Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 22 Mar 2014 23:30

For MH370 to have ended up in Malaysian Borneo or Malaysian peninsula:

0. I guess it remains consistent with the known INMARSAT pings (i.e., eyeballing, I think Malaysia is within one hour range of the positions from the last INMARSAT ping.
1. The Pacific INMARSAT satellite should have failed to pick up/record pings from MH370.
2. Indonesian radar should not have detected the aircraft (which, IMO, is true for the south Indian Ocean as well).
3. Malaysians should be lying (which is the substance of UB's CT).

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Mar 2014 23:45

Yes, Google maps level resolution (enough to see if a houri is sunning next to the swimming pool in suburban Ulan Bator, BTW) would have been good, so I seriously question the rationale behind the crummy quality of photos released so far.

Modification to UBCNewst CT#1 (Call it UBCT#1.3)

I just realized the answer to "can't they go check that oil slick again". What happens to a modern jetliner, if someone puts the wrong fuel into it? Say a fuel that is actually LIGHTER than the standard brand, but maybe highly impure etc. Will you kill the fuel pump? The APU? Make the engines quit? The reason I say lighter is that even a modern jetliner must have default gravity-fed tanks, so that the fuel first used (for taxi and takeoff) will be the fuel remaining in the tank before the refill.

Suppose a completely wrong kind of fuel was filled? The oil slick sample would have come up ridiculous as in "Of COURSE that's not jet fuel, and CERTAINLY NOT the kind we use at MAS!! Humpphh!"

Maybe that was the scam. Once that remaining fuel was used up, and the airplane reached altitude, the engines started coughing and sputtering and went out. I don't know why that would knock out communications, though. But it would explain the slick being of a different kind of oil.

Slick calculation for those who haven't attended madarssas:
9 miles (14.4km) long, 80 to 200 meters wide (one wing span+ spreading), 10 mm thick (maybe more). Assume rectangle (actually it seemed to be curved, as would happen if left behind by a U-turning airplane). The length makes sense: about 1 to 1.5 minutes flying time at the sort of speeds probable at that condition. Emergency fuel dump (someone may have stats on how long that takes and how they do it).

Volume ~ 14400 x 0.2 x 0.01 m^3 = 2880 = 28.8m^3. Specific gravity ~ 0.75 or density of 750 kg/m^3. = 21600 kg. OK, too little.

Max fuel for 777-200 is 117,400 litres per Boeing = 117.4m^3. But this one was only fueled up for 8 hrs vs. about 14 hours for a 777 max range. So less than half the fuel capacity, meaning around 50 to 55m^3. You use up about 0.1 times TOW (or more) just taking off and climbing to altitude. He would have left enough fuel to get back and try to land.

So I make that slick 400m wide and I get pretty close. Meaning, the slick was the right size to be a fuel dump from this plane.

And it explains why the fire was not big enough to see. Now why did the New Zealander see a "plane on fire"? Did the plane actually catch fire and then the pilot dumped the fuel? In that case there was an additional event that knocked out communications.

But the fuel lab test result (and any confirming repetition using the slick) can be explained if we know exactly what sort of fuel they found, and if someone traces exactly what fuel in fact went into Flight 370. Is there a light fuel MUCH cheaper than jet fuel? Maybe the flame goes out at altitude if you use it in a jet engine?

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 22 Mar 2014 23:57

Wrong aviation fuel at an international airport - not possible, strike this one. I know this as personal knowledge.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 22 Mar 2014 23:59

South Indian Ocean Area searched (PDF file)
http://asset.amsa.gov.au.s3.amazonaws.c ... andout.pdf

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 23 Mar 2014 00:23

UB on the oil slick: Too many ships with very poor waste oil disposal equipment still ply ocean routes. While records that Waste oil incinerators and oily water discharge may be kept for authority checks, many ships discharge same bypassing the equipment particularly when away from coasts. Oil slicks with weather patterns also get disbursed and its practically difficult to obtain samples from far away from coast. But most oil slicks at sea are inevitably the result of illegal ship emissions.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Mar 2014 00:34

Rajiv Lather wrote:Wrong aviation fuel at an international airport - not possible, strike this one. I know this as personal knowledge.

Accident happened after wrong refilling from Bangalore HAL airport after the aircraft was fuelled with the wrong fuel.

All on board died after the private plane crashed some minutes after takeoff.

But I do agree that it should not be possible at an international airport with 777 airliner from airline company

Too many people involved in the process.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Mar 2014 00:57

Wrong aviation fuel at an international airport - not possible, strike this one. I know this as personal knowledge.

Ah! brother, in corruption the word "impossible" is not in the dictionary, in a country where the Transportation Mantri = Raksha Mantri = coujin of Pradhan Mantri and opposition leader is buggered in jail. The fact that is "not possible!" is what makes it unmentionable.

As for the private plane that crashed after filling wrong fuel, that was an IC engine. That can be seriously messed up if you put in wrong fuel, I know. Question is what happens to a jet engine

What exactly are the "check and balances"? (Malaysian regime's checks and balances are probably all in Maldive Island banks). Do they taste the fuel that goes into each airplane? Use the fuel gauge to check color, esp. on midnight? Fuel truck marked MAS and "Phor MH370 onlee" pulls up, someone signs a sheet on a clipboard (or iPAD), they fill it.

Re: oil slick left by ship: the point is that this is a very substantial amount of oil spilled. Cost a LOT of money! 28,000 is not peanuts.

And a long, narrow spill, not a point spill. It takes about 1/2 to 1 hour for a ship to travel 9 miles, hain? The Vietnamese thought they had found the wreck, until someone told them it was the wrong type of fuel. But have they announced WHAT it was?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Mar 2014 01:07

UlanBatori wrote:
Wrong aviation fuel at an international airport - not possible, strike this one. I know this as personal knowledge.
Ah! brother, in corruption the word "impossible" is not in the dictionary, in a country where the Transportation Mantri = Raksha Mantri = coujin of Pradhan Mantri and opposition leader is buggered in jail. The fact that is "not possible!" is what makes it unmentionable.

As for the private plane that crashed after filling wrong fuel, that was an IC engine. That can be seriously messed up if you put in wrong fuel, I know. Question is what happens to a jet engine

What exactly are the "check and balances"? (Malaysian regime's checks and balances are probably all in Maldive Island banks). Do they taste the fuel that goes into each airplane? Use the fuel gauge to check color, esp. on midnight? Fuel truck marked MAS and "Phor MH370 onlee" pulls up, someone signs a sheet on a clipboard (or iPAD), they fill it.

Re: oil slick left by ship: the point is that this is a very substantial amount of oil spilled. Cost a LOT of money! 28,000 is not peanuts.

And a long, narrow spill, not a point spill. It takes about 1/2 to 1 hour for a ship to travel 9 miles, hain? The Vietnamese thought they had found the wreck, until someone told them it was the wrong type of fuel. But have they announced WHAT it was?

There are jet engines that are designed to also burn alternate fuels.

But you can't just tank up and go, adjustments have to be made on the engine before any alternate fuel is used.

There would be a performance penalty as well as a time limit to operating with another type of fuel.

Mulifuel options more common on military engines.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 23 Mar 2014 01:19

Why cant the Malaysian and Chinese governments answer these 3 simple questions

1. Are the passengers dead or alive ?
2. Did the plane land or crash ?
3. Was it a deliberate act or an accident ?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Mar 2014 02:52

According to this, the density of Jet A can vary between 775 and 840 kg/m^3!!!

But JetA freezing point has to be below -40C.

Note that E-85 gasoline (with 85% ethanol) has a density of 770 kg/m^3.
I don't know about freezing point.
OK, so engine may not have quit due to fuel - there is still the issue of why communications failed. But the fuel may still have been something other than what MAS CLAIMED it was.

Have they announced what was found in the oil slick? Given "Transparent Abdul"'s performance to-date, I doubt it.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 23 Mar 2014 05:48

Rajiv Lather wrote:Why cant the Malaysian and Chinese governments answer these 3 simple questions

1. Are the passengers dead or alive ?
2. Did the plane land or crash ?
3. Was it a deliberate act or an accident ?

They are clearly saying

1. passengers may be dead or alive
2. plane may have landed or crashed
3. It could be deliberate incident or an accident

Clearly the are not looking for the above they are looking for clues from Far and Near

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Mar 2014 07:10

Claim is that they have found "several small objects close together, plus a wooden pallet". But no word on what saw them, why they haven't been seen again, why no one has reached the site. Picture shows helicopter looking out on a cute warship. I bet the warship was looking at the helicopter too. Fine use of time.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 23 Mar 2014 07:14

Nijalingappa wrote:
Rajiv Lather wrote:Why cant the Malaysian and Chinese governments answer these 3 simple questions

1. Are the passengers dead or alive ?
2. Did the plane land or crash ?
3. Was it a deliberate act or an accident ?
They are clearly saying

1. passengers may be dead or alive
2. plane may have landed or crashed
3. It could be deliberate incident or an accident

Clearly the are not looking for the above they are looking for clues from Far and Near

Bliss to rename the plane to Shrodinger's plane.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 23 Mar 2014 07:18

The funny thing is Creamea is no longer news. No one knows who won or losst!!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Mar 2014 07:25

Nijalingappa wrote:
They are clearly saying

1. passengers may be dead or alive
2. plane may have landed or crashed
3. It could be deliberate incident or an accident

Clearly the are not looking for the above they are looking for clues from Far and Near

It may be located north or south.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Mar 2014 07:27

Russia has a "new" submarine to contribute to the search, since the search is shifting underwater.

member_28502 · Post by **member_28502** » 23 Mar 2014 08:35

UlanBatori wrote:Russia has a "new" submarine to contribute to the search, since the search is shifting underwater.

But ms Amanpoor is saying Russia is already underwater and nose diving as sanctions have bitten

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 23 Mar 2014 09:43

Nijalingappa ji: why do I have this feeling of deja vu? Welcome back (I think my guess would prove to be 400% correct).

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 23 Mar 2014 11:08

Message to all Americans, please stop watching MH370 reports. This has caused a ridiculous ratings war. The media is using this tragedy to exploit the victims and sell commercials. The diversion from the real issues facing this nation is sickening.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Mar 2014 11:22

Ms.Ham-and-Pork usually gets the bull by the horns and the cow by the "udder" end!

The Yanqui jealousy and envy of Russia comes from a deep rooted inferiority complex.Cullturally, the US and Russia are different planets.Tchaikovsky, Stravinsky, Rachmaninov-the great Russian authors and poets et al , the Bolshoi, Kirov, the Hermitage are the envy of the new Yanqui nation barely a few centuries old. Russian emigres, many Jewish, have made a massive contribution to American achievement, but the WASPs in America want to call the shots, figuratively and metaphorically.They can't bear it when the sharp end of thr spear is thrust ip their nether end.Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.....but like SM addicts , keep asking for more!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2014 11:25

Are India, Japan , soko planes going to fly from perth?
we have sent one p8 and one c130.
the second p8 is looking at Andaman sea.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 23 Mar 2014 11:39

I think we've sent P8's to find out if we've been sold lemons. If US P8's find something and Indian P8's don't find anything we'll have a doodh ka doodh, paani ka paani moment. Also will help to know what sensors Khan can turn off in the aircraft at wartime.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 23 Mar 2014 12:23

Rajiv Lather wrote:The final 54 minutes of communication from MH370

01:01:19 ATC: MH370

01:07:55 MH370: MH370 remaining in flight altitude 350

01:08:00 ATC: MH370

01:19:24 ATC: MH370, please contact Hu Chi Minh City 120.9, good night

01:19:29 MH370: All right, good night

ATC calls out at 01:01:19 and doesnt get reply for 6 mins, again for 1 1/2 min no reply , ATC calls back asking to contact Hu Chi Minh city

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 23 Mar 2014 12:33

So the Chinese find a 24 m object, that many experts believe to be a part of the wing; but...

...most of the planes are now searching for a pallet and not what the Chinese photographed.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 23 Mar 2014 13:53

Rajiv Lather wrote:Question: Did the Vietnamese claim how much they had spent on this search ? A much smaller, and poorer country. Am sure they had put in more resources than any other country and yet tried to help with a big heart.

And even before the passengers have been found, the Americans are preparing the bill. The crudeness and ugliness shown by United States is quite surprising sometimes.

Bakistan is at the cross roads of the world.

For the past few weeks Bakistan has been at the forefront in the search for MH270.

This has been accomplished through all Bakistanis turning in circles to sniff their musharrafs for explosive materials, jet fuel or debris.

The world owes Pakistan $3 billion for this endeavour.

Not to speak of a further $2 billion compensation, after sniffing their own musharrafs assiduously, many Bakistanis started to sniff each other's musharrafs for a sign of MH370, resulting in much violence and loss of life.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2014 14:17

to preempt any +ve coverage of japan,korea,indian planes arriving in perth soon (I think 2 japan planes have already arrived), Cheen has sent a strong force

http://www.watoday.com.au/world/china-t ... 35ar5.html

Reports carried by official news agency Xinhua emphasised that the search had been recalibrated to take into suspected plane debris spotted by Chinese high-definition observation satellite Gaofen-1 last Tuesday.

It expounded on the arrival of two "highly-anticipated" Chinese Air Force planes which could help "precipitate a swift conclusion to the agonising international search".

"With Australian and New Zealand airforce P3 Orions limited by the vast distances and their dependence on infrared imaging, the Chinese IL-76 will be a welcome relief to the authorities here as the challenges of the task at hand begin to overwhelm available resources," the Xinhua report said.

The IL-76, "emblazoned with a rich-red Chinese flag, as well as a sky-blue hull and a white underbelly, created a rare ripple of enthusiasm across the airbase that is currently home to a large international press corp", the report continued.

Among the benefits of the plane were its many windows, allowing a "very good visual search capability".

No mention, then, of the plane landing at the wrong airport on Saturday, underlining the potentially logistical and language difficulties facing complex multi-national search effort.
"They landed at Perth and then they landed here," RAAF Corporal Janine Fabre told Reuters at Base Pearce, a dusty collection of runways and low-slung buildings about 35 kilometres north of Perth.
"We don't know why."
Chinese reports later denied the IL-76 had landed at the wrong airport.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-throw ... z2wmB5OSqL

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2014 14:27

nyt:
He said that Britain would send a naval hydrographic survey ship, the Echo, and that Japan would send two more Orions. The Chinese government said it would send three military aircraft to Australia, joining a Chinese polar exploration vessel and merchant ships that are already on the way.

http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/two- ... 0/25102968
On Saturday, the Norwegian merchant ship Hoegh St. Petersburg was released from taking part in the search, according to AMSA. Australian officials thanked the ship's crew for its "valuable assistance and efforts," AMSA said via Twitter
....................

our planes will likely soon arrive in perth
http://kdvr.com/2014/03/22/malaysia-370 ... ian-ocean/
“Two Indian aircraft, a P-8 Poseidon and a C-130 Hercules, arrived in Malaysia last night to assist with the search,” he said.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 23 Mar 2014 14:57

^^^Which windows on IL-76 is the report talking about? In fact, when I saw the news report and the picture, my first observation was about lack of windows and subsequent lateral visibility. Whatever few windows are there will have the engines in their LOS.

Rishi · Post by **Rishi** » 23 Mar 2014 15:03

rohitvats wrote:^^^Which windows on IL-76 is the report talking about? In fact, when I saw the news report and the picture, my first observation was about lack of windows and subsequent lateral visibility. Whatever few windows are there will have the engines in their LOS.

observer windows in nose and tail?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Mar 2014 15:23

So the Chinese find a 24 m object, that many experts believe to be a part of the wing; but...
...most of the planes are now searching for a pallet and not what the Chinese photographed.

UBCNews CT#1 Final Step: "SUV-compatible object found floating over extremely deep water, remote area. Tsk-tsk, sorry, no further salvage possible".

Wonder if any satellite detected an overflight by something else over that remote area - b4 the pallet appeared. Though a pallet surviving indicates the fuselage broke open, but things inside were not totally shattered. Maybe shielded by whatever pallet was strapped to.

Real news: Another day has passed, with hajaar-hajaar satellites, ships, planes and pairs of eyes scanning the area.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2014 16:43

the 40ft and 20ft shipping containers mostly have nothing but wooden 7 ft high pallets inside deposited by small forklift trucks. thats how our desi r2i cardboard boxes land in india as well. ships sometimes lose containers in rough water seeing they are stacked 4 levels high even above the main deck.

so it could just be the contents of such lost container from some past storm. one could even find clothes and shoes floating and need to look for the pricing tags to conclude its not used stuff from passengers.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 16:55

Chinese report that Malaysians say that a French satellite has seen some debris in that general area - no details given:
http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1 ... nes-flight

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 17:01

If it is unfathomable why no jetsam and flotsam has been found yet - you spot it, and an hour later, it could be 3.6km away.

Erik van Sebille, an oceanographer at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, said the currents in the area typically move at about one meter (yard) per second although can sometimes move faster.
Based on the typical speed, a current could theoretically move a floating object about 173 kilometers (107 miles) in two days.

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/other-wo ... -1.1307023

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 17:04

Seems the northern search is still on?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/23/world/asi ... nes-plane/

Countries from central Asia to Australia are also engaged in the search along an arc drawn by authorities based on satellite pings received from the plane hours after it vanished. One arc tracks the southern Indian Ocean zone that's the focus of current attention.

The other arc tracks over parts of Cambodia, Laos, China and into Kazakhstan.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 17:09

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/malaysia-ai ... ian-ocean/

I dislike the attitude that is seemingly being displayed by Malaysia Airlines. Yes, we Asians must stand together, etc., but this is B.S.

AMSA said the aircraft that spotted the pallet was unable to take photos of it.

"We went to some of the expert airlines and the use of wooden pallets is quite common in the industry," Barton said. "They're usually packed into another container, which is loaded in the belly of the aircraft. ... It's a possible lead, but we will need to be very certain that this is a pallet because pallets are used in the shipping industry as well."

Sam Cardwell, a spokesman for AMSA, said the maritime agency had requested a cargo manifest from Malaysia Airlines, but he was unsure whether it had been received as of Sunday night.

Malaysia Airlines asked The Associated Press to submit questions via email for comment on whether Flight 370 had wooden pallets aboard when it disappeared. There was no immediate response.

When Brazilian searchers in 2009 were looking for debris from Air France Flight 447 after it mysteriously plunged into the Atlantic Ocean, the first thing they found was a wooden pallet. The military first reported that the pallet came from the Air France flight, but then said six hours later that the plane had not been carrying any wooden pallets.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 17:13

Search area from AMSA (PDF)
https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com ... rch_tv.pdf

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 17:17

Objects: Lat,Long
March 16 A: -45°58'33.9996'', 90°37'37.0008'' - DigitalGlobe satellite
March 16 B: -44°03'02.0016'', 91°13'27.0006'' - Digital Globe satellite
March 18 C: -44°57'29'', 90°13'43'' - Chinese satellite
March 21 - wooden pallet, roughly -44°, 92° based on image below:
https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com ... ted_TV.jpg

PS: better:
https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com ... ina_TV.jpg

---
New Zealand also is sending aircraft.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Mar 2014 17:21

here an eg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLEXI0pjQgo

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Mar 2014 17:32

NYT:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/world ... ml?hp&_r=0

As air traffic controllers struggled to re-establish contact with Flight 370, military radar at the Butterworth air force base on Malaysia’s west coast picked up an unidentified aircraft near where the plane disappeared.

But the watch team, normally an officer and three enlisted personnel, either failed to notice the signal or decided not to designate and track it as a “zombie,” which would have pushed the information up the chain of command and possibly alerted air command.

At a briefing on the base the next night, about 80 air force personnel were told there was “no proof” the unidentified signal showed the missing plane making a sharp turn, flying back across Peninsular Malaysia and then turning again and heading northwest over the Strait of Malacca, a person familiar with the situation said.

But investigators now believe that is exactly what happened.

The failure to recognize Flight 370 in the radar data — or refusal to do so, to avoid the embarrassment of admitting an unidentified plane had breached air defense — meant the Malaysian authorities continued to search in the seas to the east instead of the west of the peninsula. Military radar last recorded the signal at 2:22 a.m. about 200 nautical miles northwest of Butterworth, according to an image of the radar track.

Chris McLaughlin, a vice president at Inmarsat, the satellite communications firm, said technicians pulled the logs of all transmissions from the plane within four hours of its disappearance. Then, after a day without sign of the plane, they began scouring the company’s databases for any trace of Flight 370.

“We decided to go have another look at our network to see if there was any data that we had missed,” Mr. McLaughlin said. It turned out there was. Inmarsat technicians identified what appeared to be a series of fleeting “pings” between Flight 370, a satellite over the Indian Ocean and a ground station in Perth, Australia.

The signals — seven of them transmitted at one-hour intervals — were an important clue, because they could have come only from an antenna receiving power from the plane itself. But while they carried a unique code identifying the aircraft as Flight 370, the signals contained no positioning or other data that could indicate where the plane was when it sent them.

By Sunday afternoon, a team of Inmarsat engineers set to work using the principles of trigonometry to determine the distance between the satellite and the plane at the time of each ping, and then to calculate two rough flight paths. The plane, they concluded, had turned again. But it may have then traveled in more or less a straight line, heading north over countries likely to have picked it up on radar, or south toward the Indian Ocean and Antarctica.

The Malaysian government said it received Inmarsat’s data on March 12 and spent three days analyzing and vetting it with investigators from the United States before redirecting the search on March 15.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 23 Mar 2014 17:58

West Australian Current should take debris/floatsam and jetsams nearer to the shores of Perth. Chinese sightings are in opposite direction to earlier Australian sighting. It could be a new set of objects. Based on speed of ocean currents in the area of crash sighting the site could be as far away as 1700 Kms west for the sighting location. i.e. if MH370 has really crashed there and not in Northern corridor or in Myanmar, DG, Male, A&N etc.

But it could very well be in RIAU Island unless we believe in absolute accuracy of revealed radar data and other information and that there is no coverup.