Eastern Europe/Ukraine

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RSoami
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 25 Apr 2014 12:37

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-0 ... by-s-and-p

Russi`s credit rating has been downgraded. What about the European countries who will have to pay all the money to Russia ?! :lol:

If at all anyone needed to know more about these rating fellas.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 12:41

RSoami wrote:Unkil is smart. He wont pay up no more than lip service like the peanuts of $50 million that he has just so liberally donated. So the Germans it has to be.


No no, not just $50 mn. He has generously offered cinnamon sticks, frozen peas and so on. A large number of pretty handy lunch boxes for soldiers who dont have the stomach to fight. Lets not forget that. :D [Do the lunch boxes have "peanuts" too? They prob have 50 mn peanuts for added sarcasm and irony!]

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 25 Apr 2014 12:52

The Independent ‏@Independent 51m

Putin warns of ‘consequences’ for Ukraine as armed forces head to border http://ind.pn/1gWjaNe pic.twitter.com/zojpGu5Zsb

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 14:41

though it isn't exactly Ukraine related, its a relevant and interesting step. I saw it earlier but didn't post it. Not sure if someone has posted it earlier either. As always, look at the sides and on relevant and supporting documentation to see what the next moves are.
As early as May? Boy, that will be a massive development!

Russian China gas deal

(Reuters) - When President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty this week annexing Crimea to great fanfare in the Kremlin and anger in the West, a trusted lieutenant was making his way to Asia to shore up ties with Russia's eastern allies.

Forcing home the symbolism of his trip, Igor Sechin gathered media in Tokyo the next day to warn Western governments that more sanctions over Moscow's seizure of the Black Sea peninsula from Ukraine would be counter-productive.

The underlying message from the head of Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, was clear: If Europe and the United States isolate Russia, Moscow will look East for new business, energy deals, military contracts and political alliances.

The Holy Grail for Moscow is a natural gas supply deal with China that is apparently now close after years of negotiations. If it can be signed when Putin visits China in May, he will be able to hold it up to show that global power has shifted eastwards and he does not need the West.

"The worse Russia's relations are with the West, the closer Russia will want to be to China. If China supports you, no one can say you're isolated," said Vasily Kashin, a China expert at the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) think thank.

Some of the signs are encouraging for Putin. Last Saturday China abstained in a U.N. Security Council vote on a draft resolution declaring invalid the referendum in which Crimea went on to back union with Russia.

Although China is nervous about referendums in restive regions of other countries which might serve as a precedent for Tibet and Taiwan, it has refused to criticize Moscow.

The support of Beijing is vital for Putin. Not only is China a fellow permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with whom Russia thinks alike, it is also the world's second biggest economy and it opposes the spread of Western-style democracy.

Little wonder, then, that Putin thanked China for its understanding over Ukraine in a Kremlin speech on Tuesday before signing the treaty claiming back Crimea, 60 years after it was handed to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

Chinese President Xi Jinping showed how much he values ties with Moscow, and Putin in particular, by making Russia his first foreign visit as China's leader last year and attending the opening of the Winter Olympics in Sochi last month.

Many Western leaders did not go to the Games after criticism of Russia's record on human rights. By contrast, when Putin and Xi discussed Ukraine by telephone on March 4, the Kremlin said their positions were "close".

A strong alliance would suit both countries as a counterbalance to the United States.

WARM EMBRACE, BUT NO BEAR HUG

But despite the positive signs from Beijing, Putin may find China's embrace is not quite the bear hug he would like.

There is still some wariness between Beijing and Moscow, who almost went to war over a border dispute in the 1960s, when Russia was part of the Communist Soviet Union.

State-owned Russian gas firm Gazprom hopes to pump 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year to China from 2018 via the first pipeline between the world's largest producer of conventional gas to the largest consumer.

"May is in our plans," a Gazprom spokesman said, when asked about the timing of an agreement.

A company source said: "It would be logical to expect the deal during Putin's visit to China."

But the two sides are still wrangling over pricing and Russia's cooling relations with the West could make China toughen its stance. Russian industry sources say Beijing targets a lower price than Europe, where Gazprom generates around half of its revenues, pays.

Upheaval at China National Petroleum Corp, at the centre of a corruption investigation, could cause also delays, and Valery Nesterov, an analyst with Sberbank CIB in Moscow, said China also needs time to review its energy strategy and take into account shale gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"The bottom line is that the threat of sanctions on energy supplies from Russia has indirectly strengthened China's position in the negotiations," Nesterov said.

BOOSTING BUSINESS

Russia meets almost a third of Europe's gas needs and supplies to the European Union and Turkey last year exceeded 162 bcm, a record high.

However, China overtook Germany as Russia's biggest buyer of crude oil this year thanks to Rosneft securing deals to boost eastward oil supplies via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and another crossing Kazakhstan.

If Russia is isolated by a new round of Western sanctions - those so far affect only a few officials' assets abroad and have not been aimed at companies - Russia and China could also step up cooperation in areas apart from energy.

CAST's Kashin said the prospects of Russia delivering Sukhoi SU-35 fighter jets to China, which has been under discussion since 2010, would grow.

China is very interested in investing in infrastructure, energy and commodities in Russia, and a decline in business with the West could force Moscow to drop some of its reservations about Chinese investment in strategic industries.

"With Western sanctions, the atmosphere could change quickly in favor of China," said Brian Zimbler Managing Partner of Morgan Lewis international law firm's Moscow office.

Russia-China trade turnover grew by 8.2 percent in 2013 to $8.1 billion but Russia was still only China's seventh largest export partner in 2013, and was not in the top 10 countries for imported goods. The EU is Russia's biggest trade partner, accounting for almost half of all its trade turnover.

DILEMMA FOR JAPAN, SUPPORT IN INDIA

Sechin, whose visit also included India, Vietnam and South Korea, is a close Putin ally who worked with him in the St Petersburg city authorities and then the Kremlin administration, before serving as a deputy prime minister.

In Tokyo, he offered Japanese investors more cooperation in the development of Russian oil and gas.

Rosneft already has some joint projects with companies from Japan, the world's largest consumer of LNG, and Tokyo has been working hard under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to improve ties with Moscow, despite a territorial dispute dating from World War Two.

But Japan faces a dilemma over Crimea because it is under pressure to impose sanctions on Moscow as a member of the Group of Seven advanced economies.

It does not recognize the referendum on Crimea's union with Russia and has threatened to suspend talks on an investment pact and relaxation of visa requirements as part of sanctions.

Closer ties are being driven by mutual energy interests. Russia plans to at least double oil and gas flows to Asia in the next 20 years and Japan imports huge volumes of fossil fuel to replace lost energy from its nuclear power industry, shut down after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Oil imports from Russia rose almost 45 percent in 2013 and accounted for about 7 percent of supplies.

But if the dilemma is a tough one for Japan, it is unlikely to cause Putin much lost sleep.

"I don't think Putin is worried much by about what is said in Japan or even in Europe. He worries only about China," said Alexei Vlasov, head of the Information and Analytical Center on Social and Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space.

Putin did take time, however, to thank one other country apart from China for its understanding over Ukraine and Crimea - saying India had shown "restraint and objectivity".

He also called Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to discuss the crisis on Tuesday, suggesting there is room for Russia's ties with traditionally non-aligned India to flourish.

Although India has become the largest export market for U.S. arms, Russia remains a key defense supplier and relations are friendly, even if lacking a strong business and trade dimension, due to a strategic partnership dating to the Soviet era.

Putin's moves to assert Russian control over Crimea were seen very favorably in the Indian establishment, N. Ram, publisher of The Hindu newspaper, told Reuters. "Russia has legitimate interests," he added.

For Putin, the Crimea crisis offers a test case for ideas he set out in his foreign policy strategy published two years ago as he sought a six-year third term as president.

He said at the time he wanted stronger business ties with China to "catch the Chinese wind in the sails of our economy". But he also said Russia must be "part of the greater world" and added: "We do not wish to and cannot isolate ourselves."

Two years on, he is closer to securing the first goal, but it is not yet clear how his population feels he has done on the second.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Sonugn » 25 Apr 2014 14:48

American regime threatens more sanctions on Russia

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Russia's actions in Ukraine "a full-throated effort to actively sabotage the democratic process through gross external intimidation." :rotfl:

"If Russia continues in this direction," he added, "it will not just be a grave mistake, it will be an expensive mistake.

America should take steps in stopping all Anti russian activities and think out of the box and learn to co exist peacefully rather than pander to path of escalation.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 25 Apr 2014 15:04

Lavrov has already stated that they are willing to face hardships. That `they have faced worse before this`.

The question is weather Euro Peons are ready to face as much hardship. Without Russian gas, what is gonna happen to their industries?! Greece is down. Portugal, Italy, Spain are already in trouble. Who all will the German workhorse bail out before it goes down itself. Even more than Gas, Russia is a huge market for German products. IKEA, Siemens, ThyssenKrupps have all huge stakes in better relations.

Nothing to lose for the Americans. Or the stooges in England. They have little dependence on Russia.

Lesson for Germany. When you outsource your security and foreign policy, you also mortgage your economy.
Europeans are acting dumb. They have the most to lose in this. Even if Russia allows Ukraine to join EU tomorrow, even then EU is the biggest loser in this. The only way it can come on top is if Ukraine joins the Russian camp.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 25 Apr 2014 15:11

http://www.iol.co.za/business/internati ... -1.1680009

Germany's benchmark DAX equity index turned negative on Thursday, underperforming other major European markets due to new worries about an escalation in tensions between Russia and Western powers over Ukraine.
Austria's ATX equity index also fell, down 0.2 percent. German and Austrian are companies among the most exposed in Europe to Russia and Ukraine.


There you go. Enjoy.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 25 Apr 2014 15:29

http://www.dw.de/opinion-clear-words-no ... a-17580212

In response to the question why the US hasn't been more forthcoming, congressional representatives have been equally tight-lipped. According to insiders, the US has complained that it foots 75 percent of NATO's defense budget; in recognition of that, the US expects that its European partners - in particular, Germany - help finance Ukraine as its rebuilds its economy.

For domestic reasons, too, there probably won't be much money flowing from Washington into Ukraine. Congressional elections are slated for later this year, and ongoing US military efforts have accounted for a massive amount of spending. The "nation building" that the US has ventured in Iraq and Afghanistan was incredibly expensive, and not particularly effective. :mrgreen:


Germany must foot the bill. With no gas and toeing the foolish American realpolitik.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Virupaksha » 25 Apr 2014 15:31

in the interview in previous page, the puppet "prime minister" of clique has outlined exactly what the ears of dc wants to hear. Go through it and one gets an idea of how this clique functions.

It is for the "against russia", to the "against russia", by the "against russia".

the propaganda department is ruthlessly churning out the lies.

When a "leader" equates saving half of his country with a trade deal, he has just publicly announced his loyalties - and they clearly arent to the people of ukraine.

There is no first job. You have to do everything all at once. To calm down the east, to change the constitution, to get the [International Monetary Fund] loans, to have free and fair elections, to overhaul the Ukrainian military, to sign the [free-trade agreement] with the European Union.


also note how he talks about the military. A heavy purge or lustration is going to take place, which will push russian speaking ukranians as second grade citizens.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Virupaksha » 25 Apr 2014 15:41

RSoami wrote:http://www.dw.de/opinion-clear-words-not-more-money-for-ukraine/a-17580212

Germany must foot the bill. With no gas and toeing the foolish American realpolitik.

When german people refused to bail out greece to save the EU, I dont see how they will agree to bailing out ukraine.

Ofcourse, the elite in DC and brussels might have different opinions, levers and propaganda machinery to make it happen.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 25 Apr 2014 15:52

http://www.dw.de/black-clouds-over-ukraine/a-17584383

three possible economic scenarios for Ukraine as the turmoil there continues. None of them, he says, are particularly appealing.


There does not appear to be a good outcome for Ukraine: Putin's intentions are not clear. Even if he is happy with Crimea, a Ukrainian civil war likely. And even if the IMF gets to implement its program, the government will become extremely unpopular, even in the western parts of the country.


Ukraine is a mess. Putin should try to give it to EU and get money for raised price of gas from them. Merkel should ideally work hard to ensure Ukraine goes into the Russian camp and the wealth of Germany is not drained trying to prop it up.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 16:28

RSoami wrote:Putin should wait till the winters. Its unlikely Arsenic and US will go around doing ethnic cleansing till then owing to Euro Peons sensitivity. Then he should turn off the gas tap. Pay up or no gas. $ 40 billion is a lot of money.


Are you referring to 40 bn USD as the debt for gas payment? I think its closer to 2bn USD that Ukraine owes Russia. but the point still holds.

wait till winter, make 'em wither, shut down gas and control.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 25 Apr 2014 16:41

Yes its $2 billion for Gas subsidized debt that they need to pay immediately

The other debts http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... J420140321

Russian Prime Minister Medvedev said in a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on Friday that in total Ukraine owes Russia $16 billion, local news agencies reported.

Medvedev said that Ukraine owes Russia $11 billion because the treaty under which Russia provides Ukraine with cheap gas in return for the Sevastopol naval base was "subject to denunciation".

In addition, he said that Ukraine owes Russia $3 billion for a recent loan in the form of Russian purchase of Eurobonds, and that around $2 billion is owed to Gazprom, Russia's state-controlled gas concern.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 25 Apr 2014 16:45

Its doubtful though the present regiem will pay any of those debt ....... if Russia shuts of Gas to Ukraine then Europe will be affected as the same pipe caries gas to Europe ....if they dont pay then Gazprom financial position will be weakened.

The only way they will pay is if Europe forces Ukraine to pay ...Germany is in favour of Ukraine paying of its dues.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 17:31

for a map of gas routes through Ukraine (my current favorite):

http://www.eegas.com/ukraine.htm

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 17:37

Is war inevitable?
Ukraine crisis: Is war inevitable?Latest
War fears
In pictures
Timeline
Divisions
Jonathan Marcus
By Jonathan Marcus

BBC defence correspondent
A Ukrainian soldier jumps off an armoured personnel carrier at a checkpoint in the village of Malinivka, east of Sloviansk in eastern Ukraine, 24 April 2014 Ukraine has deployed troops to try to take back control in the east
Continue reading the main story
Ukraine crisisWest's options
Soldier' photos
Putin's threats
Russian media

Tensions are rising. The rhetorical brinkmanship is escalating.

Some 40,000 Russian troops remain massed on Ukraine's border. Military drills are under way. And the Ukrainian authorities have deployed troops themselves to try to take back control over eastern towns where buildings have been seized by pro-Russian elements.

The diplomatic battle is escalating, too, with the US laying the blame squarely on Russia for the failure to implement last week's Geneva deal. More economic sanctions loom just as Moscow insists that it may have to act to defend "Russians" who are under threat from the Ukrainian security forces.

So under all these circumstances, is war inevitable?

The answer of course is no, but all the elements for a conflict are certainly there.

The troops are in place and the arguments have been marshalled.

Ukraine map
Russia has constructed a narrative that presents any potential military action as a kind of "peace-keeping" intervention. Its forces could be on the move at short notice.

So an important qualification is needed. War may not be "inevitable" - we cannot look into President Vladimir Putin's mind - but there is indeed a worrying chance that fighting, involving the overt use of Russian troops, could break out.

Nothing, though, is tidy in this affair. And the sporadic and messy skirmishes that have already taken place in eastern Ukraine between the Kiev government's forces and pro-Russian gunmen could be a prelude to what may be to come.

Let's look at the options.

A full-scale Russian assault
Russian servicemen drive armoured personnel carriers on the outskirts of the city of Belgorod near the Russian-Ukrainian border, 25 April 2014 Russian troops are massed near the Russian-Ukrainian border
Moscow certainly has enough troops, supplies and logistics assembled to launch a major offensive into eastern Ukraine.

Nato commanders have suggested that this could potentially seek to punch across the country all the way to Odessa or even the Russian-controlled enclave in Moldova, Transnistria.

A significant level of Ukrainian resistance might be expected; Russian forces might have to contend with a guerrilla war against their lines of communication; and even the large Russian force assembled could find itself stretched - Russia would have to bring significant follow-on forces (probably of lesser quality) to bear to secure such gains.

Destabilisation as the status-quo
A pro-Russian man stands on barricades outside the Mariupol town hall, East Ukraine, 24 April 2014 Pro-Russian groups have barricaded official buildings in eastern Ukraine
The other end of the spectrum of options is the continuation of pretty much what we see going on right now, ie the mobilisation of pro-Russian groups inside Ukraine; a sporadic battle of road-blocks and barricaded buildings with (and Nato certainly believes this) Russian special forces operating on the ground to help orchestrate events.

The idea here is to maintain the sense of chaos, of the Kiev government's inability to control its own territory, with the continuing threat from Russian forces poised on its borders. The danger here is that events on the ground could precipitate a local crisis that sparks a more significant Russian involvement.

A limited "peace-keeping" intervention
This might be Russia's preferred option if matters escalate. A small-scale local intervention to "protect Russian-speakers" in a given area.

Russia already insists that it has all the necessary basis in international law to do this. However it is hard to see Ukrainian forces not responding to such a move and a "limited" incursion might quickly escalate into a larger seizure of territory.

A pro-Russian armed man guards a checkpoint near Krasny Liman village outside Sloviansk, Ukraine, 24 April 2014 Russia maintains it has the right to protect Russian-speakers in Ukraine
Having said that war is not inevitable, one must acknowledge that all the pointers are not positive - the direction of events is heading towards confrontation.

However the real question is not what happens next, but how does this crisis end?

Does Russia really want to seize and possibly incorporate parts of eastern Ukraine as it did with Crimea? Does Moscow want to risk the economic damage that a military move into Ukraine might bring down on its head?

Or alternatively has the West simply misjudged how important Ukraine is to Russia? And has it also miscalculated the level of risk and potential economic damage that Mr Putin is willing to absorb to secure what he sees as his country's vital strategic interests?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 18:06

Another good link which talks about the various possible scenarios that this quagmire can take:

It needs registration and hence don't know if I can link up stuff here. so passing the URL instead: Scenarios

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 25 Apr 2014 18:53

Yanukovich has been at the helm of affairs in Ukraine for long. Yushchenko had barely managed to come to power after a disputed vote in which the west had spent a lot of energy,resources and money(the grand revolution). Yanukovich came back to power comfortably after Yushchenko`s exit in elections that everyone said was fair.
To say that there is a huge pro European sentiment in Ukraine is in itself doubtful considering the election results of the past. At best a minority favours the EU. The rhetoric long propagated by Washington is that Ukraine is torn between two equal lobbies in Ukraine. This narrative is not supported by any fact on the ground. Till date no pro European government has been able to win a fair election. Not Yushchenko and what to speak of this Arsenic fellow. And not Tymoshenko.While `pro Russian` Yanukovich has twice won the elections.
So to say that there will be resistance if the Russian forces march into Ukraine is far fetched. Perhaps only in the western corners something like that could happen. It is more likely that the people will welcome Russians who will save them from this maidaan clowns who have usurped power and are now trying to stay in power by postponing elections and other tricks.
IMHO this will also be celebrated in Berlin who wont have to pay for all of Ukraine`s gas in future. Of course Merkel will say that she is with Obama and do Rona Dhona but will celebrate nevertheless.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 25 Apr 2014 20:41

Gavin Hewitt ‏@BBCGavinHewitt 55m

Merkel says 'we have to think about and act in the option of new sanctions' against Russia. But Europe has been saying this for weeks now.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 25 Apr 2014 21:32

To add a bit of economics to the mix. Nice literature and notes on how the Russian sanctions on EU can actually hurt the EU as much as the EU/US sanctions on Russia does.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/russia-s-tit-tat

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby ramana » 25 Apr 2014 22:16

Looking at the German stock exchange dip, is the Ukraine crisis first casualty the German economy which has so far been insulated from 2008 meltdown? Is this a way to bring instability to the gates of Western Europe? IOW Eastern Europe is the new Muddle East?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 25 Apr 2014 22:35

BBC Newsnight ‏@BBCNewsnight 1h

Western powers face the nightmare scenario of elections not going ahead in Ukraine, @MarkUrban01 writes: http://bbc.in/1rrrTfd
As the days pass without an overt, large-scale, Russian military intervention in eastern Ukraine, Western leaders are focusing increasingly on another nightmare scenario - that elections planned for 25 May will not be able to take place.

The nervousness about this possibility among US and EU politicians stems from a knowledge that despite their vocal support for the interim authorities in Ukraine, they are in fact, as Russian statements never cease to point out, an unelected group who seized power.

...
Evidently though, under current security conditions, polling would be extremely difficult in much of eastern Ukraine, and attempts to regain control through Kiev's "anti-terrorism operation" seem to promise little, but run great risks if they cause sufficient casualties to prompt the Russian army to cross the border.

And while the Kremlin might calculate that such an invasion would finally stir the US and EU to implement painful economic sanctions, the possibility of using Russian paramilitary groups in Ukraine to disrupt the elections offers a less risky method of leverage.

On Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to Mr Kerry by saying "Russia will act solidly to de-escalate the Ukrainian conflict on the basis of the agreement reached last week in Geneva".

That deal, signed by the US, EU, Ukraine and Russia, interestingly did not commit the parties to supporting the 25 May elections or even, more generally, to a speedy return to democratic government.

...
Western officials argue that this is because the Kremlin prefers keeping the Kiev authorities in a limbo land, bereft of democratic legitimacy, while it negotiates, via the constitutional dialogue touted in the Geneva text, ways for Russian activists in eastern Ukraine to gain a veto over future moves closer to the EU or Nato.

For the interim government in Kiev, led by Arseny Yatsenyuk, it is vital that the planned vote takes place - not least because continued international bail-outs are contingent on a swift move back to elected rule.

...
Pressing ahead with the vote thus becomes a weapon in the hands of the Kiev government, and disrupting it on the widest possible scale the favoured tactic of its die-hard critics.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Paul » 25 Apr 2014 22:41

Germans need to break out of NATO and re establish their age old ties with Russia. If not they will pay the price for kowtowing to the Anglo Saxons across the channel and pond.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Prem » 25 Apr 2014 22:45

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... tin_russia
Digging Themselves in DeeperWhy Big Oil is doubling down on Putin's Russia.
Russia may have become an international outcast in the wake of its annexation of Crimea and continued destabilization of eastern Ukraine. But for one group of powerful multinationals, Russia these days is less pariah than promised land.Big Western oil companies from BP to Shell have not just stayed the course in Russia in recent months -- many have essentially doubled down on oil and gas investments there and built even closer ties with Russian energy firms. Taken together, the deals could send billions of dollars flowing into the Russian economy just when Barack Obama's administration is trying to hammer it hard enough to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to reverse his annexation of Crimea and stop menacing eastern Ukraine.
"We've made clear that we'd be prepared to target certain sectors of the Russian economy if we see a significant escalation, including direct Russian military intervention in eastern Ukraine," White Housespokesperson Laura Lucas Magnuson has said.It's unclear how successful the American efforts will be if giant multinational energy firms continue investing in Russia. The deals are a boon to Putin and a blow to President Obama for reasons that go beyond mere dollars and cents. The Western companies that sign the agreements also bring much-needed technical know-how, which is critical to Russian efforts to tap oil and gas in an array of inhospitable sites."Basically, they are torpedoing whatever the United States and the EU are trying to do, which is rattle Putin's cage," said Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. in New York. "I'm very surprised the oil companies are going out of their way to assure Russia and Putin that they are going to do business as usual."Indeed, international oil firms are flocking to do more business in Moscow despite international outrage at the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, fears about Russia's use of natural gas exports to blackmail Europe, and growing signs that Russia is trying to stir up tensions in eastern Ukraine as a prelude to a potential military incursion there.
The continued Western investment in Russia reflects the simple fact that the country's energy potential is simply massive, with still-untapped deposits of oil and gas in Siberia and the Arctic and a huge Asian market for energy exports just next door. The prospect of getting in on the ground floor of the opening of Russia's liquefied natural gas export market is especially attractive to many firms, which see demand for gas in China, Japan, South Korea, and India as a guaranteed market for years to come.As a result, a parade of Western CEOs have made clear that they have no plans to end, or even delay, their joint projects with Russia. Shell Chief Executive Ben van Beurden, for instance, met with Putin at the latter's residence outside Moscow on April 18. According to Bloomberg, van Beurden told Putin that his company is "very keen to grow our position in the Russian Federation," including through fresh investments to increase the capacity of the Sakhalin offshore gas field and export terminal in Russia's Far East. Kelly op de Weegh, a spokesperson for Shell, told Foreign Policy that the company's commitment to Russia hasn't been diminished by recent events."Our strategy for working in Russia, in partnership with Russian companies, has not changed," op de Weegh said. "Russia is a country of great importance for Shell; it is a major hydrocarbons resource holder and a growing consumer market."She added that the expansion of the Sakhalin liquefied natural gas terminal, which liquefies natural gas taken from offshore fields in sub-Arctic conditions, has been in discussions for years due to its importance as a supply point for the big and growing Asia-Pacific market.BP head Bob Dudley, meanwhile, said on April 15 that "it's business as usual" in Russia, despite some angst among shareholders, and suggested that BP could serve as a bridge between Russia and the West. ."
Many Western oil firms note that, in the absence of tougher economic sanctions on Russia's energy sector, the Ukraine crisis by itself provides little disincentive to doing business with Moscow.
. Several European countries are looking to seal multibillion-dollar deals with Russia to build nuclear power plants, and so far the politics of the Ukraine crisis have not affected Russia's nuclear business.Oil and gas exploration and production, like nuclear power, is a very long-term game: Most companies sign production agreements lasting 25 years or more. That helps insulate, to a certain extent, oil and gas production deals from short-term ups and downs in the geopolitical situation."It would be very hard for me to see major foreign oil players, who have probably the best understanding of these geopolitical risks, backing away from any of those investments. If anything it would just open the door for someone else to come in," said Robert Abad, an emerging-markets portfolio manager at Western Asset Management.Indeed, stock markets have not yet punished big oil companies for their Russian exposure. On the contrary, after a small dip in early February due to fears that the West would sanction Russia's energy sector, the energy giants' share prices have kept rising. Stock prices in Shell, Exxon, Statoil, BP, and Total are all flirting with 52-week highs, a reflection that most investors aren't pressing those firms to retreat from Moscow. That means big business may be shoring up Putin just as Washington is trying to knock him down a peg."The international oil companies are sending very, very bad signals to Putin and their own governments," said Oppenheimer's Gheit. "Basically they are taking Putin's side." ( Yea, Take Saudi side , they r best )

TSJones
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby TSJones » 25 Apr 2014 23:44

Heart warming family scenes from pro-Russian forces.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukrain ... ers-n89671

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Virupaksha » 26 Apr 2014 03:03

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27162941

Ukraine crisis: 'International monitors seized' in Sloviansk
Ukraine crisis: 'International monitors seized' in Sloviansk


...
The self-proclaimed mayor of Sloviansk, Vyacheslav Ponomaryov, said that at least one passenger had been carrying maps showing separatist checkpoints in the area, which suggested "their involvement in espionage".

.......

The seized observers are not part of the main OSCE monitoring mission, which was agreed after long negotiations by Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

Instead, they appear to be unarmed military observers from individual OSCE states. The German defence ministry, which is in charge of that mission, earlier confirmed that it had lost contact with the group.


1) I wouldnt rule out having a spy in the midst of these "observers", its a standard technique. My bet would be on the polish guy or one of the five army men. Their role in the coup is well known.
2) They are NOT normal observers. The OSCE charter makes that clear.

OSCE ✔ @OSCE
Follow
1/4 Comms with military observers in Donetsk region lost.Team not OSCE monitors but sent by States under Vienna Doc on military transparency


They are military observers on invitation from the clique under vienna convention to show that they dont have intention to invade other countries. How many of us believe that there are ukranian armies in east ukraine ready to invade other countries. :rotfl:

So under that garb, the clique sends spies to the clique free eastern ukranian regions and are caught redhanded.

Oh wait for the chest beating to start, already the reason of invite is being suppressed by the cabal. Second phase they will drop military in military observers and become unarmed observers.

Already the cabal is throwing around the spectre of third world war like it is some popcorn and goading russia with its sabre rattling.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk accused Russia of wanting to "start World War Three" by occupying Ukraine "militarily and politically" and by creating a conflict that would spread to the rest of Europe.


Ofcourse with reputable as a prostitute propaganda machinery at their fingertips, murders by the clique will be sold to the gullible sheep as par the course. Ofcourse the first thing these presstitutes do is to reduce the killings by the clique.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/world ... .html?_r=0

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby chanakyaa » 26 Apr 2014 04:09

When german people refused to bail out greece to save the EU, I dont see how they will agree to bailing out ukraine.....

Why would Germans rescue them all by themselves when the rest of the world decided to fund the project? It is called IMF. It was created for one of such reasons. Wonder who gave them authority to do it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-23/imf-staff-said-to-back-17-billion-ukraine-loan-amid-contraction.html

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspx

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Apr 2014 06:12

Heartwarming scenes

"I asked one of the men who had a baseball bat, 'Do you play baseball?' Balkiz said. "The man replied, 'Yes, at night.' But when I asked where his ball was he just pointed to the bat, swung it, and then pointed to someone's head. He smiled as if to say he used it to crush skulls."


Oh, that's nothing. From UBCNews:

I saw these people standing outside the State Department in Washington DC. I asked one of the men who was holding his butt: 'Are you tired because you have been using your brain too much'?
The man replied: "Yes, at night". But when I asked him where his brain was, he just turned around and showed me his butt. He smiled as if to say his brain was up his ....

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby TSJones » 26 Apr 2014 06:38

UlanBatori wrote:
Heartwarming scenes

"I asked one of the men who had a baseball bat, 'Do you play baseball?' Balkiz said. "The man replied, 'Yes, at night.' But when I asked where his ball was he just pointed to the bat, swung it, and then pointed to someone's head. He smiled as if to say he used it to crush skulls."


Oh, that's nothing. From UBCNews:

I saw these people standing outside the State Department in Washington DC. I asked one of the men who was holding his butt: 'Are you tired because you have been using your brain too much'?
The man replied: "Yes, at night". But when I asked him where his brain was, he just turned around and showed me his butt. He smiled as if to say his brain was up his ....


Could you see some dude wearing a balaclava showing up outside the Whitehouse fence? I tremble at the thought. You can get killed wearing a hoodie sweatshirt walking home on the sidewalk while drinking a slurpee and eating some candy by the Home Owners Associaton Live Free or Die Militia.

Virupaksha
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Virupaksha » 26 Apr 2014 13:33

TSJones wrote:
Could you see some dude wearing a balaclava showing up outside the Whitehouse fence? I tremble at the thought. You can get killed wearing a hoodie sweatshirt walking home on the sidewalk while drinking a slurpee and eating some candy by the Home Owners Associaton Live Free or Die Militia.

as it happens, it already happens like that in the land of the sheep
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_Trayvon_Martin

Virupaksha
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Virupaksha » 26 Apr 2014 13:35

btw, any updates on the spy mission caught red handed?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 26 Apr 2014 17:26


RSoami
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 26 Apr 2014 18:23

Why would Germans rescue them all by themselves when the rest of the world decided to fund the project? It is called IMF


Here is some info about how IMF actually works.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1 ... 1086866944

In case of Greece
For Greece, the IMF plans to tap bilateral loans made to it by Japan and European countries, but not by the U.S., and which will be rolled into these emergency facilities.

Counting all IMF funding sources, the 15 euro-zone nations would be responsible for a substantially larger stake in the institution's Greek bailout than the U.S. European contributions to the IMF loan.


The US IMF impasse
http://www.ipsnews.net/2014/04/u-s-blas ... f-reforms/
US blasted for failure to ratify IMF reforms.

And here is indication of what US wants.
According to insiders, the US has complained that it foots 75 percent of NATO's defense budget; in recognition of that, the US expects that its European partners - in particular, Germany - help finance Ukraine as its rebuilds its economy.

from here
http://www.dw.de/opinion-clear-words-no ... a-17580212

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 26 Apr 2014 18:34

NDTV ‏@ndtv 1h

Ukraine PM says Russia airspace violation 'provocation to war': AFP

Just like Georgia before politicos in Ukraine want to drag NATO into a direct conflict with Russia. Earlier there was a statement saying 3rd world war starting, etc. They haven't learnt anything from the Gerorgian experience.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 26 Apr 2014 18:59

Ukraine Defence Minister now Denies Intrusion Claim

Neither Russian troops, nor planes crossed into Ukraine – acting DM Koval

Ukraine's acting Defence Minister Mikhail Koval has said that neither Russian troops, nor aircraft crossed into Ukraine during a military exercise. He was speaking to reporters in Kiev on Saturday. He added that Russian troops came within 2 or 3 kilometres of the Ukrainian border. According to his assessments, the peak of the Russian troops' activity off the Ukrainian border was on April 24th and 25th.


The most interesting part was Pentagon took Ukraine initial claim at face value and started blaming the Russian without independently verifying the facts ......shows how objective US are in Ukraine crisis :lol:

http://rt.com/news/155084-russia-planes ... -airspace/

Pentagon officials quoted by US media Friday claimed that “Russian fighter jets flew into Ukrainian airspace a handful of times over the last 24 hours,” calling it “a continued provocation.” The officials were not named.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 26 Apr 2014 19:22

The Guardian ‏@guardian 54m

US sends paratroopers to Nato ally Lithuania amid jitters over Russia http://gu.com/p/3zyp6/tw

The United States deployed 150 paratroopers to Lithuania on Saturday, part of efforts by Washington to reassure its eastern European allies, worried by events in Ukraine, that Nato would offer protection if they face Russian aggression.

A total of 600 US troops are to be deployed to Poland and the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for infantry exercises. They are expected to remain in the region on rotation until the end of the year.

"As threats emerged, we see who our real friends are," Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite said as she greeted the troops at the Siauliai air base.

"The Baltic states and Poland are on the border of Nato, so more security measures are urgently needed. This US troop addition is very timely and very necessary," she said.

Without mentioning Russia, she said the presence of US troops would "repel those who encroach on stability in Europe and peace in the region", as an invasion of Lithuania would now entangle the Americans.

"The numbers are not important. If just one of our guests is harmed, this would mean an open confrontation, not with Lithuania but with the United States of America," Grybauskaite told reporters.

How the un-elected Kiev clique wishes for just one American soldier to walk the streets of Kiev!

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 27 Apr 2014 02:22

Brahma Chellaney ‏@Chellaney 3h

Wielding water as a weapon, Ukraine cuts supply to Crimea, threatening to turn it into an arid land. Next, Russia to use energy as a weapon.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Raj » 27 Apr 2014 02:45

Last edited by Raj on 27 Apr 2014 03:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Prem » 27 Apr 2014 02:51

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/world ... asion.html
MOSCOW — No less an authority than Gen. Philip M. Breedlove of the United States Air Force, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, has said Russia could overrun eastern Ukraine in three to five days. In other words, Russia could basically achieve its goal of creating a neutral, weak Ukraine almost instantly.
But will it? Putin, seems to have strong reasons to dispatch his tanks: shaping the Ukraine he wants well before elections scheduled for May 25 put a new, legitimate government in place; reclaiming an area that was historically part of Russia; gaining direct access to natural resources and factories that have been crucial to Moscow’s military-industrial complex since Soviet times. And his land grab of Crimea in March made him wildly popular at home.Yet the reasons for Mr. Putin to refrain from further military adventurism make a longer, more tangled list: the cost of a huge occupation force and the responsibility for the welfare of millions more people; the effect of new, more severe Western sanctions on an already weak economy; the possibility of significant Russian casualties caused by an insurgency in eastern Ukraine; a new, implacably anti-Russian western section of Ukraine; and likely pariah status internationally.On balance, the negatives would seem to outweigh the positives, analysts said.
“Military intervention from Putin’s point of view is Plan B,” Mark Galeotti, a New York University professor and expert on Russia’s security forces currently doing research here, said recently. “It is not off the table, but it is not the ideal outcome.”However, any conversation or briefing paper about Russia’s next moves begins with a broad caveat. Few expected that Mr. Putin would seize Crimea in a matter of weeks.There are signs that Russia seems poised to invade.On Thursday, Ukraine started tentative armed operations to dislodge pro-Russian militants from government buildings in 10 eastern towns. Russia countered with extensive military maneuvers along the frontier, including what the Pentagon said were half a dozen violations of Ukrainian airspace in 24 hours. Russia denied that.Mr. Putin used historical arguments to claim Crimea. He recently inaugurated a similar discourse on southeastern Ukraine, noting that huge parts of it were called Novorossiya, or New Russia, when first captured in czarist times. The rights of ethnic Russians still living there need to be protected, he said.Significant Russian military assets, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, Navy ship gears, and jet and helicopter engines, are produced in eastern Ukraine. Vladislav Zuboka Russian Cold War expert teaching at the London School of Economics who has been researching the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, said senior Soviet officials were panicked at the prospect of losing both Crimea and Ukraine’s industrial heartland. So the current crisis has deep roots.
Mr. Putin and his closest advisers and allies have brushed off the Western travel and banking sanctions imposed on them after the seizing of Crimea. But the threat of a major economic blockade, sanctions against entire sectors of the economy that would probably be set off by a Ukraine invasion, are another matter.
Beyond economics, the specter of Slavs killing Slavs would soon sour the Russian public on any invasion. Although the Ukrainian Army is weak, it numbers 70,000, and the country has a history of partisans’ attacking invaders. Mr. Korotchenko said Russians would probably embrace military intervention only if the army was dispatched as a peacekeeping force should the Ukrainian military cause mass casualties.“Ultimately, analysts said, it is much more advantageous — and far cheaper — for Russia to manipulate a low-grade mutiny with occasional flare-ups.That will achieve the goal Mr. Putin wants: keeping Ukraine just destabilized enough that it remains an unattractive partner to the European Union or NATO. Russia played out the same script before in Georgia and Moldova.
“It would be a tank-free invasion,” said Cliff Kupchan, an analyst at the Eurasia Group in Washington. “That is his long game. I think he will try that before he invades.”

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby pankajs » 27 Apr 2014 09:48

CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk 4h

Russia: Ukraine has mobilized 15,000 troops "to wipe out” Slavyansk “and its residents." http://cnn.it/1kguqYB


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