Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -III

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5620
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RoyG »

Arms from places like Munger will probably be rerouted. There is going to be a new buyer in town with a lot of cash. Modi has still not freed temples from gov clutches yet. Haven't heard about a concrete road map from him yet.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12197
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Pratyush »

Give him tim, in the meantime, let's create awareness about the issue.
Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5128
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Manish_Sharma »

brihaspati wrote:Yogi ji is slated to be sidelined. Thats my hunch.
Brihaspati ji, One big virus that has been instilled in Hindu mind is that economic prosperity first, only then we can do other things, now matter how much I point to them that we were super strong economically when foreigners started to rule, or what economic might china had when they defeated US in korean war...... but, don't know its the power of hypnotic suggestion, lazyness postponement that let some future generation deal with it or what........
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

Is Modi the neo Nehru.....selectively taking out Gandhi from the DIE??? only time will tell....
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Dhananjay wrote:
brihaspati wrote:Yogi ji is slated to be sidelined. Thats my hunch.
Brihaspati ji, One big virus that has been instilled in Hindu mind is that economic prosperity first, only then we can do other things, now matter how much I point to them that we were super strong economically when foreigners started to rule, or what economic might china had when they defeated US in korean war...... but, don't know its the power of hypnotic suggestion, lazyness postponement that let some future generation deal with it or what........
you mean they need to be the moles in the whackamole game to see reality. I partially agree. I do think the older mindset, which largely equates to the older generations - need to "go". But I would bring up the next line of defense. No letting it into uncertain avatar-karenge-traana mode.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Samudragupta wrote:Is Modi the neo Nehru.....selectively taking out Gandhi from the DIE??? only time will tell....
enigma yet - strong suspicion of the potential transformations (and disastrous for the long run) on great MKG himself rather than neo-Nehru.
member_23692
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by member_23692 »

RoyG wrote:At the end of the day, who really knows which group, village, city, community, sect will pull the trigger and start the cascade of events and debates. If I, Ramanaji, Bji, etc. could predict it, then it would never achieve fruition b/c the gov apparatus would've extinguished it. All I'm saying is, just like the wheel on the flag that constantly turns, so will society. I know it may sound a bit callous, but in a country like India where we have a growing abrahamic population, we will be in a constant struggle and people will end up torched in ditches. This is part of waking up from a deep coma and reestablishing yourself in the world. I wouldn't call it maturity because we've been wide awake for 5000 years and asleep for 800.

No matter, being in a state of war gives you a few advantages. It helps you grow sharper and enables you to think outside of the box when it comes to defensive and offensive solutions. Being in a state of "chaos" as westerners like to put it is actually a strength of ours. It can lure our enemies into a false sense of security and helps us mask our long term objectives. (Ramanaji understands this well - Jackal, Brahmin, and Tiger story)

Consitution or no constition our experiences are being collected and are alive all over India. We are waking up now. We operate best under extreme pressure. Let the other side do what it wants. Things will be different for them this time. We don't have a soul or any of that fairy tale BS. We are a hard people dictated by duty and we've been through far worse.
Other than you, Brihispati and six other posters on BRS, what makes you think that "we" are "waking up now". Who is this "we" ? If you mean a majority of Hindus or even a plurality of Hindus or even a sizable minority of Dharmics, what evidence do you have that the "we" are waking up ? The only concrete fact you can possibly point to is Modi's victory or rather that a sizable minority of "Dharmics" voted for him. There is no other fact which points to this "waking up", right, other than a vote for Modi ? But how sure are you that a vote for Modi by this "sizable minority" is really motivated by what you all call "consolidation" and I call "nationalism" ? What makes you think that it is any more a consolidation than major Congress defeats of the past such as post emergency 1977 or Rajiv Gandhi's defeat or major Congress defeats in the States in the past ?

Why is a vote for Modi being looked at as "consolidation", as opposed to just a reaction to a terrible, terrible performance by the Congress govt for 10 years. It is the same thing about Obama. Most people in the US congratulate themselves on Obama's election and tout it as evidence that the American society is trending away from racism and advancing towards integration and tolerance. I think, nothing can be further from the truth. While it is intuitive for shallow thinkers to think that way, I think, George W Bush performed so badly and the Americans got so fedup of him and his party that they even held their nose and voted for "the black guy". Trend away from racism had nothing to with it, as has been evidenced since Obama's election, when all the hate and the hate mongers have come out of the woodwork and completely paralyzed his agenda in the Congress. So, why is a vote for Modi simply a reflection of the unusually, even by Congress standards, disastrous performance by the MMS government as opposed to anything to do with Modi ?

I personally see no strong motivation in anyone other than the "six" of you, towards this "consolidation". And to expect Modi alone to be able to perform miracles towards nationalism and consolidation without any support whatsoever from at least a sizable minority is really a delusion, although a forgivable delusion, because you all want it so badly. I too want it badly, but I am trying to be realistic, despite my heart forcing me to be a "believer" in the "leap of faith".

My prognosis for the future strategic scenario of India is quite bleak. I think Modi is an anomaly and "our current system of government" will not elevate another Modi or even a 50% Modi to this level ever again. And in case of Modi, who miraculously and almost in a lottery like fashion, did get elected, as long as "this system of governance" stays, it will slowly undermine, erode and ultimately corrode every effort Modi is making or will make towards heading in the right direction. The one billion crabs will ultimately pull even Modi down and India will be back in the clutches of the criminals and mafia of the extreme variety, such as Sonia, Mayawati, Mulayam, Lalu, Karuna, Y Rajashekhara Reddy, Mamata (who is not a mafia, just a fascist) and people of their ilk or perhaps people of even worst disposition. Our civilization will keep shrinking, our territory will keep shrinking and our population vis-a-vis the Islamists will keep shrinking and we will join the ranks of the many peoples and civilizations to perish. Only, in our case, it will be a first for a civilization so large, so full of heritage, so prominent to perish. But it will gradually perish, as it has been doing for the past 1000 years. We are still on the same continuum, the same trendline as the last 1000 years, except that with the passage of every minute, the trend line downwards becomes steeper and steeper and our decline accelerates. If we do not change our system of governance, which, I predict will even stymie a person like Modi, I give us another 100 years max, before we too become a Malaysia, or an Indonesia.

Imagine, on the other hand, what a Modi can do under a different system of governance ? A more "indic" or "dharmic" system of governance. He could be another Porus, or Chandragupta or Ashoka or Prithviraj or Maharana Pratap or Shivaji. Maybe ?? Imagine......
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

rsangram wrote: Imagine, on the other hand, what a Modi can do under a different system of governance ? A more "indic" or "dharmic" system of governance. He could be another Porus, or Chandragupta or Ashoka or Prithviraj or Maharana Pratap or Shivaji. Maybe ?? Imagine......
Tell me your idea of Indic/Dharmic system... under modern Westphallian concept of nationhood....Are you talking of Hindu Republic? As much as i know Only Iran is successful to Bring the Persian Nationalism on the forefront in the guise of Islamic Republic and Vilayat-E- Fiqa....
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12197
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Pratyush »

RS, I don't know abut the others. But I am beginning to see that the tolerant older people are now speaking of arming & organizing themselves.

Modi vote is a reaction to the INC rule over the last 10 years. Granted. But not the way you think it to be, at least not in my circle.

BTW, I am the peacenik, in my circle. You cannot even begin to imagine what is just under the surface at the moment. Just spend some time in villages and away from the MSM for a little while and you will see. Just because Bengal & Bihar are currently not in control dose-not mean that cannot be brought in control.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Oh! there are six already? who are they?!!! :P
rsangram ji, you can do a very useful exercise. Just travel on foot in some of the rural areas. Without any "city/well-to-do" trappings. By the way, even "6" is not a bad number. Some of the "great movements" of the world apparently started with even less.
kapilrdave
BRFite
Posts: 1566
Joined: 17 Nov 2008 13:10

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by kapilrdave »

RS ji, Param Pujya Hedgevar ji started alone. Brought 4 children and formed the first Shakha. People laughed at him then. And the rest is the history....

Why don't you commit yourself to become the 7th? People out there are willing to listen to you if you care to educate them. The last one year has illuminated and ignited millions of Hindus. I did my bit with what little I could manage to do. I always thought that Hindus are ignorant about facts and too lazy in moving their a**. I was pleasantly surprised that I was wrong. They are just uninformed. They are all ears If someone is willing to inform them.

My prognosis to India's future strategic scenario is completely opposite to yours. I believe that NM will rule as PM for at least next 15 years (ofcourse if he survives that long). The next election will be even bigger win. After that NM will be the new benchmark for all future PMs. In these 15 years the history will be re-written and the newer generation will not buy sickular BS. There will be clear view of who is really secular and who is communal. There will be no Pakistan or it will be insignificant. There will be only two political parties, one supporting Hindus and other to muslims. You may argue that same is the situation today, but it is subtle and covert today. In future it will be all open. Hindus will have clear choice. VHP will focus only on reconversion and not on barging in collages on VD. The question is, what you can do for it (this 'you' is not you in particular). Remember, धर्मो रक्षति रक्षितः

All this is not wishful thinking for me. I do believe so.

Regarding your earlier question "Who will do this?", well, this is Kalyug. And in Kalyug the power of unity rules - संघ शक्ति कलो युगे. So the consolidated Hindus will do it for themselves. The wheels have already started moving towards Hindu consolidation. What we saw in election was just the beginning. Tathastu.
vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5836
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by vishvak »

brihaspati wrote:Oh! there are six already? who are they?!!! :P
rsangram ji, you can do a very useful exercise. Just travel on foot in some of the rural areas. Without any "city/well-to-do" trappings. By the way, even "6" is not a bad number. Some of the "great movements" of the world apparently started with even less.
Reminds of panch-pyaare initiated by guru shri Govind Singh ji.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

vishvak wrote: Reminds of panch-pyaare initiated by guru shri Govind Singh ji.
The five carries a special meaning in "Hindu" tradition. Even Buddha couldnt escape the significance of the "5". The one "initiator/guru" and "five" first initiated theme runs even in "panchaanan" and Pandavas. :P
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Prem »

brihaspati wrote:
vishvak wrote: Reminds of panch-pyaare initiated by guru shri Govind Singh ji.
The five carries a special meaning in "Hindu" tradition. Even Buddha couldnt escape the significance of the "5". The one "initiator/guru" and "five" first initiated theme runs even in "panchaanan" and Pandavas. :P
5 elements & 5 Indriyas Plus the Big Bappu Boss.
Together They do make fine Punch .
Samudragupta
BRFite
Posts: 625
Joined: 12 Nov 2010 23:49
Location: Some place in the sphere

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Samudragupta »

X-post
Philip wrote:The British Empire strikes back,the neo-Imperialists and neo-colonialists are returning in full force after a brief interval of a fe decades,where for 500+ years the Europeans held Asia in slavery and thralldom.India has to factor in the revanchist dsigns of the neo-imperialists in its strategic defence and security policy and diversify its energy imports from the Gulf just as China is doing,making huge $400B deals with Russia.The time is ripe with Pres. Putin's visit. The Hindu also had an article today about building up energy reserves in major depots when prices are low.

[/b]Protests erupt over British decision to open military base in Bahrain [/b]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... hrain.html
Human rights groups say Britain is being rewarded by the Gulf state's monarchy for its silence over political jailings
The protest in Sitra on Saturday night was broken up by police firing tear gas, but there were no reported injuries. Photo: EPA/MAZEN MAHDI

Richard Spencer
By Richard Spencer, Manama

2:43PM GMT 07 Dec 2014
Britain’s decision to open a major naval base in Bahrain despite concerns over the country’s human rights record has been met with protests by opposition groups and human rights activists.
Hundreds of protesters were filmed marching through the town of Sitra, a Shia opposition stronghold, calling for the removal of the British ambassador, Iain Lindsay, after the decision was announced.

Activists said Bahrain’s decision to largely fund the base was a “reward” for Britain’s recent silence over the jailing of opponents to the Sunni monarchy.

International groups also objected to the decision. “As Bahrain pursues brutal crackdown, what better time for UK to build military base there?” said Kenneth Roth, Human Rights Watch’s executive director.

The decision to reopen Britain’s first permanent base “East of Suez” since the drawdown of Empire was announced by Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue, a conference organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, on Saturday.

Related Articles
Britain returns 'East of Suez' with permanent Royal Navy base in Gulf
06 Dec 2014
Britain to open new military base in Bahrain in fight against Isil
06 Dec 2014
Hammond: Bahrain base to 'tackle the security threats'
06 Dec 2014

He said Britain would have to take up a greater role in helping Middle East states remain stable as the United States “pivoted” towards the Asia-Pacific region. Britain pulled its military out of the Gulf in 1971, a decision that the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, said led to 40 years of “short-termist” thinking about its policy in the Middle East.

A protester in Sitra island holds a placard carrying a picture of Iain Lindesy, ambassador of the UK to Bahrain (EPA/MAZEN MAHDI)

The base at Port Mina Salman, which will be expanded to be a permanent facility for Britain’s Royal Navy, including its new aircraft carriers, will be largely funded by Bahrain.

The monarchy in 2011 violently repressed a pro-democracy opposition movement led by the country’s Shia majority, and continues to jail human rights campaigners. It accuses them of supporting terrorism and being backed by Iran, but Zainab al-Khawaja, the daughter of a Shia activist serving a life sentence for his part in the 2011 uprising, was handed a three-year jail term only on Thursday for ripping up a picture of King Hamad.

The protest in Sitra on Saturday night was broken up by police firing tear gas, but there were no reported injuries.

Video showed a line of men and women - segregated - marching through the streets holding Bahraini flags and a photograph of Mr Lindsay with a gag over his mouth saying: “Shut up Iain Lindsay”.

The British ambassador to Bahrain at the time of the uprising, James Bowden, fell foul of government supporters for meeting opposition leaders. Mr Lindsay has been vilified by those same opposition groups for his perceived support for the government.

Nabeel Rajab, head of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, who is currently on bail for posting “offensive tweets”, said Mr Lindsay’s statements sounded as if they came from the government itself.

He contrasted Britain’s role with that of the United States, which also maintains a major base for its Fifth Fleet in Bahrain but which has been overtly critical of the country’s rulers, including over the jailing of Ms Khawaja.

In a major diplomatic rift, the authorities ordered the US’s assistant secretary of state for human rights, Tom Malinowski, to leave the country in July after he met the leader of the opposition Wefaq party.

“We have been struggling for many years and the British government has always taken the side of the oppressive regime and all the dictators in the Gulf region,” Mr Rajab said.

The House of Commons foreign affairs select committee criticised Britain’s attitude to Bahrain in a report last month. “We see little or no evidence that Bahrain has made enough progress in implementing political reform and safeguarding human rights, and we believe that the FCO should have bitten the bullet and designated Bahrain as a country of concern,” it concluded.

However, senior officials in Bahrain pointed to last month’s election, which recorded a voter turn-out of 52 per cent despite an opposition boycott. One official close to the Crown Prince claimed to The Telegraph that increasing number of Shia were supporting the “reform process” which he was overseeing.
This will have implications for India... West has always maintained the presence in that theater..starting with the Greeks then Rome....once they have moved out of the place it resulted in reactionary ideologies....

The tussle to control these lands between Byzantine and Persia resulted in the rise of the Islam 1.0 under prophet of Islam....

The tussle to control these lands between the Franks and the Turks resulted in the rise of Islam 2.0 under the Ottomans...

Now the in this latest round......

The strategic competition between Iran and US resulted in the rise of Islam 3.0 under ISIS....

Its not only the British but the French also are strengthening their presence in the region....
SRoy
BRFite
Posts: 1938
Joined: 15 Jul 2005 06:45
Location: Kolkata
Contact:

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by SRoy »

brihaspati wrote:Oh! there are six already? who are they?!!! :P
rsangram ji, you can do a very useful exercise. Just travel on foot in some of the rural areas. Without any "city/well-to-do" trappings. By the way, even "6" is not a bad number. Some of the "great movements" of the world apparently started with even less.
Seems like many of us need to come out of lurk mode and post often :)
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

The best outcome will be that all the "seculars" including Islamists come together to keep BJP out of power in J&K. Its most useful to have all the stakeholders clearly forced to choose sides. It also deals a body blow to agitprop on peaceful coexistence, and a peaceful future trajectory. Clarity is the need of the hour.
Sudip
BRFite
Posts: 378
Joined: 28 Oct 2008 05:42
Location: Paikhana

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Sudip »

Rearranging the Subcontinent by Robert D Kaplan
What would a terminally diseased Pakistani state come to look like? It might see more feisty regionalism in the southern provinces of Balochistan and Sind, whose leaders told me on a trip through the area some years ago that they would prefer over time a closer relationship with New Delhi than with Islamabad. These are people who never accepted a strong Pakistani state to begin with and always advocated more federalism. With Balochistan and Sind moving closer to India, and the Afghanistan-Pakistan Pashtun border area in permanent disarray because of turmoil inside Afghanistan according to such a scenario, then a rump state of Greater Punjab might begin to emerge — again, denied for years by officials up until the point that it is undeniable.
Image

Happy Christmas folks
Last edited by Sudip on 25 Dec 2014 10:34, edited 1 time in total.
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RamaY »

^ what's up with Bihar?
deejay
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4024
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by deejay »

@RamaY: My thoughts exactly.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by ramana »

RamaY wrote:^ what's up with Bihar?
Block Ganga maa.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by ramana »

So that pentagon gambit for breaking TSP.

They want some map readjustment.

Now understand Nikamma's hunkar.
devesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5129
Joined: 17 Feb 2011 03:27

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

brihaspati wrote:The best outcome will be that all the "seculars" including Islamists come together to keep BJP out of power in J&K. Its most useful to have all the stakeholders clearly forced to choose sides. It also deals a body blow to agitprop on peaceful coexistence, and a peaceful future trajectory. Clarity is the need of the hour.
But if they were all "elected" democratically, the "unity" of Islam will be a great propaganda tool for the Ummah. Even in terms of international legitimacy, this "united" majority could be used to discredit India's and Hindus' stance on Jammu & Kashmir. As long as they play these "democratic" games, our hoped for military removal of Jihadi roots is unlikely to happen. Don't you think it's better to push the Islamics into "desperation" so they prematurely launch a Jihad? Or do you think they are too clever to fall for that?
fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4283
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by fanne »

Naah I believe why he showing Bihar is because Maculay history tells that most important 'HIndu' empires that controlled north Nadia and present tsp but did not include south sprang out of Bihar.

I believe that is wrong. The empire of chandragupta vikramaditya out of indore for example was pan Indian. But then the Maculay history has that chandragupta 2 of gupta dynasty is same as this chandragupta. They solved the small problem of his capital being in PAtna or INdore was solved that he had both capitals!!
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RamaY »

ramana wrote:So that pentagon gambit for breaking TSP.

They want some map readjustment.

Now understand Nikamma's hunkar.
I said this in one of Modi threads. Odissa-Bihar-Nepal (Jagannath-Pasupatinath belt) has very high potential & must be watched. It has two three parallel power lines (Hindu, Buddhist & Commie).
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RamaY »

India should learn from secular, modern and liberal USA.

Can India but that narrow stretch between Tajakistan & PoK from Taliban/Afghanistan? Can India recapture PoK back?

That itself will result in Baloch/Sindh getting out of Pakjabi control. Then in retaliation, Pakjabi will merge with Talibani-Afghanistan.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

devesh wrote: But if they were all "elected" democratically, the "unity" of Islam will be a great propaganda tool for the Ummah. Even in terms of international legitimacy, this "united" majority could be used to discredit India's and Hindus' stance on Jammu & Kashmir. As long as they play these "democratic" games, our hoped for military removal of Jihadi roots is unlikely to happen. Don't you think it's better to push the Islamics into "desperation" so they prematurely launch a Jihad? Or do you think they are too clever to fall for that?
I had the existing electoral profile in mind. All the "seculars" means all the Islamists - overt/covert+INC. Think of the equations:
BJP+PDP : compromises on 370/KP/Ladakh/Pakistan/sharia/separatism for BJP, not from PDP. A very unstable and short gov, quick re-election.
BJP+NC: compromises on 370/KP/Ladakh/Pakistan/sharia/separatism for BJP, not from NC as NC can no longer compromise on this given PDP will gain more from valley jihadi society.
BJP+INC: :mrgreen:
PDP+NC+INC: explosive

they will need to start their jihad the earlier in the 4th combo.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

fanne wrote:Naah I believe why he showing Bihar is because Maculay history tells that most important 'HIndu' empires that controlled north Nadia and present tsp but did not include south sprang out of Bihar.

I believe that is wrong. The empire of chandragupta vikramaditya out of indore for example was pan Indian. But then the Maculay history has that chandragupta 2 of gupta dynasty is same as this chandragupta. They solved the small problem of his capital being in PAtna or INdore was solved that he had both capitals!!
But he includes then BD (if we assume identity of colours with India means same sovereign unit) inside India. A commie/Buddhist enclave?
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Oh, sorry: he means new nations. But that still is peculiar for Bihar-unless he is thinking of the Nepal-Commie-Buddhist-Islamist enclave.
devesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5129
Joined: 17 Feb 2011 03:27

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

who the f*** does Kaplan think he is? does he really believe Bihar will be taken from India and the people of India will sit quiet and do nothing?
abhischekcc
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4277
Joined: 12 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: If I can’t move the gods, I’ll stir up hell
Contact:

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by abhischekcc »

Kaplan is usually a very perceptive commentator, but I am surprised at this article - looks like written by somebody of much lesser calibre. It could be that since Kaplan is not an expert on Indian history, and because he had to read up on the region in a hurry, he has not thought through his points thoroughly.
brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

BD rapidly clearing up the stage for Islamists spreading their networks again at ground level. Most of the opposition is moving into jihadi groups influence. The IS/AQ/ Paki combo or coordination is likely to make solid planting all around the immediate interior of the border from BD side. There is a shift to pro-IS sentiments among the educated urban Muslim youth as is to be expected. Whats happening on the western borders is a diversion.
panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3781
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by panduranghari »

ramana wrote:So that pentagon gambit for breaking TSP.

They want some map readjustment.

Now understand Nikamma's hunkar.
I wish I could download your brain on to an HDD or even directly into my own. You connect the dots so darn well.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by ramana »

panduranghari wrote:
ramana wrote:So that pentagon gambit for breaking TSP.

They want some map readjustment.

Now understand Nikamma's hunkar.
I wish I could download your brain on to an HDD or even directly into my own. You connect the dots so darn well.

No big deal.

Just let the mind free and it will see clearly.
Even at work I can see complex patterns and reduce them to core issues.
I tell them same thing.

Give the right brain a chance to be itself and not stuck on demanding proof(left brain) etc. which can be sought post facto...
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by ramana »

One principle in International Relations since the end of Napoleonic wars is that a country that gets something has to give up something valuable in order to keep the old top dogs on the top.
Talleyrand came up with the idea that Kissinger mamu learnt very well.
That's his key.
So Kaplan is also chanting the mantra. They know TSP is breaking up. They want India to break up also.

Watch for Bihar and Bengal netas going postal....

UPA was idiots to allow Calcutta and Hyderabad consulates....

See AP break up in this light.
krishna_krishna
BRFite
Posts: 917
Joined: 23 Oct 2006 04:14

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by krishna_krishna »

Very deep thinking, I would add land swap with BD as one of the points and if Bihar and BD are gone , its anyones guess what happens to NE. And then when you slice from south (ROL bites into TN and Kerala) you have pretty much landlocked country with nothing left.
RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5620
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RoyG »

Birhaspatiji is right. Some territory will have to be lost. Islam is going back to its roots. There will be two varieties: 1) true form will cocoon itself 2) Sufi form. The Sufi form will spread without anyone noticing and prepare the ground for the blooming of the true form.

Pakistan breaking up will be like letting the cancer metastasize. Many people will begin cruising across the border. The groundwork has already been started in Bangladesh.

Modi-Doval combo understand this but are powerless. What can they really do? A new movement will have to spring up in the country side and slowly liberate district after district. They will have to be very kautilyan in their approach and do the dirty work. Perhaps the intelligence services may cultivate it seeing as how it could be a very effective way of holding territory while giving the option of deniability to the government. The only problem is how do you avoid conflict between the two. This is the key.
Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2649
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Jarita »

RoyG wrote:Birhaspatiji is right. Some territory will have to be lost. Islam is going back to its roots. There will be two varieties: 1) true form will cocoon itself 2) Sufi form. The Sufi form will spread without anyone noticing and prepare the ground for the blooming of the true form.

Pakistan breaking up will be like letting the cancer metastasize. Many people will begin cruising across the border. The groundwork has already been started in Bangladesh.

Modi-Doval combo understand this but are powerless. What can they really do? A new movement will have to spring up in the country side and slowly liberate district after district. They will have to be very kautilyan in their approach and do the dirty work. Perhaps the intelligence services may cultivate it seeing as how it could be a very effective way of holding territory while giving the option of deniability to the government. The only problem is how do you avoid conflict between the two. This is the key.

Only modern Indians would accept territory loss as a scenario and just call it logical and rational thinking. This has to become a hard constraint fr us
RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5620
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RoyG »

If there is no stopping of the demographic invasion in the NE and other parts of India, we WILL lose them. This has nothing to do with modern anything. This is common sense.
Avarachan
BRFite
Posts: 567
Joined: 04 Jul 2006 21:06

Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Avarachan »

RoyG wrote:Birhaspatiji is right. Some territory will have to be lost. Islam is going back to its roots. There will be two varieties: 1) true form will cocoon itself 2) Sufi form. The Sufi form will spread without anyone noticing and prepare the ground for the blooming of the true form.
I don't agree with this. Among the young educated Muslims I know, many are becoming atheists. I have many Egyptian Christian (Coptic Orthodox) friends, and they say that the same is happening in Egypt. The biggest trend in the Middle East--the cultural heartland of Islam--is that people are turning away from strict Islam. The people have seen its face, and they don't like it. This is very obvious in Egypt and Syria.

India cannot afford to lose any territory. If that process starts, India could end up losing its entire eastern coast. That would have enormous strategic consequences.

Regarding the EJ's, they can be dealt with. (I won't go into details here.) Nonetheless, just think: the U.S. is their homeland. They enjoy every possible home-turf advantage. And yet, they are in decline there. This is well known. They can be beaten.

1) As I've said repeatedly, the Indian government should cut off the EJ's funding. This is their oxygen.
2) Also, the truth about Unkil and Aunty-stan's history should be told (genocide, colonialism, predatory capitalism, etc.).
3) Indians should support (financially, etc.) Indic scholarship/art.
4) The Indian economy should flourish in a balanced, healthy way. There should be social/economic opportunity.

Bharat--not her enemies--is getting stronger. By the way, I'm an Indian Orthodox Christian.
Post Reply