This talk by Motorma fair is interesting. Maybe she is a BRF lurker? She has dont an excellent Pisko analysis at about the 28 min mark.
She claims that she spoke to a Pakistan Army chief (purposely doesnt mention which one) and asked him why they did Kargil (most probably Mushy). For which he apparently replied (paraphrased). "At this point, Pakistan cannot win conventionally against India. At this point India cannot win conventionally against Pakistan. If we do nothing, it means that India has won". She then connects it to terrorism. It is important for a terrorist to conduct periodic attacks. The counter terrorist has two ways of winning: Either kill & capture all the terrorists or let the terrorists live, but make it impossible to conduct terror attacks. If the counter terrorist ensures that the terrorist doesnt not conduct terror attacks, the terrorists have lost. So it is important that terrorists conduct terror attacks repeatedly.
This line of thinking has permeated all of Pakistan Army and has permeated to the very top: Not conducting periodic attacks is an admission of defeat.
Various Indian WKKs on the other hand, approach the problem of (overt -- I include cross border firing and Kargil type attack here -- and covert -- I include terrorism here) attacks as that of pursuit of negotiation leverage: That is, we figure out what Pakistan wants and we negotiate and we give them that. On the other hand, Pakistan is not in the game to negotiate. They are in the game to win: where not conducting attacks means losing.
I am reminded of an excellent tale:
Rahul & the 3rd Bull
Published on August 9, 2014 by vogonpoem
Two days ago, the country was held spellbound by the performance of one man, the you-can-keep-him-down-but-you-cant-keep-him-out Rahul Gandhi. His no-holds-barred, bare-knuckled cage fight in the “Well” of the Parliament left both admirers & critics dumbfounded. Various mainstream media reports, both national and international, went gaga over his performance, like Rahul Takes On Government & Rahul disrupts Parliament. Other fringe media Twitteratti were less than enthusiastic, vide CelebRatty, चाचा चौधरी & PagalPatrakar
If one analyzes this sociopolitical phenomena dispassionately, one would come away with the grudging admission that this was indeed a masterstroke by the Prince. A lot of thought seems to have gone into this Chanakian ploy, as this following tale will illustrate
************* The fable of the 3 Bulls ****************
Once upon a time, there lived three bulls in a ranch. They had plenty to eat & plentier cows to ahem-ahem. One day, the three bulls heard that the rancher was bringing another bull into the ranch. Needless to say, they weren’t too happy with this development:
First Bull: “I’ve been here five years. I’m not giving this new bull any of my 100 cows.”
Second Bull: “I’ve been here three years and have earned my right to 50 cows. I’m keeping all my cows.”
Third Bull: “I’ve only been here a year, and so far, you guys have only let me have 10 cows. I may not be as big as you fellows, but I’m keeping all 10 of my cows.”
Just then an 18-wheeler pulls up in the pasture carrying the biggest bull they’ve ever seen. At 4,700 pounds, each step he takes strains the steel ramp.
First Bull: “I think I can spare a few cows for our new friend.”
Second Bull: “I actually have too many cows to take care of. I can spare a few. I’m certainly not looking for an argument.”
They look over at the third bull and find him pawing the dirt, shaking his horns and snorting.
First Bull: “Son, don’t be foolish — let him have some of your cows and you may live to talk about it.”
Third Bull: “Hell, he can have all my cows. I’m just making sure he knows I’m a bull.”
Bakis are basically in Third bull mode(Wah-ji-Bull-cutlet). They want to remind of their existence.
I think Bakis just crave recognition from Bhaarath. Their ultimate triumph is when Bhaarathiyas recognize them. Their ultimate low is when Bhaarathiyas don't recognize them. Unfortunately, they want to gain recognition from Bhaarath by doing all sorts of dirty stuff. I don't think even gaining the entire Bhaarath for themselves will satisfy the Bakis. There seems to be some vacuum which they are trying to fill using all sorts of useless jihadi ideologies.
I think the vacuum is: deracination. The fundamental disconnect of a person from his roots. The west and middle-east also have this problem. But, atleast, they can hold on to the race and ethnicity. But, in Bakiland, the problem is more compounded because they have not only rejected their culture, civilization, religion, language, ...etc. But, they have also rejected their race and ethnicity.
This creates a rootless person who doesn't know what he wants. He feels a rage towards people he was formerly connected to. Yet, he also feels the need of their acceptance. But, why will the old people accept him? They will accept him, if they become like him or he becomes like them. If he becomes like them, then its a defeat for him. If they become like him, then its his victory.
In short, this is the story of new convert who feels the need to convert the rest of his family to be at peace. Thats why all this rage against Bhaarath. He wants to be part of the family, but he can't comeback without accepting his mistake, so he is trying to forge entire family in his image even if that means few of the family members die in the process.
Over the years, the Ghazwa-e-Hind seems more and more unlikely. In their minds, there are only two options if it fails:
a) Taqiya: deception and lie low until some future chance of success.
b) Accept that the whole thing was a mistake and return.
The problem for them is that any acceptance that Ghazwa failed quickly escalates. The first reaction obviously will be to try for Taqiya. But, then soon, the realization dawns that the whole thing might have been a big mistake. At first, partition will be seen as a mistake. Partition is a rejection of race and ethnicity. And if this line of thought holds then the rejection of culture, civilization, religion and language will also be seen as a mistake. If all of them are mistakes, then why hold on to this separate identity?
So, it seems to me that in their minds, their failure means going back to Hindhuism and accepting that they are also SDRE Bhaarathiyas. If they are successful, then they think they can convert Bhaarathiyas to Islam and make them into TFTA Turks or Arabs(whoever is in favor).
As for Bhaarathiyas, most of the of the Bhaarathiyas have had enough of this Baki nonsense. They just don't want to do anything with it. They'll be happy if they can just sever all ties with it. This is the big problem for the bakis. So, the only way that Bakis manage to stay in Bhaarathiya consciousness is through negotiations, kirket, or war.
These days Bakis don't have the aukaath to do full-scale war. So, they do covert-war. They do covert-war because they believe Bhaarath doesn't have the aukaath to punish them for the covert-war. On the other hand, Bhaarath has the aukaat to punish Bakis in overt-war.
This is quite similar to people who covert to any new ideology. For example, naxalism or commies. Thats why one finds that commies of Bhaarath and bakis become chaddi buddies. Because both of them have this fundamental rejection of Bhaarathiya culture, civilization, language, religion, ...etc.
What is the solution?
Well, what is the solution to naxalism? The same is true for Bakis.
- Vikaas or development for most of the Bhaarathiyas.
- gain control on the ground.
- go after the ideologues, leaders, sponsors, ...etc.
- go after the political backers.
- create counter-propaganda.
- demand that the first step to any negotiations/talks is to abjure violence.
- urge the lower cadres to reject naxalism/jihadism and join the development of Bhaarath.
A full blown war to the finish to take out Bakis would be a nightmare. The best bet is to first quarantine them. Neutralize the venomous leadership and system. Replace it with a Bhaarathiya/Hindhu system and leadership. And in 3 decades, bakis would be cured. This is the only solution.
No other solution seems viable to me.
Once Bhaarath is developed, then all the people in larger Bhaarath will automatically want to be part of the success story. People want to be part of the success story.
All these countries around Bhaarath are existing as separate entities because Bhaarath is poor and weak. If Bhaarath becomes strong and rich. Then, automatically, they will become part of Bhaarath overtly or defacto.
Infact, the problems in middle-east also are because the Bhaarath has remained weak. Starting from Iran to Indonesia and Tibet to Lanka is part of Bhaarath's sphere. If Bhaarath becomes strong, then all these will automatically gravitate towards Bhaarath. If Bhaarath becomes weak, then it creates a vacuum in this entire region and leads to loss of stability.