Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

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Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 17 Sep 2014 15:18

Will there be a "Thaw or continued Cold War" with China after the Indo-Chinese summit? There are many very serious issues which India has to speak directly to China about:

1.Border violations.

2.Stapled passports.Ar.P and J&K ,both Indian territory.

3.Tibetan harassment.

4.Continued military/nuclear/terrorist support to Pak.

5.Massive trade imbalance in China's favour.

6.BRICS development.

7.SCO-India's membership.

8.Chinese presence in Sri Lanka,India's backyard.

9.Eco agreements.

These can be debated as the summit unfolds.India must stand firm and tell China that it too can use the "T" card,Taiwan and Tibet if it continues to harm India.India too can develop defence /strategic relations with China's neighbours too,like Vietnam an Japan.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby SSridhar » 17 Sep 2014 15:25

^ Since you have listed some issues, I am quoting from the Comments section of The Hindu's Editorial today, "A Historic Opportunity"

Growing differences between India and China are as follows- 1. String of pearls to contain India 2. Maritime silk route to influence south and south east Asia 3. Increasing presence of China in Sri Lanka and Maldives 4. Nuclear support to Pakistan 5. De march to india on oil drilling at South China sea 6. Claim on arunachal pradesh 7. Border disputes 8. Repeated border incursions 9. Construction of dams on river brahmaputra 10. Trade deficit 11. Issue of chumbi valley 12. Promoting insurgency groups in North eastern india 13. Influencing Nepal 14. Construction of projects in POK


Excellent anthology that covers all the issues. Please add a few more, issue of stapled visas and freedom of navigation in South & East China Seas (INS Airavat episode). Government-sponsored cyber warfare against India, China’s implicit recognition of PoK as legitimate part of Pakistan while contending India's J&K alone as disputed, refusal to support India for the UNSC (the only P-5 nation to do so), its reluctance to support India's counter-terrorism efforts (twice in the UNSC, China shot down Indian proposals to declare LeT and Hafiz Saeed as terrorists), its objections to India joining various multilateral fora such as RCEP, ASEAN etc, and its propensity to pitch for Pakistan as an equal to India whenever India's membership is considered in such organizations as NSG, MTCR, Wassenaar, Australia Group et al thereby queering the proceedings.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby SSridhar » 17 Sep 2014 15:47

China is compelled by reasons of falling growth, mounting economic disparity, a sense of being encircled, growing internal dissension etc to strike a deceptive deal with India where it wants to have more of an one-way trade with us, the only remaining biggest market it has not penetrated much. China feels that all its problems can be solved through more wealth [for itself] through trade. It wants to give a semblance of being genuinely interested in less developed countries which is just a mask to further solely its objectives. This is the strategy it is adopting with us too now. At the same time, it does not want to move forward on the border issue, except to make some noise of forward movement now and then while continuing to keep pressure on us with intrusions, leaving the dispute to the future hoping that time would be on its side even more.

We should pay a close scrutiny to Xi's visit.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Ardeshir » 17 Sep 2014 16:29

Business will go on, as will the 'skirmishes'. China isn't used to being challenged on a variety of issues, and an assertive Indian government might see to it that China finds the cost of misbehaviour to be higher than the cost of co-operation.

Assertive India behind frequent border stand-offs in Ladakh?

"The new government is clear on letting go off too much restraint in dealing with China. All these developments have irritated PLA soldiers no end and in reply they are flexing their muscle in Chumar and Dhemchok where they are supporting the civilians on their side," said the official.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Deans » 17 Sep 2014 16:38

These lists have all valid concerns. I do not believe however that there is merit in discussing things from a position of weakness and where we have little leverage. Hence, rather than discussing `String of Pearls' - where we will plead with China not to do items 1,2,3, & 13 in the Chindu article, we should discuss nothing and simply do things like invite the Taiwanese Premier to India, exercise with the Japanese Navy, do more oil drilling in Vietnam etc, staple visas for Tibetans etc.
It will then be the Chinese that will ask us to discuss these things and will be more amenable to a settlement.

Similarly, on the economic side, there is no point telling China that the trade balance is sharply in their favor. Instead, we simply levy an anti dumping duty on Chinese imports - which will be handled in an arbitrary and capricious manner by our babu's, till the Chinese decide to play ball.

The only thing we really need to discuss is Chinese investment in our infrastructure. Having $ 30+ bln of Chinese money tied up in our projects subject to the whim of our bureaucracy, gives us huge leverage. For e.g. we can suddenly decide that companies investing in Pakistan's railways will be barred from operating in India (of course, after 90% of the project is complete), or SC could decide to cancel licenses of mines they decide to invest in.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby ashi » 17 Sep 2014 20:07

Philip wrote:
These can be debated as the summit unfolds.India must stand firm and tell China that it too can use the "T" card,Taiwan and Tibet if it continues to harm India.


You are a decade late to play those T cards. Not even U.S is playing those cards because they are too insignificant. You can hardly hear any news about them nowadays.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby chaanakya » 17 Sep 2014 21:24

Some great photos of NaMo with Xi

I didn't know ( though suspected always) that Cheeni in Hindi ( Sugar) had some link to China. But excess of it gave diabetes to india.

Image

Image

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Prem » 17 Sep 2014 21:25

ashi wrote:
Philip wrote:These can be debated as the summit unfolds.India must stand firm and tell China that it too can use the "T" card,Taiwan and Tibet if it continues to harm IndiaYou are a decade late to play those T cards. Not even U.S is playing those cards because they are too insignificant. You can hardly hear any news about them nowadays.


US dont have the access or influence to play the Tibet card in way India can. Then there is T for Trade and T for Uigher Terrorism which provide US huge leverage. Taiwan should be left for Japan to handle just like Vietnam's growing friendship with India.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Arihant » 17 Sep 2014 21:30

ashi wrote:
Philip wrote:
These can be debated as the summit unfolds.India must stand firm and tell China that it too can use the "T" card,Taiwan and Tibet if it continues to harm India.


You are a decade late to play those T cards. Not even U.S is playing those cards because they are too insignificant. You can hardly hear any news about them nowadays.


I'm not sure that the absence of attention in Western (or Indian) media on Taiwan or Tibet renders them insignificant.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Supratik » 17 Sep 2014 21:38

I hear talk about Chinese investments in railways. From the experience of Pak rail I hope India sticks to the Japs and other sources than buying Chinese junk.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 17 Sep 2014 22:37

ashi wrote:
Philip wrote:These can be debated as the summit unfolds.India must stand firm and tell China that it too can use the "T" card,Taiwan and Tibet if it continues to harm India.

You are a decade late to play those T cards. Not even U.S is playing those cards because they are too insignificant. You can hardly hear any news about them nowadays.

I disagree. India has had the Tibet card ever since 1959. The west often talks about 'playing the Tibet card' not realizing that merely inviting His Holiness the Dalai Lama does nothing - India has hosted his government-in-exile for decades in the face of Chinese anger.

Right now is about the best time to play the Taiwan card - they were never more vulnerable.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Shanmukh » 17 Sep 2014 22:58

100 more Chinese Soldiers enter Chumar.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 735992.cms

Is it just me, or do the others think that the Chinese are going back to gunboat diplomacy of the late 1800s? This business of having soldiers cross borders and negotiating under the threat of force is something that should have gone out of fashion with WW1. And the Chinese habit of disregarding agreements once their interests are satisfied is something that makes them totally unreliable as allies. I wonder what kind of peace is even possible with China.

@Suraj,
Regarding the Taiwan card, are the Taiwanese even willing to play ball? Last I saw, they were themselves unsure what they wanted. Half of them are the `Blue Star on the Tiananmen' types, the other half are the `Declare Taiwanese independence from China' types. You never know which bunch happens to be on top. Given this situation, exactly what role do you see for India with the Taiwanese?

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby pankajs » 17 Sep 2014 23:00

If Tibet, Taiwan, etc cards are too insignificant then why does China keep stressing "One China" in all joint deceleration. That in itself suggests Chinese anxieties on those issues.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_23061 » 17 Sep 2014 23:12

Why cant we detain these 'civilians' squatting on our territory. Clearly the Chinese have adapted to the Modi admin's policy of creating living spaces on the borders to prevent encroachment.

Something is sure ticking off the Chinese and to me, that's a good sign!

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 17 Sep 2014 23:19

Rather than being emotionally invested in Chinese incursions, it's more meaningful to see them as what they are - coldly calculated actions being used to check how much Modi's hardline rhetoric is backed by resolve to act. Handwringing does not serve a purpose. Wait to hear about what happened next, over there.


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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20292 » 17 Sep 2014 23:25

Suraj wrote:card' not realizing that merely inviting His Holiness the Dalai Lama does nothing - India has hosted his government-in-exile for decades in the face of Chinese anger.

Right now is about the best time to play the Taiwan card - they were never more vulnerable.


you mean Taiwan is quite weak now? yes, relatively speaking. and they are good people - one similarity to Indians being familiarity with English and Western business norms.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 17 Sep 2014 23:31

The US is ceding strategic space to China in the Taiwan business. Japan continues to be supportive of keeping Taiwan de facto independent, since it's not in Japan's interest to see Taiwan unified. That is also why China is very forceful about taking on Japan recently. Taiwan therefore does not know if anyone will strongly back it.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20292 » 17 Sep 2014 23:53

Suraj wrote:The US is ceding strategic space to China in the Taiwan business. Japan continues to be supportive of keeping Taiwan de facto independent, since it's not in Japan's interest to see Taiwan unified. That is also why China is very forceful about taking on Japan recently. Taiwan therefore does not know if anyone will strongly back it.


1. Taiwan , being as it may, fundamentally different from the PRC in terms of systems of govt. type of people (intelligentsia) and westernisnation, will NEVER want to reunite on the CPC's terms with the mainland.

2. Hence, Japan supporting or not, Taiwanese independence does not matter.

3. Sino Japanese enmity is because they have been bitter rivals for 1000+ years, and even though Japan has been smaller, it has defeated China devastatingly , many a times. It's not Taiwan issue based.

4. A similar, though lesser enmity exists with Vietnam. (The Vietnamese are plucky little fellows.)

5. what we are doing is right. we de facto ally with the usa, japan, vietnam, and australia.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 17 Sep 2014 23:58

mahadevbhu wrote:1. Taiwan , being as it may, fundamentally different from the PRC in terms of systems of govt. type of people (intelligentsia) and westernisnation, will NEVER want to reunite on the CPC's terms with the mainland.

We will have to agree to disagree on this. Vietnamese I agree would not countenance Chinese influence and would fight like hell. Taiwanese, I am not confident they have the same willingness to suffer beyond a point, if PRC starts a shooting war. This opinion is based on honest commentary from otherwise very pro-independence Taiwanese folks, who are pragmatic about the limits of their ability to hold out without firm outside backing, something we can provide through diplomatic normalization.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_23061 » 18 Sep 2014 00:00

Suraj wrote:Rather than being emotionally invested in Chinese incursions, it's more meaningful to see them as what they are - coldly calculated actions being used to check how much Modi's hardline rhetoric is backed by resolve to act. Handwringing does not serve a purpose. Wait to hear about what happened next, over there.


Do you think that Modi will actually toe a hardline on these incursions? My gut tells me yes but my mind thinks he would not want to due to economic reasons.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 18 Sep 2014 00:22

I think he will, because he has already given the Army greater space to act. He just won't do it in a showy public way, but just strongly enough for the Chinese to get the message on the ground.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Prem » 18 Sep 2014 01:35

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxwnq-nCAAAZR8J.jpg:large
Check the lions roaming around Modi, Xi and Hi wife.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_19686 » 18 Sep 2014 01:42

nageshks wrote:100 more Chinese Soldiers enter Chumar.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 735992.cms

Is it just me, or do the others think that the Chinese are going back to gunboat diplomacy of the late 1800s? This business of having soldiers cross borders and negotiating under the threat of force is something that should have gone out of fashion with WW1. And the Chinese habit of disregarding agreements once their interests are satisfied is something that makes them totally unreliable as allies. I wonder what kind of peace is even possible with China.

@Suraj,
Regarding the Taiwan card, are the Taiwanese even willing to play ball? Last I saw, they were themselves unsure what they wanted. Half of them are the `Blue Star on the Tiananmen' types, the other half are the `Declare Taiwanese independence from China' types. You never know which bunch happens to be on top. Given this situation, exactly what role do you see for India with the Taiwanese?

Not really "half", most Taiwanese are wary of PRC but considering their tiny size and lack of support from outside powers, most seek to maintain the status quo. Note the huge Sunflower protests recently led by the younger generation against the trade pact with PRC:



The recent crackdown's in Hong Kong have also strengthened the anti-PRC feeling. Do not confuse KMT being in power with "half" as Ma came to power based on economic issues and KMT is widely expected to lose the 2016 elections.

Japan has an interest in maintaining Taiwanese independence including the fact that the Taiwanese public tend to be the most pro-Japanese of any country. It is not unusual to find pro independence Taiwanese delegations visiting Yasukuni and the royal family like this:



Modi was in Taipei in late 90's and has always encouraged Taiwanese investment. When he was elected a Taiwanese official was critical of their gov't for not doing more to forge ties with India.

I think the defeat of KMT in the coming elections would help us move towards more pro active relations.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Vayutuvan » 18 Sep 2014 01:46

chanakya: Where are the photos taken? gAndhI ji's sAbarmati Ashram?

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 18 Sep 2014 02:07

nageshks wrote:@Suraj,
Regarding the Taiwan card, are the Taiwanese even willing to play ball? Last I saw, they were themselves unsure what they wanted. Half of them are the `Blue Star on the Tiananmen' types, the other half are the `Declare Taiwanese independence from China' types. You never know which bunch happens to be on top. Given this situation, exactly what role do you see for India with the Taiwanese?

Pan Blue vs Pan Green does not matter. Normalization with Taiwan is in our interest. The Pan Blue would see our backing as a positive support for the Republican position on one China (even if we have no intention of supporting them unify China in general) and therefore value our backing while serving as useful idiots. The Pan Green would see our support as a bonus in their push for greater independence. Either way, both sides would find it useful for their own reasons, and we can work with the compulsions of either side, if we choose to play ball. Choosing to keep hands off from that matter is just pusillanimity on our part.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 18 Sep 2014 03:33

Dean took the words out of my mouth! Inviting the Taiwanese premier would be a great act of Indian resolve. It could be done without any declaration about recognition,so that the Beijing ducks can do b*gger-all diplomatically.The US has a most intense relationship with Taipei and China too.India has neglected Taiwan for far too long.Apartf rom the diplomatic "stick",taiwan has huge reserves,is a global leader in semi-conductor tech/manufacture and trade between India and Taiwan cam truly explode with mutual benefits.Evn the export by India of some defence eqpt. would be a good signal to the ducks that China's unequivocal support for Pak is fraught with danger,as countermoves by India supporting China's enemies with mil-tech is an easy option.

Apart from defence wares,India should provide Vietnam with a nuclear reactor/s,in similar fashion to how China is helping Pak,so that Vietnam can develop its own N-tech capability and in the future develop its own N-deterrent if threatened by China.Japan can go nuclear very quickly if it wants and has huge amounts of fissile material available.

As far as Tibet is concerned,did anyone notice how Mr.Modi showed off Gujarat's Buddhist heritage to the visiting Chinese premier?! This is a deliberate none-too subtle reminder to our Chinese guest that India is also a Buddhist nation too,the fountainhead of Buddhism,spread all over the country over the last few thousands of years,which it exported to the entire world! Therefore,it is in India's supreme interests to protect Buddhism especially in Tibet ,as well as looking after the welfare of the Tibetan people wherever they may reside. Stapled visas.The compliment should be returned in full measure. Trade imbalance,heavy duties in PRC goods and a total ban on imports of fireworks (tantamount to smuggling in explosives),toxic toys,etc.,anything that destroys India's small-scale industries. When we have had Japan willing to invest in India's infrastructure,who needs China?

http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy ... n-sea-lane
September 15, 2014
China taking steady steps toward Indian Ocean sea lane
KATSUJI NAKAZAWA, Nikkei staff writer


BEIJING -- China is steadily advancing efforts to create a sea lane through the Indian Ocean by actively investing in port facilities of South Asian countries.

Under its "string of pearls" strategy, China wants to build a network of port and logistics facilities to transport natural resources from the Middle East and Africa without passing through the South China Sea.

President Xi Jinping is visiting Maldives from Sunday as part of his South Asian tour, marking the first trip to that country by a Chinese chief of state. In a statement to the media, Xi stressed Maldives' importance in not only economic relations but also the political arena, including regional security.

Maldives is a small island nation of just over 300,000. But its location, essential for creating the sea lane, explains China's laserlike focus. Its proximity to the U.S. military base on the island of Diego Garcia is also likely a factor.

Chinese have a strong presence in Maldives, accounting for nearly 30% of all foreign tourists there. Large residential buildings constructed by Chinese companies are called "Chinese castles," and Chinese workers abound in the country.

India, which also has strong ties with Maldives, is alarmed by China's aggressive approach to the country. The two will engage in a tug of war trying to get Maldives on board with their respective agendas.

China has invested in ports and logistics facilities of Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar as well.

In Sri Lanka, it has aided in the development of the Port of Hambantota, which is growing into one of South Asia's largest ports, and has also undertaken core construction in the expansion of the Port of Colombo. In Pakistan, it has built Gwadar Port in the south. And in Bangladesh, it has helped repair Chittagong Port.


When Xi visits Sri Lanka, the two countries are expected to agree on launching official talks toward a free trade agreement. China has replaced Japan as Sri Lanka's top aid provider.

India, the U.S. and Japan are all alarmed by the Chinese moves. India, suspecting China of trying to secure facilities for military ends, has devised a "necklace of diamonds" counterstrategy with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to create a separate sea lane.

Xi is also slated to visit India from Sept. 17, but the discussion will focus primarily on economic ties. The two countries have a long way to go in building trust with respect to regional security.

China is actively touting economic partnerships with South Asian countries, apparently to camouflage its military intentions.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby disha » 18 Sep 2014 07:19

Jhujar wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxwnq-nCAAAZR8J.jpg:large
Check the lions roaming around Modi, Xi and Hi wife.


Lioness with her cubs and Xi is clearly scared. Modi is not even bothered! And has got full attention of Mrs. Xi and the translator is wondering when to run and where to run.

This is a real bold move, imagine the sheer chutzpah of Modi to his team - hey let us show Xi the Lions of Gujarat ... in our garden ... from our backyard!

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby disha » 18 Sep 2014 07:21

matrimc wrote:chanakya: Where are the photos taken? gAndhI ji's sAbarmati Ashram?


Sabarmati river front.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UIFsKLilhg[/youtube]

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby menon s » 18 Sep 2014 08:08

Lioness with her cubs and Xi is clearly scared. Modi is not even bothered! And has got full attention of Mrs. Xi and the translator is wondering when to run and where to run.


those are clay models, pls hold your imagination.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20317 » 18 Sep 2014 09:22

Xi thinks he will fall off the khaat. He has seemed confused right from the start. Seems to be cursing his stars at having to travel all that far and having to set up a border clash for nothing.

Mrs. Xi is rather amused at how the two opponents are whiling their time away instead of managing two of the biggest countries in the universe. Women folk always know better in these parts of the world. Mrs. Xi knows the trade has nothing to do with these two guys except in the ontoward case where one of them decides to be JLN/Jahangir level dildaar. Not the case at all with any of them. And enmity too will far outlast both of them, something that is part and parcel of the geography. Khaat diplomacy at its best. Some babu thought he would hire some event manager and look smart. The event manager thought I will set up clay tigers around the khaat little knowing that Mrs. Xi probably cooks the tigers every saturday night, as part of the aphrodisiac diet for Mr. Xi.

NaMo is as sincere as he was when he wished Sonia ji the best sometime back. Its incredible how he can keep going at all this mehmaan nawazi. Last time Nawaz got the taste of his mehmaan nawazi and nearly lost his perch on his khaat.

Sab saale drama karte hain and Mrs. Xi is enjoying the latest show of Zangoora.

NaMo ji also seems bothered by the sheer height of the Khaat. Chapaan inch ka seena hai par oonchai to sirf SDRE hai. Who is the guy who made such a high khaat. Does he not know of the average heights in India and China. Only a full fandoo TFTA POTUS/POTUK can sit on so high a perch.
Last edited by member_20317 on 18 Sep 2014 09:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 18 Sep 2014 09:23

Chutzpah? 1000 Indian and Chinese troops face off in Ladakh while he visits India.The NSA is closely monitoring the situ.

This typical Chinese braggadacio,displayed many years ago when ABV was Foreign Min. and China invaded Vietnam during his visit.This is a test of PM Modi's resolve,putting India on the back foot during his visit.As wise men have said,do not believe what China says but what it actually does.

This the arrogant sh*tworm of Zhongnanhai trying to show who's the boss of Asia,spitting into Indian territory.If I was in Mr.Modi's place,I would give the visiting sh*tworm an ultimatum.Withdraw your troops or return to your dungheap.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby SSridhar » 18 Sep 2014 10:04

I feel that Xi Jinping is putting a gun to Modi's head by allowing a large-scale intrusion of the PLA, of which he is the Supreme Commander, while being in India on a state visit. Though such things have happened before (just before AK Antony's visit to China in 2012 or before Li Keqiang's visit in 2013), the scale, the seriousness and the audacity to do so while the Chinese President is on Indian soil sends a very strong message to India and the fledgeling alliance in the offing with a nervous and hesitant India not being sure of whether to join it or not. Xi may well push India into the alliance.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Suraj » 18 Sep 2014 10:14

I think this is fairly standard Chinese behavior. They want to test him. The Indian press does not help, with their standard victimhood line, that obscures what's actually happening.

Modi's body language in the videos conveys courtesy combined with complete lack of deference. The Chinese are big on atmospherics, and they probably hoped Modi would greet Xi at the tarmac at Ahmedabad. It's already 'unusual' for someone like Xi to land up in a 3rd rung city, and more so, to be greeted by the local CM, while Modi preferred to wait till Xi arrived at the Sabarmati Ashram. To my eye, that's very unusual and carries a message with it - make them go to Ahmedabad, and then go to the Ashram to finally be granted audience with Modi.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Shanmukh » 18 Sep 2014 10:32

Surasena wrote:Modi was in Taipei in late 90's and has always encouraged Taiwanese investment. When he was elected a Taiwanese official was critical of their gov't for not doing more to forge ties with India.

I think the defeat of KMT in the coming elections would help us move towards more pro active relations.


Thanks for that background and videos of inclinations of younger folk, Surasena-ji. I suspect my own views maybe a bit biased in favour of overestimating the `blue star on Tiananmen' types, considering that most of my Taiwanese colleagues here are of the type (older generation, whose ancestors migrated to Taiwan in 50s, with lots of nostalgia for republican China).

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Shanmukh » 18 Sep 2014 10:37

Suraj wrote:
nageshks wrote:@Suraj,
Regarding the Taiwan card, are the Taiwanese even willing to play ball? Last I saw, they were themselves unsure what they wanted. Half of them are the `Blue Star on the Tiananmen' types, the other half are the `Declare Taiwanese independence from China' types. You never know which bunch happens to be on top. Given this situation, exactly what role do you see for India with the Taiwanese?

Pan Blue vs Pan Green does not matter. Normalization with Taiwan is in our interest. The Pan Blue would see our backing as a positive support for the Republican position on one China (even if we have no intention of supporting them unify China in general) and therefore value our backing while serving as useful idiots. The Pan Green would see our support as a bonus in their push for greater independence. Either way, both sides would find it useful for their own reasons, and we can work with the compulsions of either side, if we choose to play ball. Choosing to keep hands off from that matter is just pusillanimity on our part.


Thanks, Suraj. I agree that we should engage with them, just for the commercial purposes, even if no great amount of military cooperation is possible for the moment.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Sri » 18 Sep 2014 11:22

disha wrote:
Jhujar wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxwnq-nCAAAZR8J.jpg:large
Check the lions roaming around Modi, Xi and Hi wife.


Lioness with her cubs and Xi is clearly scared. Modi is not even bothered! And has got full attention of Mrs. Xi and the translator is wondering when to run and where to run.

This is a real bold move, imagine the sheer chutzpah of Modi to his team - hey let us show Xi the Lions of Gujarat ... in our garden ... from our backyard!



Are they real lions? Man putting leaders of the world's 2 most populace countries in vicinity of Gir Lions seems very foolish from security POV.

Any way if they are indeed real lions then this moment will be embedded in President Xi's mind for years to come...

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 18 Sep 2014 11:37

Alternatively,he could just wait for the sh*tworm to leave and then act with strength on the border and economically stopping the import or levying heavy duties on all PRC goods.

With the Chinese ambitions for a "maritime highway" in the IOR,cleverly disguising its mil. ambitions under the guise of merchant shipping,plus now building the Maldives airport project after GMR was kicked out,is a direct slap in the face of the GOI. There is NO alternative now to massively beefing up the IN's numbers and capability.Apart from the sub arm,the Naval Fleet Air Arm should be increased substantially with more land based multi-role strike fighters that can also operate from carriers,plus more LRMP and maritime attack bombers like Backfires/Bears. Interdiction of Chinese merchant shipping ,both tankers and cargo vessels in the IOR has to be a major priority of IN if the balloon goes up in the future.China should be denied easy access to the IOR and we should fast track our capability in the Indo-China Sea.

China preparing for WW3?
People's Garbage:
the Chinese state-run People’s Daily, a dire warning is issued by PLA Professor Han Xudong, who states that China should prepare for a “third world war,” which would stem from the conflict between the United States and Russia over Ukraine.

Via InfoWars:
As the Ukrainian crisis deepens, international observers have become more and more concerned about a direct military clash between the US and Russia. Once an armed rivalry erupts, it is likely to extend to the globe. And it is not impossible that a world war could break out,” writes Xudong, noting that “the world has entered an era of new forms of global war” based around the Internet and the concept of sea power.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Rahul Mehta » 18 Sep 2014 12:03

Jhujar : https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxwnq-nCAAAZR8J.jpg . Check the lions roaming around Modi, Xi and Hi wife.

Disha: Lioness with her cubs and Xi is clearly scared. Modi is not even bothered! And has got full attention of Mrs. Xi and the translator is wondering when to run and where to run. This is a real bold move, imagine the sheer chutzpah of Modi to his team - hey let us show Xi the Lions of Gujarat ... in our garden ... from our backyard!

menon s: those are clay models, pls hold your imagination.


OMG. I was going to say same thing, that Lioness and cub appear to be plastic.

====

Consider a goonda asking an owner sell his prime real estate. The goonda is offering cash. And may be, cash is no less than market value and cash is also more than what other buyers are offering. But his message is --- sell or else ..... . Its basically goonda with cash, smile and a gun.

Learned people call it gunboat diplomacy. Rustics like myself call it a goonda with cash, gun and a smile.

The Chinese are threatening us to handover portions of economy, and threatening us in public in most rude and most "transparent" way.

USA has been threatening us since 1990s. eg In 1990s, when we refused to open insurance sector and did Pkharan-2 against their wish, USA paid Pak to do Kargil on us. But at least, USA did it by proxy and not directly. China is doing directly and in public.

And years of neglect on legislative front by Congress leaders, BJP leaders including NaMo, AAP leaders, CPM leaders etc has made our weapon manufacturing so weak that we cant do much as of now.

If we handover tons of economy to Chinese, then Chinese will withdraw soldiers and let us save our face. Thats like goonda agreeing to pay registration fees after owner agrees to sell, and that goonda also letting the owner keep furniture after the owner sells his home. But the fact that owner had to sell the house showed who is the boss.

There is no point in further analysis. Solution is that we start massive local non-FDI weapon manufacturing. How? OSF.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby James B » 18 Sep 2014 13:08

Modi sent his own 2 messages to Xi. 1) Allowing Tibetan protests at Hyderabad house where Xi-Modi meeting taking place. 2) Dalai Lama speaking about Indo-China relations and telling Xi to learn about diversity from India while Modi-Xi meeting was taking place.

And finally, India has pushed the Chinese back by 2kms and also sent more forces to Damchuk.

So, not everything is one sided. Its a game both can play.


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