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Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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DavidD
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 16 Jul 2017 11:56

Some of you are thinking with your heart instead of your head. What's the value of "face" really? China stands to lose face, sure, but India stands to lose a strategic plateau that can may be used to cut off a large portion of Indian territory. One is a nebulous concept, another is a quite genuine threat.

This is why I believe China is more likely to back down. Deterrence as we all know is about capability + intent. China didn't achieve its objectives in the Korean War because it was more capable than the U.S., it did so because its intention of defending NK at all cost was heard loud and clear. Similarly for the '79 Sino-Vietnamese war. Vietnamese determination was clear, they were willing to clear out the north of the country and fight China tooth-and-nails around Hanoi, and China backed down despite being able to muster a far greater force. Doklam plateau is of much greater importance to India than it is to China, this fact I'm sure the Chinese leaders understand full well. The China-Bhutan disputes were always just a cloak for the China-India dispute, it seems now that all that's changed is the cloak was pulled.

I don't pay much attention to rhetorics or emotions, I like to pay attention to facts on the ground. The facts that maintained peace there for decades hasn't changed much. China wants Doklam, India wants it more and refuses to let China have it. That Bhutan may no longer be acting as a buffer does raise the risk of conflict, but the fundamentals remain the same as before here, and is not really any different from other China-India border disputes.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Rudradev » 16 Jul 2017 12:07

chetak wrote:.

this ministry has had people like kr narayanan, mani shankar aiyar and a whole host of India loathing kattarpanthi commies who were nothing more than parasites on the body politic



You must mean MK Narayanan (Scum Mohan Singh's NSA during 26/11).

KR Narayanan was President of India 1997-2002.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 16 Jul 2017 12:18

Deans wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
TIFWIW.
According to this video there is massive unemployment among retired soldiers. Don't they get pension? Only 60 dollars per month according to the video. Also the soldiers undergo training in communist party propaganda in addition to military training and they should spend 30 percent of their time for the communist party propaganda. Some fighting unit it will be.


True. I had argued earlier in this thread that all members in the CPC are not on the same page - many fear being purged by Eleven. Similarly, the army might resent Eleven trying to take control. His opponents may be trying to create a situation where Eleven is publicly embarrassed by having to pull back.

Most Chinese soldiers are conscripts, so apart from a very short tenure in the service, political lectures eat up a lot of their training time.
This was the biggest problem in the Soviet army, which the Russians have since corrected.
There is no experienced NCO/ JCO cadre, who also have terrain experience - unlike IA.


I'm not sure the PLA ever used conscripts, at least not for a few decades. It's true though that the Chinese society is not very martial, historically soldiers were never afforded high social status.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chetak » 16 Jul 2017 12:24

Rudradev wrote:
chetak wrote:.

this ministry has had people like kr narayanan, mani shankar aiyar and a whole host of India loathing kattarpanthi commies who were nothing more than parasites on the body politic



You must mean MK Narayanan (Scum Mohan Singh's NSA during 26/11).

KR Narayanan was President of India 1997-2002.


I meant KR Narayanan

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 16 Jul 2017 12:43

DavidD wrote:
Deans wrote:
True. I had argued earlier in this thread that all members in the CPC are not on the same page - many fear being purged by Eleven. Similarly, the army might resent Eleven trying to take control. His opponents may be trying to create a situation where Eleven is publicly embarrassed by having to pull back.

Most Chinese soldiers are conscripts, so apart from a very short tenure in the service, political lectures eat up a lot of their training time.
This was the biggest problem in the Soviet army, which the Russians have since corrected.
There is no experienced NCO/ JCO cadre, who also have terrain experience - unlike IA.


I'm not sure the PLA ever used conscripts, at least not for a few decades. It's true though that the Chinese society is not very martial, historically soldiers were never afforded high social status.


Yes, SYRE. I would say even less martial than us SDREs since we crushed the supposedly "martial" pakis who termed us SDREs three times.

I hope you are wrong in that we allow the PRC to simply "back down." If I were Modi I would order the IA to kick arse regardless.

That is what I hope. But you are probably correct, Cheen will back down not because they want it less but because India owns every military advantage along the border.

And Indians, SDREs that we are, will allow you unmartial rice-eating chinis to leave without a fight. Thereby, cementing our own reputation as rice-eating non-warriors.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 12:43

On the Coomi kapoor piece folks are getting unduly exited. IF GOI does NOT know of the movements of the Chinese ambassador within India the it needs to be removed.

So I am thinking that this is a Chinese power pay and the GOI is fully aware of that. None of those who he has met can side with them. Even a hint will give the BJP the opportunity to cry sellout. So we must rest assured on that count.

So what could be the motive? I can think of two things. Chinese, as usual are using the model they understand based on their own experience within China and dictators and failed states outside. E.g. they think by sucking up to Mamta banoji they will have Bengal people on their side. Simply the wrong assumption.

But they are good at psyops and they understand the anxieties such show will have in the Indian public mind. Proof is very much evident on this forum where folks are supposed to know better than mango aadmi.

We should focus on the Bhutan angle and forget the rest.

Added later: Changed a lot of auto corrects.
Last edited by pankajs on 16 Jul 2017 13:35, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Arjun » 16 Jul 2017 12:44

DavidD wrote: Doklam plateau is of much greater importance to India than it is to China, this fact I'm sure the Chinese leaders understand full well.

Perhaps.

But looking at things from India's standpoint, the Chinese don't seem to have much of a handle on reality to be honest. I mean they plan to invest $50 Bn on disputed territory which is claimed by India ! What does that tell you about the strategic capabilities of the 'inscrutable' Chinese ??
Last edited by Arjun on 16 Jul 2017 12:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 16 Jul 2017 12:45

Fook it. We need to go war.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 13:00

About the wire piece by some STOBDAN

I read about half of it and found at least two glaring inconsistencies. The author makes a point that seems to favor the Chinese position and then goes to contradict it trying to prove some other point.

Seems to have been written with the sole objective to argue against Indian position. If one looks back at all farts published on the site with regards to the Indo-chinese standoff the tilt is obvious.

I wouldn't be surprised if the wire is funded by the Chinese/Bakis directly or in-directly. After all a so called *independent voice* needs a lot of funds to survive without having any viable business model.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 16 Jul 2017 13:05

chola wrote:
DavidD wrote:
I'm not sure the PLA ever used conscripts, at least not for a few decades. It's true though that the Chinese society is not very martial, historically soldiers were never afforded high social status.


Yes, SYRE. I would say even less martial than us SDREs since we crushed the supposedly "martial" pakis who termed us SDREs three times.

I hope you are wrong in that we allow the PRC to simply "back down." If I were Modi I would order the IA to kick arse regardless.

That is what I hope. But you are probably correct, Cheen will back down not because they want it less but because India owns every military advantage along the border.

And Indians, SDREs that we are, will allow you unmartial rice-eating chinis to leave without a fight. Thereby, cementing our own reputation as rice-eating non-warriors.


You sound almost like you admire the martial qualities of Pakistanis. Do you think it's coincidence that two of the least martial cultures in the world are the only ones who've managed to remain great for most of human history? Where are the Romans? The Spartans? How are the Mongols doing these days?

Both civilizations have certainly experienced plenty of suffering due to their lack of "martialness", like British and Moghul conquests of India, or Mongolian and Manchurian conquests of China. But look at now, the British are back to the confines of their puny island, the Mongolians are back to being rabble of herders, the Muslims are now all Indians, as are the Manchurians Chinese. The SxREs know how to survive.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 13:30

Let me state the current position on these three points.
1. Most supplies for the landlocked Bhutan is from India and most of the exports are to India.
2. India-Butan border is without disputes, demarcated and peaceful and thus worry free for Bhutan.
3. Bhutan and India have agreed to take each others sensitivities into account and not allow their territory to be used against the other. From memory so may not be exact words but you get the gist.

Suppose Bhutan wants to cut a deal with China *behind* India's back. Now in light of the 3 points listed above.
1. Will such a move fetch peace for Bhutan?
2. Will it solve their boundary problem?
3. Will it improve Bhutans position?

The answer to all of the above is a big NO. it will just replace the current problem with another FAR bigger problem with India.
1. While Bhutan can diversify its trade in the long run and at a cost, in the short run an *issue* with India will cause a lot of suffering and certainly no peace.
2. What prevents the Indo-Bhutanese border from suddenly becoming disputed? For arguments sake, lets assume India claims a wide swathe of Bhutanese territory to preserve its cushion wrt the chicken's neck. Will Bhutan then call in the Chinese to help oust India? And will such a move bring peace to Bhutan or will it make it the military battleground for Indian and Chinese forces?
3. If India decides to move on Bhutan with or without the involvement of the Chinese will it improve Bhutans position wrt now?

While Bhutanese can decide for themselves any move that ignores India's concerns or imperils it's security will doubly impact Bhutan in a negative way. Any move away from status quo will only bring conflict to Bhutan.

Are the Bhutanese such duffers that they think putting India's security at risk will not invite a response? The farts that purport to speak on behalf of the Bhutanese are actually speaking on behalf of the Chinese.
Last edited by pankajs on 16 Jul 2017 13:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 16 Jul 2017 13:45

DavidD wrote:Where are the Romans?

I'll tell you where the Romans are:
Sonia Gandhi 10, Janpath,New Delhi - 110 011Tels. (011) 23014161, 23012656

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Deans » 16 Jul 2017 14:11

DavidD, My understanding is that there is conscription for college students. This started as an experiment some 15 years ago but today there are
around 150,000+ college students inducted into the PLA each year. The intent was to provide the PLA with a cadre of technically competent people.
It is this group that has inadequate combat training, because whatever little training time there is is divided between political lectures and combat training.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 16 Jul 2017 14:31

Rudradev wrote: "G2" as a notion will meet its end in the eastern Himalayas.


G2 is Chinese imagination burnished by the American business lobby who is in it to make a quick buck. While there is no denying Chinese and Americans would love for this to come to pass, the wheels of time and demographics have come to give them a proverbial kick in their teeth.

Bismarck was no Modi but then neither is Modi moulding himself on Bismarck. Xi thinks he might be Napolean. But does China have the war fighting capabilities? Having latest reverse engineered gadgets accompanied by bluster that defines Chinese, has not yet found themselves facing an adversary who wont back down. Its all well and good that they are showing off their 1st AC carrier. But without any operational experience, can they really achieve what Indian AC CBG can most demostrably do - Block Mallacca straits. Xi even got rid off Sun Zhengcai yesterday who was Bo Xilai replacement at Chongquing. How long can he continue doing this until there is a backlash? I expect longer than we can imagine. But then it might not be as long as we would assume. The parallels between this era and the era defined by Prince Anne's War are stark. The only problem as I see it, the allies in the Chinese camp are failed, almost failing dictatorships where internal turmoil is likely to cause the end of the hostilities than any clear winner emerges in the field of war.

Clausewitz said 'Professional Military knows the distinctions between policy, strategy, and military operations'.

Nehru did not listen to the army, Modi does and probably will. We do not know about Xi. Bade saar posted a video earlier about Chinese vetrans staging protest. So did our vetrans on OROP. But while Indian issue was solved amicably, is Chinese problem solved?

https://www.clausewitz.com/mobile/HPtrinity.htm

The passions that are to be kindled in war must already be inherent in the people; the scope, which the play of courage and talent will enjoy in the realm of probability and chance, depends on the particular character of the commander and the army; but the political aims are the business of government alone.


This would be also the hope for the Anglo-Saxon block to have a war in this region.

More people live in this ellipse than the rest of the world.
Image

I do not think Chinese want war but if the war comes I am sure we will be ready.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 16 Jul 2017 15:18

http://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/ ... 17125.html

Tibetan student self-immolates in India


A Tibetan student has self-immolated in India after shouting "freedom", police said on Saturday, injuring himself critically.
Tenzin Choeying set himself on fire on Friday at the Central University for Tibetan Studies in Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh state.

Self-immolation has regularly been used as a protest against China's actions in Tibet.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 16 Jul 2017 15:34

A Government of India servant, like the magistrate of Darjeeling, could not have met the Chinese Ambassador without authorization from GoI.It is against service rules to do so without clearance. I am not even sure if the Chinese ambassador could have travelled to Darjeeling without notifying GoI.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 16 Jul 2017 15:36

Singha wrote:does india have full diplomatic relations with taiwan? I assume our economic ties are very cordial - I am typing this out on a Benq monitor.

also tibet must have a full consulate in delhi with the dalai lama as exiled head of state and india must formally renounce its one-china policy wrt tibet and xinjiang. we should invite the xinjiang uighurs to select a Khalifa from the ranks in turkey or idlib and send him over here with full diplomatic protocol accorded :lol:


Nope, we don't. In fact even Panama went back on the dip link with Taiwan recently (rumors that China bathed them and washed them with cash deals and promise of more coming... ). I think about 20 small / tiny countries have dip reln with Taiwan - a few in Africa, Tuvalu etc etc.

We should do two things - been a strong proponent on them earlier too:

a. Deliberately disintegrate the one China policy. Time we broke it and show Chinas true color to the world - we have a vantage point in both history ad geography (The subcontinent perhaps crept up and hit the Tibetan plate for a reason, eons back). We need to do all the moves to show Chinas double speak and question their deplorable moves and nefarious plans. I think Modi's term is attempting to do a lot of things right. Boy, am I glad its a leader with a pair at the helm and not the Congi types currently at the top. (Tibet will come really handy in achieving. So will arming Vietnam or having a more nuanced strategy in SCS)

b. We need to start treating the near neighbors a lot better. We have doodled for a very long time with some very appealing policies. If anything, Chinese behavior is even worse with their neighbors - we need to keep showing that every time we speak with the near neighbors (think BD and China asking the soft loans to be converted to a higher interest loan). We need to have a more encompassing win-win policy and win back a lot of our neighbors.

We need our strategic depth and also start shaping the media narrative!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 16 Jul 2017 16:30

SSridhar wrote:Me too. That's not what I said either.

Even the Modi government seems to agree with the assessment of the UPA that this alliance is needed. There is simply no truth that this emerging alliance does not exist. So, there should be a reason why Modi is also persisting, in fact investing more, in this alliance.


Do you think that we will need to be part of the quad even for getting access to logistics support or ISR?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 17:42

shiv wrote:We are there all year round controlling DoKa La and Batang La

We are just next door in Sikkim, but if it snows in the plateau, then the Chinese have no place to go except the steep slopes toward Yadong to retreat to for safety. So we can supply Doka La all year long, not so for them.

I predict they will withdraw in winter without declaring anything and will be back again in Spring, if a war does not happen before they withdraw.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 16 Jul 2017 17:46

cases like these should be widely pubilicised by msm India
Liu Xiaobo was innocent, he died for us, says Chinese film maker
Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, considered a dissentient by China for his pro-democracy activism, died of liver cancer on July 13
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-new ... iIXrM.html

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby fanne » 16 Jul 2017 18:24

I am laughing at china having 5:1 economic advantage over India, let the Chinese (or their Indian apologist) convince TSP, where we have 7:1 economic advantage to not mess with India and china can only remind us 1962 (we can remind them 1967), we can remind TSP of 1947, 65, 71 and 99.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chetak » 16 Jul 2017 20:08

SSridhar wrote:A Government of India servant, like the magistrate of Darjeeling, could not have met the Chinese Ambassador without authorization from GoI.It is against service rules to do so without clearance. I am not even sure if the Chinese ambassador could have travelled to Darjeeling without notifying GoI.


I am sure that all the requisite permissions were taken by the SDM. The question is why did the han meet the SDM?? This is tantamount to interference in the internal affairs of India.

I have never heard of an ambassador meeting some low level baboo(n) like an SDM, especially in a troubled area.

I am equally sure that the GoI is fully informed about the discussions in the said meeting.

meeting mamta banoo and pinarayi vijayan is unfortunate.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 16 Jul 2017 20:17

chetak wrote:meeting mamta banoo and pinarayi vijayan is unfortunate.

Shows Chinese desperation and an intent to send a message to scare the wits out of the Narendra Modi govt that Mamata, Budhoo and Vijayan will topple the Indian government. I think our hosting the Dalai Lama is not curable even with Burnol

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 16 Jul 2017 20:35

Every day that Indian troops are on Doklam is a day of shame for this super-power. What kind of lessons are the observers learning?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby hanumadu » 16 Jul 2017 20:46

Bade wrote:
shiv wrote:We are there all year round controlling DoKa La and Batang La

We are just next door in Sikkim, but if it snows in the plateau, then the Chinese have no place to go except the steep slopes toward Yadong to retreat to for safety. So we can supply Doka La all year long, not so for them.

I predict they will withdraw in winter without declaring anything and will be back again in Spring, if a war does not happen before they withdraw.


Can't we demolish the roads they built while they retreat in the winter? We can occupy the entire disputed area and prevent them from returning.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby A Deshmukh » 16 Jul 2017 20:47

chetak wrote:The question is why did the han meet the SDM?? This is tantamount to interference in the internal affairs of India.

+1. we can expel the chini ambassador for interference in the country.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 20:55

Do we know if the amby did not have permission?

Just as a though experiment, if an amby is given permission to visit a district in say Karnataka who from state government side will interface with the amby while he is in the district hanji? Me thinks it will most likely be the DM/SDM.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 22:03

So why would the Chinese ambassador be given permission to visit the Darjeeling DM and Mamata when Mamata is at loggerheads with the Gorkhaland movement ? This sounds more like a cock and bull story to me. If he went to Darjeeling post June 9th, then he had to be escorted by Bengal Police all the way to the DM's office as people were being evacuated by then out of town due to riots. Mamata is on record claiming outside interference (read China) in the unrest in the hills, so why would she provide such a service. Makes no sense.

That story is a plant.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 22:07

hanumadu wrote:Can't we demolish the roads they built while they retreat in the winter? We can occupy the entire disputed area and prevent them from returning.

Why not use the same roads to enter Chumbi valley and cut them off entirely (from Haa valley) at first sign of Spring if they do that instead. Will have all of 2018 to fight a local war. :D

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 22:13

Bade wrote:So why would the Chinese ambassador be given permission to visit the Darjeeling DM and Mamata when Mamata is at loggerheads with the Gorkhaland movement ? This sounds more like a cock and bull story to me. If he went to Darjeeling post June 9th, then he had to be escorted by Bengal Police all the way to the DM's office as people were being evacuated by then out of town due to riots. Mamata is on record claiming outside interference (read China) in the unrest in the hills, so why would she provide such a service. Makes no sense.

That story is a plant.

http://in.china-embassy.org/eng/gdxw/t1460615.htm
Ambassador Luo Zhaohui Meets with the District Magistrate of Darjeeling - 2017/04/30

Image
On April 30, Ambassador Luo Zhaohui and his wife Dr. Jiang Yili met with Ms. Joyoshi Das Gupta, District Magistrate of Darjeeling during their visit to the district.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 22:20

So this was before the current unrest.

That looks like a perfect tourist picture with everyone smiling, with no signs of tension.
Last edited by Bade on 16 Jul 2017 22:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 22:24

Yes 2 months old. So it is journalistic liberty with the news? or was there another one just recently? Did the Chinese ambassador visit Darjeeling twice in 2 months? I doubt that.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Yayavar » 16 Jul 2017 22:26

DavidD wrote:
rsingh wrote:There was a poster (RishiRishi IIRC) who told that BR is accessible in China. Is it possible to make a China specific thread for Chinese. Secondly is there any way of breaking great bullshit wall that blocks free flow of information. Hold on free and true information is biggest weapon China has.


It's not accessible in China, at least not the last time I went back in 2014. I tried from various locales in Beijing and Wuxi, all blocked.


hongkong?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 22:27

At best it can be classified as a testing the waters mission, perhaps....but they put it on their website. So all official only from what one can tell. I am sure such visits are common to such destinations.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 22:35

Ok this is how news is manufactured ...

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... d-4752323/
Ever since the stand-off between India and China, the movements of Chinese Ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui have aroused curiosity. Zhaohui not only called on Rahul Gandhi but has also met other Opposition leaders: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, former Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi, his son Gaurav. He also met former national security advisor Shivshankar Menon and even the Darjeeling district magistrate.

With "Ever since the stand-off" a time marker has been inserted into your thinking to read the rest as following afterwards. And it ends with "He also met ... even the Darjeeling district magistrate."

So now it is easy to read the meeting to have occurred after the stand-off.

Bade
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 22:43

Also Global Times cannot make up its mind. Too many heads talking at odds with each other ?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 621523.cms
"China should be calm seeing India's rise. To cope with competition from India, China could start working on a more effective growth strategy for the new era now," it said.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 16 Jul 2017 22:50

One word. Anxiety!

For various reasons and at multiple levels.
Last edited by pankajs on 16 Jul 2017 22:52, edited 1 time in total.

schinnas
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 16 Jul 2017 22:52

Unless GoI wanted to allow the meeting to see what the Cheena man is up to.

That said, the key callout of Coomi Kapoor's article wasn't the ambassadors meetings, but that of his wife's trip to Bhutan. All these meetings of the ambassador here might have inadvertently served as a smokescreen that covered up the real meeting cheena had with Bhutan royals and influential decision makers there.

One would get to learn the stuff RAW and MEA is made off in the months to come. Hope it doesn't disappoint us Jingo's.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 16 Jul 2017 23:09

Deans wrote:DavidD, My understanding is that there is conscription for college students. This started as an experiment some 15 years ago but today there are
around 150,000+ college students inducted into the PLA each year. The intent was to provide the PLA with a cadre of technically competent people.
It is this group that has inadequate combat training, because whatever little training time there is is divided between political lectures and combat training.


This "conscription" has been around for a lot longer than 15 years I believe. College students spend the first like 4 weeks of their college career doing military training, then they get along with their studies. It's more of a public relations, know what the military life is like kind of exercise. Actual college grad cadets are recruited, not conscripted. With the social structure in China it'd cause an uproar if intellectuals are forced to serve in the military, I'm not sure if that's ever happened in any significant scale even in times of war.

pankajs wrote:Let me state the current position on these three points.
1. Most supplies for the landlocked Bhutan is from India and most of the exports are to India.
2. India-Butan border is without disputes, demarcated and peaceful and thus worry free for Bhutan.
3. Bhutan and India have agreed to take each others sensitivities into account and not allow their territory to be used against the other. From memory so may not be exact words but you get the gist.

Suppose Bhutan wants to cut a deal with China *behind* India's back. Now in light of the 3 points listed above.
1. Will such a move fetch peace for Bhutan?
2. Will it solve their boundary problem?
3. Will it improve Bhutans position?

The answer to all of the above is a big NO. it will just replace the current problem with another FAR bigger problem with India.
1. While Bhutan can diversify its trade in the long run and at a cost, in the short run an *issue* with India will cause a lot of suffering and certainly no peace.
2. What prevents the Indo-Bhutanese border from suddenly becoming disputed? For arguments sake, lets assume India claims a wide swathe of Bhutanese territory to preserve its cushion wrt the chicken's neck. Will Bhutan then call in the Chinese to help oust India? And will such a move bring peace to Bhutan or will it make it the military battleground for Indian and Chinese forces?
3. If India decides to move on Bhutan with or without the involvement of the Chinese will it improve Bhutans position wrt now?

While Bhutanese can decide for themselves any move that ignores India's concerns or imperils it's security will doubly impact Bhutan in a negative way. Any move away from status quo will only bring conflict to Bhutan.

Are the Bhutanese such duffers that they think putting India's security at risk will not invite a response? The farts that purport to speak on behalf of the Bhutanese are actually speaking on behalf of the Chinese.


You're misinterpreting Bhutanese intentions and underestimating their ingenuity. Your post essentially states, like many others' opinion, that Bhutan needs to choose sides. However, they don't want to choose sides. They don't want to hurt Indian interests nor Chinese ones, they just want to stay the heck out of this conflict. What they did essentially is that they acquiesced to Chinese claims, but also allowed the Indians pass through their territory to protect their interests, telling both sides that Bhutan can't withstand their pressures so do what you two want with Doklam. As I've said before, all that's changed is that Bhutan is no longer the buffer, the cloak that covers what's really a Sino-Indian dispute, which is what Bhutan wants.

For decades China worked hard to split Bhutan and India. As China made some headways in recent year India has increasingly stepped up the pressure to split Bhutan and China. With one move Bhutan has succeeded in ridding itself from the conflict. By throwing the tantalizing hot potato to China, India and China are now directly at loggerheads at Doklam, and Bhutan can be the spectator it always wanted to be. Brilliant move, I'd say.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 16 Jul 2017 23:18

Like I said, Bhutan has to cede to India just the tri-junction area adjoining the tip of the dagger on its side of the valley till the Doklam plateau where they are willing to cede land to China, and perhaps we can all call it a day for now at least. This way the Siliguri corridor gains some more width for India, though it is all hill country and reserve forest area from google maps.


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