Eastern Europe/Ukraine

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vijaykarthik
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 08 Aug 2014 16:31

Austin wrote:He wont intervene , if he had to he would have done by now. Its a waiting game and neither side are winning and loosing if the status quo is maintained for long then both sides will be forced to negotiate.

NATO exercise with non-NATO country is nothing unusual they were doing the same with Russia till recently but NATO had mentioned they wont take Ukraine or Georgia into NATO.

I suspect if they every join NATO then Russia will deploy nuclear weapons in Kalingrad region and break out of INF treaty. Which means if NATO brings tactical nukes at Russia door step then Russia will move Tactical Nukes on West door step.

Considering the economic situation of EU and the US and the political will for such a thing is non-existant

Its a rhetoric game , bigger the power more the rhetoric then there are some like Poland and Lithuania that punching far above its weight in decibel


Agreed. Tusk is almost wetting his pants seeing all this unravel. If Putin wanted to move, he ideally would have moved earlier. Besides, conditions just not conducive to move now. Neither mil / economically. No strategic adv and this will just keep going on for a much longer time. The longer it takes, the more difficult it becomes for Ukraine though? Which is also a reason why Uk keeps pressing it from time to time... when there is a fraction of a percentage to trumpet victory. However, if they cant hold on to the territory even if they win Donetsk / Luhansk... which seems like a distinct possibility, to me atleast, what will the point of the current opn be?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby conan » 08 Aug 2014 16:56

The sanctions will hopefully spur the Russians in investing their petro rubles into developing their own industrial/agricultural base. Sanctions only work against smaller/poorer countries and not against better industrialized economies

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby rsingh » 08 Aug 2014 17:35

What about Black Boxes? Any results yet?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 08 Aug 2014 20:28

Not yet but I dont expect any info from black box will make any difference from geo-political pov , The western country led by Obama in less than 24 hours came to conclusion that it was shot by Rebels with BUK supplied by Russians.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 08 Aug 2014 20:53

Putin should have intervened earlier. He missed the bus. That is quite right but that does not necessarily mean he may not intervene in future.
What was probably stopping Putin earlier was a hope that Merkel can drill some sense in the western rhetoric against Russia. If he realises that he is being played by the west - sweet talk on one hand and sanctions on the other, he might react.

Doesnt seem to be happening now though. In spite of the belligerent rhetoric by Ukraine and US, and the persecution of ethnic Russians, Putin has been acting disappointingly tame.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby habal » 08 Aug 2014 20:57

he will attack at onset of winter.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby svinayak » 08 Aug 2014 21:06

RSoami wrote:
Doesnt seem to be happening now though. In spite of the belligerent rhetoric by Ukraine and US, and the persecution of ethnic Russians, Putin has been acting disappointingly tame.

Russians know their backyard.

But the global change which is happening shows that these Ukraine kind of dysfunctions will continue and there will ample opportunities.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Gagan » 08 Aug 2014 22:08

Why does he have to intervene?
The Ukrainians and the Ethinic russians are fighting it out.
NATO probably has advisers and special forces deployed with the Ukrainians and similarly Russian special forces are probably embedded and carrying out missions.
This has the makings of a long drawn out low-medium intensity conflict.
The Ukranian people have already gotten their minds poisoned by the ethinic divisions created by the west - it will be difficult for them to live with the Ethinic Russians hereforward.
I'm sure Putin doesn't want western Ukraine and the russian hating people. Likewise Kiev probably realizes that now there won't ever be durable peace with the people of western ukraine.
Either Ukraine will split along the dnepr officially, or this low intensity conflict will go on, with occasional heating up.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Philip » 08 Aug 2014 22:59

Putin has right from the start wanted only regional autonomy for the east,not a merger with Russia.It will serve as a useful pro-Russian buffer entity.The Crimea however was an absolute,the "crown jewel" of the Ukraine,very Russian in history and of immense strategic value,HQ of the Black Sea fleet which monitors the Meditt. The reported plans to beef up the Black Sea fleet with new subs and surface warships in indicative of the seriousness with which Russia holds its Crimean territory.

Interestingly,RT reports of the US's air strikes in Iraq for "humanitarian" reasons.A perfect precedent to use in the east in support of indiscriminate attacks in the east by UKR forces,with heavy collateral damage. A hospital in the Donetsk area was reportedly hit with casualties.Kiev however simmers on.

http://rt.com/news/178944-kiev-ukraine-blast-injured/
Two people injured in blast in central Kiev
Published time: August 08, 2014

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Aug 2014 02:28

habal wrote:he will attack at onset of winter.


More suited to the Balaclava Helment haute couture d'Vodka-Couriers, I agree. But I don't see how the freedom fighters can hold out that long. The Right Sector must be in a desperate hurry, given the missiles and airstrikes and shelling AND the Sanctions.

Given that the West is against Russia no matter what, I don't see what Vlad would lose by intervening right now.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Shanmukh » 09 Aug 2014 03:54

UlanBatori wrote:
habal wrote:he will attack at onset of winter.


More suited to the Balaclava Helment haute couture d'Vodka-Couriers, I agree. But I don't see how the freedom fighters can hold out that long. The Right Sector must be in a desperate hurry, given the missiles and airstrikes and shelling AND the Sanctions.

Given that the West is against Russia no matter what, I don't see what Vlad would lose by intervening right now.


I don't think Europe has foresworn Russian gas yet. In winter, if they are dependent on Russian gas. Won't European resistance to Russia be correspondingly lower in winter? Also, I would like the Right Sector to spend one winter on the ice cold steppes of Eastern Ukraine. It is considerably different from the wooded Galicia, from which most Right Sector comes. A winter on the steppes will improve their perspective, just as Germany's was improved after Stalingrad.


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby chanakyaa » 09 Aug 2014 05:16

rsingh wrote:What about Black Boxes? Any results yet?

Isn't it amazing that the western media has steered the public opinion such that the incident has been treated as a petty minor accident, saying as if that Dutch who died is more number and Malaysia whose airline was involved, do not matter. What a brainwashing at a enormous magnitude.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby chanakyaa » 09 Aug 2014 05:24

habal wrote:he will attack at onset of winter.

I definitely don't have any insights, but someone is knowingly pushing the events towards the cliff as winter approaches, as if wanting Russians to act. Wonder if the intensity of shenanigans will increase as mercury continues to drop. Ukraine just announced gas transit ban...time to get some popcorn.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby chanakyaa » 09 Aug 2014 06:52

Dissenting opinion in Deutschland

http://goo.gl/mLWn2U

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 09 Aug 2014 08:13

things ofcourse being warmed or raher heated... I think, deliberately. Canada [of all places] planning to send troops? [NATO umbrella?]
Looks like they are supplying arms and ammo to Ukraine troops too.

If that is proved to be true, it will be a significant escalation.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby ldev » 09 Aug 2014 09:34

>>Ukraine just announced gas transit ban...time to get some popcorn.

See, what this will do is raise natural gas prices across the board in Europe, roughly half of Russian supply will not get through if transit is actually halted. Who will benefit from this? Any company that produces natural gas in Ukraine of course. Now, there is one such company called Burisma Holdings,(registered in Cyprus so I wonder who the real owners are) and it just so happens to have on its Board of Directors, junior Veep, as in US Veep's son.(Google it if you want) So while Papa Joe yaks with leader Poroshenko, son Hunter reaps the benefits. And given that Russia was supplying heavily discounted natural gas to Ukraine, the price increase for Ukraine could be 3X-4X what it was last winter. So the Ukrainian people are going to get screwed over by their own leaders. And a very profitable father-son tag team will laugh all the way to the bank. What does one call this, crony capitalism, corruption, hypocrisy.....

And talking of hypocrisy, this one is equally breath taking:

http://rt.com/business/russia-west-energy-gazprom-433/

The US has insisted that Europe needs to urgently cut its dependence on Russian gas, with the US Secretary of State John Kerry saying Moscow shouldn’t use energy exports as a political weapon.

“It really boils down to this: no nation should use energy to stymie a people’s aspirations,” Kerry said in Brussels on Thursday,
the same day Russia’s Gazprom increased the price to Ukraine another $100 per 1,000 cubic metres.


But of course the dollah can be freely used as a political weapon, to deny countries and people access....to their aspirations.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 09 Aug 2014 10:47

Interview with Sergei Glazyev , he is one of Putins inner circle advisor but he is one of those extreme hardline guy , so take his word in that context .......Putin has doves and hardliner in his cabinet.

World War on Russia’s Mind When U.S. Duels Over Ukraine

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vic » 09 Aug 2014 12:18

CIA is going to destroy industrialization of continental Europe and turn it into Gobi Desert.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 09 Aug 2014 12:41

vic wrote:CIA is going to destroy industrialization of continental Europe and turn it into Gobi Desert.


US wants to maintain its global hegemony even it means its allies suffer the stick and few millions are killed and US knows its economy is in ICU.

Ofcourse no one will give up its global hegemony so easily unless its forced to give up , But US is no longer the sole driver of economy and currently China and India will see sustained growth and thats what is worrying the US , with BRICS receiving negitive publicity in US MSM.

Europe is a hopeless case because its economy is barely growing and its banking sector is at the mercy of US .....but due to TINA factor wrt Oil/Gas it has to be dependent on Russia.

All in All the Crises around the world will only make the Economic Situation worse and would speed up the demise of Western nation economy


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 09 Aug 2014 13:15

This sanctions game is going to hurt Europe and Russia bad.
Europe needs to break from US. At least as far as its economic interests are concerned.

And Russia needs to insulate itself.It will remain an enemy state for US forever unless it commits suicide.
It needs to completely reverse the dumb policies of the Yeltsin era. Integrating with the world economy only makes it vulnerable to the whims and fancies of the `international community`.

Less trade with Europe will do it a lot of good if Europe cannot break from US.
But Soviet style policies will suit it better, than to be in an integrated world economy led by the state of US.

Putin probably knows this and that is why its working on the customs union and BRICS etc. Easier said than done though.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 09 Aug 2014 13:24

Blame it on the Russian Oligarch who see themself as more Europeans then europeans are , Most of these Oligarch have spent money in London and else where in Europe.

Now with EU sanctioning them it was a Tight Slap on their Face and on that of leadership of Russia.

Things dont change due to inertia but are rather forced to , Now Putin and Company are forced to look towards Asia and Latin America after receiving a tight slap from Europeans but as they say better late then never.

Russia is a resource nation and for long long as the common alternate fuel is not water , Oil and Gas will be in good demand for decades if not for centuries .....yesterday it was mentioned in Global Arctic Sumit that the Russian Side of Arctic alone has Resource worth of $30 Trillion

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140808/1019299986.html

As reported Emergencies Ministry, the total value of minerals concentrated in the Arctic region of Russia, more than 30 trillion dollars. Gradually, the center of gravity will shift to Russian oil and gas in the Arctic offshore, according to experts of the ministry.



The Deal of Century between Exxon Mobil and Rosneft has been left out of the sanctions by US .....and Poland PM was complaining yesterday that no one in EU wants to talk of Gas sanction .. so when its comes to their own interest and interest of MNC they wont sanction.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 09 Aug 2014 13:37

For any one interested this is a good read on Arctic and its resource , Putin called it the last known undiscovered place for Oil and Gas

http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/07925.pdf

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 09 Aug 2014 15:33

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/20 ... 92499.html

The US government said it would see any bid by Russia to deliver humanitarian aid into Ukraine as an invasion after Russia offered to send a convoy of aid across the border for displaced civilians.


No humanitarian aid for the Russian speaking people. They want them dead. Or pushed into Russia. No less.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Philip » 09 Aug 2014 15:53

Putin has right from the start wanted only regional autonomy for the east,not a merger with Russia.It will serve as a useful pro-Russian buffer entity.The Crimea however was an absolute,the "crown jewel" of the Ukraine,very Russian in history and of immense strategic value,HQ of the Black Sea fleet which monitors the Meditt.,and ensures Russia a significant position of influence in the Middle East as we've seen in the Syrian conflict with Russian naval forces making their presence felt. The reported plans to beef up the Black Sea fleet with new subs and surface warships in indicative of the seriousness with which Russia regards its Black Sea fleet and strategic nature of its Crimean territory.

Interestingly,RT reports of the US's air strikes in Iraq for "humanitarian" reasons.A perfect precedent to use in the east in support of indiscriminate attacks in the east by UKR forces,with heavy collateral damage. A hospital in the Donetsk area was reportedly hit with casualties.Kiev however simmers on.

http://rt.com/news/178944-kiev-ukraine-blast-injured/
Two people injured in blast in central Kiev
Published time: August 08, 2014

Latest news:
Fierce fighting on the UKR border,UKR forces lose about 15 soldiers/border guards killed and have had to retreat from the border in the Lugansk area.Another UKR fighter was shot down on Thursday.The situation is tense in Donetsk as the republicans are trying v. hard to stave off the UKR offensive which is indiscriminately shelling civilian areas.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... e-shelling
Three civilians killed and 10 injured in overnight shelling of Donetsk
Man says his godmother died as artillery barrage hit four apartment buildings in east Ukraine rebel stronghold

At least three civilians have been killed and another 10 wounded in overnight shelling of the main rebel stronghold in eastern Ukraine besieged by government forces, officials said.

Local people said a rebel rocket launcher recently seen in the area may have been the target.

The Donetsk city council said four apartment buildings in the southern part of the city were damaged by artillery. Shocked residents gathered around in the morning; some left flowers on the pavement to commemorate the victims.

"Nina, my godmother, was blown into pieces right in front of the apartment. They were only able to identify her by her dressing gown," said 55-year old Yevgeny Isayev. He pointed at a crater left by a projectile that landed next to the building's entrance.

Another resident, Marina Barsuk, 53, said the shelling came a few days after rebels had positioned a Grad rocket launcher near the apartment building and fired at Ukrainian positions. She and other residents believed the shelling came from the Ukrainian side in retribution.

Such exchanges of artillery and rocket barrage have raised the death toll among civilians as the Ukrainian forces have closed in on the main rebel bastion.

In an ominous signal that fighting is likely to escalate further, a top rebel leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, boasted on Thursday about seizing 18 Grad systems from the Ukrainian military.


Government forces and the rebels use the same Soviet-made Grad – Russian for hail – launchers, which fire unguided rockets at a distance of up to 12 miles. Their accuracy is very poor, making collateral damage from shelling populated areas inevitable.

Ukrainian officials have adamantly denied that government forces were shelling populated areas, but witness testimony has pointed to the contrary.

Explosions were also heard elsewhere in Donetsk overnight, but there was no immediate word about casualties there.

Ukrainian troops routed pro-Russian insurgents from smaller towns in the region this month and have encircled Donetsk, where fighting has crept closer to the city centre. The city council said it was working to keep transport services running and to repair gas networks in apartment buildings. An estimated 300,000 of the city's million residents have fled.

The insurgency in mostly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine flared up in April following Moscow's annexation of Crimea in response to the removal of Ukraine's pro-Russia former president. Ukraine and western countries have accused Moscow of backing the mutiny with weapons and soldiers.

The west also accused Russia of providing the insurgents with surface-to-air missiles that may have been used to shoot down a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet over rebel-held territory on 17 July, killing all 298 people on board. The Russian government has repeatedly denied all those charges.


Austin has a valid point.The Russian elite were seduced into believing that the West would welcome them and their investments,moolah,with open arms,embrace them as true partners in progress,peace,blah,blah.But the insidious expansion of NATO showed the West's true colours. All that the West wanted was Russia's wealth and Russian billions invested in Western/European banks,with lucrative partnerships in Russia's energy sector. However,the asinine sanctions imposed by pressure from O'Bumbler and the Cold War warriors of the West,particularly the Brits-who have never forgotten about the Russian Revolution and elimination of the Czar,relatives of the British royalty,where the King,Kaiser and Czar were cousins.And these three royal buffoons,idiots,cretins and morons,incredibly led the world into WW1,in imbecilic fashion,which saw the downfall of the European monarchies.

It is Putin's destiny to reorient Russia's course in history.he has had a most difficult time over the last decade in first regaining control of Russia from the oligarchs and now strengthening its economy and military prowess. No wonder even at this time of UKR crisis his ratings have never been higher according to western media reports!

US warns Putin not to intervene for "humanitarian" reasons,calling it a would be "invasion",hypocritically forgetting its own massive invasions in recent years.Libya for example where it is fleeing in its underwear holding onto its essentials!

Russians warned not to use humanitarian crisis as 'pretext' to invade Ukraine

US tells President Vladimir Putin further intervention in Ukraine would be 'invasion
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... raine.html

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 10 Aug 2014 02:41

Feel sorry for the ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

Betrayed by everyone and their homes now getting bombed by the Junta, the resilience they have shown is amazing.

Wonder how Putin`s ratings remain so high when he is allowing the murder of ethnic Russians in Ukraine only to get the good behaviour certificate from Merkel.

Disappointing spinelessness from him.


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 10 Aug 2014 19:41

RSoami wrote:Feel sorry for the ethnic Russians in Ukraine.

Betrayed by everyone and their homes now getting bombed by the Junta, the resilience they have shown is amazing.

Wonder how Putin`s ratings remain so high when he is allowing the murder of ethnic Russians in Ukraine only to get the good behaviour certificate from Merkel.

Disappointing spinelessness from him.


The problem is if Russia enters South Ukraine then it would end up with prolonged conflict with guerrilla warfare with losses in Men and Economy .... it would be Russias Iraq and what is the exit strategy for such intervention , Its easy to go in but difficult to exit as Iraq , Afghanistan or our own IPKF as shown and Soviet own intervention in Afghanistan.

The best they can do is to let people in to their side who ever wants to come in and provide humanitarian assistance.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 10 Aug 2014 20:24

lots of confusion amongst the pro-Russians now. A ceasefire requested / asked for earlier, only to be refused later and lots of dissonance and confusion currently. In the meanwhile, Samantha Power thunders!

Difficult times. But a crucial time too in a few ways.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 10 Aug 2014 21:00

The problem is if Russia enters South Ukraine then it would end up with prolonged conflict with guerrilla warfare with losses in Men and Economy


Why will it end up in a prolonged conflict? There are russians living there in south and east Ukraine who would be happy to be ruled by Russians.
The bad part probably is that western Ukraine will become a rump state and join NATO and go in the western camp. Putin probably thinks he can still influence all of Ukraine and get it into the Russian camp. Gas, winters and longstanding brotherhood between Ukrainians and Russians will do that.
Its a risk. all of Ukraine might end up in the western camp with Russians expelled from all positions of importance and reduced to second class citizens just like in Latvia.
With his so called `I am so nice and a liberal` approach, its more likely that he will lose all of Ukraine than get all of it.
Ukraine will beg the west for money for at least another 50 years once this conflict is over. And the west doesnt love anything more than its money. If Ukraine takes western money and tries to go into the Russian camp, it will be game over for Ukraine. So Ukraine is now completely in the western grip. No chance of it escaping anytime soon.

Unless it loses this war, which Putin is helping it in winning.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Shanmukh » 10 Aug 2014 22:31

RSoami wrote: Putin probably thinks he can still influence all of Ukraine and get it into the Russian camp. Gas, winters and longstanding brotherhood between Ukrainians and Russians will do that.


Have you spoken with any Ukrainean lately? The ones from the western Ukraine I mean (people from the old Polish Galicia). They are spitting fire and brimstone, and are making no secret of the fact that they want all the Russians and other ethnic minorities expelled from Ukraine (just read any Ukrainean forum on the net). In fact, the moment the Russians of the east are defeated, they are going to be massacred or expelled. I have not seen such a ferocious anti-minority feeling in a very long time. The Right Sector, i would say, represents a very considerable part of the Ukraineans.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Philip » 10 Aug 2014 23:53

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... ea-concert
Steven Seagal plays at concert for pro-Russia separatists in Ukraine
Actor, musician and Vladimir Putin's friend performs with band at pro-'Donetsk People's Republic' show in Sevastopol, Crimea

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... ea-concert

Hollywood actor and musician Steven Seagal played a weekend concert in the Crimean peninsula, appearing on a stage adorned with the flag of pro-Russia separatists in Ukraine.

Seagal and his blues band played on Saturday at a bikers' show held in the city of Sevastopol, home to Russia's Black Sea fleet. The star has come under fire for supporting Russia's March annexation of the peninsula from Ukraine, a view that saw him bounced from the lineup at an Estonian blues festival this summer.

At the corner of the stage hung the black, blue and red flag of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DNR), declared independent by pro-Russia rebels fighting to break away from Ukraine. Fans waved Russian and DNR flags as Seagal performed.

The US and EU have imposed sanctions on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and for allegedly providing weapons and support to the rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Seagal said he had travelled to Crimea because music unites people, Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported. In a March interview with a Russian newspaper, Seagal was quoted as saying that President Vladimir Putin's desire to protect Russians in Crimea was completely reasonable.


Crimea's largely Russian-speaking residents voted in March to become part of Russia in a hastily organised referendum held as Russian troops patrolled the Black Sea peninsula they had occupied only weeks before.

Seagal said he considers Putin, with whom he has promoted martial arts in Russia, "a friend and I'd like to consider him a brother". Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last year that the Russian president and Seagal have been friends for a long time and meet regularly.

Russian media also reported Seagal put on a Putin T-shirt given to him by the concert's organiser. In television footage broadcast on a channel owned by Russia's defence ministry, Seagal can be heard telling his hosts about his Russian ancestors.

In the March newspaper interview Seagal said he did not rule out eventually seeking Russian citizenship in addition to his US citizenship.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 11 Aug 2014 01:45

@nageshks

You have misunderstood me. I am saying the same thing.

Putin, by doing nothing and hoping that things will get ok in the long run, is being dumb. Ukraine is not coming back. He needs to do exactly what he is being accused by west of doing. Supporting the east with men, material and heavy weapons.

The good thing is that the west cant accuse him of anything other than an invasion anymore. They have already accused him of the rest.

He is acting like Nehru letting Dharmics get massacred in Pakistan to get good behaviour certificate from the whites. Replace Dharmics with ethnic Russians and whites with Merkel.

Amazing stupidity.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby satya » 11 Aug 2014 02:11

Germany can be one of the possible reason behind Putin's delayed response. Germany is re-considering its blindly toe the Anglo-Saxon foreign policy if one goes by the editorial in one of the most prominent German newspaper . Already US is approaching all hands on deck situation wrt Middle East. Iraq's current situation will definitely force at minimum a re-think on US forces scheduled withdrawal from Afghanistan . Not to mention its committment in Africa and Korean peninsula , i am not sure if US has substantial forces left to commit on Ukrainean front. No wonder EU is happy with weekly kitty parties in Brussel .

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Philip » 11 Aug 2014 07:09

Putin is showing that he is actually a regional "peacemaker' no matter what mud the West tries to throw at him.When Russian core interests are at stake with the possibility of danger reaching right upto its borders,he acts decisively.

In the UKR crisis,why is the West,US and EU not brokering a ceasefire allowing KUR troops to bludgeon Donetsk into submission by non-stop shelling? Its hypocrisy is deafening.This bordering on genocide of Russian speaking people in the east.If the situation further deteriorates,pres.Putin will come in for a lot of pressure at home to act again ,decisively,once and for all.With full scale sanctions imposed upon Russia,it needn't bother about repercussions,esp. as the US ,"by popular demand" is reentering the Iraq War!

http://news.msn.com/world/putin-begins- ... n-tensions
Putin begins effort to defuse Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions

AFP report
Russian President Vladimir Putin began talks on Saturday with the leaders of arch-foes Armenia and Azerbaijan after recent clashes that have left 22 soldiers dead and fuelled fears that one of the bloodiest post-Soviet wars is restarting.

Russian President Vladimir Putin began talks on Saturday with the leaders of arch-foes Armenia and Azerbaijan after recent clashes that have left 22 soldiers dead and fuelled fears that one of the bloodiest post-Soviet wars is restarting.

Putin held separate talks at his residence in Russia's southern Black Sea resort town of Sochi with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sarkisian of Armenia. A trilateral meeting was due to be held on Sunday.

"We will no doubt talk about the most painful and chronic problem of resolving the Karabakh," Putin was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency at the start of his meeting with Aliyev.

Nagorny Karabakh, a region mostly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, broke away from Azerbaijan with the help of Armenia in a war that claimed some 30,000 lives between 1991 and 1994.

The conflict has been festering ever since, with international mediators unable to find a political solution and both countries remaining on a war footing.

The brittle status quo along the so-called line of contact between the two sides has been shattered in recent weeks. At least 22 soldiers have been killed in the fiercest clashes since a ceasefire was agreed in 1994.

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said both the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders "expressed concern about a rise in tension connected with the incidents of recent days that have claimed lives..."

The tensions between energy-rich Azerbaijan and Moscow-allied Armenia have escalated as ex-Soviet republics are uneasily watching the Kremlin's historic confrontation with the West over Ukraine, where government forces are battling Russian-backed separatists.

- 'Dragged on too long' -

Each side has blamed the other for the latest surge in violence and there has been plenty of sabre-rattling.

Sarkisian told Putin at the start of his meeting with the Russian leader that he would inform him "about the situation in our region and the reasons for the deliberate escalation of the situation by Azerbaijan" on their joint border.

Aliyev was more diplomatic, saying that the conflict "has dragged on for too long and must be resolved."

But earlier in the week Aliyev vowed he would boost the strength of Azerbaijan's army.

"We will restore our territorial integrity either by peaceful or military means. We are ready for both options."

France and the United States, which together with Russia have tried to mediate a resolution to the Karabakh crisis, have welcomed the Sochi talks and urged an end to the clashes.

Russia's top diplomat recently admitted that finding a breakthrough after two decades of mediation would not be easy.

"A multitude of attempts have been made and every time it seemed that some important milestone for reaching agreement was in sight but something stood in the way," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Officials have sought to lower expectations about the meetings.

"Expectations that after the meeting there will be complete peace or a return to a full ceasefire are misplaced," Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan said on Wednesday.

"Such meetings provide opportunities to start, to continue a dialogue," he said.
"We all know well that dialogue is the only way to resolve questions peacefully."

After a failed attempt earlier this year by French President Francois Hollande to bring together the Armenian and Azeri leaders, Russian analysts see the Sochi talks as reaffirmation of Russia's predominance in the region.

Victor
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Victor » 11 Aug 2014 08:25

nageshks wrote:
RSoami wrote:
Have you spoken with any Ukrainean lately? The ones from the western Ukraine I mean (people from the old Polish Galicia). They are spitting fire and brimstone, and are making no secret of the fact that they want all the Russians and other ethnic minorities expelled from Ukraine (just read any Ukrainean forum on the net). In fact, the moment the Russians of the east are defeated, they are going to be massacred or expelled. I have not seen such a ferocious anti-minority feeling in a very long time. The Right Sector, i would say, represents a very considerable part of the Ukraineans.

True. Very much like the pakis who also ended up a rump ho state with nothing going for it besides blind hatred. No question, the country will split as there is no way in hell these people can live together. There are many non-Russians in South and East Ukraine and many Russians in West Ukraine and there is an unfortunate potential for the kind of bloodshed that happened in 1947 as the populations cross migrate. There are also a lot of ethnic Ukrainians in Russia itself and they will exit quickly.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 11 Aug 2014 11:13

When Russian core interests are at stake with the possibility of danger reaching right upto its borders,he acts decisively.


What core interests? Danger is REACHING Russia`s borders. More than half a million ethnic Russians are refugees in Russia now. Ukraine is going decisively into the western camp. Even if its own populace wants it neutral in future, that wouldnt be possible.

Putin has acted foolishly. Actually not acted at all. He probably thought in his head that getting Crimea was a good deal. But its not good enough. Whichever way you see it.

And that is the problem with countries in which one person becomes very powerful. Noone is criticising him for letting down the ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Noone is blasting him for his hobnobbing with Merkel when Germany is in fact applying those sanctions and making clear whose side it is on.

No Sir, Putin has acted like a dumb Indian politician. And that is some achievement.

Singha
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Singha » 11 Aug 2014 12:57

^ have to agree. Eastern Ukraine has been deftly depopulated so that only regime loyalists and ethnic ukrainians can remain safely.
finding a place to feed and clothe the refugees is a russian headache now, plus what to so with them long term in terms of finding a new homeland as the maidan type thugs will make life hell for them if they return.

putin at minimum needed to occupy part of eastern ukraine to establish safe havens for persecuted ethnic russians and enforce a no-fly zone on top of that. smack the militias and ukraine military with iskanders and smerches if they tried to take it back.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 11 Aug 2014 14:13

Ukraine is a basket case and its not like the Russians are depending on them to invade it ....Ukraine has joined EU and getting EU AA agreement means its now headache of west to support it economically.

Wait for a year or two and the effects of rising price of gas and slow growth due to EU AA will take effect. There is a long list of IMF reforms that they have to go through and West will ensure it does go through and you have a Greek like situation with Gas Subsidies gone for good.

Its better to wait and watch and let the natural force of Economic Turmoil take effect rather then force things out.

As long as Ukraine does not join NATO it would be a military threat to Russia of any kind.

The current situation wont last long and Ukraine will take over but there is good chance there could be insurgency in the east without political solution.


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