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Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Sep 2017 01:20

I wish I hadn't seen that, as joyous as it was to see PLA tanks burning. To destroy your day too, look at the pic of tank 003 burning. Now look to the right of the pick, near the feet of the protester with the dark blue tracksuit pants.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Sep 2017 07:15

Question: Look at this pic of Pangong Tso. Look at the hill in the foreground. Is that a volcano? Seems to have a crater at the top, and a drain chute for lava? Or are the PLA using it as a playground slide to warm their musharrafs?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Guddu » 10 Sep 2017 08:52

Just different colored mud/rock. Death Valley, CA has a lot of similar rocky hills.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Guddu » 10 Sep 2017 09:27


manjgu
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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manjgu » 10 Sep 2017 11:25

that hill marks the begining of the pangong lake on the indian side..otw village lukung..phobrang...

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 10 Sep 2017 18:34

We have it from the Air Chief himself, that Tibet has no infrastructure for PLAF to carry out sustained air offensive.

So all the drama about SAM and armour randomly running around on Tibet plateau, the Chinis don't even have a blast pen for their aircrafts.

We will take them seriously when they have one.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 10 Sep 2017 19:27

nam wrote:We have it from the Air Chief himself, that Tibet has no infrastructure for PLAF to carry out sustained air offensive.

So all the drama about SAM and armour randomly running around on Tibet plateau, the Chinis don't even have a blast pen for their aircrafts.

We will take them seriously when they have one.


You'll find the same sort of deficiencies for chini ground troops and vehicles in Tibet too.

I've said all along we enjoy overwhelming advantages along the LAC. A modest offensive operation such as one to rectify 1962 is a guaranteed victory as long as we could find a reason to declare war. The chinis gave us the reason by threatening war at Doka La.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby yensoy » 10 Sep 2017 21:17

anupmisra wrote:Image


It's a good thing they do this kind of nonsense in Beijing. In Delhi the flyover would have collapsed as soon as the first tank rolled past.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby uddu » 10 Sep 2017 21:29

Indian Army is so different. They roll in the deserts and icy Ladakh and shoot Porkis and Hans. Its only the Hans and the Porkis who roll their tanks through their capital to shoot civilians.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 10 Sep 2017 22:16

yensoy wrote:It's a good thing they do this kind of nonsense in Beijing. In Delhi the flyover would have collapsed as soon as the first tank rolled past.

There was no need to self flagellate in this manner.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Sep 2017 23:25

yensoy wrote:It's a good thing they do this kind of nonsense in Beijing. In Delhi the flyover would have collapsed as soon as the first tank rolled past.

FYI: I have seen old vintage tanks being carried through delhi roads on some of the flyovers

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Sep 2017 23:35

yensoy wrote:It's a good thing they do this kind of nonsense in Beijing. In Delhi the flyover would have collapsed as soon as the first tank rolled past.

Shhhh! These are Made In China Fryovel tanks. 400% plastic onlee. They fly direct from Beiing to Doklam too.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 11 Sep 2017 08:51

chola wrote:
nam wrote:We have it from the Air Chief himself, that Tibet has no infrastructure for PLAF to carry out sustained air offensive.

So all the drama about SAM and armour randomly running around on Tibet plateau, the Chinis don't even have a blast pen for their aircrafts.

We will take them seriously when they have one.


You'll find the same sort of deficiencies for chini ground troops and vehicles in Tibet too.

I've said all along we enjoy overwhelming advantages along the LAC. A modest offensive operation such as one to rectify 1962 is a guaranteed victory as long as we could find a reason to declare war. The chinis gave us the reason by threatening war at Doka La.

Chola, what you are making mistake is that there is no intermittent military maneuvre where we can occupy some places in Tibet to teach Han a lesson. The only way the situation would have been militarily solved was India doing Bangladesh to Tibet, by liberating Tibet.

That's the reason Han were not able to take any military action during the stand-off. Doklam was imposed on China by India. India is the first mover to a genuinely scared Han to feel safe in Tibet and hence the road construction. The road construction doesn't change the strategic advantage India has in cutting the Han to size. India didn't oppose any road construction even in chumby valley which is hardly a km or two from Doklam.

Han did a strategic blunder by imposing CPEC on Pakistan. In order to double play Han, though Pakistan supported the CPEC, they are not in position to defend CPEC (intentionally or by Design). As Pakistan is not providing the military support when needed (pakis would start a front in India' s western theatre was the strategic thinking of Han all these years). So it was Han alone who have to fight IA if at all they choose military option.

In this situation, for 74 days the Han by foolishly using the psyops cornered themselves into taking a military action (as Shiv sir said, India manipulated Han to corner themselves), which was always resulting in themselves cutting to size whatever option they were gaming militarily.

But the solution to defuse the situation was what India was asking for (stop road-construction). Which they lapped on to by replacing the military commander.

It's all clever diplomacy by India which I too underestimated.

Without fighting, we could show the Han limitations in Tibet, and our genuine interest in pursuing a peaceful raise, which was being obstructed by Hans.

From now onwards, it's Han==Indians not pakis, on whom the Han invested and continuing investing for a number of years. The strategic reality is that, India can and will cut Han to size at some time in future, no matter what.

For the time being, what we did is like what shobhan babu telling sv ranga Rao "నేడు పోయి రేపు రమ్ము" like what SS sir said. That's one heck of mauling (Manipulation). We need to celebrate with Amrut.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 11 Sep 2017 10:02

TKiran wrote:India didn't oppose any road construction even in chumby valley which is hardly a km or two from Doklam.


Better to stick to facts
1. Chumbi and Chumbi valley are in Tibet, not in Bhutan
2. Closest distance from Doklam to Chumbi valley is about 15-20 km up a zig zag mountain path that goes upwards from 2700 meters to 4100 meters
3. Chumbi town itself by road/path it is about 25-30 km

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby yensoy » 11 Sep 2017 10:21

shiv wrote:
yensoy wrote:It's a good thing they do this kind of nonsense in Beijing. In Delhi the flyover would have collapsed as soon as the first tank rolled past.

There was no need to self flagellate in this manner.


Yeah I'm wrong. Apparently it doesn't even take one tank http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/odisha-bridge-collapse-one-killed-11-injured-as-under-construction-flyover-caves-in/articleshow/60449722.cms.

Please allow me to vent. I am dismayed by the pathetic quality of public works and when I see ten tanks sitting pretty on a flyover in Beijing 28 years ago it only makes my blood boil further.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2017 10:29

1. Apparently that bridge was still under construction.
2. Do we build bridges to take tank traffic?
3. Do we have an instance of a bridge collapse that was meant to take tank traffic?

Otherwise the whole thing is retorical.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manjgu » 11 Sep 2017 10:30

how do tanks arrive in Delhi for R day parade? unless some thing para drops them onto rajpath !

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2017 10:32

I am sure with enough digging we can come up with bridge collapse in China and western world too.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby disha » 11 Sep 2017 10:37

pankajs wrote:I am sure with enough digging we can come up with bridge collapse in China and western world too.


If you do enough digging in China., actually you may end up digging out an entire bullet train with bodies!

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby yensoy » 11 Sep 2017 10:38

Deleted.
Last edited by Suraj on 11 Sep 2017 18:45, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Off topic means off topic. No parting shots.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby disha » 11 Sep 2017 10:52

^^ That is total BS., to say "do keep in mind that China has a hundred elevated structures for every one of ours" is just a rhetorical BS to cover for the dhoti shiver you underwent and when no dhoti is left to shiver in you just made a total BS rhetorical flourish.

If Chinese are planning to put tanks on all their roads and bridges against their own citizens and building their roads and bridges accordingly., why are you the one doing dhoti shiver?

It is interesting that you are doing a self-flagellation over infrastructure or rather lack of it while the Chinese youth were fighting for the very basic rights. It is a question of social infrastructure vs. material infrastructure.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 11 Sep 2017 11:37

Saw it somewhere,why the Chins will hesitate to invade India,becos the infrastructure on our side of the border is so abysmal! Their AVs and mech. columns would make little progress ingressing into India territory ,esp. as their troops are so spoilt using superb Chin roads,etc.,in Tibet.

Now the CoAS' statement about the state of Chin airpower in Tibet is in direct contrast to that of the army chief.,who has warned us about future Chin mischief. We next have a retd. admiral calling for a 5 star CDS as well as theatre commanders! One can imagine the inter-service war that would break would break out with each service wanting that coveted extra star to go to its champion!
These contradictions do not spell well for the services in general.Several chiefs ago,I think it was Gen. Rodrigues,who when interviewed said that Pak was merely an irritant but China was our main enemy.He was a true prophet.

If the current air chief is so dismissive about the Chinese threat from the air,Tibet's high alt. etc.,why then is the IAF demanding "only Rafales' at $200M a pop to defend ourselves against the Sino-Pak threat,Rafales to be used mainly against China? In the light of his statement we must take the IAF's battle order to the appropraiate mil td.,but suffice it to say that it IS the IA that always feels the heat first and gets into physical grips with the "yellow peril"always and not the other tw services.Therefore,serious credence must be given to views of the army chief first.This statement also underscores the IAF's preference to fight lordly air battles aka the "Red baron",with the dirty work of close air support as secondary to the war. Strangely,this area is exactly where the heaviest air losses have taken place in all post-Independence Indian wars. The bitter battle between the IA and IAF over control of attack helos is indicative of the IA's desire to boost such CS supporta s much as it can through its own assets saving crucial time when demanded on the battlefield when under its own control.

Nevertheless,Doklam has been a signal warning to India ,reinforced by Gen.Rawat,of the malafide Chinese intentions anywhere on the LAC. WE have to be prepared.I suggest that the IA chief too reworks his threat assessment.He should not later on when surprised by PLAAF air attacks,blame any failure upon faulty intel.If he and his force are is sure of their assessments,then it will come I'm sure as a great relief to the MOD/GOI,who can then save much money and buy for example,Gripens,MIG-35s and FGFAs for the IAF's current and future needs,instead of ultra-expensive Rafales! The money saved could also go towards tanker,AWACS,AEW and transport buys ,though one is aghast at spending $330M+ for a single C-17,the last "white tail" one!

There is a fundamental Q to be asked.What is this war" with China all about? Is it valuable territory,like Saddam's reason for invading Kuwait,its alleged slant drilling into oil-rich Iraqi fields? Is it all about ego-leadership of ASia and the world (later on)? Or is it economic,setting in place a system where the global economy benefits China first.last and always? Bannon's diatribe against China on this score shows that the eco-war is what this is all about.Doklam a test of Indian resolve to resist the Chinese eco. blitzkrieg of OBOR,etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... nt-beijing

Steve Bannon compares China to 1930s Germany and says US must confront Beijing
Former senior aide to Donald Trump prepares to visit Hong Kong and warns that China is at ‘economic war’ with American

Steve Bannon has said that China’s younger generation is ‘so patriotic, almost ultranationalistic’. Photograph: Carolyn Kaster/AP

Monday 11 September 2017 06.53 BST Last modified on Monday 11 September 2017 08.34 BST
Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s former consigliere, has compared China to 1930s Germany, warning the country could go down the same dark path if the US fails to challenge its rise.

“A hundred years from now, this is what they’ll remember — what we did to confront China on its rise to world domination,” Bannon told the New York Times.

“China right now is Germany in 1930,” he said. “It’s on the cusp. It could go one way or the other. The younger generation is so patriotic, almost ultranationalistic.”*(Spot on!)

Donald Trump’s former senior White House aide is preparing to kick off a global anti-China crusade and the former White House chief strategist has called himself a “street fighter”, setting his sights on his next opponent: China. Bannon is convinced the US and China are destined for open conflict and has lambasted the country on everything from trade to intellectual property to North Korea ahead of speech in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

“China’s model for the past 25 years, it’s based on investment and exports,” he said. “Who financed that? The American working class and middle class. You can’t understand Brexit or the 2016 events unless you understand that China exported their deflation, they exported their excess capacity.”

“It’s not sustainable,” Bannon added. “The reordering of the economic relationship is the central issue that has to be addressed, and only the US can address it.”

Bannon left his position at the White House last month and said he would be “going to war for Trump against his opponents”. During his short tenure at Trump’s side, Bannon wielded significant influence on immigration and tax reform efforts by pulling the president to the right, and he will now seek to shape policy on China.

He has returned to leading Breitbart news, a far right website popular among many Trump supporters.

Bannon will be speaking at a conference hosted by CLSA, a unit of Citic Securities, China’s largest state-owned brokerage, and his speech will focus on “American economic nationalism and the populist revolt and Asia,” according to a CLSA spokeswoman. “He’s the man of the moment.”

“Donald Trump, for 30 years, has singled out China as the biggest single problem we have on the world stage,” Bannon said in an interview on CBS just days before his Hong Kong speech.

“I want China to stop appropriating our technology. China is, through forced technology transfer and through stealing our technology, but really forced technology transfer, is cutting out the beating heart of American innovation.

“We’re not at economic war with China, China is at economic war with us.”

He admonished officials in George W Bush’s administration for their trade policies, accusing them of being weak.

Bannon will now take his fight to Chinese soil, speaking to a room filled with investors who owe much of their fortunes to China’s economic rise. Past speakers at the conference include Bill Clinton, Al Gore and George Clooney.

Bannon also echoed Trump on US strategy in reining in North Korea’s nuclear program, saying China was the key in dealing with the isolated state.

“If you’re a great power, how come you can’t control the Frankenstein monster you created in North Korea?” he asked in the interview with the New York Times.

“The solution to Korea runs through Beijing and we have to engage Beijing,” Bannon said in the CBS interview. “[North Korea] is a client state of China.”

Bannon said the US should consider “doubling down” on efforts to pressure China to act through a host of measures including sanctions, restricting access to US capital markets and penalising Chinese financial institutions.

“We have tremendous leverage to force China,” he said.

Bannon previously lived in Shanghai where he ran an online gaming company, but returned to the US in 2008. He has long been convinced the US is headed for a major confrontation with China.

“We’re going to war in the South China Sea in five to 10 years,” he said in March 2016 on a Breitbart podcast. “There’s no doubt about that.

Bannon was reportedly encouraged when Trump, before he was sworn into office, spoke directly with Taiwan’s president on the phone, infuriating China. China considers the self-ruled island a breakaway province, and Trump later bowed to pressure from son-in-law Jared Kushner, telling Chinese President Xi Jinping the US would honour the “One China” principle.

n

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 11 Sep 2017 16:08

Indonesia confronts Beijing's territorial claims in South China Sea - NYT
When Indonesia recently — and quite publicly — renamed the northernmost waters of its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea despite China's claims to the area, Beijing quickly dismissed the move as "meaningless."

It is proving to be anything but.

Indonesia's increasingly aggressive posture in the region — including a military buildup in its nearby Natuna Islands and the planned deployment of naval warships — comes as other nations are being more accommodating to China's broad territorial claims in the South China Sea+ .

The two countries had three maritime skirmishes in 2016 involving warning shots, including one in which Indonesian warships seized a Chinese fishing boat and its crew.

Indonesia is challenging China+ , one of its biggest investors and trading partners, as it seeks to assert control over a waterway that has abundant resources, particularly oil and natural gas reserves and fish stocks.

The pushback from Indonesia takes direct aim at Beijing's claims within the "nine-dash line," which on Chinese maps delineates the vast area that China claims in the South China Sea. It also adds a new player to the volatile situation, in which the US Navy has been challenging China's claims with naval maneuvers through waters claimed by Beijing.

Indonesia "is already a party to the disputes — and the sooner it acknowledges this reality the better," said Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, where he researches South China Sea issues.

The dispute largely centers on the Natuna Sea, a resource-rich waterway north of Indonesia that also lies close to Vietnam's exclusive economic zone.

Before naming part of the contested waterway the North Natuna Sea "to make it sound more Indonesian," Storey said, Indonesia last year began beefing up its military presence in the Natunas. That included expanding its naval port on the main island to handle bigger ships and lengthening the runway at its air force base there to accommodate larger aircraft.

For decades, Indonesia's official policy has been that it is not a party to any territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, unlike its regional neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Last year, however, Indonesia and China had the three maritime skirmishes within Indonesia's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone off its Natuna Islands, which lie northwest of Borneo.

After the third skirmish, in June 2016, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it claimed for the first time that its controversial nine-dash line included "traditional fishing grounds" within Indonesia's exclusive economic zone
.

The administration of Indonesian President Joko Widodo, whose top administrative priorities since taking office in October 2014 include transforming his country into a maritime power, has ordered authorities to blow up hundreds of foreign fishing vessels seized while illegally fishing in Indonesian waters.

Joko, during a visit to Japan in 2015, said in a newspaper interview that China's nine-dash line had no basis in international law. He also chaired a Cabinet meeting on a warship off the Natunas just days after last year's third naval skirmish — a move analysts viewed as a show of resolve to Beijing.

On July 14, Indonesia's Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries held a conspicuously high-profile news conference to release its first national territorial map since 2005, including the unveiling of the newly named North Natuna Sea. The new map also included new maritime boundaries with Singapore and the Philippines, with which Indonesia had concluded agreements in 2015.

Arif Havas Oegroseno, a deputy minister at Indonesia's Coordinating Ministry of Maritime Affairs, told journalists that the new Indonesian map offered "clarity on natural resources exploration areas."

That same day, Indonesia's Armed Forces and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources signed a memorandum for warships to provide security for the highly profitable fishing grounds and offshore oil and gas production and exploration activities within the country's exclusive economic zone near the Natunas.

General Gatot Nurmantyo, commander of the Indonesian armed forces, said at the time that offshore energy exploration and production activities "have often been disturbed by foreign-flagged vessels" — which some analysts took as a reference to China.

Although several countries take issue with China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, few do so publicly, and the Trump administration has recently sent mixed signals about how willing it is to challenge China on its claims. That has made the Indonesian pushback more intriguing.

Frega Ferdinand Wenas Inkiriwang, a lecturer at the Indonesian Defense University, said Indonesia's public naming of the North Natuna Sea "means that Indonesia indirectly becomes a claimant state in the area, perhaps due to territorial integrity issues.

"It's in the vicinity of the Natunas," he said, "and the Natunas contain natural resources which are inherited and will be beneficial for Indonesia's development."

Analysts say that the Indonesian navy would be no match for the Chinese navy in a fight, although the first of last year's clashes involved only a Chinese coast guard ship and an Indonesian maritime ministry patrol boat. It is unlikely that the two countries' navies would clash within Indonesia's exclusive economic zone, according to analysts.

Members of the 10-state Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, have repeatedly expressed concern about China's aggressive posture in the South China Sea, including its naval standoffs and land reclamation projects in disputed areas, and the stationing of military personnel and surface-to-air missiles in the Paracel Islands — which are controlled by China but are also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.

Indonesia, the grouping's largest member and de facto leader, had in the past remained on the sidelines of the various South China Sea disputes and offered to help mediate between ASEAN claimant states and Beijing.

Given that China is among Indonesia's biggest investors and trade partners, some analysts say Jakarta will go only so far in challenging China's territorial claims, at least publicly. But its more aggressive military posture and other moves regarding the Natunas are nonetheless sending signals to China.

"It doesn't make Indonesia a claimant state," said Aaron Connelly, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia, who follows the South China Sea disputes. "They've never accepted the legitimacy of the nine-dash line, which is why they say there's no overlap" with its exclusive economic zone.

"China says it has 'traditional fishing rights,' but Indonesia is doing things in a legalistic way right now," Connelly said. "This is a more effective way of challenging it." {But, China does not recognize any legalities}

Evan Laksmana, a senior researcher on security affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, agreed that the naming of the North Natuna Sea was not specifically done to trigger a dispute with China.

"But the international legal basis underpinning Indonesia's new map is clear," he said.

"We do not recognize China's claims in the Natuna waters — we don't feel like we should negotiate our map with Beijing or ask their consent," Laksmana said.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby anupmisra » 11 Sep 2017 16:47

SSridhar wrote:Indonesia confronts Beijing's territorial claims in South China Sea - NYT
"we don't feel like we should negotiate our map with Beijing or ask their consent," Laksmana said.


Lakshmana Rekha.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 11 Sep 2017 17:04

anupmisra wrote:Lakshmana Rekha.

anupmisra, fabulous.

How we see the tremendous & vast Indic influence !

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 11 Sep 2017 21:17

SSridhar, There are dark mutterings about the Hu Jin Tao followers are being purged from power. Watch the rumblings. Should clear by month ending.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby arun » 11 Sep 2017 22:01

Road building may have stopped (for now?) but the Peoples Republic of China's defintion of what constitutes disengagement and India's definition seem at odds per article regards Dok lam ala Dok la by India Today.

Doklam disengagement incomplete: Chinese troops insist on staying behind on plateau

A fortnight after the high-stakes Doklam standoff between India and China was diffused via diplomatic channels, soldiers of the People's Liberation Army continue to remain on the contentious plateau. The PLA personnel have even built bunkers on a ridge line behind the disputed area, sparking fears of a fresh standoff between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

The Chinese presence on the plateau was raised by India during a September 8 flag meeting between the Indian division commander and his PLA counterpart at the Nathu La mountain pass.

During the four-hour meeting, the Indian Army insisted that the agreed-upon August 28 disengagement would be incomplete without PLA soldiers vacating the plateau. The Chinese side is believed to have told the Indian army that they would get back after consulting their superiors. …………………………

Sources privy to the September 8 meeting told India Today that the Chinese also insisted on patrolling up to the Jampheri ridge which is where they insist the trijunction between India, China and Bhutan lies. Both India and Bhutan insist the trijunction lies four kilometres north of the ridge, at the Batang La pass.

The flag meeting at Nathu La was the second since the August 28 de-escalation when both sides withdrew 150 metres from the disputed road construction site.

The first meeting, between Brigadier-ranked officers, was called for on August 30, a day after the de-escalation, when the Indian army objected to the Chinese leaving behind a flag at the spot guarded by eight soldiers.

The Chinese withdrew two days later, but continue to occupy their positions on a ridge abutting the plateau where they have built the bunkers.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 11 Sep 2017 22:53

Rajaram rambles:

Rajaram M:
ramana, there are 3 big changes in the transition being attempted

1. Transition for the first time is from one post revolution leadership to another. The new structure put in place by Deng was a careful balance of various regional and cultural fault lines and the power bases of the aspirants. This time round the power bases are not based on loylaties but on opportunities provided. So the current leadership and the aspiring or competing ones are not sure of how much support they can actually wield if it becomes a struggle.

2. So far all transitions were made during a period of China's resurgence except for the ones post Tiananmen which represented a serious challenge to power hold of Communist party. That was ruthlessly put down and since then it has been successful in transition. The current transition is one that is being made in the face of some fundamental economic, socio-demographic, political and geo-politcal challenges.

3. All the previous ones were made by generations that lived through tumultous times and know what life was when it was very very hard in China. This time the transition is happening when aspirational Chinese youngsters are seeking far more freedoms than before. They are also more travelled and well informed than the previous ones. However, there is another problem. Chinese fertility rates are at their lowest.

4. Restive fault lines of China will have to be opened up through their various OBOR and other initiatives. Which means the level of scrutiny and expectation of people in these areas are going to pose severe tests for Chinese ability to exercise control or put down any uprising. Believe me, there is a lot of it happening behind a bamboo wall! Be it Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong or Taiwan!

5. Transition happening for the first time where India represents a serious challenge to China and is being seen as a challenger to Chinese ambitions. Doklam standoff will have an impact . Be sure of this.

----

From my perspective, I expect that the resulting Standing Committee of the Politburo will be a result of some serious power struggle with a classic Chinese all is well accommodation at the end. It will result in a Standing Commitee that will have a curious mix of ambitious growth enthusiasts, extravagant spenders and adventurous milatary expansionists. The result will be either China embarking on some serious adventures to gain geo-political parity to the US or a paralytic drift like the old Brezhnev era of the Soviet Union. China can afford neither though!

---

Ramble over.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby V J » 11 Sep 2017 23:46


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 11 Sep 2017 23:47


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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 12 Sep 2017 00:17

http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/us-indon ... -exercise/
US, Indonesia Launch Naval Exercise

CARAT Indonesia is part of a set of annual bilateral exercises known as the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (hence the acronym CARAT) that the United States conducts with partner navies from South and Southeast Asia focused on maritime security (See: “US Eyes Expanded Military Exercises with ASEAN Navies”). Indonesia has been part of CARAT since the exercise series first began in 1995.According to the Pentagon, CARAT Indonesia 2017 will witness the participation of more than 300 U.S. military members along with counterparts from the Indonesian Navy and Marines – known as Tentera Nasional Indonesia – Angkatan Laut (TNI-AL). U.S. units participating in the exercise included the expeditionary fast transport ship USNS Fall River, a P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and U.S. Marines assigned to the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force.CARAT Indonesia 2017, which is taking place on the ground in Surabaya and in the waters and airspace of the Java and Bali Seas, will last until September 17.
According to the Pentagon, the exercise will feature the usual mix of engagements. The sea phase of the exercise will include complex at-sea training in surface warfare; visit, board, search and seizure anti-piracy drills; a gunnery exercise; and maritime patrol operations; while the ashore face will see personnel exchanging best practices on naval tactics during a series of military seminars ashore as well as numerous skills exchanges in maritime domain awareness, aviation seminars, military law, and surface warfare symposia.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby V_Raman » 12 Sep 2017 00:33

My ramble - only option left for China is to bring India into the tent - offer a border settlement much earlier than they would have liked.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Arjun » 12 Sep 2017 08:37

If the forum can take some time off from celebrating the phamous victory at Doklam - it might be useful to recognize some signs that the ground is rapidly shifting from under one's feet. Here is where the far more consequential war of the future will be fought...

https://swarajyamag.com/science/china-i ... ndhi-memes

India Today executive editor Damayanti Datta is absolutely right when she points out that if a Doklam-like situation arises again, China may be in an advantageous position, 'simply because it is leading the AI research race.'

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby periaswamy » 12 Sep 2017 10:02

Right, AI will help China win wars...all they need to do is operationalize skynet. :roll: Besides, the chinese are still at the border in Doklam -- now that their "face has been saved" from humiliation. Like all things, it is a matter of managing the chinese at our borders until something precipitous happens at some point in the future.

For starters, not building electrical grids and cellular networks on chinese technology and not pretending that "IISC has the source code for huawei code" protects India from Chinese cyberattacks would be good start, and looks like the Indian govt. is at least moving in that direction. AI hype is going to remain hype until it is used in some actual battle.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 12 Sep 2017 10:14

If any guru can explain I would be grateful.

I believe that roads and that too world class all-weather roads Doklam and Tawang from Lhasa is actually disadvantage for Han (as Han are worried about IA one day would liberate Tibet) as they would not be able to hold on to that if (when) IA decided to do a Bangladesh to Tibet. What's the logic behind Han thinking?

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Pratyush » 12 Sep 2017 10:37

If the PRC was logical. They would not be picking a fight with every one in the neighborhood. But they are, that too with countries that can seriously impeed them. Why?

To me it looks like serious misunderstanding of global history and global power shifts from one pole to another.

In the last 50 odd years, they have succeeded in India turning into an enemy. Maintain south Korea's alliance with US. Alienate Vietnam, and now indonesia.

If the PRC had a Brain they would be trying to detach south Korea from the American alliance system. Which will compel the Japanese to develop their military and may be build nukes and delivery method.

Instead by using ham handed techniques they are insuring that south korea remains with US.

What idiots.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby periaswamy » 12 Sep 2017 10:43

What's the logic behind Han thinking?


All logic exists in a framework...so one would have to understand the chinese mindset (as revealed in that other thread) to inveigle their rationale. But as Pratyush observes, the chinese seem to throw their weight around just because they can and pretend this is all great chinese sunsoo strategy...all they are doing is gaining more enemies in their neighbourhood and beyond..effing idiots.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sum » 12 Sep 2017 10:44

^^With their ham handed dealing of the NoKo situation, They ensured that the THAAD is now poking right at their @$$ a few kms away from their main cities, all this while even SoKo itself wasnt so keen on the system

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 12 Sep 2017 10:52

Pratyush sir, I believe military threat perceptions are different from diplomacy or politics.

For example, India is genuinely not interested in doing a Bangladesh to Tibet. But that's political position. Diplomatically also India several times made clear that we are not interested in Tibet, including vajpayee's open admission that we would stick to "Tibet is China" policy.

But militarily, India is capable of liberating Tibet. That is a possibility. With Doklam, now it's a probability. Even if your intentions are genuine and you are friendly and Bhai-bhai, Han feel insecure in Tibet, hence they improved supply lines to Lhasa with railways. Till that, it's logical, but improving road infrastructure to Doklam and Tawang sounds illogical, that is the reason I asked that question.

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Re: Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby periaswamy » 12 Sep 2017 10:55

" Till that, it's logical, but improving road infrastructure to Doklam and Tawang sounds illogical"

These are the same guys who randomly draw lines on the map and pretend it is their territory, whether on land or in the sea. Expecting logic from the actions of the CCP/PLA oiseaules maybe asking for too much. They are predators who need to be put in their place.


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