Postby Rudradev » 30 Mar 2015 23:01
People are entitled to their own opinions on how Modi handles Pakistan, but here is mine, FWIW.
Let Modi resume peace/security/counter-terrorism/economic/any-other-BS chai biskoot with Pakistan. At the foreign secretary level or the ministerial level. I am not concerned.
Let Modi make offers to sell Pakistan gas or electricity from India. I am not concerned.
Let Modi send his officials to rub shoulders with Pakistanis at multilateral meets, or shake Nawaz Sharif's hand when they meet somewhere. Let Modi even visit Pakistan if he wants. I am not concerned.
If troops are moved back from the LOC/IB, or the army's hands are tied when it comes to retaliating for cross-border shelling or beheading expeditions...
If an additional watt of Indian power or an additional cc of Indian gas actually ends up crossing the border to Pakistan...
If any noises are made at bilateral fora about putting Indian territory (Sir Creek, Siachen, Kashmir valley) "on the table", or at multilateral fora about "conceding to Indian involvement in Baluchistan", etc...
IF any of these things happen, then, MAYBE I will be concerned. But probably not even then.
Why, you may ask? Why would the same actions which caused me such grief and concern from the Manmohan/Maino regime be of little or no concern to me from the MAD government?
The answer is trust. I did not trust that the Sonia Maino-controlled, Manmohan Singh-"led" dispensation had India's national interest at heart. I don't think I need to make the case why. Everything from Sharm-el-Sheikh to "Saffron Terror" to an endless roster of scams has already made the case for me.
Meanwhile, I simply do not believe that MAD will ever give anything of any substance to Pakistan. Ever.
Now I understand the argument that some put forward... why talk to Pakistan at all then? Why even acknowledge their existence? Even if it is only about "optics", don't the "optics" simply feed into Pakistan's delusions about being "equal" to India, about being able to influence Indian policy? Why give them even that milligram of izzat which they will convert into a ton of reeking jihadi hubris?
The only answer I have is the counterfactual. If we do NOT feed their delusion, do the Pakis become LESS delusional? Has that ever happened, even after we amputated half their country? Does it cure them to disillusion them? Also, are we the only ones feeding their delusion? Isn't that being fed by a whole industry of people in the West, in the PRC, in the Arab world? If we stop feeding does that mean they stop eating?
Therefore, the downside of feeding their delusion by such optics on our part is minimal compared to the potential third-party advantages we might gain (such as being able to portray ourselves as a peace-loving and conciliatory member of the international community, undermine the "nuclear flashpoint" narrative, etc.)
The true test of MAD's Pakistan policy will come when the Pakis try some $hit. They have tried a little, in J&K. Immediately afterwards, Baluchistan has reached boiling point. Coincidence, maybe. But I at least allow for the possibility that one hand clad in velvet can make gentle gestures ("optics") above the table, while another hand reaches firmly for the Paki gotas under the table.
If a man like Ajit Doval, out of all 1.2 billion Indians, isn't capable of this, then maybe only "Bahadur" from Indrajal Comics is the leader we can count on.
The question each one of us has to answer for himself is... do I trust MAD, or not? If you don't trust, you will continue to experience heartburn every time one of these "optics" is highlighted (and that too, highlighted by a mainstream media which we loathe, and which is universally recognized to have an anti-Modi agenda). That's all there is to it.