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India - South & North Korea Thread

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Atmavik » 11 Aug 2017 21:13

Philip wrote:PS:It is perhaps not coincidental that one country which could also be brought to bear upon NoKo is conspicuous by its absence,Russia. Why?


Phillip sir,

this is OT for this thread. maybe u can answer it somewhere else. Russia was working well with US after the Bush-Putin friendship. i know Russia cannot align with western Europe but it made sense to work with US then why did O' Bomer poke russia in ukraine. was it state dept politics? or britsh1ts at it agian? if the goal was to pivot to Asia then why pick this fight at this time.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Aug 2017 21:22

Has the plan to go to war with NoKo been on the anvil for some time now?

The debate has been strong since at least 2005/2006.
At this point, I would say that the other options have not panned out. The "Allies" (per USAtodin) are simply calling for capitulation. To quote:
Accept NoKo as a nuclear-armed power (IOW, P-7, 2 b followed by TSP - why not Eyeran then?)

So I think Sanctions Diplomacy does nothing except to strengthen the argument for war - as happened with Saddam 1991-2000. Of course they are going to try to sneak around the Sanctions to feed their children! And that is used as justification for "ShockNAwe".
The only non-capitulation option is for the POTUS to go on record with a simple statement of policy:
Our goal is to see the peaceful, democratic and free Reunification of the Korean People

IMO, though they have the alternative of peaceful co-existence, this will trigger war by PeeAllSee and NoKo, which must then end in destruction of the regime and reunification on SoKo terms.
Then again, how is that different from Gen. MacArthur's "Home Bah XMas"?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2017 03:12

I think China real target is demilitarize Guam. This is just like Soviet Union wanted removal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey and created Cuban missiles crisis. NoKo plays role of Cuba now.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 12 Aug 2017 03:15

UB, Overflying foreign countries for missile tests is virtual war for debris can fall. In late 60s China wanted to test by having splash down in Arabian Sea or Western Indian Ocean. Lot of hue and cry and did not materialize.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ashish raval » 12 Aug 2017 03:27

I am surprised to hear Americans fear for Chinese entry in the war should Americans fire first. On the contrary this will be golden opportunity to kill communism on the face of the earth once and for all. Americans has prepared for this since last 15 years and their military can destroy PLA within a month even when Russians join the war with China. The American supply chain cannot be broken in the East by anyone including Chinese or Russians. Sorry to say but that is fact... Chinese cities are sitting ducks and their highly urbanised concentration means that the destruction can be felt much more than Americans will.

I am reasonably sure that China will not enter war unless Japan explicitly does. If it does than it will be start of WW3. China has more to loose and with 1 child policy they will not have enough young men's to even lift the coffins.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2017 00:27

What war? US not mobilizing.
I think Orange Bandar is making Little Bandar jump up and down for sheer entertainment


Take him through a dizzying cycle: NoKo threat - DT tweet - Tillerson mollifies - Mattis barks - COTUS whines.. DT tweets again. Then silence. No mobilization, nothing.

NoKo threat again.... Ditto. Next level the Game Of Chicken may be amplified. Bombers take off.. hang around, return to base.

Latest status is
WASHINGTON — The intelligence could come to President Trump secretly and urgently: The North Koreans have placed another intercontinental missile on its launching pad. In less than two hours, it could be fueled and ready for launch on a test flight into the Pacific Ocean or perhaps on a mission to strike American territory.

In that scenario, the American president could quickly set in motion a move long debated but never taken — a preventive military action inside North Korea aimed at disabling an imminent missile launch and sending an unmistakable “cease and desist” message to Kim Jong-un, the country’s volatile leader.

In a series of verbal warnings over the past several days, Mr. Trump has repeatedly raised the specter of military action toward North Korea. On Friday, he said on Twitter that “military solutions” were “locked and loaded,” retweeted a picture of a B-1 bomber based in Guam, and warned Mr. Kim.

“If he utters one threat, in the form of an overt threat, which by the way he has been uttering for years, and his family has been uttering for years, or if he does anything with respect to Guam, or any place else that’s an American territory or an American ally, he will truly regret it and he will regret it fast,” Mr. Trump told reporters.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2017 00:32

ramana, so u r saying that a test that overflies Japan on the way to Guam vicinity, is as good as declaring war on Japan. Interesting problem: test of US and Japanese resolve.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2017 06:09

Interesting article in WaPo.Because of its blatantly incendiary nature, tweaking Eleven's tail. Words like "Paper Tiger" sprinkled liberally.
As the saying goes, the higher you climb up the pole, the more your rear end shows. China cannot solve the crisis of North Korea without incurring some costs.

But it is China that stands at the crossroads in this crisis. Beijing’s willingness to vote for tough sanctions in the United Nations is a sign pointed in the right direction. History will amply reward decisive steps in this direction, as the world sees that China is ready for the leadership role it seeks. Failure in this moment will, on the other hand, set back China’s rise for decades to come.


Imagine the effect on you if you were Eleven. You are being patted on the head for kissing the backside of the westerners and selling out your #1 al-lie: Because, read the paragraph at the start of this article:

The crisis is first a measure of China’s reliability. If it is to achieve its goal of becoming a dominant force in the Asian Pacific, other powerful nations in the region must feel a degree of confidence that Beijing can make sound decisions and carry them out wisely. North Korea’s existence is the oldest foreign policy decision of the Chinese Communist government. The Red Army’s intervention in the Korean War in 1950, which drove back the American-led U.N. forces and compelled a cease-fire, was the birth of a divided Korean Peninsula.


So China is to be measured strictly by its willingness to sell its allies down the river. :rotfl:

And he twists the knife more:
And what is the fruit of that Chinese action after nearly 70 years? A hermit kingdom of wretched poverty, ruled despotically by a thuggish family bent on destabilizing the world. For many decades, China has tolerated this humiliating failure as a way of tweaking the United States at low cost.


the United States has its own track record in the Asian Pacific. While North Korea has necrotized under the Chinese protectorate, South Korea has flourished beyond any reasonable expectation. The contrast between Eastern and Western influence is as stark at the 38th Parallel as it was at the Berlin Wall, and countries pursuing their own interests will have no trouble choosing sides.


If China cannot settle a situation that is so plainly adverse to its interests, it will be revealed as a paper tiger.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ashish raval » 13 Aug 2017 06:50

If China do not enter the war, it will be 10 days before dear leader is gone.
My guesstimate: assumes 24X7 allied bombing with night sky lit up..
A) day 1 - all command structures, fuel depots and electricity stations gone while NoKo fires few missiles towards Seoul and Guam.. All of them will be shot down
B) day 2 - Americans will fight day and night and I doubt NoKo has enough night fighting ability. NoKo airforce gone on day 2 with complete air superiority by USJets.
C) day 3 - NoKo army and landscape will be blasted like popcorns by gunships.
D) day 4 - Dear leader goes mad puts threat of nuke on Seoul alas there is no delivery system left.
E) day 5 - China makes hue and cry UN chai biscuit session.
F) day 6 - soko advances to Pyongyang which is rubbble by now
G) day 7 - Russia China proposes plan NoKo army is gone and now battling with reserves
H) day 8 - leaflets start appearing in NoKo villages that end of dear leader is nigh
I) day 9 - dear leader is gone in bunker
J) day 10 - bunker buster ends dear leader and new chapter rises in east of Korean peninsula.
Americans are home for Christmas with another victory and sooth china sea is no more and instead it is whole Pacific ocean with massive American listening station at the heart of Pyongyang..
Communist despots are reduced to 2 in the world..
Balle Balle!!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2017 06:59

Sorry, u guys haven't thought about "ShahKinah" American style.

Night 1: All NoKo C^3 gone incl. underground cables.
Day 1 morning: DMZ NoKo artillery targeted by non-stop missile bombardment, added to sheet of flame from incendiaries dropped from B-2s. They get about 10 shots off towards Seoul before they are all smoked.
Day 1 morning: Sorties over Pyongyang, cruise missiles hitting all ports and Navy centers.
Day 1 morning 150 cruise missiles slam into military/govt. targets.

Lunch Break...

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Atmavik » 13 Aug 2017 07:39

^^ post lunch session.

Chinese cross the yalu river..

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Aug 2017 05:39

See.. Chinese can cross the yalu river all they want, there won't be any Americans on the ground unlike the last time. And I don't think Chinese want to be caught under a modern "Shahkinah" from the US.
Post lunch: 2nd over: B-52 fleet from Guam arrives over Yalu, with F-22s and F-35s and F-18s and F-15s providing cover. Delighted to greet Chinese Strike Corps. Also Wrong Way Wong Wei's JF Thundaar squadrons.
Next B-2 wave from CONUS reaches NoKo's remaining nuke sites and craters them.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Aug 2017 05:40

BTW, Naranja Bandar's strategy seems to be working. He told BigFAtFace to shut up, and shut up he has done.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Gagan » 14 Aug 2017 06:36

Massa General was asking India to talk to NoKo too, saying India has a Big voice in Asia.

Looks like India was one of the few nations still doing some trade with the NoKos, which stopped after new sanctions were put in place recently.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Aug 2017 07:38

IIRC India told Yoo Ess that when 95% of trade with NoKo is being done by one country (name starting with PeeAll..) it is irrelevant what the other 5% is doing.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Atmavik » 14 Aug 2017 08:28

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdWceehRt9I

GEORGE FRIEDMAN says that taking out All NoKo Artillery is not easy. they have the Orange ones Seoul Towers in range.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 14 Aug 2017 15:05

The Chinese sh*tworm of a pres.,XI GIns,showed off his duplicity skills by pretending to be a peacemaker in the NoKo crisis,urging "calm"!
In actual fact,it is exactly the opposite that he is encouraging with the spat with India at Doklam.Truly does the inscrutable yellow-livered oriental potentate of Chin speak with a forked tongue.

Trump is right to send the shivers down Youn Un's spine.His rhetoric and actions-missile launches are highly provocative and he must be told in no uncertain terms what the consequences will be. The US has a very formidable force in the Pacific which can unleash hundreds of conventional PGM strikes using Tomahawks,etc. There could be massive heavy bombing of NoKo's arty formations too,which are the strongest threat to SoKo.
The crisis has clearly put China in the nutcracker.It has lost much leverage with NoKo's young leader and is being held up as an irresponsible power in allowing its nuclear ally,NoKo to go "rogue".

The big Q is what will China do if the shooting starts? There will be a huge onslaught against NoKo initially conventional,which will raise the risk of an N-exchange if NoKo appears to be losing.A defeated/disgraced NoKo would also be huge loss of face for China,emboldening the US to perhaps take potshots at Pak if it also wants to play "rogue". Trump's trigger finger is itching badly. The Russia issue is to him a scratch in the seat of his pants which isn't going away.A successful wounding of NoKo could see his fortunes rise as every Yanqui loves to bash a barbarian state,preferably a Commie one! The crisis is v.good news for India as China has a far more serious crisis here than disputing a barren Himalayan piece of wasteland and threatening a derailment of its OBOR gambit. The worlda is watching with bated breath.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... ked-loaded
Chinese president speaks with Trump and urges calm over North Korea
Xi Jinping says all sides should avoid rhetoric
Trump’s ‘locked and loaded’ tweet earns rebuke from Angela Merkel

Julian Borger in Washington
Saturday 12 August 2017
China’s president, Xi Jinping, has told Donald Trump in a phone call that all sides should avoid rhetoric or action that would worsen tensions on the Korean peninsula, according to Chinese state media.

Reports quoted Xi as saying: “At present, the relevant parties must maintain restraint and avoid words and deeds that would exacerbate the tension on the Korean peninsula.” :rotfl: *(pass the kimchi?)

Trump has pushed China to pressure North Korea to halt a nuclear weapons programme that is nearing the capability of targeting the United States. China is the North’s biggest economic partner and source of aid.

Trump on Friday went further to turn the crisis into a personal battle of wills between him and Kim Jong-un, warning the North Korean leader he would “truly regret” hostile acts against US territory or US allies.

Donald Trump loyalists eager to back up his rhetoric on North Korea
Read more
The warning came a few hours after an early morning tweet from the president that claimed US military options were “locked and loaded” for use if Pyongyang “acted unwisely”.

The tweet triggered worldwide alarm and a rebuke from the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, who said: “I consider an escalation of rhetoric the wrong answer.”

But Trump stood by his words when asked about them at his golf resort in New Jersey. “I hope they are going to fully understand the gravity of what I said, and what I said is what I mean,” he said. “Those words are very, very easy to understand.”

Trump then issued an ultimatum to Kim Jong-un himself. “This man will not get away with what he’s doing,” he said. “If he utters one threat in the form of an overt threat … or if he does anything in respect to Guam or anyplace else that’s an American territory or an American ally, he will truly regret it and he will regret it fast.”

Boris Johnson, the UK foreign secretary, said on Twitter that Britain was working with the US and other countries in the region to end the diplomatic crisis.

He said the international community stood “shoulder to shoulder in ensuring North Korea stops its aggressive acts”, adding:
The North Korean regime is the cause of this problem and they must fix it

The North Korean leadership has warned it will launch four missiles at the waters around US Pacific territory of Guam as a warning to the US if it persists with its practice sorties by long-range bombers based on the island.

Despite gung-ho language from the US president, there was no change in US deployments in the region or a change in the alert status of US forces. And it was reported on Friday that the Trump administration had reopened a channel of communication between US and North Korean diplomats at the UN.

According to the Associated Press, the “New York channel” had been broken off by North Korea in protest against sanctions in 2016, but it was revived this year between Joseph Yun, the US envoy for North Korea policy, and Pak Song-il, a senior North Korean diplomat at the country’s UN mission.

The US state department said it had no comment on the report. It had previously been reported that there had been diplomatic contacts about US detainees in North Korea, but the new AP account said the talks addressed wider issues, although such contacts had so far failed to moderate the exchange of threats between the leaders of the two countries.

Asked about the report on Friday, Trump said: “Well, we don’t want to talk about progress, we don’t want to talk about back channels.

“We want to talk about a country that has misbehaved for many many years – decades, actually – through numerous administrations, and they didn’t want to take on the issue and I had no choice but to take it on, and I’m taking it on. And we’ll either be very, very successful quickly or we’re going to be very, very successful in a different way, quickly.”

As for Merkel’s criticism earlier in the day, Trump said: “Maybe she’s speaking for Germany; let her speak for Germany. She’s a friend of mine, she’s a very good person, a very good woman, she’s a friend of Ivanka. Perhaps she is referring to Germany. She’s certainly not referring to the United States, that I can tell you.”

In his comments, Trump made it clear that domestic political considerations played a role in shaping his rhetoric.

“If somebody else uttered the exact same words that I uttered, they’d say: ‘What a great statement, what a wonderful statement,’” Trump said. “But I will tell you, we have tens of millions of people in this country that are so happy with what I am saying, because they say, ‘Finally, we have a president that’s sticking up for our nation and frankly, sticking up for our friends and our allies.’”

Speaking to reporters in California, the US defence secretary, James Mattis, said a conflict on the Korean peninsula would be “catastrophic” and stressed that US diplomats should take the lead in resolving the crisis.

Mattis pointed to a UN security council vote at the weekend for more sanctions against North Korea as a sign that diplomacy was making progress.


Russian viewpoint.
Situation around North Korea coming close to potential use of force — Russian diplomat

Russian Politics & Diplomacy August 13,
According to Zakharova, the US may misunderstand consequences of a potential force conflict which will "affect all countries of the region"

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova© Vyacheslav Prokofyev/TASS
MOSCOW, August 13. /TASS/. The risk of a force solution to the crisis around North Korea is very high, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday.
"How far the situation has gone… Well, it has come very close to a potential possibility of a force conflict," she said in an interview with the evening news roundup on the Rossiya-1 television channel.

Trump’s statements on North Korea reminiscent of Bush’s preventive war doctrine — expert
"If the force scenario is really used and if the situation really develops in a way the Washington establishment is threatening with, it will be a real catastrophe," she said.
According to Zakharova, the United States seems not to understand consequences of a potential force conflict which will "affect all countries of the region, and not only them."
"Representatives of the establishment, Congressmen are reassuring people saying they should not worry about that as it will not kill people in the US, it will kill people in other countries, implying not only North Korea. I think they mean South Korea as well," she noted.
These week, Washington and Pyongyang have been exchanging sharp statements. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump told reporters that North Korea should stop threatening the United States, otherwise Washington will answer with "fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen." North Korea’s Central News Agency (KCNA) later reported that Pyongyang was "carefully examining" plans for a missile strike on the Andersen Air Force Base located on the US Pacific territory of Guam.
More:
http://tass.com/politics/960182

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 14 Aug 2017 15:19

Breaking news.Just in.Independent UK.
US preparing for war if sanctions fail.

wsWorldAmericas
North Korea: America preparing military options in case sanctions fail, most senior US army general says
Amrica is preparing military options in case sanctions against North Korea fail, the most senior general in the US armed forces has said.

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Uber alles in der Welt,
Venn shitz and turdz hitz der fan,
Brudders letz go kik zum ham!
Don-land,Don-land,uber alles,
Uber alles in der Welt!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ldev » 14 Aug 2017 21:17

Oh, the tangled web we weave :rotfl:

Maybe John McCain and his regime change,war mongering buddies who helped mount the coup that overthrew the previous Government should call up their good buddies in the Ukrainian Government, they helped instal, to stop these rocket motor supplies to North Korea that now threaten the US.

North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say

North Korea’s success in testing an intercontinental ballistic missile that appears able to reach the United States was made possible by black-market purchases of powerful rocket engines probably from a Ukrainian factorywith historical ties to Russia’s missile program, according to an expert analysis being published Monday and classified assessments by American intelligence agencies.

The studies may solve the mystery of how North Korea began succeeding so suddenly after a string of fiery missile failures, some of which may have been caused by American sabotage of its supply chains and cyberattacks on its launches. After those failures, the North changed designs and suppliers in the past two years, according to a new study by Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.


Analysts who studied photographs of the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, inspecting the new rocket motors concluded that they derive from designs that once powered the Soviet Union’s missile fleet. The engines were so powerful that a single missile could hurl 10 thermonuclear warheads between continents.


Those engines were linked to only a few former Soviet sites. Government investigators and experts have focused their inquiries on a missile factory in Dnipro, Ukraine, on the edge of the territory where Russia is fighting a low-level war to break off part of Ukraine. During the Cold War, the factory made the deadliest missiles in the Soviet arsenal, including the giant SS-18. It remained one of Russia’s primary producers of missiles even after Ukraine gained independence.

But since Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was removed from power in 2014, the state-owned factory, known as Yuzhmash, has fallen on hard times. The Russians canceled upgrades of their nuclear fleet. The factory is underused, awash in unpaid bills and low morale. Experts believe it is the most likely source of the engines that in July powered the two ICBM tests, which were the first to suggest that North Korea has the range, if not necessarily the accuracy or warhead technology, to threaten American cities.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vina » 14 Aug 2017 21:39

UlanBatori wrote:BTW, Naranja Bandar's strategy seems to be working.


Cheta, Andha Simhasanatthil amrannavan, Naranja Manushyana ? Naranja Korangana ? Avan Manushyanin veshatthil oru Korangan annen theaninnu. Ninnaanlute abhiprayam entan ? Kurangunkku strategy undo ? Avanre shatru Koreaville oru valliya thadiyan. Thadiyan kurangannai taelpikkum.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2017 04:14

Naranja Bandar risks looking like an idiot (as has happened to every POTUS) in dealing with FAtFace clan. But his choices are narrowing. # of US dead in the NoKo deployment is -what? 20+ already? With NOTHING to show for it

UBCNews prediction is, say, one NoKo submarine will be sunk (to pre-empt SLBM risk) with very little public announcement, and maybe a spectacular shootdown of next missile launch (self-defense/defense of Guam/Japan), this one with the US claiming credit. Both are limited displays, though the first involves death of the NoKo crew.
Decision to respond to these will be up to FatFace; ppl inside NoKo will not hear of either event as anything but an accident.

The above would satisfy H&D in 5-walled palace without doing any serious damage anywhere. Also shut up the HC-gang critics, in that it will shut down the NoKo missile test program. Loss of sub will signify intent and decision to inflict major pain. Negotiations resumed to C-R-E.

We all know that the purpose of the 6-Party Talks hosted by PeeAllSee is to reduce US and NoKo to warring children, with Eleven being the Elder Brother/Voice of Reason. Remains to be seen whether Naranja Bandar fall for this scam, or calls their bluff. Set up meetings in NYC at UN tower, or worse, Trump Towers. Chaired by Mattis on US side.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby chanakyaa » 15 Aug 2017 06:55

UB saar, perhaps it is time to press the snooze button on the NoKo drama. Periodic dramebazzi has served its purpose. Baby Kim will be back in 12-15 months. In the meantime, check out the new kick-a$$ camp Humpty Dumpty that will consolidate all unkil's business over sprawling mini-city spread across 3000+ acres in SoKo. Posh apartments, houses, shopping centers, water parks, sport venues. What crisis are you talking about?? :D


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 15 Aug 2017 09:28

Don't forget that not too long ago an alleged NoKo sub of vintage style,sank a SoKo anti-sub missile corvrtte! The sub was never cauhht.NoKo commns. will be critical if the balloon goes up.Young 'Un must've based a lot of his deterrrent UG.Tough to eliminate.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Aug 2017 09:52

A pity. I was counting on FatFace to do a knee-jerk reaction and set off some festivities that led to a serious downsizing of PeeAllSee.
Markets are still down significantly.
See? Such optimism!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 16 Aug 2017 06:13

Hope is not lost yet. OTOH, stock market reaction is scary: continuously going down. So Diyar Leadar has already cost the US several billion dollars, including moi.

So missiles are moved into position for launch, while Leadar watches whether US will behave or whether it will continue with irrational and non-obeisant attacks.

Seoul: North Korea's leader has delayed a decision on firing missiles towards the US territory of Guam while he watches the actions of the United States a little longer, the North's state media said on Tuesday, as Washington warned it would take out any missile heading for the Pacific island.


So it is all up to DT. One wrong word on teetar and... (what is the probability of that? Nah!)

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 17 Aug 2017 01:13

https://www.wsj.com/articles/soften-the ... 1502836429
Soften the Tone and Harden Our Defenses
Trump can solve the North Korea crisis by pressuring China and rebuilding the U.S. military at last


By Mark Helprin
Aug. 15, 2017 6:33 p.m. ET
122 COMMENTS

The North Korean nuclear crisis can be defused peacefully and to America’s advantage if its elements are perceived with strategic clarity, and if U.S. leaders recognize that diplomacy depends less upon signals than upon maneuver.

Kim Jong Un is not entirely irrational. The purpose of his nuclear program is not to court annihilation but to deter American military options on the Korean Peninsula and change the correlation of forces in his favor. North Korea created chemical and biological arsenals that effectively neutralized American tactical nuclear weapons and led to their withdrawal. What we see now is an amplification of that strategy, with the object of eventually driving American forces from Korea.

It is extremely unlikely that Mr. Kim would strike, if at all, before his nuclear forces have matured in numbers and reliability. Relatively few of his delivery systems or miniaturized warheads have been extensively tested. Nor have they been proven to work together. And the U.S. and Japan have multiple layers of midcourse and terminal-phase missile defenses.

Thus, time remains to set in motion options on the escalation ladder between the fatal extremes of either doing nothing or taking precipitous military action. The problem is that these opportunities have not been exploited, the focus having been too much on Pyongyang rather than on Beijing, which can both completely shut down the North Korean economy and credibly threaten military intervention.

To the extent that China is shifting, it is because it fears a war on its border, understands what such a war would do to its own and the world’s economy, fears even more that Japan and South Korea might develop nuclear deterrents, and sees that its nuclear calculus has been disrupted by the Thaad radar’s ability to enhance American missile defense via forwarding data on Chinese missile launches in boost phase.

But this is not enough. As the late U.S. ambassador to China James Lilley said: “You won’t get anything from them unless you squeeze them.” In view of America’s disappearing red lines, repeated nuclear capitulations to North Korea and Iran, the largely substanceless “pivot” to Asia, and our passivity in the South China Sea, China will wait to see if we fold.

To date, the Trump administration has failed to apply the kind of intermediate measures on the escalation ladder that are outlined below. It needs to understand that China is watching and waiting, and that absent either overwhelming military superiority or a vast store of credibility—neither of which we now possess—a diplomacy primarily of signals will not produce results. In addition, the Trump administration may think that Pyongyang is too important for Beijing to “abandon.” True, North Korea serves as a “fleet in being” for China, tying down U.S. forces and ready to supply another front to divide them in case of war elsewhere, but now conditions are sufficiently dangerous and different that China can be stimulated to reassess.

That is, if the U.S. takes previously neglected measures to respond to China’s military rise, protect our Asian allies, and guard international waters from maritime irredentism.

The president can switch from tough-guy talk to going before a joint session of Congress to ask for an emergency increase in funding to correct the longstanding degradation of American military power. He can say that the can has been kicked down the road far too long, and the buck stops with him. If Congress responds enthusiastically, as it should, China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran will see that the giant has awakened, and the funding will make possible what follows:

• Given the immense distances across the Pacific, American conventional military leverage and deterrence vis-à-vis China depend entirely upon bases in South Korea, Japan, and Guam. These bases are insufficiently hardened against attack by China’s many intermediate-range ballistic missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and bombers. Munitions bunkers and aircraft are ranged in tight rows rather than scattered in deep, underground, highly fortified shelters. Given the wingspans and tail heights of B-52s and C-17s, these would be immensely expensive, but war is much more so in every respect.

• Now that the U.S. may soon be threatened by a rogue regime’s ICBMs, a vigorous acceleration of every aspect of ballistic-missile defense is warranted. This will protect against Iran and North Korea, promote uncertainty and hesitation in mature powers’ calculation of their nuclear thresholds, and reduce the chances of a first strike against the U.S. by protecting its retaliatory capacities.

The F-22—slated for 750 copies but reduced to 187; much faster than the F-35, with almost twice the range and more than twice the armament—is essential in the vast expanses of the Western Pacific. But it was taken out of production not that long ago when the Obama administration believed that security situations such as we now face were inconceivable. Restoring production lines, at a cost of one-tenth the AIG bailout, would exert priceless influence upon China.

• Nothing would rivet China’s attention more than if the U.S. formally announced that absent the abolition of North Korea’s nuclear capacity it would look with favor upon and assist with a Japanese and/or South Korean nuclear deterrent, and then established a commission for this purpose. So as to de-link North Korea from the South China Sea, the U.S. should at this point make clear to China that it is weighing supply of coastal anti-shipping missiles to the Philippines and Vietnam. Establishing such a gauntlet to preserve sovereign rights and freedom of navigation is long overdue.

These maneuvers well short of war can rebalance power, instill caution, and stabilize the increasingly volatile Western Pacific, as well as contribute to stability elsewhere. A cost-benefit analysis objectively applied will so depress the value to China of a rogue North Korea that China should find common ground with us in coordinating action and point of view. The choice need not be between capitulation and war, silence and bluster. But only if the United States decides upon carrying a bigger stick and speaking more softly.

Mr. Helprin, a senior fellow of the Claremont Institute, is the author of “Winter’s Tale,” “A Soldier of the Great War” and the forthcoming novel “Paris in the Present Tense.”


Rudradev
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 17 Aug 2017 02:56

Too little, too late?

"Leaks" from US intelligence agencies apparently reveal that the window for a "pre-emptive" war to stop NoKo from acquiring nuclear ICBM capabilities is now closed. They already have these capabilities.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... kes-215495

In recent weeks, a deluge of leaks has sprung out from the U.S. intelligence community concerning North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. Taken together, the leaks portray Kim Jong Un’s regime as nearing mastery of a nuclear-tipped missile that could hit American soil.

Three separate and critical intelligence assessments have emerged in recent weeks that merit attention. First, the U.S. intelligence community, in consensus, now assesses that North Korea is fully capable of developing compact missile-mountable nuclear weapons. Second, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Geospational Intelligence Agency assess that North Korea has a fissile material stockpile sufficient for 60 bombs today and is producing additional fissile material at a rate of 12 bombs per year.

Finally, the third assessment, which I first reported last week, is that the Central Intelligence Agency assesses North Korea’s intercontinental-range ballistic missile re-entry vehicle technology to likely be sufficient for the delivery of a nuclear device to the United States—meaning it could probably survive re-entry on a normal trajectory and successful detonate that compact nuclear warhead over an American city.

...


Now the fifty crore question from our point of view.

Do these "leaks" consist of factual, legitimate intel that some dissenting operatives of America's spy agencies have chosen to make public?

Or are the "leaks" themselves fake news? Planted by China to foster the illusion that, because KJU's nuke/ICBM program is already off the ground, the US should stop contemplating a pre-emptive war, and instead prepare to accommodate/make concessions to a nuclearized NoKo in ways that ultimately serve China's interests?

In the era of Trump, nobody can be sure.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby partha » 17 Aug 2017 03:24

Press release on Trump-Modi phone call dated Aug 15th has the following statement:

Modi thanked Trump for uniting the world against the menace of North Korea!

I have not seen India issue such categorical anti NoKo statement before. Is this the first? Does this mean GoI has concluded NoKo's a gone case?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 18 Aug 2017 03:35

Read it all.

TUBELIGHT GOING ON IN DC ABOUT THE KISSINGER VIRUS.


What Kissinger Gets Wrong About Korea

http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ ... 12511.html

By Joseph Bosco
August 17, 2017


The physically and intellectually bionic Henry Kissinger is at it again. The former secretary of state recently published an article in the Wall Street Journal casually titled “How to Solve the North Korea Crisis,” perhaps his 12th such piece offering essentially the same advice over the past two decades.

Though the article does not live up to its title, the man himself is amazing. While his talented staff no doubt helps in periodically churning out learned pieces on current world events, Kissinger, now in his 90s, still manages to shuttle between Washington and Beijing to pass messages and offer geostrategic wisdom alternately to American and Chinese leaders. He has done this for nine U.S. presidents and for every Chinese ruler since Mao Zedong.

In his many writings and speeches addressing North Korea, Kissinger always gets the danger right:

"The long-term challenge reaches beyond the threat to American territory to the prospect of nuclear chaos. ... Asia’s nations are already under threat from North Korea’s existing short- and intermediate-range missiles."

And, again with good reason, he invariably laments the failure of the international community to resolve the issue:

"For more than 30 years, the world’s response to North Korea’s nuclear program has combined condemnation with procrastination. Pyongyang’s reckless conduct is deplored. Warnings are issued that its evolution toward weaponization will prove unacceptable. Yet its nuclear program has only accelerated."

His indictment of the “world” certainly applies to the dozen or so countries that, by action or inaction, have been instrumental in enabling or indulging North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. These include the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council as well as Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Libya under Moammar Gadhafi, Syria, Yemen, and a few others.

But Kissinger glosses over China’s critical role in supporting Pyongyang’s blatantly illegal weapons activities. On this fundamental point, he has been consistently faulty in his analysis and derelict in his responsibilities as probably the world’s most influential expert on U.S.-China relations.


From the inception of North Korea’s nuclear program with Chinese technology acquired through A.Q. Kahn’s network in Pakistan, through the decades of Beijing’s logistical, financial, and diplomatic support, Kissinger has offered one rationalization after another in China’s defense. His 1,400-word article, while explaining yet again why Beijing’s fear of regime collapse in Pyongyang accounts for China’s reticence, has nothing to say about its active participation in fostering the buildup of the nuclear and missile programs.

Indeed, the history of Chinese-North Korean collaboration contradicts this statement of conventional wisdom -- a statement recited not just by Kissinger but by every U.S. administration he has advised on North Korea: “China shares the American concern regarding nuclear proliferation; it is in fact the country most immediately affected by it.”

Both parts of the sentence above are demonstrably wrong. China has repeatedly spread dangerous and illegal technology directly to North Korea, and through it to a network of rogue states. It has been not only a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction, but a proliferator of proliferators. Moreover, it has refused to join more than 100 other nations in the Proliferation Security Initiative, which provides for the interdiction of nuclear materials and missile components.


As for Kissinger’s odd statement that China is the country most directly affected -- North Korea’s nukes presently target South Korea, Japan, and the United States, not China. Still, he asserts: “Heretofore, the administration has urged China to press North Korea as a kind of subcontractor to achieve American objectives.” (My emphasis.) But hadn’t he just told us that Beijing shared the denuclearization goal?

His warning against U.S. last-resort pre-emptive action is something Chinese President Xi Jinping will welcome: “Beijing, even if it temporarily acquiesced, would not long abide an American strategy of determining by itself outcomes at the very edge of China’s heartland, as its intervention in the Korean War of the 1950s demonstrated.”


America acting by itself? For decades, U.S. policymakers have bent over backwards to get China’s cooperation so Washington will not have to act alone. As Kissinger acknowledges:

"[O]wing to an inability to merge the key players’ objectives -- especially those of China and the U.S. -- into an operational consensus[,] American demands for an end to the North Korean nuclear program have proved unavailing."

Adding insult to injury, Beijing likes to portray the North Korea crisis as an American problem, to be solved by Washington. Contrary to Kissinger’s suggestion that U.S. unilateralism would be irresponsible, if President Trump concludes that China cannot or will not restrain North Korea, and that military action is therefore necessary, Beijing will bear a major part of the responsibility for that decision and its consequences.

Moreover, Kissinger fails to elaborate on what exactly China’s objectives are and how they differ from the “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” that Washington has long sought. He ignores the possibility that the perennial North Korea crisis has actually served China’s strategic interests as a major diplomatic distraction and resource diversion for the West. It has enabled China to posture as a responsible international stakeholder and a good-faith negotiating partner entitled to some deference on other issues such as currency, trade, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.

Kissinger offers this insight into Beijing’s negotiating strategy with Washington: “China’s incentive to help implement denuclearization will be to impose comparable restraints on all of Korea.” He conspicuously fails to note that the United States unilaterally withdrew its tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in the early 1990s as a show of good faith -- at the same time that China began its covert support for North Korea’s nuclearization.

On the way forward, Kissinger writes: “Since denuclearization requires sustained cooperation, it cannot be achieved by economic pressure.” Yet, the Trump administration’s leaning on China seems to have accomplished more cooperation in six months than was done in the previous three decades of Western pleading with Beijing -- even if it is still inadequate.

All in all, the Kissinger piece seems to provide more moral and political fodder for the negotiating position of China than for that of the United States. Just as Beijing deploys its unique position of influence to press for U.S. concessions to Pyongyang, Kissinger uses his unique influence to press Washington for concessions to Beijing.

The Trump administration has a better idea: Continued pressure on Beijing to address the regional security crisis North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles present now, and clear warnings to Pyongyang for its continued provocations. The protracted and complex multilateral negotiations Kissinger envisions will be appropriate only once Pyongyang comes to the negotiating table and commits to serious denuclearization. Ultimately, learning from the German model, a reunified, democratic Korea should be the world's goal.

Joseph Bosco served as China country director in the office of the secretary of defense, 2005-2006. He is a fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies and a senior associate at the Institute for Taiwan-American Studies. The views expressed here are the author's own.


Yayavar
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Yayavar » 18 Aug 2017 03:48

Good find. Hopefully a lot more have been inoculated against the said virus ...

UlanBatori
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Aug 2017 07:11

Helprin for all his grand words, is arguing for an expensive and useless arms race, but still capitulating to a nuclear-armed NoKo and an arrogant China.
The only way to a US victory is to destroy the NoKo regime using massive force.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Aug 2017 07:12

deleted duplicate
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 Aug 2017 01:24, edited 1 time in total.

ramana
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 18 Aug 2017 22:05

Ravi Rikhye has written a short note on China's aims in the Pacific Ocean and how it already has achieved the first part.
The piece will come in Swarajya magazine this weekend.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 19 Aug 2017 05:00

ramana: Will respond here re: ur comment on the China thread about Bannon exit. Bannon was ***NOT*** a friend of India - remember his comment about "culturally inappropriate" ppl leading Silicon Valley? The bugger is an out-and-out white supremacist. His antipathy to China comes mainly from there, not from any US nationalism/strategic vision. That interview came across completely confused about strategic direction: he was arguing for accepting NoKo as P-7 and basically kneeling b4 lizard while ranting about trade deficit.

It should be totally the other way round: free trade, but total crackdown on NoKo and on PRC military bullying. Bannon had no clue about that. His brand of elephants are **NOT** willing to crack down on PRC.

Hopefully Kelly is a different type. Spk softly, but carry a big mijjile etc. Remember what I told u about 6th coujin vijiting 5-walled Palace and seeing a dartboard in a 5th/6th floor office? I think they have no illusions: they KNOW that PeeAllSee is enemy #1. Not going to be bothered by minor things like whether WarMalt CEO is happy, b4 giving "fire" orders to the military.


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