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Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 23 Feb 2017 09:13

Bheeshma wrote:CPEC is a golden opportunity to disrupt and hit chinese inside pakistan. There are so many groups, TTP, BLA, LeJ that plausible deniability exists even if chinese civvies are targeted and eliminated. That should be the goal, all this talk id just for show.


Bheeshma ji, Chinese have mitigated this risk, they know for sure that nobody would challenge them in CPEC. Many people criticized the ghost cities in China, now those places are buzzing with economic activity. They know what exactly is going to happen. Very pessimistic result as far as India is concerned. We are cornered.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bheeshma » 23 Feb 2017 09:33

NO they cannot. CPEC cannot pass via PoK , Baluchistan or KPK without it being subjected to sporadic attacks. Pakabis cannot provide security in these areas. Chinese ghost cities are still there and their economy is in a slowdown. That is why Indian presence in Afghanistan is very important.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 23 Feb 2017 12:12

Bheeshma wrote:NO they cannot. .


Yes they can. Conventional wisdom is that China takes up such projects and pushes aside any threat easily. Take for example, Philippines shoals, 8 years back there was nothing, now they own them. If you still say they can't, then you must be having some extra information which conventionists like myself do not know. Otherwise, it's like wishful thinking like when you want to mastu**ate you think about the aunty next door, who would invite you, seduce you and then...

CPEC cannot pass via PoK , Baluchistan or KPK without it being subjected to sporadic attacks.


Same way, China cannot occupy Philippines shoals, it cannot occupy Tibet, it cannot occupy Xinjiang, so on.... China is not deterred by sporadic attacks

Pakabis cannot provide security in these areas.


Security is required when there is threat, there is no threat to CPEC. Pakis are only obsessed with Kashmir, they are attacking our security forces so that we are tied up in countering these Terrorists. It's clever camouflage, they are winning as our security forces are dying, and the cannon fodder is being spent. Everybody is happy except India because everyone is rapi** PoK and we are not even trying to think about rescuing PoK.

Chinese ghost cities are still there and their economy is in a slowdown. That is why Indian presence in Afghanistan is very important


I don't see any slowdown in Chinese economy, it's not slowing down. Stop reading western media. They would take some anecdotal incident and extrapolate it to show that China economy is slowing down. In 2007 I was like you thinking that China economy and Massa economy are interlinked and China will collapse based on western media reports. I was so wrong.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bheeshma » 23 Feb 2017 12:25

No comparison between the cases you have mentioned. Tibet and Xingjian they were allowed in by russians and chamcha nehru. CPEC has too many internal enemies inside pakistan. Do you think the IE mubaraks in pakistan are not a message? If PA wants to be a security guard them let them. Indian and afghanistan will keep both borders hot in the meanwhile.

The Phillipines shoal / What is it they can do? Have they been able t prevent US from patrolling? chinese economy is a ponzi scheme and you need to wake up smell the reality. CPEC can and will be disrupted, there is no other way about it.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 23 Feb 2017 14:39

Disputes with India 'will persist', says China's state-run media - Shailaja Neelakantan, ToI
Beijing's and New Delhi's disputes on terror from Pakistan and India getting Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership "will persist" said China's Global Times - which gets its cues from the Communist Party of China.

Beijing said those two issues are the reason frictions between China and India "are not bilateral but multilateral", according to China's foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang, the state-run Xinhua news agency said. And India said they are multilateral only because of China's intransigence.

Representatives of the two countries met yesterday in Beijing.

China has continued to block UN sanctions on Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar.

"India always wants to portray Pakistan as a 'supporter of terrorism' in the international community, which makes it easier for the country to link counter-terrorism issue to Sino-Pakistani relationship and blame China's support to Pakistan for some issues," Global Times cited Lin Minwang, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University as saying. India, Lin said, "does not understand the significance of Sino-Pakistani friendship."

Global Times said trade is another "problem" between the two countries.

"India's trade deficit with China is increasing since many of China's products meet the needs of the Indian market, such as small household appliances," Lin told the state-run media outlet.


Yesterday's meeting between foreign secretary S Jaishankar and China's executive vice-minister for foreign affairs Zhang Yesui was the first strategic dialogue between the two countries since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Agnimitra » 23 Feb 2017 14:44

TKiran wrote:I don't see any slowdown in Chinese economy, it's not slowing down.

TKiran ji, it is true that there isn't much of a slowdown, but that reflects government stimulus, not sustainability. This stimulus is only enlarging the debt burden, real estate bubble, etc. Some ghost cities are now abuzz, but that's because of an overheated real estate market fueled by cheap loans that people (and corporations) are grabbing. I myself am unsure how this will play out in the longer run, but it does not appear to be as stable and sure-footed as you are suggesting.

China's huge debt poses big headache for central bank

Structural reforms that have been the consensus long-term solution to this uncertainty are not going very well either:

Massive loss by China’s Sinopec unit raises tough questions on state owned enterprise reform

The solution then defaults to cutting down business and withdrawing from sectors they had expanded into. This is a contraction that also carries with it job losses. This follows the familiar pattern among other export-driven, debt-fueled Asian (and also US) economies, which saw (or are seeing) a hollowing out of their middle class. They manage this by a safety net of social security, and also by a national culture of sacrifice and solidarity, feasible in small societies like S. Korea, etc., but clearly with unmanageable political repercussions in larger societies like the US, and certainly China.

China has sold a 'get rich quick' dream to its population, but when that begins to run into a wall, what cultural paradigm do they have to fall back on? They have destroyed much of the socio-spiritual culture that had stood them in good stead for centuries, blaming it for all their ills. As India sees rapid growth, there will be income inequality and stratification over time. At such a juncture, it will b the character of the people, social charity, and interlocking models of material and spiritual engagement that will keep society together. It is Varnashrama Dharma that will keep it together, via its dharmic sansthas, organized and unorganized. I don't think these are robust in China, if it were to come to that.

So China needs to further ape the West by adopting a colonial strategy of hollowing out other countries in order that its own society avoids that natural leveling out. That is why CPEC will - at least initially - hollow out Pakistan:

Financial crisis looms over land of the pure

If Pakistani elites are ruthless enough to see that happen, and then completely merge with the Chinese oligarchy, then it is possible that Pakistan will "regenerate" over time - and be reborn in a different assimilated mutant - after many more 'Raddi-Facades' fall away. For since there is a civilizational faultline between Pakistan and China, it would mean that either Pak loses its Islam, or China turns Islam-pasand, as a newly forged Pak-China axis plows on along the silk route.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby tandav » 23 Feb 2017 15:00

One outcome is that Pakistan will take the loans and try to repay back the money however it will not be possible to pay back so they will sell POK land and strategic places like Gwadar to China to pay back the loan. Gwadar or more properly Gwadjing in effect becomes Chinese property with its citizens evicted.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 23 Feb 2017 15:07

Thats what i said in deterrence thread. Tsp is already a defacto state of china. Convenient because it can overtly and covertly attack india while cheen keeps hands clean.

There is no cowing down tsp with bmd in 2 cities. Either we build at web scale to scare cheen or forget about isolating and beating up tsp alone.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 23 Feb 2017 15:10

China turns Islam-pasand, as a newly forged Pak-China axis plows on along the silk route.

..this has already happened. China has achieved the feat of having both iran and the gcc in its corner on most issues. The arabs are looking for arms and a place to sell oil and invest...persians want to buy arms sell oil and someone who has veto power to stand up to khan.

Same for most of africa. China is the new sugar daddy.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Agnimitra » 23 Feb 2017 15:15

Singha wrote:China turns Islam-pasand, as a newly forged Pak-China axis plows on along the silk route.

..this has already happened. China has achieved the feat of having both iran and the gcc in its corner on most issues. The arabs are looking for arms and a place to sell oil and invest...persians want to buy arms sell oil and someone who has veto power to stand up to khan.

By Islam-pasand, I meant something more than that - I meant like Mongols going native...or at least willing to take significant hits to mainland in waging war as allies with Islamics.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 23 Feb 2017 16:33

Agnimitra wrote:
TKiran wrote:I don't see any slowdown in Chinese economy, it's not slowing down.

TKiran ji, it is true that there isn't much of a slowdown, but that reflects government stimulus, not sustainability. This stimulus is only enlarging the debt burden, real estate bubble, etc. Some ghost cities are now abuzz, but that's because of an overheated real estate market fueled by cheap loans that people (and corporations) are grabbing. I myself am unsure how this will play out in the longer run, but it does not appear to be as stable and sure-footed as you are suggesting.



Agnimitra sir, I never said it's stable, these periods are cyclic in large economies, and China has certainly acquired the qualification that it's large economy. I am pessimistic in the sense that Chinese economy would not slow down as to cause a huge problem to its economy thereby bring back into senses and reduce its adventures in either Pakistan or Srilanka or Philippines., China is now a state where everyone is a party guy. Anyway you are also not sure of how things will unfold, so we can wait...

More importantly,

China has sold a 'get rich quick' dream to its population, but when that begins to run into a wall, what cultural paradigm do they have to fall back on? They have destroyed much of the socio-spiritual culture that had stood them in good stead for centuries, blaming it for all their ills. As India sees rapid growth, there will be income inequality and stratification over time. At such a juncture, it will b the character of the people, social charity, and interlocking models of material and spiritual engagement that will keep society together. It is Varnashrama Dharma that will keep it together, via its dharmic sansthas, organized and unorganized. I don't think these are robust in China, if it were to come to that.

So China needs to further ape the West by adopting a colonial strategy of hollowing out other countries in order that its own society avoids that natural leveling out. That is why CPEC will - at least initially - hollow out Pakistan:


If Pakistani elites are ruthless enough to see that happen, and then completely merge with the Chinese oligarchy, then it is possible that Pakistan will "regenerate" over time - and be reborn in a different assimilated mutant - after many more 'Raddi-Facades' fall away. For since there is a civilizational faultline between Pakistan and China, it would mean that either Pak loses its Islam, or China turns Islam-pasand, as a newly forged Pak-China axis plows on along the silk route.



I would like to take a call on the bolded part, as I have seen and interacted with the Hans. Centuries of culture and civilizational inherited can't be wiped out by a mere 60 years of party rule. They have it in their genes. It is latent and they are much more dharmic than we Indians. They have given the government (Kshatriya class) the chance to govern them, but deep inside they didn't give up their civilizational inheritance. This you will realize only when you interact with the common Hans. I can give the example of India, where everyone thought that Dharma has perished but then 2014 came and we got confidence that Dharma still Existing. Certainly one child policy has been the greatest mistake, but then they corrected it in 2015.

The whole point I have been trying to make is that we want China to disintegrate on its own., That's not gonna happen.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Agnimitra » 23 Feb 2017 16:40

TKiran wrote:I would like to take a call on the bolded part, as I have seen and interacted with the Hans. Centuries of culture and civilizational inherited can't be wiped out by a mere 60 years of party rule. They have it in their genes. It is latent and they are much more dharmic than we Indians. They have given the government (Kshatriya class) the chance to govern them, but deep inside they didn't give up their civilizational inheritance. This you will realize only when you interact with the common Hans. I can give the example of India, where everyone thought that Dharma has perished but then 2014 came and we got confidence that Dharma still Existing. Certainly one child policy has been the greatest mistake, but then they corrected it in 2015.

The whole point I have been trying to make is that we want China to disintegrate on its own., That's not gonna happen.

I can agree with that. If Indians are expecting a walk-over, that would be silly.

Your observations about deep-seated culture are most likely true. But in rural and even semi-urban India, one sees dharmic sansthaas mushrooming with the burgeoning middle-class - critical social structures that must grow along with other things during economic plenty. These were "weeded out" before the trickle down in China. So even if they are deep-seated, they may not be mature enough at the time when they are most needed (the "fallow" season of the cycle) - in terms of ideology as well as social community. But I defer to your greater exposure on this.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 23 Feb 2017 16:58

as I am a bit busy all I can say is that we need to give Thappads to hans how much ever small and inconsequential they may be. that is the only way to stop them.

We can disintegrate Pakistan, and China will unfold automatically, that is like hitting two birds with single arrow.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 23 Feb 2017 18:49

China says it's pleased with strategic talks with India - Saibal Dasgupta, ToI
China said on Thursday that the strategic dialogue with India, which took place on Wednesday, proved to be hugely successful resulting in "extensive agreements". The upgraded strategic dialogue involved two teams of officials with the Indian delegation led by foreign secretary S Jaishankar and China's executive vice foreign minister Zhang Yesui leading a group of Chinese officials.

"The two sides had an in-depth exchange and comprehensive exchange of views and reached extensive agreements," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at the ministry's regular briefing today. Officials on both sides "reached extensive consensus" while accepting the fact that "China and India have extensive converging interests and huge potential for cooperation," he said.

Jaishankar told Indian journalists on Wednesday that the strategic dialogue covered a wide range of issues, and resulted in better understanding of each other's perceptions on world affairs. But India was still strying to persuade China to change its stand on some sensitive issues while Beijing struck to its opposition on censuring Pakistan based terrorist, Masood Azhar at the sanctions committee of the United Nations Security Council, and allowing India to become a member of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group.

At Thursday's briefing, Shuang also said that "the dialogue reached the goals as expected, and is of positive significance for bilateral relations". The governments of the two countries charted out a programme for improving relationship in different areas in 2017 and advance "practical cooperation, strengthen coordination and cooperation on regional and international issues".

"The sound and steady development of India-China relations is in the fundamental interest of both countries and their peoples", he said. "The overall impression is this dialogue was held in a friendly atmosphere." he added.

Government departments in India and China will continue discussing several topics which came up during the strategic dialogue. They included issues like anti-terrorism, India's desire to join the NSG and Afghanistan's reconstruciton and development.


So, why does China make a statement of a 'hugely successful' strategic dialogue when we know that there are deep issues between the two countries? The whole world knows the issues that trouble the India-China relationship. The reason, IMO, is that China wants to give an impression that in spite of an intransigent China, India has no option but to be 'friendly' with it and India has zero leverage vis-a-vis China.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ShauryaT » 23 Feb 2017 19:13

^This is standard Chinese method. Superfluous talk to impress unsuspecting audiences with zero movement on the material nature of the talks. In most worlds, such outcomes would be deemed as a failure or at least not touting them as success.

We should do the same. Act in our sole national interest, talk nice but do exactly the opposite. Do not yield anything.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Agnimitra » 24 Feb 2017 00:38

SSridhar wrote:So, why does China make a statement of a 'hugely successful' strategic dialogue when we know that there are deep issues between the two countries? The whole world knows the issues that trouble the India-China relationship. The reason, IMO, is that China wants to give an impression that in spite of an intransigent China, India has no option but to be 'friendly' with it and India has zero leverage vis-a-vis China.

Might also be because of CPEC. China needs to create an environment in which India does not become an overt or covert aggressor - or where it looks bad on India to be seen as one.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pandyan » 24 Feb 2017 01:19

All Chinese printed maps, globes now show Kashmir as a separate country. Since China is the printer of the world, every country will see and use these new maps and globes.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bheeshma » 24 Feb 2017 01:54

India should show Tibet as separate entity along with east turkestan. SCS can easily be shown as Indo-china sea.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby asgkhan » 24 Feb 2017 14:31

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-ma ... picks=true

BEIJING: China has made a "mistake of ignoring" science and technology experts from India, an article in the country's state-run official media said today. The report underlined that China should attract high-tech Indian talent to maintain its ability to innovate at a fast pace. The article comes at a time when US President Donald Trump's administration is proposing an overhaul of the popular H-1B visa, which Indian IT firms use to send the country's top talent to the United States. China's state-run Global Times, which has otherwise been carrying articles that are critical of India almost on a daily basis, acknowledged that "China has made the mistake of ignoring Indian talent, and has instead attached a greater importance to talent coming from the US and Europe." This is the second instance of a rare positive write-up by the Chinese daily, which had recently praised India's record-breaking achievement of putting 104 satellites into orbit on a single rocket, terming the launch executed by ISRO as a "wake-up call" for China's space industry. Though, another article in the same daily implied that India oversold it's achievement. In an attempt to prompt Beijing, the article had said that India has done a better job than China in promoting its satellite launch technology.

Drawing a comparison between Chinese and Indian engineers and the costs involved in the IT sector, the article said, "Some reports claim that the cost of employing an Indian engineer is just half the cost of hiring a Chinese worker, which means Indians could see their revenue more than double if they came to work in China."

"Some enterprises in Southwest China's Guizhou Province provide convenience for Indian talent in terms of housing, insurance and transportation and could enjoy a much better standard of living in Guizhou cities than in Bangalore," it stated.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby tandav » 24 Feb 2017 16:09

Basically support for Masood Azar is to setup a leader for Kashmir as the independent country amongst the Kashmiris. CPEC is the logistics hub required to make the military push into Kashmir. I hope India is also manning the Chinese border along siachen glacier. Also remember recently Chinese flags were flown by the separatists

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby tandav » 24 Feb 2017 16:35

Sorry meant Hafiz Sayyed not Masood Azar

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 24 Feb 2017 18:43

I think a group from Taiwan came to India and China was shivering in their pants... they did mention grave warnings to India for not following the one-China policy. We need to actually flout it in various ways and I hope there are discussions on that.

BTW, it looks like China has been able to convince Russia and we aren't planning to sell Brahmos to Vietnam only Akash. A setback but we need to look at avenues to bring it to fruition. And bring the THAAD as close as possible.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kit » 24 Feb 2017 18:57

vijaykarthik wrote:I think a group from Taiwan came to India and China was shivering in their pants... they did mention grave warnings to India for not following the one-China policy. We need to actually flout it in various ways and I hope there are discussions on that.

BTW, it looks like China has been able to convince Russia and we aren't planning to sell Brahmos to Vietnam only Akash. A setback but we need to look at avenues to bring it to fruition. And bring the THAAD as close as possible.


If so India will redraw all clauses for the FGFA to be able to sell without Russian diktats !!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 24 Feb 2017 20:15

Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Feb 2017 05:03

Bilateral cooperation more important than differences: Chinese envoy - Indrani Bagchi, ToI

That's to say that China will eat the cake and have it too. Now I understand why China says that 'significant progress' has been made in the strategic dialogue.

India and China are trying to salvage bilateral relations from becoming hostage to its differences.

Following the visit of the foreign secretary, S Jaishankar, to Beijing earlier this week for the first round of talks in the upgraded strategic dialogue, China's ambassador to India, Luo Zhaohui, said on Friday that while issues like banning Masood Azhar were important, the bilateral relationship was more so.

"I'm happy to see the Indian foreign secretary in Beijing, discussions are still on. China supports India and other countries over terrorism. These issues are important, but bilateral cooperation are more important," Luo said. China opened a visa facilitation centre in New Delhi on Friday, its first.

On the eve of his visit to Beijing, Jaishankar told an audience in Mumbai that India would invest much more in engaging China this year. The last year saw a low period in India-China relations, and the strategic dialogue, the government felt, was the first chance to bring some positive notes back into the bilateral dynamic.

The Masood Azhar block would become counter-productive for China, particularly as other countries like the US takes up the issue of his ban in the UNSC 1267 committee, making it a bigger story than an India-Pakistan rivalry, which is where the Chinese had wanted to sequester it.

Speaking to media after discussions with the Chinese leadership, Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar said, "On the issue of the 1267 Committee sanctions on Masood Azhar, we again explained to them the rationale for that application and pointed out today that this was really being pursued by other countries, not by India alone."

"The fact that other countries were pressing this application showed that there was broad international support for this and concerns about Masood Azhar's activities," he added. "The burden of proof (for Azhar) was not on India," he said.

The Chinese envoy on Friday said, "China supports India and other countries on terrorism... The discussions are going on. It takes time."

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Cosmo_R » 25 Feb 2017 05:28

@Singha ^^^JLN's diffidence WRT to China contrasted with his belligerence towards the US. He was sh**^ scared of the Chinese. They really had his number. His coterie were like Grima Wormtongues dripping poison.... Seriously. JLN never understood violence and how effective it can be in statecraft.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Feb 2017 13:44

I hope this successful news continues... right now its a trickle.

BTW, does anyone remember the Chinese sponsored Nicaragua canal? There is no news about that at all.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepar ... 3a993d3c00

Another Silk Road Fiasco? China's Belgrade To Budapest High-speed Rail Line Is Probed By Brussels

China may be hitting another snag in the fulfillment of its Belt and Road ambitions. The much-anticipated Belgrade to Budapest high-speed rail line, which was touted as China’s “express lane” to Europe, is being reviewed by Brussels for potential infringements of the EU’s requirement that public tenders are offered for such large-scale infrastructure projects.

At a 2013 meeting of the 16+1 in Bucharest, China, Serbia, and Hungry signed an MOU to build a $2.89 billion, 350 kilometer high-speed rail line that would go from Belgrade to Budapest, the first stage of a project that would ultimately connect the China-run Piraeus port in Greece with the heart of Europe. This rail line was to be a hallmark project of Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative — a shining example that China could carry out massive infrastructure projects in Europe the right way (i.e. the Brussels way).

In September 2016, it was looking as if this international HSR line was gaining momentum, and that construction would soon commence. But now there is a slight bump in the path that may grow into a roadblock.

According to the Financial Times, Brussels is looking into the possibility that the deal to build the Belgrade-Budapest rail line may have broke the EU rules on public tenders. None were offered for this project. This probe is mainly directed at Hungary, being a full-fledged EU member, rather than Serbia, whose “prospective member” status shields it from all of the EU’s regulations. Hungary’s deal with China had the development of the rail line going to China Railway International Corporation with financing coming from China’s Export-Import Bank.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Feb 2017 22:46

TKiran wrote:
Yes they can. Conventional wisdom is that China takes up such projects and pushes aside any threat easily. Take for example, Philippines shoals, 8 years back there was nothing, now they own them.


Actually, you are wrong. China doesnt own all of the big Spratlys islands nor the Scarborough. China extended a lot of the tiny ones to extra large size and made airstrips out of them. To be more technical, the Philippines China problem was more to do with access to Scarborough Shoal and also the fishing rights in the sea between Palawan and Luzon. China has actually allowed access to Scarborough Shoal to Philippines after Duterte came in as President. So, its not as bad as you think.

However, the one thing we need to understand: China leaves no leeway in their stepping back from the 9-dash line and unfortunately for them, that will be their undoing too - they dont have a ramp down from there which can be mentioned or something that can be digested by any leader in PRC - and the rest of the world should keep that in mind and chip away at everything. Ditto with CPEC - China thinks they can get away - but it isnt going to be made easy for them to pick whatever they like.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ShauryaT » 27 Feb 2017 00:56

India should exploit the 800+ year antagonistic relationship between China and Vietnam to manage the China threat. We need a railway line from Kolkatta to Hanoi. The Vietnamese have not forgotten the events of 1979 despite government attempts at being quiet and Chinese hagiography of the events will meet with failures they normally do, when faced with truths.

China claims the war as “a victory,” with all missions completed. This view is not supported by evidence and analyses undertaken by outside observers and strategists. Scholars like Gerald Segal, Bruce Elleman, and Carlyle Thayer agreed that China’s 1979 war was a complete failure. First, Deng and his generals failed to induce Vietnam to withdraw regular forces from Cambodia and thereby relieve pressure on the Khmer Rouge. Second, Beijing also sought to engage main force Vietnamese units near the border and destroy them. But Vietnam largely held its main forces in reserve and mainly used its militia and local forces to defend against China; thereby China further failed to dispel its image as a paper tiger. Third, it also failed to draw the United States into an anti-Soviet coalition.

The Bitter Legacy of the 1979 China-Vietnam War

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Feb 2017 09:02

China’s ‘neighbouring base’ in Djibouti worries U.S - Andrew Jacobs, NYT
Image

United States and China are about to become neighbours in this sun-scorched patch of East African desert. China is constructing its first overseas military base in Djibouti — just a few miles from Camp Lemonnier, one of the Pentagon’s largest and most important foreign installations.

With increasing tensions over China’s island-building efforts in the South China Sea, U.S. strategists worry that a naval port so close to Camp Lemonnier could provide a front-row seat to the staging ground for U.S. counterterrorism operations in the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa.

Surveillance concerns

Established after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Camp Lemonnier is home to 4,000 personnel. Some are involved in highly secretive missions, including targeted drone killings in West Asia and the Horn of Africa, and the raid last month in Yemen that left a member of the Navy SEALs dead.

The base, which is run by the Navy and abuts Djibouti’s international airport, is the only permanent U.S. military installation in Africa.

Beyond surveillance concerns, U.S. officials, citing the billions of dollars in Chinese loans to Djibouti’s heavily indebted government, wonder about the long-term durability of an alliance that has served Washington well in its global fight against Islamic extremism.

Just as important, experts say, the base’s construction is a milestone marking Beijing’s expanding global ambitions — with potential implications for the United States’s long-standing military dominance.

“It’s naval power expansion for protecting commerce and China’s regional interests in the Horn of Africa,” said Peter Dutton, professor of strategic studies at the Naval War College in Rhode Island.

“This is what expansionary powers do. China has learned lessons from Britain of 200 years ago,” he added.

A resting facility: Beijing


Chinese officials play down the significance of the base, saying it will largely support anti-piracy operations that have helped quell the threat to international shipping once posed by marauding Somalis.

“The support facility will be mainly used to provide rest and rehabilitation for the Chinese troops taking part in escort missions in the Gulf of Aden and waters off Somalia, UN peacekeeping and humanitarian rescue,” the Defence Ministry in Beijing said.

In addition to having 2,400 peacekeepers in Africa, China has used its vessels to escort more than 6,000 boats from many countries through the Gulf of Aden, the Ministry said.

China’s military has also evacuated its citizens caught in the world’s trouble spots. In 2011, the military plucked 35,000 from Libya, and 600 from Yemen in 2015.

Beijing also said that China was not budging from its “defensive” military policy and that the base did not indicate an “arms race or military expansion.”

U.S. officials say they were blindsided by Djibouti’s decision, announced last year, to give China a 10-year lease for the land.

In interviews, Djiboutian officials expressed little concern that two strategic adversaries would be sharing space.

It helps that the Chinese are paying $20 million a year in rent to the country, on top of the billions they are spending to finance critical infrastructure, including ports and airports, a new rail line and a pipeline that will bring desperately needed drinking water from neighbouring Ethiopia.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 27 Feb 2017 11:15

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... 3178e7197b

CPEC: While Northwest China Enjoys Pakistani Seafood, India Feels Beijing's Presence


The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is changing life in China’s Northwest Xinjiang Uyghur region, bringing something special to the region: seafood from Pakistan.

This little bonus is being shipped by container trucks through the corridor, which currently accounts for 2 percent of the total trade between the two countries; and more goods are expected to come through CPEC from the Middle East and Africa.

That’s certainly a good return for China’s enormous investment in the project, which some experts call the Marshall Plan for Pakistan.

“The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been described as a Marshall Plan for Pakistan,” says Marko Dimitrijevic author of Frontier Investor. “It is a $51 billion, 15 year project that will ultimately create a 2,000 kilometer highway/railway/pipeline route from Western China to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, knocking over 10,000 kilometers off the current sea route for Middle Eastern oil to China; a high-speed railway from Karachi to Lahore to Peshawar; and over 26,000 MW of electric generating capacity.”

CPEC is part of China’s ambition to write the rules of the next stage of globalization and help Beijing sustain growth—a good prospect for investors in Chinese equities, which have been lagging behind those of neighboring India over the last five-year period.

--
I expect India to take up a fight sometime - roads of CPEC should not be allowed to go through Gilgit-Baltistan just like that.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Feb 2017 01:20

"Good old Taiwan, the new element in tricky India-China ties"
https://qz.com/919697/good-old-taiwan-t ... hina-ties/

....That China and India failed in resolving their differences is not surprising. What is refreshing is the candour with which Indian diplomacy is taking on China.

As divergences grow between Asia’s two rising powers, the strategic dialogue is aimed at exchanging regional and global issues of mutual interest. But India’s attitude seems to be now undergoing a significant shift. And one of the more interesting developments on that front has been Indian attempts to bring Taiwan into the Sino-Indian equation.


India and Taiwan share a range of mutual interests from managing the rise of the China factor to economic, and institutional collaboration. The Modi government, which is reviewing its China policy, may have found in Taiwan a partner as it enhances its profile in the Indo-Pacific. A robust engagement with Taipei might help India better understand Beijing’s strategic thinking. New Delhi is now seeking to conduct its China policy on strict reciprocity. It has been advising China that it ought to respect other countries’ sensitivities and sovereignty, if it wants the same for itself. Taiwan’s emergence from the backwaters of Indian foreign policy might be a sign that Indian policymakers are serious about their rhetoric.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ShauryaT » 28 Feb 2017 02:12

A full fledged desire to degrade India's ambitions in full force.

India needs to acknowledge its asymmetry with China: Chinese daily

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Feb 2017 13:51

^ China wants to practice many precepts of Sun Tzu.

Humiliating other nations is one of them. By the way, Koran also says how dhimmis must be treated so humiliatingly that they lose their will to live and fight and accept meekly the third rate citizenship and eventually even convert. But, that's another story.

In the famous Scaraborough Shoal standoff of c. 2012 between China & Philippines, the Chinese did not send their PLAN or even their Coast Guard; it instead sent dozens of fishing trawlers to face the pride of the Philippines Navy, a refurbished US naval ship. The message was humiliatingly clear to the Philippinos. A decade earlier, the US navy had vacated Subic Bay and the Chinese had immensely strengthened their navy during this period. There was another chilling message to the Philippinos which was that the seas around the Philippines which form the lifeline of the Philippines for seafood and energy, was firmly a Chinese territory and the Chinese government was just trying to protect its maritime boundaries. It was not sending its Navy to claim any new territory!

The 1962 India war was also to 'teach a lesson' to India and put it in its place. It employed other techniques also to humiliate India such as launching an offensive against the Vietnamese "to teach them a lesson', a phraseology of painful reminder to us, when Vajpayee was on an official visit to Beijing as India's Foreign Minister in c. 1979. It is for the same reason that Beijing conducted a test in Lop Nor when the Indian President was in Beijing. PRC has always been dismissive about India in editorials and articles, the same way it has been dismissive about the Philippines Navy. The repeated 'technical holds' on including Masood Azhar under the UNSC 1267 list is a manifestation of such a humiliating practice, conveying to us that we can do little about it. NSG, at least, is a slightly different matter. The repeated incursions into Indian territory whenever a high-level political visit takes place between India & China also belongs to this category.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kit » 28 Feb 2017 14:37

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-angrily-reacts-with-threats-after-south-korean-missile-defense-decision/articleshow/57389451.cms


We also propose that Chinese society should coordinate voluntarily in expanding restrictions on South Korean cultural goods and entertainment exports to China, and block them when necessary," it said in its English-language edition.

The paper's Chinese version said South Korean cars and cellphones should be targeted as well.

"There are loads of substitutes for South Korean cars and cellphones," it said.

The WeChat account of the overseas edition of the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily said late on Monday that cutting diplomatic ties should also be considered.


"If THAAD is really deployed in South Korea, then China-South Korea relations will face the possibility of getting ready to cut off diplomatic relations," it said.

The official Xinhua news agency also said in a commentary late on Monday that China "did not welcome this kind of Lotte".

"Chinese consumers can absolutely say no to this kind of company and their goods based on considerations of 'national security'," it said.


time for the Indian society to think similalry about China that arms its enemy Pakistan with nuclear weapons and missiles

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Feb 2017 18:26

India, China seek common ground on Afghanistan - Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu
Despite differences on a number of issues, including over the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), U.N. designation of Masood Azhar as a terrorist, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, India and China have begun to look for a “common ground” on Afghanistan {I don't know what advantage India has in aligning with a China which wants to dislodge Indian influence in Afghanistan. We are being led down the altar of sacrifice} during Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar’s visit to Beijing last week, official sources have told The Hindu .

Officials reportedly even discussed the possibility of “joint development projects” that could be undertaken despite economic rivalries between the two countries in other parts of the subcontinent.

The Foreign Secretary’s visit, which saw a restructured “Strategic Dialogue” with Chinese executive Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Zhang Yesui, also witnessed an effort by both sides to “stabilise India-China relations” at a time the world is experiencing a new “volatility,” a senior official said, indicating a shifting global calculus due to the recent surprise foreign and trade policy moves by the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump.

“The overarching concern during the talks seemed to be that China had grown economically, and India has been growing because of a predictable international system so far,” one official, privy to the talks, said. “Each one of us is affected by the new unpredictability, and we must do what we can to bring down the volatility, instead of playing up our differences.”

Officials who were privy to the negotiations told The Hindu that there was still little movement on issues that have been most highlighted in the past year, mainly over Masood Azhar, where China has put a technical hold at the U.N. that will lapse in July, and the NSG, where India’s membership will be taken up again at the plenary session in June.

Another possible flashpoint in May 2017 is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s global conference on the “Belt and Road Initiative (B&R I),” where the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that runs through PoK and Gilgit Baltistan will be highlighted {CPEC is a showcase project for China to 'catch' other countries too} and which Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to attend. Officials said that India had “made it clear” that it would be unable to take part in the conference, given the “sovereignty issues.”

While talks on Azhar and the NSG failed to see any breakthrough, the fact that both the Indian and Chinese delegations included officials dealing with Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as the U.N. and multilateral ties showed that China was “open to finding solutions,” the official said. {China *WILL NOT* find any solutions that would satisfy India. Indian officials are day-dreaming and sorely out of touch with reality. Increasingly, India seems to be clueless both with China & Pakistan.} To that end, the strategic dialogue was divided into five different “sub-groups,” including Afghanistan, Nuclear issues, United Nations including the 1267 designation committee, India-China Bilateral issues, and consular and visa matters, or people-to-people ties, with Joint Secretaries Pradeep Rawat for East Asia, Pankaj Sharma for (nuclear) Disarmament, Rudrendra Tandon for UN, and Gopal Baglay (appointed MEA spokesperson on Monday) for Pakistan-Afghanistan and Iran leading the discussions on the issues.

On Afghanistan, it is learnt that the Chinese government, which proposed a separate discussion, had expressed its “admiration” for India’s work on developmental projects, including the Salma Dam in Herat that was inaugurated by Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister Modi.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 28 Feb 2017 23:49

No Friend and Father of Pakistan can win heart and mind in Afghanistan. India should now allow PRC to piggy back our good efforts.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bheeshma » 28 Feb 2017 23:57

China should acknowledge Indian superiority in space launches and planetary research and stop wasting time and money on it. They should stick to low quality goods and cheap plastics. :rotfl: What is left unsaid is even since A-3 and A-5 chinese are shitting in their pants. They know the game is up and now even Japan and SoKo will stare them down. Ironically A-4 is what is meant for china not A-5 or anything bigger.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 01 Mar 2017 09:41

I so love this. I hope Trump actually moves ahead with the THAAD move. And Chinese do what they do best - stand resolutely again it with impotence. For once, the tables will truly be turned and the Chinese govt will truly feel how the rest of the world and particularly the neighbors in SCS and land borders feel when a powerful country tries to do as it pleases.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-south ... me=topNews

China reacts with anger, threats after South Korean missile defense decision

Chinese state media have reacted with anger and boycott threats after the board of an affiliate of South Korea's Lotte Group approved a land swap with the government that allows authorities to deploy a U.S. missile defense system.

The government decided last year to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, in response to the North Korean missile threat, on land that is part of a golf course owned by Lotte in the Seongju region, southeast of Seoul.

The board of unlisted Lotte International Co Ltd approved the deal with the government on Monday.

China objects to the deployment in South Korea of the THAAD, which has a powerful radar capable of penetrating Chinese territory, with Beijing saying it is a threat to its security and will do nothing to ease tension with North Korea.

Lotte should be shown the door in China, the influential state-run Chinese tabloid the Global Times said in an editorial on Tuesday.

"We also propose that Chinese society should coordinate voluntarily in expanding restrictions on South Korean cultural goods and entertainment exports to China, and block them when necessary," it said in its English-language edition.

The paper's Chinese version said South Korean cars and cellphones should be targeted as well.

"There are loads of substitutes for South Korean cars and cellphones," it said.

...

Actually looking back at all the past experiences / history, no country is so cheap as China when it comes to trying a direct trade war when the other countries dont now-tow to their own cheap agenda. Heck, even UK / US was not this cheap earlier. Sometimes, I feel that we all missed the bus / boat when we allowed the Chinese to gain UN permanent membership (far back) to more recently improved access to IMF (RMB was accepted into the basket of currencies; not being called a currency manipulator etc etc). We as a world should go much more slowly when it comes to accepting China - its only through abject humiliation of their policies / approach that we can make them understand - all said and done, they cant win a war that erupts because most of the world will be against them.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 01 Mar 2017 11:15

On more thought: In fact, this is the time when the rest of the countries should be calling upon China to take heed of the relevant countries and do things which are directed towards peace and stability in the region.

Basically parrot the idiots in the Chinese foreign ministry and beat them at their own game.

A brief of what I mean:

Geng Shuang, foreign ministry spokesman, a few days back while responding to a qn:

Geng replied, “The Chinese side has noted relevant reports. The Chinese side always respects the freedom of navigation and over-flight that countries enjoy in the South China Sea under international law. But we oppose relevant countries' threatening and undermining sovereignty and security of coastal countries under the banner of ‘freedom of navigation and over-flight.’ We hope that relevant countries can do more things that are conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability.”


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