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Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Javee » 15 Jul 2017 20:36

I think its time the govt tables the 62 war report to the public and talk about the advances we have made in the last 40+ years. There is too much dhoti shivering in the general public and having a clear representation of information (not the operational ones) like that naval war college report will make wonders for the general public morale. Any further twisting or bending of facts by the left or Cheen can be easily countered in the social media, remember we have a good billion people too.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 15 Jul 2017 20:36

By mid June India had restricted all access to Nathu La and even Tsongo lake (approx 15 miles from Gangtok) for tourists. No way any information on actual troop locations is shared with the public. Everything around the Corp HQ in the city looked normal...was even close to one location at the highest view point and we were only told that landslides had closed access even to pilgrims to Kailash.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 15 Jul 2017 20:36

Bade wrote:Chinese potential interference is a given with their presence in PoK and the CPEC dreams through it. I am sure the center is aware of it and now the state of J&K is allowed to air the concerns. This also gives Mufti some breathing space.

I tend to agree. She is speaking of this thing with GOI's blessings whatever be the game.

Ok .. here is a thought .. China interfering in J&K and link it with Chemical weapons and what do you get?
Lets take this further and say something *resembling* a gas [choose one, something of old vintage and not as deadly as the those of the current generation] gets used in J&K or is alleged to have been used and China has threatened to teach India a lesson in J&K [a bit of an exaggeration but you get the point].

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ldev » 15 Jul 2017 21:06

The map below, courtesy geopoliticalfutures illustrates a point I made in my earlier post about the center of economic and political gravity in China being along it's Eastern part, especially the coastal areas. The vast interior areas to the west and south-west are mostly empty spaces and are natural land buffers to the Han heartland. In the event of conflict, India will not cause any serious damage if it attacks the "Tibet buffer", other than loss of face. By building outposts on reefs and reclaiming land in the South China sea, the Chinese are attempting to build a sea buffer similar to the land buffer they already enjoy.

Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby yensoy » 15 Jul 2017 21:32

Bade wrote:There is no way to verify it unless you are willing to spend money in buying publicly available land imagery from the west. You cannot get that in India for sure. A time series of such ones over the year will yield some information. You are asking for classified information.


Thanks. That wasn't my intent, was checking if there was any public info or even hint/rumour as to where the face-to-face happened. I hope it was upstream enough and they were pushed back right at (our version of) the Chinese border.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby VKumar » 15 Jul 2017 21:43

US HOUSE APPROVES 625.1 BN USD BILL ON DEFENCE COOPERATION WITH INDIA. What does it cover?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 15 Jul 2017 21:55

Iyersan wrote:China says no room for negotiations on Sikkim standoff, adds Ladakh to dispute with India
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-new ... Grn7I.html

The commentary by the official Xinhua news agency warned that India could face “embarrassment” if it does not withdraw its border troops and sought to add yet another dimension to the face-off by bringing in the Ladakh region and linking it to Pakistan.


Very good...This incident is bringing out all the cards cheena thinks it has little prematurely. A great wake up call for any old school fellows in MEA and strategic circles. India should work its ammunition of its various cards in China. A robust PR propaganda in Iran and middle East about how muslims are subjected to humiliation and slow genocide in North West china is one of it...But even Indian media isn't highlighting it enough.

I am sure we have enough resources to start a social media campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan about how China treats muslims in their country.

Once the flame is lit, the security cost of cheen operations in Af Pak will become prohibitively expensive.

Chinese are acting like clueless idiots that they are. They have an exposed underbelly of Chinese traders, construction workers , engineers and army people in Af Pak and Africa. With the way they treat their muslims, i am sure some strong blowback is going to come to them. India just needs to bring media attention to their atrocities against muslims.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 15 Jul 2017 22:02

I am sure that it is just a matter of time before some soosai attack happens on their outpost in Dijibouti. Al Queda and other terror groups nurtured by their friend Pakistan are already pissed off with the treatment china meets out to Uighur muslims.

All their grand plans on OBOR will go bust once there are a few revenge attacks that result in engineer or senior level casualty.

Even US with their global spy network, tech gizmos and fortresses are vulnerable. Chinese are exposing hundreds and thousands of their engineers and traders in all risky parts of the world. It's just a matter of time before they face hard realities of the world.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 15 Jul 2017 22:16

^^ They do not care about their own citizens well being in the pursuit of larger strategic goals. Even the USA cannot do all it wishes to do like them with no holds barred.

But the Chinese veiled threat to creating trouble in Kashmir via their media spokespeople is rather bewildering. It gives the perfect excuse for India to go after every two bit actor in J&K violence and no one will ask India why it went hammer and tongs. I am beginning to think the Chinese are rather dumb in reality and cannot even think straight.

All the smarter in their lot have left the shores for the west, who we see and interact with here. What is leftover in China are pretty much party functionaries with connections even in their universities.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 15 Jul 2017 22:31


JE Menon
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby JE Menon » 15 Jul 2017 22:37

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOyJZ4UGeD0

Karolina Goswami on India-China again, delivered in her inimitable way. Does not cut any corners. "Can we have brotherhood with a country where many people don't have brothers"?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chetak » 15 Jul 2017 22:52

Bade wrote:^^ They do not care about their own citizens well being in the pursuit of larger strategic goals. Even the USA cannot do all it wishes to do like them with no holds barred.

But the Chinese veiled threat to creating trouble in Kashmir via their media spokespeople is rather bewildering. It gives the perfect excuse for India to go after every two bit actor in J&K violence and no one will ask India why it went hammer and tongs. I am beginning to think the Chinese are rather dumb in reality and cannot even think straight.


Modi welcomed the chinese guy xi with a red carpet because of his (Modi's) dealings with chinese companies all of whom Modi had welcomed to Gujarat when he was the CM. He was eager to press on with the good relations and even build upon it with xi

xi paid back Modi's very generous hospitality in a truly uncultured and barbaric way when large numbers of chinese PLA troops transgressed deep into Indian territory right during the visit.

Matters went rapidly down hill from there. xi expected a docile MMS type response but was truly taken aback when Modi did not follow the chinese script.

Dalai lama's tawang visit was a very very clear and unmistakable message to xi from Modi as is the current doklam standoff.

The hans now very well know that Modi will not back down or ever again.

xi is looking at a huge loss of face and maybe his own bleak future.

The hans simply cannot handle India in a shooting war now. It really does not matter how strong they think that they are.

The Indian Forces more than match them in every sphere, if push does indeed come to shove.

The Indian forces are really spoiling for a fight and the hans also know this.

It is the very same Indian Army of 1962 but now with the leadership that the Indian soldiers deserve, both political and military, a leadership that they did not have in 1962, the very same indomitable soldiers of 1962, only better led, better fed, better trained, better armed, better supported and better clothed for high altitude and a much richer, much better led country that stands readily behind these "spoiling for a fight" jawans.

revenge is a great motivator, especially the revenge of the wronged hindi cheeni bhai.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 15 Jul 2017 23:05

Bade wrote:^^ They do not care about their own citizens well being in the pursuit of larger strategic goals. Even the USA cannot do all it wishes to do like them with no holds barred.

But the Chinese veiled threat to creating trouble in Kashmir via their media spokespeople is rather bewildering. It gives the perfect excuse for India to go after every two bit actor in J&K violence and no one will ask India why it went hammer and tongs. I am beginning to think the Chinese are rather dumb in reality and cannot even think straight.

All the smarter in their lot have left the shores for the west, who we see and interact with here. What is leftover in China are pretty much party functionaries with connections even in their universities.


They may not care about their lowly construction laborers, but their traders and engineers and senior level officials are on their own volition and can choose to go back or demand much higher salary and safety. Many private entities can close shop.

This is a very real threat that has tied down the Cheen from interfering in Syria. In fact, Syria offered Chinese a golden opportunity to showcase to the world that they have arrived. However, they were happy to let Russia steal the show. One reason is that they don't yet have the firepower of Russia but I suspect that the real reason is that they are scared of antagonising a billion and a half muslims all over the world.

Thats also the reason all their rhetoric against religious fundamentalism and oppression of muslims happen under an iron clad media and internet blockage.

All US and Indian agencies have to do is let the truth come out and get discussed widely in various middle East and Pakistani internet forums and social media.

China has the most exposed underbelly now of all countries. It isn't too difficult to make them rue the say they dared to mention Kashmir and Ladakh.

I don't expect purely pakistan focussed indian agencies to have such imagination and execution capability but US can. If anything, it will reduce the heat US is getting from global ummah by directing it against atheist Cheen.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 15 Jul 2017 23:13

The ugly truth is that to a fight a war, the strength of the economy does not scale linearly forever in your favor and China knows this. At lower levels like in the 1962 era, it mattered perhaps more though both countries were at similar levels then. Now for the last decade or so both have reached a saturation point, where adding more wealth or strength does not bring immediate end to wars with a short victory to one side unless limited to one local theatre, like say Sikkim tri-junction. So that is deterrence in itself, unless a local flashpoint erupts and then a local peace need to be found either with a decisive victory or a truce called.

So China cannot escalate the tri-junction flashpoint to a more widespread war, the only thing left for it to do is use their proxies in Pakistan to make trouble for India in J&K. There is some benefit for them in doing so clearly, but it needs to be done not as explicitly as they are trying to do which makes them look like idiots.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 15 Jul 2017 23:16

It was extremely stupid of China to take the nane of Kashmir when they have far bigger issue with Uighurs demanding sovereignty.

If we cannot make cheenaa pay for this blunder, that's totally our mistake.

Cheenaa has been very lucky that global ummah's attention is not on them yet. Why would they volunteer for such attention now is a Trillion Yuan question.

I know that Chinese are smart people but arrogance and greed is clouding their intellect and they are behaving like total idiots. Perfect time to reach them a lesson. In fact they are creating opportunities for it. Hope US, Tibetans, Global Uighurs, India, Japan, South Korea and other impacted powers make full use of it.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 15 Jul 2017 23:19

Bade wrote:The ugly truth is that to a fight a war, the strength of the economy does not scale linearly forever in your favor and China knows this. At lower levels like in the 1962 era, it mattered perhaps more though both countries were at similar levels then. Now for the last decade or so both have reached a saturation point, where adding more wealth or strength does not bring immediate end to wars with a short victory to one side unless limited to one local theatre, like say Sikkim tri-junction. So that is deterrence in itself, unless a local flashpoint erupts and then a local peace need to be found either with a decisive victory or a truce called.

So China cannot escalate the tri-junction flashpoint to a more widespread war, the only thing left for it to do is use their proxies in Pakistan to make trouble for India in J&K. There is some benefit for them in doing so clearly, but it needs to be done not as explicitly as they are trying to do which makes them look like idiots.

Mehbooba openly implicating China. With GOI tacit approval. If evidence exists of Chinese involvement why is it that we are not internationalizing it??

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 15 Jul 2017 23:20

Xi has put PRC in India's Bakistan dilemma. Panga he has taken will now have it;s own momentum and may swallow Xi's own political future. Hope PM Modi set BRICS summit up for failure. Every small or big opportunity for China to assert political, military , economic leadership must be countered by all Countries Xi has managed to antagonize.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby hanumadu » 15 Jul 2017 23:27



TIFWIW.
According to this video there is massive unemployment among retired soldiers. Don't they get pension? Only 60 dollars per month according to the video. Also the soldiers undergo training in communist party propaganda in addition to military training and they should spend 30 percent of their time for the communist party propaganda. Some fighting unit it will be.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 15 Jul 2017 23:29

rsingh wrote:There was a poster (RishiRishi IIRC) who told that BR is accessible in China. Is it possible to make a China specific thread for Chinese. Secondly is there any way of breaking great bullshit wall that blocks free flow of information. Hold on free and true information is biggest weapon China has.


It's not accessible in China, at least not the last time I went back in 2014. I tried from various locales in Beijing and Wuxi, all blocked.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 15 Jul 2017 23:31

Bade wrote:So China cannot escalate the tri-junction flashpoint to a more widespread war, the only thing left for it to do is use their proxies in Pakistan to make trouble for India in J&K. There is some benefit for them in doing so clearly, but it needs to be done not as explicitly as they are trying to do which makes them look like idiots.

Pakistan has become an unmitigated disaster. It has already done whatever it could and it has not worked to shift the balance away from India. To help China, the best Pakistan can do is terrorist attacks such as the bombings in Mumbai or flare ups in Kashmir. But these attacks, while devastating to the civilian population, have no effect on the military equation. China can also revive the assistance it gave to the insurgents in the NE, but this will not yield any short term gains in the current dispute.
Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 15 Jul 2017 23:50

China haa already revived its support for North East militants. It is believed that even ULFA leader is under Chinese influence.

I mentioned sometime earlier that they have overplayed their cards. There is nothing for India to hold back because Chinese are doing everything they can against India without open war.

- Arming Pakistan to the hilt including pricing sensitive drone, air force, missile and nuke technologies and fabricated weapons.

- Support for Kashmir terrorists in international forums and bailing out Pakistan in UNSC everytime.

- Blocking India in every International forum, whether it is UNSC, ASEAN or NSG.

- Aggressive encircling of india and trying to turn our neighbors against Indian interests in Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh (less successfully).

- Clandestinely supporting Paki fake currency rackets in India and all sorts of economic subterfuge including exporting counterfeit drugs with Made in India tags to hurt Indian economy.

- Supporting North East rebels with arms, strategy and counselling

The only card they didn't play was Kashmir and Sikkim, even though they have no legal standing in either case.

India on the other hand has several cards it has barely used. Each of these cards have varying degree of uaage. We don't need to go to a full extent such as recognising Taiwan as a separate country. We can by deftly working with partner nations with similar interests, can turn on the screws on each of these cards in parallel..fully away from any sort of publicity.

We are totally in a position to say, bring it on uncle eleven. We will make some humble pie for you to eat and serve crow for desert to your loudmouth spokespersons.

All this depends upon our leadership coordinating the efforts with various partners and executing on certain aspects in close coordination with partners. Its time to let loose our creativity. Against the collective night of the intelligence agencies of all of China's enemies, cheena doesn't have a chance in hell.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 00:00

On Sikkim they played in '62, '67 and '86 and lost, so they settled the borders except the tri-junction. It should have been settled then for that junction point too.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 16 Jul 2017 00:49

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/cpm-s ... 10673.html
CPM says Doka La is Bhutan's standoff with China, urges India to not interfere in dispute
New Delhi: The CPM stressed on the need for a fresh round of dialogue between India and China covering all strategic issues concerning the two countries to ease tension, following the standoff in Doka La area.
The CPM said "extraneous" factors must not be allowed to interfere in the quest for better bilateral ties. It alleged that differences between India and China have "aggravated" after the Modi government came to power and blamed the Centre's strategic alliance with the US for the "divergence".
.....

Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby yensoy » 16 Jul 2017 01:34

^^^^ Anyone taking this stance should be charged with treason. They can say whatever else they want but questioning our interest in guarding Bhutan is out of line.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 16 Jul 2017 01:45

It is treason, but nothing better was expected of CPM. But its time to make an example of such traitors. NIA should start investigation of Chinese funding of CPM...take in a few functionaries. They may be released after questioning , but the message would be heard loud and clear and there would be a penalty in terms of public support as well for these CPM creeps.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 01:47

^^^ what is intriguing about the CPM official stand (if true) on this issue is that among their foot soldiers at least ( a few I had conversations with) do not share this camaraderie with China, as they see China in the same light at the US. These are not people in power but long term local leaders. In any case, they carry little weight in national level politics to give their views any currency in strategic affairs.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby malushahi » 16 Jul 2017 02:47

why can't bhutan cede the entire doklam tract to india (considering the shaksgam precedent where one of the countries disputing a piece of land unilaterally ceded it to a third country)?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 16 Jul 2017 02:58

In this "tri"-partite dispute, what does the third party, Bhutan, think? From this article, it seems like Bhutan and China are ready to settle their dispute, at India's detriment, which prompted the the Indian incursion into Bhutanese/Chinese territory.

https://thewire.in/156180/bhutan-doklam-border-china/

In the Tri-Junction Entanglement, What Does Bhutan Want?
BY P. STOBDAN ON 11/07/2017 • 1 COMMENT
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People in Bhutan seem to think it is time to resolve the dispute with China once and for all, without pandering to Indian interests.

As the India-China standoff persists, the key question is where Bhutan actually stands. India’s claim that Bhutan is fully with India on the issue seems questionable. The official statement issued by the Bhutanese government on June 29 does not make the country’s position explicit.

The 1949 Friendship Treaty (updated in 2007) guides the contemporary Indo-Bhutan relationship and aims to ensure India’s non-interference in Bhutan’s internal affairs. Article 2 of the 1949 version, however, entrusted India with the power to guide Bhutan’s foreign policy. But Article 2 of the 2007 version freed Bhutan from seeking India’s guidance on foreign policy and obtaining permission over arms imports, among other things. The article now only says that India and Bhutan “shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.”

Even before the revised treaty, Bhutan’s UN membership in 1971 had fundamentally impaired the sacredness of the old Article 2. Bhutan is an independent country. It raised its diplomatic representation in New Delhi to the full ambassadorial level in 1971.

Notwithstanding all the geopolitical pulls and pressures, Bhutan has steadfastly stood behind India as its most reliable ally. But the impression among the Bhutanese now is that India has been coming in the way of Bhutan reaffirming its status as an independent state, especially in the foreign policy arena.

People in Bhutan think that India has for too long prevented their country from normalising diplomatic ties and negotiating a border settlement with China. India, on its part, fears that any boundary deal will not only impact Indian security but also impinge on its own negotiating position with China on the boundary issue. From Bhutan’s perspective, India’s position is adversely impacting its ties with China. This is the main issue that is leading to complexities and confusion, including the standoff at Doklam.

However, it appears that this is not the first time the Chinese have intervened and built roads not only in disputed territory, but also inside Bhutan.

Also read: The Bhutan Stand-Off Is an Opportunity, Not a Threat

Bhutan’s shares a 470-km-long border with China and according to some reports, over 25% of this border remained disputed for decades. China wanted Bhutan to cede a 269-square-km area in west Bhutan, including Dramana, Shakhatoe and Sinchulung, in exchange for which it had offered to give Bhutan a 495-square-km area in Pasamlung and Jakarlung.

In the Doklam plateau in the west, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is known to have made frequent intrusions since the mid-1960s. Talks with China began in 1972, but since 1984, negotiations became bilateral without India’s participation. The two countries managed to sign an Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity in the Bhutan-China Border Areas in 1998. Thus far, 24 rounds of discussion have taken place under the agreement. The last round was held in August 2016 in Beijing between Chinese vice foreign minister Liu Zhenmin and Bhutanese foreign minister Lyonpo Damcho Dorji. However, the Chinese have recently claimed that Bhutan and China have a basic consensus on the functional conditions and demarcation of their border region.

At the heart of the issue is the lingering suspicion in India about the possibility of Bhutan ceding the Doklam plateau – located on the strategic tri-junction of Bhutan, the Chumbi Valley in China and the state of Sikkim in India. The area is extremely critical to India’s security as it overlooks the Siliguri corridor. China, on the other hand, has held a tough position on Doklam and has been upgrading infrastructure networks, including roads in nearby areas, on the lines that it has built in Aksai Chin.

Bhutan’s slowly-changing stance

Until recently, as per the treaty obligation, Bhutan has kept India’s interest in mind and evaded a settlement with China. The general approach has been that the country could neither bargain nor impose its will on the matter, and therefore would go along with India and China’s mutual understanding.

Through this conflict, Bhutan has appeared to want to settle the Doklam issue once and for all, and thereafter maintain friendly and equidistant ties with both India and China.

We must note that Bhutanese position has been changing in a subtle way, especially the manner in which their boundary negotiation with China was proceeding without the knowledge of India. According to Govinda Rizal, a Bhutan watcher, soon after the Druk king had stepped down in 2007, the interim government produced a map without Kulakangri (Bhutan’s tallest peak), indicating that it had unofficially ceded the region to China. Rizal contended that during 2008-2013, Bhutan neither accepted the swap nor tried to regain the ‘cartographically ceded‘ land.

Nevertheless, Rizal said the two had agreed to the border demarcations in Pasamlung and Jakarlung. The settlement in the north was to pave the way to determine the course of action to settle the western border in Doklam. It seems that agreement on a political compromise had been reached during the 19th round of boundary talks held in January 2010. Perhaps this was also the outcome of the meeting between the then Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigme Thinley and the then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in June 2012 in Rio de Janeiro.

The agreement also perhaps included the decision to establish diplomatic ties. The Chinese claimed that China and Bhutan gained remarkable headway on the boundary issue during the 20th round of talks held in Thimphu on August 10, 2012.


According to some reports, China has already seized over 8,000 square km of Bhutanese land. Credit: Reuters/Damir Sagolj
According to Rizal, China had offered Thinley a financial deal for the border settlement. However, some news reports suggested that China had already seized over 8,000 square km and Bhutan’s total area has reduced to 38,390 square km from 46,500 square km since 2010. In fact, many suspected this was the reason for India’s disappointment, which resulted in it supporting (or even instigating) the defeat of Thinley and his party in the 2013 general elections in Bhutan and thus put a spoke in the wheel of the settlement.

Several Bhutanese analysts have argued that neither Bhutan nor India has a strong historical argument to lay claim over Doklam, Sinchulumpa, Dramana and Shakhatoe vis-à-vis China. Bhutan’s claims, they contend, are based on an “imaginary line drawn on paper by some British surveyors – like those of the McMahon Lines – without actual verification on the ground,” wrote Yeshey Dorji, a well-known commentator.
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Popular perception, then, is that Bhutan has no military capability and strategic considerations to hold on to Doklam, Jakarlung and the Pasamlung areas. Moreover, China has not even considered disputes in the Jakarlung and Pasamlung areas. But Doklam is different; as Dorji said, “Make no mistake – this issue of the Doklam Plateau is very, very scary! Is there something that the Indians and the Chinese know about this track of desolate and frigid wilderness that we Bhutanese don’t?”

Bhutanese perceptions are getting visibly louder on social media and the growing aspirations of the people suggest that Bhutan’s ability to withstand pressures from both China and India has become paramount.

An Indian view that offended Bhutan

The aversion – if not dislocation – among the Indian security establishment on the matter, which was noted by Dorji, was also brought out in an article, ‘Dealing with Doklam‘, by former Indian army lieutenant general Prakash Katoch. The 2013 article suggested, “The king of Bhutan may consider selling the Doklam Plateau to India so that this bone of contention is resolved permanently”. His recommendation strongly provoked Bhutanese commentators, who decided that this was simply ‘lunacy’ coming from the Indian think tank circuit. It is “insane for anyone to believe that a nation would sell her land …..that too at the heart of the dispute and even while China is sitting on that very piece of land,” a commentator wrote. “Why such an experienced and senior high ranking military officer would be driven to such insane thoughts of desperation?”

The prevailing sentiment in Bhutan is in favour of resolving the issue with China amicably without further delay, so that the country can have a peaceful boundary with its northern neighbour as it has with India. It has been clearly indicated that the Bhutanese are getting impatient on the boundary question. This is also a sign of their growing disenchantment with India’s non-reciprocity to their deep commitments for Indian security concerns. As the commentator quoted above wrote, “Do not force the chicken to fly the coop. It is bad foreign policy.” Many also conveyed in private their impatience for change, saying Bhutan made many sacrifices for India which were in fact detrimental to its own interests.

The Bhutanese have expressed the fear that a delayed resolution could lead to China toughening its position and reviving maximal territorial claims, that would result in Bhutan losing land as far as Kanglung to the east and Samdrup Jongkhar to the south. Chinese maps show the Arunachal Pradesh boundary, which China claims as its territory, extending up to Kanglung in east Bhutan. According to Rizal, Bhutan might lose another 4,500 square km or up to 10% of the country’s area if it fails to resolve disputes with China.

In June 2013, PLA troops made an intrusion through the Sektang region in the east and the Pang La region in the north, and built three posts inside Bhutanese territory. Rizal says, “Every year when India reports about the Chinese assertions, they provide impetus to push in more military men into Bhutan.”

Bhutanese authority generally remains mute and the media has neither the courage nor the concept to report incursions, he said. The only source of information for the world outside is through media in exile, like the Bhutan News Service.

What China is thinking

China has long desired an independent Bhutanese stand without Indian advocacy and interference on the boundary issue. Chinese academia often dubbed India’s interference as hegemony in South Asia. When Chinese vice foreign minister Liu visited Thimphu in August 2013, he talked about broadening relations. Chinese officials always indicated that for any steps to settle the boundary dispute once and for all, establishing diplomatic ties between the two countries is necessary. The Chinese have for years wanted to open an embassy in Thimphu. It had promised to upgrade the Bhutanese consulate in Hong Kong to an embassy, to promote increased tourist flows and exchange of visits, among other things.

Beijing finds itself in a strange position in not having diplomatic ties with neighbouring Bhutan, which has lately widened its foreign relations with 53 countries, including Japan, another adversary of China. However, since the change of government in Thimphu, no new country has been added to the list of states Bhutan has established diplomatic ties. The last country added was Oman, on March 15, 2013.

The key to Beijing’s strategy so far has been to dilute the Indian dominant position, seeking parity in the eyes of Bhutan. Towards this goal, Beijing worked first on its diplomacy by deciding to vote for Bhutan’s membership to the UN in 1971. Later, China managed to bring Bhutan to the negotiating table on the boundary issue and lately she may have perhaps influenced Thimphu to have Article 2 of 1949 Friendship Treaty with India removed altogether. Many Chinese analysts view Bhutan as already neutralised. Hordes of Bhutanese students are being offered scholarships in China. Many young Bhutanese frequently travel to Chinese cities for business and other reasons.

The view is that New Delhi pegged the boundary issue with the financial packages it offered to Bhutan so far. Despite a one-third cut in funds for Bhutan, the Himalayan kingdom still gets Rs 3,714.13 crore of the total 6,479.13 crore or 57% allotted for India’s foreign aid budget during FY 2017-18 disbursed by the Ministry of External Affairs.

It was widely suspected that Thimphu’s discreet deals with China led to this financial cut and the election interference by India in 2013.

Clearly, the next election in Bhutan in October 2018 will be fought on pro- versus anti-Indian slogans.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, like Nehru, had reportedly promised India’s continued security guarantee to Bhutan against any possible expansionist designs. Whether the Bhutanese still consider China as posing a real threat to them is the question, however..

P. Stobdan, a former Indian ambassador, is an expert on Himalayan affairs.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SriKumar » 16 Jul 2017 03:00

chetak wrote:
Bade wrote:^^ They do not care about their own citizens well being in the pursuit of larger strategic goals. Even the USA cannot do all it wishes to do like them with no holds barred.

But the Chinese veiled threat to creating trouble in Kashmir via their media spokespeople is rather bewildering. It gives the perfect excuse for India to go after every two bit actor in J&K violence and no one will ask India why it went hammer and tongs. I am beginning to think the Chinese are rather dumb in reality and cannot even think straight.

xi paid back Modi's very generous hospitality in a truly uncultured and barbaric way when large numbers of chinese PLA troops transgressed deep into Indian territory right during the visit.
I still wonder why he did that, and the absolute stupidity, not to mention, uncouthness of the act. It is quite the anti-thesis of the behavior of an 'old civilization'. It is not something that will be forgotten. I personally think the war planning would have started from there (my speculation only)....along the lines of- if they can do that, they can do anything. WIth the naming of Falun Gong (which India had never commented on earlier), Modi has clearly indicated his position. There is no backing down now-India is in the for the haul-long or short.

This may/may not be relevant but a few months ago, the President of Phillipines made some noises about China drilling (?) in its vinicity and wanting them to go. Xi made some very blunt and direct statements asking if Philipines, wanted a war. And that was the end of the bluster from them. Perhaps he expected the same reaction from India.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Guddu » 16 Jul 2017 03:02

JE Menon wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOyJZ4UGeD0

Karolina Goswami on India-China again, delivered in her inimitable way. Does not cut any corners. "Can we have brotherhood with a country where many people don't have brothers"?


She is quite an insightful person...2:18-4:22 is the must watch section.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sudarshan » 16 Jul 2017 03:13

SriKumar wrote:
chetak wrote:xi paid back Modi's very generous hospitality in a truly uncultured and barbaric way when large numbers of chinese PLA troops transgressed deep into Indian territory right during the visit.
I still wonder why he did that, and the absolute stupidity, not to mention, uncouthness of the act. It is quite the anti-thesis of the behavior of an 'old civilization'. It is not something that will be forgotten. I personally think the war planning would have started from there (my speculation only)....along the lines of- if they can do that, they can do anything. WIth the naming of Falun Gong (which India had never commented on earlier), Modi has clearly indicated his position. There is no backing down now-India is in the for the haul-long or short.


When you understand their psyche, the reason will be obvious. It's their notion of "carrot and stick." They come to talk in honeyed words, but the only reason they come to talk is so that they can brandish the stick. IOW, they have already decided that you are a vassal state, and that they are doing you a favor by talking to you, but don't get too uppity, the stick is there and they can use it any time. Not only have they decided that you are a vassal state, they also have decided that *you acknowledge your vassal status,* and will be awed by the display of the stick.

This is why when India's then president Venkataraman was visiting China, they conducted a multi-megaton nuclear test, deliberately coinciding with the president's visit.

You are a vassal, existing because of our benevolence, we know that you know your vassal status, just because we come and talk nicely to you, don't imagine that you are anything other than a vassal - we come to talk because we want to, because we feel like being nice to you.

If that still doesn't make sense, think of how a sadistic bully would behave with his "pet" dog. He'll feed it a treat, then when the grateful dog is gobbling it up with wagging tail, the bully will whack the dog one - "see, this treat is not something you deserve, I'm giving it to you because I feel like being nice, but don't get any notions that you are my equal - you are dog and I am master."

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 03:17

Borders are not agreed upon solely based on past history, but also current threat perceptions. So the fact that Doklam may have been technically even Tibetan territory is meaningless as it now does not exist as a country. What should get priority is Indian security concerns, which are even greater than Bhutan's views on where its boundaries are with China. The entire Chumbi valley needs to be disputed by India. In one of the interviews I recall someone (Gen. Kulkarni) saying that Panditji had even visited Yuthang the original name which is now called Yadong by the Chinese.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ArjunPandit » 16 Jul 2017 03:32

Bade wrote:^^^ what is intriguing about the CPM official stand (if true) on this issue is that among their foot soldiers at least ( a few I had conversations with) do not share this camaraderie with China, as they see China in the same light at the US. These are not people in power but long term local leaders. In any case, they carry little weight in national level politics to give their views any currency in strategic affairs.

It is the communist ideology to support the communist $hithead more than their own their country (read transcend). With WB seeing being so much violence, these traitors should be systematically meet some accidents of local violence only.
I dont think they have that many followers that will shed tears for long...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 16 Jul 2017 04:13

I recommend the americanism Red China. It succinctly denotes something grotesque and unnatural, perhaps to be reflexively fought and be made extinct.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby khan » 16 Jul 2017 04:37

DavidD wrote:In this "tri"-partite dispute, what does the third party, Bhutan, think? From this article, it seems like Bhutan and China are ready to settle their dispute, at India's detriment, which prompted the the Indian incursion into Bhutanese/Chinese territory.

https://thewire.in/156180/bhutan-doklam-border-china/

In the Tri-Junction Entanglement, What Does Bhutan Want?
BY P. STOBDAN ON 11/07/2017 • 1 COMMENT
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People in Bhutan seem to think it is time to resolve the dispute with China once and for all, without pandering to Indian interests.
...
But the impression among the Bhutanese now is that India has been coming in the way of Bhutan reaffirming its status as an independent state, especially in the foreign policy arena.
...
From Bhutan’s perspective, India’s position is adversely impacting its ties with China. This is the main issue that is leading to complexities and confusion, including the standoff at Doklam.
...
Several Bhutanese analysts have argued that neither Bhutan nor India has a strong historical argument to lay claim over Doklam, Sinchulumpa, Dramana and Shakhatoe vis-à-vis China. Bhutan’s claims, they contend, are based on an “imaginary line drawn on paper by some British surveyors – like those of the McMahon Lines – without actual verification on the ground,” wrote Yeshey Dorji, a well-known commentator.
...


I had hypothesized the same thing earlier:

khan wrote:
But it does raise one interesting point which helps explain why the Chinese are so apoplectic about the whole thing.

And the point is, what if India did this uninvited? What if there was some deal between China and Bhutan (or elements in the Bhutanese Government) and India just walked in and kicked China out - uninvited?

This might explain why the Chinese are so pissed. They might think they have some right to be there (beyond their BS territorial claims).

And Bhutan like a kid with its hand caught in the cookie jar - is quietly sitting in the corner hoping no-one notices that they violated the "Friendship treaty" with India.

ADDED LATER: This also explains Global Times exhortations for Bhutan to step out of India's shadow blah blah blah, India's studied silence and Bhutan's silence on the issue



This theory still makes the most sense to me and if this is true - means the Chinese overplayed their hands. If this is true, it means that the Chinese now have to demonstrate the muscle to preserve the backroom deal they made with Bhutan if if they cannot (as I strongly suspect), they look weak.

Bhutan will not confirm the deal because they rely on India for everything and China is not yet in a position to replace India as their patron (for Logistical reasons).

So, if this theory is true, China can either put up the muscle to preserve their deal or look weak in front of all their neighbors in Asia. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby hanumadu » 16 Jul 2017 05:20

What country gives up its land willingly? Weren't there news reports Bhutan invited India to stop the chinese from advancing any further?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby darshan » 16 Jul 2017 05:54

Everyone knows that inviting chinese is same thing as inviting slavery. So only countries doing anything that stupid would be like dictatorships, few families controlling the country, brainwashed population like one supporting CPM or CPI, etc. Bhutan has not reached there yet like Nepal, BD, pakis, etc. If India continues to wait and gets no worthy successor to Modi, then Bhutan can get there. At least for the time being I do not see it there. However, to state the obvious, every generation is different and India can't continue to count on things to stay static. chinese are confident about having control of Indian politics and will be looking at Modi as not everyday problem to deal with. From the Indian perspective, it is just being between rock and hard place. Respond to chinese backstabbing and below belt punching while Modi is still in power or probably wait forever (which India does not have as islamic watch is also ticking with young population getting older). One thing is clear that only way for real tiger to win against paper tiger is on battle ground as winning on table through economic warfare, negotiations, etc. is futile. It is just unfortunate that chinese only understand the language of sword. One can't choose neighbors.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby RCase » 16 Jul 2017 05:58

hanumadu wrote:What country gives up its land willingly? Weren't there news reports Bhutan invited India to stop the chinese from advancing any further?

Bakistan via CPEC!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 06:01

That is a plausible argument to explain their anger. After all the roads took some time to build and India was quiet then. But when it came to inking the deal, and Bhutan having informed India of its intention things went awry for the Chinese.

This might also explain the confusion regarding the location of the actual place of dispute in the press during initial days. The reports which Rohit Vats blog linked to took me places, where I did read about Bhutanese being ready to cede Doklam plateau to the Chinese officially. This is the part where they have built roads to connect to Yathung/Yadong across a ridgeline in Bhutan. That road has been in existence for long as I recall.

The Chinese got smart sensing this agreement with Bhutan, and started moving troops into the area close to the Doka La pass nearer the tri-junction, which was not demarcated but Bhutanese territory. This is when India moved in troops to object to it. Maybe even the Bhutanese objected as they knew India would not agree with it.

The Chinese got greedy and wanted to grab all they could but it all got out. If they had just limited themselves to the Doklam plateau on the east side of the Chumbi valley, then perhaps India would have had to keep quiet following a settlement between China and Bhutan. But it is too late now for that due to their greed. Their salami slicing got bigger for their own good.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 16 Jul 2017 06:19

You fools! Don't you realize what it means if the Chinese remain? Don't you remember your history? The last time the Chinese came, they stayed a thousand years. The French are foreigners. They are weak. Colonialism is dying. The white man is finished in Asia. But if the Chinese stay now, they will never go. As for me, I prefer to sniff French shit for five years than to eat Chinese shit for the rest of my life.

- Ho Chi Minh, arguing against Vietnam changing to Chinese control from French rule post WW2


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