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India - South & North Korea Thread

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 30 Sep 2017 04:03

I don’t think NK latest test was H-bum and was more likely a boosted fission device. All speculation of course until NK actually does an above ground bum test.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Gerard » 30 Sep 2017 04:08

Do your own estimate of the yield. What do you get?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Lisa » 30 Sep 2017 05:10

My two cents worth,

North Korea does not need a missile to impose an unacceptable loss on South Korea. It can simply truck a nuke to a location on the DMZ closest to Seoul, trigger an explosion and thereafter set off similar charges at the far southern rim of the first explosion to bomb its way to Seoul. No THADD is going to work in this scenario and other than nuking South Korea nothing is going to save Seoul once such a venture is started (it's the only way to stop such a nuke!).

IMO, 5 nukes should get one into Seoul as it is barely 30 Kms from the DMZ. Question is, can Pyongyang find 5+ volunteers to drive such trucks? If it can then South Korea knows that North Korea has it by its testimonials!

For those who remember, it may now make sense why GWB began the process of withdrawing US personal from the DMZ in 2003; the move enhanced the utility of a full spectrum response during conflict.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 01 Oct 2017 21:18

The Trump administration confirmed Saturday
for the first time that it is in direct communication with North Korea over its government's escalating missile and nuclear programs... Tillerson, speaking off-camera with reporters during his trip to China's capital, ... administration is speaking to North Korea "directly, through our own channels." "We have lines of communication to Pyongyang. We're not in a dark situation, a blackout," he said from the residence of the U.S. ambassador in Beijing. "We can talk to them. We do talk to them.".. Trump administration has "three channels" open with the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The top U.S. diplomat also said that broad sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear program "are beginning to have an effect." :rotfl: "We are seeing from what we can observe, and the Chinese are telling us, that it is having some effect, and [the Chinese] have a pretty close view of it," :rotfl: Tillerson said. "But I also think it's the uniform voice coming from the international community. There is almost :?: no one aligning with North Korea on this nuclear program of theirs." The secretary of state described the situation with Pyongyang right now as "overheated" after back-and-forth barbs between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. Tillerson blamed North Korea for the rising tensions, saying that if it would stop testing missiles, that "would calm down things a lot." Following Tillerson's remarks, U.S. Department of State spokesperson Heather Nauert issued a statement Saturday saying:
"U.S. diplomats have several open channels in which we can communicate with officials within the North Korean regime," Nauert said in the statement. "Despite assurances that the United States is not interested in promoting the collapse of the current regime, pursuing regime change, accelerating reunification of the peninsula or mobilizing forces north of the DMZ, North Korean officials have shown no indication that they are interested in or are ready for talks regarding denuclearization." ..... "We are totally prepared for [a military option]," Trump said at a press conference with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Tuesday. "Not a preferred option, but if we take that option, it will be devastating." Tillerson reiterated in Beijing on Saturday that a nuclear-armed North Korea will never be acceptable to the U.S. and its allies. "We have been clear publicly, the region has been clear publicly, that we are not going to accept a nuclear-armed North Korea," he said.

That difficult reality already exists, however, and it will be challenging to convince North Korea's leaders to change it. The U.S. calculated over the summer that Kim Jong Un's regime controlled as many as 60 nuclear weapons, according to an assessment by U.S. intelligence officials cited in a Washington Post report in August, although some independent experts think the number is far smaller. As to the value of negotiating directly with North Korea, U.S. officials as well as America's allies have expressed different opinions. While Tillerson says the U.S. is "directly" talking with the regime, both Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have said now is not the time to engage with the Kim Jong Un's government. Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has remained open to such talks.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Gerard » 01 Oct 2017 21:45

Trump to Tillerson: N Korea negotiations a waste of time
"Save your energy Rex, we'll do what has to be done!" Mr Trump tweeted


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Gagan » 02 Oct 2017 20:40

Lisa wrote:My two cents worth,

North Korea does not need a missile to impose an unacceptable loss on South Korea. It can simply truck a nuke to a location on the DMZ closest to Seoul, trigger an explosion and thereafter set off similar charges at the far southern rim of the first explosion to bomb its way to Seoul. No THADD is going to work in this scenario and other than nuking South Korea nothing is going to save Seoul once such a venture is started (it's the only way to stop such a nuke!).

IMO, 5 nukes should get one into Seoul as it is barely 30 Kms from the DMZ. Question is, can Pyongyang find 5+ volunteers to drive such trucks? If it can then South Korea knows that North Korea has it by its testimonials!

Or they can put it on a barge or a sub and detonate it in the water near seoul harbour. That is inside seoul already.
I am sure there is some smuggling of people from NoKo to SoKo and goods in the opposite direction happening via the sea route

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby shiv » 02 Oct 2017 21:06

NoKo gains zilch by nuking SoKo. Let me stick my neck out here. It is a European (later American) speciality to attack cities and cause civilian casualties. "The east" - will not do it. NoKo will not nuke Soko.

It is the US that the North Koreans hate. The Chinese and Russians have to do absolutely nothing. It is a hatred that arises from within and Russia and China will have to stop short of getting out the popcorn and beer because the Americans are ruthless and NoKo is out of their control. NoKo, China, Japan, Soko and Russia will all be up shit creek if the US nukes NoKo

BTW here is a "Nuclear Bomb Effects" video I made for timepass.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q70u5G-gk1E

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 03 Oct 2017 08:13

Dang! October 2 has come and gone, and all I see is ppl speculating WHETHER NoKo Mig-29 can fa*t on a US B-1 and whether NoKo can issue a hydrogen fa*t in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. What has become of the Tall Fair Roundeyed or Short squat slant-eyed Martial Races, hain? I think the end game here is obvious now: NoKo will agree to build a Trump Towers in Pyongyang and Kim can be judge at the next Trump Miss Universe Beauty Pageant, conducted in Pyongyang. North Korean shore artillery and US fleet will compete in a skeet shooting contest.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Oct 2017 18:33

Look and listen carefully to this video, because it can only have come from one source

And think of why it is being presented in this form. Also suitable for MIL forum because they show why and how they figure out what they are presenting. Concluding remarks are IMO to make people disagree. Also saying that the weapons are not being developed, just being tested.

See the parts about Horizontal Fuelling. Scary. Where do I buy stocks of white cloth to use as flags?




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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2017 15:51

Naranja Bandar's next stunt: "Calm b4 Storm?"
... made seemingly cryptic threatening remarks during a White House gathering of U.S. military leaders Thursday night, saying it represents "the calm before the storm." The president made the comments as he and first lady Melania Trump posed for a group photo with his senior military leaders and their spouses in the State Dining Room of the White House. "You guys know what this represents? Maybe the calm before the storm," the commander in chief said. "We have the world's great military people in this room," he added, as live classical music played. "What storm Mr. President?" one reporter shouted. "You'll find out," the president said. Earlier in the evening, Trump said the group would discuss the most pressing military issues facing the country, including North Korea and Iran. Trump said "tremendous progress" had been made with ISIS, adding, "I guess the media's going to be finding out about that over the next short period of time." He also said Iran should not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. And of North Korea he said, "We cannot allow this dictatorship to threaten our nation or allies with unimaginable loss of life," adding that his administration will "do what we must do to prevent that from happening and it will be done, if necessary. Believe me."

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2017 15:59

More fluff reporting

Despite a dearth of traffic and trade, construction crews are at work on a six-lane highway to the border outside the small Chinese city of Ji'an along the Tumen River, a corridor that could facilitate the rapid movement of tanks and troops. Guard posts, barbed wire-topped fences and checkpoints manned by armed paramilitary troops mark the frontier along the border — signs of concern about potentially violent border crossers or even more serious security threats. China's unwillingness to discuss its plans is likely a strategic choice by the notoriously secretive PLA, but potentially threatens unintended consequences were a major crisis to emerge, experts say. "Each party has its own plans for action in the event of an emergency, but if they act individually without communicating with others, it raises the possibility of misjudgment and unnecessary military conflicts," said Jia Qingguo, dean of the school of International Studies at elite Peking University. "There has long been a danger in this respect. Someone must take control of North Korea's nuclear weapons," Jia said. Coordination is also needed on the handling of civilians, particularly with those international agencies experienced in dealing with such crises, Jia said. Among the refugees may be tens of thousands released from North Korean labor camps who may need medical treatment for communicable diseases and malnutrition. "Refugees are a huge issue that could involve a tremendously large number of people and potentially become a humanitarian crisis," Jia said. Asked about Chinese preparations for a North Korean crisis, defense ministry spokesman Col. Wu Qian offered assurance but no details at a monthly news briefing on Thursday. "Dialogue and consultation is the only effective way to solve the problem concerning the Korean Peninsula, and the military option cannot be an option," Wu said. "The Chinese military has made all necessary preparations to safeguard national sovereignty and security and regional peace and stability."


My question is how are Mexico and Cuba going to handle the refugee crisis. I assume Canada will also be kaput along with Evil Cannibals.

U.S. officials say the Chinese have been reluctant to discuss planning for a major crisis, possibly to avoid offending Kim's notoriously tetchy regime. Partly in hopes of facilitating such discussions, the two sides signed an agreement :rotfl: during a visit to Beijing in August by the top U.S. military officer to establish a dialogue mechanism between their militaries. Tellingly, the visit by Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also included the rare opportunity to observe a Chinese army drill near the Chinese city of Shenyang, roughly 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the border with North Korea. Although Dunford said China didn't appear ready to have conversations about responding to a North Korean crisis, senior administration officials say the sides recognize the need for communication on the matter and the topic has been broached in semiofficial talks between experts.

While Chinese officials have routinely said Beijing would not allow "chaos and war" to break out on its doorstep, official media have hinted that it might not respond if the North made an unprovoked strike on the U.S. or its allies and suffered a retaliation. That ambiguity serves to keep the U.S. and South Korea guessing, possibly tempering their own responses, said Cheng, the Asia security expert.

With 85 percent of North Korea's nuclear facilities located within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of the border with China, special forces from the People's Liberation Army could easily secure those sites without coming into conflict with occupying forces from South Korea and the U.S., said Georgetown University security studies professor Oriana Skylar Mastro.

PLA forces might also cross the border to carry out missions to stabilize refugees, Mastro said. The Chinese military's ability to deal with such a contingency has been honed over recent years through its participation in United Nations peacekeeping missions in Africa :rotfl: and elsewhere, as well as its leading role in responding to earthquakes, floods and other disasters within China. :roll: In the long term, Beijing would want to see a friendly government in Pyongyang to ease security concerns about a unified Korea under the protection of U.S. and South Korean troops, against whom China fought in the 1950-53 Korean War. China has long criticized American military alliances in Asia, seeing them as part of a campaign to stifle its rise as Asia's leading power.

Underlying questions about a Chinese crisis response is the dismal state of China-North Korea relations, illustrated by the lack of regular high-level exchanges. :roll: Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader to visit South Korea before traveling to the North, which he has yet to do as president. Xi and Kim, who has not traveled to China as leader, are not known to be in direct contact, and no senior Chinese official has visited North Korea in almost two years.

Also rarely seen until recently are complaints about China in the North Korean official media, prompted by Beijing's support for U.N. sanctions on Pyongyang.

A recent commentary by the North's official Korean Central News Agency said China's ruling Communist Party's mouthpieces were "going under the armpit of the U.S." :mrgreen: by criticizing Pyongyang's weapons program. It accused party news outlets of "kowtowing to the ignorant acts of the Trump administration."


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2017 22:12

More on the B-1/F-15 caper: S.Korea was on emergency alert.
September 29, 2017 11:03
South Korean warships and fighter jets were on standby south of the land and sea border on the night of Sept. 23, when U.S. B-1B bombers and F-15C fighter escorts buzzed the North Korean maritime border... worried that the situation was touch-and-go.. if North Korea tried to shoot the fighter jets down. South Korean F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets were scrambled at dead of night and began flying patrol near the (DMZ) and the Northern Limit Line, the de facto border in the East Sea. ..Several Navy vessels were on standby south of the NLL. ..Unusually heavy presence at a time when South Korea and the U.S. were not staging any joint exercise. .. Joint Chiefs of Staff here were watching the situation from the underground command and control room in Yongsan, Seoul. But the emergency alert was lifted as there was no response from the North. The U.S. bombers and fighters returned to their bases in Guam and Okinawa without incident.


Meanwhile, another opinion from Korea: Why Are Peaceniks Burying Their Head in the Sand?
Documents shared in a meeting Wednesday between President Moon Jae-in and the heads of the four major political parties specify Oct. 10 and 18 as highly likely dates of more North Korean provocations. Oct. 10 marks North Korea's founding day, while Oct. 18 is when Chinese President Xi Jinping starts his new term in office, so the North may want to draw attention to itself. Appearing before a U.S. Senate hearing on Tuesday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford said it is only a matter of time before North Korea perfects a missile that can carry a unclear warhead to the U.S. mainland. "Whether it's 3 months or 6 months or 18 months, it is soon, and we ought to conduct ourselves as though it is just a matter of time, and a matter of very short time, before North Korea has that capability," he said. Dunford added that the U.S. will deploy 21 more interceptor missiles to defend the American mainland against a North Korean missile attack.

There have also been reports that the U.S. has prepared four different military options. On Monday, Robert Gallucci, a former U.S. State Department special envoy, claimed a military confrontation could happen "within hours" on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's foreign minister has already threatened to shoot down U.S. strategic bombers if they cross over the maritime border separating the two Koreas.

Yet South Koreans are oddly unaffected by the tensions. Moon once again reaffirmed his opposition to stationing tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea when he met the party leaders. Cheong Wa Dae National Security Council chief Chung Eui-yong said the U.S.' nuclear umbrella will be strengthened instead. But nobody knows how effective the umbrella will be when the North's missiles come raining down.

European countries probably built their own tactical nuclear weapons because they were unsure of the protective capability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. At the rate the Moon administration is going, South Korea will probably have to totally entrust the U.S. with its security. History shows what happened to nations that relied so heavily on foreign countries for their security.

While leaving the protection of South Korea's security to the U.S., the president and heads of major parties agreed on their opposition to war and support of a peaceful resolution to the nuclear crisis. The agreement was aimed at increasingly belligerent talk from U.S. President Donald Trump. Looking back at a history marked by numerous invasions, it was not Korea's lack of a yearning for peace that led to its suffering. It was invaded because it failed to protect its borders.

Right now, South Korea is completely incapable of thwarting a North Korean nuclear attack. All the conventional weapons that were displayed on Armed Forces Day are useless against North Korea's latest weapons. Everyone is shouting "peace" and "no more war," but nobody has any answers to how a North Korean attack can be stopped to ensure peace. This is simply childish.

The president's security adviser Moon Chung-in said during a seminar earlier this week that he supports acknowledging North Korea as a nuclear power, just like India and Pakistan. In the past, supporters of the Sunshine Policy of rapprochement with North Korea have claimed the North has neither the capacity nor the intention to develop nuclear weapons. Now these same people are saying the North should be recognized as a nuclear power, but South Korea must never acquire nuclear weapons.

The adviser went even further and said, "Many people told me that we must not allow war to happen on the Korean Peninsula, even if such opposition ends up damaging the South Korea-U.S. alliance." This borders on the delusional. Does the president share his thoughts?


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Oct 2017 22:15

From the "don't worry, most of your ashes will stop glowing soon" lobby

September 20, 2017 12:48

.. Mattis said Monday that the Pentagon has military options for North Korea that do not put Seoul at grave risk. He declined to elaborate what those options may be. The reason the U.S. has so far refrained from launching a military strike against North Korea is because such a move would jeopardize the lives of South Koreans, and the prevailing view has been that the U.S. does not really have any military options. But Mattis' latest comments suggest otherwise. Surgical strikes against North Korean military targets are apparently at the top of the list. Such strikes would not paralyze North Korea's nuclear weapons but could send Pyongyang a serious warning and possibly cripple it enough to be unable to strike back by launching a full-blown war. Other options are cyber attacks and a virtual maritime blockade through naval inspections. Although there is no 100-percent guarantee of the safety of South Korean lives, the measures are highly unlikely to escalate into a full-blown war.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Austin » 07 Oct 2017 12:16

Some facts/numbers as a reminder that the U.S. basically already attempted to "totally destroy" NK in the past.

Image

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Oct 2017 06:14

"Only one thing will work with North Korea"

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump tweeted Saturday that 25 years of agreements with North Korea have failed, "making fools" of US negotiators.
Then he added cryptically that "only one thing will work."
In a pair of Tweets sent Saturday afternoon, Trump said that past agreements with North Korea have all been violated.
"Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid ... hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators," Trump wrote. "Sorry, but only one thing will work!"
Asked by reporters later Saturday about the cryptic tweet, Trump would only say: "You'll figure that out pretty soon."


CNN shrieking is shriller than Shrilleen. :((

Contrast with what Trump offered while he was candidate (June 2016):
TOKYO (AP) — Donald Trump appears to be finding some friends in North Korea.

The presumptive U.S. Republican presidential nominee has been getting good press this week in the North’s carefully controlled media, first in an opinion piece that praised him as “wise” and full of foresight and then Wednesday in the official mouthpiece of the ruling Worker’s Party itself.
Both articles noted how his suggestions he would be willing to meet leader Kim Jong Un and wants to rethink and possibly withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea have created a “Trump Shock” in Seoul.
The state-run DPRK Today in Pyongyang started off the Trump praise on Tuesday by juxtaposing the “wise” Trump with what it called “dull Hillary” — describing leading Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton by only her first name.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Oct 2017 06:20

So I would expect that this is the final(?) tapping of the snake cage to trigger a provocation. 3 carrier groups on station, 4th reported to be on its way, but may already have reached.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 09 Oct 2017 13:44

http://zeenews.india.com/world/britain- ... 48840.html
Britain is ‘preparing' for war with North Korea
The new aircraft carrier will be handed over to the Navy later this year before it undergoes sea trials.
London: As tensions rise between the US and North Korea over the latter's nuclear programme, the UK is quietly readying its war machines in case of a war breaks out, a media report said on Monday.
The British armed forces are apparently preparing for a worst-case scenario and part of that plan is to deploy the UK’s new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth to the region, the Metro News reported.
“We have plenty of ships to send… the Type-45 destroyers, the Type-23 frigates. Britain’s new aircraft carrier could be pressed into service early if things turn south,” the report said quoting a military source.
The new aircraft carrier will be handed over to the Navy later this year before it undergoes sea trials.
Battle preparations have been made as neither Donald Trump nor Kim Jong-un show any desire to calm their war of words.
.....

Gautam

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby sum » 09 Oct 2017 13:49

Errr, a carrier which is to be handed over for sea trials later this year is supposed to be preparing for war?
In 2020?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Oct 2017 17:09

Takes that long for Laioning to reach the Isle of Wight and start the bombardment.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Oct 2017 17:46

Meanwhile, more shivering: This time reported on FOX News!!!! Trumpistan is waving white flag?

But if you read through, the FOX news report says:
Mr Hallam speculated the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) had between 40 and 60 warheads. He also said he believed it will be a while before North Korea hit its nuclear goals. “I’m also inclined to think that it will be a while before they fit a 250Kt warhead to more than one or two rockets,” he said. “So 38 North analysis being based to a large extent on smaller warheads is not unreasonable — but the number of larger warheads will clearly rise over time.” Mr Hallam said it was reasonable to assume Seoul and Tokyo were obvious targets but the analysis didn’t include an ability to strike US west coast cities. “If that ability does exist, then it’s also possible for them to strike Sydney, which doesn’t mean they necessarily will — the highest priority target in Australia, indeed almost in the world — is Pine Gap, critical for US command and control,” he said. “If US cities become part of the equation which they will in a year or two if they are not now, then that body count will be higher.”


Perfect argument to Hit Now Or 4Ever GUBO

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Oct 2017 17:40

Might light a rocket under Boring Johnson's musharraf

London within NoKo mijjile range.
Pyongyang aims to increase the range to 9,000km, according to Morozov, who visited North Korea from 2-6 October. This puts London, which is is 8,657 km from Pyongyang, within the range of the missiles. - Matilda Long
Yahoo News UK10 October 2017


What is this stuff about not having range? NoKo sent something into orbit, right?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Oct 2017 17:46

New spin on how China is not helping NoKo any more (only point of this article)

(Trump has had to deal with an evolved North Korean threat, and he's chosen to fight fire with fire.Thomson Reuters)
President Donald Trump's bold approach to North Korea has horrified many and raised the issue of nuclear war into everyday conversation, but the unconventional tactic may work in a roundabout way, an expert on US-China relations and North Korea says.

Trump's fiery rhetoric a..has "changed the momentum" on the issue, Yun Sun, a senior associate at the Stimson Center, a DC-based think tank, told Business Insider. ..Trump has responded to North Korea with .. threats with "fire and fury." Last month, he stood in front of the United Nations and threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea if necessary. He has leaned more heavily on the prospect of military action than any president before.

While the dictatorship has yet to halt its nuclear program, Trump's rebukes of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and open flirtation with nuclear war appears to have pushed the international community towards action. "If the criteria is North Korea stops its nuclear program, the data so far suggests that North Korea has not been stopped by real or rhetorical threats," said Sun. But, if the criteria is to get China, North Korea's treaty ally and the nation responsible for 90% of its trade, to stop backing Pyongyang, Trump's threats have "worked and potentially could 'work' more," said Sun. "No matter how much people don't like him, he has extracted more cooperation out of China than any of his predecessors on North Korea," Sun said of Trump. So even though North Korea is unlikely to be frightened by Trump's sometimes obvious bluster, the intended audience for the threats may not be Kim. A flurry of countries have cut or curbed ties with North Korea in recent weeks as the Trump administration has stepped up its approach towards Kim, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Oct 2017 18:57

Looks like Vladimir Hackerovich has moved to Pyongyang - or Seoul.
So much for keeping coordinated ShockNAw plans secret. :mrgreen:

According to Rhee, the ministry still has to identify the content of about 80 percent of the 235 gigabytes of data that was stolen. "The Ministry of National Defense has yet to find out about the content of 182 gigabytes of the total (stolen) data," the lawmaker said in a statement quoted in the South Korean news agency Yonhap.
He also said that among the stolen files were Operation Plans 5015 and 3100. The operation plans are classified to the point that South Korean lawmakers from both ruling and opposition parties protested :rotfl: about the superficial briefing received by defence officials when they were introduced in 2015, as reported in the local press at the time. It later emerged that OPLAN 5015 includes a pre-emptive strike on the North’s nuclear and missile facilities, as well as “decapitation attacks” against Kim and the rest of the North Korean leadership. While OPLAN 5015 is seen as a blueprint for a limited war, OPLAN 3100 instead deals with Seoul’s response to possible North Korean localized provocation or commando infiltration. According to Rhee, the hackers have also gained infortmation about state-of-the-art military facilities, power plants and the joint military drills with the U.S. as well as reports meant for U.S. commanders.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 11 Oct 2017 11:58

If the US can provocatively send B-1 N-bombers over the Korean peninsula,why can't Kim-3 send his missiles over SoKo and Japan into the Pacific?
This one-upmanship show is getting to be too dangerous for comfort. pushed to the corner with no escape route,Kim the Young "Un" may decide one fine day that a first strike against SoKo is his best option.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 93846.html
US flies bombers over Korean Peninsula in show of force as Donald Trump discusses strategy with defence chiefs
President meets with Secretary of Defence General James Mattis to plan best approach to rogue state's growing nuclear threat

Christine Kim, Eric Beech an Peninsula in a show of force late on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump met top defence officials to discuss how to respond to any threat from North Korea.

Tensions have soared between the United States and North Korea following a series of weapons tests by Pyongyang and a string of increasingly bellicose exchanges between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

North Korea has launched two missiles over Japan and conducted its sixth nuclear test in recent weeks as it fast advances towards its goal of developing a nuclear-tipped missile capable of hitting the US mainland.

Jimmy Carter 'offers to hold peace talks with North Korea'
The two US Air Force B-1B bombers were joined by two F-15K fighters from the South Korean military after leaving their base in Guam, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement on Wednesday.

After entering South Korean airspace, the two bombers carried out air-to-ground missile drills in waters off the east coast of South Korea, then flew over the South to waters between it and China to repeat the drill, the release said.

The US military said in a separate statement it conducted drills with Japanese fighters after the exercise with South Korea, making it the first time US bombers have conducted training with fighters from both Japan and South Korea at night.

The US bombers had taken off from the Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. In August, Pyongyang threatened to fire intermediate-range missiles towards the vicinity of Guam, a US Pacific territory that is frequently subjected to sabre-rattling from the North.

South Korean and US government officials have been raising their guard against more North Korean provocations with the approach of the 72nd anniversary of the founding of North Korea's ruling party, which fell on Tuesday.

Trump hosted a discussion on Tuesday on options to respond to any North Korean aggression or, if necessary, to prevent Pyongyang from threatening the United States and its allies with nuclear weapons, the White House said in a statement.

Trump was briefed by Secretary of Defence James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford at a national security team meeting, the statement said.

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CIA tried to assassinate Kim Jong-un with chemicals, North Korea says
US and South Korean wartime operational plans, including a plan to wipe out the North Korean leadership, were stolen by North Korean hackers last year, a South Korean ruling party lawmaker said on Wednesday.

Some 235 gigabytes of military documents were taken from South Korea's Defence Integrated Data Centre in September last year, Democratic Party representative Rhee Cheol-hee said in radio appearances on Wednesday, citing information from unidentified South Korean defence officials.

In May, an investigative team inside the defence ministry announced the hack had been carried out by North Korea, but did not disclose what kind of information had been taken.

The United Nations Security Council, which has imposed a series of ever tighter sanctions on North Korea, has banned four ships from ports globally for carrying coal from North Korea, including one vessel that also had ammunition.

The vessels are the first to be designated under stepped-up sanctions imposed on North Korea by the 15-member council in August and September over two long-range ballistic missile launches and Pyongyang's sixth and largest nuclear test.

China, North Korea's main ally and trading partner, has consistently argued sanctions alone will not work, urging Washington and Pyongyang to lower their rhetoric and return to the negotiating table.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby vijaykarthik » 11 Oct 2017 13:37

UlanBatori wrote:Might light a rocket under Boring Johnson's musharraf

London within NoKo mijjile range.
Pyongyang aims to increase the range to 9,000km, according to Morozov, who visited North Korea from 2-6 October. This puts London, which is is 8,657 km from Pyongyang, within the range of the missiles. - Matilda Long
Yahoo News UK10 October 2017


What is this stuff about not having range? NoKo sent something into orbit, right?


They weren't successful, IIRC. That test was a failure.


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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 11 Oct 2017 18:36

Rather under the skirts of Mrs. "T",Theresa not Thatcher! Poor "Little Britain",still trying to punch above its weight and always in the shadow of the US,at its hel like a poodle. For thsi,it is time to bring back the man who knows best how to "poodle" best,Tony B.Liar and his false statements about Saddam's WMDs which could reach London in 15 mts. Now who will say the same about Dear leader Kim-3?

Anyway,the "wag-the-dog" strategy of beleagured Pres. Trump is well on its course,he's ending another N-sub to Korea after his B-1 N-bombers flew over the peninsula. It is only stirring up the level of the NoKo leader's paranoia which he will respond to with another missile test most likely.It would be prudent for him to save his nukes for actual warfare as it may very well come to that. Shares in SoKo and Japanese cos. need to be of-loaded. With Trump on the warpath anything can happen.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/864 ... ne-missile
US moves NUCLEAR SUBMARINE to Korea after Kim Jong-Un missile threats
DONALD Trump has sent a nuclear submarine to Korea amid fears Kim Jong-un may fire yet another missile in the coming days.

By VINCENT WOOD
PUBLISHED: 01:51, Wed, Oct 11, 2017
Mattis on North Korea: US 'must stand ready for WAR'

Kim Jong-un has caused international outrage following months of missile tests – including a Hwasong 14 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the USA.

Now Donald Trump has sent the USS Tuscon, one of the nation's nuclear submarines, to the Korean peninsula in an apparent show of force against the young tyrant.

Officials have revealed the nuclear vessel made port on Saturday, arriving at Chinhae, South Korea.

A statement from US Pacific Command said: "With a crew of approximately 150, Tucson can conduct a multitude of missions and maintain proficiencies of the latest capabilities of the submarine fleet.

"Tucson's crew operates with a high state of readiness and is always prepared to tackle any mission that comes their way."
It comes amid fears Kim Jong-un could fire another missile in the coming days

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On Tuesday officials confirmed Donald Trump had been briefed by his generals on options to respond to North Korean "aggression".

In a statement, the White House said: "This morning President Donald J. Trump met with members of his national security team to receive a briefing from Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford.

"The briefing and discussion focused on a range of options to respond to any form of North Korean aggression or, if necessary, to prevent North Korea from threatening the United States and its allies with nuclear weapons."
After the meeting the US flew two supersonic bombers over the Korean peninsula.

Is Kim Jong-un developing more advanced ballistic missiles?
Wed, August 23, 2017
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un looks on during a visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science
It comes after months of threats and missile tests from the hermit kingdom, who last month tested a missile capable of reaching the continental US.

Donald Trump’s North Korea meeting was held the meeting in the situation room in the White House where US Presidents traditionally hold “war councils” at times of conflict.

The most senior US general recently told the American army to “stand ready” for war with North Korea.

General James 'Mad dog' Mattis warned it is impossible to tell what the future holds for the crisis, but urged US troops to be prepared for a confrontation with Kim Jong-un.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Oct 2017 21:07

Yes, nuke bombers from Guam. With SoKo and Nippon fighter escort. And the second nuclear sub in the vicinity. I wonder how many attack subs accompany each Boomer sub, which is what I find interesting: so DT can sink all of NoKo's subs.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Oct 2017 21:26

(Was going to post item at top of Yahoo! search for news on NoKo. scratch that.. news media are recycling items from long ago to convey impression that something new is happening).

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 12 Oct 2017 03:04

Journalist Dexter Filkins recently wrote an article in the New Yorker about Rex Tillerson. Extensive and seems fairly well researched.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017 ... king-point

Posting some interesting excerpts here from an NPR interview of Filkins relevant to NoKo situation.

From
http://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556863758 ... orea-looms


TERRY GROSS (INTERVIEWER): So what's your sense of how close we're getting to an actual nuclear war with North Korea?

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, I don't know if it'd be a nuclear war, but it would be - it'd be a very terrible war. I remember Secretary Mattis - I was on his plane earlier this year. And he said if - and he's really sober about this. And he said, if there is a war with North Korea, it will bring the worst casualties and the worst bloodshed that any of us have ever known in our lifetimes. You know, that's pretty strong stuff. And I think the - I think here's where we are.

The Trump administration has decided, I think - it's pretty clear - that the prospect of North Korea getting a workable ICBM with a nuclear warhead is worse than the prospect of war. So, I mean - and I spoke to people inside the administration who told me that. They said, we will not allow them to have a working ICBM. It's not going to happen. And we will go to war if we have to. So short of that, what can you do? You can make a deal.

And so the plan - and I think this is what Tillerson has been working very hard on - is to squeeze the North Koreans. And there's basically one way to squeeze the North Koreans, and that's to squeeze China - to squeeze the North Koreans, and that it - because the Chinese economy is kind of - it's the main - it's the only lever, really, to pressure the North Koreans. And so the Chinese have been very reluctant to do that. They're - for a lot of reasons - I mean, the main one is, they don't want to have the North Korean state collapse on their borders. They're terrified of that. They don't want North Korea to have a nuclear weapon, I don't think, any more than we do. :roll:

But so that's the challenge right now, but I think it's also the one means that the White House sees to make a deal is working with China. And that's what Tillerson has been trying to do. So he's been, you know, flying to China. He's made several trips out there, and he's pushing them. We have channels open to the North Korean leadership.
And so, you know, to get back to President Trump, so the - so at the same time that, you know, the diplomats were trying to make a deal to stave off war, the president is sending out these tweets saying, I'm going to - you know, I'm going to annihilate North Korea, et cetera. And I don't think there's any calculation involved in that. I think the - you know, the president is just, you know, firing.

...

Rex Tillerson told you - because you had a chance to speak with him - that he told China that if China and the U.S. don't solve this - if he and his counterpart don't solve this - these two guys - meaning Kim Jong Un and President Trump - these two guys get to fight, and we will fight.

FILKINS: Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty scary.

GROSS: Did he elaborate on that for you? Like, what...

FILKINS: Well, yeah, a little bit. I mean, he essentially meant, look, the way this is - the way diplomacy works and works best is if it's backed up by a threat of force. So when I walk in the room and I sit down with the Chinese, I say, look, you and I can make a deal, and we can, like, sign it on paper. And if we don't, if diplomacy fails, there's going to be a war. And nobody wants a war, so let's do the deal. And I think, you know, that sounds right. Theoretically, that's - and it sounds right. It's just terrifying.

GROSS: Well, it - there seems to really be a game of brinksmanship being played right now.

FILKINS: Yes.

GROSS: And when you say you were told - and I forget who told you this - that if we go to war with North Korea, there will be more casualties than - what? - than...

FILKINS: Any of us know - have seen in our lifetimes. And that was Secretary Mattis.
...


GROSS: He's seen a lot of war, right. So do you have any idea what kind of war he's envisioning if we do go to war with North Korea? And I hate to even utter those words.

FILKINS: Yeah, God forbid. I think there's a lot of different options. And, I mean, I've had some discussions about what those options are. I think they're all terrible. I think that the easy scenario to imagine - I mean, it's a terrible scenario - is the moment the United States strikes North Korea, say. And we're speaking only theoretically here. The North Koreans have at their disposal thousands of artillery rounds that are within striking range of Seoul. And I think, you know, metropolitan Seoul has how many people - 20 million people. And so you can imagine.

So if the leadership of North Korea is, you know, still alive and if every piece of its army is still functioning - any piece of its army's - is still functioning after that initial exchange, then they will fire everything they have at Seoul. And I think that's - you know, that's what's got everybody's attention. The prospect of that is terrifying because the bloodshed would be immense.

GROSS: OK.

FILKINS: And, you know, the numbers that you see are just - they're terrifying. I mean, it's, you know, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of casualties.

GROSS: I'm wondering if you feel any echoes of the eve of the Iraq War right now when President Bush and Saddam Hussein were threatened - threatening each other when President Bush decided to move forward not exactly unilaterally, but not really with the backing of the U.N. either. You know, we had some allies, but it wasn't the full force of the U.N. Do - you covered the Iraq War. You covered it right from the start. So are you feeling any similarities now?

FILKINS: Well, the - I think the difference is, in Iraq, it was basically the United States. I mean, we'd - you know, Great Britain came along, but - and the United States was utterly determined to take down Saddam, you know? Come what may, we're going to do it. And so there was this kind of, like, heedlessness involved. You know, we're - we are going to do this. And the whole world was kind of freaking out.

It's different in North Korea. I mean, I do feel like I have a - whenever I sit down and talk to somebody in Washington about - who knows the North Korean situation, I get these butterflies in my stomach because it feels like these are two - you know, North Korea and the United States, they're both people who are - at the moment who are not willing to compromise. And that means, if that doesn't - if they don't reach a compromise, we're going to go to war. And I think the prospect of war is very, very real.

And so in that sense, I'm feeling, like, pretty nervous about it. But I think that in - the difference between now and, say, in Iraq in 2003 was that I think the whole world is pretty worried about North Korea. You know, it's a kind of crazy, unpredictable regime. And I think that the whole world is united in wanting to stop North Korea from acquiring an ICBM.

So to get back to what I had said earlier, I think the Trump administration - I spoke to somebody about this at some length - said that we - the reason why we cannot allow North Korea to acquire an ICBM is, think of the consequences. They would - they might use one. Oh, they'll start threatening Japan. They'll start threatening South Korea. They'll threaten the United States. They - it will probably prompt, or could prompt, the Japanese to reversing, you know, decades of being a - having a very, very small defense force. They may have to go nuclear. So it could destabilize the whole region.

You - there's no evidence that North Koreans would ever think twice about selling their nuclear technology to another country. So all of those things are terrifying as well. And so what the Trump administration has concluded is that this - or that scenario that I just painted - we cannot allow that, and we will not allow that under any circumstances.


GROSS: So if there is a war with North Korea, as it's possible there will be, is there any scenario that you've heard in which the U.S. uses a nuclear weapon against North Korea?

FILKINS: Yes. Yes, I've had that conversation. It's terrifying. I mean, it's just not even something that you want to think about. But I will tell you about a conversation I had with a very senior person. He said, the problem, if the North Koreans, say, are 2 inches away from acquiring the capability - you know, a workable nuclear-armed ICBM - and we need to stop that, how do we do that? We kill the leadership, basically. We take out the whole leadership - Kim Jong Un, everyone around him.

Now, how do you do that? Because, you know, do we know where they are? Are they all scattered? And that's where the nuclear weapon came in in the conversation that I had. So in other words, you decapitate the regime, and maybe you can avert the kind of horrible consequences that we've talked about with the North Koreans raining artillery shells down on greater Seoul. But that's pretty terrifying. I think that option has been discussed. I think it's on the table. That's what was related to me. But, I mean, it's pretty terrifying.


GROSS: How do you use a nuclear weapon to decapitate the regime?

FILKINS: God if I know. I don't know. I mean, because - I don't know. I mean, I think that the idea, at least in the discussion that I had, was that that would be the only way that you could guarantee that you would basically obliterate the leadership, wherever it was. The problem with that, obviously, is that you're going to end up obliterating a lot of other things as well. And so I - you know, you - there's no such thing as a surgical nuclear strike.

And so I think if - you know, if nuclear weapons came into play here, the consequences would be horrifying. And I don't - you know, I don't - this is what - I think this is what keeps people awake at nights. I mean, everybody's thinking about these options, and there are no good options. They're all bad - all of them. But the nuclear one, of course, is conceivably the worst.





Also of interest, perhaps, beyond the NoKo issue:

GROSS: Now, you write that the only person who's actually, like, made some progress on North Korea is Nikki Haley, who succeeded at the U.N. in getting some economic sanctions against North Korea. Then you write that Tillerson really hates Nikki Haley. How come?

FILKINS: Well, you know, I don't know - I don't know specifically why they hate each other, but, you know, in any administration, the egos are pretty big. You know, they're - these are very motivated, driven people with a great sense of self-importance. And I think Tillerson has had a difficult time. And Nikki Haley has done pretty well in New York. She has successfully gotten two rounds of sanctions on the North Koreans. And, you know, she speaks publicly a lot whereas Tillerson has kind of been much more reluctant to speak.

So her star is brighter right now and so I think there's, you know, I think there's some resentment there. And then if you go kind of deeper into the, you know, Washington never-ending kind of cocktail party chatter, it's that if Tillerson leaves, you know, Nikki Haley is going to - is all ready to step right into that job. And so does Rex Tillerson feel Nikki Haley, you know, nipping at his heels?
You know, maybe, but yeah, they clearly don't like each other too much.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Gerard » 12 Oct 2017 05:01

North Korea Backgrounder - The Jamestown Foundation
We at the Jamestown Foundation are pleased to introduce this backgrounder on North Korea. Draw- ing on an array of sources including Korean-language media, satellite imagery analysis and NGO databases, we have compiled what we believe are a number of core facts about the country: its political system, military, economy, agricultural system, demographics and geography. Our goal is not to com- prehensively cover North Korea, but rather to highlight important facts in a way that allows both experienced analysts and those less familiar with the country to quickly find information essential for decision making or analytic judgments. In particular, we focus on what is described in analytic com- munities as “normative factors”—baselines for analysis like geography, times for planting and harvest, politically important dates—or other characteristics that shape behavior, and regulate how a state behaves. Such factors are frequently overlooked in discussions of state behavior. In the case of North Korea, where there is a tendency to ascribe behavior not to a rational nation-state but to the actions of an unstable dictator, attention to such factors is even more important, as they provide a baseline for judging if actions, be they rocket launches, military parades or harsh rhetoric are in fact noteworthy.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Oct 2017 06:42

North Korea foreign minister: Trump has '*it the *ick' of war

NoKo no discuss nukes
“Our principled position is that we will never agree to any negotiations during which our nuclear weapons will become the subject of talks,” Ri said...“The government of our republic has stated numerous times that any attempt to squeeze our throat and stifle us, which are made under the pretext of fulfilling the so-called ‘sanctions resolution,’ are tantamount to an act of aggression and war and that in response we won’t give up the use of our last resorts,” Ri told TASS.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Oct 2017 06:53

The most rational course of action for the United States is to adopt a deterrence posture as this nation did after the Soviet Union acquired nuclear weapons in August 1949. :roll:
However, the Trump Administration seems determined to look at potential military options to use against North Korea. Yesterday, on October 10, Trump met with former Nixon Administration Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. And earlier today, October 11, Trump met with his national security team to receive a briefing from secretary of defense Jim Mattis and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford. “The briefing and discussion focused on a range of options to respond to any form of North Korean aggression or, if necessary, to prevent North Korea from threatening the United States and its allies with nuclear weapons,” reads a statement from the White House.
Meanwhile, U.S. Air Force bombers continue their drills off the North Korean coast pushing up the ante.
A Russian language version of the interview with Ri Yong-ho can found here, while an English version can be found here. Text is very similar, but there are some subtle differences due to the imprecise nature of translating from Russian to English (for example—the word фитиль can be translated as either “wick” or “fuse” while воинственным could mean either “bellicose” or “belligerent”).

Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for the National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Oct 2017 06:55

I am surprised that in all these months there has not been a single incident between the US and NoKo. No patrols getting shot at; which means no aggressive patrols, no SF commando raids, no NoKo fast attack boats firing a couple of torpedos at US ships. Wonder why DT doesn't order a couple of incidents. That would test whether there is real fear induced, leading to a deal, or escalation pemitting a louder jhapad.
Seoul 10-day holiday came and went: wonder how many ppl shifted old relatives/kids to safer parts (can they be let out of school?) SoKoreans are smart and well-informed ppl, they would take sensible precautions. If u were a Seoul resident, what would be your calculation of the probability of war?

What if US hits, say, 2 missile bases and a nuke reactor facility? Will Kim commit soosai by artillery barrage against Seoul? ( triggers wave of tactical nukes to wipe out all the artillery emplacements, plus decap strikes against Pyongyang) So I would think not. My guess is that the first US strike will trigger Chinese evacuation of remaining NoKo nukes.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby sum » 12 Oct 2017 07:37

UlanBatori wrote:Seoul 10-day holiday came and went: wonder how many ppl shifted old relatives/kids to safer parts (can they be let out of school?) SoKoreans are smart and well-informed ppl, they would take sensible precautions. If u were a Seoul resident, what would be your calculation of the probability of war?
.

Sir you can be rest assured that 0% of Seoul guys did such a thing and maybe 1-2% of the people actually are even thinking of anything related to NoKo


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