Eastern Europe/Ukraine

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 15 Nov 2014 11:46

Poroshenko: Donbas Children Will Sit in Cellars, “Ours” Will Go to School
MOSCOW, November 14 (Sputnik) — Comments from a speech made by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko late last month that Donbas children will “sit in cellars” has gone viral on Russian language social media over the last couple of days, literally adding insult to injury in the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The most offensive of the president’s remarks, made in a speech October 23 at Odessa’s Opera House and captured on video, noted that “we [in Ukraine] will have work they – [in the Donbas] won’t. We will have pensions – they won’t. We will care for our children and pensioners – they won’t. Our children will go to school, to kindergartens – their children will sit in cellars. They don’t know how to organize or do anything. This, ultimately, is how we will win this war.”

Social media commentators noted that Poroshenko’s remarks indicated that he was not planning on stopping the military operation in the country’s east, including the shelling of cities, despite claims to the contrary. “Why else would children be sitting in cellars [serving as bomb shelters] instead of going to school,” one Ukrainian Antifa activist wrote.

The comments mark a clear separation by the President of the Ukrainian people between “Us” and “Them”.

Visiting Odessa on October 23, Poroshenko also brushed off criticism that the city had become home to the Banderites, telling the crowd that “I consider there to be no higher complement for Odessa,” local media quoted him as saying. The insensitive comments came close to the six month anniversary of the Odessa House of Trade Unions building fire, where 48 eight people were brutally murdered by fascist radicals, and dozens more injured.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 15 Nov 2014 11:53

ravi_g wrote:If in those parts only the Russian network can supply gas in any reasonable quantity then by implication all the money is going to the Russians, whichever route it takes. What matters if, the money comes from the right pocket of the consumer or the left one?


For argument sake it matters for 2 reasons.

1 ) It violated the Gas Agreement between Europe and Russia where reverse Gas Flow is not allowed.

2 ) Russia sells Gas to Germany at a lower price because Germany and Russia has jointly developed pipeline etc so there is some more dicounts there , now if say Germany buys more gas and then sells it to some E Europen country which in turn sells to Ukraine at higher cost then , Western Companies involved in transaction are making a profit while Gazprom is making a loss had to sold direct to Ukraine at higher cost.


But these are just short term issue , allowing reverse flow against the agreement has long term implication which is what bothers Russia more , if they dont make noise over it now it might open a can of worms in the future.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby member_20317 » 15 Nov 2014 12:49

But there must be an upper limit on the gas stocks to be taken up by the Germans at the discounted price in the sharing arrangement. And once the gas is sold it would be difficult to avoid market making.

But yes nothing better than throwing a monkey wrench in the works. The west, the west-ukrainians and the Russians, are in this enmity for the long term.

.....................

Austin wrote:Poroshenko: Donbas Children Will Sit in Cellars, “Ours” Will Go to School
MOSCOW, November 14 (Sputnik) — Comments from a speech made by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko late last month that Donbas children will “sit in cellars” has gone viral on Russian language social media over the last couple of days, literally adding insult to injury in the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

The most offensive of the president’s remarks, made in a speech October 23 at Odessa’s Opera House and captured on video, noted that “we [in Ukraine] will have work they – [in the Donbas] won’t. We will have pensions – they won’t. We will care for our children and pensioners – they won’t. Our children will go to school, to kindergartens – their children will sit in cellars. They don’t know how to organize or do anything. This, ultimately, is how we will win this war.”



Reminds me of the familiar 'partition was good' argument in our context.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 15 Nov 2014 13:28

mmh, did anyone check the Erdogan call with Putin?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan ... e-ukraine/

Apparently, Erdogan signed a deal with Turkmenistan before trying to "kind of" checkpoint Putin and guess he got reamed at least verbally.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 15 Nov 2014 13:30

^^ and also wanted to mention

looks like Russia is perhaps trying to move out of EU and move towards China? Surely Asia is where the growth driver is. Will not be surprised if they are slowly decoupling from EU and moving out of the place... at least as a monopoly.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 15 Nov 2014 15:43

Russia is moving toward Asiapac thats quite clear , mostly its due to the fact that in decades to come Asiapac will be growing at faster pace mostly driven by India and China and the energy needs are going to rise , the inertia and mindset in Russian Babus and Oligarch of relying on EU took a beating with Freezing of Assets and Sanction ....Like Deputy PM Rogozin mentioned few days back we should thank the EU for changing Russian mindset of moving towards Asia.

Also a move towards accepting Rouble and Yuan for selling Oil/Gas compared to traditional USD would have a significant impact in years to come .

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 15 Nov 2014 15:45


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby member_20317 » 15 Nov 2014 16:46

Here's what, basis which the catholic dominated Western ukraine claim its national identity:

Image

And in the all the din the Amerikhan lawmakers had already asked for arming of these usurpers.

http://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/menendez-corker-introduce-ukraine-freedom-support-act-of-2014

Washington, D.C. - Chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Ranking Member Bob Corker (R-TN) introduced the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, legislation that imposes broad sanctions on Russia’s defense, energy, and financial sectors, as well as increases military and non-military assistance for Ukraine.

The legislation will be taken up by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday just hours after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko will address a joint meeting of Congress. Last week, Menendez and Corker wrote Speaker Boehner requesting that President Poroshenko receive an invitation to speak before Congress.

“President Putin has upended the international order and a slap on the wrist will not deter future Russian provocations,” Menendez said. “In the face of Russian aggression, Ukraine needs our steadfast and determined support, not an ambiguous response. We are left with no choice but to apply tough sanctions against Russia, coupled with military assistance to Ukraine.”

“Now is the time to increase the pressure on Putin and help strengthen Ukraine’s leverage," said Corker. "At a critical moment for Ukraine's future, this bill if implemented would both demonstrate our solidarity with the Ukrainian people and our commitment that Russia will pay an increasingly heavy price for its invasion of Ukraine."

The legislation requires the president to apply sanctions against:

Rosoboronexport and other Russian defense firms that contribute to instability in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Syria;
Companies worldwide that make significant investments in particular unconventional Russian crude oil energy projects;
Gazprom, if the President determines that Gazprom is withholding significant natural gas supplies from member countries of NATO or further withholds such supplies from countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, or Moldova.
It also imposes restrictions on foreign financial institutions’ dealings with the United States banking system if it is determined the financial institution has engaged in significant sanctionable transactions related to Russia’s defense and energy sectors, or significant transactions on behalf of any Russian individual or entity that has been sanctioned in connection with the crisis in Ukraine.

This legislation authorizes the president to provide military assistance to Ukraine, to include:

Providing defense articles, defense services, and training to the Government of Ukraine for the purpose of countering offensive weapons and reestablishing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including anti-tank and anti-armor weapons; crew weapons and ammunition; counter-artillery radars to identify and target artillery batteries; fire control, range finder, and optical and guidance and control equipment; tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and secure command and communications equipment. It authorizes $350 million in fiscal year 2015 to carry out these activities.
It requires the administration to outline a plan for how the United States, other governments, and international organizations will help Ukraine in protecting and assisting persons internally displaced because of the fighting in Ukraine.

The bill requires the administration to work with Ukraine to develop a short-term emergency energy assistance plan that will help Ukraine address a potential fuel and electricity shortage in 2014-15, and authorizes $50 million for fiscal year 2015 in support of these activities. It also requires the administration to develop medium- and long-term plans to increase energy production and efficiency to improve energy security in Ukraine, and authorizes $50 million over three fiscal years for such activities.

Under this bill, the president would need to submit a strategy to Congress that outlines U.S. efforts to strengthen Ukrainian civil society, support independent media, reduce corruption, and increase election-monitoring capacity :rotfl: Kejriwal :P . This legislation also encourages the president to assist entities in the Ukrainian defense sector to reorient exports away from customers in Russia and to find appropriate alternative markets for their products.

Finally, the bill designates Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia as major non-NATO allies and authorizes $10 million for the next three fiscal years to counter Russian propaganda in the former Soviet Union countries and prioritizes Russian-language broadcasting into Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 15 Nov 2014 17:49

This legislation authorizes the president to provide military assistance to Ukraine

Only military aid.
So why is US unwilling to provide financial aid to Ukraine as a friendly state unless its only desire is to poke Russia. It has given only $1 billion till now while Ukraine may very well need in excess of $40 billion.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 16 Nov 2014 14:14

Interview with Henry Kissinger: 'Do We Achieve World Order Through Chaos or Insight?'

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... druck.html

SPIEGEL: So let's talk about a concrete example: How should the West react to the Russian annexation of Crimea? Do you fear this might mean that borders in the future are no longer incontrovertible?

Kissinger: Crimea is a symptom, not a cause. Furthermore, Crimea is a special case. Ukraine was part of Russia for a long time. You can't accept the principle that any country can just change the borders and take a province of another country. But if the West is honest with itself, it has to admit that there were mistakes on its side. The annexation of Crimea was not a move toward global conquest. It was not Hitler moving into Czechoslovakia.

SPIEGEL: What was it then?

Kissinger:
One has to ask one's self this question: Putin spent tens of billions of dollars on the Winter Olympics in Sochi. The theme of the Olympics was that Russia is a progressive state tied to the West through its culture and, therefore, it presumably wants to be part of it. So it doesn't make any sense that a week after the close of the Olympics, Putin would take Crimea and start a war over Ukraine. So one has to ask one's self why did it happen?

SPIEGEL:
What you're saying is that the West has at least a kind of responsibility for the escalation?

Kissinger: Yes, I am saying that. Europe and America did not understand the impact of these events, starting with the negotiations about Ukraine's economic relations with the European Union and culminating in the demonstrations in Kiev. All these, and their impact, should have been the subject of a dialogue with Russia. This does not mean the Russian response was appropriate.

SPIEGEL: It seems you have a lot of understanding for Putin. But isn't he doing exactly what you are warning of -- creating chaos in eastern Ukraine and threatening sovereignty?

Kissinger: Certainly. But Ukraine has always had a special significance for Russia. It was a mistake not to realize that.

SPIEGEL: Relations between the West and Russia are tenser now than they have been in decades. Should we be concerned about the prospects of a new Cold War?

Kissinger: There clearly is this danger, and we must not ignore it. I think a resumption of the Cold War would be a historic tragedy. If a conflict is avoidable, on a basis reflecting morality and security, one should try to avoid it.

SPIEGEL: But didn't the annexation of Crimea by Russia force the EU and US to react by imposing sanctions?

Kissinger: One, the West could not accept the annexation; some countermeasures were necessary. But nobody in the West has offered a concrete program to restore Crimea. Nobody is willing to fight over eastern Ukraine. That's a fact of life. So one could say we don't have to accept it, and we do not treat Crimea as a Russian territory under international law -- just as we continued to treat the Baltic states as independent throughout Soviet rule.

SPIEGEL:
Would it be better to stop sanctions even without any concessions from the Russians?

Kissinger: No. But I do have a number of problems with the sanctions. When we talk about a global economy and then use sanctions within the global economy, then the temptation will be that big countries thinking of their future will try to protect themselves against potential dangers, and as they do, they will create a mercantilist global economy. And I have a particular problem with this idea of personal sanctions. And I'll tell you why. We publish a list of people who are sanctioned. So then, when the time comes to lift the sanctions, what are we going to say? "The following four people are now free of sanctions, and the other four are not." Why those four? I think one should always, when one starts something, think what one wants to achieve and how it should end. How does it end?

SPIEGEL: Doesn't that also apply to Putin, who has maneuvered himself into a corner? Does he act out of weakness or out of strength?

Kissinger: I think out of strategic weakness masked as tactical strength.

SPIEGEL: What does that mean for any interaction with him?

Kissinger: We have to remember that Russia is an important part of the international system, and therefore useful in solving all sorts of other crises, for example in the agreement on nuclear proliferation with Iran or over Syria. This has to have preference over a tactical escalation in a specific case. On the one hand it is important that Ukraine remain an independent state, and it should have the right to economic and commercial associations of its choice. But I don't think it's a law of nature that every state must have the right to be an ally in the frame work of NATO. You and I know that NATO will never vote unanimously for the entry of Ukraine.

SPIEGEL: But we cannot tell the Ukrainians that they are not free to decide their own future.

Kissinger: Why not?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 16 Nov 2014 14:57

http://www.voanews.com/content/ukraine- ... 21581.html

Under terms of the $4.1 billion loan Russia gave Ukraine more than a year ago, if Kyiv’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60 percent, Moscow can demand early repayment. That could trigger an official default on all of Ukraine’s international bonds. And by winter that threshold is likely to have been broken.


Putin should leave no stone unturned in unhinging the European economy which is supposed to bail out Ukraine. This is economic war, so let both parties suffer. Putin`s ratings remain high in Russia also because people have not forgotten the 90s.
Russians would be willing to accomodate some harships for Ukraine.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 16 Nov 2014 15:08

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... er-ukraine

Justifying his early departure Putin said: “It will take nine hours to fly to Vladivostok and another eight hours to get Moscow. I need four hours sleep before I get back to work on Monday. We have completed our business.”

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 16 Nov 2014 17:36

France might have to pay heavy penalties if it does not deliver the Mistrals. Russian sources say they will make a declaration regarding compensation and penalties by the end of the month.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29060398
The decision to suspend delivery of a Mistral naval assault ship to Russia risks costing France at least 1bn euros (£800m), officials say.



http://www.janes.com/article/43859/russ ... stral-halt
"Moreover, the Russian party has the right to enforce, via court proceedings, imposition of extra fines on DCNS and refunding of its expenses on materials and other costs associated with transportation to and construction in France of two stern components for the LHDs Vladivostok and Sevastopol . Considering those penal sanctions and refunding of expenses, the Russian party may obtain, in case of a positive court ruling, another EUR1.8 billion," he added.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 17 Nov 2014 12:25

Ouch. Just saw the headlines a bit late... Looks like Choc soldier has asked state workers and banks to halt all work and asked that workers be evacuated in a week.

Mmh, wonder what's cooking. Esca-lala-tion?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby durairaaj » 17 Nov 2014 13:19

Except oneindia no major news channel (Indian or Int'l) is covering this news.

Summary:
A Russian TV channel said that the Malaysian airlines flight MH17 was shot by Ukraine fighter jet and it even showed some photographs.

Read more

The link also has a Reuters video.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 18 Nov 2014 01:23

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 ... e-war.html
“In the next three days there will either be a renegotiation of the Minsk ceasefire or a new assault,” said volunteer battalion commander and lawmaker Semen Semenchenko.


http://www.theage.com.au/world/russian- ... 1o8x1.html
Russia seems to be finally arming the rebels. So `not a step back` is back in Russia. After all it has lost more land to the western ubermensch in peace time than when fighting.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-17/u ... ys/5895570
Petro Poroshenko says country is 'ready for total war' with Russia. :roll: . Good.
Ukraine will degrade and destroy Russia. Other countries should step aside.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Shreeman » 18 Nov 2014 08:20

Todin I learned that Cyprus has been kicked out of europe because you cant occupy a part of a democratic country on the continent of europe. Also, a rock has gone missing in spain.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 18 Nov 2014 10:01

Italians are pretty upset with Eurozone. A lot of countries, particularly in the south are unhappy and not doing well economically. Some might need an aid package sooner than later.
Putin should say that Russia is considering renegotiating the gas prices in view of European sanctions. This will give a nice jump to share markets in Europe. :D

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Deans » 18 Nov 2014 12:24

Graphic showing tank losses by month. Gives a good idea of the beating Ukrainian forces got.
The big dark green column is Ukrainian losses, the lt green rebel and the top bar is unknown (usually captured vehicles that were
destroyed).

https://pp.vk.me/c624222/v624222350/aeb0/__4wxtDc2MI.jpg

For e.g. in Sept, Ukies lost 131 AFV's, rebels lost 9 and another 9 were unknown.

Ukrainians seem to be planning a fresh offensive. This is the latest situation map - in English.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/dragon_first_1/72271520/51260/51260_original.jpg

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 18 Nov 2014 14:21

^^ v interesting maps. Thank you.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby member_20317 » 18 Nov 2014 16:17

On going courtship dance of 2014.

[url]wpmedia.news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/russia-graphic.jpg?w=620&h=1200[/url]

Full analysis:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/11/16/vladimir-putins-plan-he-took-crimea-hes-taunting-nato-what-will-russias-president-do-next/

Image

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 18 Nov 2014 17:31

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/066cd56a ... abdc0.html

The country has signed up for a $17bn International Monetary Fund programme but the assumptions underpinning the rescue have already proven over-optimistic – and will almost certainly need a sizeable topping up.


If Ukraine is forced to restructure – as some analysts and investors think is now inevitable, absent massive western aid – then it will pain no one more than Franklin Templeton, the US fund management house that owns almost a tenth of the entire bond market, according to Bloomberg data.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Austin » 18 Nov 2014 23:05

US wishes to subdue Russia, but no one will ever manage this — Putin

Vladimir Putin said the United States is not trying to humiliate Russia, but to make it succumb to its influence
MOSCOW, November 18. /TASS/. The United States wishes to make Russia succumb to its influence, but no one has ever managed to achieve this or ever will, President Vladimir Putin told the forum of the All-Russia People’s Front on Tuesday. He was speaking in reply to a remark by film director Yuri Kara, who said that the United States was trying to humiliate Russia.

“This is not so. The United States is not trying to humiliate us, it wants to subdue us, to settle its own problems at our expense. To make us succumb to its influence,” Putin said.

“No one has ever managed to achieve this aim in relations with Russia or ever will,” he added to draw applause from the audience.


In the meantime, Putin said, the United States has been successful in spreading its influence to its allies or “as some propagandists would say, its satellite states.”

As a result, Putin said with certainty, many of the US allies have been forced to neglect their own interests “to try to defend somebody else’s - for obscure reasons and with very hazy prospects.”

“I sometimes feel utter confusion,” Putin said. “Protection of the so-called pan-European, Western influence to the detriment of one’s own national interests as a rule is fraught with several problems.” Firstly, Putin said, there are no criteria of these common interests. Secondly, he explained, behind one is bound to find the geopolitical interests of one country or a group of countries which do not necessarily agree with the interests of their own peoples.

Putin believes that nobody in the world, including the masses of the US population would like to see soaring world tensions.

Putin also said most of Russians like the American people and America but disapprove of the policy of its authorities.

“I think that our people rather like than dislike America and the American people. But most likely, the majority of our citizens have negative attitude towards the policy of the /US/ ruling class,” he said at a question and answer session.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Y. Kanan » 19 Nov 2014 00:38

Austin wrote:If you follow Russia strategy you would realise it prefers Frozen Conflict


You might be making the common Indian mistake of ascribing grand strategy to what would otherwise appear to be indecision and incompetence. We do this all the time with our own politicians; why not Putin as well?

I suspect the reality is Putin kicking himself and feeling a lot of regret for not taking over the whole Donbass region back in April. Or at least the parts of it that are overwhelmingly Russian. Because as it turns out, Russia has suffered even more sanctions and isolation with it's half-hearted "frozen conflict" policy than it would have suffered by simply rolling the Red Army into that region back when Kiev could offer no resistance. Most importantly, Putin and Russia would have been spared the international humiliation of shooting down a civilian airliner with 298 people of board. Remember Europe wasn't even going along with US-proposed sanctions until the airliner incident. Also consider the military cost. Hundreds (thousands?) of Russian troops, er, "volunteers" wouldn't have died, and think about how much money Russia must have already spent on munitions, medical supplies, survivor benefits, etc. Those artillery & MRLS rounds aren't cheap and the Russian "volunteers" have expended vast quantities of them. Not to mention scores of Russian tanks and armored vehicles, trucks, etc that have been destroyed and must eventually be replaced.

War isn't cheap, and that's exactly what the Russians have got in Ukraine, whether you want to call it a "frozen conflict" or not.

The simple fact of the matter is this "frozen conflict" has brought Russia far heavier consequences than a bloodless (or nearly bloodless) annexation of Donbass would have. If I were Putin I wouldn't be feeling very cocky about anything right now.

But in any case, engaging in "what if's" is pointless, and besides, from the Indian POV we can't really complain. Cold War 2.0 is perfectly good for us.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 19 Nov 2014 06:11

^^ Crimea at least had a moral justification. So, if Russia took it up, everyone, internationally, doesn't recognize it but at least there is no song and dance.

However, if Russia did annex Donbass etc in the first iteration, the UN might have been activated. Agreed Russia is a permanent member with veto... but community shaming would have been tried. Besides, there will have been huge protests and even Belarus and Kazakhstan would have been alarmed. They already are, as it is. Its just not easy to go and annex another country's territory just like that. Not even for Putin.

Its debatable whether Putin followed the best path. But anything more than Crimea would have meant he was trying to bite even more than what he can chew.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Philip » 19 Nov 2014 06:52

To be fair Putin offered a solution which still has validity,that of the East remaining within UKR but with increased freedom in economic ,linguistic and cultural matters.The East would be closer economically to Russia while the West to the EU.The UKR would then have the best of both eco systems and a guarantee of cheap energy from Russia with no NATO expansion.However,it is the US and sidekick Britain primarily that is forcing a confrontation with Russia ,unable to rid themselves of the Cold War mentality.

It is the rejection of that realistic solution that will inevitably see the UKR spit into two halves.Russia will incrementally and more openly support the east/Donetsk Republic as sanctions have already been enforced and will complicate matters for the USA and West in global hotpots and crises involving Syria,Iran ,etc.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Victor » 19 Nov 2014 07:01

Most likely outcome ultimately is Ukraine will lose it's present Eastern part and be cut off from the Black Sea. The Eastern part will likely become independent in the short term (to avoid the impression, at least legally, of a Russian takeover) and join Russia a decade or so from now. Russia will call the shots from Odessa in the South to Kharkiv in the North and this area will be de facto Russian territory. A lot of the most important and promising factories are in the pro-Russian East, including Antonov, which are staffed essentially by Russian-origin folks. This will be a great outcome for almost all parties involved--Russia, Europe even Ukraine which is a "nothing" country by itself but will benefit from a friendly and supportive Russia next door. EU is going to be increasingly hobbled by economically frail Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and now Ukraine. How long can the Germans, French and UK keep applying costly band-aid to these declining countries. The big loser will be NATO and it doesn't look like any other outcome is possible.

This is a telling map.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 19 Nov 2014 07:09

^^ a bit like S Ossetia, Abkhazia. bits of other countries which have disputed lands etc

But the choc soldier is also acting like an idiot. As I mentioned earlier, he gave about a wk for all state services to stop functioning and such. Such idiocy. Has he actually given up on the lands? It does look like he doesn't want damage on his hands...

and on that topic, the maps linked by Deans seems perfect in terms of timing. Perhaps he is looking at a quick assault in a wk or so. But then, the Russian / pro-rebel side will be well prepared too?

Critical few days

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Deans » 19 Nov 2014 13:52

The maps I posted are discussed on a daily basis in Russia - since most Russian men have served in the Military, so the rebel side
not only expects an attack but seems to have a good idea of the where and how. Ukrainian supplies have to go through areas which are in the rebel provinces (the western part of the rebel districts occupied by Ukraine) so the rebels have good intel on
Ukrainian forces and their movements.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians seem to be victims of their own propaganda. They (and NATO) are looking for large Russian armored concentrations massing on the Ukrainian border (which is not happening) rather than what the rebels are upto.

Chocolate seems to have the strategic brilliance our neighbor displayed in 1999. Winter has just started and of the 3 pipelines
supplying Russian gas to Ukraine, 1 runs through rebel held territory and another through Kharkov (Russian majority) which
can be easily sabotaged. (The 3rd runs south from Belarus). All Ukrainian coal is already is rebel hands. Under the recent Gas agreement, Chocolate has been forced to pay up his outstanding gas bills. If the conflict resumes, Ukraine loses both its Gas and coal, in winter.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 19 Nov 2014 14:14

There was also discussion of choc wondering if he should cut off supply of water and other essentials to the Eastern Ukraine. If that happens, perhaps all hell breaks loose and all bets are off?

I agree with your assessment that NATO is expecting Russia to fall hook line and sinker and get caught in the booby trap... except that they aren't falling yet.

I think in the end game stage, NATO might prefer seeing Russia attempt to / *invade* Ukraine so they can cry wolf. Should be educative to see how Russia responds to the allied pressures.

Off topic:
I remember someone telling - cant remember where I saw it... that the fighting didn't stop... just that the west media stopped reporting. When I see the maps and the kind of deaths and stuff that has happened in the 'ceasefire' period, I nod my head and think how true.

Media influences us both ways and we do get influenced by it. Important to realize that. One of the problems with the West media and the way they portray it. Not everything that's mentioned is true. [Ditto with the Russian / Pak / Indian etc etc].

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 19 Nov 2014 14:53

^^
The fighting did stop. Around August the Ukrainian soldiers were running hither tither and if the Russians wanted they could have attacked Mariupol which they didnt. They just drove away the Ukbapzis and taught the far right volunteer battalions a lesson.Then agreed for the ceasefire.
The ceasefire stated that Ukrainian forces would move away from the civilian areas. Since the Donetsk Airport was not vacated by the Ukbapzis so the fighting there.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 19 Nov 2014 15:04

Dont agreee that Putin has made a mistake. Perhaps the mistake that he did make was that he didnt take over Kharkiv, Mariupol and Odessa in August. And you cant be sure that the fire-eaters in Washington wouldnt have started arming Ukbapzis then.

Putin currently has Crimea and the industrial regions of the east. He also has the gas pipeline and a ruined Ukrainian economy. So there is no need for him to feed the west Ukrainians as of now. $ 17 + 7 + many more billions will have to be poured by the west in Ukraine if they want any credibility and support in Ukraine. A major chunk of this money will go to Russia as gas payments.

What if Putin had taken over all of Ukraine.
The west would have almost certainly started arming the Ukbapzis to wage insurgency against the Russians like in Afghanistan.
All sanctions would have been in place against Russia.
No gas payments from Ukraine. In fact Russia would have had to feed the Ukrainians after the Oligarchs had run to London with all wealth. As of now, its more of the western economic warfare turned on its head where the west has to spend at least 50 billion dollars just to keep their clowns Yatseneuk and Poroshenko in power, a share of which goes to Russia.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Philip » 19 Nov 2014 15:50

Absolutely! The western cretins wanted these scumbags to rule the UKR,let them pay for their keep. And if they don'y pay for their huge energy bills in the billions,Russia can simply turn the taps off to the Euro-peons,or better still raise the price of their energy supplies by adding the UKR bill to the tab!

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby member_20317 » 19 Nov 2014 16:24

Abkhazia and South Ossetia show how the Russians want to deal with things.

Ukraine was Russian territory and will revert. A slight dip in 90s cannot change centuries worth of history. Uropains have tried the stunt over Crimea, with much the same pack of fuddus, for long and yet today it is in Russian hands.

Russia has all the time in the world. It is the West that has to rush else Dorothy, Kansas is going bye bye.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby habal » 19 Nov 2014 16:32

Y. Kanan wrote:I suspect the reality is Putin kicking himself and feeling a lot of regret for not taking over the whole Donbass region back in April.


well, for one I don't think so. If Putin wanted to, he would have gone for it and .. got it.

we do not have info that Putin has on which he makes his decisions. As not all info is public, and there are lots of behind the scenes play and 'what-if' scenarios that he may have to prepare for.

secondly the present day Russia, in my opinion, seems to be a very publicity conscious nation. They abhor negative publicity and that also limits their pro-activeness. It always wants to be seen that it is doing what is right, sometimes I get a feeling that it seems to be catering to big Putin/Russia fan base in the west or elsewhere.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby svenkat » 19 Nov 2014 18:09

I think Russia is constrained by two things.
1)Russian is a christian nation,albeit an eastern orthodox nation.They have problems with western civilisation but still it is not a confucian or islamic or hindu nation.They have no intention of breaking off with West.Modern Russian identity has a lot to do with Orthodox christianity.Russia wants decent relations with west but not servility.
2)They want to escalate in a calibrated way with Ukraine.Russia and Ukraine share strong civilisational ties and Russia cannot act in an open abrasive way.Theres no reason to discount what Russians are saying.Ukraines west might want open confrontation but Russia doesnt want the same.They would like to delay the inevitable or get what they want by less militaristic means.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby vijaykarthik » 19 Nov 2014 18:38

intelligence inputs are subject to a lot of dangers, as it is. Its nothing like Hollywood where any person has control on all levers and just at the push of a button, lo and behold, magic happens. Sometimes, I do get alarmed at what people think Putin is capable of.

Its interesting that he has developed super human powers in the eyes of people... but he has critical limitations... and as many people here have mentioned correctly, he wants a frozen conflict and keep NATO away. Crimea was easy and was for grabs and he picked it. Anything more and he would have got into serious trouble.

There is also the alternate thought that he might be at his most vulnerable moment with so many uncertain indicators and contra-indicators. Remains to be seen how strong that argument is.

Bottomline: Putin did the exact minimum he could do to ensure that there is no blowback and he has been smart. Anything more will have been detrimental to him and perhaps Russian interests too. At least in near term.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby srin » 19 Nov 2014 20:33

Russia tried the logical thing: took crimea because of the strategic importance, but for eastern UKR, tried to have the "frozen conflict" - so UKR is divided politically and weakened strategically, and can't become member of NATO (disqualified due to the conflict).

It is bad for Russia to occupy Eastern UKR because then the Western UKR can become part of NATO and right on Russian borders. This isn't what Putin wants, but he is being driven to that.

For the West, this is a strategic mistake - they are driving Russia towards China by default. They should have washed their hands off the Ukraine misadventure after Crimea, and retained Russia as a swing state against China.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby Tuvaluan » 19 Nov 2014 20:46

srin:"It is bad for Russia to occupy Eastern UKR because then the Western UKR can become part of NATO and right on Russian borders. This isn't what Putin wants, but he is being driven to that. "

EU is not going to be giving aid or oil to west UKR, so west UKR is basically going to be war zone for NATO mischief with east UKR as the buffer. The "West"/US have always behaved like a bunch of inebriated t**ds drunk with power. The US wants to break Russia up with the help of the islamist crowd that they are raising and funding via Qatar these days . Russia is already starting to trade oil using the yuan rather than the dollar, and if more countries start to follow suit, that would be far more trouble for the US than UKR is for russia.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Postby RSoami » 19 Nov 2014 21:16

There is nothing such as `disqualified to be NATO member`. IMHO thats not how things work. NATO is US military in disguise with token representation by the Peons. One can easily change the language or in spite of it accomodate Ukraine in the western alliance.

Here is an example. In San Fransisco Japan agreed to waive its claim to all of the Kurile Islands. After Japan got into a defence alliance with US, the US kept the issue hot by simply declaring that the small four islands of the southern Kuril Islands chain are not part of Kuril Islands. :eek: . And that is the dispute between Russia and Japan today.

One of the reasons Putin must have decided not to take Ukraine might be that once Russian troops enter Ukraine, so might American troops. And Russia certainly is not strong enough today to do tit for tat for every American move. European participation in NATO is also an insurance for Russia that the fire-eaters in US will not unilaterally abrogate all understandings that maintain peace in eastern Europe.

And that could be another reason why Putin is not pushing far in Ukraine despite severe provocations by stooges Poroshenko and Yatseneuk. He does not want to make any move that might drive all of Europe into Obama`s lap. As of now only Merkel, Poles and the Baltics are acting foolish.


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