Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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panduranghari
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by panduranghari »

ramana wrote: In 1971 they (Henry Kissinger) were egging China to attack India.
Why was Kissinger so anti Hindus? He was a effing jew and India gave refuge to jews. I still dont get his hatred for India. Calling it realpolitik is facetitious. Pox on him and his future generations.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ramana »

Gautam, Shani is ruling and causes loss of mathi or mind. China logically would not place themselves in this position normally.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Iyersan »

:wink: Total silence in Han media today
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by g.sarkar »

ramana wrote:Gautam, Shani is ruling and causes loss of mathi or mind. China logically would not place themselves in this position normally.
Which house is China's Saturn in? Do you have the time so that I can look at the birth chart? But maybe this OT in this thread.
Gautam
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Philip »

XI Gins wants a clear "victory" to be brandished at the congress,where like the would-be Ottoman sultan,Erdogan,he wants to wield absolute power like Chairman Mao.But even Mao had v.wise colleagues,as tall as him in the form of Chou-en-Lai and disgraced Lin Biao. This latter-day Mao,is not happy with being tyrant of Chin,he wants a win everywhere on the planet.Like Orwell's Big Brother,China rewrities history,produces fake maps,and brainwashes its Godless people into nothing more than goosestepping zombies,soldier ants to wage war across the world.

The biggest threat to China's ambitions is not the US of Europe or Russia,but India because of its geography.population,eco and mil strength ,ancient culture and source of sev. religions especially Buddhism,revered all across Asia.. China has been waiting for a century to see its mil forces penetrate right into the Gulf/ME,right upto the Levant and waters of the Meditt. thus securing its oil and from that springboard,dominate exercise its will upon Europe from the south and Africa from the north. Russia inits view can be reduced to a northern "Arctic" power,which will never be able to gain any warm water ports for its navy,without which it will not be able; to dominate international trade and global affairs unlike the US and RN in the past,imperial powers. The neo-Imperial China of Xi Gins' dreams has a massive stumbling block of a Himalayan sized boulder in its shoe called "India". This boulder not only can checkmate China in the mountains but also interdict and destroy its shipping in the IOR. Therefore ,Xi GIns hopes that a swift lesson ,ot threat of a lesson,will make us blink and kowtow to the glorious emperor of modern China,which he can wave in the face of his rivals -whom he's already started purging,at the Gleat Horror of the People.

Predictions;
After the 2016 solar eclipse ,China will be at loggerheads with neighbours,small skirmishes,and poss. of war in 2020. Here;s just one prediction.The forthcoming total solar eclipse is a malefic event,toal over the US.Trump-watch out! China will seize the opportunity of a US in crisis.

https://astrologicalmusings.com/foundat ... s-in-2016/
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by sum »

Iyersan wrote::wink: Total silence in Han media today
Xinhua has actually praised Modi. Downhill skiing started or just a good cop/bad cop ongoing?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...v ... 778241.cms

BEIJING: China is giving signs of lowering its belligerence towards India ahead of the visit of Ajit Doval, the National Security Adviser, who will meet Chinese president Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders on Thursday and Friday.
China's official news agency, Xinhua, caused a surprise praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi's management of the Indian economy and emphasising the need for enhancing business relations between the two countries.
This is seen as a signal from the top leadership that any possibility of a military conflict should be avoided because India is an important market for Chinese business.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

or a little more caution than usual with a visiting dignitary. We will know by the time he returns.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pralay »

guys, please keep out the astrology crap from this thread.
Its contaminates the reasoning and logic and the belief in astrology is one of the reasons why bharatvarsh was taken over of foreign powers.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Singha »

astrology and a sense of innate fatalism - two old failings.

only the sword and capabilities talk, rest is finding rationales for failure or inaction.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Philip »

Someone asked...take it with a pinch of salt. But let me tell you that the Chinese are exceptionally superstitious.Feng Shui rules like our Vastu.In Hong Kong,they deliberately designed one of their bank blgs which overlooked the Brit. Gov's mansion,to give it bad vibes.Despite official bans on superstition,it thr1ves.Good time for our soothsayers to predict "dire tidings" for China! :rotfl:
Superstition flourishes as Chinese officials look to soothsayers amid uncertain times
Officials look to fortune-tellers to foresee their fate as the party cracks down on corruption

Some time last year, a group of middle-ranking government officials gathered for a dinner in a private room in a Beijing restaurant, all slightly nervous but keen with anticipation.
Their guest of honour was a Buddhist master who would predict their fortunes.
The master looked around the room and into the eyes of each of the dozen or so attendees, according to one of those present, who spoke on condition of anonymity as officials and Communist Party members are not supposed to believe in "superstition".
"He picked people out depending on the shape of their eyes and told them whether they had been touched by luck or misfortune," said the source, a government official with ties to the leadership.

A few months later, one of the people present whose eyes told of misfortune to come was under investigation for abuse of power, the source said.
"At times like this with so much uncertainty, lots of us are looking for ways to foresee our fortunes," the source said, declining to name the master, fearing he might be arrested.
Chinese people, especially the country's leaders, have a long tradition of putting their faith in soothsaying and geomancy, looking for answers in times of doubt, need and chaos.
The practice has grown more risky amid a sweeping crackdown on deep-seated corruption launched by President Xi Jinping upon assuming power in late 2012, in which dozens of senior officials have been imprisoned and put under probe.
June's announcement of the jailing of the once-powerful former security chief Zhou Yongkang on graft charges included the accusation he leaked undisclosed state secrets to a fortune-teller and healer called Cao Yongzheng, known as the "Xinjiang sage" after the far western region where he grew up.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies ... cials-look
Zhou was not allowed to appear in public to defend himself. It was not clear if he had a lawyer.
According to mainland media reports, a former senior colleague of Zhou's, Li Chuncheng , had business and personal ties with Cao in Sichuan province, where Zhou and Li were once senior officials, via media companies Cao either owned or worked at.
Li also publicly supported Cao's daughter, a musical theatre director, according to the Southern Weekend, a respected weekly with a track record of covering sensitive stories.
Li was later accused by the party of abusing his position to engage in "feudalistic and superstitious acts", without further elaboration. He has also not been allowed to defend himself publicly. He went on trial in April, but no verdict has been announced.
Cao's whereabouts - and whether he is in custody - are not known. Li's or Cao's family members could not be reached.
The founder of modern China, Mao Zedong , banned fortune telling and superstition after the 1949 revolution, but the occult has made a comeback since the still officially atheist country embraced economic reforms and began opening up in the late 1970s.

"In China, Mao Zedong was once revered as a god and communism was tantamount to a religion," a retired party official said, requesting anonymity to avoid repercussions for speaking to foreign media without authorisation.
"But Mao's death and the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976 left a spiritual vacuum. Today, many party, government and military officials are lost and resort to consulting fortune-tellers because they want to know if they will go 'up' [the political ladder] or go 'in' [to prison]."
Underground belief in occult practices such as sorcery and prophecy has spread widely enough among Communist Party officials for state media to feel compelled in recent years to issue numerous warnings about its dangers.
"Fake masters and false miracle workers have reached the highest levels," the Guangming Daily, an official party outlet, warned in late 2013.
The party also fears pronouncements from sages either forecasting its demise or spreading panic among the public with predictions of disaster.
Even so, some of what had been considered superstition by the party in its communist heyday - such as feng shui, or geomancy - has enjoyed a resurgence of official support, according to sources with ties to the leadership and feng shui masters.
Wu Zhongmin, a professor at the Central Party School, which trains rising officials, told The Beijing News last year that corruption and superstition often went together, as officials tried to placate the gods to forgive their crimes. "They must know that 'heaven sees all', but they can't restrain themselves," Wu said.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.

One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Aaryan »

ramana wrote:Creating hashtag #IndiaBoycottChineseGoods on Twitter
Cant agree more with the hashtag but one of my main concern is how can we ask citizens to boycott Chinese products when projects worth thousands of crores are being allotted to Chinese firms by GOI.. Be it building statue of Sardar Patel or construction of metro in many cities.. I remember Arun Shourie as telecom minister flagged use of Chinese equipment by BSNL, now they are back with a bang. The modems provided by BSNL are all Chinese and these are just few examples. Once this crisis is over it will be business as usual, Chinese companies will be allotted big projects and will earn hundred of crores. Any common mango will ask why should I pay 30K for a phone by Korean company when I get much better features at 25K by Chinese company specially when my Govt is paying Hundreds and Thousands of crores to Chinese firms..
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by TKiran »

There are some phenomenon which can't be explained by rationality.

The more you understand irrationality, the more wise you are.

In fact​, in this world there is more irrationality than rationality.

For example, light is real and rational. Darkness is lack of light. But there's more darkness than light can annihilate. The more the light, the less the darkness.

Similarly, the more the gnana (rational and real) the less agnana. More and more we understand the abstract things, the more we get enlightened, and take the correct actions. Astrology is a science (statistical) which explains many irrational things. Ignoring astrology by saying that it's nonsense, you miss a chance to understand irrationality.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Iyersan »

schinnas wrote:Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.

One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
Saar!!!!! Tears in my eyes!!! link please saar
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by DrRatnadip »

http://m.indiatoday.in/lite/story/dokla ... 11909.html

Doklam standoff: Indian Air Force chief says ready for any eventuality


India explores diplomatic options to resolve the stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in the Doklam plateau in Bhutan, the Indian Air Force is ready for any eventuality.

Chief of Indian Air Force Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa in an exclusive interview to Indian Today said, "We are ready for any eventuality. The stand-off on the ground continues, diplomatic options are being explored".

Indian and Chinese troops are engaged in a face-off since June 6 when Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) moved into Doklam Plateau - claimed by both Bhutan and China - demolished bunkers and took away Bhutanese soldiers at gunpoint. India is treaty bound to help Bhutan. The Indian Army moved into Doklam to stop the Chinese from building a road through the disputed area.

Although short on fighters the Indian Air Force is prepared for a "full spectrum" - or a two-front war. "For a full-spectrum war we need a certain number of squadrons which we don't have immediately. The government," he said is "aware of the shortage."
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by g.sarkar »

Aaryan wrote:
ramana wrote:Creating hashtag #IndiaBoycottChineseGoods on Twitter
Cant agree more with the hashtag but one of my main concern is how can we ask citizens to boycott Chinese products when projects worth thousands of crores are being allotted to Chinese firms by GOI.. Be it building statue of Sardar Patel or construction of metro in many cities.. I remember Arun Shourie as telecom minister flagged use of Chinese equipment by BSNL, now they are back with a bang. The modems provided by BSNL are all Chinese and these are just few examples. Once this crisis is over it will be business as usual, Chinese companies will be allotted big projects and will earn hundred of crores. Any common mango will ask why should I pay 30K for a phone by Korean company when I get much better features at 25K by Chinese company specially when my Govt is paying Hundreds and Thousands of crores to Chinese firms..
It is a matter of political will. Imports for Government permitted projects can be tied up in endless inspections, clarifications, lab certifications etc. Japan and China have mastered this and we can copy this model. For Chinese imports to Mango people, we have the principles evolved by Gandhiji. Boycott of cotton from mills of Manchester was effective even when it was done under British rule. Sufficient Mangoes were willing to buy expensive khadi and boycott UK cloth.
Gautam
Last edited by g.sarkar on 27 Jul 2017 14:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

g.sarkar wrote:
http://www.dailyo.in/politics/ajit-dova ... 18605.html
Doklam standoff: Ajit Doval faces trial by fire in China
This will be the NSA's most delicate assignment by far.
......
Gautam
More than the people, it is the Indian press which has perfected dhoti shivering.

No, Doval does not face trial by fire. When his boss can send birthday wishes to the Chinese president, with them threatening us left and right, what pressure does Doval have?

If we believe the Chinese press which says Doval is the "main schemer", well the "schemer" now knows his scheme has worked.

The Chinese can huff and puff, for all we care. We will take them seriously, when they put some division or too ready for action at LAC.
Last edited by nam on 27 Jul 2017 14:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pralay »

schinnas wrote:Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.
One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
Please use the nukkad thread for checking what the starts say.
Shame on you for making false claims about Shivaji Maharaj. He fought majority of the battles on night of New Moon "Amawasya" which is always bad time in astrology.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by g.sarkar »

Namji,
I do not believe the Indian press is shivering in their dhoti or langot or any other private part. They have been purchased by the Chinese and are doing their bidding by publishing stuff that show that India can not or will not fight under any circumstance.
Gautam
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

pralay wrote:
schinnas wrote:Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.
One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
Please use the nukkad thread for checking what the starts say.
Shame on you for making false claims about Shivaji Maharaj. He fought majority of the battles on night of New Moon "Amawasya" which is always bad time in astrology.
Amawasya is not a bad time for war or spiritual practices. Besides, it ensures perfect darkness (an element of surprise those days), but that is OT.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by g.sarkar »

pralay wrote:
schinnas wrote:Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.
One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
Please use the nukkad thread for checking what the starts say.
Shame on you for making false claims about Shivaji Maharaj. He fought majority of the battles on night of New Moon "Amawasya" which is always bad time in astrology.
Pralayji,
Your comment on Amavasya being universally inauspicious is not correct. But as mentioned by others this is OT, so this is my last comment on this topic.
Gautam
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

Iyersan wrote:
schinnas wrote:Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.

One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
Saar!!!!! Tears in my eyes!!! link please saar
This prediction of economic issues and war with china was posted by the astrologer 8 or 9 months ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcCRXW47dGA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPNlYa6GO0Y

The below prediction (outcome of war or confrontation) was posted about a week ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVVAN4g1lGQ

I am going to stop posts related to astrology / predictions in this thread due to requests from other members and to ensure that the focus of the thread stays with what we can rationally analyze.. posting the above video because you asked for it.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by jagga »

Article provides Bhutanese point of view
More than the Doklam issue, Bhutan worried about hydropower projects and trade
Some people say that Bhutan is an Indian ‘protectorate,’ which is not only an inaccurate assessment, but shows a lack of understanding of the increasingly complex and diversified nature of the relationship between the two countries.
Tenzing Lamsang is the Editor of The Bhutanese, a private newspaper in Thimphu, Bhutan. He tweets @TenzingLamsang and the newspaper at @thebhutanese
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Iyersan »

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 761_1.html
India-China border row may lead to war, says US expert
A US expert has said that the ongoing border dispute between the Indian and Chinese troops at Dokhlam in the Sikkim sector could lead to a war.

"Yes I do, and I don't say that lightly," Jeff M. Smith, a scholar at the American Foreign Policy Council, told the New York Times when he was asked whether he thought the India-China stand-off could spiral into war.

"Both sides have taken hardline positions that make it difficult to back down. The messaging is eerily similar," Smith said, referring to the countries' 1962 war that was also over border disputes.

Doklam, at the tri-junction of China, India, and Bhutan, holds strategic importance for all three.

The border row between the two countries was triggered in June when the Indian Army stopped a road construction by Chinese troops in Doklam.

China has told India repeatedly to withdraw troops from Doklam, which it calls as its own territory. New Delhi has said that troops from both sides should withdraw for a dialogue as Doklam belongs to its ally Bhutan.

Bhutan, a Himalayan nation that has no diplomatic ties with China, also protested against the road construction by Chinese troops.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SSridhar »

nam wrote:
g.sarkar wrote: http://www.dailyo.in/politics/ajit-dova ... 18605.html
Doklam standoff: Ajit Doval faces trial by fire in China
More than the people, it is the Indian press which has perfected dhoti shivering.
I was livid when I read that headline. Then I saw that it was no some foolish editor who gave caption to the story and is in fact a statement plucked from the article itself.

This guy Rajeev Sharma indeed made a fool of himself. But, reading the rest of the article I felt that he unfortunately made a wrong choice of words and that got stuck. This is how our media men & women make unrealistic claims knowingly and unknowingly.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by hanumadu »

Aaryan wrote:
ramana wrote:Creating hashtag #IndiaBoycottChineseGoods on Twitter
Cant agree more with the hashtag but one of my main concern is how can we ask citizens to boycott Chinese products when projects worth thousands of crores are being allotted to Chinese firms by GOI.. Be it building statue of Sardar Patel or construction of metro in many cities.. I remember Arun Shourie as telecom minister flagged use of Chinese equipment by BSNL, now they are back with a bang. The modems provided by BSNL are all Chinese and these are just few examples. Once this crisis is over it will be business as usual, Chinese companies will be allotted big projects and will earn hundred of crores. Any common mango will ask why should I pay 30K for a phone by Korean company when I get much better features at 25K by Chinese company specially when my Govt is paying Hundreds and Thousands of crores to Chinese firms..
I believe the largest chinese exports are electricial equipment as in power plants.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

SSridhar wrote:
nam wrote:
More than the people, it is the Indian press which has perfected dhoti shivering.
I was livid when I read that headline. Then I saw that it was no some foolish editor who gave caption to the story and is in fact a statement plucked from the article itself.

This guy Rajeev Sharma indeed made a fool of himself. But, reading the rest of the article I felt that he unfortunately made a wrong choice of words and that got stuck. This is how our media men & women make unrealistic claims knowingly and unknowingly.
This is not an unfortunate or wrong choice of words, Sir. These journalists and columnists dont have a clear India centric PoV and have some dhoti shivering. Had he been a reader of BRF and done his research thoroughly, he would know that the actual pressure is on China and would have stated it clearly that these talks are a trial by fire for China as to how they can climb down from their high horse without impacting their Honor and Dignity. It is a sorry state of affairs that this fellow has fallen prey to this poorly executed and childishly annoying Cheeni psyops and believes in his bottom of heart that India has blinked and is trying to wiggle out of the situation using diplomatic finesse!

Instead of getting worked up every time some idiot (there are hundreds of them, unfortunately in our media) pens such an article or misrepresents Indian position on TV, we need to work on educating them en-masse. For example, one of these research foundations such as Vivekanda Foundation or India foundation can take it up to set up a round table discussion (and also introduce forums such as BRF to those fellows) to clarify the issue, point them to good, easy to consume and publicly available research materials such as RohitVats blog or Shivji's videos or BRF threads and provide general guidance as to what contructive role media could play, it would be useful. Even if only 40% attend such discussions and of those who attend only half of them correct their writing and perceptions, we fix 20% of DDMities. Slowly, it will have a snowball effect as many of them have herd mentality and would flock to such discussions, where they get free research and guidance and don't have to regurgitate what they read in Cheeni or western press.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Per my Bhutanese coujins Appu and Ramu who are expert in Han astrology, this is The Year of Yelping Gecko.
Dok La is way south of Nathu La. Why has GOI allowed Chinese encroachment this far south? Obviously the Tibet border must be north of the northern edge of both Sikkim and Butan, which means the entire plateau must be de-Hanned. Hopefully by now there are signs way up north along the northern edge of the plateau saying : REPTILE-FREE ZONE.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Seriously, shiv, this "disputed area" nonsense has to be stopped. How does one publish some high-res maps of the Himalayas and Tibet, with borders and locations properly marked? Yeah, we can't change Googal, but if someone types "Dok La" in a Search Engine, we would like our map to come up, showing Dok La in parenthesis next to "Dhoklapur" named in honor of the great Malloo chai-kada where they serve said Gujarati delicacy. Entire Kazhuthappadam aka Yellow River Valley should be properly marked as Indian.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by yensoy »

schinnas wrote:Guys...No harm in checking what the stars say. In Indian culture Kings and Emperors including Shivaji Maharaj used to consult astrologers.

One astrologer in Bangalore predicted an India China border skirmish towards later half of 2017 several months ago. His and other's prediction is that India will emerge victorious but the wounds from this confrontation will lead to a bigger war in 2020.
The nice thing about astrology is that if your prediction is right, you will be celebrated like a genius. If your prediction is wrong, you can always bluff your way out of it - like taking refuge behind the "possibility" rather than "certainty", or saying that the birth date is incorrect or some such.

Besides given how many astrologers we have in the country, I am sure someone will get it right.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by yensoy »

All Indian maps, i.e. all maps sold or circulated in India should be required to do the following:
1. Write "Tibet" in the area covered by the Tibet Autonomous Region and Qinghai
2. Write "Xinjiang" in the area covered by Xinjiang
3. Use dashed lines to demarcate these provinces from the rest of China
4. Write "China" or "PRC" only in areas of China not in 1 or 2. If no such area exists in the map, then "China" may be omitted.

We don't need to get all worked up about foreign maps such as those in publications. That is step number 2, but the above should be followed ASAP.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Yagnasri »

As per a report (Swarajya???) lizard has large rapid deployment force which it can bring in to the conflict area. So present force levels may be largely temporary. I do not know acclimatisation related challenges and how the new forces can be used effectively with out it or they have any facilities to get them ready. However, we may get some notice period of any such large movement.

Are we ok against any large cyber attack? That will more serious than hundreds of CMs fired at our cities if we are not prepared.
UlanBatori
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

What Cyber attack? Worst is that BRF might go down. I have already filed IT return Saral-2 or whatever for this year so that is also done onlee. Train reservations might become inconvenient. Everything else is hardwired local, or mobile-phone AFAIK.

Oh, yeah! The Electric Power Grid!! :rotfl: No one will notice.
The Electronic Stock Market! It is still based on 16 documents per transaction.
Nationalized Bank!! Buggers don't even try to read email.
Private Banks!! Difference is that Nationalized Bank managers can read if they want to, since they are hired with legitimate college degrees and then lobotomized in Bank Training Camps. Private bank "managers" (IndusInd for instance) are hired from (never mind).
Airline reservations! All run out of Mauritius, Isle of Man, Cayman Islands etc.
Military Missile Early Warning System: Remember IC814? Latrine sweeper at Lucknow airport called cousin who was Chaprassi at the External Affairs Baboonpuri, and then woke up someone on the National Security Team.
schinnas
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

China's exports to India in descending order of magnitude by $ value

1. Electronic & electric products (including all mobile phones, accessories, parts) (About 20% of total imports from China are these):

2. Machinery

3. Various chemicals

4. Fertilizers

5. Iron or steel product

6. Plastics

7. Mineral fuels and Oils

..................

Of the above, we have a reaonably good private petrochemical, fertilizer, chemical and plastics industry to take on (4), (6) and (3) to varying degrees. It is not a question of know-how but economy of scale in making certain chemicals used in paints, etc. Taiwan and China rule here. To make a detailed study one needs access to more refined data which isnt available for free. At a very minimum, we should encourage our larger import houses of these chemicals to get these from Korea or Taiwan if possible (FTA with those countries would help).

In terms of plastics, Taiwan industry used to be nearly as strong as Chinese industry. India should seriously explore FTA with both Korea and Taiwan and substantially enable (in terms of tax rebates and land acquisitions and regulations) investments from these two countries. They hate China but are doing business with them as they dont find an alternative. We should become that alternative atleast for all manufacturing needs for South Asia and MENA region (MENA - Middle East and North Africa).

One huge problem in India used to be the unreliability and high cost of logistics due to customs and waiting period in moving goods from one state to another state. Hopefully with GST implemented, GoI should form an empowered expert group of Secretary of Trade, Finance, Transportation and Environment supervised by a go-getter Minister of State to

Our imports from (2) are not to be sneezed at. These are for both large industries such as power plants to SMBs such as spinning mills and textile / embriodery units to manufacturing houses of household pots and pans / mixer / grinder, etc. Importing these machinery from China instead of Germany or Japan makes them more cost effective and compete. They help in reducing impact of finished goods. If my memory serves me right, there is less customs duty for these types of machinery and we should continue that policy. However, we need to develop in-house capability in this area if we want to become a manufacturing power house in the long term.

Regarding (1), which is growing every year by several billion as Smartphone mania has caught on, we have taken some welcome steps in terms of encouraging local assembly in India and recently also bringing peripherals (phone cover, battery chargers, packing materials, USB cables, etc) under the ambit of Make In India for mobile. Very soon, we can start moving to OEM production of mobile screens and batteries (amongst the most expensive components of phones). Making the processors in India will be a distant dream as the fab industry is highly competitive and fast evolving. We may need to keep importing them for next several years but can revisit the problem after a few years. With good planning and effective implementation, we can reduce the electronic and mobile imports by as much as 25% or so. Even arresting the YoY growth in imports in this area would be a sizeable accomplishment.

Iron or Steel Products - should be subject to dumping investigations to ensure that Indian steel industry which is technologically advanced gets a level playing field.

I am not so sure about Mineral Fuels or Oils.. May be someone familiar with that area can comment. Not that I am very familiar with other areas, but have some vague idea to initiate a discussion.

There are some estimates that the actual imports from China is 50% to 100% higher than what is officially reported. It involves under-invoicing to evade customs and the remaining balance settled through hawala for local small and medium importers (ex: traders importing house hold goods or toys or balloons) or large private players setting up operations in multiple countries to evade customs. It is not an unsolvable problem but needs clear think through.

Even the current approach of encouraging chinese companies to MII for phones suffers from this above problem because assembly, testing and packing is enough to qualify for make in India consideration in mobile. These chinese companies significantly under-invoice the parts imported from China (as they are importing from their own OEM base) to realize a large profit margin in India and can repatriate the profits in the long term back to China.

Finally, success / outcome is highly dependent upon quality and breath of vision and direction. Our primary goal should not be to reduce dependence on China - we will then think like Pakis and hurt both our eyes to hurt one eye of Cheen. Our primary goal should be to become the global manufacturing base for several of these areas for South Asia and MENA region, leveraging our connectivity, branding and favorable logistics with this region. Reducing imports from China will become a welcome side-effect, but the solution we will come up with would be broader, sustainable and progressive.

Exports from India to China is another area where we need to have a fundamentally different and creative approach. Hope someone who has studied that area starts that discussion.
Last edited by schinnas on 27 Jul 2017 17:31, edited 2 times in total.
TKiran
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by TKiran »

Cyber attacks are not going to cripple, it's all over hyped just like Y2K scare. Within a week every thing would be back to normal, your laptops are not going to explode in your homes and offices..

Some minor inconvenience would be there here and there..
UlanBatori
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Seriously, they say that Yel-Ping Gecko has several oxygen chambers. Must be from Beijing and Shanghai where pollution has removed most oxygen.
UlanBatori
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

So if we reach desi mobile phone buyers, that's it. Achieve a 50 to 80 percent cut in sales of Chinese mobile phones in India and the lesson is conveyed.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by NRao »

Hari Seldon
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Hari Seldon »

Telecommunications ministry has raised alarm about cyber security issues with Chinese mobile handsets. Has added more regulations and customs duty on the same. Breaking news in India today, jussnow.
schinnas
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

schinnas wrote:China's exports to India in descending order of magnitude by $ value
.....
The current steps government is taking in terms of looking at each product separately and in conformance with WTO and other rules is very siloed and myopic. We will not get anywhere with that approach. Even the private players involved give tips to government only relating to their particular use case and ignore the larger eco-system effect.

Analyzing all the import data from China using latest machine learning, big-data and data analytic technologies can throw huge opportunities for evolving local production and local supply chain. I am sure our ISI (Indian Statistical Institute) and Niti Ayog do something like this, but its not reflecting in the results so far. To give a concrete example:

Nearly all the baloons and cheap toys sold all over India (total value runs to Billions!) are made in China and imported by multiple small players separately, often under different names, using under-invoicing and Hawala to evade customs, etc. However, if one can work out the quantity and frequency of the finished product and do a rigorous analytical deep-dive into the variations (or lack there of) amongst the imported goods, we can identify good opportunities for local manufacturing and supply of those finished goods.

Doing something like the one suggested above would be an integral undertaking that can really help build a maufacturing and supply chain base in India. But what the GoI is doing - playing around with import duty, trying to compute actual cost of products based on MRP printed on the packaging (which Chinese manufacturers are more than happy to evade by reducing the MRP to tally with the under-invoicing). There is an entire re-packaging industry in China and HongKong for such purposes. Even if government provides a country specific taxes, traders evade it by importing through Dubai, etc.

The fact that India imports as much from Dubai (which does not manufacture anything of value) as it does from US is a dead give-away as to how traders are circumventing government policies and customs loop holes.

In real world, different issues are often interconnected. We often discuss why we need IAS officers recruited laterally from the Industry. Kids who write civil services at a young age without real world experience cannot evolve integral solutions as they will be prisoners of the bureaucracy and provide silo-ed ineffective solutions to the government.

The problem of solving trade imbalance with China and eliminating black money in foreign trade is doable but it would take outsiders with high level of integrity, grey matter and real world business acumen. Our baboos cannot get there by themselves. They need help.
Last edited by schinnas on 27 Jul 2017 17:52, edited 1 time in total.
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