Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Rajiv Lather
BRFite
Posts: 287
Joined: 20 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Karnal, Haryana, India

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Rajiv Lather »

Whether it was Doppler effect or spy satellite, how does it help the relatives and future air travelers ? Every step in the event chain ending with the plane being where it is; must include the human factor. The motives and thought process of people involved in each step just cannot be ignored. Any scientific theory can be turned around to stand on its head by one smart human in the whole process.

We all have been successfully blinded, and the INMARSAT transformed into an elephant.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

one of the reports said that the specific ping was isolated by eliminating all known pings from id'ed aircraft on id'ed tracks - leaving the 'rogue ping'; the ping itself does not send id, location or time signal - hypothesis must be that its a blank ping to indicate to inmarsat that a node is available 'here' - so some sort of specific 'word' that id's itself as a unique node (not linked to aircraft id) to inmarsat. this should be analogous to my cell phone talking to the nearest cell tower but not necessarily telling it more than "i am here".

assumption is that the intial analysis indicated the overall arc based on distance from satellite for received ping and any angular corrections built in, but without further data they could not identify direction. if radar data (from cunning yindoos) eliminates norther track, then the data set can be halved (or more)

if you then eliminate hypersonic reindeer slieghs and paksat guide yak herders - that leaves you with a small number of pings to sort out over a largely empty ocean (not many airways or shipping lanes)

do we know if it was acars that sent the ping via satcom, or the satcom unit itself that pinged? i do not know, nor have i seen anywhere if MAS uses the satcom uplink for acars - many airlines don't bother on cost grounds.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by shiv »

Lalmohan the Inmarsat guy on TV said that the ping included plane id but no other info.
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by shiv »

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.asp ... 674902.xml
Routine Data Analysis Helped Inmarsat Pinpoint MH370's Path
By Sean Broderick sean.broderick@aviationweek.com
Source: AWIN First
March 24, 2014

Inmarsat leveraged a “groundbreaking but traditional mathematics-based process” to analyze data from other flights that use its satellite network and establish a pattern that helped investigators nail down Malaysia Airlines Flight 370’s (MH370) final flight path as traveling south over the Indian Ocean, an Inmarsat executive explains.

Inmarsat’s initial analysis, handed over to investigators on March 11, helped investigators establish the now-famous northern and southern arcs as possible flight corridors for MH370 after it dropped off radar on March 8 over the Andaman Sea.

Inmarsat VP External Communications Chris McLaughlin says the company continued to analyze its data, and concluded on March 23 that the aircraft’s last known position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean, well southwest of Perth.

“What we discovered and what we passed to the investigation ... is that the southern path predicted fits very well with the path that’s been indicated by our pings,” McLaughlin says. “To all intents and purposes, there’s no way [the aircraft] went north.”

A key calculation done by Inmarsat was determining the “Doppler shift” in the ping, or the slight change in the frequency of the signal caused by the movement of the aircraft relative to the satellite in space.

“From that process – a compression or an expansion of the wavelengths – you can determine whether the aircraft is getting closer or farther away,” McLaughlin explains. “It’s been a groundbreaking but traditional mathematics-based process that was then peer-reviewed by others in the space industry, and indeed contributed to by Boeing.”

The data analyzed was generated by pings from MH370 to one of Inmarsat’s 10 satellites. McLaughlin likened the Inmarsat avionics and antenna on an aircraft to a mobile phone, while the applications that use the satcom link, including the Aircraft Communications and Reporting System (ACARS), are “apps.” On MH370, “the apps were turned off, but the handset wasn’t,” he explains.

Since MH370 was not sending routine communications, the Inmarsat satellite was sending hourly “polling signals” to the Boeing 777. So long as the aircraft was operating, acknowledgement signals came back. “This includes its unique identification code, and confirmation the aircraft satcom is still operating and available for communications, if required,” Inmarsat explains on its website.

Inmarsat used these signals to establish that MH370 was in the air for about 6 hr. after it lost contact. The deeper analysis helped the company and U.K. Air Accidents Investigation Branch investigators narrow down the final ping to a remote area over the southern Indian Ocean, in the vicinity of where search teams have been working for more than a week.

So far, sightings of debris have not been linked to MH370’s disappearance. However, the more detailed analysis was enough to convince Malaysian officials that the aircraft went down in the area where the recent search efforts has been focused.

“Based on the new analysis, Inmarsat and AAIB have concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor, and that its last position was in the middle of the southern Indian Ocean, west of Perth,” Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said March 24.

The location is both “remote” and “far from any possible landing sites,” he continued. “It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean.”

Copyright © 2014, Penton
All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

thanks shiv - thats helpful

its also feasible that the aircraft was not on autopilot (assume significant electrical failure), but could have been in a stable trimmed condition and just flying 'uncontrolled' with only the wind to alter its course. hypothesis - crew set it up on a southerly heading maybe whilst they tried to figure out where to go and deal with whatever was going on and then passed out

even if the FCS failed - the static stability set up in steady trim would have been enough to keep it flying in the same direction

increasingly i am wondering about the 200kgs of Li batteries in the hold. if stored forward, they would be near the main equipment bay. if a fire broke out there and burned its way through the data buses and power supplies...

selamat malam time
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

vina wrote:The Malaysians are B*stards. They have blood on their hands. The Inmarsat analysis was done on Mar 9th, the day after the crash on 8th Mar. The Americans and Brits did baboo giri and the Malaysians got their hands on the Inmarsat analysis on 12th Mar . The Malaysians sat on it for a further 3 days , and released the info and that too only partially.

......

Adm Arun Prakash was right. The Malaysians were dicks and all countries were wasting resources on a massive scale, and searched for close to 8 days in totally wrong places. The Chinese better be hopping mad with the Malaysians. I wonder why they did what they did.

WTF!
Thoroughly endorsed!
Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Harpal Bector »

A_Gupta wrote:I think the Coriolis force acceleration would be way below the threshold of detection.
That is what my instinct tells me too but that is why I am asking for the actual data and the error budget of their onboard clocks. If they have really done the work to synchronize their onboard electronic clock to a standard atomic clock, which in turn has been referenced to a terrestrial standard clock, then they may have the detection threshold that is far lower than what I can imagine.

I am willing to give the INMARSAT scientists a fair hearing. It is not their fault that the Malays are handling the situation poorly.
Last edited by Harpal Bector on 25 Mar 2014 16:45, edited 3 times in total.
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

anishns wrote:One possible explanation.....on the doppler theory. Anyone kind enough to translate in layman terms to non-engg folks?

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5355 ... ost8399298
Thanks for the link!
I have assumed that MH370 flew for 6.83 hours along a great circle route from its last known position to a point over the debris field. I have also assumed that it flew at a constant airspeed of 850 kilometers per hour. It is possible to calculate the velocity of MH370 (both speed and direction) at every point along this route. It is then possible to divide this velocity into two components, one along the line-of-sight to the Inmarsat and the other at right angles to this line-of-sight. The following graph shows the component of MH370's velocity along the line-of-sight. At the start of its silent flight, MH370 was flying at a speed of 219.3 kph (kilometers per hour) directly towards the satellite and 821 kph directly perpendicular to the line-of-sight. Therafter, the airplane flew in a direction further and further away from the satellite, and the component of the velocity along the line-of-sight decreased. By the time the airplane reached the debris field, it was travelling radially away from the satellite at a speed of 500.5 kph and directly across the satellite's field-of-view at a speed of 687 kph.
I sat in front of Mathematica for some score of minutes, wondering whether to take the plunge and do the calculation. Wait long enough and someone else will do it for you.

Notice that "towards the satellite". I thought yesterday they said the plane flew away from the satellite at all times?
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

speed is constant IF the autopilot and autothrottle were functional
else at a fixed trim setting and fixed throttle setting, at a minumum - airspeed would depend on any head/tail/cross winds and attendant vectors. this introduces a lot of variability into where the aircraft ended up after so many hours

if the ping trace provides a reasonable predictability to the actual track, then the window can be narrowed. the bayesian model can then be re-biased accordingly

marten - in all flight conditions, the crew are trained to trim the aircraft so that it flies itself, leaving the crew free to focus on emergencies

we do not know if ap was engaged or not, if not - and it was in trim, it would hold a steadyish course. they probably thought they could recover the plane - perhaps they ran out of time and did not realise. does not have to be depressurisation - could just be noxious fumes

it seems that 2 other large aircraft have crashed in the past decade due to Li batteries in the cargo catching fire...
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

Question on Boeing 777 speeds:
They say that the Boeing 777 cruise speed is Mach 0.84.
Elsewhere they say that that is manufacturer's spec., Boeing 777 cruise speed for maximum efficiency is really Mach 0.82.

This site http://www.fighter-planes.com/jetmach1.htm gives the speed of sound at 35,000 feet to be 574 knots or 1063 km/h.

Therefore Mach 0.84 translates to 893 km/h and Mach 0.82 translates to 872 km/h.

Which one is the cruising speed that Malaysian Airlines would use for the Boeing 777?
Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Harpal Bector »

That 100s of Hz number is what I was seeing in my back of the envelope calculations. They have done something totally fantastic or totally stupid and I can't figure out which it is. Of all the players in this game, INMARSAT has the least to gain or lose from the outcome and its presentation has been consistent. I am not inclined to dump them in the same basket as Sorcha Faal just yet.

The change in the observed shift if attributed to a Coriolis effect would be proportional in magnitude to the instantaneous velocity of the a/c. That would allow for a determination of the the airplane's velocity and relatively decent estimate of the position of the a/c.

Again this is all wishful thinking on my part as I know exactly nothing about what INMARSAT has done. I really hope for the sake of the passengers and their relatives, they have not just taken the shifts and put them on a plot with shifts from the NB KL-Beijing and the SB Beijing-KL MAS flights from several weeks ago. That kind of correlation analysis makes corporate science into a plague upon mankind. I really hope that is not what they have done.
Last edited by Harpal Bector on 25 Mar 2014 15:44, edited 2 times in total.
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

Lalmohan wrote: it seems that 2 other large aircraft have crashed in the past decade due to Li batteries in the cargo catching fire...
Could such a fire in the right place knock out transponders and ACARS but leave auto pilot still functioning?
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

the electrical equipment is normally in racks in one or more bays and there are multiple power supplies/buses with redundancies. lets say that all comms equipment was in right bay and nav/autopilot equipment in left bay. then lets say that fire took out feeds to right bay but was extinguished before it took out left bay
its possible
but i dont know the innards of the 777 so well
Harpal Bector
BRFite
Posts: 226
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Harpal Bector »

Some technical briefing from the INMARSAT guys.
(https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... eam_ref=10)

The size of the shifts looks comparable to what the back of the envelope calculation suggests.

https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos ... 5617_o.png
They are doing a correlation analysis. That is not very satisfying. They could be correlating noise to noise.

Sorry the usual resizing doesn't seem to work.
CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6865
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by CRamS »

We have all faced situations where your laptop just hangs. Won't accept and keyboard and mouse input. I am bringing this up as an analogy to what could have happened. Something knocked all the systems off, the transponders etc, and the pilots simply could not communicate with the outside world, and at the same time, the auto pilot could not be disabled. Is such a scenario likely? This would have been horrific 6-7 hour journey with pilots desperately trying to do something, and passengers kicking and screaming in fear and grief, until the plane ran out of fuel and plunged. Its breathtakingly scary to even imagine such a scenario.

One other thing, lets say the same above scenario hold with the exception that pilot was able to communicate his predicament with control towers. Even then what could anybody have done, if the plane's controls were rendered inactive?
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

there is significant redundancy built into the aircraft systems for the laptop-hangup problem not to occur (dual for most things, triple for some), main power buses 2 ac and 2 dc, atleast 1 aux, ram air turbine - even for smaller aircraft

acars - only 1
transponder - i would have expected 2, in case 1 fails
satcom - only 1 - this may have local battery backup, which is why it was pinging?

i am tending towards noxious fumes as being the problem
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by UlanBatori »

Relatives are calling the Malaysian govt "real murderers" .. I wonder if there is anything more than sheer rage born of grief there. Chinese rumors? Has the PRC accepted this PakMarSat stuff? I wish someone would convert the plane velocity data into a polar coordinate system centered on the saterrite's ground point (like a plumb line). Radial and tangential, with sign on each if possible.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

given the normal level of public dissent in the PRC, this much venting is clearly authorised - directed towards someone other than the party and secondly used to brow beat little asean upstarts for future benefits
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59808
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by ramana »

CRS, Its called Single Event Upset(SEU). Its modelled in avionics reliability estimates to determine the design margin of packages.

Anyway, by 11 March, INMARSAT had determiend its the southern route and why is it on 24 March its being presented as groundbreaking news and Malays were asking for help in Anadman Sea? And why the BS about Northern Arc when its clearly the Southern arc that was important?
They screwed the Bayesian analysis by giving false probabilities.


More likely they were going by base instincts to cover their butt.
And the UK and US knew as they had the INMARSAT analysis.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by UlanBatori »

CT by the Pros: seeking $$$BBB for CyberSecurity
Israel Defense: Was Malaysian Airliner Cyberjacked?
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

ramana - are you sure about the timelines? i was under the impression that the definitive analysis was done over this last weekend
chaanakya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9513
Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by chaanakya »

May be EMP, but then with fly by wire tech , plane can not fly for six hours if electronics are fried for any reason. Flight Director Control System should work for Autopilot in HDG mode to function.

Only recovery of BB might answer most of the questions.
ldev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2616
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by ldev »

India Calls Off Its Search for MH370
India has asked its warships and planes to call off their search operation in the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal, a day after Malaysian authorities said they believe that the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 that it was looking for went down in the southern Indian Ocean.

Two planes from India remain however in a Malaysian air force base where they were dispatched last week to join the multinational search for the Boeing Co.BA +0.78% 777-200 jet, a senior Indian defense official told The Wall Street Journal. The aircraft disappeared on March 8 with 239 people on board.

“There is no tasking of the two planes right now,” the official, who declined to be named, said. “It will be decided after meetings what the next course of action will be. Until then, they will remain there.”

Though the cost of operating warships and aircraft would be high for all participating nations including India, analysts said individual countries are expected to pick up the expenses instead of presenting their bills to the Malaysian government.

“This is a humanitarian issue and therefore everybody rises to the occasion like when you have a natural disaster,” said Pradeep Kaushiva, a retired vice admiral of the Indian Navy.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

a deployment to perth for the P8 and the C130 may be a good exercise
Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14355
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Aditya_V »

Still wondering is this all a cover up for a Diego Garcia shootdown?
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/m ... ve-updates

More INMARSAT stuff. Look at the two southern paths drawn which depend on what speed you think the plane flew at.

Image
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

UlanBatori wrote:CT by the Pros: seeking $$$BBB for CyberSecurity
Israel Defense: Was Malaysian Airliner Cyberjacked?
So ACARS can be turned off by a hacker?
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by UlanBatori »

And the same hacker can keep beeping to PakMarSat at whatever delays and Doppler shifts they please. You can probably buy the gadget on eBay or AliBaba.com and have your own 777, going to Mars if you want.

Here u go: Rocket Science Made Simple Onlee: INMARSAT basics 101

Starter kit for saying hello to INMARSAT

For the sailor who has everything

or for the pilot: Flight Monitor
Last edited by UlanBatori on 25 Mar 2014 20:54, edited 1 time in total.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

possibly, but would need a lot of knowledge. someone has to access the ARINC/SITA network from a node at one of the airlines or OEM's, then know enough about the addressing to target a specific aircraft, then upload info (possible) including rogue code (tricky) which then executes on the acars box (i guess it could) - but the code is going to be compiled and secured using various protocols (it is flight certified software) and then theoretically yes.

but whats the point? acars is in no way flight critical. its a nice to have. makes no real practical difference if it is not working
raj.devan
BRFite
Posts: 106
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by raj.devan »

Amidst all the media hype about hijackings and pilot suicides, comes one hypothesis that seems more or less possible.

http://www.blog.bcvlex.com/uncategorized/290.html
The Federal Aviation Administration recently released an Airworthiness Directive (AD) that concerns the Boeing 777-200 series. It can be found here:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2013-09 ... -23456.htm

Based on this factual information, I have been told a very plausible explanation to the events. In fact, it is probably the most plausible theory I have heard until now and it is compatible with all the erratic facts that have been disclosed. No voluntary human interference, just a terrible technical failure mixed with an improper handling by the crew of an emergency situation. And it is scaring, remember Helios?

After their last radio connection (1.19am) they suffer the loss of most of SATCOM aids (cracking in the fuselage skin underneath the satellite communication antenna adapter, as the AD mentions). This event occurs at 1.21am. The total or partial loss of the antenna implicates loss of ACARS, ADS A and B, transponder information, as well as reliable GPS data.

As a consequence, they sustain a rapid but non-explosive loss of cabin pressure. This does not necessarily involve AP disconnection. Masks fall down automatically in the passenger cabin, but pilots have to put them on manually and they are not of easy access. They prefer to concentrate in the basic rule “fly, navigate, communicate and manage”. The emergency procedure includes a progressive descent (to be performed in successive stages) down to FL100, while turning back to departure point. This is typically performed by turning the altitude and heading select knobs counter-clockwise (turn is therefore performed to their left). Meanwhile, they have omitted to put their masks on and they become hypoxic and loose conscience.

As far as we know, the procedure is as follows:

First step: 1. altitude lower selection (any) and press level change. 2. Heading selection to the left if no terrain (any, just turn it to the left, or right if procedure to avoid terrain). 3. Select actual speed plus thrust idle and speedbreak.

Second step: Select FL100 if no terrain, Hdg parallel to the airway (the objective is not to conflict with any traffic on the same airway, on the emergency descent), and asses if the speed is correct or they have to reduce due to severe damage on the airframe to reduce stress.

This is done by the pilot flying. Pilot not flying, sets seat belts on, checks masks have dropped or drop them, select 7700 on the transponder for emergency, and finally communicates ATC and maybe pax depending on company policy.

It looks that they never achieved the second step (crew already fainted or even dead).

They are now flying southwest. Life is still incompatible with altitudes over FL200, and pilots die because they do not descend fast enough and with the stress they omit to put their masks on. Meanwhile, cabin crew and passengers are maybe wearing their masks, but with a limited autonomy of merely 20 minutes. In less that half an hour, everybody is dead and the aircraft is still flying with the AP, with heading select southwest, and altitude select of more than FL200. And this will continue until the aircraft runs out of fuel, seven or eight hours after. First one engine, some minutes later, the other engine. And that’s all, the aircraft falls, crashes into the ocean in one of the less surveyed areas in the world, maybe not very far from Kerguelen Island.

The aircraft can be lying in the bottom of the Indian Ocean… and beyond any chance of DFDR recovery. Nobody will ever know what and how happened. No liabilities beyond Montreal Convention.
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12124
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ doesn't explain the Malaysian radar data that the plane went IGREX-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX and was last seen headed north towards the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. We can be reasonably confident that it was the plane because its position is compatible with INMARSAT. Who/what turned the plane?

If we can discard the Malaysian radar data and the plane also was on the right INMARSAT arc for the 2:11AM satellite ping, then this theory is good.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59808
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by ramana »

raj.devan A few pages ago it was confirmed that MH-370 Boeing 777 did not have that antenna subject to the Airworthiness Directive(AD).
Theo_Fidel

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Theo_Fidel »

What happens if a couple of revised coordinates are programed into the computer and then the aircraft is out of coordinates. Does it wander aimlessly?
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by shiv »

I find the above scenario plausible but unlikely simply because the "loss of consciousness/death" does not occur like it does in Hollywood. The pilots have 3 minutes of clarity at which time they will become increasingly short of breath (panting/air hunger) and will put on their masks and not bugger about trying to navigate etc. Once the rapid descent is undertaken everyone will have more air to breathe. This is basic training and a man who flew a simulator at home as a hobby would not miss this.

The transponder and ACARS went off at different times which goes against a single catastrophic failure. After all that the INMARSAT pings were working - which means that communication with the equipment was possible and not totally kaput.

This was one related report
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/world ... .html?_r=0
The signals — seven of them transmitted at one-hour intervals — were an important clue, because they could have come only from an antenna receiving power from the plane itself. But while they carried a unique code identifying the aircraft as Flight 370, the signals contained no positioning or other data that could indicate where the plane was when it sent them.
anmol
BRFite
Posts: 1922
Joined: 05 May 2009 17:39

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by anmol »

INMARSAT Official: MH370 Flew Over Andaman Islands Then Went South
shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by shiv »

That night at the Malaysian AF radar station: 3 underlings U1, 2 and 3 + one officer

Scenario 1:
Officer is asleep.
U1 sees flight on radar and says to U2 and U3 playing cards "I can see something odd la. Come and see"
"It's nothing la. Come and have coffee'
"Shall I wake up sir?"
"No la. Waste of time"

Scenario 2:
Officer is asleep.
U1 sees flight on radar and says to U2 and U3 playing cards "I can see something odd la. Come and see"
"Maybe nothing. Ask sir"
"Shall I wake up sir?"
"Yes"
"Sir I can see an unidentified aircraft on radar"
"It's nothing la"
Officer goes back to sleep. U1 has coffee with U2 and U3
raj.devan
BRFite
Posts: 106
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by raj.devan »

Image

Now, the more I look at the flight path, the more it looks like a hijack and an onboard tussle for control of the aircraft.

The first sharp turn left looks like the moment when an intruder entered the cockpit and ordered the pilot to change course for what looks like Sri Lanka. If you look at the direction of the aircraft between the civilian and military radar registrations, this looks roughly like a course for Sri Lanka.

The second turn takes place when the pilot(s) manage to overpower the hijacker. This is a right turn and looks like the pilot - having regained control in the cockpit - was trying to head back presumably to the nearest airport in Malaysia or Thailand.

Then the aircraft takes a sweeping turn to the left again, indicating that it would have fallen once again into the hands of the hijackers who try to take it back on its course west. Somewhere in all this, everyone in the cockpit gets incapacitated as a result of the struggle, just after the aircraft veers south and is set on auto pilot to fly into the southern Indian Ocean.
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by UlanBatori »

I think this latest plot is a plot to force an angry response from Indian military "retirees". So a big plane came at some altitude, probably quite high, and did all these dramatics right over Indian defense-critical territory, and no one saw it? Says a lot about the attention level of Indian radar at Car Nicobar etc. The entire PAF and PLAF could dance the tango there and no one would be the wiser?

The alternative is that this whole things is 400% pakistan, all done to confuse the searchers and do other damage.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12089
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Vayutuvan »

I would rather go with 100% Pakistan.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13262
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Post by Lalmohan »

that track has been drawn to show that somehow the plane missed all other radar zones, including the Indonesian one - the Indian one is collateral damage due to thick pencil

very likely that whatever is watching sumatra was not awake that night
H&D issues will ensue
Post Reply