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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 26 Sep 2017 21:35

AdityaM wrote:
Throughout the Doklam standoff, I read here that China was incapable of moving large number troops and heavy weapons, and that they neither had the will. That was the general narrative created here.

The research by "Nitin A Gokhale" tells a different story.


Well, you read it wrong. China has 4 brigades in Tibet. Moving heavy weapons within Tibet is easy. Wherever it is flat, it can move weapons.

What it cannot do:

It does not have enough acclimatized troops in Tibet to counter 12 Indian divisions. Fighting in mountains require 1:5 ratio.

It cannot easily navigate through our positions. Because it is mountainous & narrow, not flat like Tibet.


12k troops can do diddly squat against us in Dolam with we controlling the heights.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 26 Sep 2017 21:37

Phari Dong town as seen in the sat image cannot accommodate 12,000 troops. They could only have been positioned in camps in the flat surrounding plain. If they were really there

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 26 Sep 2017 22:03

I have been playing around with GE 3D and I love it. It truly gives a perspective which the 2d maps don't give.

Dolam road on the GE 2d looks like a normal flat road ending just before our post.

On 3d, it is a completely different perspective. The road is from a valley to the ridge and a zig zig with inclination. The ridges are at tremendous heights.

We dominate the ridges.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby anupmisra » 26 Sep 2017 23:06

As China Piles on Debt, Consumers Seek a Piece of the Action

Over the past eight years, to the world’s growing alarm, China’s big state-owned companies and powerful local governments have borrowed trillions of dollars to get what they want.
Standard & Poor’s on Thursday became the latest voice to warn that China...has piled on too much debt and done it too quickly. The steep increase has the potential to destabilize the country’s financial system, the ratings agency warned.
China’s consumers — once famous for saving rather than spending — are also quickly taking on debt.
Chinese central bank data shows that consumer loans have grown almost 50 percent since the start of last year :eek: , when the government began encouraging more lending to households.
The International Monetary Fund said it expected China’s household debt as a percentage of its economic output to double by 2022 compared with a decade before.
Home mortgages represent a majority of China’s new household loans by value, adding to a surge in real estate prices. Car loans have been growing even faster in percentage terms. And credit card debt is now rising in a country that is otherwise dependent on cash or online transactions.
China will get less of a kick out of consumer debt in the coming 18 months than it did in the past 18 months,” said Louis Kuijs, an economist with Oxford Economics, a British research firm.
Some economists also worry that consumer loans may be a backdoor way for bloated companies to maintain or even expand their capacity.
Chinese leaders envision a time when their country, like the United States, derives a major chunk of its economic growth from people buying homes, cars and appliances. To do that, Chinese households need better access to mortgages, credit cards and other ways to enhance their purchasing power.
Borrowing has been a big help, residents say. Whereas apartments once sold for cash only, many people now offer down payments of between 20 percent and 30 percent and take out mortgages for the rest.
I view the mortgage as a form of savings,” Ms. Li said


Eleven Gin Peg sees lending as a vehicle to spur on the GDP growth. I guess no one wants to know what will happen when the music stops and the piper has to be paid. Until then the common chinis will continue to "wash their hands in the flowing Ganges". You know what I mean.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/25/busi ... umers.html

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Sep 2017 12:33

The CCP has expelled from the party Sun Zhengcai.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 30 Sep 2017 15:11

X Posting it on the Terroristan Thread for the "Terrorist Lurks"

SSridhar Ji : I just did a Double Take - nearly fell out of my chair! What do you make of this? One plus one eleven? Is this a manifestation of Modi Ji's and of course Mother India's STRENGTH? I see it as the Chinese Leadership "Accommodating" India in General and Modi Ji in Particular. What Gives? Do also consider the reference especially to Buddhism!

India, China should start a new chapter: Chinese envoy

NEW DELHI: Chinese envoy to India Luo Zhaohui has said it was time for India and China to turn the old page and start a new chapter, stressing that the countries have made a lot of progress at bilateral level.

He said on Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS Summit in Xiamen earlier this month, and the two leaders sent a clear message of "reconciliation" and "cooperation".

"We should turn the old page and start a new chapter with the same pace and direction. We should dance together. We should make one plus one eleven. China is the largest trading partner of India. We have made a lot of progress at the bilateral level, as well as in international and regional affairs," Luo said.

The Chinese envoy was speaking on the 68th anniversary of founding of the People's Republic of China.

His comments come in the backdrop of the disengagement of Chinese and Indian troops in Dokalam, where the army of the two nations were locked in a stand-off for over two months.

India and China, who went to war in 1962, share an uneasy relationship and territorial dispute is a major bone of contention between the two countries.

The Chinese diplomat also recalled one of his teachers, Prof Xu Fancheng, who lived in Aurobindo Ashram in Puducherry from 1945 to 1978. Xu is known for his work of translating Upanishad, Bhagawad Gita and Shakuntala from Sanskrit to Chinese.

"In our bilateral engagement, there have been thousands of prominent persons like Prof Xu Fancheng, (Buddhist monk) Bodhidharma, Faxian (a Chinese Buddhist monk who travelled to India in the 3rd century) and Rabindranath Tagore.

"We should never forget their contribution and legacies. The history could do a lot of things. Standing on their shoulders, we should do more today," Luo said.

The Chinese envoy added that the speed of Chinese high-speed trains from Beijing to Shanghai was increased from 300 kmph to 350 kmph two weeks ago.

"We have started the feasibility study of hyperloop trains at the speed of 1,000 to 4,000kmph," he said.
He added that the high-speed trains were one of the four latest inventions of China.

Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 30 Sep 2017 16:17

Actually what China is doing after the defeat at doklam is the strategy of DUPLICITY. They are going to increase trade with India and also investments in strategic sectors of India, such as infrastructure companies in India like buying out L&T etc.

Below is the quote from "Panchatantra".

China considers India a wicked and powerful country, destruction of India is it's primary objective.

6.Dvaidha or DvaidheeBhaava- Duplicity/double dealing/keeping apparently friendly relations with the enemy


STHIRAJEEVEE SUGGESTS ‘DVAIDHEE-BHAAVA’ (DUPLICITY)}

SthiraJeevee said -
“Son! All these ministers have given their advice based on the administrative sciences only. They are useful sometime or other, no doubt! But now is the time to take recourse to ‘Duplicity’ (double-dealing).
It is said -
अविश्वासं सदा तिष्टेत्सन्धिना विग्रहेण च
द्वैधीभावं समाश्रित्य पापे शत्रौ बलीयसि [60]

If the enemy is wicked and powerful,
one should completely distrust him at all times;
take recourse to the policy of duplicity;
make a pretence of friendship and plan his destruction secretly.

Not trusting anyone yourself, but making the enemy trust you by pleasing him in many ways, you can destroy him easily.
It is said -
उच्छेद्यमपि विद्वांसो वर्धयन्त्यरिमेकदा
गुडेन वर्धितः श्लेष्मा सुखं वृद्ध्या निपात्यते [61]

Though the need is there to destroy,
the wise man should build up the enmity at first.
The phlegm which increases by the molasses can be easily destroyed
once it has reached a particular level.

स्त्रीणां शत्रोः कुमित्रस्य पण्यस्त्रीणां विशेषतः
यो भवेदेकभावेन न स जीवति मानवः [62]

A man who trusts women, enemies, a wicked friend,
and especially the prostitutes, does not live for long.

कृत्यं देवद्विजातीनामात्मनश्च गुरोस्तथा
एकभावेन कर्तव्यं शेषं भावद्वयाश्रितैः [63]

One should perform whole heartedly (honestly),
only the actions related to gods, Brahmins, Self and the Guru.
Rest of the actions can be performed with duplicity.

एको भावः सदा शस्तो यतीनां भावितात्मनां
श्रीलुब्धानां न लोकानां विशेषेण महीभृतां [64]

Recluses and realized persons have to remain always honest.
Those greedy after wealth especially kings need not be like that.

Taking recourse to the policy of duplicity, you can live at your own residence. Moreover, by taking advantage of the greed of the enemy, you can also drive him away. Another thing is that you can find out his weak points and destroy him also.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby anupmisra » 30 Sep 2017 16:38

One plus one make president eleven. (think about it...with the great CPC jirga around the corner).

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby habal » 30 Sep 2017 16:46

You have to understand China's defeat was mentioned in Srimad Bhagvatam, Jin, (earlier hu jintao, now Xie Jin Ping) leader of 'buddhist country' invading India and then defeated by kalki. In old days the term 'buddhist' also used to mean non-religious, ruled by people (instead of Gods). What is surprising to me is the single-minded devotion and actions by Godless chinese to lead towards their destiny.

Kalki's war with China

The great conqueror, Kalki then paid homage to his father and started for conquering Kikatpur with his army. The Buddhists live in that city. The residents of that city do not worship God or their forefathers. They do not fear after-life. Other than the body, they do not believe in any soul. They do not have any pride in their lineage or in their race; money, marriage etc. are insignificant to them. People of that place eat and drink a variety of things. When Jin (the leader) heard that Kalki has come to fight them, he gathered a huge army and went out of the city to fight Him.

~ Kalki Purana, II[6], Verses 40 to 44

Although the city of Kikatpur is unidentified, yet it is specified that "Buddhists" live there. But the descriptions of the belief of those people are anything but Buddhist and are more in consonance with the ideology of the Communists, i.e. people who do not worship God, do not believe in after-life, soul, race and the significance of wealth and give the collective more importance than the individual. The choice of foods of the Chinese (or Koreans) are also considered exotic in other parts of the world. Interestingly, the name of the leader is also mentioned as "Jin". As we all know, Jin, Xin or . are very common names among the Chinese. On 15th March 2003 the Chinese Communist Party elected Hu Jintao as the new President of China. By religion, China (or Korea) is predominantly Buddhist, although no religion is allowed to be openly practiced under the Communist rule. Thus the description of the belief of the people and their religion are not contradictory but very appropriate.

He (Jin) took up various types of arms and started war with Kalki. Even the Gods were surprised by the techniques of war adopted by Jin. Jin injured Kalki's horse with a javelin and made him disoriented and unconscious and attempted to take him away, but could not lift him...On seeing that, King Vishakhjupa got angry and encountered Jin and picked up unconscious Kalki in his own chariot. Kalki regained his consciousness in a while and encouraged his soldiers; following that, he rushed towards Jin after getting down from the chariot of Vishakhjupa.

~ Kalki Purana, II[7], Verses 5, 6, 8, 9

It seems that Jin was not a mean enemy and Kalki did not have a smooth ride either and had his moments of ups and downs. Of course this is what is expected if a western force confronts the mighty Chinese army, the biggest in the world in terms of numbers.

Soon, Garga (associate of Kalki) and his army killed 6000 Buddhist soldiers. Bharga and his soldiers killed and injured 11 million enemy soldiers and his mighty allies killed 2500 of them. Kobi along with his sons killed 2 million enemy soldiers, Pragya killed 1 million and Sumantu killed 5 million soldiers.

~ Kalki Purana, II[7], Verses 5, 6, 8, 9

It seems that Kalki and his allies kill or injure an army which is almost 20 million strong. An army of this huge proportions can only be assembled by a country like China and its allies. Thus, the attack on the city of Kikatpur does not merely represent an attack on a city but on a country, probably in alliance with others.

Soon Kalki smiled and said unto Jin - O Sinner ! Don't flee but come and face me...Soon your body will be pierced with my arrows. Soon you shall depart from this world. Then, no one will go along with you. So, you and your allies surrender before me. On hearing the words of Kalki, mighty Jin said "The fate can never be seen. I am a materialist, Buddhist. Nothing but the perceptible are accepted by us. The unseen and the imperceptible are banished by us. Hence your effort is fruitless. Even if you are Godly, I am before you; see if you manage to kill me. In that event, will the Buddhists forgive you?

~ Kalki Purana, II[7], Verses 15 to 18



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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Gerard » 30 Sep 2017 16:50

China strategized to get that intellectual property. Where possible, they bought it, where not possible they stole it. The methods are tactical with the strategic aim of attaining the inventions that made USA a superpower. But they are not sharing their inventions, how clever.


Piracy and Fraud Propelled the U.S. Industrial Revolution

US did the same. UK stole Italian spinning tech early on.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Sep 2017 18:01

Peregrine ji, I think China has found its match in this Indian government. The Chinese have a way with whatever they say quoting from their millennia old Confucian pearls of wisdom etc. They spout inane things like 'Panchsheel' etc. For his part, Modi is returning the compliments. If Chinese take it then well and good, we can develop further along similar lines. At least, it will challenge the Chinese to come up with something better at the next meeting! If not, it is all right too till next time. There is no substance in these things, IMHO.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 30 Sep 2017 19:33

TKiran wrote:Actually what China is doing after the defeat at doklam is the strategy of DUPLICITY. They are going to increase trade with India and also investments in strategic sectors of India, such as infrastructure companies in India like buying out L&T etc.

Below is the quote from "Panchatantra".
TKiran Ji :

Many thanks your detailed reply. I do hope Modi Ji and the others in the present Government are also congisant of the Chinese Intentions.

Meanwhile I believe the Chinese do not allow "Foreign Equity-Investment-Control" in their Strategic Sectors, and if so, then the Government of India should also take similar counter measures to protect India from the Chinese "Investment" onslaught.

Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 30 Sep 2017 19:37

SSridhar wrote:Peregrine ji, I think China has found its match in this Indian government. The Chinese have a way with whatever they say quoting from their millennia old Confucian pearls of wisdom etc. They spout inane things like 'Panchsheel' etc. For his part, Modi is returning the compliments. If Chinese take it then well and good, we can develop further along similar lines. At least, it will challenge the Chinese to come up with something better at the next meeting! If not, it is all right too till next time. There is no substance in these things, IMHO.
SSridhar Ji :

Many thanks indeed. I wish the Best of Luck to Modi Ji and his team and hope for the best.
Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby VishalJ » 30 Sep 2017 22:36

Chinese Automaker SAIC will be launching chinese automobiles in India with a MG badge.

https://www.rushlane.com/new-land-rover ... 08097.html

Checkout the british men from this "UK based automaker"

Image

Image

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 30 Sep 2017 23:44

Prof. Xu Fancheng was a remarkably gifted scholar. The Mother of Sri Aurobindo ashram in Pondicherry had comments about his high intelligence. He had a very good understanding of vedanta and Indian philosophical testa and had also translated most of Sri Aurobindo's voluminous writings including poetry to Mandarin. The quality of his translations were highly appreciated.

He genuinely believed that the spiritual path of integral yoga can result in true liberation of China. He left Sri Aurobindo ashram only few years after the Mother attained Maha samadhi. He believed that Bharat is the Jagat Guru.

If the current Chinese envoy is a true disciple of Prof. Xu Fancheng, he can play a constructive role, for he would have understood the nightly contribution of Indian cibilization esp in the spiritual realm.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Oct 2017 07:48

After Doklam stand-off, China seeks a friend in India - ToI
After the Doklam stand-off ended and PM Narendra Modi and China President Xi Jinping held a meeting, toasted as a success by both sides, there seems to be a conscious attempt by Beijing to build a favourable public opinion in India, suggesting the two nations can start a new chapter.{humbug}

After weeks of hostile rhetoric from Beijing, often articulated by quasi-official mouthpieces like 'Global Times', finally ended with a truce in Doklam, there have been full-page advertisements in Indian newspapers carrying the ambassador's message that Xi and Modi hit it off and ties could now soar. The military stand-off at Doklam ended with a vindication of India's position that China was only trying to unilaterally change the status quo near the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction, though Beijing claimed the Indian side had moved out. But China's tenor seems to indicate a keenness to move on, with Chinese ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui saying it is time for India and China to turn the old page and start a new chapter. {Haven't we heard this before so many times? Words are easy to make but it would be Chinese actions alone that would determine the course of events. India should not be taken in by the usual Chinese tactic of pious platitudes only for its advantage of more trade with India. That should no longer sell.}

Luo emphasised the countries had made a lot of progress at bilateral level, iterating the good vibes of the Modi-Xi meeting as he had done in an edit piece in 'The Hindu'. The emphasis seems to be on furthering economic ties and consciously burying the acrimony ofmilitaristic statements.

While Indian officials don't want to gloat about how China gave up its attempt to build a road through territory that is disputed between it and Bhutan, there is an understanding here that China's efforts to make amends follow a realisation that Beijing could have avoided the confrontation, more so because it wasn't really a high-stakes test for China. Though the test of the pudding remains with issues like India's membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, blocked by China, as also Beijing's hold on Pakistani terror mastermind Masood Azhar being sanctioned by the UN, the effort to tone down a prolonged period of suspicion and edginess marks progress in ties.

Speaking on the occasion of the 68th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, Luo said Xi and Modi, who met at the BRICS Summit this month, sent a clear message of "reconciliation" and "cooperation". "We should dance together.We should make one plus one eleven. China is the largest trading partner of India.We have made a lot of progress at the bilateral level, as well as in international and regional affairs," Luo said.

The diplomat also recalled one of his teachers, Prof Xu Fancheng, who lived at Aurobindo Ashram in Puducherry from 1945 to 1978. Xu is known for translating Upanishads, Bhagawad Gita and Shakuntala from Sanskrit to Chinese. His reference to ancient cultural exchanges, that include the transmission of Buddhist sutras to China, also stood out.

Luo's comments follow his newspaper article, in which he said both countries should consider actively exploring the strategic synergy between China's Belt and Road Initiative and India's 'Act East Policy'.

He had said both sides should appropriately manage differences, get under control the problems left over by history such as issues related to the boundary and the Dalai Lama, while finding solutions to new problems.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Oct 2017 10:03

Hong Kong’s gulf with mainland widens - AP, The Hindu
A series of clashes in September over banners calling for Hong Kong’s independence in universities has not only rekindled a debate over the region’s relative rights to free speech and protest freedoms unseen on the mainland, they have also revealed deeper tensions between students from the city and those from the mainland.

The issues are exacerbated by anxieties among Hong Kong’s youth over a perceived loss of job prospects to their mainland peers and the chilling effect the ruling Community Party has on campus discourse.

Student spat

The student spat is one part of broader tensions surrounding Beijing’s relationship with Hong Kong as the city undergoes an increasingly tense 50-year transition to Chinese rule. Beijing created a special status known as “one country, two systems” for Hong Kong following its 1997 handover from Britain to mainland China, giving it wide autonomy and civil liberties.

In the years since then, increasing numbers of mainland students have come to the city to study, laying the groundwork for tensions.

In the last academic year, mainland students made up 76% of international students in public university programmes, according to the government,

The number of Chinese postgraduate students has doubled in the last decade, making them a much more visible presence on campuses.

“Hong Kong students think that mainland students are taking their learning opportunities and degrees from them,” said Chris Chan, an economics student at Hong Kong Baptist University.

Business connections

Many locals like Mr. Chan fear that large companies and banks are more likely to hire mainland Chinese graduates, since Hong Kongers often don’t have as many connections to the mainland-dominated business community.

The failures of the 2014 Occupy Central protests, which demanded Hong Kong’s right to elect its own leader, resulted in further disillusionment among young people.

These divisions are exacerbated by language, with Mandarin dominating in mainland China and Cantonese in Hong Kong. For some Hong Kong youth, simply hearing someone speak Mandarin can be infuriating.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 01 Oct 2017 17:41

The US in retreat in the ICS? Is it effectively "match over" to China?
China is v.cleverly using the NoKo crisis to divert attention from what it is doing in the Indo-China Sea.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how ... 522?page=2
How America Is Losing the Battle for the South China Sea
The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Kidd (DDG 100), USS Pinckney (DDG 93), and USS Dewey (DDG 105) steam the South China sea behind the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74)
Washington should step up its efforts to make Beijing pay a more serious price for such a flagrant disrespect for international law.
Bill Bray
September 28, 2017

What a difference a year makes. In late summer 2016, there was some hope the July 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling in favor of the Philippine interpretation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea regarding the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal would curtail Beijing’s subsequent activity in the South China Sea (despite China’s refusal to even participate in the arbitration case or recognize the court’s jurisdiction, let alone accept the ruling). In fact, some optimists, like Lynn Kuok from the National University of Singapore, have pointed to small developments—such as China this year permitting Filipino and Vietnamese fishing around Scarborough Shoal for the first time since 2012—as encouraging signs that the Hague’s ruling is having a positive effect. But most observers see it much differently, and developments this past summer seem to support a much more pessimistic forecast.

With the U.S. government and the world understandably focused on North Korea and escalating tensions in northeast Asia, China this summer has made substantial progress in further establishing de facto control over most of the South China Sea. Indeed, aside from Secretary Defense Mattis’ strongly-worded speech in June at the annual Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore, and an uptick in U.S. Navy freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea, the administration seems uninterested in reinforcing—let alone more forcefully emphasizing—international law and the longstanding U.S. position that all claimants must take concrete steps in accordance with said law to resolve the disputes peacefully. As Bonnie Glaser from the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted this past July at CSIS’s seventh annual South China Sea conference, the United States seemed surprised and ill-prepared for the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 ruling, and has yet to devise a comprehensive South China Sea policy or strategy. Freedom-of-navigation operations is simply a policy tool, not a policy in itself.

This isn’t lost on Beijing or the ten Association for Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) states. As the diplomatic winds blow harder in China’s favor, Beijing’s next move could very well be a security power play, like declaring maritime base points and strait baselines from the islands and shoals it has occupied and militarized. Or perhaps it could establish an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the same area. Furthermore, U.S.-China relations are worsening over North Korea and trade, and, following the Nineteenth Party Congress in late October, Chinese president Xi Jinping may see, from a position of greater domestic strength, both an opportunity and a need to make that very type of play.

What a War Between America and China Would Look Like.
China scored two important victories this summer in the South China Sea confrontation, and this barely got any notice in mainstream Western media. First, after a hotly divided politburo debate in Hanoi in July, Vietnam yielded to a Chinese threat of force and suspended drilling in block 136/3, which is licensed to Vietnam’s state oil company, the Spanish firm Repsol S.A., and the Mubadala Development Company in the United Arab Emirates. China had first tried to pressure the Spanish government, as Repsol S.A. provided the drilling vessel and started the onsite project in June. When that didn’t work, Chinese Gen. Fan Changlong, deputy chair of China’s Central Military Commission, explicitly threatened force if Vietnam did not cease the project (block 136/3 is inside China’s South China Sea maritime rights claim, or the Nine-Dash Line) while on an annual border-exchange visit to Vietnam. Let’s be clear on just what exactly happened: Vietnam began a legal resource extraction operation inside its exclusive economic zone, and China, opposing it on dubious historical and legal grounds (grounds that the Hague’s PCA firmly rejected), threatened war if they didn’t cease the project. Beijing didn’t threaten to take Vietnam to court in the Hague, or raise the matter before the United Nations in another forum, or try to apply greater diplomatic and economic pressure. The Chinese government instead threatened military action. And Vietnam took the threat seriously and complied. And the United States and the rest of the world essentially registered no serious rebuke.

Second, China hit the trifecta at the ASEAN foreign ministerial in Manila on August 8. As expected, all ten ASEAN nations and China signed a framework for an eventual South China Sea code of conduct. For those not paying attention at home, this might sound like meaningful diplomatic progress. It was not. Instead, it was a completely vacuous exercise because it no more than restated principles all had agreed to fifteen years earlier, and China still refuses to enter into a binding code of conduct. Just to get to a framework for a nonbinding code took well over a year, so long one has to wonder whether the whole effort amounted to little more than a charade.

Vietnam at least lobbied hard for more forceful language in the post-ministerial joint statement, and after much wrangling it was agreed that language expressing concern about “reclamation” and “militarization” in the South China Sea be added. Then, in a breathtaking breach of protocol, the Philippines’ foreign secretary, Alan Peter Cayetano, told the press he agreed with China’s criticism of the joint statement, which included a bold-faced canard that China hasn’t engaged in reclamation since 2015. Cayetano trashed the ASEAN joint statement as if ASEAN were some nascent assembly of nations unnecessarily picking a fight with China, and not the fifty-year-old prestigious, diplomatic and economic grouping currently chaired by the Philippines. As one of China’s long-standing strategic goals is to divide ASEAN and deal with each SCS claimant bilaterally, this certainly saw champagne corks popping in the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Not quite the coup de grace, perhaps, but a powerful blow to ASEAN unity.

Finally, during and after the ASEAN ministerial in Manila, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson seemed to be focused on everything but the South China Sea, in marked contrast to not only Mattis’ June speech but also to Tillerson’s own statement on the South China Sea at the ASEAN summit in May. Tillerson instead praised China’s foreign minister after China joined in a unanimous UN Security Council vote to enact more sanctions on North Korea following that regime’s late July ballistic-missile test. This is understandable, of course, but even implicitly signaling to Beijing that the U.S. position on the South China Sea, Taiwan or any other issue is a potential bargaining chip for China’s cooperation on North Korea is a major win for China. China likely believes denuclearizing North Korea through economic and diplomatic pressure without causing state collapse is all but impossible, but if it can advance its interests elsewhere by giving the United States the impression that it is ready to finally take North Korea to task, all the better. The United States would be wise to steer clear of this quid pro quo trap. Instead, it should insist China meet unconditionally its international security responsibilities as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

China’s Next South China Sea Act

Following China’s recent South China Sea victories, the table is now set for an even bolder move to further cement Beijing’s de facto control of its expansive Nine-Dash Line claim. This could come in many forms, such as declaring an ADIZ or maritime base points from various occupied islands and shoals, as mentioned above, or by simply beginning routine military operations from its occupied reefs. The U.S. Navy has increased its South China Sea patrols (on pace for nine hundred days in 2017, up from seven hundred in 2016), and its freedom-of-navigation operations near Chinese-claimed and occupied territory. And, Vietnam sent its defense minister to Washington in August and subsequently agreed to host a U.S. aircraft carrier on a port visit. But neither will deter China from pressing forward more aggressively in the South China Sea this winter and into 2018.

China is getting much more comfortable challenging the U.S. Navy. Each year the Chinese Navy grows in size, capability, and proficiency. U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations are simply going to become a lot more risky in the future, to the point where the potential cost to continue them may outweigh the benefit. As for Vietnam, China knows Hanoi remains ambivalent about getting too close to the United States and will prefer to hedge its relationship, considering its proximity to China and its close defense relationship with Russia. Unlike with the Philippines, the United States has no formal security relationship with Vietnam. Pulling the Philippines even partly out of the U.S. orbit is far more valuable to China than a few more U.S. Navy port visits is to Vietnam.

Threatening war with China over the South China Sea is not credible. But that does not mean the United States should not step up its efforts to make China pay a more serious price for such a flagrant disrespect for international law. As Ely Ratner so thoughtfully pointed out recently in Foreign Affairs, the United States has yet to employ many tools in this regard, and its lack of a comprehensive policy underscores how confused and inconsistent its approach has been over the past decade or so. In many ways, the South China Sea is no less a supreme test of U.S. leadership than the Korea crisis. Trade disputes come and go, given the ephemeral and complex nature of global economics. Giving up on the South China Sea will cast a much longer shadow on the viability and credibility of international law.

Bill Bray is a managing director working with the firm’s Geopolitical Risk Advisory group in Washington, DC. He is a recently retired Naval Intelligence officer.


PS:Fundamentally,the strongest nation in the ICS region which can counter China is Vietnam,but it is far weaker militarily and the Chinese have an overwhelming capability against it both in quantity and quality.To prevent Vietnam from succumbing to China totally,the Viets bought 6 Ru Kilo subs v.recently.India providing it with BMos missiles would be another major boost.The US can do a lot for it by providing it with even legacy ,late model P-3 Orion ASW/LRMP aircraft,and both Russia and India can provide it with SAMs,BM defences,etc. But critical to the region's security is the realtionship between the US and the Philippines.The US must support whatever govt. is in power in Manila."Duterte may be a Ba*tard,but he's our ba*tard",should be the motto,harkening back to the days of Henry K and Richard Nixon. This is because it isn't some some small Latino banana republic,but the future of Asia and the world at stake.The Chinese juggernaut must be stopped in the Indo-China Sea at whatever the cost.Allowing it to gain control and break out of the second island chain would be fatal.In the IOR it has already established bases /port facilities at Gwadar in Pak,Djibouti in the Red Sea,helping Pak develop Ormara into a base of Paki subs equipped with N-weapons,has facilities in BDesh,Burma and its subs have been making regular port calls in Malaysia too.

If Pak/IOR base facilities are to China its forward defence/offence line in the maritime sphere,then India MUST develop Vietnam as its forward defence/offence line in the ICS. India will be forced to divert its attention in the IOR "tous azimuth" ,surrounded by Chinese naval forces operating from various points of the compass. The most survivable way in which we can strike a China inits own backyard is by sending in large numbers of subs into the ICS ,operating on a permanent basis ,with base/naval facilities in Vietnam and elsewhere,even poss, the Philippines if the US doesn't return there in some measure.These subs must also be supported by LRMP aircraft like P-8I Orions and LR strat. bombers like Backfires/Blackjacks,etc.,armed with LRCMs and supersonic/hypersonic ASMs like BMos.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Oct 2017 20:02

Thinking the unthinkable in China: Abandoning North Korea - AFP, Economic Times
North Korea's nuclear antics have rattled its alliance with China to the point that Beijing is allowing the previously unthinkable to be discussed: Is it time to prepare for the renegade regime's collapse?

While China's official goal is to bring Washington and Pyongyang to the negotiating table, it is also permitting once taboo debate on contingencies in case war breaks out in the isolated nation across its northeast border.

Observers say the public debate might be a tactic to try and coerce Pyongyang into cooling its weapons programme, with its nuclear and missile tests visibly angering Beijing, which has backed tough new United Nations sanctions on the country.

But it may also indicate growing calls to overhaul its relationship with the North, a longterm ally that it defended during the 1950-53 Korean War and has a mutual defence pact with.


Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, raised eyebrows earlier in September when he published an article entitled: "Time to prepare for the worst in North Korea".

The paper was published in English in East Asia Forum, a website of the Australian National University, but it is unlikely that he could have released it without the approval of Chinese authorities.

Jia urged Beijing to start discussing contingency plans with the United States and South Korea
-- talks that the two nations have sought in the past but China has resisted for fear of upsetting Pyongyang.

"When war becomes a real possibility, China must be prepared. And, with this in mind, China must be more willing to consider talks with concerned countries on contingency plans," Jia wrote.

Beijing, he said, could discuss who would control North Korea's nuclear arsenal -- either the United States or China.

To prevent a massive flow of refugees across the border, China could send its army to North Korea to create a "safety zone", Jia said.

Another touchy issue would be who would "restore domestic order in North Korea in the event of a crisis". China, he said, would object to letting US soldiers cross the 38th parallel into North Korea.

An August editorial in state-run nationalist tabloid Global Times said China should remain neutral if North Korea launches missiles against the US and Washington retaliated, and only intervene if the US and South Korea tried to overthrow the Pyongyang regime.

Discussions about the end of the North's regime could be aimed at scaring Kim Jong-Un and pleasing Trump before the US leader's trip to Beijing in November, a Western diplomat said.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met President Xi Jinping and top Chinese diplomats in Beijing on Saturday to discuss the North Korean nuclear crisis.

"If the international community can unite and pretend there's going to be a real war, there is a chance that North Korea will freeze its nuclear tests," Wang Peng, research fellow at Fudan University in Shanghai, told AFP.

But there are also signs of a genuine shift in perceptions over how China should handle North Korea.


David Kelly, director of research at Beijing-based consultancy China Policy, said the thinking among Chinese academics was: "We could do better without them, a unified Korea would be incredibly good for China, the northeast would boom".

China has long supported North Korea because it serves as a buffer from US troops stationed in South Korea, but Barthelemy Courmont, a China specialist at the Institute of Strategic and International Relations in Paris, said Pyongyang's downfall could be good for Beijing, especially economically.

"China now believes that a collapse of North Korea would not necessarily be to its disadvantage,"
Courmont said.

"If North Korea were to fall in a peaceful way, China would be best positioned for its reconstruction. China is the only country capable of overseeing the reconstruction of North Korea," he said.

Such talk was not always permitted.

Deng Yuwen was suspended from his job as editor of the journal of the Communist Party's Central Party School in 2013 after writing an article saying China should abandon North Korea.

But this year he wrote unimpeded about post-conflict planning.

"If the two Koreas reunified, there would no longer be the needs for the presence of US troops in South Korea and the South Korean people would not let them stay," Deng said in April in an article published by the Charhar Institute think tank.

Moreover, he said, South Korea would no longer need to host the US THAAD missile defence system.

Its deployment has infuriated Beijing because it fears that its powerful radars could peer deep into China and destabilise the region.

But dropping Pyongyang is not that simple, Kelly said.

"The problem is: how do you cut the cord, because nobody knows what North Korea will do," he said.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 01 Oct 2017 20:06

A NoKo collapse would be with a massive radioactive "Big Bang"! The Kim-chi equiv. of "Gotterdamerung". The Dear Lord bless and protect NoKo's neighbours like SoKo,Japan and also...China! Betraying Dear Leader Kim would definitely see NoKo launch a massive first strike against SoKo,and a second strike capability against Beijing-a parting shot "thank you" for betrayal.A rat when pushed to the wall bites back.the current Chin rage against Kim -III is becos he refuses to toe megalomaniac XI-Gins' commands. KIm-III is showing that he is not the Korean version of a Chinese puppet but a leader in his own right,and very rightly so.He has brilliantly with concerted effort in record time developed a world-class N-arsenal and on the cusp of ICBM capability.

The NoKo mantra of "juche",akin to our "Swadeshi" mantra of the freedom era,one has to admit been better followed in NoKo with all the sanctions regime against it ,than we have followed in recent times. WE are in the throes of an import binge,esp. for white goods,even handicrafts,sending most of our SMEs into oblivion,with the Chins laughing all the way to the bank,Dear Young-Un Kim,has the hallmark of a man with a bunker mentality.If NoKo does indeed go down the tube,it will not be with a whimper but a might bang that will engulf Beijing too.
Last edited by Philip on 01 Oct 2017 20:17, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Oct 2017 20:10

Doklam chill remains: India-China ceremonial border meet not held - Rajat Pandit, ToI
The Indian and Chinese armies may have disengaged from their eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation on the Bhutanese territory of Doklam after hectic diplomatic parleys but the distinct chill between the rival troops remains on the ground over a month later.

The two armies did not hold their traditional border personnel meeting (BPM) at the five designated places along the 4,057-km long Line of Actual Control to mark China's 68th national day on Sunday, as is the norm every year.

"The People's Liberation Army did not send us an invite for the ceremonial meeting at the five BPM points (Daulat Beg Oldi and Chushul in Ladakh, Bum La and Kibithu in Arunachal, and Nathu La in Sikkim) on October 1," said a source.

There has also been "no forward movement" on the 7th edition of the annual "Hand-in-Hand" exercise between the Indian Army and PLA, which was to be held in China this month. "The exercise is unlikely this year," he added.

Sources say the two armies continue to maintain their stepped-up force levels near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction even weeks after the troops disengaged from the stand-off site at Doklam, concluding 73 days of tense confrontation.


The face-off had seen both the sides move forward additional infantry battalions as well as armoured (tanks), artillery, missile and air defence units in a show of strength to back their small number of troops on the actual stand-off site, as reported by TOI earlier.

"The PLA did halt construction of its motorable road through the stand-off site towards the Jampheri Ridge (physically blocked by Indian soldiers after coming down from their adjacent Doka La post on June 16) but is maintaining its force-levels in the area," said another source.

The assessment is that the ground situation will remain the same till the crucial 19th party congress of the Chinese Communist Party from October 18, with President Xi Jinping all set to win a second five-year term to further consolidate his power.

"Let's see how the PLA behaves after the party congress gets over," said the source.

After the Doklam crisis erupted in mid-June, Indian troops had also not crossed over to the Chinese side for the PLA's 90th anniversary celebrations on August 1.

There are seven to eight occasions in a year that the two armies hold the ceremonial meetings at the different BPM points, which include speeches, cultural performances, exchange of gifts and tea, as a confidence-building measure.

China has also till now consistently ignored reminders from India about the annual "Hand-in-Hand" exercise, another major military CBM, which was held for the first at Kunming (China) in 2007. But after the second edition at Belgaum in 2008, the exercise was put on hold due to diplomatic spats over stapled visa and other issues in 2009-2010. The exercise was finally resumed in 2013, with the third edition being held at Miaoergang in China.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby devesh » 02 Oct 2017 10:44

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/2212
(apologies if already posted previously)!

Who in China Instigated Doklam Stand – off? And Why?

Paper No. 6306 Dated 21-Sept-2017

By Bhaskar Roy

After over two month long military stand-off, the soldiers of India and China on the Doklam Plateau (claimed by Bhutan and also by China), disengaged almost simultaneously, both capitals would have heaved a huge sigh of relief.

During the face-off, the Chinese foreign ministry, the defence ministry, and Chinese official media, along with experts shouted, and even held out threats of war if Indian troops did not withdraw. Publicly, the Chinese rebuffed India’s offer of talks, holding on to their demand of withdrawal first by India. Quiet diplomacy, however, continues below the public gaze. These discussions did not take place always in New Delhi and Beijing, but also in third country meetings in places like Hong Kong and elsewhere.

The Chinese are known for their hard and protracted negotiating tactics. This time, however, time was of essence as well as substance, at least for the Chinese. India took a mature, principled position, refusing to be drawn into rhetoric and sharp exchanges, taking the wind out of the Chinese propaganda sail.

The main Indian interlocutors interfacing with their Chinese counterparts are hard boiled professionals who did not have a touch-me-not approach to Beijing. For years, if not decades, the Indian government’s approach was not to “provoke” China, brushing all Chinese misdemeanours under the carpet. It was a major mistake in 2003 to allow China to establish a Consulate General in Kolkata, hoping China would allow India to establish a Consulate General in Lhasa. Somebody read history backwards!

China needed a face saver, and India wisely gave it to them. Beijing’s domestic propaganda machinery propagated Indian troops withdrew first(August 28). New Delhi was gracious. “Face” is a very critical political issue in China, and no top leader can afford to lose face.

President Xi Jinping is also the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). He has also had himself declared as the “Core” of the leadership, a title given to Mao Zedong posthumously. Deng Xiaoping, father of China’s modernization had it thrust upon himself because of the power struggle between the left conservatives and the more economic liberals led by Deng. Jiang Zemin, Deng’s hand-picked top leader, also had “core” title, but wore it lightly.

Xi had several challenges coming up. The BRICS summit was coming up on September 4-5, in Xiamen China. If Indian Prime Minister did not attend because of Doklam, the summit would collapse. Xi would face a political embarrassment both internally and externally. The 19th Congress of the CPC Central Committee is scheduled for October 19, where he would be questioned where he was taking China. There are several other challenges like the North Korean nuclear issue, Taiwan, South China Sea and Hong Kong among other issues.

Under such circumstances would Xi agree on a small misadventure like in Doklam? Impossible. He is too astute a leader, although no soft-liner, to risk such an incident. Xi Jinping is caught in a power struggle with the Jiang Zemin faction, and he may be slowly winning.

Jiang Zemin was instrumental in making Xi Jinping the Party chief, President and Chairman of the CMC – the Party’s top post. At the same time Jiang surrounded Xi with his own people. Of the seven Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) members, at least three – Zhang Dejiang, Lin Yangsheng and Zhang Gaoli are Jiang’s people. Xi as the number one, has the chief of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), Wang Qishang firmly on his side. Yu Zhang Sheng’s leaning is not very clear. Premier Li Keqiang is neither on Jiang’s side nor on Xi’s. A leader of the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction, he has been cut by both. Four members are set to retire at the 19th Party Congress starting October 18, because of age. Only Xi and Li will remain.

Wang Qishan has brought down more than 300 high to middle level supporters of Jiang. Xi reorganized the PLA to scatter Jiang supporters and brought down at least two of Jiang’s hand-picked top level officers, Xu Caihou and Guo Boxing, both Vice Chairmen of the CMC. But their acolytes are still serving,

The spider web has been widely damaged, but the spider (Jiang Zemin) is still alive. The battle is won, but the war is still not over. Internal challenges to Xi Jinping have been brought down from critical to red.

The external challenges are no less. The North Korean nuclear issue is threatening to boil over. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conducted the country’s sixth and most powerful nuclear test yet, recently. Pyongyang claimed it was a thermonuclear (hydrogen) bomb. Their intermediate range and long range missiles are being test launched regularly. With US President Donald Trump threatening to destroy the Kim regime, and Kim responding in equal measure, China is almost at a tipping point. If there is a nuclear fallout China will not remain unaffected.

North Korea was, and continues to be, politically and geopolitically important to China, especially against the US-Japan alliance. Pyongyang’s programme grew under China’s nose, literally. If Beijing thought a nuclear North Korea would be a nuclear Pakistan in North East Asia, the plan has back fired badly. Japan may go nuclear, and may be followed by South Korea, in some way or the other. Beijing stands to be the biggest loser.

Relations between China and Japan are acrimonious. With the return of the DPP to power in Taiwan, relations across the Taiwan Strait have deteriorated. It is interesting and worth noting, the Chinese official daily, the Global Times, said that Wang Zaixi, the former Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of Mainland China (the office that conducts relations with Taiwan), said in an interview that the possibility of a peaceful reunification was “slowly disappearing”, hinting that the military option was becoming relevant (Chinascope, September 6, 2017).

Did Wang Zaixi try to plant another irritant to Xi Jinping’s strategy ahead of the 19th Party Congress on behalf of the “Spider Web”? It has been done before with Taiwan, and Hong Kong has been injected with the seeds of pro-democracy to pro-independent political values.

If shots were fired in Doklam, the situation could have gone out of control along the India-China border. The Indian government was in no mood to bend, but neither was it willing to escalate the situation.

A short article by Major General Qiao Liang in the Global Times (September 12, 2017) is revealing. Titled “War must always be the last resort in disputes”, Qiao argues that even if a cause is right, “It is also not to do the right thing at any time.

He goes on to underline “Only doing the right thing at the right time is correct”. Qiao makes it very clear that China could not afford to enter into a military conflict with India at this point of time. That would only harm China.

Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” (rejuvenation of China), making China a middle income country and his “two centuries” programme were all at stake. India was no longer a struggling poor country, but a power whose voice was being heard the world over. They are concerned about an unwritten India-US-Japan strategic conjunction, something which Beijing has worried about for years. This triangular relationship has been developing at a rather fair pace to China’s discomfort.

To note, Qiao has put the Doklam issue to the future and not off the table, for the “right time”.

Two things are pertinent to note. First, Qiao Liang is a serving Major General and serving officers are not allowed to write in the media unless cleared at a very high level. Next, the Global Times was the most aggressive and threatening during the Doklam stand-off. The editor of the newspaper would have been ordered to carry the Qiao article, changing the tone of the newspaper.

Qiao Liang generally maintains a low profile. But he is a brilliant strategic thinker, highly respected both in China and abroad.

In 1999, Qiao as a colonel, co-authored with another colonel Wang Xiangsu, the book “Unrestricted Warfare” which its American publisher subtitled as “China’s master plan to destroy America”.

The core philosophy of the book is that the weak can defeat the strong, and for that everything and every instrument can be used including terrorism. There are no boundaries.

Al Santoli, who wrote the preface of the American print, wrote that in 2002 the Washington Times reported that the US intelligence had confirmed that before the “9/11” terror attacks, China’s military provided military training to the Afghan Taliban and its Al Qaeda supporters. Some question if this was a chapter of “Unrestricted Warfare”.

In an interview with the Oriental Outlook Weekly in 2014 Qiao urged strategic patience. Getting the Diaoyu Island and the South China Sea islands were not China’s core interests now, he argued. In his view what China needed now was another 20 years of economic development (for Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream). Then choose the right time to strike.

The way the Doklam issue was finally resolved by the Chinese points to the view of Qiao Liang. It has soft pedalled Japan a bit, been quiet on Taiwan, and a little nervous with the developments in Hong Kong.

China appears to be exercising strategic wisdom or strategic patience. India must not fall into complacency, Strike they will. The Indian government and strategists must be acutely aware of one more thing- high technology guerrilla warfare, another strategic vision of Major General Qiao Liang.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby arun » 02 Oct 2017 11:32

Peregrine wrote:India, China should start a new chapter: Chinese envoy

NEW DELHI: Chinese envoy to India Luo Zhaohui has said it was time for India and China to turn the old page and start a new chapter, stressing that the countries have made a lot of progress at bilateral level.

He said on Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the BRICS Summit in Xiamen earlier this month, and the two leaders sent a clear message of "reconciliation" and "cooperation".

"We should turn the old page and start a new chapter with the same pace and direction. We should dance together ……………………..






Sushanth Singh writing in the Indian Express also points out that this is the first time since 2005 that there was no border personnel meeting (BPM) held on the India-China border.

The Protocol on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas signed by India and the Peoples Republic of China in 2005 calls for these meeting:

Post-Doklam, no invite from China for its National Day border meet

This is the first time since 2005 that there was no border personnel meeting (BPM) held on the India-China border.

Written by Sushant Singh | New Delhi | Updated: October 2, 2017 7:52 am

Departing from past practice, the Chinese army did not send an invitation to its Indian counterpart for a ceremonial border personnel meeting (BPM) to mark China’s National Day on Sunday. This follows a no-show by the Chinese in response to an Indian invitation to attend a ceremonial BPM on Indian Independence Day on August 15.

This is the first time since 2005 that there was no BPM held on the India-China border. Although tensions between India and China have reduced following the disengagement between the two armies at the face-off site in Dolam plateau on August 28, relations between the two armies have not reverted to normal so far.

“There was no invitation sent to us by the Chinese,” official sources told The Indian Express, about the ceremonial meeting which was to be hosted by the Chinese at five designated places on the border.

These ceremonial meetings include a small cultural show, a sporting contest and a meal. They are attended by officers, soldiers and families from both sides, and are different from flag-meetings, which are convened to discuss border issues.

Both sides had agreed to two ceremonial meetings every year, starting from 2005, consequent to the signing of the Protocol on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas.

As per Article V of the Protocol, “Both sides shall hold two additional border meetings each year at Spanggur Gap in the Western Sector, Nathu La in the Sikkim Sector and Bum La in the Eastern Sector respectively in celebration of the National Day or Army Day of either side.” The other two meeting points – Kibithu-Damai in the eastern sector and Lipulekh Pass/Qiang La in the middle sector – were also mentioned in the 2005 Protocol.

The two sides then mutually decided to host these ceremonial border meetings on August 1 – China’s Army Day — and August 15, as other national or army days fall during the winter months when holding a ceremonial meeting is not possible in snow-bound areas. The year the Chinese are unable to host the ceremonial BPM on August 1, they extend an invitation to the Indian army on October 1, their National Day.

This year, they didn’t extended an invite on either occasions, but also refused to accept the Indian invitation for August 15. As the Indian and Chinese soldiers were in a face-off at Dolam plateau in August, the Chinese action was understandable in the context of tensions in bilateral ties. By not extending an invite for ceremonial meeting on October 1, the Chinese have conveyed an impression that the relations are not fully back to normal yet.

This runs contrary to the statement by Chinese envoy to India, Luo Zhaohui, who on Friday said: “We should turn the old page and start a new chapter with the same pace and direction. We should dance together. We should make one plus one eleven. China is the largest trading partner of India. We have made a lot of progress at the bilateral level, as well as in international and regional affairs”.


From Indian Express here:

Post-Doklam, no invite from China for its National Day border meet

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Oct 2017 13:34

To me, it appears that PRC is working on updating the BDCA (Border Defence Cooperation Agreement) in the light of how India reacted in Doka La. They are holding all engagements, in the meanwhile, in suspension. They will suddenly spring this new Agreement upon us and ask us to sign it immediately as it happened with the BDCA last time.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Oct 2017 14:21

India and China new players in Central Asia’s ‘Great Game’ - Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Economic Times
A great game is unfolding in resources-rich, but landlocked, Central Asia, where China through its one-belt-one-road (OBOR) initiative is attempting to harness maximum mineral and hydrocarbon wealth as well as grow the market for its goods. India, not to be left behind, has also embarked on a Connect Central Asia policy, trying to overcome a disadvantage it has: lack of direct connectivity to the region.

While oil and uranium rich Kazakhstan is an old partner, Uzbekistan, which has historical links with India, is emerging as the next big partner for New Delhi in the region. It has offered to provide special incentives and zones for Indian businesses, expand defence and counter-terror partnership with India and extend an opportunity to expand presence in the region and Afghanistan through mega connectivity initiatives.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has also invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to enhance India's presence in five ex-Soviet Republics and Eurasia through Uzbekistan amid China's growing presence in the region.

While Beijing has made inroads across Central Asia, India views itself as a stabiliser and security provider in the region and, with its growing economic clout, is an attractive economic power for the countries in the region, government officials here said.

India’s interest in securing reliable energy supplies and trade through Central Asia remains substantial. Besides oil and gas, energy-hungry India is eyeing imports of uranium from both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The requirements of energy security also postulate a continuing positive relationship with Moscow, the oldest player in the region.

India plans to create firm ties among the energy-exporting states of Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan besides Turkmenistan. New Delhi is considering exploration and production of hydrocarbons in Kazakhstan and participation of its companies in the oil and gas sector. Kazakhstan has expressed interest in supplying gas to India.

Delhi is also exploring with Uzbekistan the possibility of extending the Friendship Railway Bridge to Herat in Western Afghanistan amid a push to the government’s Afghan strategy, according to the one of the officials. With Uzbekistan being the region’s biggest military power, Tashkent is also keen to expand its defence partnership with India
, officials said. India is also eyeing effective counter-terror partnership through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Counter-terror centre based in Tashkent, after it became a member of the bloc in June.

China has made significant headway in the region, with $10 billion in grants and aid to SCO members in Central Asia and developing regional linkages between Central Asia and its western regions.

Central Asia is central to China’s OBOR policy. India’s lack of direct overland access to the region due to Pakistan’s reluctance in allowing Indian goods to pass through its territory has hurt New Delhi’s trade interests in the region.

However, countries in the Central Asian region, led by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are keen to have India as one of their major partners to unleash their potential, said an official. “India has been slowly coming up with its own Eurasian agenda. It has taken some significant steps with enormous implications for realising a strong potential connectivity link between India and Eurasia. In the recent past, amid China’s push for BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) projects, the MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) held a multi-stakeholder meet to highlight some latest surveys undertaken by Indian institutions such as the Federation of Freight Forwarders’ Associations in India, the Ladakh International Centre and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. The meeting discussed how the implementation of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) has moved to a fast-track stage after India decided to join the international customs convention, TIR, following the Union Cabinet approval,” said P Stoban, India’s former envoy to Kyrgyzstan and an expert on Central Asia.

INSTC is a 7,200-km-long, multi-modal (ship, rail and road) transportation system for connecting the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran and thereafter to Russia and North Europe. Delhi hopes to put INSTC in place by the end of this decade. That will be major connectivity initiative for Central Asian outreach as well.

India’s current trade volume with the Eurasian region is minimal. The Chabahar route (which will see operationalisation of sorts this month following wheat supply to Afghanistan from India via this port) plus INSTC could boost trade worth up to $170 billion from India alone.

“While New Delhi enters the Eurasian integration path, it also needs to factor in the changing political dynamics within Central Asia. Following the recent change of leadership in Tashkent, the nature of the regional outlook is changing in favour of intra-regional cooperation. If this trend gathers force, it would not be always easy for China to overcome the broader set of issues that could come in the way of realising its BRI vision,” Stobdan said. “In any event, to counter such a strategic move, the Indian policy response should cater for the interplay of trade, investment, connectivity and culture.”

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 02 Oct 2017 14:49

SSridhar wrote:To me, it appears that PRC is working on updating the BDCA (Border Defence Cooperation Agreement) in the light of how India reacted in Doka La. They are holding all engagements, in the meanwhile, in suspension. They will suddenly spring this new Agreement upon us and ask us to sign it immediately as it happened with the BDCA last time.
SSridhar Ji & arun Ji :
Nothing precludes the PRC to suddenly spring this new Agreement upon us and ask us to sign it immediately as it happened with the BDCA last time so what precludes the GOI from taking their own "reasonable" time to go through the Agreement provided by the Chinese and put up their own - Indian - "Amendments"?

BTW : Why did GOI agree and sign the BDCA immediately last time?
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Deans » 02 Oct 2017 15:33



We have 3 divisions under 33 Corps which can get to Sikkim/Doklam/Siliguri corridor faster. During the crisis, I had been hoping that those 12000
PLA men or whatever number there were, would try something stupid.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Oct 2017 17:24

Peregrine wrote: . . . so what precludes the GOI from taking their own "reasonable" time to go through the Agreement provided by the Chinese and put up their own - Indian - "Amendments"?

BTW : Why did GOI agree and sign the BDCA immediately last time?

Nothing precludes and I am sure that India wouldn't succumb to such a pressure.

Last time, IIRC, China said that India was the first port-of-call for Li Keqiang, their new PM and would like to see a path-breaking BDCA signed during his trip thus marking the dawn of a new era in relationship. They gave us hardly a fortnight after giving us their version of the BDCA. Of course, even the UPA did not budge. The current foreign secretary was then the Indian Ambassador to Beijing. To be fair to all Indian governments, we have been tough but true to Chinese tactics, they never relent only hoping that sometime, somewhere there would be a minor crack to exploit. They have a single-minded and integrated approach to their affairs.

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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 02 Oct 2017 19:50

Peregrine wrote: . . . so what precludes the GOI from taking their own "reasonable" time to go through the Agreement provided by the Chinese and put up their own - Indian - "Amendments"?

BTW : Why did GOI agree and sign the BDCA immediately last time?
SSridhar wrote:Nothing precludes and I am sure that India wouldn't succumb to such a pressure.

Last time, IIRC, China said that India was the first port-of-call for Li Keqiang, their new PM and would like to see a path-breaking BDCA signed during his trip thus marking the dawn of a new era in relationship. They gave us hardly a fortnight after giving us their version of the BDCA. Of course, even the UPA did not budge. The current foreign secretary was then the Indian Ambassador to Beijing. To be fair to all Indian governments, we have been tough but true to Chinese tactics, they never relent only hoping that sometime, somewhere there would be a minor crack to exploit. They have a single-minded and integrated approach to their affairs.
SSridhar Ji :
Many thanks indeed.

Good to know that PRC will keep trying to "Pull a Fast One" however the GOI is fully capable of "Guarding" India's Interests.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 03 Oct 2017 11:07

The PRC is relentless,like soldier ants oursuing their planned grand strat.,carving up territory where its neighbours are weak and enticing poor states to become vassal states using the classic "loanshark" tactic. That's how Sri Lanka was trapped.IF the anti-China brigade want to seriously deter and counter China then the war must be waged along many paths.

First economic.Vulnerable states should given fin. assistance,even repayment of Chin loans to prevent the Chins from squatting on their territory.This is what India should've done with SL.I said years ago that spending a few billions in SL would be better now to keep the hins out rather than tens of billions later. But as a knowing gent of the ways of the Delhi Durbar told me,"they (babus) will do nothing unless there is a way for them to make money".

Second,diplomatic.A concerted diplomatic offensive to put China in the dock reg. its "take-away" of Mischief Reef,etc. in the Spratlys.Sanctions ,etc. to be imposed upon the Chin regime for not demilitarising the islands and a halt to island expansion wiith mil forces. A joint anti-China mil force to occupy other uninhabited islands in the ICS to prove a point to China. Sending sev. diplomatic teams from the anti-China brigade to Taiwan,an open threat that recognising Taiwan is a clear option if China continues to misbehave.

Thirdly,as mentioned above,occupying the islands by force,regular naval patrols inside intl. waters in which these islands are located disregarding any Chinese hysteria and abuse. Mil. exercises too when necessary in these waters.This will force China to concentrate on its home borders/waters first,slowing down its global maritime "Great Game",where its navy is now the chosen service to achieve Chinese goals of global domination supplanting the US.

These 3 are the general measures which need to be carried out immediately.It requires a close coordination of the anti-China brigade.This is where the difficulty arises,most of all for India. While India shares the same concerns with many Asia-Pacific nations,there is an extreme reluctance to be labelled as a Yanqui lackey.We wish to preserve our national sovereignty and independence of action as the world's most populous state and major eco and N-weapon mil power. India believes in multi-polarity,why we joined BRICS,etc. There is a line beyond which we will not cross as it would be very dangerous for us. Nevertheless,should the sh*t hit the fan with China,India would definitely provide a strong degree of support to the anti-Chin brigade both logistically and with intel.The slightest attempt by China to attack us would see us increase the level of cooperation with the ACB (anti-China brigade) include mil. cooperation. What is immediately reqd. is for the ACB,full and hon. members,to jointly prevent China from establishing mil bases in the IOR and IOR states,exerting max. pressure upon those states who have done so or toying with the idea of accepting China's "generous" offers.

Such joint strategy and networking by the ACB wil help checkmate the Great Game that China is playing in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.AS said before,once it is out of the second island chain,there's going to be little to stop it advancing further.The Japanese take-away of the Pacific/Indo-China region during WW2 would be the equiv. of a boy scout jamboree compared to that of China ,which would stretch from the Persian Gulf through the IOR to the Pacific Ocean and the ANZAC region.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 03 Oct 2017 12:02

Philip wrote: First economic.Vulnerable states should given fin. assistance,even repayment of Chin loans to prevent the Chins from squatting on their territory.This is what India should've done with SL.I said years ago that spending a few billions in SL would be better now to keep the hins out rather than tens of billions later. But as a knowing gent of the ways of the Delhi Durbar told me,"they (babus) will do nothing unless there is a way for them to make money".
Wrong strategy. If one can avoid, one never fight a war on a field where the opponent has a advantage.

Even Bakis understand this bit of basic strategy. While they would like to compete with IA weapon for weapon they too realize that for them it is a loosing strategy based on their economical strength as compared to India. Instead they opt for asymmetric warfare.

Perhaps one is not comfortable learning form bakis so lets look at China. When China was still far behind and could not compete with the US weapon for weapon it again choose to go asymmetric. From memory so the sequencing might be wrong but the Chinese went for "Access denial" strategy in response to the "Air sea" battle concept. Another example would be its much delayed acquisition of an Aircraft carriers even when US patrolling was a constant presence around Taiwan. China waited patiently to build up its capacity and resources even while it countered US presence by massing Arty/rockets/missiles just off the coast. Heck, the same strategy was followed by NoKo wrt SoKo when it was far weaker.

Lets get back to SL port. Lets just assume India was able to get an *uneconomical* port by outbidding China. What prevented SL from again propose a new site to the Chinese for a port? How many such *uneconomical* ports/dual use infra was India willing to pay for? You might buy *first* 100 such sites but the 101st one is all China needs to bring the situation back to a square you don't like. If Mahinda Rajapaksa was hellbent on providing a piece of SL to the Chinese there was very little that India could have done. This cannot be a winning strategy based on financial strength of India as compared to China.

A better strategy is to do what China did wrt US/Taiwan. Start upping the offensive capacity in TN with the aim of *denial of access* to these facilities in times of war and make it clear to SL that all Chinese built infra that have dual use will be legitimate targets during a India/China ruckus.
Last edited by pankajs on 03 Oct 2017 13:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby AjayKK » 03 Oct 2017 13:05

Dropping The Annual Border Meeting: China Continues To Squirm After Doklam - Syed Ata Hasnain in Swarajya

https://swarajyamag.com/defence/droppin ... ter-doklam

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 03 Oct 2017 18:21

Xi Jinping revamps PLA ahead of his CPC Congress - PTI
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reshuffled the top leadership of the powerful PLA, packing it with a new set of generals, vastly strenghtening his power base in the world's largest military ahead of the Congress of the ruling Communist party.

The reshuffle comes prior to the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) which will open here [Beijing] from October 18. The meeting is widely expected to confer a second five-year term to Xi as General Secretary.

Two top officials, Gen. Fang Fenghui, head of the Joint Staff Department Central Military Commission (CMC), and Gen. Zhang Yang, head of its Political Work Department have been removed {That's old news} in the latest shake up of the 2.3 million strong PLA, increasing Xi's dominance over the military.

Xi heads the all-powerful CMC the overall high command of the PLA and he is the only civilian in the 11-member body.

The "ousting" of Fang and Zhang is further proof that Xi is "cementing his control over the military", the Hong Kong- based South China Morning Post reported today.

Fang has been replaced by Gen. Li Zuocheng, a decorated veteran of the Sino-Vietnamese war and Admiral Miao Hua, formerly the PLA Navy's political commissar has been appointed as head of the Political Work Department in the place of Gen. Zhang.

Xi promoted Li to full general and Miao to the equivalent naval rank in 2015 and both men are seen as being firmly in his camp, the Post report said.

He heads the Presidency and the military, which makes him far more powerful compared to his predecessor, Hu Jintao.

In his first term, Xi has carried out a massive anti- graft campaign in the party and the military in which thousands of officials from top to bottom were either punished or purged.

"Whatever option will be chosen, the first thing Xi will do is to root out the harmful influence left by the two disgraced CMC vice-chairmen, Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou," the Post quoted an official as saying.

Guo and Xu became the most senior military officers probed for buying and selling military ranks and other forms of corruption in the sweeping anti-graft campaign launched by Xi soon after he became party general secretary in November 2012.

Since then, at least 13,000 military officers involved in corruption have been punished, the Post quoted a report by the PLA Daily, official organ of the Chinese military as saying.

Guo, 75, was sentenced to life imprisonment in July last year and Xu died of cancer at the age of 72 in 2015 while in custody and under investigation for graft.

Since he took over Xi's focus remained on revamping the military. In an unprecedented overhaul, he had announced that PLA would shed three lakh troops, taking their number down to two million.

He has also cut the size of the army to a million and vastly increased the role of the navy and the air force to assist China s global push for influence.

He had also scrapped the PLA s four former headquarters General Staff, General Political, General Logistics and General Armaments and established 15 functional departments to divide their powers.

The PLA s seven military commands were also reshaped into five theatre commands.

Xi will use the party congress to restructure the CMC, the Post quoted officials as saying.

He may either trim the size of the 11-member CMC to just the chairman and four vice-chairmen or induct heads of the five theatre commands into the high power body.

The current CMC comprises one chairman, two vice- chairmen, and eight regular members: the defence minister, the heads of the four former headquarters, and the commanders of the air force, navy and rocket force.


"Rooting out the harmful influence of Guo and Xu is one of the key reasons Xi needs to reform the CMC," Beijing-based military expert Li Jie told the Post.

The structure of the commission also needs to fit the ongoing military overhaul, with thousands of senior officers being laid off, he said.

Shanghai-based political commentator Chen Daoyin said Xi was intent on reforming the CMC to strengthen his hand against those in the party opposed to his new political thinking.

Xi hoped his political ideas would to be in included in the party constitution at the upcoming congress, like those of his predecessors Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and become part of the party s political guidelines.

"But it seems there are some different voices inside the party against him," Chen told Post.
"The removal Fang and Zhang and reform the CMC could remind his opponents that Xi has absolute dominance in the army, which helped put the Communist Party in power," he said.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 03 Oct 2017 19:09

One must understand events in SL more closely.SL wanted dev.in the South.We had all the opportunities to engage with them and advise them well,offering alt. solutions.We were v.tightfisted as the pro-Tamil lobby in the capital did not want India to help southern SL and the Sinhala-Buddhist population.Extremely myopic as the entire island are mainly of Indian origin both ethnically and religionwise! Now why are we wanting to run the Mattala Intel.airport ? It's far worse than the nearby Htota port commercially! We don't want the Chins there too.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby anupmisra » 04 Oct 2017 01:13

China says Taiwan not a country, Taiwan says China needs reality check

China warned self-ruled Taiwan on Wednesday that it would “reap the consequences” of promoting formal independence, a red line for Beijing which claims the island as its own.
Taiwan’s government hit back, saying it was a reality that the Republic of China, the island’s formal name, was a sovereign country and that no matter what China said it could not change this fact.
Speaking in parliament on Tuesday, newly appointed Taiwan Premier William Lai said he was a “political worker who advocates Taiwan independence”, but that it already was an independent country called the Republic of China and so had no need to declare independence.
Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said in reaction that relations across the Taiwan Strait that separates them are not “country to country” relations, and there is no “one China and one Taiwan”. “Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory, has never been a country and can never become a country,” Ma said.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said it did not matter what Beijing said, it was an “objective reality” that the Republic of China was a sovereign state.


Uh-oh! In other words, the Taiwanese just showed their collective middle finger to the chinis. India may have shown a path to other smaller nations in the Indo-pacific seas on how to stand up to the belligerent chinisthanis.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1C20YF

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 04 Oct 2017 09:37

On OBOR, US backs India, says it crosses 'disputed' territory: Jim Mattis - PTI, Economic Times
WASHINGTON: The Trump administration today threw its weight behind India's opposition to the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), saying it passes through a disputed territory and no country should put itself into a position of dictating the Belt and Road initiative.

India skipped the Belt and Road Forum (BRF) in May this year due to its sovereignty concerns over the nearly $60 billion CPEC, a flagship project of China's prestigious One Belt One Road (OBOR), which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Having returned from his maiden trip to India last week wherein he met his counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis today appeared to be a strong opponent of China's ambitious OBOR initiative.

"In a globalised world, there are many belts and many roads, and no one nation should put itself into a position of dictating 'one belt, one road'," Mattis told members of the Senate Armed Services Committee during a Congressional hearing.

"That said, the One Belt One Road also goes through disputed territory, and I think, that in itself shows the vulnerability of trying to establish that sort of a dictate," Mattis said apparently referring to India's position on CPEC.


Mattis was responding to a question from Senator Charles Peters over OBOR and China's policy in this regard.

"The One Belt One Road strategy seeks to secure China's control over both the continental and the maritime interest, in their eventual hope of dominating Eurasia and exploiting natural resources there, things that are certainly at odds with US policy. So what role do you see China playing in Afghanistan, and particularly related to their One Belt One Road," Peter had asked.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 04 Oct 2017 13:59

Navy chief Sunil Lanba heads to Vietnam to cement military ties - ToI
Navy chief Admiral Sunil Lanba is now headed for Vietnam as part of the overall strategy to steadily build military ties with the country, as with other nations in the Asia Pacific region, with an eye firmly on a confrontationist and expansionist China.

Admiral Lanba, who is India's senior-most military officer as chairman of the chiefs of staff committee, will hold talks with Vietnamese PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc, defence minister General Ngo Xuan Lich, chief of general staff Senior Lt-General Phan Van Giang and navy chief Rear Admiral Pham Hoai Nam during his visit from October 4 to 7.

Interestingly, Admiral Lanba will also deliver a talk on "Importance of Maritime Power" at the National Defence Academy of Vietnam, apart from visiting other military establishments. "The visit aims to consolidate cooperation between the two armed forces as well as explore new avenues for bilateral defence cooperation," said an official.

With both wary of China's aggressive tactics in Asia-Pacific, especially the contentious South China Sea, India and Vietnam have steadily cranked up their bilateral military ties over the last few years. There have also been a series of high-level visits to Vietnam, with PM Narendra Modi himself visiting Hanoi in September 2016 and announcing a new $500 million defence line of credit.

Before that, the then President Pranab Mukherjee and foreign minister Sushma Swaraj visited Vietnam in 2014, national security adviser Ajit Doval in 2015 and then defence minister Manohar Parrikar in 2016.

After inking a "joint vision statement on defence for 2015-2020" in May 2015, the two countries also decided to elevate their "strategic partnership" to "comprehensive strategic partnership" during Modi's visit in September 2016.

As earlier reported by TOI, India has also offered the Brah-Mos supersonic cruise missiles as well as the Akash surface-to-air missile defence systems to Vietnam. India is also beginning to train Vietnamese fighter pilots to fly the Sukhoi-30 jets, much like it has been tutoring sailors from that country on the complex art of operating Kilo-class submarines for the last three years.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 04 Oct 2017 14:10

Foreign secretary S Jaishankar in Bhutan amid fresh PLA citings near Dokalam - Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Economic Times
Foreign secretary S Jaishankar on Tuesday held wide ranging talks with senior Bhutanese officials in Thimphu amid reports of fresh deployment by the People's Liberation Army near Doklam, weeks after the stand-off ended following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Xiamen.

The two leaders had in the meeting decided to put in place more confidence building measures (CBMs) to prevent a repeat of the such incidents.

Doklam is a trijunction point on the borders of India, China and Bhutan.

Jaishankar's trip to Thimphu is the maiden visit by a top Indian official to Bhutan since the Doklam stand off ended on August 28. The foreign secretary is accompanied by top government officials from Delhi.

Although the stand off at Doklam has ended, there are reports indicating that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had deployed more troops on the forward posts in the vicinity of the trijunction point. Interestingly, these reports have appeared ahead of the Chinese Communist Party Congress, which is all set to re-elect President Xi to a second term. These deployments could thus be an attempt by PLA to show off its strength.

Earlier, the PLA reportedly entered the territory claimed by Thimphu at three points along the disputed China-Bhutan border while the stand off in Doklam drew global attention.

Both Delhi and Thimphu are worried over the PLA's move to deploy more troops in the vicinity of Doklam and its repeated intrusions into Bhutanese territory.

A proposal for a trilateral mechanism, involving representatives of India, China and Bhutan, to settle the trijunction boundary point is on the cards. Besides Bhutan, India and China share trijunction boundary points with Myanmar (at Diphu Pass) and Nepal (at Lipulekh Pass).

Delhi and Beijing had in 2012 agreed that the trijunction boundary points among India, China and third countries would be finalized in consultation with the third countries.


Thimphu is also concerned about Beijing's delay to schedule the next round of negotiations to settle China-Bhutan boundary dispute. Bhutan and China had in August 2016 held the 24th round of negotiations to resolve their boundary dispute. Though the 25th round was to be held this year, Beijing has so far showed no interest in scheduling it, prompting Thimphu to fear that China might suspend the negotiations and continue to occupy the territory of Bhutan bit by bit through low-profile incursions by PLA troops.

Beijing is upset with Thimphu on Bhutan's position on the stand off in Doklam, which was in sync with India's. The PLA had started building a road in Doklam, brushing off protests by Royal Bhutanese Army soldiers. Indian Army soldiers from nearby Doka La post in Sikkim had intervened mid-June following request from Bhutan, leading to the stand off at Doklam.

The border and military personnel of India and China are expected to put in place a mechanism to avoid Doklam type incidents in future as decided by Modi and Xi in Xiamen on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit last month.{OK, another agreement is in the works}

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 05 Oct 2017 07:38

More Chinese boots near Doklam - Josy Joseph & Dinakar Peri, The Hindu
A conclave of Army Commanders next week is set to discuss military preparedness along the China border, amid indications that the Chinese may have beefed up their presence near the Doklam standoff site since the disengagement more than a month ago.

According to sources in the Indian security establishment, the Chinese have 1,500 to 1,700 troops of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) stationed a few hundred metres afrom the standoff site on their side.

New bunkers found

In the locality, Indian surveillance has also detected new bunkers. The sources said road construction stores that were moved to the area during the Doklam standoff also remain in the area, and some road re-laying has been done on the Chinese side not very far from the standoff point.

At least a couple of official sources admitted that they were uncomfortable about the Chinese presence and activities on the plateau. “It is not status quo ante,” an official said. “Ideally, they should withdraw the troops and equipment,” he said.

Defence Ministry officials here claimed that there were only some 300 Chinese soldiers in the area. “There has been no change in the levels (of deployment) since the end of the standoff. Since then, the Chinese troops have only pulled back 300-400 metres,” a senior Army officer said.

The nearest PLA base is at Yatung which has a battalion headquarters with at least 600 soldiers, and is 12-13 km away.

Tanks deployed

Meanwhile, Army sources confirmed that the biannual Army Commanders conference, scheduled to be held from October 9 to 14, would be discussing the Chinese posturing and military preparedness along the border.

The Indian Army has carried out its own readjustments in the India-China-Bhutan trijunction, with forward deployment of T-72 tanks and BrahMos missiles among other equipment.


The two Armies were engaged in a standoff at Doklam near the trijunction since June 16 after Indian soldiers prevented the Chinese from building a road in the disputed territory. After prolonged diplomatic negotiations, the two sides announced disengagement on August 28 ending the 73-day standoff.

Officials said the present posturing by the PLA could be in the context of the crucial Chinese Communist Party Congress scheduled in two weeks. “It is more of a messaging by the PLA for the party. They may pull back after that,” the MoD official said.

“They would not want to wait till winter. It will be difficult to sustain for them,” the official added.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Pulikeshi » 05 Oct 2017 13:15

Not sure if this was discussed in this or any other thread, but it would be a shame to not pay attention.

I Won’t Make Jesus Bow Down to Xi Jinping

Every summer, Hong Kong’s Christians organize youth camps in which thousands of teenagers gather to have fun, dance to Christian rock and learn about Christian values. During the last evening of one of this summer’s camps, the leaders of the camp told the campers that “God would make China prosperous” and that Xi Jinping’s pet infrastructure project known as “One Belt, One Road” was “the path that God had prepared.” The organizers of the camp then had the audacity to claim that “One Belt, One Road” would help spread the gospel.

This perverse co-opting of Christianity is consistent with what I have witnessed myself. <P: Both the West and China are using the opiate of the masses!>


Beginning in 2014, the government of Zhejiang Province began a policy of removing crucifixes from the top of churches. The policy soon evolved to razing churches to the ground. The only way for Chinese Christians to protest was to sit silently while their churches were torn down.

<P: Removing specific symbols is a very common methods that the Chinese 'Middle Kingdoms' have adopted historically against the others. Perhaps the foo editor of the CGTN needs to be sent some videos of "Church of China">


In rural Henan Province last year a pastor and his wife tried to stop the destruction of their church and were buried alive. But for the bishop of Hong Kong, the case was not about human rights but about illegally built structures.

<P: This quisling by the Vatican is just a continuation of its historic maladjustment with humanity every time tyrants test its beliefs>


Couple of hypothesis for consideration:

1. The Abhramic West and China are both trying to wrestle control over the "Church," that is the people for different ends. However, this is not restricted to just Christianity, it has implications for Buddhist and other organizing principles as well. These agencies ought to be cultivated more by India.

2. India needs to be very sensitive to the growing Christian population that is highly susceptible to such manipulations by external agencies. The nuclear incident will not be the last, even if it was the most blatant one. Flip side - why not try to do this other countries of interest?

3. Buddhism played a key role in the historic Silk Road, so the Chinese are not wrong in pushing OBOR for the gospel, but they are wrong in not understanding humans and agencies of spiritual organizations. India working with other Asian/African countries could attempt to have NGO involvement in several ways here to push its own Road/Rail/Sea Lane investments.

4. China is struggling to create and build a new world order before India's 'arrival.' She is also doing everything in her power to have created barriers to that end. India has its work cut out for it... as not only does she need to work against such machinations, but also she needs to bring into being new institutions that enable a more accommodative world order for an 'arrived' India.

Something to think about...


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