SSridhar Ji :
Peregrine wrote:This should give the Chinese many a "Thought" about the Development of Gwadar!
Peregrine ji, yes, but the Chinese are already aware of the dangers, but in their strategic analysis, taking over the Gwadar port and laying a rail-cum-road corridor from there to Kashgar are far more important perhaps than minor 'safety-related issues' which they would leave to the PA to sort out. The PA have already co-opted the sarkari jihadists into Balochistan, by all accounts, for this purpose. Also, the PLA soldiers are the 'workers' in this project and they would be well protected by the time the project comes down to the plains of Balochistan from the Karakorams. Unlike the US, the PA would not be allowed by the Chinese to play a fraudulent double role. Besides, the BLA has some disruptive value but nothing beyond that. GoP will never have the will to expel the Chinese like what the Myanmar government did with its Myitsone dam project. The Chinese have invested far too much into this project already for them to walk away now.
The much touted Gwadar Kashgar Rail-cum-road Corridor, methinks is highly over-rated.
The CARs and Xinjiang are at the moment routing their “International Trade” as well as Trade with Eastern Main Land China by the Trans Siberian and the Chinese Railway System.
The Chinese Railway System is of Standard Guage 1,435and the Russian along with the CARs have a gauge between 1,520 mm and 1,524 mm and a cursory viewing of the CARs Annual Trade pattern – from http://www.cia.gov
- does not indicated any significant Trade with South Asia except Kyrgyzstan Imports about US$ 126,000 from UAE and Uzbekistan Exports about US$ 907,000 to Bangladesh.
The Pipe Lines from Kyaukpyu to Kunming and onwards were to be completed by May but are stalled for various reasons. I am sure that within the next Three to Six months the Chinese will commence the Pumping Oil and Natural Gas.Link
The oil pipeline starts in Kyaukpyu, in western Myanmar, enters China at Ruili, in western Yunnan Province, then heads to Chongqing. The 2,400 kilometer pipeline is intended to bring 23 million tons of Middle Eastern and African oil into the country every year.
In June 2010, a joint venture established by CNPC and Myanmar Oil & Gas Enterprise (MOGE) started work on the oil pipeline, which had estimated total investment of US$ 1.5 billion. CPP started work on the China section three months later.
The natural gas pipeline runs from Maday Island in Myanmar, also enters China at Ruili, and ends in the Guangxi region. The 2,500 kilometer pipeline is designed to handle 12 billion cubic meters of natural gas from an offshore field in Myanmar annually.
Six companies – a CNPC subsidiary, MOGE, two South Korean firms and two Indian concerns – formed a joint venture to invest a total of US$ 1 billion in the project. Work on the two parts of the gas pipeline started at the same time as that for the oil pipeline.
As things stand I do not foresee any Commercial Development in Gwadar but, of course, the Strategic Agenda of China “Encircling India” should be the real issue. I think that the principle Chinese agenda in developing the Gwadar - Kashgar Link is to eventually control Balochistan!