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India - South & North Korea Thread

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby pravula » 25 Sep 2017 23:23



Wait, aren't they technically still at war?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Sep 2017 01:36

Beat me to it. This sounds like an open "Kick Me" invitation. The burning question is: WHY are they so intent on starting a war? This has now gone far beyond any "bluff".

But there is more to it than meets the eye, hain? Read US response:
She added that "it's never appropriate for a country to shoot down another country’s aircraft when" the planes are over international waters.


Very interesting choice of words. Long range bombers these days don't carry dumb free-fall "iron bombs". They mostly carry guided missiles, so the attack will be in standoff mode until AA defenses are completely smashed. So NoKo could be panicking now, that B-52 and B-2 bombers from Guam may be cruising 24-7 outside NoKo's 12-mile limit, keeping them guessing and awake.

The FM's "speech" may a :(( :eek: :(( In fact, so may be any number of recent threat escalations. Makes perfect sense if every day they have been tracking 4 or 5 strategic bombers off their coast, 24-7. "Locked and Loaded". Wonder if they have seen any 747s - those would be Boost Phase Intercept planes with lasers.

NOW I feel that I understand things a lot better. I can see hu is actually goading Hu, and the escalation ladder is much more comforting. Meanwhile there is the usual Pre-Shock&Awe demonization about Kim and his regime, that indicates Approaching Liberation. To quote Don McLean:
We burned the city 'cause they wouldn't agree..
That things go better with democracy!
Last edited by UlanBatori on 26 Sep 2017 03:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 26 Sep 2017 03:49

AmberG,

If you have personal knowledge of Dr. Wen Ho Lee, then I will defer to you on the question of his personal culpability. I was only a lowly grad student at the time of his arrest, and you are much more plugged in to the relevant academic community (physics/maths).

However, even if we agree that Dr. Lee himself was innocent, it doesn't seem to take away from the likelihood that W88 designs were indeed stolen from the US by Chinese agents during the 1990s as I surmised.

Here are some excerpts from a referenced dissertation by an international relations student on the matter (hopefully as reliable a source by most standards):
http://www.e-ir.info/2013/08/17/the-uni ... agination/

However, in December 1999 Dr. Wen Ho Lee was arrested for allegedly spying on the United States for the Chinese government. It was later proven that Dr. Wen Ho Lee was innocent. Nevertheless, the analysis of the Wen Ho Lee case shows that there were three guilty subjects involved. The first was the Department of Energy (DOE), for its lack of counterintelligence methodology and interference in the case; the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which failed to be accountable of its own jurisdiction in the case; and Dr. Wen Ho Lee, who as innocent as he was, provoked the whole ordeal with his conspicuous and naïve behavior.

During the Clinton administration, the American government sought to expand diplomatic and trade relations with China, and Chinese espionage against American technology targets received widespread publicity.[2] In 1992, the scientists at the Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratory (LANL), who were following Chinese nuclear testing, concluded a sudden advance in the miniaturization of Beijing’s nuclear warhead, and consequently that China had the basis of a modern nuclear force.[3] According to scientists at LANL, China could have only reached such stage in nuclear development through stealing US secrets.[4] Subsequently, based on the opinion from bomb experts and from the scientists working at LANL, an investigation concluded that the theft of the W-88 nuclear warhead data from Los Alamos had occurred in the 1980s and that there was evidence of continuous Chinese espionage during the 1990s.[5] Since there were a limited number of scientific personnel working at LANL with access to the w-88 information, the investigators quickly focused on identifying who was responsible for the apparent leak.[6]
The information of the investigation led to a particular subject: Dr. Wen Ho Lee, a Taiwanese-American nuclear scientist. The reason for the authorities to focus on Dr. Lee was that, during the 1980s, he had been brought to attention when he was involved in the Tiger Trap investigation. Dr. Lee had communicated with Gwo-Bao Min, another Taiwanese-American nuclear scientist, who had recently lost his job.[7] What Dr. Lee did not know is that Min had been the target of an FBI investigation, for the alleged open-handed sharing of classified information to the PRC concerning data about the W-70, commonly known as the neutron bomb.[8] The FBI started an investigation on Min when it learned that he had been checking out documents from the library at Lawrence Livermore on topics that ranged beyond his responsibilities, and that his activity would spike right before he took a trip to China.[9]

In 1982, Dr. Lee placed a called to Min. He introduced himself as another fellow nuclear scientist and suggested that they should meet, and talk in order to find out who had made reports on him. This was a surprise to Min; and to the FBI agents secretly taping all of Min’s phone calls.[10] It is understandable for the FBI agents to have become suspicious from a random call by another Taiwanese-American nuclear scientist, and it was perhaps inherent to Dr. Lee’s personality traits to be naïve and show solidarity towards a fellow countryman. However, it is preposterous to also suggest that Dr. Lee did not realize the seriousness of his actions when making the call. The wiretappings gave no results; however, in 1983 the FBI confronted Dr. Lee regarding his contact with Min, and he denied all the accusations until the FBI showed him the recordings of the conversations. It was at that point that the FBI resorted to ask Dr. Lee to cooperate with them, and he agreed.[11] Nevertheless, the effort did not pay off and the case remained open, but this operation surely played a big role in directing attention to Dr. Lee in the decade that followed. Furthermore, the Tiger Trap investigation was not the only event that made Dr. Lee a strong candidate for the investigations. In 1994, Dr. Lee surprised laboratory officials when he appeared uninvited at a Los Alamos briefing for visiting Chinese scientist and warmly greeted China’s leading bomb designer.[12] According to a translator at the party, Dr. Hu, the bomb designer, thanked Dr. Lee for computer software and calculations on hydrodynamics Lee had supplied, and Dr. Hu added that the information had aided China greatly.[13] It is evident why the FBI and the DOE fixated on Dr. Lee as the primary suspect. Because of his ambiguous and “naïve” attitude towards security, the sharing of sensitive information, and also due to inefficient work done by the DOE and FBI, Dr. Lee would become the primary suspect in an investigation that would terminate his career as a nuclear scientist and would put him in the front page of newspapers.


So even if Lee himself was innocent, it seems there was certainly a network of Chinese spies taking advantage of the laissez-faire towards China by the "G-2" enamoured US during the 1990s. Lee unfortunately became the scapegoat. Maybe he cannot be blamed for acting in the way he did in the pre-9/11 era (though we should note he did, in fact, plead guilty to mishandling classified data )

All this still does not mean China did not steal the W88 designs. The W70 neutron bomb designs, with regard to which Gwo-Bao Min lost his job for sharing classified information, were proofed by China by 1984. From 1992-95 the Chinese conducted 8 tests of what was suspected to be an aspherical primary warhead for the DF-31. After July 1996 they stopped testing entirely, though it is unclear whether they ever successfully proofed an indigenous TN warhead capable of being deployed on MIRV ICBM.

The fact that PRC could feel assured of credible deterrence without conclusively proofing their own equivalent of W88, suggests that they got the info they needed through other means.

Here is a 1999 report entitled "US National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic of China" authored by a Select Congressional Committee chaired by Rep Christopher Cox.
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-CRPT- ... rpt851.pdf

Volume I, Chapter 2, Pages 90 onwards are particularly informative regarding the W88. Apparently it was a many-pronged effort by PRC and several individuals were involved in spying on US nuclear weapons programs.


Investigation of Theft of Design Information For the W-88 Trident D-5 Thermonuclear Warhead

The Select Committee received information about the U.S. Government’s ongoing investigation of the loss of information about the W-88 Trident D-5 thermonuclear warhead design.

During the PRC’s 1992 to 1996 series of advanced nuclear weapons tests, a debate began in the U.S. Government about whether the PRC had acquired classified U.S. thermonuclear weapons design information. The Department of Energy began to investigate. In 1995, following the CIA’s receipt of evidence (provided by the PRC-directed “walk-in”) that the PRC had acquired technical information on a number of U.S. thermonuclear warheads, including not only the W-88 Trident D-5 but five other warheads as well, the Department of Energy’s investigation intensified. That investigation, however, focused on the W-88 and not the other weapons.

Early in its investigation, the Department of Energy cross-referenced personnel who had worked on the design of the W-88 with those who had traveled to the PRC or interacted with PRC scientists. One individual who had hosted PRC visitors in the past emerged from this inquiry as a suspect by the spring of 1995.

Even after being identified as a suspect, the individual, who still had a security clearance, continued to work in one of the most sensitive divisions at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Division X, which handles thermonuclear weapons designs and computer codes. In this position, the suspect requested and received permission to hire a PRC graduate student who was studying in the U.S. for the summer.

In December 1998, the suspect traveled to Taiwan. Following his return from Taiwan in December 1998, he was removed from Division X.

The FBI initiated a full investigation in the middle of 1996, which remains ongoing. At the date of the Select Committee’s January 3, 1999 classified Final Report, the suspect continues to work at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and continues to have access to classified information.

The FBI investigation of this suspect’s possible involvement in the theft of classified design information on the W-88 warhead and other matters is ongoing. The Clinton administration has determined that further information on this matter cannot be disclosed publicly.

Investigation of Additional Incidents

The Select Committee reviewed one case that offers a troublesome example of the manner in which scientific exchanges in the PRC can be exploited for espionage purposes.

The incident involved the inadvertent, bordering on negligent, disclosure of classified technical information by a U.S. scientist lecturing in the PRC. The U.S. scientist, who was representing a U.S. National Laboratory during a lab-to-lab exchange with a PRC laboratory, was pressured by PRC counterparts to provide a solution to a nuclear weapons-related problem. Rather than decline, the scientist, who was aware of the clear distinction between the classified and unclassified technical information that was under discussion, provided an analogy. The scientist immediately saw that the PRC scientists had grasped the hint that was provided and realized that too much had been said.

The PRC employs various approaches to co-opt U.S. scientists to obtain classified information. These approaches include: appealing to common ethnic heritage; arranging visits to ancestral homes and relatives; paying for trips and travel in the PRC; flattering the guest’s knowledge and intelligence; holding elaborate banquets to honor guests; and doggedly peppering U.S. scientists with technical questions by experts, sometimes after a banquet at which substantial amounts of alcohol have been consumed.

On average, the FBI has received about five security-related referrals each month from the Department of Energy. Not all of these concern the PRC. These referrals usually include possible security violations and the inadvertent disclosure of classified information. The FBI normally conducts investigations of foreign individuals working at the National Laboratories.

The Clinton administration has determined that additional information in this section cannot be publicly disclosed.



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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Sep 2017 07:48

Interesting take on the bomber flights - confirms what UBCN analyzed above - that the bomber flights are to make them lose sleep and reach for the Pepto Bismol.
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has been moving airplanes and boosting defences on its east coast after the United States dispatched B-1B bombers to the Korean peninsula over the weekend, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Tuesday, citing the country's spy agency.
The United States seemed to have disclosed the flight route of the bombers intentionally because North Korea seemed to be unaware, the report said.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service was unable to confirm the report immediately...
(Reporting by Christine Kim; Editing by Michael Perry)

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 26 Sep 2017 08:24

I think brand new untested F-35s will have their hands full dealing with An-2 interceptors

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 26 Sep 2017 08:37

The modern North Korean Air Forcefields a mix of aircraft types. Many are of Soviet-era origin while those of Chinese origin are based in Soviet designs. We record 944 total aircraft in inventory, ranking them 11th in the world. The fighter arm consists of the Shenyang F-5 (MiG-17) (106 units), Shenyang F-6 (MiG-19) (97 units), Chengdu F-7 (MiG-21) (120 units), Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 'Fishbed' (26 units), Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23 'Flogger' (56 units), Mikoyan MiG-29 'Fulcrum' (35 units) and Sukhoi Su-7 'Fitter' (18 units). The Mig-29 represents North Korea's most potent combat warplane. The Sukhoi Su-25 'Frogfoot' (34 units) is the primary Close-Air Support (CAS) platform. A single An-24 'Coke' transport is operated. The bomber arm is led by the Harbin H-5 (80 units) which is nothing more than the Chinese copy of the Soviet Ilyushin IL-28 'Beagle' platform. Among the helicopter fleet is the American-originated Hughes MD500 series (84 units) and the Soviet/Russian Mil Mi-2 'Hoplite'(45 units), Mi-8 'Hip' (41 units), Mi-14 'Haze' (8 units) and Mi-26 'Halo' (4 units) types. The primary attack helicopter model is the Mil Mi-24 'Hind' (20 units). The training force consists of the Shenyang FT-2 (MiG-15UTI) (30 units), Shenyang FT-5 (J-5/MiG-17 trainer) (135 units) and Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-15 'Fagot' (4 units). There are a total of 23 Modern Active Korean People's Army Air Force (North Korea) Aircraft (2017) in the Military Factory.


Those MiG-29s can catch up to both the B-1s and the F-35s and are probably much more maneuverable. Closeup, we all know about the F-35 SmartPhone's single gun. :eek: So I think they are perfectly capable of shooting down US planes if they can see them, visually. Wonder if PAF Thundaars are going on loan.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Chinmay » 26 Sep 2017 10:13

UlanBatori wrote:
The modern North Korean Air Forcefields a mix of aircraft types. Many are of Soviet-era origin while those of Chinese origin are based in Soviet designs. We record 944 total aircraft in inventory, ranking them 11th in the world. The fighter arm consists of the Shenyang F-5 (MiG-17) (106 units), Shenyang F-6 (MiG-19) (97 units), Chengdu F-7 (MiG-21) (120 units), Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 'Fishbed' (26 units), Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-23 'Flogger' (56 units), Mikoyan MiG-29 'Fulcrum' (35 units) and Sukhoi Su-7 'Fitter' (18 units). The Mig-29 represents North Korea's most potent combat warplane. The Sukhoi Su-25 'Frogfoot' (34 units) is the primary Close-Air Support (CAS) platform. A single An-24 'Coke' transport is operated. The bomber arm is led by the Harbin H-5 (80 units) which is nothing more than the Chinese copy of the Soviet Ilyushin IL-28 'Beagle' platform. Among the helicopter fleet is the American-originated Hughes MD500 series (84 units) and the Soviet/Russian Mil Mi-2 'Hoplite'(45 units), Mi-8 'Hip' (41 units), Mi-14 'Haze' (8 units) and Mi-26 'Halo' (4 units) types. The primary attack helicopter model is the Mil Mi-24 'Hind' (20 units). The training force consists of the Shenyang FT-2 (MiG-15UTI) (30 units), Shenyang FT-5 (J-5/MiG-17 trainer) (135 units) and Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-15 'Fagot' (4 units). There are a total of 23 Modern Active Korean People's Army Air Force (North Korea) Aircraft (2017) in the Military Factory.


Those MiG-29s can catch up to both the B-1s and the F-35s and are probably much more maneuverable. Closeup, we all know about the F-35 SmartPhone's single gun. :eek: So I think they are perfectly capable of shooting down US planes if they can see them, visually. Wonder if PAF Thundaars are going on loan.


None of those Fulcrums are going to get close to the bombers or the F-35s. Khan and SoKo will know where the aircraft are located and how many there are. If any of those MiGs takes off towards the bombers, AEW will detect them and escort fighters will kill them.

If there's one thing Khan ensures, its Air Superiority.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 17:00

kapilrdave wrote:Basically, all this is happening because US has lost its deterrence against NoKo by showing its impotence for years. Here US is not alone to be blamed. Or it is the least one to be blamed. More blame goes to SoKo and Japan. They have done zilch about deterring NoKo.

Now china and US have sensed US's inability to act even conventionally against NoKo in the absence of SoKo and Jap's active support. So they are pushing the envelop further and further by day. Here they have got nothing to lose. They are acting sanctimoniously.

Rest assured that China will never venture into the war overtly. They too lack the guts. And they must be scared about their fate in case of war. This is the worst time they can go into a war. *BUT* they are genius when it comes to identifying the opportunity and seizing it. So they are using NoKo to push the envelop further and further while making sure they are out of the target zone. If push comes to shove, they will act sheepish. They might even tow the US line to save their own a**. No fireworks coming from their end rest assured.

Russia is the gutsiest player in this game. They have got nothing to lose. All they hope is that at minimum a few destroyers of US along with a few hundred US soldiers are dead so that there is enough public pressure is built in US mainland to withdraw from SCS. And of course, they will take any more destruction than this for US. More the merrier. They might even throw a number of N tipped ICBMs on US cities in the name of NoKo.

What happens to NoKo is the least worry of china & roos. They will let them get wiped out from the face of the earth. That might even be the best result in favor of ch+ru! Just imagine the world's outrage against the twice user of nukes! The US people themselves will throw DT to dogs for doing this. The whole country will become passimist (like Japan) after this and may never recover from this in future.

As I said earlier, US's task is cut out. It can either pack up and go home or be more aggressive. They don't want a war. They don't even need to go to war as such. All they have to do is to rebuild their deterrence. Their deterrence against NoKo has failed. So now they have to start threatening directly to China for dire consequences. China is a foxy country. They will steal, creep in, lie, obfuscate, backstab, double-cross and do all sort of stuff. But if confronted directly, it will run away as fast as it can. THAT'S where US's exit gate lies from this crisis. Just start declaring China a party in this whole mess, show that the nukes are of China's, manufacture the evidences if there are none, start giving threats through military generals directly to china. And then see how the paper dlagon tows the line.

But, who will bell the chinese cat? I think DT's weakness is deep state which is with china. So the problem lies right there.


Problem will be when and if US actually wins the war. In the name of monitoring / keeping the peace, they might station troops semi permanently after NK gets finished. That will be unacceptable for both US and Russia. thought about that scenario? So, yes, China / Russia will not care much about where NK goes as long as they are part of the buffer zone.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 17:24

sum wrote:SoKo announces 8m civilian USD aid to NoKo

Truely they make UPA look like a hardliner


The current President still wants to try and make love peace to NK. 8 million is much lesser than what he had it mind earlier, BTW.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 26 Sep 2017 20:06

vijaykarthik wrote:Problem will be when and if US actually wins the war. In the name of monitoring / keeping the peace, they might station troops semi permanently after NK gets finished. That will be unacceptable for both US and Russia. thought about that scenario? So, yes, China / Russia will not care much about where NK goes as long as they are part of the buffer zone.

US troops are already there in the region for years. The current drama is to drive out US from the place by whoever from NoKo, Cheen and Roos - or all of them.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 20:26

US troops are in SK. If they go to war this time, they will end up in NK. That will border both China and Russia. The South borders neither.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 20:41

ramana wrote:UB,

One way out is China takes back the TN and missiles etc.
And gets garuntee of no regime change like Castro got.
After that let time take it's course.


Revenge is best dished out cold. Moving on, by pardoning Cheen, is something that'll be unpalatable for the guys. There will be costs and escalations and there'll be a few options which needn't necessarily increase linearly with the others sides moves.

US is caught between a rock and a hard place and it sadly doesn't have good advisers currently - the paucity clearly shows. But they can't be allowed to not act / allow China the upper hand here.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 20:55

I actually don't understand the NK does all this stuff because of China's bidding AT ALL:

A few points to note:

11 hates KJU. He hasn't invited KJU to China and KJU was pretty desperate to go to China ever since he became the Marshall. 11 ignored him and still does. Now, KJU has given up hopes to go to China. Per reports, 11 not just doesn't believe in KJU's abilities but also met him when he was a kid (when he perhaps went to meet his dad, Jong-il). And he has carried over the same impression and has it till date.

There is no love lost between KJU and 11. KJU equally abuses China nowadays - not just US / rest of nations. One just needs to see the media reports from the phoren min / rest of KCNA to see how much hatred they have for the Chinese (in going overboard and also ensuring that sanctions are carried out). Except for the n-test in April, China pretty much embarrassed themselves in trying to influence NK or get them to listen to China. The one thing that NK doesn't do in the case of China is specifically call them out by name.

The deeper than oceans, sweeter than honey terms have simply gone away from the lexicon. Contacts between them have come to a bare minimum. Perhaps a few lower / mid senior level contacts and a little bit of track 2. otherwise, pretty much non-existent contacts.

I am surprised that people still think that NK does China's bidding.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 21:16

pravula wrote:


Wait, aren't they technically still at war?


Yes - and the statement was mostly a rhetoric - NK does a lot of this.

I have been reading the last 5-7 pages of this thread and it seems like a lot out here don't read NK rhetoric / media too often.

In a nutshell: this statement was a re-statement that status quo will continue for a while. No significant escalation yet.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 26 Sep 2017 21:43

Chinmay wrote:
None of those Fulcrums are going to get close to the bombers or the F-35s. Khan and SoKo will know where the aircraft are located and how many there are. If any of those MiGs takes off towards the bombers, AEW will detect them and escort fighters will kill them.

If there's one thing Khan ensures, its Air Superiority.

That was true of Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan when a state of war was declared and a no-fly-zone established.

The US does not simply shoot down aircraft that approach. For example they allowed Chinese Wang Wei to hijack an Orion. What NoKo will likely do is approach close over international waters. The US cannot shoot them down there. The US can warn them away - given the warm relations the US enjoys with NoKo.

But NoKo's threat will make the US more wary. That is where it gets interesting. Every time any US aircraft patrols the area they will have to come prepared for a fight even if NoKo does nothing. Or else they will stay further off and not provoke a fight. The US can provoke an incident any time, and technically so can NoKo. Neither has done it yet.

What could be the reason/s?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 26 Sep 2017 22:39

^ This happens even now. NK and SK never ended the war - it ended in armistice and the countries are still technically at war. NK did shoot down a recce aircraft in '69. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_EC-1 ... n_incident - so the US has been aware of this all the while and its technically not a new info for the US. So, IMO, its business as usual for the US. BTW, NK has tried to intercept and shoot down US aircraft even in the current decade but has never been successful. So, lets understand that its not because NK isnt trying hard enough that aircrafts are safe.

US has been reasonably careful while travelling near NK all the while and keeps its distance and rarely if ever flies in the contested areas and when it did the B-1 bomber flight path, it was the first time it did that far east.

I would actually argue that Russia and China will actually work backwards to ensure that their errant cheesy son doesn't go even more wayward. They are also becoming international pariahs now because of their support to NK and they will need to take that stigma away pretty quickly.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Sep 2017 00:39

Ominously quiet. The crucial week has started. I think US bomber flights will continue until it is time: watch for a nuko submarine to experience an unfortunate accident - maybe it won't be announced. Maybe that is what triggered the shoot-down threat.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby kapilrdave » 27 Sep 2017 11:40

vijaykarthik wrote:US troops are in SK. If they go to war this time, they will end up in NK. That will border both China and Russia. The South borders neither.

Provided US wants to put boots on the hostile ground that has the potential of being their new Vietnam. Big assumption.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 27 Sep 2017 14:43

^ Agree that its an assumption - but it looks like a feasible perspective and thats the only way the US can deter Russia and China.

This is also factored in in the Cheen / Ruskies thinking, I would say - because they are also working on ensuring that NK doesn't have weapons - or atleast not accept nuclear status of NK regardless of whether they have a weapon or not.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Sep 2017 05:23

Dang. Time's a-wasting. Half of Seoul has gone on vacation, and no US attack yet.
Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff says NoKo will have missiles that can reach US, within a very short time.
Then wtf is the point of those trillions of $$ spent on his toys, hain? Might as well announce unilateral disarmament.
Jisko jitna chahiye
Kaat-kaat le jayiye


Although Mr Trump has repeatedly said Pyongyang developing nuclear missiles capable of reaching the US mainland “will not happen”, General Dunford said they will have the capability “soon”.
“We clearly have postured our forces to respond in the event of a provocation or a conflict”, the general said, adding that the United States has taken “all proper measures to protect our allies” including South Korea and Japan.
“It would be an incredibly provocative thing for them to conduct a nuclear test in the Pacific as they have suggested, and I think the North Korean people would have to realise how serious that would be, not only for the United States but for the international community”, he added.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Sep 2017 07:22

Seoul hanbok-shivering
"I think it was the wrong decision for the United States to fly the B-1B bombers near North Korea," Rep. Woo Sang-ho, a former floor leader of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), hanbok-shivered during a radio interview.

Meanwhile..
With North Korea's military provocations increasing the possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula, a luxurious residential-commercial complex in Seoul recently held an emergency session for residents on what to do if war actually breaks out. The managing office of Tower Palace in Dogok-dong, Gangnam-gu, held the session on Sep. 18, where participants were given practical tips on what to do when the complex, one of Seoul's wealthiest communities, issues various warning alarms. Residents learned what to do when they hear an air raid alarm, a poisonous gas alarm or a war warning wherever they are in the city. The residents also learned what to pack for emergencies, including a large backpack, gas mask, sustenance for two weeks, two two-liter bottles of water, a family photo with durable coating, a passport and a little cash.


Also to follow classic American advice on dealing with an incoming nuclear warhead:
Bend over, put ur head between ur legs, and kiss ur mush goodbye

public interest in survival kits and preparation for the possibility of war seem to be picking up. A shipping company based in southern Seoul handed out survival kits to its employees last week as gifts for the traditional thanksgiving holiday of Chuseok... "We have created and are distributing a survival kit with emergency items in consideration of the current circumstances," the company was quoted as saying."There are 15 items including the backpack _ come and pick up your bags from the general affairs team."The backpack contained field rations, a blanket, an ultra-light sleeping bag, a medical kit, gas mask, helmet, portable radio, lantern, compass, raincoat, hot pack and Swiss Army Knife. Interest in survival kits and war preparation is also increasing among the general public.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Sep 2017 07:30


Mort Walker
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 28 Sep 2017 07:49

What if unkil uses neutron bums on NK?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 28 Sep 2017 08:33

Mort Walker wrote:What if unkil uses neutron bums on NK?

Unkil can use any bum but of all unkils bums, my personal opinion is that pinpoint accuracy low to medium yield weapons will be used to try and collapse underground bunkers. Neutron bums will only kill peepals and ground contamination will still be significant. Anything visible on the surface will be killed with conventional weapons.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Sep 2017 08:37

Soko analysts are predicting a limited strike (all conventional onlee). If NoKo tries soosai after that, it's a different story. But limited strike will have to eliminate the nuke/ICBM/IRBM and submarine capabilities plus the regime. IMO regime will run away to cheen or russia.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 28 Sep 2017 09:30

There is no such thing as limited strike or perfect intelligence to take out all the nuke/icbm/irbm , all such strike will risk full war
.... chances are Noko will have its own deep state irrespective of kim dynasty that would prevent any re-unification , even if kim does not exisit NoKo will exisit in its present form.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 28 Sep 2017 09:31

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/stat ... 8415477760

Jim Rickards‏ @JamesGRickards

Met at Illuminati HQ in DC with top China national security advisor. Beijing thinks US won't attack DPRK. I said that view makes war likely.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 28 Sep 2017 09:33

Pentagon scenario of a new Korean war estimates 20,000 deaths daily in South Korea, retired US general says

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/25/korean- ... south.html

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 28 Sep 2017 12:44

Austin wrote:There is no such thing as limited strike or perfect intelligence to take out all the nuke/icbm/irbm , all such strike will risk full war
.... chances are Noko will have its own deep state irrespective of kim dynasty that would prevent any re-unification , even if kim does not exisit NoKo will exisit in its present form.


Yes. its widely believed that the non-believers / second rung is in standby in China. if a decap of KJU happens, the second rung / separatists bla bla will take over. KJU might mostly be allowed to just fade away / slip away. I don't think Cheen or Ruskies see a lot of value in him. Who knows?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 28 Sep 2017 21:17

Shiv, What underground bunkers?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 28 Sep 2017 22:37

ramana wrote:Shiv, What underground bunkers?

Apparently - NoKo is full of underground hideaways. And on the border with South Korea are a few known tunnels and possibly undetected ones - or so I have seen reported - mostly in videos on YouTube.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Gerard » 29 Sep 2017 05:22

Trump misreads North Korea’s sacred dynasty at his peril
Kim Jong-un wants what his father and his grandfather wanted: for the south to recognise the dynasty as the prophesied royal lineage, fulfilling the heavenly mission of Tangun. Then Korea will usher in a new era of peace and prosperity, a beacon for the rest of mankind. Juche is the means to that ends.
...
Trump’s threat of fire and fury is the worst response imaginable to a religious extremist who believes he alone can save humanity – and that the US and her allies are all that stand in the way of Korea fulfilling its own destiny.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 29 Sep 2017 06:09

Gerard in 1951 US also misread the North Korea and the Chinese and were mad with India for being a peace maker.
Saga is well documented in the articles India in Korea.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 29 Sep 2017 11:43

vijaykarthik wrote:
Austin wrote:There is no such thing as limited strike or perfect intelligence to take out all the nuke/icbm/irbm , all such strike will risk full war
.... chances are Noko will have its own deep state irrespective of kim dynasty that would prevent any re-unification , even if kim does not exisit NoKo will exisit in its present form.


Yes. its widely believed that the non-believers / second rung is in standby in China. if a decap of KJU happens, the second rung / separatists bla bla will take over. KJU might mostly be allowed to just fade away / slip away. I don't think Cheen or Ruskies see a lot of value in him. Who knows?


Any decap strike would lead to fullscale war , irrespective of decap strike is successful or not , In Iraq the US had tried to bomb saddam multiple times in depcap strike with complete airsuperiority over Iraq and still did not managed to get him so its a chance thing.

That would also give China and Russia a reason enter into war to prevent millions of refugees to flow into their country and prevent Noko nukes falling into wrong hands.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby alexis » 29 Sep 2017 14:28


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby sum » 29 Sep 2017 14:52

Smoke and mirrors saar

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Sep 2017 21:35

Sept. 29 (UPI) -- North Korea has not suspended activity at its Nampo Navy Shipyard on its western coast facing China, prompting speculation among analysts on Pyongyang's motives for continued work on a second submersible ballistic missile test stand barge.
Writing for 38 North, U.S. analyst Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. points out the barge is a recent acquisition and a possible sign the Kim Jong Un regime is taking steps toward "expanding the [submarine-launched ballistic missile] test and development program to the west coast...The development could indicate North Korea is working on the "future deployment of a ballistic missile submarine with the West Sea Fleet," according to Bermudez. Pyongyang has deployed the submarines and conducted SLBM test launches exclusively in waters off the eastern coast of the peninsula, a move that has provoked South Korea and Japan. A potential future test in the Yellow Sea, however, could anger China, which recently passed new sanctions that would suspend North Korea joint ventures in the world's second-largest economy. The second known barge was first identified in April 2017, and "some construction seems to have taken place during the past five months on the barge's four support superstructures and possibly in the area of the forward hull." Yang Wook, a senior researcher at Korea Defense and Security Forum in South Korea, said if North Korea does deploy a submarine into waters near China, it is likely to test a SLBM that would travel over North Korea territory and land in waters along its eastern coast, News 1 reported. Kim Dong-yub, a North Korea analyst at Kyungnam University, said a North Korea launch from the Yellow Sea could be carried out to signal its dissatisfaction with China. Beijing has taken steps to curtail coal and textiles from North Korea."

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 30 Sep 2017 00:21


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 30 Sep 2017 00:44

War drums
No one wants what may be necessary. But eliminating this menace might be the only way out of the “valley of the shadow.” Speak softly for a while, Mr. Trump, but perhaps not too long.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Amber G. » 30 Sep 2017 03:45

Did not see it here before.. sorry if already posted. A good reference..
(Pakistani nuclear physicist, Pervez Hoodbhoy's interview in DW about his country's "nuclear assistance" to Pyongyang etc..
Pakistan's indirect role in North Korea's nuclear program


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