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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 31 Oct 2017 03:26

Peregrine wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:This can give us the excuse to pull out of of WIT saying Indus system is disrupted
Aditya_V Ji :

Sir Ji, I am not aware of the connection between Brahmaputra and Indus. Please advise of the connection.
Cheers Image


Same which was told in the story of Lamb and Wolf.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 31 Oct 2017 12:35

Peregrine wrote:Sir Ji, I am not aware of the connection between Brahmaputra and Indus. Please advise of the connection.


Why, they both originate in the vicinity of each other near Lake Manasarovar at Mt. Kailash.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 31 Oct 2017 13:12

If Pakistan uses China against India in the Masood Azhar case so as to hurt our counter-terrorism operations, we should use China's Brahmaputra misadventure to hurt Pakistan in the IWT case. After all, Terroristan is today a part of China (what we don't know is whether it is the 23rd province or the sixth autonomous region of China) and are indistinguishable from each other.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby prahaar » 31 Oct 2017 13:47

Pakistan and NK are China's LET and Taliban.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Deans » 31 Oct 2017 13:58

I just spent 9 days in the Sikkim, Siliguri corridor area. Went upto 17300 ft at Gurudomgar lake and the furthese point by road in North Sikkim,
as well as Nathu La. The army's presence there is huge. I won't get into for e.g. the number of infantry battalions in a sector for obvious reasons. Suffice to say the Sukhna based 33 corps is deployed well forward of its peacetime locations. Armoured vehicles and artillery are deployed. I spoke to jawans who are pretty confident of kicking Chinese butt.

The difficulty of deploying a large force in this area can only be appreciated when on the ground and not by armchair analysis. Everything from
road strengthening/ widening, to water and fuel supply to accommodation and working at high altitudes have to be planned for. These will be even bigger factors on the Chinese side.
The biggest problem for 33rd corps in my view, is the poor quality of the mountain roads in Sikkim. This seems to be getting addressed with some
urgency judging from the frantic pace of road improvement/ widening/ clearing operations by BRO & GREF. Bridges have been strengthened by
army engineers. A lot of temporary structures can be seen in a belt 20 km from the LAC, to accommodate additional troops, equipment, fuel and ammo etc. The one positive impact of Doklam IMO, is the experience the army has got in deploying forward and the improvements in road infrastructure.
Pakyong airport near Gangtok is expected to be commissioned shortly. While it is a civil airport, it can be an additional airfield for the IAF.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 31 Oct 2017 15:14

Peregrine wrote:Sir Ji, I am not aware of the connection between Brahmaputra and Indus. Please advise of the connection.
SSridhar wrote:Why, they both originate in the vicinity of each other near Lake Manasarovar at Mt. Kailash.
SSridhar Ji :
Many Thanks Indeed.

If the Chinese "Join" the Two Rivers then?

Cheers :cry:

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Aditya_V » 31 Oct 2017 15:52

Deans-> looks like a nice trip, North of Gurudongmar lake it is pretty flat to Tibet going into the Gamba area, possible thatthe CHinese can play mischief in that area.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 31 Oct 2017 16:06

X Posted on the IWT THREAD

SSridhar Ji, Prem Ji & Adita_V Ji :

China denies report of plan to build tunnel to divert Brahmaputra waters

BEIJING: China today rejected as "false and untrue" a media report that it was planning to build a 1,000- km long tunnel to divert water from the Brahmaputra river in Tibet close to Arunachal Pradesh to the parched Xinjiang region.

Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post yesterday said that Chinese engineers were testing techniques that could be used to build the tunnel, the world's longest.

"This is untrue. This is a false report," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told a media briefing when asked about the report.

China will continue to attach great importance to cross- border river cooperation, she said.

According to the report, the proposed tunnel, which would drop down from the world's highest plateau in multiple sections connected by waterfalls, would provide water in China's largest administrative division , comprising vast swathes of deserts and dry grasslands.

The water would be diverted from the Yarlung Tsangpo River in southern Tibet, which turns into the river Brahmaputra once it enters India, to the Taklamakan desert in Xinjiang, the report had said.

India as riparian state has already flagged its concerns to China about various dams being built by it on the Brahmaputra river, which is known in China as Yarlung Tsangpo.

Beijing has been assuring India and Bangladesh that its dams were not designed to storing water.

Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 31 Oct 2017 16:36

it was a calculated leak of plans in the drawer to observe our reaction and rattle the cage.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 31 Oct 2017 17:25

Peregrine wrote:If the Chinese "Join" the Two Rivers then?

The Chinese technological marvel has been doing wonders everywhere.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Shanmukh » 31 Oct 2017 17:32

SSridhar wrote:If Pakistan uses China against India in the Masood Azhar case so as to hurt our counter-terrorism operations, we should use China's Brahmaputra misadventure to hurt Pakistan in the IWT case. After all, Terroristan is today a part of China (what we don't know is whether it is the 23rd province or the sixth autonomous region of China) and are indistinguishable from each other.


The Pak jarnails will push the impoverished peasants with TFR of 10 into border districts of India. Already rural Kutch is collapsing, down to 70% Indic in 0-4 age group, compared to 82% Indic in the 65-69 age group. Same goes for border districts of Rajasthan. Barmer, Jaisalmer & Bikaner all have Muslim growth rates through the roof. You will see a repeat of the Bangladesh scenario in Gujarat, Rajasthan & Punjab. The only reason it has not already happened is that the illegal Pak immigration is still a trickle. In the coming years, it will become a flood & our governments will do nothing (cheap labour, very useful).

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 31 Oct 2017 17:40

Beijing seen poised for fresh South China Sea assertiveness - Reuters, ToI
China has quietly undertaken more construction and reclamation in the South China Sea, recent satellite images show, and is likely to more powerfully reassert its claims over the waterway soon, regional diplomats and military officers say.

With global attention focused on North Korea and Beijing engrossed in its Party Congress, tensions in the South China Sea have slipped from the headlines in recent months.

But with none of the underlying disputes resolved and new images reviewed by Reuters showing China continuing to develop facilities on North and Tree islands in the contested Paracel islands, experts say the vital trade route remains a global flashpoint.

Some expect China to land its first deployments of jet fighters onto its runways in the Spratly islands in coming months, while regional military officers say it is already using the new facilities to expand naval and coast guard deployments deep into Southeast Asia.

"They've built these extensive facilities and both Chinese civilian and PLA experts have always made it clear that when the strategic time is right, they're going to start using them more fully," said Bonnie Glaser, a China security expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"I think it is a question of when, rather than if, China will start to assert its interests more forcefully in the South China Sea ... and that is likely to be at a time of China's choosing," Glaser told Reuters.

Rival claimant Vietnam, meanwhile, is nearing completion of reclamations and an extended runway on its base on Spratly Island, the satellite images show.

Calm after the storm

The build-up of the Spratlys symbolises China's growing assertiveness over the South China Sea during President Xi Jinping's first term and was highlighted in his address to the Communist Party Congress this month.

"Construction on islands and reefs in the South China Sea has seen steady progress," Xi told the Congress.

The issue is likely to come up during US President Donald Trump's visit to Asia, which begins this week.

"We remain concerned about tensions in the South China Sea, in particular those caused by land reclamation and militarization of disputed outposts and the willingness of some to resort to coercive tactics to assert their claims," said Michael Cavey, a spokesman for the US State Department.

"We have consistently called on China, as well as other claimants, to refrain from any further land reclamation, construction of new facilities, and militarization of the disputed features."

Responding to Reuters' questions, Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman Ren Guoqiang reiterated the islands were irrefutably Chinese territory.

"You can't say that the construction on our islands and reefs in the South China Sea and the building of necessary defensive facilities is an expansion of military deployments," he said.

"We believe that at present the situation in the South China Sea is generally good, and all relevant parties should work hard together to protect the peace and stability of the South China Sea."

China's ambassador to Washington, Cui Tiankai, said on Monday the United States should not try to "interfere" in regional efforts to resolve disputes in the South China Sea.


China has been seeking to soothe fellow claimant the Philippines and accelerating talks with the wider ASEAN grouping, amid concerns in Washington about the long-term security of the waterway through which some $3 trillion in trade a year passes.

In a speech in Singapore earlier this month, the most senior US military chief in the region said even while Washington pushed Beijing for help on North Korea, it would still hold China accountable for actions that countered international rules and norms.

"We also want Beijing to do more to stop provocative actions in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, where the Chinese are building up combat power and positional advantage in an attempt to assert de-facto sovereignty over disputed maritime features," Admiral Harry Harris, commander of the US Pacific Command, said.

China claims much of the area through its controversial nine-dash line, which overlaps rival maritime claims by Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei.

Tactics not strategy

A recent study by the US government-linked RAND Corp weighing the risks of a conflict between the United States and China moved the South China Sea up its list of potential flashpoints.

Placing it above Taiwan but below the Korean peninsula
, the study notes the waterway has "become the unanticipated focal point of US-Chinese ... rivalry".

While the Pentagon has embarked on more regular freedom-of-navigation patrols, or FONOPS, to challenge Beijing's claims, some analysts believe Washington is struggling to counter China's creeping domination of the area.

"China appears to be pursuing a well-thought out and long-term strategy to achieve dominion over the South China Sea while America responds with ad hoc tactical manoeuvres," said Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute.

"FONOPS are tactics not strategy, and they have not made China rethink its plans for the South China Sea one iota."

Ni Lexiong, a naval expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said there was little need for China to dramatically increase deployments now, but much depended on the actions others.

"As long as others don't intentionally go and provoke clashes, things will be fine," he added. "The issue is that some countries, like the United States, go and stir things up."

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Deans » 31 Oct 2017 21:52

Aditya_V wrote:Deans-> looks like a nice trip, North of Gurudongmar lake it is pretty flat to Tibet going into the Gamba area, possible thatthe CHinese can play mischief in that area.


The section of the Gurudomgar road (see google maps), starting about 10 km before Gurudomgar lake, is now a metalled stretch and goes upto the border. There are several army formations in the area including armor. My sense is that we have posts on the high ground North and East of Gurudomgar lake, overlooking Tibet.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 01 Nov 2017 00:03

In this report,

https://theprint.in/2017/10/26/exclusive-doklam-satellite-imagery-chinese-troops/

Was anyone of you able to find helicopter landing marks? or photos of Attack helis?

I could not find it and was wondering if Chinis have problems using attack choppers at these heights. Like we had in Kargil.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby JayS » 01 Nov 2017 00:40

SSridhar wrote:
Peregrine wrote:Sir Ji, I am not aware of the connection between Brahmaputra and Indus. Please advise of the connection.


Why, they both originate in the vicinity of each other near Lake Manasarovar at Mt. Kailash.


OT, but this reminds me of an interesting thing, IIRC its from Savarkar's book. Our land is described aptly by the word Sindhu because its bound by Sindhu river from west, Brahmaputra, another name for which is also Sindhu, from East and Sea from south, which again is called Sindhu in Sanskrit. I never really cross verified about Brahmaputra being called as Sindhu though.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Nov 2017 08:29

Trump to push for ‘open Indo-Pacific’ - Varghesee K George, The Hindu
U.S. President Donald Trump will “present the U.S. vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region” in a speech in Da Nang, Vietnam on November 10, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEOs meet, the White House said on Tuesday.

Mr. Trump’s visit to the region — from November 3 to 14 — will be the longest by a U.S President in 25 years, and will “underscore the long-standing U.S commitment to the region”, a senior administration official said. Mr. Trump will travel to Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam and the Philippines, and this will be the largest number of countries covered by a U.S. President in a single trip to the region, since George W. Bush in 2003.

The official said Mr. Trump’s visit will make the “message clear to China that for trade relations between the two countries to be sustainable, it has to be free and fair”.

“It is very important to note that the President is making a long term commitment to the region, based on the shared principles of rules-based, high-standard, economic system and reduction of chronic trade deficits,” the official said.

Market principles

The official repeatedly said that countries in the Indo-Pacific region must stick to an economic system based on “market principles”, and accused China of undermining principles of market.

At the recent congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping had asked countries to emulate the Chinese model of development, and shun Western liberalism.

“China must provide fair and reciprocal treatment, not just to the U.S. but all countries in the region”, the official said, accusing Beijing of “predatory investment and economic practices”.
He said China’s unwillingness to do so “reflects a slowdown, or even a retreat in China’s progress toward a market driven economy”.

The official said the Chinese economy has become so big that its practices are negatively impacting not only the U.S. but all other countries in the region. The President will press China on these issues, the official said.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Nov 2017 20:52

Extra-regional nations maintaining near permanent presence in Indian Ocean: Nirmala Sitharaman - Economic Times
Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today voiced concern over increased militarisation and extra- regional nations maintaining a near permanent presence in the Indian Ocean region on "some pretext or the other".

This sort of militarisation increases complexities for the countries in the region, she said.

"The Indian Ocean has been peaceful over past few decades. However, our collective decision to capitalise on this or not and how we counter the emerging challenges will significantly influence the regional peace and security in future," she said.

The minister, who did not name any country, was addressing the inaugural function of the Goa Maritime Conclave, which aims to address the maritime challenges in the region.

An increased militarisation in the Indian Ocean has manifested in two interconnected forms in the region, Sitharaman said.

"We have also witnessed extra-regional nations maintain a near permanent presence within the region on one pretext or the other," she said.

"In order to sustain such a presence through operational turnaround, these countries, which are extra-regional, are creating naval outposts as well as dual use infrastructure in the region. This sort of militarisation increases the complexities for the countries of this region," Sitharaman said.


The defence minister also expressed concern over the emergence of non-state actors in the region.

"The concept of non-state actors is not something new as the countries are dealing with this issue both at land and at sea since time immemorial," she said.

"However, the recent surge in the number of non-state actors, when juxtaposed with the support they enjoy from certain states, their enhanced reach as well as access to the resources has brought the issue to the forefront and demands a firm action," she said.

Referring to the 'blue economy', the Union minister said the sea bed has emerged as a futuristic and abundant source of relatively pure minerals, thereby adding to the ocean's economic potential.

"The progress achieved and the efforts to harness clean and renewable energy sources through off shore energy firms add a whole new dimension to the possible economic and strategic impact of the ocean on countries of this region," Sitharaman said.

While it is good that the compulsion of globalisation has enabled economics to shape relationships between nations, the opaqueness in strategic intent by certain nations is preventing these very relations from evolving beyond a transactional nature, she added.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 01 Nov 2017 22:39

SSridhar wrote:Extra-regional nations maintaining near permanent presence in Indian Ocean: Nirmala Sitharaman - Economic Times
Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today voiced concern over increased militarisation and extra- regional nations maintaining a near permanent presence in the Indian Ocean region on "some pretext or the other".

This sort of militarisation increases complexities for the countries in the region, she said.

"The Indian Ocean has been peaceful over past few decades. However, our collective decision to capitalise on this or not and how we counter the emerging challenges will significantly influence the regional peace and security in future," she said.

The minister, who did not name any country, was addressing the inaugural function of the Goa Maritime Conclave, which aims to address the maritime challenges in the region.

An increased militarisation in the Indian Ocean has manifested in two interconnected forms in the region, Sitharaman said.

"We have also witnessed extra-regional nations maintain a near permanent presence within the region on one pretext or the other," she said.

"In order to sustain such a presence through operational turnaround, these countries, which are extra-regional, are creating naval outposts as well as dual use infrastructure in the region. This sort of militarisation increases the complexities for the countries of this region," Sitharaman said.


The defence minister also expressed concern over the emergence of non-state actors in the region.

"The concept of non-state actors is not something new as the countries are dealing with this issue both at land and at sea since time immemorial," she said.

"However, the recent surge in the number of non-state actors, when juxtaposed with the support they enjoy from certain states, their enhanced reach as well as access to the resources has brought the issue to the forefront and demands a firm action," she said.

Referring to the 'blue economy', the Union minister said the sea bed has emerged as a futuristic and abundant source of relatively pure minerals, thereby adding to the ocean's economic potential.

"The progress achieved and the efforts to harness clean and renewable energy sources through off shore energy firms add a whole new dimension to the possible economic and strategic impact of the ocean on countries of this region," Sitharaman said.

While it is good that the compulsion of globalisation has enabled economics to shape relationships between nations, the opaqueness in strategic intent by certain nations is preventing these very relations from evolving beyond a transactional nature, she added.


Well we know that. The point is what are we going to do about it

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 02 Nov 2017 00:17

True!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 06:23

Iyersan wrote:Well we know that. The point is what are we going to do about it

The first thing to a solution is to 'know' the problem. Solution would then follow, in most cases.

From the way we we have handled Terroristan (better in the present regime notwithstanding), I have always wondered whether we 'knew' what the problem was.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 07:02

US, India seek to pierce China terror shield - Indrani Bagchi, ToI
After China put up a virtually permanent roadblock for proscribing Masood Azhar by the UNSC, India and US are mulling options for their next steps.

In December, Indian and US officials will meet for the first time for a dialogue on coordinating terrorist designations by both countries. The two sides will discuss options of keeping terrorists and terror groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad under pressure.

This will include discussions on the next terrorist that will be put up for sanctions by the UNSC's 1267 committee.

The new consultation mechanism was decided during the Modi-Trump summit this summer.
In the joint statement that followed the summit, both sides, "committed to strengthen cooperation against terrorist threats from groups including al-Qaida, ISIS, JeM, Lashkar-e-Taiba, D-Company, and their affiliates. ... the leaders welcomed a new consultation mechanism on domestic and international terrorist designations listing proposals."

For instance, Abdul Rauf Asghar, Masood Azhar's brother, may find his name on the next list for sanctions. He was charged in the Pathankot terror attack. Azhar's second brother, Maulana Ibrahim Athar Alvi is accused of masterminding the IC-814 hijack which forced India to release Azhar from jail in return for the passengers of the jet.

India has a list of other terror leaders operating with the support of Pakistan's military-intelligence establishment, who India wants to put up on the 1267 committee.


India wants China to continue to shield Pakistan at the multilateral level — if Beijing blocks sanctions against deadly terrorists repeatedly, it could succeed in painting itself as a supporter of global terrorism. Chinese officials reportedly expressed confidence that they would not be pressured on Azhar by the US given the US needed their support on keeping an increasingly hostile North Korea in check. China's decision came even as Beijing itself demanded extra security from Pakistan for its new envoy from ETIM terrorists — many of them trained in Pakistan.

The joint statement added that India and United States would work together to "prevent terrorist travel and to disrupt global recruitment efforts by expanding intelligence-sharing and operational-level counterterrorism cooperation."

As part of the travel vetting programmesin both countries, India and US had also decided to exchange information on "known and suspected terrorists for travel screening." The likes of David Headley, who conducted numerous reconnaissance trips to India to prepare for the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, could appear on the Indian security radar.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 02 Nov 2017 09:09

"..demands a firm response" said NS.Let's hope that the firm response to these outside intruders is a huge beefing up of the IN.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 02 Nov 2017 10:23

^^^no need for huge build-up sir, just do a doklam in Indian ocean, (sink a Chinese naval asset, and say sorry in Indian ocean) that would tell the Chinese, who's the boss of India's ocean.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 11:23

TK, even the USN wouldn't do that deliberately and you want us to do so? Let's be pragmatic. Let's first catch a Chinese trawler.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 12:32

In first summit after Doklam standoff, India celebrates Bhutan ties - ToI
Signalling an important milestone in their close relations, India and Bhutan held the first summit after the Doklam crisis+ as Bhutanese king Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk began a three-day visit to India.

Sources said while China dominated the talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and King Wangchuk, there was also an intensive discussion on India's assistance to Bhutan's development, particularly the hydroelectric sector. This had run into some difficulties lately, with rupee shortage hitting the Bhutanese hard.

The Indian statement said, "His Majesty the King conveyed appreciation for the invaluable support that the Government of India provides for Bhutan's socio-economic development."

In a statement, the MEA said, "The two sides agreed to celebrate in the year 2018 the Golden Jubilee of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between the two countries in a befitting manner. The President of India extended an invitation to Their Majesties, the King and Queen of Bhutan, to pay a State visit to India during the golden jubilee year. His Majesty the King of Bhutan accepted the invitation."

Modi hosted the royal couple at dinner on Wednesday though the cynosure of all eyes was little royal, the Gyalsey, or Prince Jigme Namgyel Wangchuk who at one year and a few months is on his first state visit.

The royal couple met President Ram Nath Kovind earlier in the evening while external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj had called on the King.

The manner in which both India and Bhutan stood together to address the situation in Doklam "is a clear testimony to our friendship", a Rashtrapati Bhavan statement said. The President added that the security concerns of India and Bhutan are indivisible and mutual.

The statement added that the President "conveyed deep appreciation for the King of Bhutan's personal involvement and guidance and the support provided by Bhutan in addressing the recent situation in the Doklam area". The president said India and Bhutan share exemplary bilateral relations.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 02 Nov 2017 13:06

SSridhar wrote:TK, even the USN wouldn't do that deliberately and you want us to do so? Let's be pragmatic. Let's first catch a Chinese trawler.

SS sir, US can't do Doklam also. US doesn't have the advantages that India has.

For example if US has to do a doklam, it has to first ask India to not interfere, then US has to have boots on the ground (all trained and acclamatised boots, then hardware etc). On the ground means in Bhutan. For that it has to have Bhutan as a vassal, then only they can do a doklam.

US has trained boots and also hardware, but doesn't have the diplomatic strength nor political strength nor political will.

Doklam is strategic strength of India as India could do a Bangladesh to Tibet at any time, it's just a "jhalak" that we have shown because of the new rejuvenated political will.

Similarly, it's time we did the doklam in Indian ocean, and say sorry, we didn't mean it, please forgive us and all the "natak" and defuse the situation, a 'la doklam. That only India could do. It will permanently dent the Chinese confidence in Indian ocean.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 15:26

TKiran, you are stretching 'Doklam' comparison too far and twisting what I said about USN to an unrelated domain, namely a ground confrontation. Out of context.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 02 Nov 2017 15:57

SS sir, the point I was trying to make is that, just because US is 50 years ahead of any blue water Navy from its nearest one is not sufficient reason to scare China in Indian ocean, there has to be a reason to do so. There's no context to do so.

But India has such context, but not sufficient strength. Strategically it has many advantages in Indian ocean and even though it has less strength, whatever strength we have in Navy is sufficient to scare away China in Indian ocean region, also we have an endorsement from US that Indian ocean is India's ocean.

That's the reason I am advocating India to do a doklam in Indian ocean and show China it's limitations.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby JE Menon » 02 Nov 2017 16:16

TK, why do you want to show China it's limitations unilaterally? Isn't it wiser for the dragon to breathe fire, and then show the multiple sources of water?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 02 Nov 2017 16:49

Precisely for the same reason for which we did Doklam. It was imposed on China by India. It gives no advantage whatsoever to China even if they have great roads to Doklam, stopping China construction of roads is just an excuse, but the intention was to tell China that we don't have any inhibitions of doing a Bangladesh to Tibet at any time, and you can do diddly squat about it.

That's very important in statecraft, actually the neighbours have to continually test the resolve of the powerful neighbour by encroaching into their territory. If for any reason, they show frustration and give up, occupy the space.

This was the strategy of China. But India has shown that, they don't have patience any more and political will to go even for military solution. That has baffled China, and won respect from US that Indian patience shown so far is not actually pusillanimity but a genuine desire for peace.

The same thing should happen in Indian ocean too. If we don't do this now, the Chinese will not show any respect for India, and respect is very important in statecraft. (H & D)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby JE Menon » 02 Nov 2017 17:25

>>Precisely for the same reason for which we did Doklam. It was imposed on China by India.

And there lies the problem. It wasn't imposed on China by India. China changed the status quo. India acted in a manner that restored status quo ante.

So my question remains.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 02 Nov 2017 17:40

US has a *permanent* presence on the Korean peninsular and Japan. It has continuous and sufficient presence in the south China sea. While China has claimed the whole sea USN still goes in, around and out regularly. So what has China done till date to push USN out and keep them out? Zlich, Nada, nothing.

Neither China nor US are in the mood to have a direct clash but both are maneuvering around each other, flanking and out flanking. The Chinese building of Island and making Philippines break away from the US too falls under the same strategy. NO direct action by one or the other party.

Even China, for all its strength, has choose not to directly confront US in its own backyard! The Chinese are not fools and if anything we should learn from them and not start a conflict even while building up for a conflict in the future.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 02 Nov 2017 17:53

China was changing status quo in anticipation that India's resolve will be weakened for the last 2 decades, barring some high profile such misadventures, nothing came to light. So what is so debilitating for India if they built some roads in such places? Zilch. We had to make it clear to China that it's misunderstanding the magnanimity of India for weakness. Bare minimum that we can do is to tell "STOP", in the language that they understand. That was the reason Doklam was done, to tell China "STOP" the nonsense. It took 73 days for China to completely comprehend what India was saying.

Sinking a Chinese naval asset in Indian ocean may not be the only way to say China "Indian ocean is India's ocean", we can create an artificial excuse to block traffic on some pretext for a week or two, that can also make China STOP this nonsense of encroachment in Indian ocean.

We need not fight a war, still project our power. Projecting power is very useful for states. For example, in 1998, everyone knows that India is a nuclear power, but the world recognised as such only after Buddha smiled. It's easier to preserve peace by projecting power, than hiding it. India is a powerful country with genuine longing for peace. That message has to be delivered to China, otherwise we will be treated as Philippines.

In olden days, kings used to do ashwamedha yagas as means of power projection. Power projection is for peace not for war.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 18:05

JE Menon wrote:>>Precisely for the same reason for which we did Doklam. It was imposed on China by India.

And there lies the problem. It wasn't imposed on China by India. China changed the status quo. India acted in a manner that restored status quo ante.

So my question remains.

Exactly, JEM.

PLAN has to do something like that in the IOR and then it can be challenged by IN. Not until then. Mere passage through IOR or extracting nodules from seabed or setting up bases are business as usual. India can do similarly in Indo-China Sea. In fact, IN frequently visits ports all over Indo-China Sea. It conducts exercises in East China & Indo-China sea as well. In fact, IN has been doing these things for far longer than PLAN.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 20:41

China blocks moves to list Masood Azhar as global terrorist: Official - PTI
China today for the fourth time blocked India, the US and other nations' bid to list Pakistan- based JeM chief and Pathankot terror attack mastermind Masood Azhar as a global terrorist by the UN, saying "there is no consensus" within the members of the sanctions committee.

A veto-wielding permanent member of the Security Council, China has repeatedly blocked India's move to put a ban on the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief under the Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee of the Council.

The JeM, founded by Azhar, has already been in the UN's list of banned terror outfits.

China had in August extended by three months its technical hold on the the US, France and UK-backed proposal to list Azhar as a global terrorist by the UN after having blocked the move in February this year at the United Nations.

"China has rejected the move as there is no consensus," sources in the Chinese Foreign Ministry told PTI here.

The comment came as the China's three-month-old technical hold on a proposal by the US, France and Britain to list Azhar as a global terrorist was set to lapse today.

The official's comment indicates that China will veto the application in the 1267 Committee of the UN Security Council to allow it to lapse.

Like last year, China first blocked the US application backed by France and the UK, who are also veto wielding members, with a six-month technical hold followed by another three months as per the rules of the Committee.

The application would now lapse as there is no consensus.

Diplomatic sources say China's recurring veto to prevent the UN ban on Azhar poses a major challenge for India, US and other countries.

It is significant that China has rejected US application ahead of US President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing next week during which his new South Asia policy under which Washington is pressuring Pakistan -- China's all weather ally -- to shutdown all safe havens for terrorists.

China has been defending Pakistan, saying that that the world should respect its sacrifices with regard to counter terrorism.

This is the second year in succession that China has blocked the resolution. Last year, China had done the same to stall India's application before the same Committee.

Earlier, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told a media briefing: "we raised a technical hold so as to allow more time for the committee and its members to deliberate on this matter. But there is still absence of consensus on this matter."

Defending China's consistent technical holds, Hua said China's actions are meant to ensure and safeguard the authority and effectiveness of the 1267 Committee of the UN Security Council.

"We will continue to follow the mandate of the Committee and its rules of procedure and remain in constant communication and coordination with the members of the Committee," she said.

To the follow-up questions, Hua said the Committee has its rules. The committee is yet reach the consensus.

"The Committee is yet to reach an agreement. This is a fact," Hua said.

China had in August extended by three months its technical hold on the proposal to list Azhar as a global terrorist after having blocked the move in February this year at the UN.

Hua's remarks indicate that China will continue its policy to block moves by India and other countries led by the US to block Azhar's listing during the second term of Chinese President Xi Jinping, which began over a week ago.

China in the past had asked India to discuss the issue directly with Pakistan in order to reach an understanding on Azhar's listing.

In the last two years, China has stonewalled efforts by India to declare Azhar as a global terrorist.

Last year in March, China was the only member in the 15- nation UN organ to put a hold on India's application with all other 14 members of the Council supporting New Delhi's bid to place Azhar on the 1267 sanctions list that would subject him to an assets freeze and travel ban.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 02 Nov 2017 21:10

There should be semi-official calling of China as as "Terrorism Supporter". Atleast the BJP President should directly call China "Terrorism Supporter". Usually, MSM does a huge number of opinions and columns in any other country. But in India MSM does not have credibility, in fact, you may see some pro-beijing columns in news papers, truely sad.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Hari Seldon » 02 Nov 2017 21:25

Would dearly love to see India taking some action in response to persistent and egregious cheeni behavior.

Doing nothing is == acceptance of biz as usual, i.e. PRC's victory.

I would be OK with imposing massive anti-dumping duties on *all* cheeni imports. Like NM asked desi citizens to suffer some inconvenience during DeMo for the country, can do so again when the cheap imports stop, for the country.

On this score, must admit that modi sarkar has quietly gone about raising hurdles for a variety of cheeni imports. But there's a time for quietness, and a time for at least some plausibly deniable brazen-ness. Or so I hope.

The more we move away from cheeni dependence in any and every sphere, the better for us. Particularly in econ, tech etc.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 02 Nov 2017 21:37

Not saying TKiran’s suggestion of sinking a chini naval vessel is the correct way. Yes even the USN won’t do that because it would open up tit-for-tat on USN vessels from China forces just as it would Indian ones visiting Vietnam, etc.

BUT we have to be willing to go to war when the opportunity presents itself to us. IMHO, we gave up a chance to do that at Doklam. And now the chini are in even greater force there.

When you have a mercantilist power that can outbuild everyone else on earth and which has a strategy of peacetime encrouchment and fait accompli through flooding of money, equipment and resources of any region it covets over time, waiting around is not a strategy.

If you want to wait for Cheen to attack first then you’ll be waiting forever while their ships, aircraft, ports and maybe even artificial islands begin spilling over ftom the SCS into the IOR and establishing through a “persistent presence” de facto jurisdiction in our ocean.

You have to be willing to risk war. If not then the same thing that happened in the SCS will happen in the IOR. It is just a matter of time it takes the chini industrial complex to build enough chit to flood the Indian Ocean.
Last edited by chola on 02 Nov 2017 21:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ArjunPandit » 02 Nov 2017 21:38

Time has come for some danda to mithas bhais too...

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Nov 2017 21:39

Hari Seldon wrote:Would dearly love to see India taking some action in response to persistent and egregious cheeni behavior.

Doing nothing is == acceptance of biz as usual, i.e. PRC's victory.

Yeah, but not sinking a PLAN vessel for simply plying the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean is *NOT* India's Ocean, as some have pointed out. We may want our sphere of influence in IOR not challenged, but we cannot behave irresponsibly.


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