian Defeatist Muck in 1962 itself, but for some reason we again bought into his jargon! 2013 could help us get rid of the Nehruvian Defeatist Muck!

So whatever happens, it is going to be good for the Bharatiya Mind!


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