Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby rsingh » 22 Sep 2014 23:34

any cross check. Jat ko gussa a gaya hei. IMO Gen Sehwag might be thinking " bhad me jai Bhutan …….pahle in chipkaliyon se nibte hei ……….haramiyon ko thodi ijaat de di tou apne app ko insan samzhne lage."

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2014 00:25

From C Uday Bhaskar garu

http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=9044

From Xi to Obama: Challenges for Modi


Posted:Sep 21, 2014


By C Uday Bhaskar



From the just-concluded visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will soon embark for the USA where, apart from his maiden address to the UN General Assembly, the focus will be on his first meeting with US President Barack Obama.


While the more visible part of the Modi visit will no doubt be the public interaction with the Indian diaspora in New York where more than 20,000 participants are expected, the more substantive part will be in Washington DC.


The abiding strategic challenge for Prime Minister Modi, as it was for his predecessor Manmohan Singh, will be to find the right balance in India’s triangular relationship with the US on one hand and China on the other. The emerging global macro-economic configuration over the next two decades points to a triangular arrangement with China overtaking the US to be the world’s largest GDP by about 2025. While the US will still be a close second, the third spot will be that of India’s which is projected to be a distant third.


The anomalous situation that will obtain is that while China will be the world’s most prosperous nation in overall terms (and not per capita), the US will still be the most powerful military nation and symbolizes the democratic constituency in global affairs. Latent China-US contestation is inherent in such a configuration, and the challenge for India will be to find the space and leverages to both protect and advance its core national interests in a complex major power framework and an increasingly globalized world order.

The Xi visit to India was rich in optics and, from the Ahmedabad visit and the homage to Mahatma Gandhi at the ashram, the symbolism for a potentially cooperative relationship was contained in the Modi formulation of “INCH to MILES”. On the eve of the Xi visit, the Indian prime minister asserted that from being just “India-China”, the relationship would now become the “Millennium of Exceptional Synergy”.

However, the mismatch between this highly desirable objective to that which is in the realm of the feasible was more than apparent by the time President Xi arrived in Delhi. India-China relations have been enveloped in a great degree of mistrust and opacity over a range of tangled security and strategic differences and none more sensitive than the disputed territorial and border issue that saw the two Asian giants engage in brief border war in October 1962.

Intriguingly, the Xi visit in Delhi began with reports of an incursion by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Chumar sector of Ladakh and this cast a shadow over the symbolism of MILES. Various interpretations are being offered about why the PLA chose to act in this manner during a high-level political visit, and it may be recalled that in April 2013 ahead of Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s visit to India there was a similar standoff. At the time Delhi stood its ground and indicated that the Li visit would have to be rescheduled if the PLA troops did not withdraw, and finally an uneasy modus vivendi was arrived at.

This time around there is considerable speculation as to whether President Xi was in the decision making loop about this Chinese PLA incursion or not. As in the past, there is unwavering opacity about who in Beijing had authorized this PLA initiative, and this will be one more incident in the uneasy Sino-Indian relationship. What is more germane are the consequences of the fallout of the Xi visit to India against this backdrop.

It may be summarized that the first Modi-Xi summit has delivered below the median on substantive issues, and while the two leaders may have established a comfortable personal equation, they are visibly constrained by the weight of their respective historical narratives and inheritance.

But one fact emerges from the Xi visit. The complex territorial and border dispute that till now was cloaked in expansive statements and generalities has now acquired a prominent status in the political dialogue between the two nations. The joint statement issued after the Xi visit made the mandatory reference and observed: “Pending a final resolution of the boundary question, the two sides would continue to make joint efforts to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas.” And yet both sides continue to maintain troop levels in the Chumar sector and the unease prevails.

For Prime Minister Modi having now met with his Japanese counterpart in Tokyo and the Chinese president in Delhi, the next critical meeting is with US President Obama. From a phase of deep estrangement, the major punctuation in the bilateral relationship with the US is the Bush-Manmohan Singh nuclear rapprochement that was concluded in late 2008. However, the last six years have been relatively static due to the domestic political compulsions on both sides – first for Singh and now for President Obama.

The Modi challenge will be to infuse traction and directivity to the moribund India-US relationship, and some indicators are stark. The US is itself beleaguered economically and will not be able to offer any significant investment in the manner that Japan ($35 billion) and to an extent China ($20bn) have promised. Neither is any kind of formal military alliance an option for India – notwithstanding the anxieties generated by Beijing’s military assertiveness.

For India the path is clear: To determinedly enhance its economic, technological and military capabilities across the board and arrive at some degree of mutuality with China in terms of comprehensive national power. The visit of US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel offered a menu of options for India to address its many military inventory and defence production gaps. Hopefully, Prime Minister Modi will be able to resurrect some of the possibilities that had been identified in the Rumsfeld-Mukherjee agreement of June 2005 in his meeting with President Obama. :rotfl: As the last decade has demonstrated, an empathetic Delhi-Washington relationship makes Beijing more malleable when it deals with Delhi.

This is the strategic equipoise that the Modi visit must realize in the long run and, summit level political dialogue apart, the Indian diaspora remains an untapped gene pool of human resource and valuable expertise.

(Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar (Retd), is Director of the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at cudaybhaskar@spsindia.in)


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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 23 Sep 2014 02:12

I anticipate another major Chinese orchestrated event in the border areas when PM Modi visits Washington.This will be another "lesson" from that drunken lout,Prof.XI Gin pegs to the Indian leadership.Gin's warning and talk of a "regional war" must be taken with the greatest seriousness.

In the last post by CUB,the US is currently enmeshed in a series of international crises and domestic concerns,and no great stroking of India can be expected from it.The country right now which is looking for its old friends to stand by it is Russia,which has had sanctions slapped on it for the Ukrainian crisis,not of its making,but crucial to its security.Russia is helping countries also besieged like Syria,with arms and diplomatic support.Pres. Putin is visiting Indian in Dec. I would suggest that PM Modi sends the NSA or a senior minister/beaureaucrat to Moscow simultaneously or just after the US trip,and enlighten the Russians on developments on the border and India's need for military and diplomatic support in case the sh*t hits the fan.If a war does break out,mil. supplies of munitions,weaponry and spares will be crucial and as a large part of our inventory is of Russian origin,we should start stockpiling them right now.The Chinese will try to exploit the current window of opportunity that exists right now before we close gaps in our defence preparedness.

Similar envoys can enlighten other world leaders.
Mrs. Gandhi did the same decades ago when we were facing a similar crisis with Pak in '71.This will give Mr.Modi a clear picture of the support that India will/will not get if it has to face off with China in any "regional war",which as I said earlier is not a case of "if" but "when". Did not many of us predict that something like this would happen,Sino-Paki mischief if Mr.Modi was elected ,to tarnish his reputation as a strong leader? The Chinese,especially XI Gins are stuck in the '62 mindset thinking that India is a pushover for them.As was famously said,"the Chinese will keep pushing and pushing until they meet steel."

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2014 02:55

Philip regardless of who supports or wont support India, India has to give bloody nose to the Chinese if opportunity presents itself. However I don't expect an incident while NaMo is in US for that will drive the very response PRC wants to avoid.
If it happens then Xi is losing.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Prem » 23 Sep 2014 04:56

I think China realize now that they will be isolated in Asia with only NOKO as their water carrier and Paki as their Groom of The Stool Royal Mush Washer. With whom are they going to fight the Regional war, India,Japan, Vietnam,Philippine , Indonesia or Malaysia ? They cant become real Dragon unless they eat their ego serpent, which they wont.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby SwamyG » 23 Sep 2014 06:06

Russia has not stood with India all the time. There was a article, how even recently it took India for a ride when it came to servicing ships. The only reason it kind of supported India was because of Cold War. Love can be manufactured when there is a need. Russia or USA/UK (the West) are not any Saints; and none of them is better than the other when it comes to relations with India. One keep hearing about problems in building Hindu temples in Russia. So take all these big countries with a truck load of salt, and there is no necessity to send emissaries or run crying to Russia or others.

More than India, China cannot afford a DIRECT war with India. It will impact its economy, and it is not going to take a hit because of a few thousand hectares of land. It cannot digest India, so it can only steal from India in bits and pieces. And that is best achieved by bullying and working slowly without upsetting the West.

DIRECT war will open more can of worms. Tibet can be bought to the table.
Last edited by SwamyG on 23 Sep 2014 06:31, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Yagnasri » 23 Sep 2014 06:20

We are all alone, all the time. We have to realise that at least now. Depending on someone else for our security is sure shot to hell.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_23692 » 23 Sep 2014 07:23

Yagnasri wrote:We are all alone, all the time. We have to realise that at least now. Depending on someone else for our security is sure shot to hell.


And pray tell, how we can deal with China today, militarily, on our own, without depending on someone else's assistance ? I am not talking about years down the road. I am talking about today, if the Chinese dont relent and we have to escalate ?

Yeah, yeah, the Chinese will never escalate, right ? So, we dont have to worry about that.

But just in case, just humor me, just in case, they do, then what ? (In my mind what they have been doing already and what they have done already is escalation and provocation enough). You are not thinking of "tactical withdrawl" and calling it victory, as your solution, are you ?

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 23 Sep 2014 08:28

Ramanna,I agree with the blooding of the nose.However,the wherewithal to pig stick the Chinese has to be assured of/acquired,especially if the sparring lasts for much longer than anticipated.China which has no domestic audience to stroke-and in any case when it comes to foreigners and Indians the Chinese are utterly racist,would play to their strengths of superior numbers and tactical advantage on the ground.

When we bloody the nose,we must make the required preparations ,esp. logistic support for a long war,before opening fire.Mr.Modi needs at this moment service chiefs with the wisdom of a Sam Manekshaw coupled with the genius of a Sunderji.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Kashi » 23 Sep 2014 08:33

rsangram wrote:And pray tell, how we can deal with China today, militarily, on our own, without depending on someone else's assistance ? I am not talking about years down the road. I am talking about today, if the Chinese dont relent and we have to escalate ?

Yeah, yeah, the Chinese will never escalate, right ? So, we dont have to worry about that.

But just in case, just humor me, just in case, they do, then what ? (In my mind what they have been doing already and what they have done already is escalation and provocation enough). You are not thinking of "tactical withdrawl" and calling it victory, as your solution, are you ?


So please enlighten us as to who will come to our help? Can you name one country which will stand by us if a conflict with China breaks out today?

So humour me, if Chinese do escalate, and as per you we cannot deal with them without military assistance form elsewhere and as per common sense, no one else is going to come to our aid, what should be the course of action?

Perhaps we could try humouring the Chinese and call it "tactical" victory.

Yagnasri

Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Yagnasri » 23 Sep 2014 09:05

Chinese will push as hard as possible without actually trying to go to war. We have done nothing after 26/11 to pakiland and sent a loud message to the whole world that we can be pushed around. China is testing our resolve for a long time. MMS did nothing and allowed them to do what every they want to do. Now NM's GOI shall stand firm at every instance of mischief by China. When they see we are not a pushover anymore, the mischief will stop - temporarily. After sometime they will start again all over.

Always testing waters seems to be China policy. The main reason for not settling the boundary issue is also keep the pot boiling. We need to start improve our capabilities and be ready for any war at short notice. Preparedness and resolve will deter war and weakness invites aggression.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby habal » 23 Sep 2014 09:25

Fact is Chinese military made Xi look like a clown while in India, here was their 'Chairman' holding hands and trying to make friends and then there were these jokers who were trying to provoke a conflict with India on the border. What can be a bigger humiliation for Xi, I am sure that Xi didn't ask these cretins to jump up and down at the border. It seems only that there are US-pasand Generals in this PLA and this is a compromised organization. Under guise of not receiving communication, they have played their hand and Xi had to take charge of the situation.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Vriksh » 23 Sep 2014 11:08

2 days ago I had posted this in Indian interests thread.

Infact after Modi's election I was predicting that the G2 (USA+China) will orchestrate a war on India and I was not wrong. We just have to grid our loins and see this through. If we engineer a stalemate militarily and yet manage economic revival I predict that global leadership structures will change drastically. India has come together now.

In a way I am happy that this is time for nation building and we will see if our civilizational temperament can hold strong. I am of course quite unhappy at the Chinese leadership which chose to follow the G2 plan which has been in the works for near 15 years now. Tibet should have been a place of cooperation and would have lead to great prosperity to Asia.

It is indeed obvious that the Chinese and USA are playing a grand game in concert for their own benefit and there is a consistent plan to polarize the world into 2 camps (Yin and Yang). India, Russia, Brazil, EU, Africa, ME and others don't have an independent role in this new world.

What steps can be taken to protect India's core civilizational interests from now on?
War on multiple fronts are going to be opened using key weakness on the Indian civilizational fabric: They are going to exploit religious, financial, regulatory, military schisms.

India faces a challenging time.

I note similarities in action between the PRC establishment = Pakistani Establishment : CCP+PLA the civilian CCP = Amalgamation of Political parties of Pakistan and the PLA = Pakistani Army. The behavior of these establishment is similar. When the civilian leadership of Pakistan or China heads to India correspondingly the military establishment needles India whether by beheadings or via invasions. Fundamentally even the USA behaves the same way with India. Standard googd cop bad cop routine.

Also It is becoming increasingly obvious that there is a broad convergence of USA China elite interests (G2) on strategic matters as evidenced from say Alibaba IPO, missile sales to KSA or broad cold shoulder responses to India, Russia etc. The game seems to be push nations to G2 poles, whether it is pushing Russia into the arms of China or pushing India to the arms of USA. India, Europe, Japan, Russia, are all pieces on a game board more or less controlled by USA and China.

One more pole of the Islamic Caliphate that is fundamentally against the liberal live and let live ideals espoused by India seems to growing but may not possess the sophistication or resources of the G2 and is still controlled by the USA but is struggling to shake free its yokes and do its own thing. Both ways it is not going to be conducive to Indian civilizational thought.

The global financial, political and military system is being engineered by the G2 and appears similar to a neo colonial movement to divide up the planet into nice spheres of influence.

War will be imposed on India very soon. I predict that we can do nothing but allow early success to a possible Chinese invasion of Ladakh supported by a Pakistan army interdiction of supply lines to the north adding to the fact that the recent flood have washed away supply paths. A protracted guerilla war all along India's borders will have to be fought to nullify Chinese superiority. We have to learn from the Taliban on their tactics.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby chaanakya » 23 Sep 2014 11:53

What we are missing here is that with all this orchestration of events vis a vis China, Focus of Indian Military capability is shifted to China First Policy. Bakis are being relegated to second rung enemy which don't stand much chance if conflict breaks out. Armed Forces of India will have to prepare for multi front war with China as its main focus. That is why focus of India is to build quality infra in the border regions along Tibet and that takes time. Also build up of new divisions takes time even though it is sanctioned. So India has to deny justification to Pak and play containment strategy till its build up reaches threshold level whence it can sit down with China and stare at it. This would lead to deny justification to Pak to continue its own build up with Unkil to financially support it. And they know if they spend from their pockets to continue their build up they are going to be decimated economically.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Shreeman » 23 Sep 2014 13:20

^^^^^^^ posts:

1. No one made anyone look foolish. PLA included. Everything scripted. No loose canons yet.
2. No war on the horizon. Encroachment only. War with Japan before India.
3. Trade deficit worsens, but infrastructure will improve. Not shabby if it happensd.
4. No hindi chini bhai bhai.

All in all business as usual.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20292 » 23 Sep 2014 13:33

One data point here.

One of my closest friends is a Chinese guy, who is a professor in China now. We discuss strategic issues from time to time, on very pleasant terms.

The only time, when he was visibly shaken in these discussions, was when I told him that India was in discussions with the department of defense to buy the F 35.

He was shaken that India would be joining Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan in having American supply chains of weapons.

This is what we should do more. Hook into the American supply chain. This will make an impression in China, much more so than moving 1500 troops to DBO or some such.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Karan M » 23 Sep 2014 14:07

Is shaking the Chinese what we are after or developing our own strength as versus depending on other "big daddies".. one step away is then deciding big daddy has big nukes, big missiles and hence we don't need to do the heavy lifting there as well.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20292 » 23 Sep 2014 14:46

Or we take the help of the big daddy's umbrella while we create our own.

In fact, we have had quite a big daddy in the FSU and Russia for a long time.

Wasn't dual sourcing a term that you have used at times for your posts on radars?

We can do that here too.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby habal » 23 Sep 2014 15:18

mahadevbhu wrote:One data point here.

One of my closest friends is a Chinese guy, who is a professor in China now. We discuss strategic issues from time to time, on very pleasant terms.

The only time, when he was visibly shaken in these discussions, was when I told him that India was in discussions with the department of defense to buy the F 35.

He was shaken that India would be joining Taiwan, S. Korea and Japan in having American supply chains of weapons.

This is what we should do more. Hook into the American supply chain. This will make an impression in China, much more so than moving 1500 troops to DBO or some such.


India has never fallen for this bait. Chinese need to learn to shake at LCA/Su-35/rafool rather than only shake at expensive imported showpiece gadgets. Letting a third country profit from shaking chinese is age-old trap that India has refused to fall into.

India's relation with USA is all make-believe wherein either party strives to make the other believe in some sham or some scam of the day/month/year. This game will continue.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 23 Sep 2014 18:43

This has been a great disappointment.I hoped when O'Bumbler took over as US pres.,that a new era in US diplomacy and attitude towards nations like India would emerge.It was a foolish dream.It has been business as usual,"all about oil".The control of the world's energy was,is and will be the prime factor in global strat. affairs for the better part of this century.

If you look at the map of conflicts,pipeline routes and oil production regions,platforms,etc.,you will fins them at the root of intense rivalry by the world's 3 great beasts.The Yanqui eagle,Russian bear and Chinese dragon.The Indian elephant is chewing on fruit watching peacefully from the sidelines,blissfully unaware that the jungle is being divided into territories under control of the 3 beasts and we will have to pay tribute to them in some form for our own energy supplies,as the majority of the world's energy supplies wherever they might be,are dominated by western oil cos.

China is resolving the "Malacca dilemma" by huge energy deals with Russia and Kazakhastan.It realises that the USN and its allies and even an independent India,can play havoc with its oil supplies from the Gulf,why it also wants a route to the Gulf through Pak and Iran.Hence the huge infrastructure dev, in POK and intrusions into Ladakh.Russia too can turn off the tap if it so desires if China behaves against Russian interests,and Putin is not a man to be taken lightly as we're seeing right now.

Chinese tanker traffic,trade and merchant shipping is still vulnerable transiting the IOR as it will take some years before the oil and gas starts flowing eastwards in large qty. from Russia and the CIS EurAsian states.The GOI should beef up the IN on a war footing for it to be able to support the IA on the ground with exterminating with extreme prejudice the IOR of any Chinese flagged vessel above or below water.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_23692 » 24 Sep 2014 04:31

Kashi wrote:
rsangram wrote:And pray tell, how we can deal with China today, militarily, on our own, without depending on someone else's assistance ? I am not talking about years down the road. I am talking about today, if the Chinese dont relent and we have to escalate ?

Yeah, yeah, the Chinese will never escalate, right ? So, we dont have to worry about that.

But just in case, just humor me, just in case, they do, then what ? (In my mind what they have been doing already and what they have done already is escalation and provocation enough). You are not thinking of "tactical withdrawl" and calling it victory, as your solution, are you ?


So please enlighten us as to who will come to our help? Can you name one country which will stand by us if a conflict with China breaks out today?

So humour me, if Chinese do escalate, and as per you we cannot deal with them without military assistance form elsewhere and as per common sense, no one else is going to come to our aid, what should be the course of action?

Perhaps we could try humouring the Chinese and call it "tactical" victory.


Kashi Master,

As I see it, if China decides to escalate, as it already has done, we have the following choices.

1. We back off, and allow them to steal even more of our land, as a continuation of their stealing our land for the past 50 years. We can give it a nice veneer Indian style, couch it in glory, sign a "face saving" agreement with the Chinese, hide the actual facts from the general public in India, declare victory, and end it all with Modi and Xi sitting on a Jhula swing together.

OR

2. We go with a begging bowl to all the capitals, who will have us at this point, particularly Moscow and Washington (the only realistic possibilities), barter away some of our self respect and self interests vis-a-vis either Moscow or Washington and have them bail us out. This is what we did in 1962, where Nehru, with all his anti-West and socialist rhetoric, went begging to Kennedy. I doubt, though, this time if Washington will have the appetite to completely bail us out. The best they can probably do is again, provide a "face saving" veneer for us Indians, while leaving some of the territory still in Chinese hands. I dont have much hopes from Putin and Moscow whatsoever.

Take your pick. There is no third option. If you think India can push the Chinese back all on its own, you are pipe dreaming.

For the future though, instead of being jingoistic and reflexively anti-Western, we may attempt to build some alliances, well in advance of such escalations by the Chinese or Islamists, with the West (who are the only likely people who will even talk to us and entertain an alliance, as the Russians are now deeply in the Chinese corner and need the Chinese badly), based on some semblance of self interest and self respect. We cant expect to come out of this with all our territory, all our self respect and all our self interest intact, as 60 years of bad policies will have consequences. You cannot keep on behaving badly and suicidally for 60 years and not have any consequences.

This loss of land to the Chinese, among other humiliations, are just some of the consequences of us Indians behaving like idiots, not just idiots, but suicidal idiots, over the past 60 years. There is a lot more to come, if we dont reverse course as a nation and as a people.

The chickens, as they say, Kashi master, are coming home to roost. In fact, the chickens have been coming home to roost for a long time, for us Indians. Only now, it is there for all to see.
Last edited by SSridhar on 24 Sep 2014 07:54, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: rsangram, tone down the rhetoric and patronizing attitude.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Prem » 24 Sep 2014 05:07

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/asi ... 338?page=3
[/b]Asia's "Cold Peace": China and India's Delicate Diplomatic Dance[/b]

But if there was any convergence of Chinese and Indian interests here, it was left publicly unsaid by the leaders. Little wonder, perhaps: for en route to India, Xi stopped by Sri Lanka and the Maldives, where China has outflanked India as a preferred investor in ports and airport facilities. Indian awareness of a military dimension to China’s long-term role in the Indian Ocean is no longer the stuff of “string of pearls” theories of a decade back. Evidence is mounting of China’s growing abilities and willingness to project military assets into these far seas, from submarine patrols, to surface taskforces, to counterpiracy, search-and-rescue and evacuation missions. India will need to find a way of working out which Chinese activities in its namesake ocean are legitimate—given China’s far-flung interests as a trading nation—and which warrant vigilance. In particular, India and others will need to be prepared for the moment when China starts making regular military use of civilian facilities along the maritime silk road, because it will quite naturally arrive.For its part, China will need to accept that India likewise has a legitimate stake and role in the Pacific. Discouraging its partnerships with Japan, Vietnam or others will likely deepen them, unless China has game-changing reassurance to offer India that make them less necessary. If the recent announcement of up to $30 billion of Chinese investment in India was aimed at neutralizing Japanese inroads, it would have helped Beijing’s case it its officials had not earlier bragged about a figure three times as large.
It’s easy to call the Indian-Chinese relationship a rivalry, only it isn’t, not yet at least. These powers have not concentrated their efforts on a full-blown contest with one another. This is a deeply asymmetric relationship. India’s economy and military strength is a fraction of China’s, and the best India can hope for in strategic terms is a combination of resilience and deterrence: to protect its sovereignty and its interests from influence or potential coercion from its stronger neighbor. This helps explain both why India has a nuclear weapons program, and why it is not prosecuting it as if it were, yet, in an arms race. It also explains why India is increasingly interested in partnerships with regional middle powers, as well as with the United States.he Indian-Chinese relationship can best be characterized as competitive coexistence or, as one expert has nicely put it, a cold peace, in which case things just got somewhat less cold, but also a little less peaceful. Whether competition or the coexistence comes to the fore—or indeed whether the relationship drifts towards conflict or evolves into genuine cooperation—will depend on the choices taken in both capitals in the years ahead. A generous appraisal of Xi and Modi would suggest they are like-minded technocrats, rightly impatient to strengthen their economies and societies. Mountainside military maneuvers will only keep them from that lofty goal.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby khan » 24 Sep 2014 06:50

rsangram wrote:Take your pick. There is no third option. If you think India can push the Chinese back all on its own, you are pipe dreaming.


Excellent post.

I would like to add that if China went to war with India, defeating India would not be cheap. Post one child policy, Chinese troops aren't cannon fodder anymore. They will be loose a lot of their prized son's on Indian soil and the ever paranoid Communists might not want to unnecessarily rock the boat. Also, logistics be damned, the fundamental geography of the place gives India a huge advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if a few hundred Prithvi's and Agni's with sub-meter accuracy are waiting for the order to take out some of those expensive bridges -- and there isn't much the Chinese can do about it.

That said, your point is correct. If India provokes the Chinese to the point where they make it a national priority to get a surrender, they can do it - but it will not be cheap.

India needs to walk a fine line between being assertive but not provoking the Chinese too much.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby habal » 24 Sep 2014 07:53

It is there in Kalki Puraan that China & maybe even USA (gog+magog) combined army will be defeated eventually. They may win a battle here or there, but eventually defeated by forces of dharma. Unlike what the commons think, and ridicule these kind of memes, leaders and important leaders at that tend to take these kind of things seriously.

Maybe the 'ghabrahat' is also due to these narratives.

If we take adequate preparations, then casualties on our side can be minimized, that is the extent of what India can do here. Also do note that China always serve up a Jin somewhere in the name since Hu Jin Tao took over. Now Xi Jinping.

“ He (Jin) took up various types of arms and started war with Kalki. Even the devas were surprised by the techniques of war adopted by Jin. Jin injured Kalki's horse with a javelin and made him disoriented and unconscious and attempted to take him away, but could not lift him...On seeing that, King Vishakhjupa got angry and encountered Jin and picked up unconscious Kalki in his own chariot. Kalki regained his consciousness in a while and encouraged his soldiers; following that, he rushed towards Jin after getting down from the chariot of Vishakhjupa. “

~ Kalki Puran, II[7], Verses 5, 6, 8, 9

“ Soon, Garga (associate of Lord Kalki) and his army killed 6000 Buddhist soldiers. Bharga and his soldiers killed and injured 11 million enemy soldiers and his mighty allies killed 2500 of them. Kobi along with his sons killed 2 million enemy soldiers, Pragya killed 1 million and Sumantu killed 5 million soldiers. “

~ Kalki Puran, II[7], Verses 5, 6, 8, 9

[It seems that Lord Kalki and his allies kill or injure an army which is almost 20 million strong. An army of this huge proportions can only be assembled by a country like China and its allies. Thus, the attack on the city of Kikatpur does not merely represent an attack on a city but on a country, probably in alliance with others.]

“ Soon Kalki smiled and said unto Jin - O Sinner ! Don't flee but come and face me...Soon your body will be pierced with my arrows. Soon you shall depart from this world. Then, no one will go along with you. So, you and your allies surrender before me. On hearing the words of Kalki, mighty Jin said "The fate can never be seen. I am a materialist, Buddhist. Nothing but the perceptible are accepted by us. The unseen and the imperceptible are banished by us. Hence your effort is fruitless. Even if you are Godly, I am before you; see if you manage to kill me. In that event, will the Buddhists forgive you? “

~ Kalki Puran, II[7], Verses 15 to 18


“ The wives of the Buddhists, gathered for battle riding on chariots, birds, horses, camels and bulls to defend their husbands. These beautiful, powerful young ladies devoted to their husbands did not seek the shelter of their children. These glorious women, dressed in battle-gear and various jewellery came to the battlefield armed with swords, power-weapons, arrows and javelins. In their hands were heavenly rings. These beautiful women consisted of hair dressers, women devoted to husbands (house-wives) and even prostitutes. These women, troubled by the death of their husbands and fathers came forth to fight the army of Kalki. People even care to protect objects like soil, ashes, wood etc. Therefore, how can these women tolerate the death of their husbands in their presence? The womenfolk of the Buddhists, seeing their husbands injured and troubled came in front of them and started to fight the soldiers of Kalki. Seeing the women take to battle, the soldiers of Kalki were amazed and came to Kalki to inform him about the whole matter in details. Hearing this, Kalki, clever as he is, arrived there on a chariot accompanied by his allies and army with a cheerful mind. Seeing the women astride in various types of vehicles, standing in formations, Kalki started saying "Ladies, please hear what I have to say. It is against the principles for men to fight against women..."

~ Kalki Puran, III[1], Verses 11 to 20

“...On your beautiful moon-like face, falls the locks of fine hair. Everyone's mind become cheerful on seeing this. Which man can hit on such a face? On these beautiful faces are a pair of eyes like lotus with long eyelashes and dark pupil. Which man can hit such a face? Your breasts are decorated like the necklace of Shiva. Even the pride of the cupid gets hurt on seeing this. Which man can hit on such a place? Which man can hit the spotless face of a woman on which play the locks of fine hairs from the head? Which man can hit your slim waists weighed down by breasts and decorated by very fine body-hair? Can any man shoot an arrow in your eye-soothing and feminine pubic area covered by fine hair and untouched by sin? Hearing these words of Kalki, the infidel-women smiled and said - "Sir ! When our husbands died in your hand, we too have died". Saying this, the women prepared to kill Kalki. ”

~ Kalki Puran, III[1], Verses 21 to 27

[All such attempts by Lord Kalki cut no ice with the women. At this point of time however, a miracle happened which persuaded the women from fighting Lord Kalki ]

“...However the weapons remained in their hands. The various weapons metamorphosed and stood before the infidel-women decorated in gold and said "Ladies! Do ye know Kalki as the Supreme God, empowered by whom we take the lives of living beings. Have confidence in our words. On His command we propagate and on his glory we have attained various forms and by His mercy we have become renowned. By His empowerment does the five elements carry out their own actions. He is the Supreme Being Himself. Under His wishes has the nature created the whole Universe. The creation and the continuity of the creation is nothing but His action. He is the Beginning and the End, from Him arise all the holy things in the world. It is He, who is our husband, our wife, son, friend and relative. From Him comes forth all these illusion-like happenings. Those who know that life and death are nothing but coming and going under the influence of love, affection and fondness, those who are devoid of any feelings of anger and hate, who are the devotees of Kalki, they know the above illusion-like happenings as false. How was Time created? Where does death come from? Who is Yama ? Who are the Gods? By His illusion, it is Kalki who has become many. O Ladies! We are not weapons and no one gets hurt by us. He is the weapon and it is he who hits. These distinctions are nothing but the Maya created by the Supreme Being. ...We cannot hit the devotees of Kalki. Hearing the words of the weapons, the women were surprised. They shed their illusion of attachment and came to seek Kalki. “

~ Kalki Puran, III[1], Verses 27 to 39

“ Dharma(personified) said to Kalki "Right now, infidels like Saka, Kamboja, Sabara etc. are under the control of Kali and that mighty Kali has defeated me taking advantage of the influence of the time. The pious men are being tortured and consigned to the flames. That's why I have come for your protection. “

~ Kalki Puran, III[6], Verse 22

“ Thus, Kalki, surrounded by his allies set out for the desired place for conquering the infidels like Khasha, Kamboja, Sabara, Barbarians etc. ... The people who lived there carry out the orders of women. Hearing that Kalki has come for battle, the angry Kali, along with his allies, sons and grandsons came riding on a chariot out of the city of Bishasan. On seeing Kali, Kalki ordered his followers to engage in battle with him. “

~ Kalki Puran, III[6], Verses 32, 33, 35, 36

“ Lord Kalki, along with his soldiers armed with various types of weapons engaged in war with Kok and Bikok. These two brothers are supreme demons, great fanatics and adept in the art of war. These brothers are intimately connected, powerful, hard to defeat and are even feared by the Devas. “

~ Kalki Puran, III[6], Verses 43 & 44

[The surprise elements here are the description of the war with brothers called "Kok and Bikok", who are allied with Kali.These are surely Gog and Magog described in the Biblical book of Revelations.]

“ Soon they entered the city of Bishasan, the capital of Kali(Kali age personified), and burnt down the city using fiery missile. Along with the city, Kali too was burnt and his sons and relatives were destroyed. “

~ Kalki Puran, III[7], Verses 9 & 10

“ Thus, after attaining victory, Kalki started for the city of Vallat ruled by the Sashyakarns along with his soldiers and allies. III[7], 35. His (the King of Vallat) name is Sashidhwaj. He is intelligent, handsome, tall, brave and has a huge military. III[8], 3. King Sashidhwaj arrived at the battlefield and dispersed the powerful soldiers of Kalki. III[8], 18. ...Thus, King Sashidhwaj managed to defeat Kalki, capture him and some of his allies and went back to his palace.

~ Kalki Puran III[8], 18. “

[The battle of Vallat is the most terrible battle fought by Lord Kalki so far. In this battle, Lord Kalki was defeated and captured in the war and taken prisoner by the King Sashidhwaj of Vallat. However, it is mentioned that the King was aware of the divine nature of Lord Kalki and it has been said that even after capturing him, the king showed him utmost respect and entered in a peace treaty with him, offering his own daughter Roma for marriage with Lord Kalki.]

“ Next, King Sashidhwaj recalled his sons from the battlefield and gave away his daughter Roma for marriage with Kalki in accordance with the wishes of his wife, Sushanta. All the allies of Kalki were invited to Vallat from the battlefield (for the marriage). “

~ Kalki Purana, III[10], Verses 25 & 26

Thus, the wars of Lord Kalki came to an end.III[14] describes that after the war, Lord Kalki handed over various portions of his liberated lands to various kings who were his allies and Satya Yuga (Age of Truth) was established on the Earth. Lord Kalki himself stayed in Shambhala with his two wives, Padma and Roma.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_23692 » 24 Sep 2014 09:11

On this genuinely proud day in Indian history, one of the rare ones, and I am privileged to be alive to experience it, I am literally teary eyed, imagining an Indian space craft in an orbit around Mars. As a regular and harsh India basher, I genuinely with all my heart, congratulate my fellow Indians, all one plus billion of them, each one of them, regardless of their religion, region, ethnicity, language, ideology. Today, I am genuinely, genuinely proud, even prouder than when we went nuclear.

Mr Modi should call upon the Chinese president today, to join us Indians, to pursue grand goals for the betterment of humanity, rather than indulging in petty thievery and petty encroachments in an attempt to seize some land from us. Today is a glaring example of contrasting visions between India and China. Indian space craft enters the Martian orbit in its first attempt and the Chinese are holed up on the heights of Chumar trying to steal some land from us.

I never once believed those who said that they were proud that we had democracy and the Chinese did not. I always wanted us to have the economy and infra-structure and the self confidence of the Chinese. But today, I can genuinely say, that we have something that the Chinese dont. We have Mars. And no amount of obfuscation by the Chinese or the Western press will take that away. They all have to grudgingly accept it.

I take this opportunity to urge my fellow countrymen. Today proves, that if we just develop the right mindset, we Indians can do anything, solve any problems. Let us adjust our mindset, just a little bit, and we will see that in no time, we Indians will reach the stage where we will be near complete human beings, very human, very generous, very kind, very giving and quite well to do ourselves.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Philip » 24 Sep 2014 10:44

The RSS has echoed my idea of boycotting Chinese goods all over India and have called for the same.India can make China pay for its perfidy economically.The GOI has many diplomatic moves to apply pressure upon China,sending a high-powered delegation to Taiwan,enhanced defence cooperation with Vietnam,sale of various missiles to China's enemies,turning Vietnam into a N-capable state with a gift/assistance in establishing a N-reactor/research/N-power plants,which will allow the Vietnamese to one day go nuclear like NoKo if they desire.There are many options to counter China's moves in the IOR littoral,with counter offers to Sri Lanka,the Maldives,etc. The $50B trade deficit can be halted with innovative duties imposed upon Chinese goods which would make them impossible to import.The $50B saved could be used partly to beef up our defence and the rest for supporting Indian industry/small-scale industry and agriculture.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Kashi » 24 Sep 2014 10:50

rsangram wrote:As I see it, if China decides to escalate, as it already has done, we have the following choices.

1. We back off, and allow them to steal even more of our land, as a continuation of their stealing our land for the past 50 years. We can give it a nice veneer Indian style, couch it in glory, sign a "face saving" agreement with the Chinese, hide the actual facts from the general public in India, declare victory, and end it all with Modi and Xi sitting on a Jhula swing together.

OR

2. We go with a begging bowl to all the capitals, who will have us at this point, particularly Moscow and Washington (the only realistic possibilities), barter away some of our self respect and self interests vis-a-vis either Moscow or Washington and have them bail us out. This is what we did in 1962, where Nehru, with all his anti-West and socialist rhetoric, went begging to Kennedy. I doubt, though, this time if Washington will have the appetite to completely bail us out. The best they can probably do is again, provide a "face saving" veneer for us Indians, while leaving some of the territory still in Chinese hands. I dont have much hopes from Putin and Moscow whatsoever.

Take your pick. There is no third option. If you think India can push the Chinese back all on its own, you are pipe dreaming.

For the future though, instead of being jingoistic and reflexively anti-Western, we may attempt to build some alliances, well in advance of such escalations by the Chinese or Islamists, with the West (who are the only likely people who will even talk to us and entertain an alliance, as the Russians are now deeply in the Chinese corner and need the Chinese badly), based on some semblance of self interest and self respect. We cant expect to come out of this with all our territory, all our self respect and all our self interest intact, as 60 years of bad policies will have consequences. You cannot keep on behaving badly and suicidally for 60 years and not have any consequences.

This loss of land to the Chinese, among other humiliations, are just some of the consequences of us Indians behaving like idiots, not just idiots, but suicidal idiots, over the past 60 years. There is a lot more to come, if we dont reverse course as a nation and as a people.

The chickens, as they say, Kashi master, are coming home to roost. In fact, the chickens have been coming home to roost for a long time, for us Indians. Only now, it is there for all to see.


A whole lot of assumptions and interestingly you offer absolutely no details on

a. Your opinion of what constitutes 60 years of bad "suicidal" policies..
b. How have we behaved "badly"
c. What constitutes behaving as suicidal idiots.

Of course, all you offer in terms of suggestions is to "attempt to build alliances with the good ole West" since "Russians are now deeply in the Chinese corner and need the Chinese badly"

So kindly humour me, how is it that the West which depends on Chinese to supply much of their inexpensive daily use goods (which you should surely have noticed in your daily trips to Walmart, Target etc) and even more so on the huge captive Chinese market to buy their stuff to keep their economies afloat, are hardly in the Chinese corner than the Russians?

Since you are so fond of metaphors, to paraphrase the incomparable Navjot Singh Siddhu, wouldn't putting our faith in someone else be a quintessential Hen brooding over a China egg (pun intended)?

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20292 » 24 Sep 2014 11:57

rsangram ji
OT, but:
You might be depressed. You may try counseling and therapy and medications

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby SSridhar » 24 Sep 2014 12:14

Growing India-Japan ties irk China: Western Diplomats - Saibal Dasgupta, ET
Chinese president Xi Jinping's rhetoric about "regional war" shortly after his return from India could be a sign of his frustration over his apparent failure in persuading Prime Minister Narendra Modi to go slow on his relations with Japan, say western diplomats.

He had asked People's Liberation Army (PLA) commanders to "sharpen their ability to win a regional war in the age of information technology" on Sunday amid standoff with India along the de facto border between the two countries in Ladakh.

"Japan's move towards militarization and Modi's arrival as a strongman happened at the same time. Friendship between him and Japan's (prime minister Shinzo) Abe is the worst thing that can happen to China," a Beijing-based western diplomat said. "Xi is ready to put military pressure on India to keep it away from Japan."

He said China is getting desperate to prove its supremacy in the region. "Look at the near collision between a Chinese fighter and a US warplane last month," he said.

"China is hugely worried about developing Japan-India relations. This can strengthen Japan's hands and seriously harm China's influence in the world."

Another diplomat echoed him saying China would "both woo, threaten or do whatever it feels necessary to keep India from joining hands with Japan''. He said China is determined to "be a regional bully'' and India-Japan combine could destroy this.

Beijing has a long history of rivalry with Tokyo and considers it a serious threat to its rise.

Some experts have suggested Xi has used similar language in his past interactions with PLA officers and the latest statement should be seen in this light.

But others believe Xi consciously cited "regional war" while speaking to PLA commanders as it coincided with the stand-off with Indian forces.

Sources said Xi spoke about the "regional war" to win over the commanders as he is trying to reinforce his authority over the military.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Pratyush » 24 Sep 2014 12:24

The best thing that the PRC can do to prevent India from joining any alliance against the PRC. Is to do absolutely nothing, on the LAAC. make no comments and trade like there is no tomorrow.

PRC may be thinking that we have TSP to keep India in check. OK, well India has Japan to keep the PRC in check.

The only ones who can insure peace in Asia are the PRC but for some strange reason they are intent on provoking nearly every one around them.

The question is what are they seeking to achieve, by having every one gang up against them.

Or in a perverse way, do they want to tell their own population that just as they were targeted by outside powers in the past. Even at present they are still being targeted by outsiders. Never mind that this threat has solidified because of the actions of the men on Beijing.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20292 » 24 Sep 2014 15:06

Pratyush wrote:The best thing that the PRC can do to prevent India from joining any alliance against the PRC. Is to do absolutely nothing, on the LAAC. make no comments and trade like there is no tomorrow.

PRC may be thinking that we have TSP to keep India in check. OK, well India has Japan to keep the PRC in check.

The only ones who can insure peace in Asia are the PRC but for some strange reason they are intent on provoking nearly every one around them.

The question is what are they seeking to achieve, by having every one gang up against them.


The Chinese are an expansionist bunch. They dont seek to achieve anything but expansion for the sake of it.

We are more European in nature. Time to become expansionist if we have to even try to rival China.

Thats what India is now doing, with its strategic deals with Japan, Australia, US, Vietnam. We are also trapping the dragon in a cage.

That's what China justifiably gets for arming the Paki's with nuclear weapons. Wonder if Vietnam needs to be helped by us similarly ? :twisted: :twisted:

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby KLNMurthy » 24 Sep 2014 19:09

Looks like all focus is on discussing conventional war scenarios. Xi's words to PLA suggest that he wants to use his cyberwar capabilities. That may be where the surprise attack will come from. The entire Ladakh operation may be a feint.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby ramana » 24 Sep 2014 19:18

I plan to close this thread on Friday. And archive it.
Thanks for the participation.
ramana

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Pratyush » 24 Sep 2014 20:48

KLNMurthy wrote:Looks like all focus is on discussing conventional war scenarios. Xi's words to PLA suggest that he wants to use his cyberwar capabilities. That may be where the surprise attack will come from. The entire Ladakh operation may be a feint.



What effect will a cyber attack have on a nations with Indian level of cyber intigration. Ok rail reservation will not work for the duration of the attacks. The payment gateway may be effected. Beyond that? ??

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby member_20317 » 24 Sep 2014 21:04

A lot of cyber warfare is not equal equal to hacking. What about opinion management?

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Prem » 24 Sep 2014 22:42

Zhou En-Lai visited and lauded Bhakra Dam , Gyarah Lauds MOM and if history repeats , China will throw military challenge in about 2 years time.

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby Yashu » 25 Sep 2014 00:19

The chickens, as they say, Kashi master, are coming home to roost. In fact, the chickens have been coming home to roost for a long time, for us Indians. Only now, it is there for all to see.[/quote]

Do not give us philosophy tell some thing new
It is always a reality that you have to fight your own wars and battles with or without anyone so we have to face it with ever we have
and please don't give this military superiority crap of china again and again like many on this forum
It is not the dog which matters in a fight but fight in the dog which matters

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Re: Chinese president's visit. "Thaw or Cold War"?

Postby ramana » 25 Sep 2014 01:12

Written by Syed Ata Hasnain | Posted: September 24, 2014 12:09 am


In the euphoria over the potential economic and diplomatic gains from the visit of the Chinese president, the nagging problem at Demchok and Chumar remained inexplicable to most casual observers. The games being played from Depsang (2013) to Demchok and Chumar have long gone on and “tolerance for ambiguity” has its limits.

Military professionalism usually does not demand this kind of tolerance at tactical levels. I would be at a loss to give any orders to my subordinates in such a situation, and in the army we are used to giving crisp and clear orders; to introduce diplomacy at the tactical level is a folly because it complicates the situation. One needs to climb down from the lofty pedestal of strategy to the sub-tactical level to get a measure of how things play out on the frontlines and why diplomacy cannot be conducted from the end point of bayonets.

Everyone knows there is a non-existent border between Ladakh and Tibet. India has claim lines that extend into China’s perceptions of its territory and vice-versa. The two armies and border forces stay away from these but proceed to patrol areas to the limit of their perceived claim lines, thus leading to transgressions and “intrusions”.



The problem — unlike the LoC with Pakistan, which is a temporary line where ground positions rest — is that there is no line temporarily accepted by India and China along their border. Progressive border protocols have recognised this, but no agreed procedure to first settle such a temporary line without prejudice to subsequent agreements has ever been arrived at.

The protocols, however, have recognised the need for immediate disengagement should there be an impending clash based on individual perceptions. In recent years, this too has been largely ineffective in the face of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) attempts to heckle, extract advantage or send messages to not only India but the world that China will not accept any compromise on its territorial claims.

China seems to believe it can follow a dual-track policy of benefiting from economic and diplomatic engagement while continuing to remind the other nation that it has territorial issues to settle. With Vietnam, the policy led to a dangerous standoff involving the PLA’s navy.

China’s approach to Vietnam has been tentative due to the psychological effects of the setback it suffered on the battlefield during the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war; with India, the clear victory in the border war of 1962 emboldens Beijing. [b]That is why the media, if no one else, needs to remind China about the 1967 standoff at Nathu La and how it was triggered by such similar intransigence to China’s disadvantage[/b].

At Nathu La, the PLA attempted to intimidate the Indian army unit with continuous propaganda aired through loudspeakers; in Chumar and Demchok, as also in other places, it is banner warfare. Infantry units of the Indian army that face such situations, thrive on their honour and achievements — the standoffs mentioned above can sometimes lead to situations where that honour is perceived to be compromised.

In the heat of such repeated events, a larger conflagration could likely be triggered, with resultant strategic effects at the political level. If there is nothing as clear as war, there is nothing as hazy and difficult to comprehend as “no war no peace”. That is why the army has included “tolerance for ambiguity” as one of the important qualities to be assessed in its officer cadre.

Not many understand the finer nuances of this quality but no better situation exemplifies it than that which exists along the LAC. Clearly, the predicament at the tactical and sub-tactical levels needs to be kept in mind while the entire gamut of relations with China is played out; there is much to be gained from being within the loop of detail in such situations and it is good to see the army chief having a direct line to the prime minister.

There is no shortage of explanations for Chinese actions, ranging from the PLA’s rogue attitude towards the political leadership in Beijing to the reminders to India and other nations about its policy of securing its economic interests without compromising on its territorial disputes.

From a study of the Chinese media as well as interactions with officials during a recent visit to China, I could sense that Beijing will continue to woo potential partners for economic cooperation. However, it is apprehensive about Japan and Vietnam, with whom it has similar festering disputes in the maritime arena.

Talks on economic cooperation with India without effective reminders about outstanding boundary disputes may have sent contrary signals to these two countries. It was important, therefore, to adopt a similar posture for all its potential economic partners. The possibility of an emerging US-India-Japan axis — the portents of which appeared after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan and may materialise after his imminent visit to the US — is definitely a factor unnerving China.

Military posturing in such a situation sends a signal of being in control. That such military posturing can go awry in the face of a trigger does not appear to have been taken into account by China. In fact, Beijing would do well to realistically analyse India’s military potential, which may appear weak but, in effect, is sufficient to dent China’s image should there be a localised showdown.

Keeping India away from US-Japan linkages is a legitimate strategy for China, but not at the cost of risking a military conflagration. PM Modi’s plainspeaking may have sent an appropriate message that India will not cow down before military posturing. But President Xi Jinping’s strange strategy of seeking enhanced friendship in the backdrop of a border standoff is unlikely to be drawn back.

As for handling the sub-tactical to the strategic, India’s various agencies must adopt a holistic consultative approach with loads of “tolerance for ambiguity”.

The writer is a former General Officer Commanding of the Srinagar-based
15 Corps and served extensively in Eastern Ladakh. He is a Fellow of the Vivekanand International Foundation and the Delhi Policy Group

- See more at: http://indianexpress.com/article/world/ ... 1GE2G.dpuf


I decided to close this thread early as it is inviting inanities.
Thanks all to those who participated.

ramana

PS: And those who did drive-byes!!!


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