Postby SSridhar » 31 Mar 2015 13:40
The Saudis have put their pride on the table in the Yemen issue. They need to win. They know that air strikes are not going to get them reach their goal. They need boots on the ground. The only worthwhile boots they can get are from Pakistan and possibly Egypt. But, both countries have their own internal problems to contend with. Saudis have more leverage and familiarity with the Pakistani armed forces than with their Egyptian counterparts. They also know that for some sumptuous monetary gain, they would do anything. The Saudi armed forces are rag tag. I know but don't ask me how. This is an open secret anyway. They are completely incapable and incompetent. They are neither capable of bravery, nor planning nor handling equipment (leave alone complex pieces of equipment). They have no experience of a war. They were never involved in Op Desert Storm though Lt. Gen Khalid bin Sultan was appointed ceremonially as the commander of the Arab forces and did his best to mess up. If the US had not intervened through Op. Desert Shield, Iraq would have swallowed KSA in no time in c. 1989, after Kuwait.
Yemen has been a source of constant problem for the Saudis. In the 1960s war, it had to fight against Nasser's Egypt which deposed the Royalty, but again the UK & US were on its side. It has a border dispute with Yemen and there is a large influx of Yemenis in Saudi Arabia. The bin Laden family is itself a Hadramout Yemeni. Except for such influential Yemenis, the Saudis, in their usual arrogance treat the Yemenis as dirt and place many restrictions on them. The Yemenis in Saudi Arabia are extremely displeased with the Saudis. Yemen had been prosperous and had a civilization and culture unknown to the Rub-al-Khali tribes before Saudi Arabia as a country was born and oil was struck.
Added to that is the headache of Shi'as gaining control there now. From a religious point of view and its own stability and wealth point of view, the Saudis would want to keep the Shi'as under a tight leash. That was why they sent their rag tag troops to Bahrain when riots erupted there, FWIW. However, their misadventure with the ISIS cost them a lot politically. They were so outraged with the US for discontinuing its support after promising it that they even refused the UNSC rotational membership. Obama had to re-establish the relationship by departing early from India after the R-day celebrations.
The Iran-US-IAEA denouement on the nuclear programme is another source of great constipation for KSA. The worry can be gauged from the extent to which KSA has reportedly gone, that of having some secret understanding with Israel to take out the Iranian facilities.
The oil has plummeted and the effect on the Saudi economy would be visible shortly. The new King, in order to seal his hold on the throne, has been ostentatious in giving away billions to his citizens and tribes. The next Saudi budget should reveal that though the Saudi budgets are usually efforts at masking the real monetary issues. Since Gulf War, the Saudi budgets have been deficit budgets and KSA was forced to even borrow from the IMF at times. Those woes continue. The latest efforts in Syria and Yemen must add to that as Pakistan would extract its pound of flesh.
Pakistan smells an opportunity, like a shark, in the woeful situation of KSA. I think the two Sharifs are playing the usual good cop-bad cop drama with KSA.
