Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 23 Jun 2014 11:29

But the eastern region gives Russians an excellent opportunity to finger Kiev.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Jun 2014 11:31

Ukraine under new president set to sign EU AA on June 27. Meanwhile Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh will impose trade barriers and cancel free trade status within CIS for Ukraine.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_2 ... aine-4866/

"These aren't sanctions or discrimination, but just a return to the level that exists for third countries," the source said, adding that the above measures would be put in place in case of a sharp increase in Ukrainian imports or the smuggling of goods from third countries.

The meeting will look into what exactly customs duties for Ukraine will be like, whether all of them will be raised or it will be done on a selective basis.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Jun 2014 11:32

Pratyush wrote:But the eastern region gives Russians an excellent opportunity to finger Kiev.

That would any way be the case based on demographic as the recent events has shown.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Jun 2014 12:13

Funny how the Polish FM in front of CNN is all praise for US and Polish-US relation but in private conversation

Leaked tape has Polish FM comparing ties with US to giving oral sex

According to Wprost, Sikorski is skeptical about the reliance of Poland, one of the staunchest allies of Washington in Eastern Europe, on American protection.

“The Polish-American alliance is not worth anything. It’s even damaging, because it creates a false sense of security in Poland,” Sikorski allegedly said.

“Complete bullshit,” the tape purportedly records Sikorski as saying. “We will get a conflict with both Russians and Germans, and we’re going to think that everything is great, because we gave the Americans a blowjob. Suckers. Total suckers.”

Sikorski further blamed the nature of relations between Warsaw and Washington on the Polish mentality.

“The problem in Poland is that we have a very shallow pride and low self-esteem,” he allegedly said, decrying such a mindset as “Murzyńskość”, a racially-charged derogative term that could be translated as “thinking like a negro.” Sikorski suggested on Twitter the translation should be “negritude,” linking it to the anti-colonialism movement in Europe.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 24 Jun 2014 06:07

Austin wrote:Ukraine under new president set to sign EU AA on June 27. Meanwhile Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh will impose trade barriers and cancel free trade status within CIS for Ukraine.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_2 ... aine-4866/

"These aren't sanctions or discrimination, but just a return to the level that exists for third countries," the source said, adding that the above measures would be put in place in case of a sharp increase in Ukrainian imports or the smuggling of goods from third countries.

The meeting will look into what exactly customs duties for Ukraine will be like, whether all of them will be raised or it will be done on a selective basis.

Russia annexed Crimea and EU annexed Ukraine. EU has endless tricks in its bag for Ukraine. Can Russia or its friends do anything to change that?

The Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement is a treaty between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine that establishes a political association between the two parties. The parties committed to cooperate and converge policy, legislation, and regulation across a broad range of areas, including equal rights for workers, steps towards visa-free movement of people, the exchange of information and staff in the area of justice, the modernization of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and access to the European Investment Bank. The parties committed to regular summit meetings, and meetings among ministers, other officials, and experts

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jun 2014 08:31

The picture presented for EU AA is rosy ...the real impact on Economy will be known in 2-3 years.

Considering EU Economy is not in a state where they were 10 years back , it would be uphill task for EU to support Ukraine Economy far less its industry in East.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Jun 2014 08:52

Light at the end of the tunnel?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... sk-donetsk

Pro-Russian separatists agree to honour Ukraine ceasefire
Separatist leaders in Luhansk and Donetsk will observe ceasefire until Friday and release OSCE observers held captive

Association Press in Donetsk
theguardian.com, Monday 23 June 2014

ukraine ceasefire
The ceasefire in Ukraine is holding after pro-Russian rebels promised to respect it, but the Ukraine military is still enlisting new recruits like these seen in Kiev. Photograph: Sergii Kharchenko / Pacific Pres

Pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine agreed on Monday to respect a ceasefire declared by the Ukrainian president, raising hopes for an end to months of fighting that have killed hundreds and ravaged the country's industrial heartland.

The announcement came as the Russian and US presidents traded demands over the conflict. Russian president Vladimir Putin urged direct talks between the government and the rebels. President Barack Obama warned Putin that Moscow will face additional costs if it does not help ease the crisis.

The insurgents' pledge to respect the ceasefire came on the first day of talks between a former Ukrainian president, the Russian ambassador, European officials and the eastern separatists who have declared independence. While the government side was nominally not represented, ex-president Leonid Kuchma attended the discussions at the request of the sitting president.

The negotiations were launched in line with president Petro Poroshenko's peace plan, which started Friday with a weeklong unilateral ceasefire in the fighting that has killed more than 350 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes.

Alexander Borodai, one of the rebel leaders who took part in Monday's talks in Donetsk, said rebels would respect Poroshenko's ceasefire, which lasts through to Friday.

The insurgents had previously demanded the Ukrainian military withdraw its troops from the east as a condition for any talks, so Borodai's statement represented a softened stance that raised expectations that the ceasefire could hold. Even before the insurgents made their pledge, the government said that there had been no fighting in the east since Monday morning.

Since the ceasefire was declared Friday, the Ukrainian government has accused the rebels of firing at government positions, while insurgents blamed Ukrainian forces for failing to honor the promise to halt hostilities. Poroshenko has said government troops will fire back if attacked.

The rebels, who have declared regions on border with Russia independent and fought government troops for two months, also promised to release observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) who have been held hostage.

"This will be one of the steps that will improve the mutual understanding of both sides," said Alexei Karyakin, a representative of the insurgents in the Luhansk region.

In Moscow, the Kremlin said Putin underlined in his conversation with Obama that to normalise the situation in eastern Ukraine, it's necessary to "effectively end fighting and start direct talks between the conflicting parties."

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Obama urged Putin to use his personal influence with the separatists to promote peace and stability in Ukraine, stop backing the insurgents and halt the flow of arms across the border. Earnest said that while the US believes a diplomatic solution to the crisis is still possible, "Russia will face additional costs if we do not see concrete actions to de-escalate the situation."

Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of fomenting the rebellion in the east by sending troops and weapons across the border. Moscow has denied that and insisted that Russian citizens who joined the insurgents were volunteers.

Poroshenko's office said Monday that he has offered Russia a chance to send its own observers to join the OSCE mission in Ukraine to see that government troops were observing the cease-fire.

Monday's talks involved Ukraine's ex-president Leonid Kuchma, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine and an envoy from the OSCE. Poroshenko has ruled out talks with those he calls "terrorists," so inviting Kuchma to mediate offered a way to conduct talks without the government's formal engagement.

Kuchma, who served as president from 1994 to 2005, comes from the east and is an astute political player respected by both sides. His ex-chief of staff, Viktor Medvedchuk, has lived in Russia and reportedly has close ties to Putin, was also at the talks.

If both sides observe the ceasefire, "then a normal peace process could start," Kuchma told reporters after Monday's talks.

Poroshenko's deputy chief of staff, Valeryi Chalyi, said in televised remarks that Monday's talks were a "move in the right direction."

Russian Ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Zurabov, voiced hope that the talks would ensure a "lasting truce" and the "launch of an inclusive negotiation process."

Putin publicly expressed support Sunday for Ukraine's declaration of a ceasefire and urged both sides to negotiate a compromise, which, he said, must guarantee the rights of the Russian-speaking residents of eastern Ukraine.

Putin clearly intends to maintain pressure on the Ukrainian government in Kiev to give the country's eastern industrial regions more powers, which would allow them to keep close ties with Russia and serve the Kremlin's main goal of preventing Ukraine from joining Nato.

But the Russian leader also wants to avoid more crippling sanctions from the US and particularly from the European Union, whose leaders will meet Friday in Brussels, and therefore needs to be seen as cooperating with efforts to de-escalate the conflict.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 24 Jun 2014 17:03

2 more interesting things:
a. I did read a headline quickly that peace failed in Donetsk and there was commotion and both pro-Russians and Choco chip soldiers fought.
b. Putin asks Diet to repeal the request for mil intervention in Ukraine

However, Putin and Obama talked yesterday. However, however, Putin isn't the guy to act after talking to Obama?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jun 2014 22:13

Revocation of right to use army in Ukraine does not mean Russia to ignore events there - Putin

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jun 2014 07:54

"Putin the Peacemaker"--Western press.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 59301.html
Ukraine crisis: Country welcomes Vladimir Putin’s decision to step back from invasion

President Vladimir Putin has asked Russia’s upper house to revoke the right it granted him to invade Ukraine in defence of Russian-speakers there.

Mr Putin’s abandoning of the right to invade might suggest a change in approach and will be welcomed by the West as a sign Moscow could be ready to help engineer a settlement in Ukraine’s largely Russian-speaking east, where a pro-Russian uprising against Kiev began in April.

Mr Putin’s spokesman said his move was aimed at assisting the fledgling peace talks to end the conflict.

The Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called it a “first practical step”, following Mr Putin’s statement of support last weekend for Mr Poroshenko’s peace plan for eastern Ukraine.

In the 1 March resolution, the Federation Council had granted Mr Putin the right to “use the Russian Federation’s armed forces on the territory of Ukraine until the social and political situation in that country normalises”.

That resolution, together with Russia’s annexation of Crimea, helped to send East-West relations to their lowest point since the Cold War and led the US and Europe to impose sanctions on Moscow. Two days ago European Union foreign ministers warned of further sanctions if Russia did not do more to support a peace process in eastern Ukraine, and they also asked for the revocation of the 1 March resolution.

Since then, rebels in eastern Ukraine have agreed to a temporary ceasefire to give time for peace talks in a forum where Russia is represented alongside the Kiev government and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. However, Kiev said a Ukrainian helicopter was shot down by rebel fire near Slovyansk today, with nine feared dead.

It came as Russian shares rose strongly, with the dollar-denominated RTS index rising almost 1 per cent immediately after the news, hitting levels not seen since mid-January. The rouble was also higher.

“The President has filed a proposal to the Federation Council on cancelling ... the resolution on the use of Russia’s armed forces on the territory of Ukraine,” the Kremlin said on its website.

Valentina Matviyenko, the current chair of the Federation Council, said the chamber would discuss Mr Putin’s request today. The deputy head of the chamber’s international affairs committee, Andrei Klimov, said he expected the resolution to pass.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... -ceasefire
Ukraine crisis: Putin removes threat of military intervention after ceasefire
President cancels ruling allowing Russian troops to cross border but Ukrainian helicopter is shot down as fighting continues

Xcpt:

Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's new president, announced a unilateral ceasefire on Friday that he said would last a week and would give separatists a chance to go or lay down their arms and get amnesty as long as they had not committed serious crimes.

Despite promising negotiations few thought Poroshenko would speak to leaders of the self-proclaimed "people's republics" in the east, whom Kiev had branded "terrorists".

But on Monday surprise talks took place in Donetsk, one of the centres of the rebel movement, involving Poroshenko's representative, the former Ukraine president Leonid Kuchma, and separatist leaders. Also in attendance was an OSCE representative, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine, and a pro-Russia Ukrainian politician, Viktor Medvedchuk, who is on the US sanctions list for his role in the annexation of Crimea, but who Putin has said should play a key role in any negotiations.

After the meeting, the self-styled prime minister of the Donetsk people's republic, Alexander Borodai, said the rebels would also agree to the ceasefire. Previously, the insurgents had said there could be no talk of ceasefire until Ukrainian troops were withdrawn from east Ukraine, suggesting that the rebels, or those who control them, had decided to soften their stance. Borodai is a Russian citizen and was in Moscow for consultations in the days preceding the negotiations.

One has to hand it to Putin.Maintaining relentless pressure upon the Kiev clique,with an Il-76 and now another helicopter shot down,the clique's forces unable to stop such events,so that they eventually have to bite the carrot of a peace offer,but with Russian rules.Autonomy for the east and no NATO expansion or EU eco stranglehold on the east.That has always been pres.Putin's stand from the beginning of the crisis.Eventually he will get his way and the chocolate solider can go back to "sweetning" the unpalatable deal with a chocolate coated pill for the rest of the UKR!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jun 2014 15:15

Putin: US unhappy with South Stream because it wants to deliver gas to Europe
Published time: June 24, 2014

http://rt.com/business/168224-putin-usa-europe-gas/

The US opposes the Russian South Stream gas pipeline project because it wants to supply gas to Europe itself, President Putin said on Tuesday. He called the situation an "ordinary competitive struggle."

READ MORE: Austria and Russia sign South Stream gas pipeline treaty

“They do everything to disrupt this contract. There is nothing unusual here. This is an ordinary competitive struggle. In the course of this competition, political tools are also being used,” the Russian president said after holding talks with his Austrian counterpart, President Heinz Fischer, in Vienna.

"We are in talks with our contract partners, not with third parties. That our US friends are unhappy about South Stream, well, they were unhappy in 1962 too, when the gas-for-pipes project with Germany was beginning. Now they are unhappy too, nothing has changed, except the fact that they want to supply to the European market themselves," Putin stated.

Should this happen, American gas “will not be cheaper than Russian gas – pipe gas is always cheaper than liquefied gas,” Putin stressed.

Russia and Austria have signed an agreement to construct the Austrian arm of the US$45 billion South Stream gas pipeline project, which is expected to deliver 32 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to the country, bypassing Ukraine.

But President Putin stressed that Moscow is not bypassing Ukraine for political reasons.

"These are natural steps to expand the transport infrastructure," Putin said. "[Moscow is not] striving to bypass Ukraine."

He reminded that the Nord Stream, South Stream, and Blue Stream projects started a while ago.

"It is wrong to always say that we are doing anything against anyone," Putin noted. He added that Russia, just like its “partners,” can and will “create the most favorable conditions, and have contacts and contracts with many partners.”

Russia will continue “to promote our product in emerging markets,” Putin stressed.

At the same time, Austrian President Heinz Fischer hailed the project, calling the South Stream gas pipeline “expedient” and “useful.”

The joint South Stream Austria project will be 50 percent owned by Gazprom – Russia's largest gas producer – and 50 percent owned by Austria’s OMV Group, the country’s largest oil and gas company.

Fischer stated that if anyone criticizes Austria, they should also criticize other member countries and their companies.

“I suppose that there will be no such moment when such a country as Austria will not be holding talks with a partner, which has intense relations with us, and will not be ready to negotiate with it,” the Austrian leader said.

“We know such a dialogue does not contradict any EU decision,” he added.

Construction of the Austrian section is expected to begin in 2015. The first deliveries could begin in 2017, reaching full capacity in January 2018.

OMV spokesman Robert Lechner was slightly more optimistic, saying the first South Stream deliveries to Austria could come as early as 2016.

PS:Poroshenko's alleged CIA links.

Poroshenko has been working for the CIA since 2006: Wikileaks Cables Confirm New Ukrainian President Has Been Working For US Gov’t Since 2006
http://readersupportednews.org/news-sec ... since-2006

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Jun 2014 11:51

Detailed info on Ukraine SU-25 fleet and its usage in "recent events"

http://militarizm.livejournal.com/23449.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Jun 2014 20:01

Austin, Indian elite under MMS and UPA also thought in Polish terms leading to repeated mistakes.
I would post that in the Indian Interests thread also.....

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 28 Jun 2014 02:44

Hey Phillip, whatever happened to your real soldier ?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Jun 2014 03:41

See how Russia can manipulate any EU nation. If the former SU nations are any pragmatic creatures they better live in the mould of Russia and grow instead of this fetish with western Europe and NATO stuff.

Russia uses energy & trade links to capitalize on European divisions. Subscribe to read more: http://bit.ly/1kiWOpQ

Added later:
It just creating lines to sell anyway and no one can blackmail it.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 28 Jun 2014 05:08

...
See how Russia can manipulate any EU nation...

There is some truth to it, but I don't agree with the above statement 100%. In theory, you can look at the graph and say they can "manipulate" because they can turn off the tap. But, they can't and they wont. Otherwise, they would have done it already, over OOkraine. Over last decade, if EU did not consume Ruski oil and gas, who else do you think had the economy of a size and capacity to take that energy and convert it into economic output that we consume in our daily lives. Unless following happens, that "manipulation" is not happening.
1. Russia advances its prospering, yet struggling economy, to make it #1 export destination for EU countries
2. Those pipelines from the graph send all or majority of oil and gas to China and India, which I don't understand why it can't happen, and
3. If #1 does not happen, and #2 happens, Russia does not need EU for its oil/gas exports, as rising Asia makes EU irrelevant from Russian POV

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 28 Jun 2014 05:41

India will be one of the major beneficiary of the EU Russia spat.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Jun 2014 05:50

udaym wrote: There is some truth to it, but I don't agree with the above statement 100%. In theory, you can look at the graph and say they can "manipulate" because they can turn off the tap. But, they can't and they wont.

I should have written differently. It is not "Russian Manipulation". It is the way they are building in such a way they can give the gas/oil to its customers in one way or other. Ukraine or Belarus or someone cannot blackmail Russia of cutting off pipelines. As they have all the backup, they can just cutoff oil/gas to Ukraine and divert to other routes.

It is in the interest of former SU countries to be independent but not have fetish of NATO and becoming a western stooges to challenge Russia. Trying to get into fight with Russia with whom they have deep cultural relations and blood relation is just a Paki behavior. In then end they all will be huge losers and nothing else.

Russia may not behave like USA in power display but it is capable to make all the lives miserable but can sustain itself without losses.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 28 Jun 2014 09:56

KK which one? If you refer to Putin,he's just waiting for the fruit to ripen.The chocolate soldier throwing his hat into the EU,is going to have repercussions an have been warned by Russia.I don't know how long the ceasefire will last.The wicked white witch Timoshenko ,who wanted Russia "nuked",now wants martial law to be imposed in the east.It's going to be exciting times for the UKR armed forces,more aircraft and helos waiting to be shot down.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Jun 2014 02:26

With the Eurasian Economic Union coming into force on January 1, 2015, there is immense potential to integrate the region stretching from Russia via Central Asia through Afghanistan and Pakistan into India.

Gazprom has shown interest in the TAPI pipeline that would supply gas to India from Turkmenistan, and there has also been talk of Russia constructing a similar pipeline, in a bid to supply India with more gas.

As long as Russia acts as a guarantor in that pipeline, there is very little chance that Pakistan will interrupt supplies to India.

Changes in EU is triggering a global change
http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2014/06/19/sta ... 36073.html

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 01 Jul 2014 11:13

This is a great article about the current situation in Ukraine and the Russian strategy. I recommend reading the whole thing. Excerpt below:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/ ... emory.html

As you know, I suffer from AMPD - "analytical multiple personality disorder": one one hand I simply cannot wait any longer for a Russian military intervention to finally stop the UkroNazi onslaught on Novorussia, while on the other hand I am fully aware that this would be a mistake. My gut tell me "crush these ********!" while my brain tells me "don't take the bait!".

Yesterday evening, after listening to the latest news, I was walking around with my now usual knot in my stomach: a dozen of different "what ifs" were tormenting me from inside: what if Putin has been intimidated or bought off? What if he does not have a plan and what if the current Russian stance is only a reflection of a frightening and confused Russian leadership? Or what if Putin and his advisers have cynically decided to trade Novorussia for Crimea or, even worse, Novorussia for lucrative contracts?

Judging by some of the comments posted here, there are many of you who apparently believe that I am a Putin-groupie and that I never have doubts about him. If only you knew how wrong you are! I have doubts, and I even have fears, but I try not to let them overwhelm me because I don't believe that these are helpful analytical tools. But to those of you who say that Putin is clueless or has sold out I will reply this: you have no more evidence of that than I have evidence of the contrary, and we will not know until this situation fully plays itself out.

So we are all stuck in the anguish of having to wait. To wait while innocent people are getting murdered, while the EU plutocracy is giving standing ovations to a clearly Nazi regime in Kiev and while Uncle Sam is making more threats against Russia every day. To anybody who truly and sincerely cares for the people of Novorussia is type of waiting is nothing short of a psychological torture. I can tell you that my last thought when I go to sleep and my very first thought when I wake up is:

How far can the Russians retreat?

Yesterday I suddenly realized that this is not the first time that this question is dividing the Russian society. During the European invasion of Russia under Napoleon (of the almost 700'000 soldiers which invaded Russia in 1812 only about half were French: the rest were from almost all the other European nations, mostly Germans and Poles) the very same issue divided Russian society. At the time both Field Marshal Barclay de Tolly and later Field Marshal Mihail Kutuzov were fiercely criticized for their policy of retreating before Napoleon's armies. Unlike what happened during WWII where the Soviet retreat was not planned but forced by a stunningly successful German attack, the Russian retreat in the War of 1812 was completely deliberate and, I would argue, logical. Things got so ugly that Barclay de Tolly (who was an ethnic Scotsman) was accused of being a coward and a secret agent for Napoleon. When the "ethnically correct" Russian Kutuzov (who had served with distinction under the most famous Russian general of all times, Alexander Suvorov, and whose patriotism and courage could not be put in doubt) was appointed to replace Barclay de Tolly, he decided to follow exactly the same strategy. In fact, Kutuzov ordered the Russian army to retreat as far as the small town of Borodino, roughly 120km west Moscow, before engaging the armies of Napoleon in a huge battle. The outcome of the battle was arguably a mutual bloodbath and a draw (I would call it a tactical victory for the French and an operational-strategic victory for the Russians), Kutuzov further pulled back his forces and gave up Moscow without firing a single shot! Pushed by his hubris and ego, Napoleon took the bait and entered Moscow waiting for the Russian side to hand him the keys of the city. The Russians never showed up and, after waiting (and using the Kremlin's churches as stables for his horses!), the "Grande Armée" began a hideous retreat. From the 690,000 men that comprised the initial invasion force, only 93,000 survived (barely, at the Berezina the European army was almost surrounded!) By March of 1814 the Russian army was camping in Paris and Talleyrant had to give the keys of Paris to the Russian Czar Alexander I.

There was more to this Russian strategy of retreat than just the desire to literally "trade space for lives" or the desire to place more stress on the enemy's supply lines. The Russians had painfully learned this strategy from the Mongols who often retreated before the advancing Russian forces before destroying them (typically by setting the steppe on fire and by a envelopment maneuver). In warfare, as in chess, timing is an absolutely crucial factor which cannot be ignored.

But coming back to Barclay the Tolly and Kutuzov, can we now even begin to imagine the kind of anguish they must have faced? Being called traitors, foreign agents, cowards by the entire court (safely removed from any personal risk in Saint Petersburg) and probably by most of Russian society? I don't think that anybody can imagine the kind of pressure to change strategy Alexander I, Barclay the Tolly and Kutuzov must have faced, especially after the surrender of Moscow. And yet, time has fully vindicated them and their superb strategic instincts. Though this is impossible to prove, the consensus if military historians us that had the Russian army given Napoleon his first real battle somewhere West of Smolensk it would have been smashed and ended up retreating just the same, but this time in complete chaos and very few survivors.

So the correct answer to the question above is: Russia can retreat as far as needed to win.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 01 Jul 2014 14:08

Excellent piece of long form journalism originally in Novaya Gazeta on the life and death of a Russian volunteer in Donetsk.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... ia-fighter

Here's the original in Russian

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/64052.html

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 01 Jul 2014 16:15

Chocolate soldier melts! No more cease fire. Here come the tanks, E Ukraine... loaded with toffees.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 01 Jul 2014 18:13

habal wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote: If true, this is a HUGE development and cannot be simply shrugged off by India as some sort of realpolitik by Russia.
It is a HUGE development, but considering how SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) has only reserves worth $500 million and revolves around that figure most of the time. It is also SMALL.

because Russians only deal in cash.

All free gifts to TSPA are given only by the Americans.

There's also a long history of oil rich Arab states funding Pakistani purchases from Europe.

Also, this is not completely unprecedented. Russian engines power the JF-17, and the PA flies 90 odd Mi-17s bought in a number of batches from the 90's onwards and through the Putin years.

This is hedging on both sides, driven by the US drawdown in Afghanistan.
- The Pakistanis in case the Americans reduce or cut aid once they're out of Afghanistan.
- The Russians, attempting to gain leverage and reduce the risk profile.

Both parties can turn this against their traditional partners
- Pakistan, demonstrating to the US that its willing to look elsewhere.
- Russia, egging India to order more Russian equipment and stop looking to the US.

The Kremlin is pumping an enormous amount of money in to its defence industrial complex attempting to recapitalise it, and there's a a real push for export sales.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 02 Jul 2014 00:11

Putin to West: Stop turning world into 'global barracks,' dictating rules to others
Published time: July 01, 2014
http://rt.com/news/169628-putin-ukraine-west-barracks/

Russia’s president has blamed the turmoil in Ukraine on the country’s newly-elected leader Petro Poroshenko. Vladimir Putin also criticized the West for its intention to turn the planet into a "global barracks."

Russia’s president has laid the blame for the ongoing turmoil between Kiev and south-eastern regions squarely at the feet of Petro Poroshenko, after the Ukrainian leader terminated the ceasefire.

He has stressed that Russia and European partners could not convince Poroshenko to not take the path of violence, which can’t lead to peace.

“Unfortunately, President Poroshenko has made the decision to resume military actions, and we – meaning myself and my colleagues in Europe – could not convince him that the way to reliable, firm and long-term peace can’t lie through war,” Putin said. “So far, Petro Poroshenko had no direct relation to orders to take military action. Now he has taken on this responsibility in full. Not only military, but also political, more importantly."

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko walks at the military camp near the town of Svyatogorsk in Eastern Ukraine, June 20, 2014 (Reuters / Stringer)

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko walks at the military camp near the town of Svyatogorsk in Eastern Ukraine, June 20, 2014 (Reuters / Stringer)

On Monday, the leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine held a phone call in which Putin stressed the need to prolong the ceasefire and the creation of “a reliable mechanism for monitoring compliance with it and the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] should play an active role.”

Russia offered that checkpoints on the Russian side should be monitored by representatives of the Ukrainian Border service as well as OSCE observers for “the joint control of the border.”

As the violent conflict continues in the east of Ukraine and the number of refugees fleeing to Russia grows, Putin vowed to provide help to everyone who needs it.

“Everything that’s going on in Ukraine is of course the internal business of Ukrainian government, but we are painfully sorry that people die, civilians,” Putin said. He added that the killing of journalists was “absolutely unacceptable.”

“In my opinion, there is a deliberate attempt to eliminate representatives of the press going on. It concerns both Russian and foreign journalists,” the president said.

‘West should stop turning world into 'global barracks'

Speaking in front of ambassadors on Tuesday, Putin expressed hope that Western partners will stop imposing their principles on other countries.

"I hope pragmatism will still prevail. The West will get rid of ambitions, pursuits to establish a ‘world barracks’ – to arrange all according to ranks, to impose uniform rules of behavior and life of society,” Putin said.

"I hope the West will start building relations based on equal rights, mutual respect and mutual consideration of interests.”

Putin recalled the situation with France and the delivery of the Mistral-class ships that was agreed between Moscow and Paris, but was jeopardized in March.

“We know about the pressure that our American partners put on the French so that they would not deliver the Mistral [ships] to Russia,” Putin said. “And we know that [they] hinted that if the French don't deliver Mistral, sanctions on banks will be gradually removed, or at least minimized. What is this, if not blackmail?"

A photo taken on May 9, 2014 in Saint-Nazaire, western France, shows the Vladivostok warship, a Mistral class LHD amphibious vessel ordered by Russia to the STX France shipyard. The Vladivostok warship is one of two navy ships ordered to France by the Russian army (AFP Photo)

A photo taken on May 9, 2014 in Saint-Nazaire, western France, shows the Vladivostok warship, a Mistral class LHD amphibious vessel ordered by Russia to the STX France shipyard. The Vladivostok warship is one of two navy ships ordered to France by the Russian army (AFP Photo)

Russia is ready to have dialogue with the US only bases of equality, Putin added.

“We are not going to stop our relations with the US. The bilateral relations are not in the best shape, that is true. But this - and I want to emphasize - is not Russia’s fault,” he told diplomats.

Speaking about international relations, Putin stressed that Russia always tried to be “predictable, to do business on an equal basis”, however, in return, its interests were quite often ignored.
‘Ukraine devised shady schemes to get gas’

Putin then touched upon a gas deal with Ukraine, saying that the country “devised some shady schemes with some of their partners” to get “the so-called reverse supplies.”

“It is artificial reverse traffic. There is no such thing in reality,” Putin said. “How is it possible to use the same pipe to pump gas both ways? You do not have to be a major specialist in the gas sector to understand that this is unrealistic," he said. “They have devised some shady schemes with some of their partners,” Putin added. “They are getting Russian gas and paying to some of their partners in Europe, who under-consume these amounts."

Meanwhile,with US backing,the "Chocolate soldier" goes to war.
Ukraine military resumes ‘active phase’ of operation against ant-govt forces
Published time: July 01, 2014

Massive artillery shelling and airstrikes have resumed in Eastern Ukraine after Kiev terminated a shaky ceasefire with local militias.

READ MORE: We’ll attack & free our land’: Ukraine president terminates ceasefire in east

“Starting this morning the active phase of the antiterrorist operation has resumed. Our forces are conducting strikes,” announced Aleksandr Turchinov, Ukrainian parliament speaker and former acting president.

Russia demanded that Kiev stop the military attacks on cities and announce a new ceasefire, which would result in an actual rather than a declarative pause in hostilities.

Reports of night gunfight and explosions came Tuesday morning from Donetsk, the capital of Donetsk Region.

By daytime, clashes started in the center of the city near a militia-controlled police station. The gunfire reportedly injured a passer-by and damaged many cars parked nearby. People fled a business center located in the vicinity.

There were also causalities in Kramatorsk, where a bus was fired at early in the morning, with four people reported killed by militia sources. Five people were reportedly injured in the incident.

Kramatorsk was also shelled overnight, with a residential building damaged by the artillery fire.

Near the village of Snezhnoye, a Ukrainian bomber jet was shot down by an anti-aircraft battery, militia claimed.

Andrey Lysenko, chairman of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, denied the claim, saying all military hardware is “in good shape and performing combat duties.”

No independent corroboration or disproval of the incident was immediately available. The militia has a record of shooting down Ukrainian military aircraft and both sides have been known to report false information concerning their victories and defeats in the past, which makes neither a completely reliable source.

The incident was not immediately confirmed by Kiev, but the militia has a record of taking down Ukrainian military aircraft.

Ukrainian tanks attacked a self-defense forces position near village of Karlovka in the east of the region, local news website 62uf reported.

Heavy artillery shelling was reported in Slavyansk, the militia stronghold that has been the focus of the Ukrainian military crackdown on the defiant east.

The intensified shelling sparked fresh outrage from civilians on the ground, whose homes and families suffer the artillery fire.

“There are no roadblocks here, nobody. Who are they shelling here? Look what the Ukrainian army did,” a Slavyansk resident told RT, showing the aftermath of a missile strike.

“If this government needs us, let them come and see. [President Petro] Poroshenko announced how glad he was after his grandson was born. We were glad for him. Let him come and see how people cry because their granddaughter is taken to Donetsk hospital with serious injuries,” another resident said.

The Slavyansk militia used mortars to shell the Karachun hill, a vantage point from which the Ukrainian artillery is regularly firing at the city. The attack resulted in the collapse of a TV relay tower.

The tower was already damaged in previous clashes, and fell on Tuesday after the remaining cables supporting it were cut.

Elsewhere in Donetsk Region, a railroad was damaged by several bombs, local police reported. In previous days the regions’ railroad system has been targeted by bombers several times, with one explosion happening just before a passenger train from Russia was about to pass. Luckily the conductor managed to stop the train in time to avoid any harm.

The renewed hostilities also affected bus transport in the region, as several bus routes have been canceled due to security concerns.

In neighboring Lugansk Region, the Ukrainian army attacked the militia-held border checkpoint Izvarino, local self-defense forces reported. At least two civilians were reportedly injured by stray fire.

READ MORE: Last word ‘camera’! Russian journalist killed in E. Ukraine working till dying breath

The fighting in Izvarino proved to be risky for Russian journalistscovering the confrontation. A news crew from Russia’s Ren-TV came under fire.

“A shell presumably fired by a howitzer landed next to our people,” Stasya Shulga, a spokesperson for the channel told RT. “It happened when they were working at a poultry farm, which was being shelled by the Ukrainian military.”

“[The correspondent] Denis Kulaga has concussion and can’t hear anything. His ears are bleeding. His cameraman has concussion too. The blast wave ripped the camera from his hands,” she added.

The onslaught comes after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko terminated on Monday midnight a ceasefire that somewhat deescalated the clashes in eastern Ukraine.

Russia criticized Kiev’s move to end the ceasefire, saying that it undermined efforts by Moscow, Berlin and Paris to launch diplomatic action to resolve the Ukrainian crisis peacefully.

The Russian Foreign Ministry accused Kiev of reneging on plans for peaceful resolution of the crisis discussed during negotiations, which also involved representatives of Eastern Ukraine, the OSCE and Russia, alleging that it was done “not without foreign influence, which went against the position of leading members of the European Union.”

“Once again we are calling on parties to stop using Ukraine as a bargaining chip in geopolitical games and to cease enforcing the criminal line towards suppression of the protest movement through force,”it said in a statement.

The ceasefire allowed for negotiations between Kiev and representatives of eastern Ukraine, which unfortunately ended with no peace plan.

While praised by foreign nations and international organizations, the Ukrainian ceasefire was occasionally violated by both sides of the conflict. The clashes didn’t stop as Ukrainian troops remained in their positions and neither side appeared to trust the other one to actually hold fire.

Parts of eastern Ukraine defied the political forces that came into power in Kiev after an armed coup in February. As Donetsk and Lugansk Regions voted in referenda for self-governance, Kiev authorities launched a military crackdown on the militias, branding their opponents terrorists. The campaign left hundreds of people, mostly civilians, killed and thousands fleeing for their lives.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Jul 2014 11:09

Interesting choice of Diplomat suggested for Russia with know history for Colour Revolution

Looks like Obama is keen to keep Pot Boiling on Russia/CIS to give Hillary a Good Chance of Winning.

McFaul 2.0: Ukraine "color" revolution architect Tefft coming to Russia

The choice by US President Barack Obama and the neo-conservative Cold War hawks running the US foreign policy establishment of John F. Tefft as the new US Ambassador to Russia should be setting off warning bells all over the Kremlin and in fact in all of the countries currently undergoing or targeted for US regime change/destabilization operations including Venezuela, Brazil, Syria and all other countries pursuing an independent foreign policy. With the current humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine and the rise of violent fascist forces, the fact that the chief architect of Operation Ukraine is now being sent to Russia is at once chilling and at the same time predictable.

After the spectacular failure of US Ambassador Michael McFaul to pull off a color revolution in Russia leading to his demise as the US top color revolution/destabilization specialist, the US as usual, rather than admitting it is wrong and pursuing a path of peace and promoting mutual cooperation, has decided to stubbornly snub its nose at the Kremlin and continue down a road of confrontation.

With the leadership of the US State Department prone to statements such as Victoria Nuland’s famous "F-the-EU", the body responsible for diplomacy on a continuous confrontational war footing and organizations like USAID co-opted to the CIA and involved in destabilization operations all of the world every country that has not been already "annexed" by Washington should take a very close look at who they are allowing to operate in their country.

This past April I summed up the choice as follows: "John F. Tefft, a Russia hater who served as US Ambassador to Ukraine, Georgia and Lithuania and promoted the invasion of South Ossetia while in Georgia, the current crisis and the resurgence of fascist forces in Ukraine and the rabid Russophobia and demonization of Russia in Lithuania, has been chosen to be the next US Ambassador to Russia. Tefft was extremely active and involved and one might say instrumental in bringing about the aforementioned anti-Russian events. As McFaul failed to organize the destabilization of Russia and the ouster of President Putin, apparently Obama is seeking more experienced hands."

With Tefft’s history in organizing the destabilization in Ukraine and his role as a key architect of the previous color revolution(s) there, his role in assisting to whatever degree the rise of anti-Russian neo-nazis and Russophobes in other former Soviet Eastern Bloc countries and most stunningly his role in the Georgian attack and the ensuing short war in South Ossetia it would be extremely justified for President Putin, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian Security Services to simply say no to the appointment.

The US is bent on destroying Russia and preventing Russia from being a competitive global power. That fact is documented, all but openly stated and is no longer a secret. Ukraine has made it more than obvious even for the staunchest Washington apologists and the idea of some "reset" or peaceful cooperation from the US side has become nothing but a fantasy. By its own confrontational policies, aggressive military expansion, unilateral sanctions and most importantly the almost completely transparent support of neo-nazis in Ukraine who are waging a war by proxy against Russia for the US and killing Russian journalists, ethnic Russians and anyone who is pro-Russian, the US has proven it is nothing but an unapologetic global aggressor bent on spreading its own hegemony by force at any cost (a fact laid out by the PNAC).

Regarding the appointment of Tefft there are two ways the scenario may play out, he may be turned down which is probably unlikely, or he may be accepted under the philosophy of "keeping my enemies as close as possible." As we saw with McFaul whose color-revolution attempts were neutralized almost from the day he arrived and whose tenure saw the expulsion of USAID, the Voice of America and the entire host of US subversive organizations, plans and individuals, Tefft will have an even harder time if he is allowed to set foot on the territory of Russia.

Given the fact that Tefft is already a known enemy of Russia unlike the smiling McFaul who played on the Trojan Horse of the reset, it would be interesting to watch if Tefft can get anything done at all, but with the stakes being the very integrity of the Russian State, there is a doubt that such a cat and mouse game is worth it. However, given the caliber of State’s "F-the-EU" employees, that risk might be overstated and Tefft is given more credit than he deserves.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Jul 2014 15:58

‘US hegemony in world has ended’ – Russia’s deputy security chief

The deputy head of Russia’s supreme security body says US international dominance is being replaced by multiple centers of power. He urged a global agreement on the results of the Cold War, warning that the world could otherwise become engulfed in chaos.

“The United States has an impression that the breakup of the Soviet Union was the only result of the Cold War. This is arguable, and this is possible. But no one has attempted to analyze the results or make any conclusions from the situation. The unipolar world headed by Americans simply appeared,” Evgeny Lukyanov told the RIA Novosti.

“However, this status quo was not built to last. New power centers have appeared on the international arena, including the BRICS nations, and Russia itself has managed to regain its stance. Nations openly declare their interests and demand respect to their basic rights. This is how the US hegemony on the international arena has ended and of course Washington officials cannot agree with this,” the Russian official stated.

Lukyanov emphasized in the interview that the USSR was no more.

“Russia is a different state, a participant of international processes and we want to have a say, we have national interests which we intend to defend,” he said.

“This caused the West to overreact, on the verge of hysteria. But you cannot ignore the ‘Russia factor’ in the world,” the official added.

Lukyanov told reporters that all nations should gather and reach an agreement finalizing the Cold War. He suggested that it is done at a global congress of all major players and said that the only existing organization for such task is the UN and its Security Council.

“Otherwise, we will have no rules of the game, no agreements. Violations will happen without concrete obligations, and the world will become less manageable and more chaotic,” he said.

Lukyanov also touched upon the current situation in Ukraine and mentioned that US advisors were actively helping the Kiev regime.

“I am talking about intelligence specialists and people from US power structures. Of course, these people do not limit themselves to advice, they are developing a strategic line that the authorities are following strictly in making their decisions,” he noted.

The official also recalled that Russia also used US advisors during the reforms of the early ’90s and said that the results of this cooperation could be a warning to everyone who decides to repeat it.

He also said that it was unlikely that Kiev officials could establish order while using mercenaries from private military companies, such as Greystone Limited. German press has reported earlier that about 400 contractors from US private security firms were taking part in the Ukrainian military operation against anti-government protesters in southeastern regions of the country.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 03 Jul 2014 04:27

Looks like the Russians are going to have to intervene now, despite Putin's urge to avoid the inevitable sanctions that will come. I believe Kiev has been under immense pressure from the US to launch an all-out attack on the separatists and force Russian intervention. This is the outcome the US wanted all along, as this will force Europe to slap stiff sanctions on Russia and cut off their oil imports. This is a great opportunity to sell US natural gas to the Europeans, who will now be forced to rely on US gas imports (which will cost twice what the Russians were charging).

Not only does this create a huge captive market for US natural gas, it will also cause the commodity price of natural gas to rise overall, which means the US companies can now charge their domestic customers far more. At present, US citizens enjoy relatively cheap natural gas (mainly used for power generation and heating homes). Now they'll be paying much more, which means even bigger profits for these natural gas producers like Exxon, Devon, & Chesapeak. So US and European customers lose, but US energy giants enjoy one of the biggest profit windfalls ever.

The US military industrial complex wins in this scenario as well. Hostilities with Russia will rise to levels not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis, which will give the MID all the political leverage it needs to roll back the defense spending cuts currently being proposed.

So you can see how egging Russia into war with Ukraine works out perfectly for the US powers that be, even if it means US and European citizens end up the biggest losers overall. But who cares? The people making US policy know their citizenry are too apathetic and easily manipulated to question the situation. With the cooperate mainstream media telling them what to think, US citizens will be cheering for war just as stupidly as they always have. They'll blame their higher electric and heating bills on Putin, no doubt!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Jul 2014 09:17

It's also an attempt to divert Russia's attention from more critical issues in Iraq and Syria,where Russia is a staunch all of Assad,along with Iran and China.The machiavellian mischief by the Saudis and sheikhdoms greatly responsible for the creation and nurturing of ISIS,is changing the map of the MEast.Strangely,the Saudi ,Gulfie great game of using ultra-extremist Islamists ISIS to do their dirty work fro them,finds its twin and echo in Pakistan,where the ISI (funny how similar the name is to ISIS,no coincidence what?) have done exactly that with their nurturing of the Taliban...and remember that the Saudis were intricately responsible way back when the Soviets intervened in Afghanistan,sending in the chosen one,OBL from one of their most prominent families ,the Bin Ladens,partners off Bush & Co., to fight the Soviets.

That strategy ended up in catastrophic blowback as we are seeing in Pak today.No prizes for guessing what will ultimately happen in the MEast when the going gets tough for ISIS if Russia ,Iran and China unite and pull out the stops to defeat the ambitions of the pretender "caliphate".Where will they then turn to to find an oil-rich state to rule? As I said,no prizes for the right guess.

As for the Ukraine,it is inevitably going to be split down the middle.The more the Kiev chickens up the military ante,the more grievous their casualties will be.Sending in the master "burattinaio" to Kiev is akin to flying a red rag to the Bear.watch the fun!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jul 2014 09:27

they have some form of agreement reached last night

Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine reach package of agreements on truce

BERLIN, July 02. /ITAR-TASS/. Talks between the foreign ministers of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine to discuss the situation in Ukraine were held in a constructive manner, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Wednesday.

“I understood that all participants realized what responsibility we all carry on prevention of a greater danger in Ukraine,” Steinmeier said.

An unconditional ceasefire in the south-east of Ukraine is not a goal in itself but a step towards peace talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with his German, French and Ukrainian colleagues.

He said the ministers had agreed a declaration on the resolution of the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine. “Today we managed to agree to a declaration in accordance with the instructions we received from our leaders, and I can say that their instructions were fulfilled,” Lavrov said.

He stressed that the absence of ceasefire in Ukraine was taking a heavy toll of human lives and it would be better to put it in place late than never.

Lavrov expressed hope that the international contact group on Ukraine would be able to meet shortly and welcomed the intention of Germany, France and Ukraine to support the decision of the Standing Committee of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to send observers to the Russian crossing points on the border with Ukraine.

“I hope our calls on the sides on the necessity to hold a meeting of the contact group as soon as possible and agree all other conditions of ceasefire will be heard,” Lavrov said.

Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) should be used at border-crossing points at the Russian-Ukrainian border, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.

“We consider the possibility of using OSCE observers at border checkpoints,” Steinmeier said.

Kiev hopes for effective border control with Russia, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin noted.

Klimkin said the Ukrainian side hopes for “strengthening the effectiveness of border regime control between Russia and Ukraine.”

“We agreed to establish a reciprocal truce, the process will be controlled by the OSCE,” Klimkin said.

“All hostages need to be freed and control should be established on the border. These measures should lead to settlement. All sides should observe these terms,” he said.

Russia, French, German, Ukrainian FMs agree to return to talks of three-party contact group.

“Talks within the framework of a three-party Contact Group should be held by July 5,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said

“The talks have been constructive, all participants of the meeting realize what responsibility we bear,” he said.

The diplomat said “adherence to a truce” in eastern Ukraine was voiced at the talks.

“We welcome Russia’s decision to give Ukrainian border guards access to its checkpoints,” he said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jul 2014 11:02

Y. Kanan wrote:Not only does this create a huge captive market for US natural gas, it will also cause the commodity price of natural gas to rise overall, which means the US companies can now charge their domestic customers far more. At present, US citizens enjoy relatively cheap natural gas (mainly used for power generation and heating homes). Now they'll be paying much more, which means even bigger profits for these natural gas producers like Exxon, Devon, & Chesapeak. So US and European customers lose, but US energy giants enjoy one of the biggest profit windfalls ever.

In Theory yes but in reality US has to built LNG Terminal to export Gas and that would take around 3 years to do so by conservative estimates , Europe would need multiple terminal to at its end

As you mentioned that would increase domestic gas price in US which would have cascading effect not just on price but even competitiveness of US industry.

Last and most important , According to EIA in report last week if Europe goes for LNG no matter where it gets from the price of Gas for Europe will rise to 40-50 % compared to piped Gas from Russia.

Now you can well imagine if Europe economy is barely managing to show some sign of recovery a 40 % hike is a sure sign of less recovery and less competitiveness for Europe Industry.

Europe does not really want to get into this situation neither Russians as its loose loose for both hence attempt to salvage it.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jul 2014 11:10

"Conversations with Great Minds," Thom discusses the current situation in Iraq, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the prospects of a new Cold War with Stephen Cohen of "The Nation," author of the book "Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold

The New Cold War?

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 03 Jul 2014 19:56

Updated Advisory from the Indian Embassy

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 04 Jul 2014 01:56

Ukraine's new defence minister promises Crimea victory

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 04 Jul 2014 03:27

Austin wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:Not only does this create a huge captive market for US natural gas, it will also cause the commodity price of natural gas to rise overall, which means the US companies can now charge their domestic customers far more. At present, US citizens enjoy relatively cheap natural gas (mainly used for power generation and heating homes). Now they'll be paying much more, which means even bigger profits for these natural gas producers like Exxon, Devon, & Chesapeak. So US and European customers lose, but US energy giants enjoy one of the biggest profit windfalls ever.
In Theory yes but in reality US has to built LNG Terminal to export Gas and that would take around 3 years to do so by conservative estimates , Europe would need multiple terminal to at its end

As you mentioned that would increase domestic gas price in US which would have cascading effect not just on price but even competitiveness of US industry.

Last and most important , According to EIA in report last week if Europe goes for LNG no matter where it gets from the price of Gas for Europe will rise to 40-50 % compared to piped Gas from Russia.

Now you can well imagine if Europe economy is barely managing to show some sign of recovery a 40 % hike is a sure sign of less recovery and less competitiveness for Europe Industry.

Europe does not really want to get into this situation neither Russians as its loose loose for both hence attempt to salvage it.

Do you think the powerful interests that engineered this crisis care about European customers? If the US can create a situation where Europe becomes a captive market and has no choice but to import at least some portion of its natural gas from the US, it's a win-win scenario even if it means Europe goes back into recession. Even in a recession, people have to heat their homes and they have to use electricity, so the EU is going to import expensive US LNG whether they like it or not.

Even an EU in recession is a much better market than nothing at all. At present, the US has a huge glut of natural gas (thanks to improved fracking techniques). This glut has caused gas prices to fall dramatically over the last several years, which is great for US consumers but irritating for the execs at Exxon, Chesapeak, Devon who'd like to keep profit margins higher. So they'll be happy to capture the Euro gas market even if that means an EU in recession. Still better than no market at all. This is huge in scale, btw. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars transferred from European citizens to the execs and stockholders of these big US energy giants. Plenty of wars have been engineered for less.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Jul 2014 07:01

Hilarious! These promises of "victory" by the sidekicks of the " Chocolate soldier" are far removed from reality on the ground.Read this report.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 82825.html
Ukraine crisis: President Petro Poroshenko starts to build an ‘army that can fight and win’
Kiev has struggled to supply the armed forces and re-assert control over the industrial east of the country

Ukraine’s president has shaken up the leadership of his struggling military, appointing a new defence minister and top general tasked with stamping out corruption that has left the country’s armed forces faltering.

President Petro Poroshenko denounced the “complete collapse” of the government’s ability to supply the armed forces in a sometimes angry speech in parliament. He won approval for his choice of Valery Heletey as defence minister, replacing Mikhailo Koval. “Today the revival of the army is starting from the scratch, the army which is capable of fighting and winning,” Poroshenko said.

Kiev has struggled to re-assert control over the industrial east, where fighting between government troops and pro-Russia separatists has claimed more than 400 lives since April. Three policemen were shot dead by gunmen wearing combat fatigues in Donetsk today as diplomatic efforts for a lasting ceasefire resumed between Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande.

And look who's calling the shots and is literally running the country!
2nd July 2014, 16:29
Ukraine swamped by US military, intelligence advisers - Russian official

Kiev’s political course is orchestrated by the US military and intelligence circles, Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Yevgeny Lukyanov told the RIA Novosti news agency on Wednesday.

Ukraine’s policy is far from being the country’s own course. It’s been carefully mapped out by Washington’s envoys – intelligence and military officers, he said.

Donetsk People's Republic has evidence that Kiev uses foreign mercenaries

"It’s more than just a matter of US mercenaries. The so-called advisers from Washington have been actively working in Ukraine. I mean intelligence and military specialists."

They devise a "strategic line all of the Ukrainian government’s decisions must strictly abide by", he said.

In Lukyanov’s opinion, the ultimate goal set for the Euromaidan representatives, who currently hold power in Kiev, is NATO’s further expansion eastwards.

US mercenaries from the Greystone firm hired by Kiev to maintain constitutional order in Ukraine have all received special military training, which can’t be said about volunteer fighters in the southeast, who took up arms to defend the homes, the official said.

CIA denies its agents were killed in eastern Ukraine

He slammed the West’s one-sided coverage of the developments in Ukraine.

"Any terrorist or subversive acts committed by foreign mercenaries and the Ukrainian National Guard, the intimidation and physical elimination of dissenters, the destruction of infrastructure facilities, including transportation routes, power and water supply lines, nuclear power plants, coal mines – all that will be blamed on self-defense fighters in the best traditions of information and psychological warfare," Lukyanov said.

400 US commandos help Kiev in its military offensive in east Ukraine - reports

About 400 elite commandos from a notorious US private security firm, Greystone Limited, the latest renaming of the former private CIA army Blackwater/Academi, are involved in a punitive operation mounted by Ukraine’s junta government against federalization supporters in eastern Ukraine, the German Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported on Sunday.

US mercenaries pose threat to Ukrainians being ultra-violent individuals - US military vet

According to the newspaper, Greystone/Academi mercenaries participated in attacks against federalization supporters near Slavyansk. So far, it’s unclear who hired them.

In April 29, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) informed the Angela Merkel government about Academi commandos’ involvement in Kiev’s military operations in eastern Ukraine.

Academi, former Blackwater (renamed in 2009), gained notoriety for the killing of civilians in Iraq, arms smuggling and other crimes, TASS reports.

Read also:

Russia urges US to stop involvement of mercenaries in conflict in Ukraine

White House denies reports about US mercenaries in Ukraine

US pays $8 million a month to have its private armies deployed in Ukraine - British press

US Blackwater mercenary units behind Kiev regime's outburst in Ukraine

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 05 Jul 2014 03:45

Chocolate soldier following Rand's recommendations!

Ukrainian President uses RAND corporation plan in eastern Ukraine
Thursday, July 3, 2014
Confidential document on Ukraine by the RAND Corporation leaked. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko follows the action plan proposed by RAND analysts.

This Memorandum on the advisable course of action automatically means that peace plan confirmed by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko fails.

The document provides three stages of a military operation in eastern Ukraine.

The first stage implies total isolation of the region considering that all local citizens are terrorists or sympathizers. Region should be encircled with troops and sealed off entirely from any flow of goods and persons. Broadcasting services, Internet connection, telephone and mobile communications in the region shall be shut down.

The second stage is named Mop-up. Ground assaults shall be preceded by air strikes against the strategic facilities. The use of non-conventional arms is allowed.

The document also provides for internment camps outside the cleared settlements. People featuring traces of combat engagement shall be tried in court for terrorism.

During the third stage Back to Normal power supplies and communications shall be restored. The borders shall be strengthened to avoid possible provocations. All the refugees should be checked for possible support for separatists in internment camps.

Special focus shall be made on information security. All foreign media shall be blocked there.

Here is a copy (2 images)

http://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2014/ ... 34472.html

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jul 2014 06:24

First victory for the Chocolate soldier.But can his forces hold the fort against a hostile population?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/j ... ]Ukrainian president hails breakthrough as Slavyansk seized from separatists[/b]
Petro Poroshenko says town's recapture has 'incredible symbolic importance', as rebels retreat to regional capital Donetsk

The Ukrainian authorities have trumpeted a turning point in the three-month conflict with separatists in the east after retaking a town at the epicentre of the breakaway movement.

The breakthrough came after the president, Petro Poroshenko, ignored calls from both Russia and the EU to extend a ceasefire that ran out a week ago and decided to go on the attack. Ukrainian forces seized the town of Slavyansk on Saturday, ending a protracted standoff that left dozens dead and reduced parts of the town to rubble.

"It's not a total victory. But the purging of Slavyansk of these bands, made up of people armed to the teeth, has incredible symbolic importance," said Poroshenko in a statement.

On Sunday, Ukrainian authorities said they had taken full control over a number of other towns that had been seized by separatists, including Kramatorsk, Artemovsk and Druzhovka.

But it is the capture of Slavyansk, abandoned by the fighters after some initial clashes, that is the most significant psychological boost for Kiev.

The town of around 100,000 people had become the epicentre of the fighting, surrounded by armed checkpoints. It has undergone food and water shortages in recent weeks as Ukrainian forces have encircled it, and there have been civilian casualties from Ukrainian shelling. Almost half the population have fled, many to refugee camps in Russia, and it Kiev now faces a sizeable task to win back the population.

The separatist fighters abandoned Slavyansk in a hurry, setting fire to documents in the security services building that they had made their headquarters for the past three months and mining one of the rooms before leaving, which was cordoned off and exploded by arriving Ukrainian forces. A number of hostages – mainly pro-Ukrainian journalists and activists – were freed.

On 2 July the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in Berlin and agreed on further negotiations, and over the weekend Russia's foreign ministry again called on both sides to lay down arms and demanded talks between Kiev and the separatists. However, Poroshenko has clearly decided the time has come to go on the attack.

"My order is now in effect – tighten the ring around the terrorists," the president posted on Twitter after Slavyansk was regained. "Continue the operation to liberate Donetsk and Luhansk regions."

There were signs that rebels from Slovyansk were falling back on the regional capital, Donetsk, to continue the resistance. Igor Girkin, the military commander of Slavyansk, told the Russian agency Life News that he had arrived in Donetsk.

"We will continue the combat operations and will try not to make the same mistakes that we made in the past," said Girkin, a Russian also known by his nom de guerre, Igor Strelkov. Thousands turned out to rally behind the rebels in Donetsk on Sunday afternoon.

Girkin has been one of the most intriguing characters of the uprising. A Russian citizen with apparent links to military intelligence, he was previously known for enjoying costumed military re-enactments, and has been an elusive figure since he emerged as the figurehead of the Slavyansk resistance, giving interviews to only a few trusted Russian correspondents and issuing decrees threatening to shoot people for desertion or looting.

The separatist leader Pavel Gubarev read out a message from Girkin to the crowds in Donetsk, in which the commander compared the flight from Slavyansk to the decision by the Russian army to abandon Moscow in 1812. Without that, Girkin said, Russia would not have defeated Napoleon and marched on Paris, and for the same reason the fighters had left Slavyansk to regroup and eventually drive Kiev's armies from the east before marching on the capital itself.

However, with Slavyansk back under Kiev's control, numerous casualties among the separatists and no sign that Russia has any appetite to become more officially involved in the conflict, it appears that the tide may have turned.

Poroshenko faces a decision on whether to attempt a final and decisive victory over the separatist movement by taking on the fighters in Donetsk and Luhansk, major urban conurbations where civilian casualties would appear to be likely.

Already, there is a huge amount of anger in the east over some of the methods used during the "anti-terrorist operation" to rid the east of fighters, much of which has relied on hastily assembled volunteer battalions.

Tanya Lokshina, of Human Rights Watch, called on the Ukrainian authorities to mount a "thorough and impartial investigation" into apparent air strikes on villages near Luhansk that killed a number of civilians including a five-year-old boy, according to witnesses.

"Almost half the population have fled, many to refugee camps in Russia, and it Kiev now faces a sizeable task to win back the population."

Lugansk attacked by Kiev forces civilians killed.
http://rt.com/news/170772-ukraine-resid ... g-lugansk/

Ukraine army assaults Lugansk: Airstrikes on suburbs, shelling of residential areas
Published time: July 06, 2014 14:13

Kiev's artillery attacked the city of Lugansk in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, witnesses and militia of the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Lugansk (LNR) said. Ukrainian forces also attacked the city’s suburbs from the air.

Follow RT's LIVE UPDATES on Kiev's military op in eastern Ukraine

"Ukrainian aviation launched missile strikes at Aleksandrovka, the Lugansk suburb. Ukrainian airplanes are in the skies above Lugansk. A siren is on," the press service of the Donetsk People's Republic wrote on Twitter.

After 8 p.m. Moscow time, the confrontation between the self-defense and Ukrainian forces intensified in the suburbs of Lugansk, RIA Novosti reported.

The agency said that a heavy aircraft could be heard flying above Lugansk, after which a siren went off.

The consequences of an artillery attack on the town of Lugansk. (RIA Novosti / Valeriy Melnikov)

The consequences of an artillery attack on the town of Lugansk. (RIA Novosti / Valeriy Melnikov)

In general, in the evening hours the situation within the city was calm. Earlier in the day Lugansk mayor addressed its citizens and asked them not to leave their homes.

One civilian was reportedly killed in the morning attacks, four more people injured.

Later in the day, following the air strikes, an air raid alert was heard in Lugansk, Itar-Tass news agency reported.

The attack happened the same day Kiev said it would not bombard armed groups in Lugansk and Donetsk from the air. "The tactics of the Ukrainian Army, the National Guard and the Border Service are such that massive bombardment of residential areas is excluded," Andrey Lysenko, spokesman of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council said on Sunday.

The body of a local resident killed in the artillery attack on the town of Lugansk. (RIA Novosti / Valeriy Melnikov)

The body of a local resident killed in the artillery attack on the town of Lugansk. (RIA Novosti / Valeriy Melnikov)

Air strikes and heavy artillery will target only convoys outside cities, he added.

"Several buildings are burning in the city, some people have been injured, there are a lot of ambulances in the streets,” militia representatives told Itar-Tass on Sunday, adding that locals rushed to bomb shelters. Witnesses say the battery factory was hit, which is close to a bus terminal.

Grad rocket launchers may have been used in the attack, the sources from the Lugansk People’s Republic said.

Ukrainian forces confirmed the shelling of the areas near the Lugansk railway and bus stations on Sunday afternoon, but blamed it on the opposing self-defense forces.

"I presume the fire was really intense as it reached the city center from the outskirts. I heard at least five or six explosions," Anton Bukhalo, a journalist from Lugansk, told RT. He added that people were trying to leave the city.

A RIA-Novosti journalist also reported the sound of artillery and gunfire in Lugansk on Sunday.

Ukrainian forces hit a building in the city center and "huge black smoke" was seen in the area, an eyewitness from Lugansk told RT via Skype. He added that a warehouse was burning.

"I can often hear explosions or shooting. I can hear it every five to ten minutes," said the man, who is currently in the eastern part of Lugansk.

Donetsk militia confirm leaving stronghold cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

Several explosions were reportedly heard in the Lugansk airport area, and the movement of military equipment was observed in the town of Schastie, near Lugansk.

The previous night mortar shelling took place near the Lugansk airport, but there are no further reports of casualties so far.

On Saturday, the health minister of the Lugansk People’s Republic said at least 80 people had been treated in Lugansk hospitals after a day of bombing and gunfire from Ukrainian forces. He said 56 of the injured were civilians.

On Sunday in Lugansk city center, people were collecting signatures for an appeal to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Locals want to ask the UN to stop Kiev's aggression towards civilians, they said.

Is this going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back reg. Russian direct intervention? If the Chocolate soldier continues his war whoopin' followin' Rand's advice and thousands upon thousands of refugees pour into Russia as well as large -scale civilian casualties,Russia could easily do a "Bangladesh" and in a molniya (blitzkrieg) send the choco troops packing.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 07 Jul 2014 07:17

^^ pretty interesting that Putin is biding his time, isn't it. Been about 48 hours since this happened and still no counter moves from Putin's end. Wonder what happened during the conversations with Obama that led Putin to call for removing mil action in E Ukraine. Whichever way, if he needs to intervene, he will need to call for Duma again and ask for another request which will surely keep Ukraine in watch out mode and wait and watch? No, it does seem as if Putin is waiting and watching. Reducing moves and then waiting and watching again.

But I do anticipate some serious moves if Poroshenko actually goes ahead and has a pol marriage with EU. I am most interested in watching events in Bulgaria now. That holds a vital piece of the clue?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 07 Jul 2014 07:45

The Poroshenko brigades going hous eto house in fallen town taking people to "filtration camps" from where men/boys are going missing. They are doing it in a planned cleansing action to clear the area out for west Ukrainians to take over the land.

Fact is Duma never formally withdrew the permission to intervene. It gave the permission, and Putin got back to Duma saying he is temporarily holding such intervention off. He doesn't technically speaking - need a new permission. He is waiting for large scale atrocities as well as developments in Iraq. ISIS zone is getting both US/Rus attention right now.

The breakaway republican fighters need anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons as most of them through compulsory military training anyway. It could also be the delay in working out a third party supply not leading directly to Russia's doorstep which means they have tactically retreat to a more defensible area and thereby buy time for 3-7 days.