Eastern Europe/Ukraine

[Philip]

Chocolate soldier meets his nemesis,the real (KGB) soldier!

Vladimir Putin in D-day peace talks with Ukraine president
Russian president welcomes call from Petro Poroshenko to end bloodshed in east after 15-minute face-to-face meeting
Associated Press in Ouisteham
theguardian.com, Friday 6 June 2014 22.16 BST

German chancellor Angela Merkel with Petro Poreshenko (centre) and Vladimir Putin at the D-day events in France. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Vladimir Putin spoke face-to-face with Ukraine's incoming president about ending the violence in the former Soviet state, and Kiev's new leader said talks could begin in earnest as soon as Sunday in a diplomatic breakthrough played out along the battlefield beaches of Normandy.

Friday's 15-minute meeting was followed by a brief exchange between Putin and Barack Obama, who had been keeping the Russian at arm's length over the Ukrainian crisis. Tensions between the two were played out on giant televisions on Ouistreham's Sword beach, with Putin and Obama shown divided by a split screens as they commemorated the 70th anniversary of D-day.

Speaking after his meeting with Petro Poroshenko, who is to be sworn in Saturday as Ukraine's president, Putin called for an immediate cease-fire in eastern Ukraine before any further talks, and said he expected Poroshenko to show "state wisdom" and "good will." Poroshenko later said talks could begin in earnest on his first full day in office.

"All the questions were difficult," Poroshenko said in a statement before returning to Ukraine, "but we will make every effort to achieve the goals we have set ourselves and begin negotiations on Sunday."

Putin said he welcomed Poroshenko's call for an end to the bloodshed and liked his approach to settling the crisis but wanted to wait until the Ukrainian leader could deliver it in detail to the nation.

"If it continues like that, then conditions will be created for developing our relations in other areas, including the economy," Putin said. He specified that Moscow is ready to lower gas price for Ukraine if it pays off its debt for previous supplies, easing fears of a gas shutdown to Europe dependent upon gas pipelines that cross Ukraine.

French President Francois Hollande, who orchestrated the meeting along with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said Putin and Poroshenko also discussed how Russia could recognise the Ukrainian elections as well as measures to de-escalate the fighting.

"It didn't last a long time but long enough for the message to be passed on," Hollande told the French network TF1.

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin and Poroshenko also "confirmed that there is no alternative to settling the situation by peaceful political means."

Frozen out of G7 talks on Thursday in Brussels, Putin appeared to be moving incrementally back into the fold of the west following his first direct talks with Poroshenko since the billionaire was elected to lead Ukraine. The previous pro-Kremlin president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in what Putin said was a coup.

Russia, which had recalled its ambassador from Ukraine, said he will return to Kiev to attend Poroshenko's inauguration. That appeared to be a recognition of Ukraine's election, Hollande said.

Outside the building where world leaders met for lunch, reporters saw another animated conversation between Putin and Poroshenko lasting about a minute. That conversation also included Merkel, who at a much more public commemoration at Sword beach appeared to shuttle between the men.

A senior US administration official, who was not authorised to discuss the meeting on the record, said the possibility of arranging a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders gained traction at the G7 meeting with the objective for Russia to hear the same message from "all of the allies."

The official said Russia also bore responsibilities in any cease-fire.

"It would have to be mutual. It's not on one party to have a ceasefire. It takes not just Ukraine, but also Russia," the official said.

[Y. Kanan]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/ ... 01300.html

Russia Lifts Embargo on Weapons Sales to Pakistan

If true, this is a HUGE development and cannot be simply shrugged off by India as some sort of realpolitik by Russia. Russia selling Mi-35's helicopter gunships and other advanced weaponry to Pakistan? That's insane and signals a major policy shift.

It would mark a fundamental betrayal of India by the Russians, who would no doubt understand this means the beginning of the end for Indo-Russian friendship. The Russians wouldn't take such a step unless it was part of a bigger realignment, that is, Russia getting in bed with bed with China with both feet and no reservations.

Here's how this devil's bargain would have been layed out:

-China agrees to buy $500 billion in Russian oil\gas.
-China offers to use its influence to curb Islamic aggression against Russia and central Asia.
-China agrees not to colonize Siberia.
-China pledges to stand firm with Russia at the UN

-Russia agrees to lift most of its restrictions on sensitive arms sales to China
-Russia agrees to dump India and embrace China as its new #1 ally
-Russia agrees to cement this new policy shift by selling advanced weaponry to Pakistan
-Russia agrees not to back India in any future China-vs-India conflict

The grand result of all these policy changes would be the biggest shift in international relations since the end of the Cold War. And for India it means we truly have no friends left. We'd have no choice but to try and negotiate arms deals and defense cooperation with the Americans, who would treat us with contempt in accordance with our weak negotiating position.

[Philip]

If you've read some earlier posts,there is a possibility that India has been informed about the sale of MI-35s. The Afghan situation appears to be the reason why Russia has made an exception.With the retreat of the US from the country and the uncertainty about events afterwards. Better to have Pak under some control than a loose cannon. Secondly,we have been offered a range of weaponry by Russia and rejected many offers and instead have bought from the US in clear political purchases made by the MMS regime.There is nothing that we can do to stop Russia selling China weaponry that we've rejected. We were given first peck at the cherry on many items.Even here,China has never been sold nuke subs,BMos missiles,FGFA stealth tech tech,etc. The US has just given Pak a huge multi-billion $ F-16 deal,organising ex-Jordanian aircraft,plus a load of missiles and other key components and allied eqpt. Why should we reward it by any attempt to switch over to US eqpt. lock ,stock and barrel just because Pak gets a few MI-35s?

Anyway,this td. is about the UKR crisis.the chocolate soldier has now become UKR's latest president,after the illegal ousting of Yanukovych.Despite Putin's offer to cooperate with the new Kiev chicken,he still rants on about retrieving the Crimea,long gone to Mother Russia,never to return.If the chocolate soldier persists with his mil. campaign to recover the east,a point may be reached where Russia intervenes,or even sends in full suport to the Ukranian rebels.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... imea-putin
Ukraine president vows not to give up Crimea
Petro Poroshenko uses inaugural address for pledge on Crimea and offer amnesty to separatists and nationalists

Staff and agencies
theguardian.com, Saturday 7 June 2014

Petro Poroshenko was sworn in as Ukraine's president. Photograph: Sergey Dolzhenko/EPA

The Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, has used his inaugural address to stress that the country would not give up Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from it in March.

In a combative speech on Saturday following his swearing-in, Poroshenko said: "Crimea was, is, and will be Ukrainian." He was greeted with a standing ovation.

He stressed the unity of Ukraine, which is fighting a pro-Russian separatist uprising in the east, and said it would not become a federalised state as advocated by Moscow.

Poroshenko also said he intended to sign the economic part of an association agreement with the European Union, as a first step towards full membership.

And the 48-year-old promised an amnesty "for those who do not have blood on their hands" in an apparent appeal to both separatist, pro-Russia insurgents and to the nationalist groups that oppose them. He said that he wanted neither war, nor revenge.

However, he sought to exclude the insurgents from a promise to open a dialogue with Ukraine's eastern citizens. "Talking to gangsters and killers is not our avenue," he said, according to a translator. He also called for early regional elections in the east.

His rise to office came a day after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at D-day commemoration ceremonies in France. But, despite the outreach to Putin, Poroshenko said he would not accept Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Speaking after his meeting with the Ukrainian president, Putin called for an immediate ceasefire in eastern Ukraine before any further talks, and said that he expected Poroshenko to show "state wisdom" and "goodwill".

The Russian president, who has denied allegations by Kiev and the west that Russia has fomented the rebellion in the east, said he welcomed Poroshenko's call for an end to the bloodshed and liked his approach to settling the crisis but wanted to wait until the Ukrainian leader could deliver it in detail to the nation.

Russia annexed Crimea in March after its troops took control of the Black Sea peninsula, which then held a secession referendum that Kiev and western states regard as illegitimate.

Poroshenko, a billionaire chocolate company owner, was elected on 25 May, three months after the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych fled the country following months of street protests.

[Austin]

Ukraine An-30B Reco Plane Shot over the village Mykolaivka the Slavic (Donetsk region).

Check the pic and video

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/879941.html

[habal]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/ ... 01300.html

Russia Lifts Embargo on Weapons Sales to Pakistan

If true, this is a HUGE development and cannot be simply shrugged off by India as some sort of realpolitik by Russia.

It is a HUGE development, but considering how SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has only reserves worth $500 million and revolves around that figure most of the time. It is also SMALL.

because Russians only deal in cash.

All free gifts to TSPA are given only by the Americans.

[Philip]

Ms.Le Pen who scored a sensational victory of local polls in France,getting more than 25% of the vote,is spot on.The EU and US have a vested agenda in the UKR/Russia,which is actually endangering their long term interests.Some EU politicos have accused the US of using the UKR crisis for its own interests,caring nothing about the EU's.

Marine Le Pen: EU political world indifferent to people dying in eastern Ukraine
June 09, 2014
http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/164660-eur ... s-ukraine/

Elections to the European Parliament have brought groundbreaking changes in the structure of EU’s most powerful body: right wing parties along with Eurosceptics, an outsiders just a few years ago, have now taken the political scene. Front Nacional party in France gets the majority - signifying that people want change; the same with other nations. But what now? Is the European change of course inevitable? What will happen to the Union itself? Today, we meet again with our special guest, the leader of the Front Nacional party. Marine Le Pen is on Sophie&Co today.

Follow @SophieCo_RT

Sophie Shevardnadze: Last time we talked you predicted in the EU elections you’d become the number one party in France - and here we are. What’s the very first thing you want to do?

Marine Le Pen: The first thing that I will do is constitute a group in the European parliament to be able to prevent any new advances towards European federalism, which I consider to be profoundly anti-democratic. I believe that it goes against the sovereignty of the people and the economic, social, and international interests of France. So, along with our allies, we will now be able to provide a new voice, different from the one which dominates in the European union.

SS: When you look at the bigger picture, the eurosceptics are in the minority in the chamber and they aren’t even forming a bloc yet, there was no “global victory”. So why all this talk of a political earthquake?

MP: Believe me, we saw the faces of the people here in Brussels who saw us come pouring in, I think they believe that our presence will decidedly change the appearance of the European parliament and, evidently, of the debates that will take place in the parliament.

SS: How big is the problem of these “eurocommissioners” you want to get rid of? Has the sovereignty issue gotten so serious?

MP: Sovereignty is the foundation of democracy. Without sovereignty, there is no democracy, because having the freedom to cast a ballot in a ballot box is one thing, but if the people you elected with your ballot have no power because the actual power was transferred to a supranational body, then we are no longer in a democratic process. And this is exactly what we are currently going through. I think it was in 1957, in the National Assembly, Mendès France said that there are two ways to establish totalitarianism – either all of the powers are united together, or we transfer all the power to a supranational body. Well, that's exactly what they did by building the European Union – they transferred the sovereignty of the people to a supranational body that is not elected, that has no legitimacy and that imposes its will on the people. This is true for our territorial sovereignty – we are no longer in control of our immigration policy, since with Schengen all of our borders are open; this is true for our monetary sovereignty, since we are no longer in control of our currency; our budgetary sovereignty – it has just been transferred to the European Union, but also our legislative sovereignty, since currently 80% of the laws which are voted in the French National Assembly are actually a transcription of European directives. Well, I consider that France is a free country and that it should stay that way. And since we were robbed of all of our liberties, we should fight to get them back from the hands of those that stole them without our knowledge and against our will.

SS: A little while back there was talk about the new rising superpower - the European Union. These elections showed that the bloc is far from being a universally approved, superstate. Will Europe never unite now?

MP: Europe is not at stake; it is the European Union that is at stake. Europe exists, and it consists of nations whose wealth lies in their uniqueness, their sovereignty, their freedom, their democracy. So, I am for a Europe of nations – I wish that tomorrow we can constitute a Europe that could expand, but to countries that have preserved their sovereignty and that would work together on cooperative projects. This is what works, and this is what I want to implement, but in order to do this, we have to deconstruct this European Union.

SS: I had a member of An Alternative for Germany group here the other day - he wants to divide the Eurozone into North and South. Do you think this is a solution?

MP: No, I think that this is utopian. I think that we are trying to stick plasters on a structure that was faulty from the beginning. As far as the Euro, since it is really about the Euro, they want to make a Northern Euro-zone and a Southern Euro-zone. But, in this case, what is the advantage for Southern countries to continue to have the euro imposed on them? It would be better if they re-establish their national currency, and adapt the level of their national currency to their economy to boost growth, employment, and exports. Now, if Germany wants to keep a Euro-mark zone around their territory- that is their responsibility. If they see their interests there, they are free to do it. But we have no interest in integrating a 'sub-Euro' structure.

SS: You’ve said you want to defend French interests in the EU against Germany - what are those French interests that German policy is infringing upon?

MP: Let things be clear- I am not a Germanophobe. This wouldn't make any sense. I cannot be mad at Germany for defending its interests. I simply find that their interests are divergent from ours. It is that simple. I criticize the French leaders for not defending France's interests and for defending Germany's interests. For example, in the case of the Euro – we can see that the Euro was created for and by Germany. The Euro is custom tailored, but in a way that fits only Germany and not any other country of the European Union. I want something tailored for me, and for this I want a national currency. Especially since currency is a part of sovereignty. There: one currency, one country. This is the way that 95% of the countries in the world function, by the way. If tomorrow we go back to our national currencies, German marks would be overvalued compared with the Euro. Our new francs would be devalued compared with the Euro. We would therefore benefit, and Germany would be at a loss. Currently, Germany is profiting from the Euro, since they have a currency which is structurally devalued, which gives them a considerable competitive advantage. So, this European Union has fallen under the domination of Germany since Germany has managed to impose its views on all of the other countries, and we end up martyrs. From the point of view of the economy, of employment, of society, we have suffered a considerable loss in the last few years, and I will not continue to accept the suffering of the French people to placate Madame Merkel.

SS: Obviously you are not a big fan of the austerity policies that are in you view ruining Europe. But what else needs to be done to combat the debt crises?

MP: Surely not to do this, in any case. Because the austerity policies that have been implemented have shown not only their injustice but their futility, their inefficiency. The laboratory of these austerity policies is Greece. Just look at Greece : we sent the Greeks back to the Middle Ages, their youth unemployment rate is at 60%, 30% for the rest of the workforce, a drop in unemployment compensation, a drop in salaries, a drop in civil servant bonuses. They no longer have access to appropriate health care, suicide rates have doubled, and there's been a 50% increase in the infant mortality rate.. Is this progress? Is this what we were promised? This is a disgrace, it is scandalous! And moreover, it doesn't reduce deficit or debt. Greece's deficit and its debts are still increasing. This is why I say that the austerity policies are both inefficient in attaining their objectives, which is reducing deficit, but they are also profoundly unjust and almost inhumane when we look at the fact that in some hospitals in Greece, when women come to give birth, they given their baby only in exchange for a bill to pay for their delivery.

SS: Who would you rather see as head of the European Commission?

MP: I completely don't care, they are all interchangeable. This is a legend for yuppies and for Europhiles. We tell them: “Look, Juncker!” etc., while in reality they are all the same, completely the same! The president of the commission is the warden of the prison, that's it. But he is there to enforce the application of the rules. So whoever the warden is, he will apply the rules inside the prison. This is exactly what the head of the commission does. What counts is who will best apply the ultra-liberal policy, the transfer of sovereignty, the expansions they want to impose on various European populations, the signature of the Trans-Atlantic treaty with the United States, which we formally contest and which we will fight tooth and nail.

SS: On events in Ukraine - you’ve called the EU an “antidemocratic monster”, which has made things worse with its offers of partnership to Kiev. How exactly?

MP: Listen, obviously when the European Union made this partnership proposal to Ukraine, this basically meant a rupture of their relationship with Russia, it was a kind of blackmail that could only fuel the divisions of Ukraine, since we know that within the country, there are citizens in the East which look towards Russia and some in the West which look towards the European Union. We were well aware of this. And fuelling these divisions was obviously putting in place conditions for a danger of civil war. So the European Union started the initial fire and since then has only aggravated the situation via threats, blackmail and sanctions, which we can clearly see do not contribute to bringing everyone to the table to find a peaceful and reasonable resolution to this conflict.

SS: You’ve said the EU is responsible for the situation in Ukraine - did it ever know what it was getting into?

MP: By definition, it is not up to me to defend the competency of these bodies. To not know this would be tragic – such geopolitical ignorance seems astounding to me. Nevertheless, the result is there – the European Union did not play the role that it could have played, and it contributed to aggravating the situation. What is really a shame is that countries like France no longer have a diplomatic voice – because here is a conflict in which France, if it had kept a strong political voice, a balancing voice like the one I want it to recover, it could totally manage to overcome these difficulties. The diplomacy of the European Union is a catastrophe, and not only in Ukraine - each time the European Union participates on the global stage, it is usually either to create a problem or to aggravate it.

SS: Is imposing sanctions on Russia a sign that the EU’s foreign policy is subordinated to the U.S.? How far will the EU go with those?

MP: I don't know, maybe eventually the European Union will have to face reality and come to the conclusion that it is not to its advantage to bend to America's will. In any case, that is what I hope, because these sanctions have contributed to strengthening everyone's opposing positions, which makes no sense. We were completely aware of the fact that Russia, faced with these sanctions, wouldn't say: “Oh, well if it's going to be like that, no problem, do what you want”. That doesn't make any sense. The sanctions that were imposed, including those imposed on Russian deputies and even the president of the Duma, which are even more problematic, are a rupture in historical traditions on a diplomatic level. Generally, we do not sanction deputies because they are the expression of the people. So I am under the impression that there are no more rules, except maybe the ones imposed by the United States, which once again defend their own interests, but their interests are not ours.

SS: Can Ukraine ever become an EU member? Do you think it should?

MP: Obviously not, obviously not! Once again – here, when the European Union promised to let Ukraine become part of it, it clearly contributed to the exacerbation of tensions within Ukraine. Ukraine will not become part of the European Union. We won't tell tales – Ukraine absolutely doesn't have the economic level to become part of the EU. And, once again, it is a long way down the list. I am opposed to any new expansion, so I say this with no judgement whatsoever. I feel friendship towards the Ukrainians, so I wouldn't invite my friends to the table of nightmares. I want to leave the European Union, so I can't invite them to join.

SS: The G7 condemned Russia for the situation in Ukraine, vowed more sanctions…Why are Western leaders calling on Russia and President Putin to end the violence, and not the government in Kiev, the newly-elected president they’ve been meeting with?

MP: That's a good question. Because we are at the culmination of a Cold War that has been fought against Russia by the United States, to which the European capitals have completely submitted on an international level. It's as simple as that, and a shame as well. And I would like to seize this opportunity to express my compassion and my sadness and my disgust to see these civil victims in the East of Ukraine, who are dying surrounded by the general indifference of the European political world and media. It is a real scandal which is happening on our doorstep, and you are right to say that from the moment Ukraine has a legitimate government, it is the government which must take responsibility. But for this, we would need to demand that the Ukrainian government dismantle and disarm the reigning militia, which would most likely embarrass a number of people.

SS: The elections in Ukraine were quick to be accepted by the major powers in the West - despite the civil war that’s going on in the country and the fact that there was no vote in the country’s rebellious East. At the same time, the elections in Syria, were branded illegitimate even before they were held. Why?

MP: Yes, but this has been happening for years! I mean, such and such decides who is on the good side and who is on the bad side. And this can change at any moment. The good guys of today will be the bad guys of tomorrow, and maybe the bad guys of today will become good tomorrow, if Washington decides that it is to their advantage to make them good. It is a shame, since there is a substantial amount of mistakes that have been made at an international level under Washington's influence, especially in Syria. We were the only ones among the French political parties to oppose intervention in Syria, the first and only ones who, from the beginning, said that we were arming Islamic fundamentalists, who would, if they did win, implement a reign of terror like they did in Libya. This was, once again, because of us. We helped them come to power. This is the American method, the international American method: they defend their interests, or they think that they are defending them, since sometimes they make serious mistakes. What is terrible is that European countries no longer have a say in things. There are no more sovereign nations in Europe that can be the voice of reason for peaceful settlement of conflicts, the voice of balance between different interests of different nations.

SS: Obama said the security of America’s European allies is sacrosanct, promising to boost U.S. military deployments and exercises around Europe. Does Europe need this kind of support?

MP: To defend ourselves against whom? [...] To defend ourselves against whom? Well, you know that we are for leaving NATO, for France leaving NATO, we have a Gaullian vision of what international politics must be like, we are for developing our relations with Russia, without breaking ties with the United States. We believe that France must maintain its relations with all of the world's great nations, and we do not want to be imposed with a way of seeing things by anybody. We aspire to have the freedom to determine the quality and the level of our international relations. But... to defend ourselves against whom? When we asked this question to a French politician, his answer was “China”. It almost makes you laugh. We can clearly see that, as a matter of fact, this is an opportunity for the United States to carry out military integration, and maybe tomorrow, economic integration, to extend the scope of its influence. The free-trade agreement that the United States want to sign at any price is really just another way to tie the European Union, in a quasi-definitive way, to the United States. This is, once again, a loss of independence, not to mention the catastrophic consequences that this free-trade agreement would have for us in terms of agriculture, industry, defence, etc. So this is much more a geopolitical treaty than a purely commercial or economic treaty.

SS: After your success - what now? Running for President in 2017?

MP: Listen, if the followers of my movement put their trust in me, since we have an upcoming congress in November, where I will run to be re-elected as the head of the Front National. If I am re-elected as the head of the FN, then I will obviously be a candidate for the future presidential elections, which may take place earlier than we expected, either the presidential or the legislative elections, given the extremely low level of support for the President of the Republic, François Hollande.

SS: So you believe elections may take place earlier than scheduled?

MP: That is what François Hollande's friends say, who have raised the question to figure out how they can hold on for another three years while sustaining such heavy losses in all of the elections organised in the meantime, and having just a 16% popularity rating among the French population. I strongly believe in an early dissolution of the National Assembly. If the results of this early legislative election give the same results as the European election, where the political party of the President of the Republic, which has all the power, the State, the National Assembly, the Senate, the regions, thousands of municipalities, gathered less than 14% of voices, then I don't see how the President of the Republic can continue like this. In any case, the question arises.

[UlanBatori]

Vodka-Mobiles on the move

[Philip]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... sands-flee
Ukraine's humanitarian crisis worsens as tens of thousands flee combat in east
Appalling conditions force exodus from Slavyansk as daily shelling disrupts food supply

Alec Luhn in Slavyansk
The Guardian, Thursday 12 June 2014

A view of residential buildings damaged
Slavyansk in eastern Ukraine has suffered daily shelling. Photograph: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images

Fighting between Ukrainian government troops and pro-Russian militia is fuelling a worsening humanitarian crisis in eastern Ukraine. Tens of thousands of people are fleeing combat, most of them from the rebel capital of Slavyansk, where almost daily shelling has claimed numerous civilian casualties since late May.

Most residents in the besieged city have been without water, electricity and gas for the past week. Food supplies are limited, and grocery stores smell of rotting food from the lack of refrigeration. Dozens of people queue for drinking water.

About 270 people have died in the east of the country since Kiev launched its "anti-terrorist operation" two months ago, Ukraine's health ministry said on Wednesday. Of those killed, 225 were in Donetsk region, including Slavyansk, where fighting has been heaviest. At least two children have died of shrapnel wounds in Slavyansk this month, according to the health ministry. However, past government estimates have been low, excluding deaths in rebel-held territory.

Appalling conditions in rebel-held towns have caused thousands to flee. The exodus from Slavyansk gathered pace when Ukrainian army shelling intensified at the end of May, with most residents going to the nearby city of Svyatogorsk were they are dependent on the goodwill of locals for housing and food. About 15,000 to 20,000 refugees from Slavyansk have arrived in the city since the end of May, according to mayor Alexander Dzyuba.

Svyatogorsk monastery – one of the holiest Russian Orthodox sites in eastern Ukraine – has been housing as many as 500 Slavyansk inhabitants each day, said one monk. The displaced people receive one meal a day and live in tight quarters. Women and children live three to a room in the female section, while men live seven to a room with only a few feet between each bed. Laundry and clothing hung from lines above the cots.

Several old recreational compounds in the area have also been taking in displaced people. Volunteers hand out limited portions of donated food, much of it from residents in the eastern city of Kharkiv and from the company Bravo, at the Cafe Pyramid, said volunteer Yelena Laskova.

Sergei and Yulia Rivokovsky were staying with their three young children at a "tourism base" called Iskra. Yulia and her daughters arrived by bus two weeks ago, while Sergei rode his bicycle nearly 40 miles to join them. He said he wanted to join the rebels but had to see his family first. "My daughter was crying over the phone. If it gets worse I will go fight."

"There's no prospects for the future here," said Slava, who was staying with four relatives in a room at Iskra. "There's no work. Where can we go? But at least there's a roof and lighting here."

Another nearby recreational compound called Dubravushka was housing 170 displaced people from Slavyansk, according to manager Svetlana Sachenko. One of them, Anna Ergert, said her son and elderly parents remained in Slavyansk because they hadn't wanted to leave.

"My dad doesn't want to eat or drink, he wants to die … I tried to bring him borscht, but he said, 'You don't bring borscht to a corpse,'" she said, breaking down in tears.

According to the health ministry, 251 hotels, summer camps and other sites across the country have been converted into refugee centres housing up to 30,000 displaced people – including the servants' quarters at deposed president Viktor Yanukovych's luxury estate in Kiev. More than 7,000 people have already moved into these temporary housing facilities.

But no government assistance was visible in Slavyansk or Svyatogorsk, where local civic organisations, businesses and private citizens have helped to provide transportation, housing and food for those trying to flee the violence.

According to local volunteer Natasha Bogamaz, the Communist party has been organising buses to take women and children out of Slavyansk since 3 June. Buses were to take 20 people to the nearby city of Chuguyev and 40 to Crimea on Wednesday.

Anna Ivashenko was waiting to take the bus to Crimea with her two-year-old and four-year-old daughters. They decided to flee after a shell exploded in their apartment yard the day before, injuring her father. The family lives outside the village of Andreyevka, where there has been especially intense fighting, and her "nervous system was shot", she said.

Newly elected president Petro Poroshenko has promised a humanitarian corridor in the east, though there has been no sign of this in practice yet. On Thursday the security service ordered the commander of Kiev's "anti-terrorist operation" to establish a corridor for the evacuation of civilians.

Russian officials have also claimed that about 70,000 Ukrainian refugees have fled across the border since the fighting began, though these figures appear to have been inflated. The secretary general of the OSCE, Lamberto Zannier, visited refugees in Rostov region on Thursday, and recommended that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees get involved in helping those people who have fled.

Although thousands have fled, a majority of Slavyansk's 120,000 population has remained, unwilling or unable to leave because of a lack of funds, lack of transportation or fear of the troops.

In central Slavyansk on Wednesday, pensioner Valentina Vasiliyevna was clearing glass and shattered furniture out of her flat, which was hit by a shell earlier this week just after she and her son went to bed. "Thank God our beds are behind a wall, and we weren't killed," she said. "I lived through the great war, and now we're living through another one."

It was not clear whether the shell was fired by Ukrainian or rebel forces, although government troops have fired more ordinance. The commander of a government checkpoint just outside Slavyansk who would identify himself only as Mikhail said rebels had been firing long-range weapons from residential buildings, while Yura, a rebel, said the military was "shooting at peaceful people".

Howitzer shells, mortars and rockets have struck numerous buildings in Slavyansk and nearby towns. A block of flats on Lenin Street was rendered uninhabitable after being hit at least three times, and residents said civilians had been killed in the blasts. Anatoly Zhuly said he was going to live with his daughter inn the city's outskirts. Asked how he could stay in a city being shelled every day, he said: "If you're destined to be hanged, you won't drown."

Leonid Kozmenko, one of the few still living in the wrecked building, said he couldn't leave. "We would need money first," he said. "We have nothing."

[Philip]

Ukrainian PM orders govt: ‘Prepare to stop Russian gas imports’
Published time: June 13, 2014
http://rt.com/business/165764-ukraine-stop-russia-gas/

Russia-Ukraine gas war: Europe wonders what’s in store
Published time: June 12, 2014

Russia has again extended the deadline before Kiev starts using a prepayment system, but if Ukraine doesn’t pay its gas debt by June 16, Moscow could pinch the energy vein that provides for a third of the total gas needs in Europe.

Russia has turned off gas supplies through Ukraine twice, in the winters of 2006 and 2009, after Kiev was late paying. Halting natural gas supplies not only hurt Ukraine, but also squeezed European neighbors, as prices shot up and millions of European homes were left without heat. Both periods lasted about three weeks.

Kiev and Moscow are still negotiating on a gas price, which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday could be lowered to $385 per 1,000 cubic meters. Kiev hasn’t formally accepted this offer, insisting it was "biased" and "political".

Europe imports a third of its natural gas from Russia, and nearly half of that is delivered via Ukraine. In 2012, over 84 billion cubic meters of gas traveled from Russia to Europe through Ukraine.

Little of Ukraine or Europe will feel any immediate effects, since dependence on Russian gas in the summer months is lower. In the so-called 'low season’ Europe can get enough gas through the Nord Stream pipeline or through the pipes across Belarus. But in winter, transit through Ukraine would be vital, Aleksandr Pasechnik, head of analytical department the Fund of National Energy Security, said earlier.

Some European countries have large reserves. Latvia, for example, has a year’s worth of gas saved up. However other countries, like Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member state, have less than two months of gas at its disposal.

So if Russia's gas supplies to Ukraine are cut off for long enough, Europe may face a really cold winter.

Europe can also turn elsewhere for gas - Norway and the Netherlands are both gas producing neighbors, or Azerbaijan, the oil rich country south of Russia situated on the Caspian Sea. European LNG terminals have the ability to import nearly 200 billion cubic meters of gas per year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group. But LNG imports would be really expensive.

If tarnsit of Russian gas via Ukraine is dirupted, prices in the UK and other parts of Europe could more than double, many analysts have speculated.

The South Stream gas pipeline, another route bypassing Ukraine set to deliver about 64 billion cubic meters to Europe, could now be in peril over chilled EU-Russia relations.

The US and EU are pressuring Gazprom partner countries to block the South Stream project, and on Sunday Bulgaria announced it is suspending work. Later, the Energy Minister said the project is "irreversible" and will go on.On June 13 teh European Commossion is coming to Bulgaria to discuss the issues connected with the marine section of the South Stream.
Diary of the dispute

Ukraine currently has a 10-year contract with Gazprom, which was signed under the leadership of Yulia Tymoshenko in 2009. A provision of this is "take or pay", which requires Ukraine to purchase about 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year, whether they use it or not.

When Crimea reunited with Russia, the oil rich Black Sea, which has an estimated 2.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas valued at $1 billion, switched hands to Moscow. Gazprom took over the operations of Chronomornafrogaz (Black Sea Gas), and Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk demanded Russia return the "stolen" gas.

Up until 1991, Crimea was part of the larger Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, better known as the Soviet Union. Before that, it was part of Russia, until it was gifted to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by then-premier Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.

During the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a natural hub for transporting gas westward to European and Turkish markets. Now, it has become an unreliable transport state, so Russian state-owned Gazprom is rapidly building pipelines around it to ensure product delivery to European clients, some of which are 100 percent dependent on Russian gas. The North Stream pipeline, which crosses the Baltic Sea, delivers gas to Germany and other north western states, and the to-be-completed South Stream will service southern Europe.

[Philip]

Huge disaster.IL-76 shot down by separatists,almost 50 killed!

As the UKR regime raises the stakes,so too do the separatists.As the UKR regime raises the stakes,so too do the rebels.There are now reports of the rebels having acquired tanks,MBRLs,etc.This not the last UKR aircraft or helo that is going to bite the dust.

Pro-Russia rebels shoot down Ukrainian military plane
Transport jet brought down by heavy machine gun fire as it approached Luhansk airport, says defence ministry
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... er-ukraine

Pro-Russian separatists have shot down a large military transport plane in Ukraine's east, with 49 people on board reported to have been killed in a major blow for the Kiev government's efforts to put down the insurgency.

Ukraine's defence ministry said the plane was downed as it approached an airport at Luhansk. The Il-76 transport plane had been carrying service members as well as equipment and food. A military spokesman, Vladislav Seleznyov, told the Reuters news agency that 49 people died.

The toll would be the biggest suffered by government forces in a single incident since Kiev started a military operation to try to defeat the insurgency in east Ukraine.

A defence ministry statement said the rebels "cynically and perfidiously" shot down the plane using anti-aircraft guns and heavy calibre machine guns.

An Il-76 is a four-engined jet that can be used to transport heavy gear and people. Luhansk, in Ukraine's east near its border with Russia, is an area where separatists have seized government buildings and declared independence after holding disputed referendums.

On Friday the US state department said a convoy of military vehicles, including three tanks, had been transported from a Russian depot into Ukraine this week.

Three T-64 tanks, multiple rocket launchers and other military vehicles crossed from Russian into the Ukraine near the town of Snizhne, the state department said, describing this as "unacceptable". The vehicles – apparently out-of-use Russian tanks – appear to have been commandeered by Ukrainian separatist forces.

Ukraine first raised concerns about the tanks crossing into its eastern region on Thursday, after several reports, including video footage uploaded to Youtube, appeared to show Russian tanks passing through Snizhne.

Kiev maintains that the pro-Russian forces who facilitated the annex of Crimea and are now laying claim to parts of eastern Ukraine are being covertly supported by Moscow. Russia denies direct military involvement in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine's newly elected president, Petro Poroshenko, raised concerns about the tanks directly with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on Thursday. Russia has not officially responded to the claims.

On Friday, the US state department deputy spokesperson, Marie Harf, said it believed separatists in eastern Ukraine had "acquired heavy weapons and military equipment from Russia, including Russian tanks and multiple rocket launchers".

Harf said internet videos had shown the same type of tanks that crossed the border in the eastern cities of Snizhne, Torez and Makiyivka. The statement did not explicitly blame Russia for supplying the weaponry directly to the Ukrainian separatists.

But it stated Washington's unequivocal belief that the tanks had crossed the border and hinted at Moscow's complicity. The US secretary of state John Kerry also raised the issue with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, according to the state department.

"We have information that Russia has accumulated tanks of a type no longer used by Russian forces at a deployment site in southwest Russia, and some of these tanks recently departed," Harf said.

"Russia will claim these tanks were taken from Ukrainian forces, but no Ukrainian tank units have been operating in that area. We are confident that these tanks came from Russia."

Harf added: "We also have information that Russia has accumulated multiple rocket launchers at this same deployment site in southwest Russia, and these rocket launchers also recently departed."

Earlier on Friday, Harf told reporters: "They [the tanks] were somehow pulled out of the Russian warehouses, someone taught them how to use them, and they were sent from Russia to Ukraine."

Also on Friday, the Associated Press reported Ukrainian troops attacked pro-Russia separatists in the southern port of Mariupol, driving them out of buildings they had occupied in the city. Mariupol is the second-largest city in the eastern Donetsk region, where armed separatists have declared independence from the government in Kiev.

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report

[Philip]

As the UKR regime raises the stakes,with increased mil. attacks against the eastern "Independent" entities,so does the "equal and opposite" force respond.The shooting down of an IL-76 using Igla missiles is a new development and indicates that the freedom fighters of the east are increasing the sophistication and lethality of the firepower of their arsenals.That tanks and MBRLs have also reportedly been seen in their territory indicates that the UKR regime has its task well and truly cut out.if they welsh on payment to Russia on their pending energy bills,surely as the "sun rises in the west"...(old Yanqui joke!),Putin will snip their supplies.What he might also "snip" is open to speculation,as if anti-Russian protests like the attack against their embassy in Kiev continue,another "equal and opposite" reaction will certainly occur,as surely as the "sun rises in the east"....(old Russian joke!).

So let us watch the thrashing and panting of the Kiev chickens as they try and regain control of a lost cause. With Iraq and the MEast in turmoil,O'Bomber's interest in events in the Ukraine will wane "as surely as a waning moon"...old saying by moi! Just watch grandmaster Putin toying with the chocolate soldier,turning him over on the griddle,basting him gently,watch Poroshenko "crackle"!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... litary-jet

Bloodiest day in Ukraine conflict as rebel missiles bring down military jet
Il-76 transport plane destroyed at Luhansk airport, killing 40 paratroopers and nine crew

Alec Luhn in Donetsk
The Observer, Saturday 14 June 2014 17.52 BST
The wreckage of the Ukrainian Il-76 jet brought down at Lugansk. Photograph: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images

Pro-Russian rebels have shot down a military transport plane in Luhansk in the bloodiest single day of fighting in eastern Ukraine since the conflict began in April, setting back Kiev's efforts to end the crisis and establish control of the region.

The Ukrainian government had appeared to finally be making progress this week after new president Petro Poroshenko spoke with Russian president Vladimir Putin on Thursday and Kiev's forces retook the port city of Mariupol on Friday.

Rebels shot down an Il-76 transport plane in Luhansk, killing all 40 paratroopers and nine crew members who were aboard. Surveillance camera footage from the city showed a mid-air explosion after an object – apparently a rocket – streaked into the sky, followed by a larger explosion and fire on the ground. A Kiev military analyst later reported that the empty tubes of two Igla handheld surface-to-air missiles had been found near Luhansk airport, the only significant piece of infrastructure Ukrainian forces have been able to retain in the rebel-held city.

Vladimir Inogorodsky, spokesman of the self-declared Luhansk People's Republic, confirmed rebels had shot the plane down with Igla missiles and said they were currently blockading the airport. Rebels declared they would not allow any more flights into the airport last week.

"No more airplanes have landed at the airport since last night, and if they do we will shoot them down," he said.

In the city of Krasnodon in the Luhansk region, 20 armed rebels seized the security service building overnight, according to a regional interior ministry spokeswoman.

Fighting also picked up in the neighbouring Donetsk region. Rebels killed three border guards and wounded four when they ambushed an armoured column in Mariupol with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades on Saturday morning, the Interfax Ukraine news agency reported. On Friday, government forces had captured 30 rebels and weapons caches, and raised a Ukrainian flag over the rebel headquarters after a six-hour operation to take Mariupol back.

Rebels in the city of Gorlovka, which is held by former Russian lieutenant colonel Igor "Demon" Bezler, said they had shot down a government Su-25 fighter jet after a night air strike on the rebel headquarters that reportedly killed one civilian and wounded six rebels.

A local named Alexei told the Observer he had seen a missile fired from the ground but could not tell if it had hit the plane. The Luhansk and Donetsk region anti-terrorist operation spokesman Vladislav Seleznyov later denied that the jet had been downed.

After the heavy casualties on Saturday, the total number of servicemen killed in eastern Ukraine rose to at least 115. The health ministry said earlier this week that a total of 270 people had been killed since the start of Kiev's "anti-terrorist operation" in the east, most of them in the besieged rebel-held city of Slavyansk.

The operation began in April after pro-Russian protesters began seizing government buildings across eastern Ukraine, holding makeshift referendums to declare their independence and calling on Russia to deploy troops to the region.

In response to the downing of the transport plane in Lugansk, Poroshenko declared a day of mourning on Sunday and called a meeting of the national security and defence council. "All who took part in this large-scale, cynical terrorist attack will definitely be punished," he said in a statement. "Ukraine needs peace, but terrorists will receive an adequate response."

The latest attacks come amid still more allegations that Russia is supporting the rebels in the east with men and arms. Although Igla missiles such as those used in Lugansk could have been obtained when rebels seized government arms caches, they require special training to fire, New York University professor and Russian security services expert Mark Galeotti told the Observer.

On Thursday, three T-64 tanks reportedly entered from Russia at a rebel-controlled border crossing, and the Observer saw a convoy including three such tanks flying a Russian flag on a highway north of Donetsk late that evening. In his phone conversation with Putin on Thursday about ending the Ukraine crisis, Poroshenko reportedly told the Russian president it was unacceptable that these tanks had crossed the border, and the US state department later also condemned this development.

Nato Allied Command Operations published satellite images on Saturday that it said showed three tanks on transport trucks ready to be moved near the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on 11 June. "If these latest reports are confirmed, this would mark a grave escalation of the crisis in eastern Ukraine in violation of Russia's Geneva commitments," it said in a statement.

Foreign secretary William Hague said on Friday that the "international community stands ready to impose further sanctions if Moscow continues to provoke instability and does nothing to stop further violence."

"Meet the F*****s"! Nice video clip of the UKR's FM'srant.

Ukrainian FM chants 'Putin - f**ker' at vandalized Russian embassy in Kiev
Published time: June 15, 2014

In an incident that may be a first in diplomatic history, Kiev’s top diplomat publicly ‘effed’ the head of another state. Foreign Minister Andrey Deshchitsa chanted “Putin’s a f**ker” with a cheering crowd that earlier vandalized the Russian embassy.

Deshchitsa arrived at the scene of the heated protest - which involved overturning cars belonging to embassy staff, the desecration of a Russian flag and pelting the building with firecrackers and paint - in an apparent attempt to defuse the crowd.

He confronted some of the protesters - or rather sided with them. Footage of the encounter shows the minister saying he is all for the protest and its goals.

“I would stand up here with you can say, Russia, get out of Ukraine,” he said. “Putin’s a f**ker, right!”

This treasure of Kiev-style diplomatic language was met with a joyous cheer among the crowd, which erupted in a concerted chant. The profane phrase comes from a chant of Ukrainian radical football fans and is very popular among anti-Russian-minded Ukrainians at the moment.

The minister looks a bit astounded by the overwhelmingly welcoming response and even sings a bit along with the protesters.

Later on Sunday, the minister turned very elusive, when grilled about the scandalous episode. He justified his actions with a need to protect the Russian embassy.

“People were very angry and we had to stop those people, not to let them go further, not to allow an attack and siege of the embassy,” he told Echo of Moscow radio. “They wanted to burn the embassy down.”

Deshchitsa didn’t explain why he thought that profane chants were better at providing security than a police guard, which Kiev was obliged, but failed, to provide.

Demonstrators stand on an overturned car during a rally against the Russian president in front of the Russian embassy in Kiev on June 14, 2014. (AFP Photo / Sergei Supinsky)

The Ukrainian government did not immediately comment on the spectacular work Deshchitsa demonstrated in building diplomatic bridges between Kiev and Moscow in front of the Russian embassy.

No comments followed from the Russian Foreign Ministry, which will probably not be able to find a proper response to such language in its guidebooks.

Cursing at Russian President Vladimir Putin however is not unheard of from the Ukrainian politicians. Oleg Lyashko, a Ukrainian MP who scored the third-best result in last month’s presidential election, chanted the same profane song at a rally amid the election campaign.

Deshchitsa was not the only Ukrainian politician to make controversial moves at the Russian embassy on Saturday to appease the crowd. MP Nikolay Rudkovsky was also at the scene and was practically forced to hurl a stone at the embassy by the protesters, video footage showed.

However, this didn’t convince everybody of the parliamentarian’s patriotism and loyalty to the people of Ukraine. As he was preparing to leave, a masked protester accused him of being a moneybag driving around in a posh car and sprayed his face with green paint, the same that was used on the walls of the embassy.

[Gerard]

Ukraine crisis: Kiev faces halt to gas supply

Gazprom has reaffirmed its Monday deadline for Ukraine to pay its debts after talks between Moscow and Kiev ended without agreement.

The Russian gas giant said it will cut Ukraine's supply if Kiev fails to pay $1.95bn (£1.15bn) by 06:00 GMT.

"We reached no agreement. The chances that we meet again are slim," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kuprianov said.

Ukraine's discounted rate for gas was axed by Moscow after protests removed pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych.

[Philip]

Less than 5 hrs. to go.The stupid FM who used the "F" word to describe Putin won't be smiling when his willie gets frozen!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... tin-russia
Ukraine minister's abusive remarks about Putin spark diplomatic row
Andriy Deshchytsia caught swearing about Russian president while trying to placate protesters outside embassy in Kiev

Shaun Walker in Moscow
The Guardian, Sunday 15 June 2014

Ukraine's foreign minister has become embroiled in an unusual diplomatic row after he was caught on camera making abusive remarks about Vladimir Putin outside the Russian embassy in Kiev on Saturday evening.

As the conflict in eastern Ukraine has deepened in recent months, the chant of "Putin khuilo" has become ever more popular among Ukrainians who blame Russia for stoking discontent in the east. Khuilo is a Russian swearword that approximately translates as "******" or "dickhead".

Andriy Deshchytsia, the country's acting foreign minister, arrived at the Russian embassy to reason with crowds who had gathered outside, angered that pro-Russia rebels had brought down a Ukrainian transport plane near Luhansk early on Saturday, killing 49 people on board. The crowds threw rocks and eggs at the embassy, destroyed diplomatic vehicles, and painted swastikas on the gates, chanting "Putin is a fascist" and "Putin khuilo".

Deshchytsia tried to calm some in the crowd, telling them Russia should answer for its actions but that storming the embassy was not the correct response. When he was shouted down by the angry mob, he responded: "I am for you protesting. I am ready to be here with you and say 'Russia, get out of Ukraine'… Yes, Putin is a khuilo, yes."

Seizing on his words, a delighted group of protesters then struck up a "Putin khuilo" chant, leaving the minister looking somewhat bemused.

The incident prompted fury in Moscow, where officials are already incensed by the attack on the embassy and its property.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, "expressed outrage over the inaction of the Kiev authorities who allowed the rioting outside the Russian embassy" during a phone conversation with his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius, the ministry said.

Alexei Pushkov, a senior Russian foreign policy official, called on the Ukrainian president to fire his foreign minister after the outburst. Leonid Kalashnikov, Pushkov's deputy, told a Russian radio station: "I can't really imagine how anyone, especially a Russian representative, can sit down at the negotiating table with him after such an outburst."

However, Geoff Pyatt, the US ambassador to Ukraine, wrote on Twitter that the minister had been "seeking to defuse a dangerous situation", calling Deshchytsia "a skilled diplomat and credit to Ukraine".

In a sign of how the war of words over Ukraine has intensified online, tThe boss of Kremlin-funded television station Russia Today, Margarita Simonyan, wrote in a caustic response to Pyatt's tweet: "Woah, bad idea for them to legalise grass."

Deshchytsia did not comment on the incident but said on Twitter: "We managed to stop violence at the Russian embassy yesterday, but it will be difficult to do so in future if Russian aggression continues."

Since Petro Poroshenko was inaugurated in Ukraine a week ago after winning last month's presidential election, there has been some hope that the two sides might be able to find a common language. Poroshenko and Putin spoke on the sidelines of the D-Day anniversary commemorations in Normandy, and also on the telephone last week.

But the downing of the plane, killing 40 soldiers and nine crew, has reinvigorated tensions. Poroshenko promised to punish those responsible for bringing the Il-76 plane down. Sunday was declared a day of mourning in Ukraine.

As well as the unrest in east Ukraine, which Kiev says is indirectly backed by Moscow, the two countries are also trying to negotiate a price for gas deliveries. Pushkov claimed Moscow and the EU were looking to solve the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine but were being stymied by Washington's nefarious plans. "Kiev is blocking any solution so the US has a reason for a cold war," he wrote.

If the US calls an abusive loudmouth who uses the "F" word to describe a foreign head of state as "skillful",then one can understand the depths to which the US State Dept. has plummeted...to the level of the sewer.We in India well know the depths to which it plummeted with the DK affair,where an accredited Indian diplomat was fist-raped ,for which it has still not apologised.

[vijaykarthik]

^^ oh, US state dept was just sending *feelers* to the Indian govt by probing a few govt assets. It wasn't fist-raping at all! All this is just a pigment of your imagination onlee, surelee!

[disha]

^^ (To Phillip's post) Putin will wait till winter before freezing the b@lls of the Euro- Fokkers.

With the gas prices going up., Iraq in a meltdown and Obomber "requesting" Iraqis to get over their sectarian strife (DUH!!!!)., Obomber must be wondering when this nightmare going to end.

Guys this is the end of the US hegemony. Welcome to the Multi-polar world.

[UlanBatori]

Its a Noo Whirled Odor. US-Eyeran: Direct Talks. Kerry is being sent to Baghdad on Marine 1, and the helicopter has been asked to leave him there on the embassy rooftop and return empty.

And this about Ab-u-Bakr ul Bag-daddy

That's one rusted hulk of a tank. Now they have brand-new sand-colored M1A1s etc., courtesy of the Highly Athletic Eyeraki Army's Flight Armored Corps.

Iraqi security forces had collapsed in face of the initial onslaught, with many abandoning their vehicles and weapons caches to the rebels

Al Jazeera's Imran Khan, reporting from Baghdad, said there was heavy fighting between rebels and security forces in Tal Afar, a mainly Turkmen Shia town 60km west of Mosul, and in Diyala province, which borders Iran.

There were no confirmed figures on casualties, but Shia tribal militias had suffered heavy casualties in Diyala, Khan said.

ISIL is also involved in the conflict in Syria, fighting both the government and opposition factions including al-Qaeda's affiliate in the country, Jabhat al-Nusra.

If they are fighting against AQ, why is that?

[vijaykarthik]

^^ Its simple, surely. The one significant and sensible guy who calls the shots in Syria & Iraq is Kasim Suleimani. And the US sure will like to talk to Iran [namely Suleimani through his cohorts as he is vaguely black listed by the US and is wanted for seberal biolent and birulent attaricities].

[vijaykarthik]

ISIL is also involved in the conflict in Syria, fighting both the government and opposition factions including al-Qaeda's affiliate in the country, Jabhat al-Nusra.

If they are fighting against AQ, why is that?

Why is what? Didn't get the question

[Philip]

O'Bomber acts decisively

Start evacuating the embassy!
US evacuates Baghdad embassy staff as ISIS militants overrun another town in northwest Iraq
Published time: June 15, 2014

Sunni insurgents led by ISIS jihadists captured the northwestern Iraqi town of Tal Afar on Sunday, reports say, as the militants continue their advance on Baghdad. The US says it is relocating some of its embassy staff to other Iraqi cities.

Follow RT's live updates on the situation in Iraq

The militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS/ISIL) overran the town after fighting with security forces, several people in the town told Reuters over the phone.

Iraqi Gen. Mohammed al-Quraishi confirmed to CNN that the city fell to Sunni rebels. Tal Afar is located in the Nineveh province and has a population of about 80,000 people, most of whom are Iraqi Turkmen.

ISIS has also reportedly captured two villages in Diyala province.

Meanwhile the US is increasing security at its embassy in Baghdad, the US State Department said, adding that some personnel will be moved out of the capital.

"Some additional US government security personnel will be added to the staff in Baghdad; other staff will be temporarily relocated - both to our Consulate Generals in Basra and Arbil and to the Iraq Support Unit in Amman,” the statement said. However, the “substantial majority” of embassy staff will remain in Iraq.

A US official speaking on condition of anonymity told Reuters that less than 100 US Marines and other military personnel are headed to Iraq to reinforce security at the Baghdad embassy.

"The Embassy of the United States in Baghdad remains open and will continue to engage daily with Iraqis and their elected leaders -- supporting them as they strengthen Iraq's constitutional processes and defend themselves from imminent threats," State Department spokeswoman said in a statement.

Meanwhile, US citizens have been advised to limit travel in five Iraqi provinces, including Anbar and Kirkuk.

On Saturday, US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel ordered that the USS aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush be moved to the Persian Gulf in case Washington decides to use military force in Iraq to help fight ISIS.

ISIS insurgents managed to seize the Iraqi cities of Mosul and Tikrit with an estimated 7,000-strong force. On Friday, Shia fighters attempted to counter ISIS momentum near Muqdadiya, just 80 km (50 miles) from Baghdad's city limits.

The UN said ISIS forces have carried out summary executions and rapes as the group battles to take over the country.

Once an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, the hyper-fundamentalist group active in Iraq and Syria fell out with the global terrorist network. It gained notoriety for its ruthless tactics, which include publicly crucifying and beheading those who violate their strict religious interpretations.

Iraq came under the influence of a Shia-majority government after the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime in 2003. Since the withdrawal of US troops in 2011, sectarian tensions have boiled over, resulting in Sunni insurgents increasingly waging war against the central government.

Are we going to see Saigon redux,this time in Baghdad? Well,if it happens,another great theme for a musical,?Miss Baghdad"!

Latest:Mortar shells hit the consulate at Hillah.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/us-con ... 24669.html

A mortar shell hit an hotel where the US consulate is based in Hillah, Iraq, but no casualties were immediately reported, police said.

The shell was one of five fired at the Babil Hotel complex at about 2.30am local time, with four of them exploding nearby and one hitting the three-storey building and causing some damage, said Capt. Muthana Khalid, spokesman for Hillah police.

In Baghdad, US Embassy spokeswoman Vicki Stein confirmed the attack, but she had different information about how many mortars were fired and where they landed. “One round impacted in the vicinity of the regional embassy office compound in Hillah. There were no casualties or injuries, and an investigation is being conducted,” she said.

Hillah is about 60 miles south of Baghdad. The mostly Shiite city has been the site of deadly attacks by Sunni-led insurgent groups.

[Paul]

Russia made the next move to wean novoroosiya away from Ukraine. Gazprom has stopped gas supplies for nonpayment of dues.

[UlanBatori]

Why is what? Didn't get the question

Question is, why is ISIS fighting Al Qaeda? Aren't they the same, per DubyaSmriti?

[Paul]

They are not really fighting per se. The ISIS does not take orders from zawahiri per press reports and this led to the split between them.

[anmol]

Russia Cuts Gas to Ukraine
by Keith Johnson, foreignpolicy.com
June 16th 2014

With tensions between Russia and Ukraine at fever pitch, Moscow unsheathed its energy weapon Monday, cutting off natural-gas supplies to Ukraine amidst a dispute over billions of dollars in unpaid bills. The gas cutoff, Russia's third in less than a decade, raises concern in Europe that one of its main sources of imported energy could be affected, with few realistic alternatives on the horizon.

A last-ditch effort by the European Union to broker a compromise between Russia and Ukraine broke down Sunday night. Monday morning, Gazprom, the big Russian gas firm, said it halted gas flows to Ukraine and that it won't ship any more until Kiev pays its hefty arrears and then prepays thereafter.

Gazprom said that Ukraine was guilty of "persistent nonpayment," and said Kiev owes it about $4.5 billion. Russian officials said they would only be willing to go back to negotiations if Ukraine settles its outstanding debt. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev blamed Ukraine for the crisis after it rejected "very beneficial, very preferential proposals" from Gazprom.

Ukrainian leaders sounded a defiant note after the shut off, saying the energy fight was part of a broader offensive by Moscow against the beleaguered country.

"This is not about gas. This is part of the general plan of Russia to destroy Ukraine," said Arseniy Yatseniuk, Ukraine's prime minister, according to the Financial Times. "Ukrainians will not pull $5 billion out of their pockets a year so that Russia can use this money to buy arms, tanks and planes and bomb Ukrainian territory."

European officials, led by European Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger, remained hopeful that the two sides could reach a deal. Europe and Ukraine suggested that Kiev partially pay off its overdue bills and that Gazprom lower its rate. But Gazprom insisted on a higher price for gas deliveries. A spokesperson for Oettinger said he offered Monday to continue mediating the dispute.

The gas cutoff comes on the heels of heightened tension between the two countries, after pro-Russian separatists shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane Saturday, killing 49 people. In response, protesters attacked the Russian embassy in Kiev, sparking outrage in Moscow.

For Europe, the gas cutoff is a reminder of the continent's reliance on Russian energy -- and the risk of supply shortages. In the winter of 2006, and again in 2009, Russia cut off gas exports to Ukraine, which affected European customers as well. About 15 percent of Europe's natural gas comes through Ukraine.

The shutoff is a reminder of Russia's willingness to flex its energy muscles to cow other nations. At the same time, after decades of relying largely on Europe as an export market for natural gas, Russia is increasingly looking east. In May, it inked a massive deal with China and Russian officials hope to land a second big contract. That could give Moscow even more leverage in dealing with European gas buyers.

For now, the Russian shutoff hasn't affected flows to Europe, European Union officials said. But natural-gas prices spiked in London and Holland on the news of the cutoff.

One big difference from previous gas interruptions is the time of year: gas demand is much lower in summer than in winter. And storage levels in Ukraine and Europe could keep them running for months. But the energy problem will be acute later this year if the dispute continues and European countries can't replenish their stocks.

In the short term, Kiev's energy options are limited. It can get gas from other European countries, such as Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, but that would meet less than half its annual demand. And there are few other alternatives: Plans to build a terminal to import liquefied natural gas via tanker were revived after the energy fight with Moscow heated up earlier this year, but the country can't import LNG until it is finished.

And although many U.S. lawmakers have touted the prospects of tapping the U.S. energy boom to supply friends in Europe and Asia with cheap energy, the United States won't be able to export meaningful volumes of gas until close to the end of the decade. Even if it can ship out enough, LNG is more expensive than Russian gas sent to Europe by pipeline.

Dmitry Serebryakov - AFP - Getty

[vijaykarthik]

@UB:

ISIS splintered from AQ a few months back. Or rather AQ called the deal off. They found the ISIS too violent even by *their* own standards. And ISIS kept fighting the Nusra front even while they were in Syria sometime in end of 2013 and AQ didn't like that... asked them to call it off or else, well, long story short. ISIS alsmost said Bravo, Alpha, Lima, Lima, Sierra... and AQ called it off.

Saw a nice article on guardian yday: Ok, this is NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/15/world ... c=rss&_r=0

guardian here: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... eturn-isis

Interesting articles. In their own ways.

As to my own personal opinion: As I wondered out aloud in the other thread, I still think it can be tied together... Obama going to meet Abdullah, arming moderate Syrian rebels, them coming into Iraq etc etc. As they said hindsight is 20/20. And an Army gnrl as early as Feb has testified that there is a strong possibility that ISIS will capture territory in 2014 as a show of strength and the idiots still armed the rebels. And a few are clamoring for more arms. Not less. What do those guys eat for breakfast?

[UlanBatori]

All they have to do is send arms to Pakistan, and they will be given to the Al Qaeda, who will use them to defeat ISIS... and in case Al Qaeda starts getting too powerful and starts using them against US-trained Afghanistan, the ISIS can be armed to counter them too.

Arms to Pakistan, Arms to Al Qaeda, Arms to ISIS, Arms to the Afghan Army to pass on the Taliban, Arms to the Iraqi Army to pass on to ISIS...

Doesn't that sound totally logical by WHOTUS/SD standards?

[Philip]

Ferpectly! as Obelix would say. Reminds one of a recent cartoon of Uncle Sam giving a bomb to a chain of Islamic "allies",like Pak,etc.etc., who simply pass them on behind,until the bomb ends up right under Uncle Sam's backside!

Meanwhile,O'Bomber orders a massive troop "surge" into Iraq for the defence of Baghdad (fooled you,the embassy only!),numbering a mighty 275 to fend off the hordes of ISIS! Famous Yanqui saying (copied from the Paki army),"One Yanqui soldier is equal to 100 ISIS street arabs".

RT

Obama announces 275 troops to deploy to Iraq for embassy security in Baghdad
US President Barack Obama has announced 275 US troops will be deployed to Iraq to provide security for the US Embassy in Baghdad as Sunni insurgents continue to test the nation’s security forces in its push closer to the capital.

[vijaykarthik]

^^ a better headline would be 275 deter-gents to counter Sunni insurgents.

IN another ironical move, George HW Bush is arriving in Iraq... the warship, that is. So timely. And didn't the old George Bush just celebrate his birthday a few days back. Tee hee hee.

[Yagnasri]

Sending Carrier named Bush to Gulf now. Master stroke - Obomber style.

[alexis]

^^
This is Eastern Europe thread and not West Asia thread!!!

[Raja Bose]

UB, Philip why are you guys discussing Eyerak in Eastern Europe thread, hain? Please take your discussion to the West Asian thread.

[vijaykarthik]

Yet another day, yet another happening. Now that Gazprom has cut off supplies, what next? First, they complained of Russian tanks. Next, abused Putin. Gazprom gives a strict deadline and turns off the spigots. Somewhere in the middle, a plane was shot down and the chocolate soldier started melting in the mouth.

Welcome to end game.

[vijaykarthik]

Unilateral cease fire announced by Ukraine.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27902109#

[Yagnasri]

Seems cutting gas, shooting down plane and sending tanks with out marks worked. Ba**s of Nazis in Kiev seems to have turned into Jelly. Cease fire now. Putin should have done this weeks before and save lot of life.

In any event Obomber made peace and created hope in the east and can be given one more Nobel along with Kerry.

[Philip]

Chocolate soldier blinks?

Ukraine's head honcho,Poroshenko has offered a unilateral ceasefire in the east after his forces killed two Russian Journalists and an Italian national,apart from over a hundred civilians.he now hopes to work out a ceasefire with Putin.Nut why the sudden change of heart after his days of bluff and bluster,vowing to recapture the Crimea,blah,blah.

The reasons may be two major ones. First the killing of the Russian journos,the shooting down of the UKR IL-76,showing that he could not prevent the separatists from upping the ante,an enraged Moscow and the hint that more heavy mil. aid would be forthcoming after a few tanks,supposedly Russian along with MBRLs were seen in separatist possession. That Poroshenko would receive an even bloodier face after the loss of the heavy transport and large loss of life became evident to him.The bombs found supposedly meant for him another broad hint to him about his vulnerability.But the straw that has broken his back has been the developments in Iraq,where ISIS has seen a dramatic shift,an about turn in US and Western attention to Iraq and the loss of the Iraqi oil to the ultra-extremist outfit who make AlQ look like boy scouts. The UKR is now a sideshow,a tangential matter of some petty importance when compared with the global catastrophe of events in Iraq,which threaten the stability of energy supplies and a vast ultra-Islamist caliphate stretching from the Iranian border to the Levant and Meditt. if its ambitions of overthrowing the Assad regime in Syria takes place.The consequences for the globe and Israel are terrifying.Poroshenko has now been left in the lurch and will have to depend upon none other than Vladimir Putin for his political survival! If Putin takes advantage of the West's abandonment of the Ukraine as Baghdad shivers in its skin awaiting the onslaught of ISIS,and simply supplies some heavy eqpt. like tanks, MICVs SAMs, MBRLs,etc.,etc.plus sending in some unofficial "advisers".Poro will end up like toro in the bullring,barbecue meat.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... imir-putin
Ukraine unveils plans for ceasefire

Shaun Walker in Moscow
theguardian.com, Wednesday 18 June 2014 13.00 BST

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko with defence chiefs at a military academy in Kiev. Photograph: Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Ukraine's president has announced plans for a unilateral ceasefire as part of a "peace plan" designed to end fighting in the east of the country.

The announcement came not long after Petro Poroshenko spoke by telephone to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, raising hopes that the latest attempt to solve the crisis might win the support of the Kremlin.

"The plan will begin with my order for a unilateral ceasefire," said Poroshenko, speaking at a military academy in Kiev. "I can say that the period of the ceasefire will be rather short. We anticipate that immediately after this the disarming of the illegal military formations will take place."

There were also reports on Wednesday that Poroshenko plans to replace a number of key ministers, including the foreign minister.

Andriy Deshchytsia, the current acting minister, achieved notoriety over the weekend after being caught on camera calling Putin a "dickhead". Russia's foreign ministry said it would never speak to Deshchytsia again after the incident.

Ukraine's defence minister, Mikhail Koval, said the ceasefire could begin in a matter of days.

Fighting has continued in the east, with two Russian journalists the latest casualties as the Ukrainian army shelled separatist fighters on Tuesday. More than 300 people are believed to have died since the fighting began.

Poroshenko spoke to Putin late on Tuesday, and the conversation "touched on the theme of a possible ceasefire", the Kremlin said. The Ukrainian president also discussed the plan with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said that the ceasefire should be permanent. He did, however, say that if negotiations followed it could be "the step President Poroshenko has promised and which in general we were all waiting for".

It is unclear how the separatists will react to such an offer. Armed groups have occupied a number of government buildings and declared quasi-independent statelets. There is the prospect of an intensified Ukrainian assault on any remaining fighters after the ceasefire expires.

Kiev has blamed Russia for arming and directing the rebels in the east, and Poroshenko said on Wednesday that Ukraine was caught up in a "new type of war".

"This is war … using professional diversionary groups, mercenaries, volunteers and the local population. The volunteers and the local populations have been brainwashed by the information war."

The office of the UN high commissioner for human rights released an important report on Ukraine on Wednesday, and the high commissioner, Navi Pillay, said the armed separatists in the east should put down their arms, accusing them of drawing themselves and the local population into a "dead end, which is leading simply to misery, destruction, displacement and economic deprivation".

She also told the Ukrainian government to "exercise restraint, ensure that security operations are in line with international standards at all times, and take great care to protect civilians when engaging with armed groups".

Also on Wednesday, Russia's investigative committee said it was investigating Ukraine's interior minister and a billionaire regional governor on suspicion of criminal acts as part of the military operation in the east.

Vladimir Markin, spokesman for the committee, said in a statement that Arsen Avakov and Ihor Kolomoisky were "literally drowning the country in the blood of its own people" and said they were being investigated on a range of charges. It was unclear how a Russian body has the jurisdiction to investigate the alleged crimes.

[vijaykarthik]

MMh, as expected, the ceasefire has been kissed goodbye. About 4k troops & APC etc etc has moved in to E Ukraine. Not a chance for diplomacy of any kind to work from here?

Cibil Bar Redux. At one place in ME, the Baiju refinery is seeing flames and oil getting burnt and in the other end, the spigots are closed and there is yet another war.

As Creed aptly puts it; What is this life for?

[Austin]

Now NATO Chief blames Russia for supporting anti Shale in Europe

Russia in secret plot against fracking, Nato chief says

Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Russia was mounting a sophisticated "disinformation campaign" aimed at undermining attempts to exploit alternative energy sources such as shale gas

Russia is secretly working with environmental groups campaigning against fracking in an attempt to maintain Europe's dependence on energy imports from Moscow, the secretary-general of Nato has said.

Speaking at the Chatham House foreign affairs think-tank in London, Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Russia was mounting a sophisticated disinformation campaign aimed at undermining attempts to exploit alternative energy sources such as shale gas.

He said: "I have met allies who can report that Russia, as part of their sophisticated information and disinformation operations, engaged actively with so-called non-governmental organisations - environmental organisations working against shale gas - to maintain European dependence on imported Russian gas. That is my interpretation."

Mr Rasmussen did not say what form the Russians' engagement with the environmentalists took or whether groups concerned were aware that they were dealing with Moscow's agents.

He said that improving energy security was of the "utmost importance" and required European nations to develop more diverse sources of supply.

"It also, in my opinion, involves the better functioning of the European energy market so that one single supplier is not able to able to blackmail one single nation," he said.

Greenpeace dismissed Mr Rasmussen's comments as "preposterous".

A spokesman said: "Greenpeace had thirty of its people locked up in Russian prisons last year, threatened with fifteen years in jail.

"The idea we’re puppets of Putin is so preposterous that you have to wonder what they’re smoking over at Nato HQ.

"Mr Rasmussen should spend less time dreaming up conspiracy theories and more time on the facts.

"Fracked gas will probably cost more than Russian imports, there’s little chance fracking will generate more than a small fraction of Europe’s gas needs and it won’t even do that for at least ten years.

"Greenpeace has detailed plans for energy policies which would remove the need for any Russian gas imports to Europe entirely."

Andrew Pendleton, the head of campaigns at Friends of the Earth, said: “We’ve consistently urged the Government to end our dependence on dirty fossil fuels from abroad by developing Britain’s home-grown renewable energy.

“Perhaps the Russians are worried about our huge wind and solar potential, and have infiltrated the UK Government.”

The Department of Energy and Climate Change said it will not be commenting on the matter.

Mr Rasmussen made the comments as he confirmed that thousands of Russian troops are amassing on the border with Ukraine.

Urging member states to increase their defence spending, he said the international alliance had intelligence that Russian forces were gathering and insisted Nato would "not hesitate" to take further steps to ensure security in the region.

The alliance chief said it was vital that members committed to investment in defence, as he revealed Russian spending has increased by 50 per cent in the last six years, while Nato allies decreased theirs by a fifth.

After a speech on the future of the multi-national alliance, he said: "I can confirm that we are now seeing a Russian military build-up along the Ukrainian border."

He said that "at least a few thousands more Russian troops" are now deployed to the frontier and troop manoeuvres were being seen in the "neighbourhoods of Ukraine".

"I consider this a very regrettable step backwards, and it seems that Russia keeps the option open to intervene further into Ukraine," he said.

"I do believe the international community would have to respond in a firm manner if Russia were to intervene further in Ukraine."

[Philip]

Chocolate soldier Poroshenko has warned of a "PLan B" if his ceasefire does nto work.The ceasefire,also welcomed by Pres.Putin,however has seen little favour with the Donetsk Independent Republic fighters,who do not trust Kiev a farthing.
The chocolate soldier's farting about his "plan B" is just what the easterners are afraid of,that the ceasefire is just a duplicitous means to get them to disarm,and then in one fell swoop,exterminate them .

http://rt.com/news/167584-ukraine-poros ... ceasefire/
Poroshenko warns of ‘detailed Plan B’ if Ukraine ceasefire fails
Published time: JuPoroshne 22, 2014

If his current proposal for a truce, which came into force on Friday, fails to bring results, Ukraine’s newly elected president Petro Poroshenko warns he has an alternative “detailed plan” of regaining control over south-eastern Ukraine.

“Peaceful scenario – it is our plan A,” Poroshenko said in a statement on his website. “But those who expect to use the peace talks only to gain time to regroup, should know that we have a detailed plan B. I am not going to talk about it now, because I believe that our peace plan will work.”

The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine took effect on June 20 and will last until June 27, the day Kiev plans to sign the EU Association agreement.

However, “the military will be given the right to return fire if Ukrainian army units or peaceful civilians are attacked,” Poroshenko said in his decree. Since then, the tensions have slightly eased in some areas, but the Ukrainian army is still using artillery and the air force in sporadic clashes with anti-Kiev militias.

Poroshenko claims the ceasefire is designed to enable local self-defence militias to lay down their arms and flee the country, or be destroyed. He also, while drafting the plan with Kiev-appointed governors of the defiant regions, rejected any possibility of negotiations with representatives of anti-Kiev forces.

While welcoming Kiev’s ceasefire efforts, the Russian president said the current peace plan on the table “should not take the form of an ultimatum to militia groups,” according to the Kremlin statement. It’s not enough to just put hostilities on pause, but vital to immediately start “constructive negotiations” to reach a viable compromise between the parties to the conflict.

“Russia notes that the proposed plan will not be viable or realistic if no practical steps are taken to commence the negotiation process,” the statement reads, shedding doubt that it would work as “the confrontation continues and shells from the Ukrainian side land and explode on the Russian territory.”

Speaking to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, Putin said he supported Poroshenko’s “intentions,” but added that the Ukrainian president’s plan “should be reinforced by a real ceasefire."

READ MORE: Russian checkpoint on Ukraine border comes under fire

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that most clauses of President Poroshenko's peace plan look more like an ultimatum to the militias in Donetsk and Lugansk regions rather than an invitation to dialogue.

“The plan lacks the key thing – a proposal to start dialogue. This is a drastic departure from the Geneva statement of April 17 which is still supported by all of our Western partners, the United States, the European Union and the Ukrainian authorities or at least they say so,” Lavrov told journalists during his visit to Saudi Arabia.

OPINION: Ukraine peace plan is ‘Poroshenko’s PR move in a form of ultimatum’

Lavrov once again highlighted that Moscow is alarmed that Kiev continues the shelling, which now impact Russian border crossings with Ukraine.

“We are very much alarmed and worried by the fact that simultaneously with the announcement of the peace plan, a military operation was stepped up, which resulted in people wounded on the Russian side,” he said.

Despite the “unilateral ceasefire,” fighting continues in the southeast of the country. While in general the situation is “calm,” there have been clashes in some areas, the Lugansk People’s Republic said in a statement. It was reported that an artillery shell hit the roof of a kindergarten in Kramatorsk, partly destroying the building. At the same time, self-defense troops of the Donetsk People’s Republic targeted positions of Ukrainian armed forces at Karachun Mountain, Itar-Tass reports.

[Y. Kanan]

It's hard to get any kind of accurate picture of the Ukraine fighting so far.

How well have the pro-Russian rebels fared against Ukrainian govt forces?

From what I could glean from various reports over the past few weeks, it looks like about 500-1000 rebel combatants and 150 Ukrainian troops have died. Hundreds of civilians have died in the govt shelling also. Much has been made of the few rebel successes in the fighting, but overall it looks more like the rebels are getting pretty decisively thrashed anytime they try to stand up and fight the govt troops head on. The rebels seem to only have success when they engage in random hit and run attacks. They've also scored a few lucky hits on helos and transport planes, but not enough to affect the situation on the ground.

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that without direct Russian intervention the rebels are going to be completely routed in weeks. The Ukrainian military has proven more effective at this counterinsurgency warfare than expected.

I don't think the Russians are going to have the luxury of avoiding direct combat. Moscow doesn't want more sanctions but the only alternative is let Ukraine's central govt crush the rebels and win a decisive victory against Russian interests in the region. Putin faces the embarrassment of complete and total failure in Ukraine. I'm not sure which is harder for Putin to stomach: failure in Ukraine or punishing Western sanctions if he intervenes.

[habal]

It's about time Russia came into Eastern Ukraine *officially* and pour hot water over some Plan B. Americans want to force Russia into some war before Moscow achieves fiscal independence and alternate forms of revenue so they will keep needling Poroshnko over Plan B, Plan C, Plan D, Plan E, Plan F.

[Austin]

See no reason why he should intervene in E Ukraine and play into US hands.

As long as the OSCE roadmap gets implemented which was agreed by all sides including EU then that should be good.

Putin wanted Crimea for geo-political reasons and thats what he got beyond that he said he has no intention to go in to E Ukraine or any where else.