Malaysian Airlines Flight MH-370 goes missing

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Mar 2014 22:17

My CT
Is this why Kilos' were sabotaged so India is short of UW resources to search this part of Sagar?

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 13 Mar 2014 22:19

Singha wrote:
Rajiv Lather wrote:We need 24 hour CAPs until the plane is found. Right now.
would be more alarming if it was a stil bizjet with huge range capable of using small airstrips.

I so hope am wrong - but that is why I keep harping on that flight simulator in the pilot's house. And also the fact that he was a "tech geek". He knew every inch, every switch of that plane; as quoted by his colleagues.

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 13 Mar 2014 22:25

Jhujar wrote:My CT
Is this why Kilos' were sabotaged so India is short of UW resources to search this part of Sagar?

Me too feel some link between kilos , navy accidents and whats happening now. IN sending additional assets like p-8I/warship would again stretch resource. question is what is the stage being set up for?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 22:27

No Comment!

Malaysian Nurses asked to explain spoof of bomoh

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 22:30

Rajiv Lather wrote:
Singha wrote:{quote="Rajiv Lather"}We need 24 hour CAPs until the plane is found. Right now.{/quote}

would be more alarming if it was a stil bizjet with huge range capable of using small airstrips.
I so hope am wrong - but that is why I keep harping on that flight simulator in the pilot's house. And also the fact that he was a "tech geek". He knew every inch, every switch of that plane; as quoted by his colleagues.

Did you ever finish your scenario?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Mar 2014 22:41

UB what was it doing in the Ind Ocean? Heading to Diego Garcia?

What do they mean by "Indian Ocean"? Perth is also "Indian Ocean". But yes, I see what the US said.

See what Malaysians said:

Investigators also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

So why did it come down in the water? Maybe passengers did a suicidal rush of the cockpit like Ft. 93. That is about the only remaining explanation on why it would have crashed after all this.

Then again, maybe it landed in the water, but why? I don't know how to reconcile "we believe plane is in one piece" with "we believe it went down in the water".

BTW, source not nameable but 100% unimpeachable:

If it had landed, the vibration data from the engine would have been transmitted.

Landing vibration would be transmitted as well. Otherwise, health monitoring data every 30 mins.

Assuming that the transmission could be received, of course, which is questionable with the SITA at least. Note that the region where there is a coverage gap is between Malaysia and SL.

BTW, give the Malaysians a break. If it is what we think it is, then they are the ones who have to explain to relatives, and may be trying their very best to protect the ones on the plane, or just buy time.

Rajiv Lather · Post by **Rajiv Lather** » 13 Mar 2014 22:49

ramana wrote:
Singha wrote:We need 24 hour CAPs until the plane is found. Right now.

would be more alarming if it was a stil bizjet with huge range capable of using small airstrips.

I so hope am wrong - but that is why I keep harping on that flight simulator in the pilot's house. And also the fact that he was a "tech geek". He knew every inch, every switch of that plane; as quoted by his colleagues.

Did you ever finish your scenario?

Offload the passengers, and baggage. Further lighten the plane; remove seats etc...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Mar 2014 22:56

Is there any reason to deliberately come down in the water? Any aircraft carriers/supertankers missing? Or it has to be steal special cargo, like in "Thunderball". But what? Wonder if the flight sim computer showed an unusual number of water landings of 777s. So the "come down in water" theory may consist of
1. Contrails ended
2. IR track ended

OK, could there be an airstrip on a tiny island somewhere there? Or is it all deep water between Malaysia and SL? Crude google satellite maps show ridges, but resolution not good enough to say whether there are islands on top of those. I think you need about 1.5 miles of runway to take off.

There may be possible landing sites off Aceh coast or south. Maybe tsunami threw up something that is not on Google maps and Magellan-e-Karachi found it?

I still think that the plane may have turned back, and crashed on one of the islands b4 it got to Terregano on Malaysia coast. Have they searched well I wonder.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 13 Mar 2014 22:57

ramana wrote:No Comment!

Malaysian Nurses asked to explain spoof of bomoh

On a serious note: My earlier theory that the aircraft might have had an uncontrolled flight into the south west (from Malaysia) Indian ocean appears to be closer to the truth. If it flew for 4 hours at 800kmph, they should be looking at a radius of 3200km. Assuming that it did not reach Occupied Islands of Diego Garcia, Sri Lanka, Maldives or India the only place it can fly off to is the south of Occupied Islands of Diego Garcia. Between occupied Islands of DG and Antartica would be my guess.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 22:59

That would require 24hrs for a ship to reach there.

Remember the RR guys said the plane sends out ACARs data at four stages of flight: take off, climb-up lelve flight, climb down and landing. Four hours is level flight so do they have more data or not? What about climb down and (crash) landing?
How is the data transmitted? Does it have to be near an airport or what?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 13 Mar 2014 23:07

Satellites picked up electronic ping from Malaysian flight MH370 after it lost contact with ground control: source close to investigation

If it's from the ELT then what's the problem. It would have locational stats. The ELT would keep transmitting for some time to the satellites that would relay locational info.

saip · Post by **saip** » 13 Mar 2014 23:07

Why is this coming out now, some five days after disappearance? People should have been looking for this ACARs data after a few hours after disappearance even if it is 'classified'.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 13 Mar 2014 23:10

Guardian: New search area in Indian Ocean

Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, has just confirmed that a new search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean, reports the Guardian’s Paul Lewis in Washington.

“It is my understanding the one possible piece of information, or pieces of information, has led to the possibility that a new search area may be opened up over the Indian Ocean,” Carney said, without detailing the nature of the new information.

He said discussions were ongoing with international partners to “deploy the appropriate assets” in any new search in the Indian Ocean. He added the new search would be based on “additional information” that was not yet “conclusive”.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 23:12

OK Bloomberg reports

Inida Looking for missing plan, while US suspects air piracy

...With no evidence of a mechanical failure or pilot error, U.S. investigators are treating the disappearance as a case of air piracy, though it remains unclear by whom, one person said. The investigation still hasn’t located where the plane may be, the person said.

The comments add a new note of mystery to the March 8 disappearance of the Malaysian Airline System Bhd. plane carrying 239 people. Data compiled so far show no evidence of a crash near the Malaysian peninsula, the people said. The airline has no information on this, a spokeswoman at Malaysian Air said, declining to be identified.

....

Read on.

US ship being moved from Gulf Of Thailand to Malacca Strait and not the Indian Ocean.
So hold the horses.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 13 Mar 2014 23:27

saip wrote:Why is this coming out now, some five days after disappearance? People should have been looking for this ACARs data after a few hours after disappearance even if it is 'classified'.

Dunno about the ACARs data. Suppose this was "air piracy" (gone awry, most likely). Then data from the plane is not the only data. Unkil's NSA may have picked up some chatter.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Mar 2014 23:28

matrimc wrote:TSJ shot down my DG theory. So assume that it is correct

There is nothing on Diego Garcia concerning technical and logistics that we don't have in Singapore. DG right now is focused on supporting Afghanistan. Singapore has it in SE Asia. Everything top notch, just like downtown USA, maybe even better. We likey Singapore very much.

saip · Post by **saip** » 13 Mar 2014 23:28

But Bloomberg contradicts the Washington Time's story

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... laysia-pl/

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Mar 2014 23:34

saip wrote:But Bloomberg contradicts the Washington Time's story

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... laysia-pl/

Is the Washington Times stil owned by the good Rev. Moon?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Mar 2014 23:40

The thing is, NSA has recorded all the cellphone calls, engine data transmissions and pirates' conversations, conversations between passengers, cockpit chatter, galley chatter and chatter from all the pakistans on the airliner, but can't tell anyone. Now we need Snowden-2 to reveal what they know, since they won't know how to analyze all that data either.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 23:43

saip wrote:But Bloomberg contradicts the Washington Time's story

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... laysia-pl/

Bloomberg quotes

The U.S. Navy is moving the destroyer USS Kidd from the Gulf of Thailand to the Strait of Malacca to help in the search, Commander William Marks, a spokesman for the Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said in an e-mail.

It also will move a P-8A Poseidon aircraft into the area on March 15 to rotate with a P-3C Orion craft that has been involved in the search, he said.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Mar 2014 23:46

UlanBatori wrote:The thing is, NSA has recorded all the cellphone calls, engine data transmissions and pirates' conversations, conversations between passengers, cockpit chatter, galley chatter and chatter from all the pakistans on the airliner, but can't tell anyone. Now we need Snowden-2 to reveal what they know, since they won't know how to analyze all that data either.

That would be the Russian analysts who helped Snowden. Better get them. They're sharp, buddy.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Mar 2014 23:49

TSJ, Instead of trading barbs why not bring something useful to the table?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 13 Mar 2014 23:49

Deigo Garcia does have top notch Sonar detection capabilities BTW. Around the world type sensitivity. have been wondering if a 777 Splash down is loud enough to pick up. Wasn't there a report that the Ehime Maru collision was recorded on Sonar on the West coast. Some smart cookie is probably tracking it down.

BTW weren't the Tsunami Buoys India was deploying supposed to have Sonar capability?

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Mar 2014 23:50

Will do.
The P-3 can move slower and stay on station practically all day long. The P-8 may have better electronics though.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 13 Mar 2014 23:50

The more I look at this, the more it seems to me that the plane was going to be used as a missile to hit high-profile target on the ground. But the question is, where were they headed? What lies towards the west?

Here are some thoughts:

1. Had it been Ulanbatori's cousin from upper Himachal Pradesh, they'd have sit tight till the point the aircraft reached in vicinity of Beijing and then sprung the surprise. It would have mattered not whether they hit any government building or not - just the act would have served the purpose.

2. If we given it as taken that the flight turned west, then the key lies in the aircraft type chosen for the task - Boeing 777 - a long range aircraft which was on a long haul flight and which meant that the tank would be full with up to 7.5 hours of available flight time.

3. Now, lets take these assumption - (a) speed: 800 kmph (b) flight duration since last ATC detection on eastern coast: 4 hours - therefore, distance covered in this period - 3200 kms. Let's round that off to 3,500 kms. The plane had traveled approximately 500 kms from east coast to the island of Pulau Perak/Silver Island in Malacca strait when it disappeared from Military Radar at Butterworth AFB of RMAF.

4. So, what are possible targets at 3,000 kms west of this last location on west coast - here are the probables assuming straight line distance:

(a) Colombo - ~2,000 kms
(b) Chennai - ~2,100 kms
(c) Male - ~2,700 kms
(d) Diego Garcia - ~3,200 kms

5. Now, had the aircraft high-jack and commandeering been known to Malaysians - and had they allowed the plane to transit west through their airspace - they would have alerted everyone else in the region. Indonesians, Singaporeans, Thailand and India. And of course, Uncle. Everyone would have been tracking that plane assuming the worst as in 9/11 and kept a vigil on its movement - lest it ram into one of their cities. But this has not happened.

6. So, the act of transponders being switched off during the 'handing-taking' window between Malaysian and Vietnamese ATC points to very sophisticated and elaborate plan. The Vietnamese did not ask Malaysians when it did not show up on their radar and vice-versa. The plane flew a predetermined path meant to evade the military radars as well - lest it be intercepted by air force fighters.

7. I don't think Pakistanis will go to such elaborate effort - and make a Muslim country angry - to hijack the a/c and then slam it on a major south Indian city. They have their own less ponderous means to do this. And not to forget death of Chinese nationals - Pakistanis cannot simply take this risk. Also, they could have slammed into some military target in A&N Island if required.

8. So, could it be remnants of Tamil Tigers trying to create one huge bang on SL? Don't know. But any such act would quickly evaporate any sympathy in Europe for Tamils. I would not consider this

9. Finally, our Islamic yahoos with target being Diego Garcia - Malaysia being an Islamic country means that foot-soldiers and converts would be available. And it matters naught to them what the Chinese think who as it are oppressing faithfuls in Xinjiang. There is another point which leads me to believe that the target was some distant land - the plane flew for 4+ hours west over ocean; the high-jack group would allow this only if they knew that reaching the target would require long flight over ocean. This was not your slam-bam-thank you mam kind of high-jack and ramming exercise like 9/11.

10. And may be, somewhere en route, the pilots decided to ditch the a/c rather than hit some target on ground.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Mar 2014 23:52

Theo_Fidel wrote:Deigo Garcia does have top notch Sonar detection capabilities BTW. Around the world type sensitivity. have been wondering if a 777 Splash down is loud enough to pick up. Wasn't there a report that the Ehime Maru collision was recorded on Sonar on the West coast. Some smart cookie is probably tracking it down.

BTW weren't the Tsunami Buoys India was deploying supposed to have Sonar capability?

All of those signals go back to the USA. DG would be just one of the collection points. I will refrain comment about Singapore.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 13 Mar 2014 23:58

There are thick triple canopy forests near the southern tip of southern Vietnam. They could easily swallow an airplane up. How do I know this? From reading the accounts of the US Navy Seals and the US Army 9th Infantry division.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 14 Mar 2014 00:00

From The Telegraph:

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140313/j ... yIAqz2Sx5I

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Mar 2014 00:02

The sea has currents too. After a week things would have drifted far and wide. Unless huge chunks float, there is virtually no probability of finding anything. Unless there is super duper secret information not shared, or the evil 6th cousin of mongolia is coverting the plane into a submarine, it likely wont be found.

There are lessons to be learnt for future flights, and perhaps a bit of advantage for airbus in the short term where A350 had not caught up before.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Mar 2014 00:03

US Today on the ACARS and how it works. Looks like a gimmcik to charge the airlines after they already paid for the plane.

Plane Engine Data helps track

Airliners typically relay maintenance information to their manufacturers in flight, which can also help track a lost plane like Air France flight 447, which crashed in the Atlantic in 2009.

But as authorities from 12 countries continue searching for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, government and airline officials deny a Wall Street Journal report Thursday that the plane fueled for a five-hour flight to Beijing actually flew for that long, based on automated signals from the engines.

Boeing, which manufactured the 777-200ER, declined comment and Rolls-Royce, which made the engines, didn't respond to requests for comment about the plane.

But Malaysia Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein dismissed the Journal report as "inaccurate" and insisted the plane sent no signals after 1:07 a.m. Saturday -- about 40 minutes after it took off -- when air-traffic control lost contact with it.

However, Hussein also said, "We have not ruled out the possibility that it has flown on."

Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari said that he had contacted Boeing and Rolls Royce and that they "did not receive any further transmission beyond the transmission that was received at 1:07."

The technology at issue is called ACARS, for Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System. The system sends different sorts of information in two ways to the manufacturer, which can then forward the messages along to airlines that pay for the service.

John Hansman, director of the International Center for Air Transportation at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, estimates 90% of U.S. planes have some version of the system because it saves airlines money.

It is unclear whether Malaysia Airlines participated in the program.

{No wonder they(RR and Boeing) did not inform MAs when asked! yet are willing to let press/media know that they have the data.}

At first, the precise monitoring of when brakes were engaged or when planes took off or landed helped airlines track personnel costs more accurately, Hansman said. Maintenance reports can show when an engine is running hotter than usual, which signals wear, he said.

"The reason why people do this is because if something breaks in flight, if maintenance gets the message, they can actually be at the landing point with the replacement part and fix the airplane and turn it around quickly," Hansman said.

In general, the messages can be sent cheaply over land by VHF signal like the Apollo astronauts used, Hansman said. Or they can be sent over water by satellite, which is a more expensive service to send messages, he said.

The service depends on what the airline would like to spend. For example, Boeing promotes a service called custom alerting and analysis that is available for 777, 747 and 787 aircraft with high-speed internet connection that measures fuel, flight controls, landing gear, hydraulic power and communications.

While Malaysia Airlines and its manufacturers aren't saying what sort of service was used on flight 370, the Airbus A330 in the Air France crash had sophisticated messaging that reported problems with airspeed and altitude that helped track down the missing plane.

"In Air France, that's how they knew where to look," Hansman said.

Explains why the sparseness for the MH-370 ACARS.
- Dont know what MAS signed up for? However we know RR collected engine data.
- Travel over water rises costs of data transmission.

I suspect Boeing has more data as a precaution for mfg liability but wont part with it unless its paid for.

BTW Boeing confirmed that the MH-370 did not have the satellite antenna which was the subject of the AD for metal cracks.
So can discount that.

Man we are doing root cause on the fly with sparse data.
People are postulating causes and we are getting data to null them or confrim them.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 14 Mar 2014 00:07

Who would have thunkit!!!

http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2014/03/13/m ... ne-pasztor

Wall Street Journal reporter Andy Pasztor made news today with his story that missing Malaysian Airlines flight 370 could have flown for four more hours after its last confirmed contact, based on information routinely relayed from its Rolls Royce engines.

Malaysian officials denied that today. But Pasztor also claims that American investigators are debating whether “something weird and bizarre” and still unexplained happened in the cockpit, and that the Boeing 777 did not crash when it dropped off the radar, but may have landed.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Mar 2014 00:09

TSJ and Rohitvats, Werent there constant reports of DG being used to support the drone flight in New Caliphate of Waziristan?
So scenario 9 could fit. Maybe the low altitude flight consumed more fuel than expected and it went under?

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 14 Mar 2014 00:12

^^^And not to forget the venerable B-52 parked there...and which were/are used to drop god's blessings on faithfuls in the valleys of Afghanistan...I counted 13 while looking at satellite image of the base.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 14 Mar 2014 00:13

ramana wrote:TSJ and Rohitvats, Werent there constant reports of DG being used to support the drone flight in New Caliphate of Waziristan?
So scenario 9 could fit. Maybe the low altitude flight consumed more fuel than expected and it went under?

Yes, DG supports flights over Afgan/Pakistan but to control flights over SE Asia?

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Mar 2014 00:26

Considering that Russia too has lots of satellites in space, it has remained awfully quiet. China has 'repurposed' 10 satellites and even India is using 1. USA I am sure has started using lots of its space assets in this search. So is Russia so occupied by Ukraine it is not showing any interest here?

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 14 Mar 2014 00:34

abhischekcc wrote:If employees of Freescale were going to China, then it is possible they were smuggling sensitive tech to Beijing. In which case, US is prime suspect in shooting down the plane.

Semicon folks routinely fly to china, korea, se asia. Nothing sinister in it.

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 14 Mar 2014 00:40

Ramana ji as you mentioned :

Here’s how Reuters explains the “pings”:

Communications satellites picked up faint electronic pulses from Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 after it went missing on Saturday, but the signals gave no indication about where the stray jet was heading nor its technical condition, a source close to the investigation said on Thursday.

The “pings” equated to an indication that the aircraft’s maintenance troubleshooting systems were ready to communicate with satellites if needed, but no links were opened because Malaysia Airlines and others had not subscribed to the full troubleshooting service, the source said.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Mar 2014 00:45

However those pings wont tell a/c position right?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Mar 2014 00:56

I now think it was heading towards DG and ran out of fuel and ditched into the ocean.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Mar 2014 00:59

The pings will have a time stamp right. Right there should give folks a radius to search in.