Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[shiv]

It is possible that large scale civilian and infrastructure destruction and consequent dislocation of basic services will cause the Indian public to rise against the Indian Government to stop the war. On the other hand, it is possible that public resolve will be strong and will back GOI into a continuation of the war. If that happens, then the CPC is in trouble. Nobody can predict in advance how public opinion will turn out and it's a gamble China IMO does not want to take unless it has to.

If I were Chinese I would attempt an attack that would cause Indians to revolt against the government. It would be worth looking at what circumstances could be set in motion to make pressure on the government unbearable in this regard. On my own, (personally speaking) I believe this will be difficult to do because the nature of democracy is to try and get people to support the government and it is every adversary and opposition party's dream to whip up opposition to the government.

I think the Chinese meeting Gadha Gandhi is part of this but Gadha is too insignificant. The Chinese can cripple the "economy of the wealthy and influential" by taking out civilian airports in Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Blr, Chennai etc but I suspect this would not be a good method. The Chinese could collect up people like Yechury, Guha, Sagarika Ghose, Sardesai, Ayyub etc and get them to do a media assault on India.

But it is not easy to make a 1.2 billion country get cowed down easily. 1962 was different because Nehru was an icon and he chose to behave like a loser and made all of India feel like losers. He spoke tough but when the going got tough he wept, did not send in the air force, begged for help from the west.

1000 missiles is like expensive 1000 bombs. In 1971 the IAF was conducting hundreds of sorties per day and more than 1000 bombs were dropped - but Pakistan remained largely intact. They lost the war when the army was defeated and were hardly cowed down as a nation

[Singha]

some will note I had talked of the need to develop OTH radars and ABM radars to monitor missile launches at long range ...

no point wailing about it now, as it needs years of basic STEM work to get anywhere near a product...but atleast we can start

a few nacheez pix from the big boys




these puppies have around 10 times the diameter of the ship borne radars.

[shiv]

Another thing is that a punitive Chinese attack on India with missiles may be the best possible thing to happen to India. That will wake us up and help us stop importing stuff from China. It will set us back somewhat - but in the long term nothing can make us stronger vis a vis China than stopping Chinese imports

[Singha]

unless we have a solid sub launched SLBM force, the overly dharmic launch-on-impact is a non starter and just sitting up like a weak dog asking to be beaten.

launch-on-warning needs these big eyes OTH kit.

[Karthik S]

It is possible that large scale civilian and infrastructure destruction and consequent dislocation of basic services will cause the Indian public to rise against the Indian Government to stop the war. On the other hand, it is possible that public resolve will be strong and will back GOI into a continuation of the war. If that happens, then the CPC is in trouble. Nobody can predict in advance how public opinion will turn out and it's a gamble China IMO does not want to take unless it has to.

Nope. I predict, here and now and with absolute certainty... once hostilities begin the Indian public will back the GOI whatever happens. They did in '48 and '62 when the peril was so much greater, scarcity so much more widespread, and the fabric of nationhood still in its infancy. No amount of missile blitzing or cyber warfare will change that... it didn't dispirit the Iraqis or Afghans facing a far greater power differential than we would.

That's not to say there won't be 5th columnists. Even in '62 we had Mani Shankar Aiyar (then a Communist) denouncing India and publicly backing Mao. But let's remember, war brings a state of Emergency. There might be opportunities to move against internal traitors in ways the constitution prohibits during ordinary times... and with huge public support.

The great rebuilding that would have to come afterwards may also provide an opportunity to inspire a fervent sense of national mission that often loses out to indifference in comfortable times.

+108

[shiv]

unless we have a solid sub launched SLBM force, the overly dharmic launch-on-impact is a non starter and just sitting up like a weak dog asking to be beaten.

launch-on-warning needs these big eyes OTH kit.

Are you talking nuclear war?

[Karthik S]

some will note I had talked of the need to develop OTH radars and ABM radars to monitor missile launches at long range ...

no point wailing about it now, as it needs years of basic STEM work to get anywhere near a product...but atleast we can start

a few nacheez pix from the big boys

these puppies have around 10 times the diameter of the ship borne radars.

Am sure military top brass would have ascertained what we need given this somewhat sudden long stand off with China.

[Singha]

unless we have a solid sub launched SLBM force, the overly dharmic launch-on-impact is a non starter and just sitting up like a weak dog asking to be beaten.

launch-on-warning needs these big eyes OTH kit.

Are you talking nuclear war?

partially so yes. even 20 mins of lead time maybe enough to save the national leadership and fly them out of safdarjung airport.

I am also talking about the ability to detect 1000km+ launches by CJ10+ long sword GLCM, H6 releasing ALCMs over tibet and conventional SRBMs. OTH radars might be of some help albeit they will not generate very precise data. it is claimed aussis can track ships in north pacific.

the big eyes will not be able to detect terrain hugging CMs but to clear the himalayas they have to climb over 20,000 ft on average which might bring them in range of shorter range AD radars. if they try to fly through lower level passes, we can put in SAMs and catch all the salmon as they come upstream.

IAF has reinitiated a 2011 plan to get large GMTI and ELINT business jets. my guess is gulfstreams or embraers with high ceiling and side looking radar to peek over the himalayas and locate vehicular movements in all weather. else its a convenient screen for them to creep around behind. khan is putting jstars suite onto P8A chassis. ours will be smaller like the below raytheon UK sentinel

[Rudradev]

Does the 1971 mutual defence treaty with the USSR still hold good, at least on paper? Not that I'm counting on Putin to do anything but wondering if Moscow has any obligation at all in this regard if Indian cities are attacked.

[SriKumar]

Another thing is that a punitive Chinese attack on India with missiles may be the best possible thing to happen to India. That will wake us up and help us stop importing stuff from China. It will set us back somewhat - but in the long term nothing can make us stronger vis a vis China than stopping Chinese imports

More importantly, it will bring a sense or urgency to defense production (if GOI wills it) and allow reduction of red tape and speed up domestic process and domestic production. Should hostilities break out, MoD babus who are responsible for moving files/delaying projects should be gently encouraged to visit areas (not far from) the front so they understand the effects(positive and negative) of the work they do. I'll even say that a reason for the lackadaisical (and very theoretical) approach to such matters have been (IMHO) because all wars (47, 62, 65, 71, 99) have been limited to border areas. And should cities get attacked by China, I have no doubt people will rally behind GOI. My reading onlee...

[Deans]

Thanks for the details. For an offensive in to India through the mountains, you need atleast 1:5 ratio. Given that we maintain huge force level, I was interested to know the mass of a potential PLA attack, given that they have been fiddling around with being Chinese copy of "US Brigade Army".

Say if PLA has to launch an offensive against 1 IA division, they need atleast 5 divisions, which is what they sort of did in 62. At this rate the entire Western Theatre Command needs to mobilise, potentially other commands. Mobilisation which could take months. PLA has no option but to commit entire divisions for any meaningful gains.

Even after they mobilise, they all have to come down to South Tibet. Because of the size required, how much reserve can they hold? and where? because they are 100s of miles away from any meaningful human civilisation.

They have to dump fuel and food for large divisions where "not a blade of grass grows"!, because India will hammer their logs links like bridges, trains & fuel dumps. Moreover the Chinese don't have rail links to South Tibet, only road which means most of their logistics would be fuel.. to fuel the trucks carrying fuel & weapons.
This will take months...

The PLA might do a token mobilisation and carryout standoff missile and PGM attacks. If they do, we need to hammer every PLA units on the border with everything we have.

Your post sums things up well.
In 1962, even in the biggest battle at Se La, it was more like 4-5 PLA brigades vs. 1 IA brigade. Today IA has divisions where there were brigades in 1962 and these are backed up by artillery (largely absent in 1962), defending positions prepared over decades (vs. days in 1962) and with the IAF
enjoying local air superiority.
Their supply chain (oil pipelines, fuel dumps and bridges) is vulnerable not just to the IAF, but our Tibetan special forces, who I assume train
for just this scenario.

[ramana]

Ldev, The Middle East showed how conventional missile exchanges work.

Both China and India are nuke armed. None of those 1000 conventional armed missiles will fly. Any missile detected by India will have to be considered nuke armed.

RD you want o seek solace from a defunct treaty on which even Indira Gandhi believed in?

Singha no nuke war will happen.

[ArjunPandit]

Does the 1971 mutual defence treaty with the USSR still hold good, at least on paper? Not that I'm counting on Putin to do anything but wondering if Moscow has any obligation at all in this regard if Indian cities are attacked.

http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article2989.html

After the Soviet disintegration in December 1991, when relations between Delhi and Moscow nose-dived in all spheres, a high-level Indian delegation headed by Foreign Secretary J.N. Dixit arrived in Moscow in January 1992 for stocktaking and damage-control. Yeltsin’s regime, to the surprise of the Indian delegation, presented them with a new draft for replacing the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation. Finally a new Treaty of Friendship and Coo-peration, signed between the two countries in January 1993 during President Yeltsin’s first and last visit to India, replaced the historic Indo-Soviet Treaty. The fundamental differences between the ... et Treaty. The security clauses became irrelevant after the end of the Cold War, explained experts. This is how the historic Treaty found itself dumped in the dustbin unilaterally by Russia reflecting Moscow’s ‘de-ideologised’ pro-Western foreign policy under President Yeltsin and his Foreign Minister, Kozyrev. However, as Moscow’s honeymoon with the West came to an end, Russia under Foreign Minister and subsequently Prime Minister Evgeny Primakov’s stewardship looked for strategic partners in the East, re-discovering the virtues of the Indo-Soviet Treaty.

[Rudradev]

.

RD you want o seek solace from a defunct treaty on which even Indira Gandhi believed in?
.

Not solace. As I said, I personally don't count on Putin doing anything even if the balloon goes up. However, I am sure the CPC would be considering all eventualities if they're actually thinking about a missile strike on Indian cities. Half (or more of) the value of such treaties is the fact that their very existence can give an aggressor pause. That is why it would be important for India to go to Bhutan's defence even if the tri junction and chicken's neck were not part of the calculus... credibility matters in geopolitics.

[shiv]

China operates on the premise that if she gets into a war - no one will oppose her. But China declaring war on India is a different thing. We have a huge chip on our shoulder and are seeking to punish China and make China feel pain if they mistake India as backward and weak.

[shiv]

.

RD you want o seek solace from a defunct treaty on which even Indira Gandhi believed in?
.

Not solace. As I said, I personally don't count on Putin doing anything even if the balloon goes up. However, I am sure the CPC would be considering all eventualities if they're actually thinking about a missile strike on Indian cities. Half (or more of) the value of such treaties is the fact that their very existence can give an aggressor pause. That is why it would be important for India to go to Bhutan's defence even if the tri junction and chicken's neck were not part of the calculus... credibility matters in geopolitics.

The other side of the coin is if the Chinese get their asses whupped with or without assistance from anyone else the emperor will be naked.

[ArjunPandit]

Why are people assuming that there will be missile rain on mil/civ installations. In this aspect, they will have more to lose. Imagine what even few A3/A4s (even ignoring A5) will do to their H&D. In this aspect they will have more to lose.
If it reaches that level, then they can forget their trade ships, unless of course they completely sink the IN ships and submarines in a comprehensive first strike.
While probability is never zero, this is more like Pink donkey scenario and not black swan.

[Mort Walker]

The easiest thing for the PLA to do is take a portion of Bhutan. Would India step up to liberate a part of Bhutan, escalate the conflict to all out war, and remain as the protector of Bhutan? The Chinese could tell the Bhutanese that "look those Indians are selfish cowards who will not protect you, establish relations with us and kick the Indians out of Bhutan and the north east. Then we will leave and you will live in harmony and much greater prosperity with the aid of China."

[shiv]

The easiest thing for the PLA to do is take a portion of Bhutan.

Which part can they take? What will they do with it? Please look at sat images and see what access they have

[Rudradev]

Mort, that is exactly what they tried to do. It's not going very well for them.

[pankajs]

1000 missiles is like expensive 1000 bombs. In 1971 the IAF was conducting hundreds of sorties per day and more than 1000 bombs were dropped - but Pakistan remained largely intact. They lost the war when the army was defeated and were hardly cowed down as a nation

Agree.

Also there is an implicit assumption when people talk of a missile barrage. Question is how many many conventionally armed cruise missile will be needed to rained to take out 1% out Delhi? My guess is that 1,000 cruise missile will not cut it.

However, a barrage of 100 cruise missile landing in Delhi will have a psychological impact but little else.

[Mort Walker]

.

RD you want o seek solace from a defunct treaty on which even Indira Gandhi believed in?
.

Not solace. As I said, I personally don't count on Putin doing anything even if the balloon goes up. However, I am sure the CPC would be considering all eventualities if they're actually thinking about a missile strike on Indian cities. Half (or more of) the value of such treaties is the fact that their very existence can give an aggressor pause. That is why it would be important for India to go to Bhutan's defence even if the tri junction and chicken's neck were not part of the calculus... credibility matters in geopolitics.

Note that in 1962 Chinese actions coincided with Soviet actions in the Cuban missile crisis.

[Rudradev]

Pankajs ji, probably a psychological impact like Pearl Harbor. Which directly led to the establishment of the largest MIC in the history of the world. The CPC will rue the day.

[Mort Walker]

The easiest thing for the PLA to do is take a portion of Bhutan.

Which part can they take? What will they do with it? Please look at sat images and see what access they have

I have looked at the sat images and thank you for posting them. They could launch an air invasion of Bhutan, but with heavy losses. That is something the PLA may do to test India's resolve in defending Bhutan.

[Mort Walker]

My prediction is that in the event of a conflict, the US will remain neutral and most likely cut off logistics for any weapon system as mandated by the US congress. The Russians will openly side with the Chinese, but still provide India and China logistics - for a price. Then there would be a UNSC meeting to put an arms embargo on both India and China. India would be the one that suffers the most.

[pankajs]

Because, assuming my scenario of a Chinese effort for shock & awe via a large scale missile attack does happen and does cause destruction in Indian cities (much more than hardened Indian military targets) and if India holds on to it's nerves through this initial barrage, then that opens up options for India such as blocking the Malacca straits which will in a few weeks shut down China's economic engine and cause a revolt against the CPC or a large scale Indian invasion into Tibet which will also cause a factional fight within the CPC and an overthrow of Xi Jinping. Short of going nuclear, the present Chinese leadership will be screwed. And so the shrill warnings are to try and back India down without a fight.

It is possible that large scale civilian and infrastructure destruction and consequent dislocation of basic services will cause the Indian public to rise against the Indian Government to stop the war. On the other hand, it is possible that public resolve will be strong and will back GOI into a continuation of the war. If that happens, then the CPC is in trouble. Nobody can predict in advance how public opinion will turn out and it's a gamble China IMO does not want to take unless it has to.

A couple of points.
1. Missile barrage, say 1000 cruise missile will case some destruction but not much. Will not take out even 1% of a city like Delhi. Shock and awe in the psychological sense yes.
2. No one will use ballistic missile because it is destabilizing to the extreme. India will not know it is conventional till it lands and China will not know if India decided to fire back a ballistic missile. Too risky even for China.
3. Blocking of Malacca for say a couple of weeks will not shutdown China. Global supply chain will be disrupted, will cause hardship for both the producer and the consumer but will not cause a shutdown of Chin.
4. India does not have the capacity for any large scale invasion into Tibet.

[deejay]

My prediction is that "if" and that is a big "if", China mounts an attack, it will do so at a time and place of its choosing. Doku - la or Doklam may not be that place.

Also, they will back their Indian Assets to stir trouble at all places they have penetrated. Be that military, government or civilian population. Presently, the conflict is their aggression in words and we can see their mouth pieces in India using their language to spread fear. Psy war 101.

So where would they opt to attack India physically? Here is a map from http://www.lhasadaily.com/opinion/23-co ... ina-border.


Does anyone have details on our deployments on the Uttarakhand - Chinese border and possible Chinese agents on our side in this area - Govt, Civilian and Military.

Also I am looking at October for the physical conflict (Post rains and before Tibet becomes Permafrost in November). Though a wise analyst cautioned me that this could happen anytime in second half of September too.

[Mort Walker]

A couple of points.
1. Missile barrage, say 1000 cruise missile will case some destruction but not much. Will not take out even 1% of a city like Delhi. Shock and awe in the psychological sense yes.
2. No one will use ballistic missile because it is destabilizing to the extreme. India will not know it is conventional till it lands and China will not know if India decided to fire back a ballistic missile. Too risky even for China.
3. Blocking of Malacca for say a couple of weeks will not shutdown China. Global supply chain will be disrupted, will cause hardship for both the producer and the consumer but will not cause a shutdown of Chin.
4. India does not have the capacity for any large scale invasion into Tibet.

NCR has over 45 million people. ~0.01% would result in at least 5000 dead in NCR and hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. For most other countries the retaliation would be nuclear.

India can liberate Tibet to the point of destroying Chinese rail and road link and transport infrastructure. It would be up to the Tibetans to take it from there.

[pankajs]

My prediction is that in the event of a conflict, the US will remain neutral and most likely cut off logistics for any weapon system as mandated by the US congress. The Russians will openly side with the Chinese, but still provide India and China logistics - for a price. Then there would be a UNSC meeting to put an arms embargo on both India and China. India would be the one that suffers the most.

America will urge a *peaceful* settlement but will continue spare supply and weapons. Same with Russia. No one will want to miss out of the money then and risk the future contract.

[Singha]

which are the top 20 cheen cos that benefit from business with india. might be good to find them out and what matrix they sell here and how much of their growth is here.

this information is hard to find but Govt has it. I suspect IT eqpt, mobiles, electrical machinery , pharma materials, chemicals .... govt needs to plan for banning them all and making sure alternative sources are available to prevent disruption to economy post conflict.

the trader lobby who make money by not manufacturing here but trading from there will be already putting pressure on GOI. this is what saurabh jha refers to cryptically as the 'dhando lobby' on twitter. this lobby has become very powerful after 2014 if the increasing trade imbalance is an indicator or maybe it was just a recovering economy buying up more - imo both.

i see parallels with the Baudh trade guilds who took a mercantile approach to the arabic invasions of sindh "oh we can manage them via trade" and who paid the ultimate price later.

[Rajeev]

I am not much knowledgeable about military affairs but going by what many experts have opined here it appears to be a lose lose for China . They have awakened an enemy who was perpetually occupied with its affair with TSP while China was making merry looking into eyes of USA as an equal , replacing the erstwhile USSR as the alternate global super power .

Now they have put themselves into a quagmire by those hot airs of treating Indian military and its might inferior to Nepal or Bangladesh . World is watching and if China can’t handle hitherto perceived much “inferior” India , gone are those lofty dreams of second superpower .

India in its measured but resilient response has risen to the occasion that she can defend not only herself but the smaller nations around it and shouldn’t be treated as a fence sitter ready to give in at a short notice . China will be forced to treat India as an equal even if they never acknowledge it publically.

This is also the opportunity for GOI to bridge the gaps between the military might of two nations and by that I primarily mean have Beijing and other cities at our crosshairs at short notice . Expedite Agni 5 and 6 and get our ICBM in order .

[Mort Walker]

Also I am looking at October for the physical conflict (Post rains and before Tibet becomes Permafrost in November). Though a wise analyst cautioned me that this could happen anytime in second half of September too.

October 1962 is when the Chinese started the attack.

[Singha]

for a start, I think india should
- squash the creeping islamist soft takeover of maldives citing national security concerns/safe haven for anti india elements
- put a democracy in charge over there, catch and deport all militants and foreign preachers
- tear up whatever contracts this regime has signed with cheen and vacate these cheen squatters off the atoll

this will send a message loud and clear wrt bhutan and has zero military or geopolitical risk. sure cheen and tsp will whine in UN but thats it. NATO is bombing people 5000km away to 'protect the homeland'

handling of maldives is a big SHAME on MMS and Namo also. he and Dovalji cannot escape his share of blame for doing nothing. this is akin to US allowing a russian takeover of key west or the bahamas.

[pankajs]

In any case this should be an opportunity to up the military spend. Just the push we may need.

[Mort Walker]

This might be the best time for India to test a multi-megaton TNW.

[deejay]

...

October 1962 is when the Chinese started the attack.

20th October 1962 and 01st October 1967.

[Mort Walker]

08 October 1962 the Chinese informed the Soviets about attacking India. 2nd Chinese attack was on 16 November 1962.

[Mort Walker]

In any case this should be an opportunity to up the military spend. Just the push we may need.

To buy more imported arms? Imports must stop. If anything, this must be a lesson to develop India's domestic Military Industrial Complex (MIC).

[Singha]

This might be the best time for India to test a multi-megaton TNW.

ameen brother. we need a 1 TN device atop the A3 and A5 until smaller MIRV payloads are tested. with their accuracy, they should be devastating. the 50s era MT devices were with CEP of 2000meters, now it will be 100m

we avoidably continue to paint ourself into corners with overly dharmic moves.

[Singha]

http://www.firstpost.com/india/india-ch ... picks=true

China's state-run media yet again fired a fresh salvo at India on Monday. An editorial in the English language daily Global Timesurged China to "teach India a second lesson", in an apparent reference to the 1962 Indo-Sino war.