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Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chetak » 12 Aug 2017 15:33

pankajs wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:

People have short memories esp. If the one in question is the lord of asia.Remember the winner sets up the narrative and the history.

Not if you harm a head of state. Even the tinpot NoKo guy will NOT visit China in fear of his life no matter what assurance is given.

And after Modi there is Doval and then there is Shah. After that BJP and after them CON party. It was munna who did away with "One China" line. There is no victory for China is such an act.

If a head of state is so critical to a state we must keep him locked up within a lock up within a lock up.


there is no shah.

ONLY the cabinet, period.

with inputs from the NSA, MEA and the chiefs. with the HM sitting in for the absent PM
Last edited by chetak on 12 Aug 2017 15:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Amoghvarsha » 12 Aug 2017 15:35

Marten wrote:It's inconceivable to attack or molest a visiting head of state. Not even the PRC would do that. Remember not even our diplomats or agents on diploma passports would get touched. Let's not derail this thread with assumptions appropriate for Wahhabis.

If PRC had to make an impact on a country, u til when would it wait to maximize the dhoti shivering and possibilities of confusion.

Singha Sir, why ignore Masimpur? Not enough troops?


You are assuming that the chinese will be adhering to the vienna convention.Remember that no one remembers the atrocities failures duplicacies of a victor.They are only for the loser.

Does anyone question Churchill for killing millions in Bengal in 1943?How many question USA for nuking Japan?

Lets not assume that PRC will adhere to any protocols or that anyone will hold them answerable if they win.

Lets also not forget that Wahabis taught us the lesson to cheat and win a battle

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby eklavya » 12 Aug 2017 15:35

Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Aug 2017 15:37

pankajs wrote:After that will any country head travel to China? If Indian PM can't be safe in China who will be?

Wasn't there a plane load of Uighur leaders that met with a convenient accident while travelling to China? There was a resulting leadership vacuum that the Chinese loved. Would the president of US go to Vietnam during the war? Would Churchill visit Adolf during WWII? Once bullets start flying all bets are off. Allied powers met a number of times in neutral grounds.
Gautam
Last edited by g.sarkar on 12 Aug 2017 15:42, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 12 Aug 2017 15:38

I hope we have pushed up production of Agni -1's. When the balloon goes up, need to show some videos of conventional Agnis flying towards Chini targets.

Their effects might be debatable, however their PR value is immense.
Last edited by nam on 12 Aug 2017 15:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Amoghvarsha » 12 Aug 2017 15:39

pankajs wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:

People have short memories esp. If the one in question is the lord of asia.Remember the winner sets up the narrative and the history.

Not if you harm a head of state. Even the tinpot NoKo guy will NOT visit China in fear of his life no matter what assurance is given.

And after Modi there is Doval and then there is Shah. After that BJP and after them CON party. It was munna who did away with "One China" line. There is no victory for China is such an act.

If a head of state is so critical to a state we must keep him locked up within a lock up within a lock up.



China wins,Modi will be portrayed as the next hitler,BJP as Nazi and all hail 11 will happen.Victors advantage.

NSA and many members of the cabinet will be with the PM.

The head is important thats why the Americans have 17 person hiearchy of succession if the PoTus is taken out.Do we have one?

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Amoghvarsha » 12 Aug 2017 15:40

eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.


What is the line of succession in India?

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chetak » 12 Aug 2017 15:41

eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.


constitutionally, the authority is wrested in the cabinet only.

There is no waiting in line PM or deputy PM or whatever recognised.

Administratively speaking, modi will leave clear instructions as to who will perform the duties of the PM in his absence when he travels abroad.

Routine papers need to be signed and whatnot and the business of the govt will not wait.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Amoghvarsha » 12 Aug 2017 15:42

g.sarkar wrote:
pankajs wrote:After that will any country head travel to China? If Indian PM can't be safe in China who will be?

Wasn't there a plane load of Uighur leaders that met with a convenient accident while travelling to China? There was a resulting leadership vacuum that the Chinese loved. Would the president of US go to Vietnam during the war? Would Churchill visit Adolf during WWII? Once bullets start flying all bets are off.
Gautam


Sarkar da gets the point.Once war starts the only aim is to win.You can fix the narrative later.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby eklavya » 12 Aug 2017 15:44

Amoghvarsha wrote:
eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.


What is the line of succession in India?


We are a democracy sir. The ruling party will elect the PM. The entire machinery of state is at her or his disposal. When Mrs G was assassinated, there was no vacuum of executive power. Not even for a second. Please quit this line of discussion.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Amoghvarsha » 12 Aug 2017 15:44

chetak wrote:
eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.


constitutionally, the authority is wrested in the cabinet only.

There is no waiting in line PM or deputy PM or whatever recognised.

Administratively speaking, modi will leave clear instructions as to who will perform the duties of the PM in his absence when he travels abroad.

Routine papers need to be signed and whatnot and the business of the govt will not wait.


So the cabinet will meet and elect the new head.He will then take oath from President.Then we have a new PM.

We need a clear line of succession like Khan.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Amoghvarsha » 12 Aug 2017 15:48

eklavya wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:
What is the line of succession in India?


We are a democracy sir. The ruling party will elect the PM. The entire machinery of state is at her or his disposal. When Mrs G was assassinated, there was no vacuum of executive power. Not even for a second. Please quit this line of discussion.


Sir

America is also a democracy.They have a line of succession.Mrs G wasnt killed during a war.We need to have a constitutionally approved line of succession.

PM
Deputy PM
FM
DM
Various cabinet ministers in hiearchy
Speaker of LS


In war time you need not a single moment of vacancy.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Aug 2017 15:50

chetak wrote:
eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.

constitutionally, the authority is wrested in the cabinet only.
There is no waiting in line PM or deputy PM or whatever recognised.
Administratively speaking, modi will leave clear instructions as to who will perform the duties of the PM in his absence when he travels abroad.
Routine papers need to be signed and whatnot and the business of the govt will not wait.


I think the tradition is the Griha Mantri is next in line, that is how Shri Gujrari Lal Nanda became the PM for a short time (a few hours?). Our Pranabbabu wanted that the same tradition be followed. But he got a kick up his nuts and after Indiramma the Yuvraj was given the throne. No Gandhi no throne to hell with electing the PM.
All OT.
Gautam

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 12 Aug 2017 16:10

Amoghvarsha wrote:
eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.


What is the line of succession in India?


I case of war or impending war modi is unlikely to go to chin..
plus we have written protocol in place in case of all evantulities..In fact Head of state can die due to medical reasons also.. that evantulities have been taken into account by all countries.. few years back govt has revised union war book..


http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Govt-re ... 554663.cms

"The entire government machinery, from the armed forces to the railways, civil aviation, shipping, surface transport, health and the like, has to be mobilised in the event of a war,'' said a top official.
"Times, tactics and doctrines have changed since the Union War Book, which has been in existence since the days of the British Raj, was last revised years ago. Primarily carried out by the defence and home ministries as well as the Cabinet Secretariat, the update caters for all this,'' he added.
The new Union War Book, which is with the Cabinet Committee of Security for the final nod, lays down action plans in minute details to meet any contingency during war.
Last edited by DrRatnadip on 12 Aug 2017 16:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Lisa » 12 Aug 2017 16:16

Amoghvarsha wrote:
eklavya wrote:Chetak, the line of command is also dynamic. If the tiger cannot issue command, the next in line takes over. I think this is wrong thread to discuss this issue.


What is the line of succession in India?


Related,

Indian order of precedence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_or ... precedence

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby tandav » 12 Aug 2017 16:16

Marten wrote:It's inconceivable to attack or molest a visiting head of state. Not even the PRC would do that. Remember not even our diplomats or agents on diploma passports would get touched. Let's not derail this thread with assumptions appropriate for Wahhabis.

If PRC had to make an impact on a country, u til when would it wait to maximize the dhoti shivering and possibilities of confusion.

Singha Sir, why ignore Masimpur? Not enough troops?


What was India's reaction to Lal Bahadur Shastry death/assassination in Tashkent in 1966 post 1965 war? Did it not lead to a extended era of Congressi Socialist policies that impoverished India and the rise of Nehruvian Dynasts like Indira Gandhi. Which entity benefited the most from this?

There is no need for Modi to attend Beijing. Xi and China will have to be taught to respect others. For starters apologize to Modi and India. They have to apologize and make territorial amends for 1) Supporting Pak terrorism on India 2) Intruding into Bhutanese territory in Dhoklaam 3) Intruding in Indian territory in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir via CPEC 4) Genocide of Dharmic folks in Tibet 5) Illegal occupation of the Akshay Hind plateau

Sushma Swaraj should go into Beijing and tell the Chinese that only Joint Sovereignty of the North Aksai IndoChin peace can solve this complex issue.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Aug 2017 16:34

Gee! Terminologically challenged.. Pls repeat after me: "AKSHAY HIND". "UTTAR DHARMASALA". "UTTAR ARUNACHAL". "UTTAR BHUTAN" (also, "PASCHIM BHUTAN" where the present standoff is occurring). That territory is Bhutanese. The communists thieves have no ***** business being there.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 12 Aug 2017 16:52

Modi will attend the BRICS summit in china unless firing starts at the border. He has already committed to that after Dokalam. All the rest is academic but please continue.

If wishes could be horses China would have retreated beyond Tibet by now.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 12 Aug 2017 17:58

chetak wrote:
ONLY the cabinet, period.

with inputs from the NSA, MEA and the chiefs. with the HM sitting in for the absent PM


Chetak Saar for first 1 year of Modi govt on every foreign trip Aaj Take TV used to announce that nuclear control was in hands of Home Minister Rajnath Singh, after return of Modi. Later this stopped.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Rajeev » 12 Aug 2017 18:35

Doklam standoff: India showing maturity in dealing with ‘tantrum-throwing’ China, says US expert

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... j-4793519/

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 12 Aug 2017 20:24

g.sarkar wrote:Our Pranabbabu wanted that the same tradition be followed. But he got a kick up his nuts and after Indiramma the Yuvraj was given the throne. No Gandhi no throne to hell with electing the PM.
All OT.
Gautam


At that time in our general public mind was PVNR, iirc he was FM at the time. Aam janta perception was PVNR being senior most and capable too more than pranab.

I remember my political as science teacher telling us that HM is after PM not FM

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rohithome » 12 Aug 2017 20:44

Interesting analysis of Doklam standoff outcome in terms of Game Theory

http://www.dailyo.in/variety/doklam-sta ... 18898.html

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Dileep » 12 Aug 2017 20:50

Our system, where the executive is derived from the legislature is way more robust than the independent executive system of the USA. We have several means of dealing with a crisis.

1. The President can actually declare emergency and take over everything. Of course, the crisis should be real and convincing to the military who are to execute his orders.

2. The cabinet under the designated minister while the PM is not available have all the powers of the cabinet. So, if the cabinet is functional, everything is normal.

3. If the President is convinced that the PM is no more capable of being PM, he can swear in pretty much anyone as PM. But this is not really necessary in a dire crisis, since point 2 above.

The president enjoys a lot of discretionary powers he can use during a crisis.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 12 Aug 2017 21:07

Atleast change the damn venue of BRICS summit. What's the need to stick with this artificial creation anyway. Countries don't have slightest of overlap of culture, religion, type of government etc.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Aug 2017 21:24

It would give too much credence to the Gobal Crimes. From India's pov this is just a small quarrel with the neighbor's pesky children coming into our other neighbor's garden and "going" despite being told not to do so. No sense in adults getting involved.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby snahata » 12 Aug 2017 21:34

Modiji is the most precious commodity that India has for the next 10-15 yrs . He must not take any risk to his life for the sack of India. If something were to happen to him India will be in deep crisis.If Modiji stays as the leader of india for the next 12 yrs india will be in a place from where no enemy will find it easy to challenge us , and I mean no country.A true Karmayogi.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 12 Aug 2017 21:51

Posted From KSG
Comment: On 3 August, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said that India must withdraw its border personnel and bulldozer from the Chinese territory near Bhutan. The Defense Ministry said Chinese patience has its “bottom line.”

Last week the Chinese fact sheet reported that Chinese patience had a limit. A Chinese source suggested that a military operation could occur in 14 days.

That commentary and the series of high level statements signified the activation of China’s crisis management system and that the leadership was in crisis management mode for India.

Based on that judgment, NightWatch wrote that within a week the Chinese would issue another warning. That has now happened.

We advised Readers that the use of fire metaphors would signify that China was not bluffing. The use of the metaphors of fire and getting burned mean that the Chinese leadership have seen no reason to alter their decision to conduct a limited military action.

We herein repeat our expectation that next week India will receive a final warning giving it a last chance to avoid a military clash. If there is no change, we expect that clash on or after 17 August. Events in northeast Asia could alter the timing.

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Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 12 Aug 2017 22:11

Doklam standoff: China playing out its ‘Three Warfares’ strategy against India
NEW DELHI: Is China playing out its 'Three Warfares' strategy against India? Indian strategists who are involved with China in the current Doklam crisis believe China has now fully operationalized this concept and is applying it to the Doklam crisis.
The Three Warfares

The provenance of the 'Three Warfares' is not fully established. But according to sources, in 2003, China's Central Military Commission (CMC) approved the guiding concepts for "information operations for the PLA, also known as "Three Warfares" (san zhong zhanfa). It was reinforced in 2010. Comprising public opinion/media warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare, the Three Warfares have been critical components of China's strategic approach in the South China Sea+ and beyond. It is now being applied in the Indian context.
Cheers Image

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Aug 2017 22:17

Why do ppl keep quoting KSG? What is its pedigree?

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Guddu » 12 Aug 2017 22:28

Its been around a while, sort of junior Stratfor, difference being they offer daily updates. They obviously have military/intelligence chaiwaala/panwaala connections.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby williams » 12 Aug 2017 23:07

Summary of possible Chinese strategy so far:
1. Try psyops using bad poetic english - Indian response - smile and stay quiet. Keep the powder dry.
2. Land attack/occupy in another spot - Indian response - Be alert on all potential spots and be prepared to attack/occupy a different spot of our own choosing.
3. Use missiles, air power to start initial attack - Indian response - Counter attack with missiles and air power. Pursue Naval blockade.
4. Do nothing until winter - Indian response - Dig in for a long winter.
5. Do something crazy - assassinations, Paki nuclear terrorism etc, etc - Indian response - Be ready for any war time scenario as per the classified war book (that includes crazy scenarios)

From the above I don't see how the Chinese are going to win or retain H&D. Most Dhoti shivering on our end is about the fear of internal commie/leftie sabotage of Indian response. That is not going to happen with Modi/Doval in the helm of affairs. Chinese do not have any friends in the international fora. Most powers small and big will simply support India or stay neutral. I think this incident has burst the Chinese superpower bubble and it is the beginning of the end of Chinese bully tactics in the region.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby disha » 12 Aug 2017 23:12

Amoghvarsha wrote:We need a clear line of succession like Khan.


Read the Indian constitution. You did not pay attention to your social studies classes in middle/high school.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Aug 2017 23:21

Funny thing is, Naranja Bandar might pre-empt lizard in NoKo. Lizard is quoted as saying that they WILL GET INVOLVED if NB makes pre-emptive ishtrike. NB has declared that ***threat*** is enough to trigger isntrike. So Lizard has a problem. If Lizard gets involved there, the air force has to rush to that coast. If they start the war at Doklam and THEN have to rush back to East, it will be an unparalleled opportunity to liberate everything west of 100-deg. E. Long.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby disha » 12 Aug 2017 23:29

Lisa wrote:Indian order of precedence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_or ... precedence


^^ The above is for officiating roles., not for governance or line of succession. It is like precedence sitting at a table.

President is the supreme commander of the forces. The role of conducting the war is delegated to PM/Defence minister in consultation with the cabinet and the armed forces during war. The forces can continue reporting to the president and continue fighting even if the cabinet completely ceases to exist. After president there is vice-president followed by CJI.

Administratively., HM is the senior most member of the cabinet and can take over in place of PM. The third in succession is the LS Speaker. Yes. India is a democracy and LS speaker is the voice of the people. After that assuming the cabinet works cohesively - DM followed by FM generally in time of war., but again here the majority coalition parliamentary party affairs president also has a significant role., since the cabinet can be dissolved and reformed and the precedent of the president of the ruling coalition or majority party can become the PM.

Indian constitution is purposely ambiguous on the line of succession. Partly because a stated line of succession actually makes it a target for manipulation. An ambiguous line of succession is difficult to penetrate.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby disha » 12 Aug 2017 23:31

UlanBatori wrote:Funny thing is, Naranja Bandar might pre-empt lizard in NoKo. Lizard is quoted as saying that they WILL GET INVOLVED if NB makes pre-emptive ishtrike. NB has declared that ***threat*** is enough to trigger isntrike. So Lizard has a problem. If Lizard gets involved there, the air force has to rush to that coast. If they start the war at Doklam and THEN have to rush back to East, it will be an unparalleled opportunity to liberate everything west of 100-deg. E. Long.


Lizard eating its own tail!

All NoKo has to do is another missile test and China will be caught with its chaddi down in multi-front war. Not just doklam, but in indo-china sea as well and of course the fire on its east!

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Lisa » 12 Aug 2017 23:40

^^ Dishaji,

Thank you for pointing out the difference. Just for your information, came across this list originally in the Asley Trellis book India's "Emerging Nuclear Posture". It appears that I am as wrong as he was!

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Guddu » 12 Aug 2017 23:45

So it seems that the NK crisis and Doklam one are interlinked. China cannot act on Doklam for carrot top might take advantage, similarly if China gets involved in NK, India could conceivably take back occupied territories, eg Aksai Hind etc. So the question is will the Modi Doval combo have the fortitude to take advantage of the situation, should an opportunity present. Incidentally, this is similar to the two front war situation that India has to deal with all the time.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2017 00:22

karma. Let's hope it all works out for the best, and that IA/IAF/IN is prepared and led by the best. Situation has potential.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Marten » 13 Aug 2017 00:26

Even recovering the fishtail areas and closing the spear tip at Doklam would give us enough benefit. Getting Aksai Chin would be an amazing win.

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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Mort Walker » 13 Aug 2017 00:31

From what I understand the Chinese will not protect NK but will stand in the way of USN and USAF launching an offensive on NK. They want the US to take the first shot against Chinese forces. The US does not want to shoot at Chinese forces either, but if the NK thing goes out of hand and shooting with China happens, then what will happen in the Himalayas? At that point India should take an offensive to liberate Lhasa.


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