Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

India - South & North Korea Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48148
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 01 Dec 2017 23:55

UB, A couple of years ago Robert Gates said of all problems, NoKo is intractable. You can Google it.

However I think it will involve US, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea at a minimum. India is outside factor.


Korean unification provides a mechanism for de-nuking NoKo.
China does not like Korean unification as its a looming threat.

China has to take the NoKo nukes and that will add to its stock.

So US and Russia have to supervise the de-militarization.

NoKo fears regime change and attack by US singly or in alliance.

So China and Russia have to guarantee the security of this regime.

NoKo needs economic investments
China, Japan and SoKo will have to invest here.

Now why would China and Russia agree to all this? What is their self interest?

Russia needs free hand in Ukraine.

China I don't know but they have stated their goals of First Circle (South China Sea), Second Circle ( Pacific), and Third Circle( Arctic Route to Europe)

Why would US agree to all this?

First of all US has to realize this is 21st century Cuban missile crisis.
And there is not Soviet Union to take back the nukes.

Secondly unlike Castro, Kim Young Un has the launch codes.

So its a Mexican standoff where everyone loses.

Where does India stand?

I think a denuked NoKo is a good thing for India.
And hence should support every which way it can.

What else?

I think Pakistan is a good goal.

Baluchi Independence, Sind integration , Pakjab and K-P Independence

CPEC roads in PoK on lease to China.

We are seeing the unraveling of colonialism.

Korea was an Imperial Japan Colonization project.

Thanks for listening.

Dipanker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2949
Joined: 14 May 2002 11:31

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Dipanker » 02 Dec 2017 01:23

De-nuking of NOKO will only happen if their nukes are genuinely owned by China (otherwise NOT) and the US is willing to pay the price China wants. I am not sure China will just settle for some circumpolar sea routes to Europe. It already has trains running to Europe. It can just keep doubling/quadrupling those tracks. China's goal is to establish the dominance of the middle kingdom, be it in the next 25/50/75/100 years, it will play the game to achieve its goal. In nutshell no short term de-nuclearization of NOKO makes sense from Chinese perspective.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 01:40

The upshot of all that is that war-now is the US' best bet. At least a 75% chance of getting away with a complete denuclearization and decapitation, that leaves Chinese H&D in tatters, Korea reunified under US-Japan umbrella, and Russia basically keeping fingers from being burnt. I do think Russia will move along the coastal rail line and take over the north-east of NoKo. Also control the mouth of the river(s) there. Unobstructed Russian takeover of that part will be the price US is willing/happy to pay for Russian abstinence. If China goes to war to protect NoKo, Chinese binjnej will suffer far more and H&D won't be really saved, unless China also invades SoKo. Unlikely, IMO. US is likely to wipe out Chinese naval fleet.

Trump has to give the order now.

chola
BRFite
Posts: 1746
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby chola » 02 Dec 2017 01:49

^^^ Yes! Hopefully it’ll be mainly an air campaign (from land and sea) taking out the artillery and nuke installations. No likee heavy slog of ground war like Vietnam or the 1950 Korean War.

Can’t wait to see! Too many false starts this year, I want to see fireworks!

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 02:34

Dipankar:
I am not sure China will just settle for some circumpolar sea routes to Europe. It already has trains running to Europe. It can just keep doubling/quadrupling those tracks.


The train takes 11 days and can transport something in the order of a few hundred containers -- a single container ship can carry 12000 containers in about as many days. The train route seems to be mainly to trade with the poorer central Asian countries -- the volumes seem to be too small for EU countries which do significantly larger trading with China. But it showcases China's global trade reach -- very few countries have trade routes to central asia, not least because the market is not very large to be attractive.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 04:57

12,000 containers on ONE ship? :eek: :eek:
Just checked. Largest can carry 18,000 20-foot containers. WOW!!
I see what u mean. A single rail car can carry, what, 4 20-ft containers max? Maybe 2 containers? So 12,000 containers is 3000 rail cars, or 30 cargo trains of 100 cars each.

KLNMurthy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3513
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 13:06

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby KLNMurthy » 02 Dec 2017 06:11

UlanBatori wrote:The upshot of all that is that war-now is the US' best bet. At least a 75% chance of getting away with a complete denuclearization and decapitation, that leaves Chinese H&D in tatters, Korea reunified under US-Japan umbrella, and Russia basically keeping fingers from being burnt. I do think Russia will move along the coastal rail line and take over the north-east of NoKo. Also control the mouth of the river(s) there. Unobstructed Russian takeover of that part will be the price US is willing/happy to pay for Russian abstinence. If China goes to war to protect NoKo, Chinese binjnej will suffer far more and H&D won't be really saved, unless China also invades SoKo. Unlikely, IMO. US is likely to wipe out Chinese naval fleet.

Trump has to give the order now.

Wasn't he supposed to have already done that 1 month or 2 months ago, IIRC?

Trump is not a strategist or real fighter of any kind. Republican congress is running the US now, in effect. Maybe they will pass a declaration of war. I sincerely doubt it myself.

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2569
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Kashi » 02 Dec 2017 06:16

UlanBatori wrote:I don't know about Japan. Except for NBG, missiles are not a grave threat, unless fired in huge numbers. A few missiles lobbed into cities will cause local casualties and infrastructure damage, but look at Saddam's SCUDs - mostly harassment value. NoKo's air force and Navy are non-players. So I see no reason for Japan to suffer damage UNLESS nuke missiles are fired.


The warning time is less than a few minutes. Japanese population and industrial and technical knowhow is concentrated in big urban regions- Kanto, centred around Tokyo and includes Yokohama (the second biggest city in Japan); Kansai- Osaka, Kyoto, Kobe region; Sapporo and Nagoya. Dozens of missiles fired at these spots will effectively set Japan back many many years.

Additionally, the fall of NoKo will lead to a flood of refugees and not just over to China or SoKo. Japan will have to deal with its own influx of boat people. Recently, suspected NoKo boats with dessicated, de-composing bodies have been washing away onto Norther Japanese shores that are closest to NoKo. NoKo fishermen are being increasingly apprehended and rescued in and around Japanese waters.

Just last week a group of 8 NoKo fisherfolk actually managed to land in Akita prefecture and walked up to a house and rang the bell!! They were apprehended, of course, but if fisherfolk can breeze into Japan, so can NoKo saboteurs and refugees.
Last edited by Kashi on 02 Dec 2017 07:17, edited 2 times in total.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 06:16

UlanBatori: A single rail car can carry, what, 4 20-ft containers max? Maybe 2 containers? So 12,000 containers is 3000 rail cars, or 30 cargo trains of 100 cars each.

UBji, OT, but usually one single car rail carries one container -- you will probably see "multi-modal cars" on train wagons in Mongolia, those are containers directly loaded onto a train from a ship, and then onto a truck from the train.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 5896
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby nachiket » 02 Dec 2017 06:19

periaswamy wrote:
UlanBatori: A single rail car can carry, what, 4 20-ft containers max? Maybe 2 containers? So 12,000 containers is 3000 rail cars, or 30 cargo trains of 100 cars each.

UBji, OT, but usually one single car rail carries one container -- you will probably see "multi-modal cars" on train wagons in Mongolia, those are containers directly loaded onto a train from a ship, and then onto a truck from the train.

Rail cars can be double stacked to carry two 53 foot containers at once. So four 20-foot containers is possible.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 06:45

deleted. OT
Last edited by periaswamy on 02 Dec 2017 09:06, edited 4 times in total.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 06:47

periaswamy wrote:
UlanBatori: A single rail car can carry, what, 4 20-ft containers max? Maybe 2 containers? So 12,000 containers is 3000 rail cars, or 30 cargo trains of 100 cars each.
UBji, OT, but usually one single car rail carries one container -- you will probably see "multi-modal cars" on train wagons in Mongolia, those are containers directly loaded onto a train from a ship, and then onto a truck from the train.

You must not know the modern parts of Mongolia. Double-stacked containers, 4 to a railcar (20-foot containers) are now pretty standard on US rails. Indian tunnels, signal trusses and overpasses may not be tall enough, but apparently US rails that can take Amtrak sleeper trains are already cleared tall enough.
Reminds me of a story that a Southern US gentleman once told me:
It came to the attention of Paw in Al Obama that a certain Clarence from neighboring JawJuh, who was not of the proper community, was dating his daughter on the sly. He got mad, but didn't want bring out the noose and shotgun, he just sent his 6' 5", 250lb high school linebacker son Bawb to go and teach said Clarence some facts of life.
Son, take yor red pickup over to Jawjuh on Sarday and teach Clarence a few facts of life!
How do I find Clarence, Paw?
Jest keep yore eyes peeled, son, mebbe they got some signs along their highway.


Bawb got in the red pickup as commanded, loaded the mandatory 2 sixpacks of beer and his chewing tobacker, and took off on I-85 at 85 mph. As he got into Jawjuh, he kept his eyes peeled. Up came the first sign: then the next, then the next.
Bawb got off at the next exit and hightailed it back to Al Obama.
Paw! Sorry but ah ain't goin' after this thar Clarence! Inside 10 minutes ah done seen 3 signs right after the border, All said:
CLeARANCE 14 FEET!
:shock: :eek:
Last edited by UlanBatori on 02 Dec 2017 07:15, edited 2 times in total.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 06:53

But back to the topic. IMO, the only hope is a total surprise jhapad (of course Moscow will know). Lavrov's comment that Russia "would not be taken by surprise" is a bit strange: can't figure that out. Is Lavrov proposing that Russia will provide air cover for Pyongyang? I think DT has already had a long phone talk with Vlad Putin, so this comment was a surprise.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 06:58

Seems to me that Lavrov is just saying that they know where USA's military resources are and that they are watching it all. Assuming that the Trump and Putin are not actively in contact -- given the hostility between COTUS and Senate to Russia, don't think Trump will be in touch with putin -- that news will surely leak to the US press in a nano second, given the number of trump haters in the white house.

chola
BRFite
Posts: 1746
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby chola » 02 Dec 2017 06:58

I thought the Mongol’s chinglish was hard to decipher. His Southern Americanese is worse!

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 07:17

No, long phone call POTUS-Putin was mentioned quite clearly on ABCnews. No big deal there. Actually now CNN is shrieking that Trump talked to Russians about ISIS. Duh! Of course he did, that's how the Clinton-Obama ISIS got smashed.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 07:19

What a cruel cut, cholaji. :(( And here I came specifically to tell you that for once I am cheering for the same festivities as you are.
Now that all of us (except those in SouthAmerica - which is not same as AmericanSouth) are under the kind Nuclear Umbrella of KimJonUn, we can express our opinion on whether to go to war. I say yes, it's a question of fight now or accept slavery under the cheen, and that is no fun, I assure you as a patriotic Mongolian.

Dipanker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2949
Joined: 14 May 2002 11:31

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Dipanker » 02 Dec 2017 07:40

periaswamy wrote:
Dipankar:
I am not sure China will just settle for some circumpolar sea routes to Europe. It already has trains running to Europe. It can just keep doubling/quadrupling those tracks.


The train takes 11 days and can transport something in the order of a few hundred containers -- a single container ship can carry 12000 containers in about as many days. The train route seems to be mainly to trade with the poorer central Asian countries -- the volumes seem to be too small for EU countries which do significantly larger trading with China. But it showcases China's global trade reach -- very few countries have trade routes to central asia, not least because the market is not very large to be attractive.


You should find this Economist article interesting, the volume is not as insignificant: New rail routes between China and Europe will change trade patterns

Also the northern routes between USA/Europe and China/Japan will take 3+ weeks of time, IFF the pack ice melts by 2050: As Arctic Ice Vanishes, New Shipping Routes Open

For comparison the currently used Western (cross Pacific) and Southern Routes (Suez Canal) to USA/Europe takes about 20 - 30 days.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 09:00

Dipankar: OT for this thread. I have moved this to CPEC thread, where this came up earlier.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 09:17

UlanBatori: No, long phone call POTUS-Putin was mentioned quite clearly on ABCnews. No big deal there. Actually now CNN is shrieking that Trump talked to Russians about ISIS. Duh! Of course he did, that's how the Clinton-Obama ISIS got smashed.


Thanks. (Don't have a TV nearby.) Trump and Tillerson have proven smarter than the army of morons in the Foreign affairs committee in US Congress and the US state dept. - Smart move to step out of Russia's way and allowing them to crush ISIS (and also took credit for it without lifting a finger). Glad that Trump is coordinating with Russia, as Lavrov suggested -- shows that he may well get serious about dealing with NoKo. Of course, the tool who is in charge of the US nuclear command making public statements that he will not listen to the US president if he launches an attack on NoKo does not help the US's posturing one bit. Trump is worse enemy to these fools than NoKo.

Don't know what the deal is with the two countries shutting down each other media outlets in their respective countries.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 18:33

The nuclear command guy was simply put on the spot and his comments were misreported. All soldiers in the US swear allegiance to the nation, but swear to uphold and obey the CONSTITUTION, not the President or Party Chief or His Mamma Mia. :) However, the POTUS is the Commander In Chief of the Armed Forces.

So he was asked the question: If you get an order that you believe to be unconstitutional, will you obey the President? Of course he has to say no (otherwise he will be fired for violating his Oath Of Command), but we will present him with options that are within the law (otherwise his ass is grass as they say in Ulan Bator)

What else can he say? That was blared in the CNN/ABC headlines as "General says he will not carry out Trump's orders!" It was plain BS.

If the Jarnail turkeys in the Pentagon and CIA had any spine they would have refused to obey Obama's orders sending them to support and protect ISIS rapists in Iraq and Syria - and leaked those orders to WikiLeaks. So the real answer to the question is that the Generals will find a way to imagine that they are following perfectly Constitutional orders and huff and puff about it. In the case of nuclear war, sitting around being afraid of Congressional committees is rather silly; worrying about raging mobs carrying pitchforks and ropes, roaming the glowing ruins looking for anyone in uniform, or associated with the Govt, is more like it.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 18:43

BTW, Putin/Eleven chess move is showing. NoKo says they will be happy to negotiate: With Russia as Third Party/Guarantor, and due regard for NoKo as a Nuclear Power equal to the YooEss in MAD. Exactly echoes Lavrov's statement. Eleven is silent. Nikki Mohterma is painted as BloodThirsty. I think Eleven has told Little Un to quit tweeting and let Lavrov/RT.com handle his PR. :eek:

I am trying to think of the last time YooEss/UK was this humiliated (forgetting Syria where they "won"). Oh, yeah. Vietnam. And before that, Bangladesh. And b4 that, Suez Canal. Haven't seen something this bad since then. US is cornered unless the strike forces go in.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 02 Dec 2017 18:47, edited 1 time in total.

rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3056
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby rsingh » 02 Dec 2017 18:45

Russia openly declaring that It won't allow any attack on NoKo is so un-Russian. They never show cards that early..........or maybe it is the time.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 18:54

I don't know how they can "not allow" except to veto UNSC resolution (that may have got twisted in translation or context). Unless DT commits the Ultimate Folly and sends ground troops ashore in NoKo, I don't see how Russia can counter combined US-SoKO-Japan air&sea assault. Even a month-long bombing campaign I think cannot bring any intervention from Russia.
China IMO is weaker than US. Everyone talks of US economy collapsing if China pulls its investments. It's the reverse. US and EU may suffer a recession but then rise fast as their domestic manufacturing cranks up like the 1950s. Meanwhile China minus western markets will head fast for implosion. So I doubt if China wants war this time. If NoKo were a stock held by China, it has reached beyond its max allowable Price-to-Value ratio, hain? Downside risk >> Upside Potential. Time to sell and get out, pretend they never owned it.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 20:00

If NoKo were a stock held by China, it has reached beyond its max allowable Price-to-Value ratio, hain? Downside risk >> Upside Potential. Time to sell and get out, pretend they never owned it.


But the risk of backing North Korea is now shared between China and Russia -- it no longer looks as if China is the puppet master of NoKo (even though it surely is), when a third party like Russia now protects NoKo's shenanigans by calling for peace talks. No need for China to get out now, since China can outsource the problem to Russia, making Russia look even more of a villain to the average Bob in US.

Russia has nothing to lose here since US-Russia relations are already rock bottom, but this is not Russia's problem really, so I don't see why this is a smart move by Putin at thism. However, this also serves the anti-putin crowd in DC (which is also anti-trump) to start braying even louder about how Russia is threat No. 1 for the US. China and Xi came out smelling like roses on this one, even though they are the prime instigators. China: 1 US: -1 Russia: -1. US lost this one -- this loss was really quick and exposed US impotence in Asia. But I suppose as long as the US gets to sell weapons to countries over there for a few billion $$$ on a regular basis, it has no intention of getting involved in a hot war over there (and the countries there are not eager to start one either, unlike saudi barbaria and co.)

US stopping trade with China is not going to happen since China has already bought and paid for many democrat and republican congress-critters in the US.

SK Mody
BRFite
Posts: 251
Joined: 15 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby SK Mody » 02 Dec 2017 22:25

Amber G. wrote:
SK Mody wrote:
Not so sure of this 13000 km estimate. If this number is correct, the missile would have to weigh around 85,000 kg by my calculation. I have no clue about the actual weight, but this wikipedia seems to suggest 4000 to 6500 kg. Taking 6500 kg would give a range of about 1000 (+1000) = 2000 km. I added 1000 km as this is the horizontal distance the missile flew.

I'm wondering if this is more of a politically convenient exaggeration as, at the moment, the democrats are threatening non-cooperation with Trump - which might lead to a "shutdown" of the government.

By the way, I used the following quantities, to do a naive calculation:
missile diameter: 1.25 m
Weight: 6500 kg
Drag Coeff of streamlined body in air: 0.04 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drag_coefficient)
Avg speed of missile: 5000 m/s (based on travelling 10,000km from NK to NYC in 40 mins)
Density of Air: 1.225 kg/m3
Height travelled by missile: 4480 km

Then:
0.5 x 1.225 x 5000^2 x 0.04 x 1.25^2 x pi x Dist = 6500 x 9.81 x 4480 x 10^3
gives the distance.

I am not clear how your calculation are done.. I know it is estimate but still a few points..
- Trajectory is an ellipse - not clear what is being assumed in above calculation..(The speed also varies etc along the path)
- Drag Coeff does not matter as much as you think.. after few hundred seconds, the missile is outside most of the atmosphere..(it reaches hundred(s) of Km in just 100-200 secs)
Anyway - In other threads I have put some basics about trajectories which may help in estimation.. (More details, if of interest, can be discussed in Physics or Space dhaga).. rough calculation using most basic physics...(Conservation of Energy - Neglecting Air resitance)
(1/2)m(v_1^2+v_2^2) - G*m*M/r = (1/2)mV^2 - G*m*M/R
and rV_2 =R*V*Cos(B)
Here, m= mass of rocket, M=Mass of Earth, G=Gravitational Constant (6.6*10^(-11)), v_1 is radial velocity, V_2 horizontal component of velocity at point r (distance from center of earth) and B is launch angle and V is launch velocity.. etc..

You can solve for a few unknowns (or estimate) like (m if you know the others like max height reached)..
Bottom line from what we know (if believe the height of trajectory)- range of 13000Km (if the load -m - is same) has very little ambiguity -- and calculation, at least for fairy good estimation is easy - as far as math is concerned.


The calculation is simple, except that I forgot air resistance on the way up, so I equated the potential energy of the rocket at its maximum height to the work done against air resistance if it flew a perfectly horizontal distance at a low altitude - so constant air resistance. So it is simply missing one term on the LHS, the work done against air resistance over the actual distance that it flew. It is not that complicated - and one doesn't have to compute the trajectory of the rocket - unless you are looking for a very accurate answer. My method should give a quick approximate answer - based on the neglecting the variation of g (which you effectively take into account in you formula using GMm/r^2 etc).

Trust me, I understand your points, but this is not the level of detail I was aiming - which was why I was reluctant to finish the computation after I realized my mistake, and moreover I was then intuitively convinced that the 13,000 figure is not a fudge. The point was to analyze a news article and not to do a physics computation.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Dec 2017 23:45

If you achieve a kinetic energy for the warhead equivalent to around 7 to 7.5 km/sec you have enough to reach orbit which means you can even hit yourself after going around the dunia. Looks like this point is now clearly proven. How heavy a warhead etc is a minor quibble. Surviving hypersonic re-entry is another matter. Maybe you reach the same speed coming down, as you achieved. 7000m/s is equivalent to about Mach 21, so yes, they had re-entry conditions for something returning from low Earth Orbit. Whether the warhead survived (without melting/breaking up before reaching around 5000 feet altitude, the preferred height for overland nuke detonation), we will never know because I assume it slammed into the Sea of Japan and is now in tiny pieces on the ocean floor.

periaswamy
BRFite
Posts: 448
Joined: 07 Jul 2017 20:50

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby periaswamy » 02 Dec 2017 23:57

NoKo is liable to place dummies instead of actual warheads on these missiles, no? Little Kim and Eleven Dingding want to create a song and dance about capabilities that can target US mainland, without actually wasting expensive warheads, one would think.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Dec 2017 00:01

Earthquake near NoKo test site
2.5-magnitude earthquake
More like a KiloFa*t

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48148
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 03 Dec 2017 06:42

US showed video of NoKo warhead breaking up during reentry. Ten to fifteen streaks of light in dark background.

Back to drawing board.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Dec 2017 07:45

May or may not be the warhead, hain? Could be the booster as well, since everything must have come down within a small radius. US is going to provoke them by sneering at the test.
Meanwhile the cycle continues, the circle is getting tighter. Haley, now McMasters. Tillerson is apparently in the doghouse, so time for DT to tweet and Little Un to come back with new vocabulary. Eleven has been quiet since the last NoKo test.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Dec 2017 17:54

Conflicting reports today.
1. F-22s known to be in SoKo.
But they are announcing the war games, so they are clearly not too serious.
2."Research underway" to "possibly locate more THAAD sites on US coast", which suggests a timeline that is at least weeks away.

One interpretation is that Item 2 is just in case war is **NOT** launched by Item 1 in very short order.
Brarji, F-35s into action in the valleys next to the DMZ already?

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2833
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Dec 2017 00:33

UlanBatori wrote:Or is it that the show is over with NoKo declaring itself to be a nuclear power?

So there is no threat of war since it is a MAD situation?
US defeat is so calmly assumed?
No sign of DEFCON moving towards war either. Eerie end to American dominance in Asia.


This seems to be the only answer.... Nobody wants a piece of this action and so status quo is maintained. In the meantime enjoy booming stock prices and bit coin.

IOWs, can has been kicked further down the road. US will accept Chinese hegemony in the east. So there, just as predicted.

Unless noko does something Stoopid.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 04 Dec 2017 02:50

Sen. Graham calls for US military families to be sent home from SoKo
Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said he will also urge the Pentagon not to send any more dependents to South Korea. "It's crazy to send spouses and children to South Korea, given the provocation of North Korea. South Korea should be an unaccompanied tour," the South Carolina Republican said on CBS. ''So, I want them to stop sending dependents, and I think it's now time to start moving American dependents out of South Korea." About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in (SoKo)

That's about 70K+ people to send home. 150 C-17 flights to Tokyo/Guam/Hawaii/Manila? 2 weeks.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 04 Dec 2017 03:15

If you were Trump and had decided on war 2 months ago, what would you be doing differently?

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 04 Dec 2017 03:56

Obviously US is trying the full-court press to intimidate NoKo/cheen and force a back-down. But with Putin giving encouragement, NoKo is willing to escalate more. Who blinks first is the question. If cheen REALLY believes that DT will press the button, will they force a backdown I wonder, or let things slide into war. Deployment cost must be going through the roof with 3 carrier groups and the whole armada needed to feed and preen the Eph-35s and Eph-22s and THAADs.
OTOH, this buildup now has many of the characteristics of the 6-month/1 year buildup by Al Quolin bin Powell and Schwarzkopf b4 GW1. I did not expect it to drag out this long b4 the shooting started or backdown occurred. I thought NoKo had frozen things in place with the quiet for the past month or two...

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2833
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Dec 2017 23:46

If the build up i's actually what's happening, which it might very well be what with British and Aussie assets soon to arrive as well and the tie ups like quad, then the this is the right time. The longer the wait, the more likely that the situation will get out of their control.

A preemptive strike in the next year will mean cheen will back off since it will be outgunned Post 2020s, there will be little chance of cutting the lizard down to size. At least that might be Trump's thinking.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48148
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 05 Dec 2017 00:10

UlanBatori wrote:Conflicting reports today.
1. F-22s known to be in SoKo.
But they are announcing the war games, so they are clearly not too serious.
2."Research underway" to "possibly locate more THAAD sites on US coast", which suggests a timeline that is at least weeks away.

One interpretation is that Item 2 is just in case war is **NOT** launched by Item 1 in very short order.
Brarji, F-35s into action in the valleys next to the DMZ already?



Item 2 doesn't make sense.
To reach West Coast requires very high burnout velocity.
This would need the NMD type of interceptor than THAAD. which is a theater defense missile.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8690
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Dec 2017 03:43

Thx. I thought a THAAD with enough warning could launch and hit something pretty high up as the last hope. Haven't they launched from CA and hit something way out past Hawaii? I seem to remember that from when THAAD was first being announced?

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48148
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 05 Dec 2017 04:03

That was something else.


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kumarn, Sharief_siva, Shwetank and 42 guests