India - South & North Korea Thread

[UlanBatori]

From NATURE mag.

Eight-and-a-half minutes after North Korea set off a nuclear bomb on 3 September, a second burst of energy shook the mountain where the test had just occurred. More than a week later, researchers are still puzzling over what caused that extra release of seismic energy — and what it says about North Korea’s nuclear-testing site, or the risks of a larger radiation leak. Monitoring stations in South Korea have already picked up minute levels of radiation from the test.

A number of theories have emerged to explain the second event, ranging from a tunnel collapse or a landslide to a splintering of the rock inside Mount Mantap, the testing site. But seismologists can’t agree and say that they may not get enough evidence to pin down the cause.

“This is an interesting mystery at this point,” says Göran Ekström, a seismologist at Columbia University in New York City.

The nature of the first seismic signal is clearer because it matches the profile of a bomb blast. The US Geological Survey (USGS) determined the magnitude of the seismic event associated with the nuclear explosion at 6.3, whereas the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in Vienna calculated it at 6.1 on the basis of a separate analysis. The explosion was many times the size of past North Korean tests and was the largest seismic signal from a nuclear test ever detected by the international network of seismic monitoring stations used by the CTBTO.

(this was set up after cheen Lop Nor H2bum? Also, Frogs at Mururoa when they set off 5 or 6 H2 bums just b4 SeeTeeBeeTee?) Or just massively bigger?

The second event came 8.5 minutes later and registered as magnitude-4.1, reported the USGS. The agency suggested that it was associated with the test and may have been a “structural collapse”. The possibility that the smaller shock was caused by a tunnel collapse inside the testing site has dominated discussion in the media. But Paul Earle, a seismologist at the USGS, told Nature that was just one possibility that was raised in the immediate aftermath of the explosion. The USGS, he said, was “basing that on previous nuclear tests of comparable size that had a collapse”.

Possible signs of a collapse are visible on satellite images taken of the testing site, according to an analysis released on 12 September by 38 North, a partnership of the US-Korea Institute and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.

But the seismic signal doesn’t match what would be expected from a collapse, says Lianxing Wen, a geophysicist at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. A collapse would produce mostly vertical movement of rock, but his own unpublished work suggests that the seismic clues point to a large horizontal movement as well, something he says would be more consistent with a landslide.

Although the satellite data do show a lot of landslides on Mount Mantap, other researchers argue that they could not have caused the magnitude-4.1 event. Much larger landslides, such as at Bingham Canyon mine in Utah in 2013, haven’t produced seismic signals close to that size, says Ekström.

He also argues that the seismic signals he has seen do not match the pattern expected from a landslide. Such an event would have longer-duration signals (matching the time that it takes rocks to fall down a slope) and fewer high-frequency waves (because the energy in a landslide is released more slowly than in earthquakes or explosions) than what was recorded in the North Korean event. He says that a collapse cannot yet be ruled out. The crater formed by a collapse sometimes does not become visible at the surface until much later.

Another theory comes from Ekström’s colleague at Columbia, seismologist Won-Young Kim. Kim rules out a collapse, a landslide and the possibility that there was an earthquake triggered by the explosion. He says that the seismic event was probably a rock burst — a violent fracturing of rock around one of the many tunnels under Mount Mantap. That could explain the frequency of the seismic waves, which were lower than an earthquake rupture but higher than a landslide, as well as the other features, he says.

The characterization of landslides and rock bursts could help researchers to assess how unstable Mantap is. Even if the whole mountain isn't going to collapse, as some have warned, subtler signs from landslides or rock bursts could indicate whether a major section of the mountain above the tunnels may have cracked. If so, that could lead to contamination of the mountainous area by radioactive material. “It is difficult to imagine how to contain that, given the altitude and remoteness of the place,” says Kim.

Stations outside of North Korea have started to detect radiation from the latest test. On 13 September, the South Korean Nuclear Safety and Security Commission in Seoul announced that several ground- and sea-based monitoring stations downwind of the test site had detected the radioactive isotope xenon-133, an indicator of a nuclear test. However, no other isotopes were detected, preventing a determination of what type of bomb was used. It also did not indicate whether radiation is leaking from the site at a higher rate than expected, said Cheol-Su Kim, the head of the environmental radioactivity assessment department at the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety in Daejeon, South Korea.

Based on South Korea's ground-based network of reporting stations, overall radiation levels there ranged from 50–300 nanosieverts per hour — no higher than the country's background level.

With reporting by Mark Zastrow

Nature
doi:10.1038/nature.2017.22618

UBCN reports that a huge store of IEDmubaraks stored for shipment to the Moderate Child-Beheading Rebels in Syria and Iraq, accidentally went off in sympathetic detonation.

[UlanBatori]

cholaji:
Right now if u want entertainment, Boko Haram is about the only game in the world.

[UlanBatori]

Cheen perspective (obviously)

If Donald Trump blinks over North Korea, he is doomed. If he doesn't, we could all be
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

But it told me one thing: The ENTIRE LINE OF NOKO TESTS IS BOGUS: it is all carefully calibrate cheen strategy: Read below and think about it:

Code: Select all

On Thursday night it fired yet another intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan, out to a distance of almost 4,000km and a height of nearly 800km. This was 1,000km further than the previous missile, which went 1,000 further than the one before that. A lower trajectory could have put it close to the Western seaboard of the USA. 

So the US mainland is now within striking range of Kim Jong-Un. And it is safe to assume North Korea now has a reasonable number of very effective ICBMS. 

They are not developing missiles: they are pushing the limits to see if US will strike - or blink. This suggests that the whole cheen detergent is line up in NoKo.
I think US should do an all-out conventional strike, on schedule. There is no alternative.

[UlanBatori]

US bares teeth

Washington (CNN)Multiple top Trump advisers said Friday there are military options available for dealing with the North Korea crisis, despite some experts saying that there are no good options for the region.
Both national security adviser H.R. McMaster and US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley stressed during a White House briefing on the United Nations General Assembly that President Donald Trump did have military options to stop North Korea.
"For those who have said, and been commenting about a lack of an military option, there is a military option," McMaster said. "Now it is not what we would prefer to do."
Haley said that the UN has "strangled their economic situation at this point" but the results of that are going to "take a little time but it has always tried to take effect."

"What we are seeing is they continue to be provocative, they continue to be reckless. And at that point there is not a whole lot the security council is going to be able to do from here when you have cut 90% of the trade and 30% of the oil," she said. "So, having said that, I have no problem with kicking it to (Defense Secretary James) Mattis because I think he has plenty of options."

[chola]

cholaji:
Right now if u want entertainment, Boko Haram is about the only game in the world.

There are plenty of muzzie conflicts if we want cavemen entertainment. ISIS in Syria, ISIS in Iraq, Saudi on Houthis in Yemen, etc.

No, I want some regulars on regulars action. Proper warfare, you might say. I don't want to see some camel humping muzzie blowing himself up among wimmen and children. That's not warfare, that's terrorism and cleaning that shit up is nothing but COIN.

I want wide scale warfare between armies and navies with crisp uniforms and ordered ranks. Not some drone killing some subhuman beardos.

[UlanBatori]

er... in this case the crisp uniforms get soiled at Instant 1, when the order comes: "Launch!" After that there is only flash, blast and miserable slow death by radiation. Nausea, throwing up, blood.. smell.. never mind, no nose left to smell. A few "lucky survivors" with advanced cancer, blind, starving, thirsty..

OK! Back to checking how much the stock market rose today.. as they used to say in Londonistan during the Gleat Prague:

Eat, drink & b merry, 4 tomorrow u die!

Must have been like this in the Last Days of Pompeii as well.

[ashish raval]

American congress will sanction any country supplying fuel to Noko.

The smuggling of fuel into NoKo across the Yalu and Tumen rivers goes on unabated.

What will the omnipotent American Congress do about that?

Good point!! Never thought that Chinese would blatantly play such a game. I guess you will be photographed ever 5 seconds. Once Congress is convinced they will approve sanctions and China could implode and default..their Ponzi scheme should come to end one day anyway

[Cosmo_R]

A propos of nothing. In 1978, I was invited by SBI to outline how the Eurodollar syndication market worked at the time including how we priced risk. Presented what we'd done for Korea Development Bank and an entity called Samsung.

Was more than surprised when I got flak during Q&A when many newly minted socialists (trainees) attacked on our focus on SOKO v NOKO which they thought was a better commercial credit risk. They believed that banks should give money away.

[Singha]

Our first tv a bajaj in a wood cabinet had its picture tube imported from noko i think. I peeked through holes in the back.

[Singha]

http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017 ... ret-state/

[ramana]

UB the CTBT monitoring station was setup much after China and France completed testing. In fact even after India and Pakistan.

My hypothesis is the second event with 4.1 mB was either just the primary or a damaged second device.
Either would be just the primary. That would explain the odd signature.

Why dont they publish the seismograms of second event instead of scratching heads?

[Austin]

Refrain From Issuing More Threats' To North Korea, China Tells US

[A_Gupta]

What North Korea has today, Pakistan gets tomorrow.

[UlanBatori]

ramana: That's the second time you have mentioned that, so let me point out that I have no clue:

Either would be just the primary.

Note the timing mentioned:

The second event came 8.5 minutes later and registered as magnitude-4.1,

What is the "primary"? I thought that was the fission device that compressed the gas in the fusion part?
Why would it take MINUTES for the primary's signature to propagate after the fusion earthquake has already reached? Or how can any explosive device survive inside the thermonuke cauldron for several minutes before exploding?
Curious, because it reminds me of a paper I read long ago on why "they" were researching 220GHz imaging.

To see through the mushroom cloud of a thermonuclear explosion and determine whether there was enough of the target still surviving to be worth a second thermunuclear strike.

As for 4.1 quakes, they must be fairly common all over. In Malloostan, those are felt fairly frequently and there is no knowledge of any serious "fault" in the neighborhood. Must be same in Californstan, with all the active faults all over. So why are they not mentioning that this may have set off a small fault ("rock-burst" seems to be the same thing?)
The other explanation is that they set off a tactical nuke test (artillery shell?) in the general vicinity under cover of the general excitement. If so, that is by far the deadlier demonstration in terms of conveying a message.

[UlanBatori]

Chinese call for US surrender:

Regarding Trump's visit to China in November to beg to be allowed to surrender:

Zhao Tong, a North Korea expert at Beijing’s Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, said it was too early to tell how the issue might affect Trump’s visit. “Many things can happen between now and then. New developments can emerge that seriously change the calculations,” he said.
However, Zhao said it was almost certain Kim would continue his campaign in the lead-up to Trump’s arrival. “We are likely to see more tests, maybe including another nuclear tests … It won’t take long before the North Koreans really feel the pain [from the recent UN sanctions]. So I think the North Korean strategy is to use this very short time before they face real problems domestically, to completely conclude their nuclear and missile programs, to achieve all of the key technologies … So they are likely accelerate and to conduct the tests that are most important for them and then quickly soften their position and come to diplomacy.”

So current "thinking" is that once NoKo has reached parity with US in MAD, US and NoKo can negotiate as equals, under the tutelage of Big Blothel.
If u look carefully above, "Deep State" is showing its hood.

[UlanBatori]

And to reinforce that, Pax Sinica is predicted as usual:

First time I am seeing a Photoshop of a whole runway between Gleat Readel-ul-Binocurals and his mijjile.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed to reach the country's nuclear goals, according to state media.
The aim was to establish "equilibrium" of military force with the US, the KCNA news agency quoted him as saying.
Mr Kim's comments come after North Korea fired its latest missile over Japan - in what is being described as the country's farthest-reaching test.
The move split world powers who united behind new UN sanctions against North Korea just days ago.
"We should clearly show the big power chauvinists how our state attain the goal of completing its nuclear force despite their limitless sanctions and blockade," Mr Kim was quoted as saying by the KCNA.
He also said North Korea's goal was "to establish the equilibrium of real force with the US and make the US rulers dare not talk about military option for the DPRK".

[UlanBatori]

Re: photoshop. Look at same event from different photoshop artist:

[Austin]

Video of Sept 15 launch of the Hwangson-12 missile .

[Austin]

Reminds of old Prithvi Bm launches Red Fuming nitric acid Hypergolic Fuel at work

[ramana]

UB I am saying they are two tests.
First big one 5.7 to 6.3 MB.
8.5 minutes later a second test with 4.1 to 4.2 MB

This second one so am saying was the primary going off, either a confirmatory or a damaged secondary didn't go off.
Damaged due to the shock from first one.
That's why seismic signature is weird.
The seismologists should let weapons talk and not give silly statements of rock burst etc.

[UlanBatori]

I find it difficult to imagine TWO thermonukes being tested in close proximity, 8.5 minutes apart (most of what Kim n Co do & say is difficult to imagine, so nothing new there). Agree that it was most probably a second weapon test, and agree that if NoKo wanted to test two thermonuke designs, this was the best opportunity for it and they may not have another test site. And that there was no interest in the science of it since that was established at Lop Nor. But on the last part - wouldn't the secondary be of lot tougher construction than the primary? So my suspicion is that the second shock was exactly what it was supposed to be - a tactical nuke. Weird signature may have been due to damaged environment.
But now comes the next Nuclear Threat.

1) Either there is a sustained stream of US threats that is not published in US media (or Russian since I check RT.com). Or the NoKo-Cheens are intent on forcing DT's hand, which suggests that they think they have the upper hand. Oh, wait! maybe it suggests the exact opposite like at Doklam? Maybe a double bluff?

Any threat at this point, IMO is way more than "sufficient justification" for the US to launch a pre-emptive attack. So why are the NoKos doing this? The **HAVE** a thermonuke detergent. Isn't it time to shut up? So are the cheens betting on a very public humiliation of DT a la Dubya and Wrong-Way Wong Wei (R.I.P.)? As in "North Korea forced the US to back off and leave the South China Ocean"?

End of the hegemony of the Running Dogs of the Paper Tigers of Capitalist Imperialism?

[UlanBatori]

Oh, BTW, look at the tanks in the above link. Each has 2 cute little red Mao Brand Fire Extinguishers fixed to the front of the turret. A guy coming out of the hatch can reach it. What's this for? Molotov cocktails?

[UlanBatori]

chilling threat from Mohterma Haley

US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said President Donald Trump's "fire and fury" comment last month about North Korea's nuclear program was not an empty threat. In an interview that aired Sunday with CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union," Haley emphasized that Defense Secretary James Mattis has an array of options to destroy the nation of some 25 million people. If the US exhausts diplomatic options on North Korea, the US military would "take care of it," Haley said,

"We wanted to be responsible and go through all diplomatic means to get their attention first," Haley said. "If that doesn't work, General Mattis will take care of it." Haley warned a war would mean the destruction of North Korea. "If North Korea keeps on with this reckless behavior, if the United States has to defend itself or defend its allies in any way, North Korea will be destroyed," Haley said. "And we all know that, and none of us want that."

[UlanBatori]

Chinese teeth start showing at The Guardian. Read the starting sentences.

Even a man as self-deluding and indifferent to truth as Donald Trump is unable to claim that his threats have cowed North Korea. Five weeks ago, he warned of “fire and fury”. Since then, Pyongyang has launched three missiles – two over Japan – and tested another nuclear bomb. Trump continues to wave his stick, talking on Friday of “effective and overwhelming” options, despite widespread warnings of the immense risk that they would bring catastrophe, not least for US allies and service people.

Allies fear he is genuinely willing to take military action....

blahblablahblah..
Smaller shifts in policy look more plausible, but not any time soon: with a crucial party congress to next month, Chinese decision makers are preoccupied with domestic politics. And they are sceptical about the tendency to rely on sanctions as a cure-all.

Above all, Beijing still sees this as primarily a US problem, requiring a primarily US solution. And it is right. Pyongyang wants a security guarantee from Washington.

"Security Guarantee" == "Surrender".

[UlanBatori]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

...Nikki Haley said on Sunday the U.N. Security Council has run out of options on containing North Korea’s nuclear program and the United States may have to turn the matter over to the Pentagon.
“We have pretty much exhausted all the things that we can do at the Security Council at this point,” Haley told CNN’s “State of the Union,” adding that she was perfectly happy to hand the North Korea problem over to Defense Secretary James Mattis.
As world leaders head to the United Nations headquarters in New York for the annual General Assembly meeting this week,

So far, exactly on schedule for Sep. 30/Oct. 1 per UBCN.
Office Holidays 2017

September 30: Saturday. Holiday for public sector in SoKo, IIRC, though maybe not for private sector.
October 1: Sundin
October 2: Extra temporary holiday for public sector
October 3: National Harvest Festival. Day Before Chuseok. Also, founding of Korea by Tangun in 2333BCE
October 4: National Harvest Festival. Chuseok.
October 5: Harvest Festival. Day After Chuseok.
October 6: Substitute day for Chuseok in case of shelling from North on Chuseok.
October 7: Saturdin.
October 8: Sundin
October 9: Hangeul Day. Korean Alphabet Day. Reinstated as holiday in 2013.

[ramana]

UB, In 1998, India tested two devices separated by one kilometer simultaneously. Here the test is after about 8.5 minutes. The P-5 have tested multiple devices in proximity and in time.

[Aditya_V]

Well may SOKO and Japan are silently taking up measures to protect thier population. Looks Beijing might have short itself in the foot by Banning travel to SOKO as they cannot get thier people on the ground to see what is happening in Soko, it is possible Noko could be attacked at the end of this month. NOKO has given enough justification to US by openly threatening and firing a few long range BM's.

Is this an October suprise?

[sum]

Honestly, SoKo is doing literally nothing other than the usual "life goes on" story.
But then one never knows

[Aditya_V]

Sir , would they announce anything, but 10 public holidays gives them a chance to get as many of their public away from their offices in Soeul, go on holidays abroad etc.

[UlanBatori]

The Rich in Seoul go to Japan, China, Hawaii or CONUS or Oirope or Singapore to shop. Interesting experience to sit at Seoul airport and watch the happy crowds coming off the planes from those places, carrying several shopping bags from Designer Shops. Like watching desi baboon retarning phrom Phoren with whisky bottles. Others take families down to the warm beaches on southern island resorts or the coasts (Daejon?)

[UlanBatori]

BTW, confirmation that rocket fuel for NoKo comes from - where else? cheen.U have to read carefully. These papparazzi seem to be Finlandized/ dhimmified when it comes to writing anything directly pointing the finger at PeeAllSee

[UlanBatori]

Hardball?

US ‘moving tactical nukes’ to North Korea border taking WW3 tensions to new high
TACTICAL nuclear weapons could be moved on to North Korea’s doorstep, the US defence secretary has shockingly confirmed...To fight back against the tubby tyrant, South Korea has asked the US to move tactical nukes into the Korean peninsula.

US, SoKo stage bombing drills

pair of US B-1B bombers and four F-35 jets flew from Guam and Japan and joined four South Korean F-15K fighters in the latest drill. The joint drills were being conducted “two to three times a month these days”, Defence Minister Song Young-moo told a parliamentary hearing yesterday.

Brarji will be delighted: the Hangar Rajnis are actually being put to some use, though they are protected by B1Bs.

Russia and China have staged naval exercises ..aimed to “consolidate partnership and practical co-operation between the two militaries” and were not aimed at any one country.

But that has little credibility except for rescue operations. I can't see Russ-cheen getting into a naval bissing contest against the yoo-ess-Japan navies just to save fatboy. Or to ensure cheen domination of the nbd.

[UlanBatori]

But see this:

Arseny Sivitsky, director of the Belarus-based Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, indicated Russia was sending a message to the West.
“Russia is trying to show Europe and the United States that it is ready for a full-scale war and that is why we should all sit down and talk about geopolitics on Russia’s terms,” he said.
According to Xinhua, the Russia-China drills are expected to wind up on September 26.

UBCN is not the only entity that can read a calendar, apparently.
If you look at the picture there of the Vladivostok neighborhood, the exercises are destroyer-based fast rescue runs very near the shore in the presence of gunfire.

[abhijatT]

UB ji , you might be right in your assessment that second 4.1 magnitude test might be a tactical nuke test.

http://m.indiatoday.in/story/india-seek ... 51016.html

"External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj deplored North Koreas recent actions and stated that its proliferation linkages must be explored and those involved must be held accountable," the ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar told reporters at a news conference here

[UlanBatori]

US has practically announced introduction of tactica nukes to take care of the NoKo artillery threat. Revelation that UDMH rocket fuel comes from cheen says that ICBM fleet also comes from there. Strange to have liquid-fuelled ICBMs... doesn't that give warning time? Or is it storable inside the raakit for weeks? DT speech at UN seems to be a deliberate step up the escalation ladder, calling Fat Boy suicidal and threatening to destroy the whole nation, along with B-1/F-15/F-35 sweeps. Why F-35, Brarji? Seems to be a clear message there but I can't figure out what. Surely Trump does not expect that NoKo will take out all prepared runways?

If it was air superiority/ protecting the B-1B, I would have expected F-22s, hain? Both are radar-stealthy, so I guess it will be an intial F-117/B-2 raid since those are not on display.

If tac-nukes are used, we are one step from a Glowing Future.

[UlanBatori]

Al Jazeera:

Analysts say US president's fiery language against North Korea and its leader distances the prospect of negotiations.

Duh!

[UlanBatori]

UBCN is trying to game the NoKo-US tamasha, but gaming fails beyond H-Hour+8. If it gets beyond that and the regime is still able to press buttons that launch things, then all bets are off. Unless H-hour is the sinking of a NoKo sub which can remain secret and suspected to be "accidental". Say another wayward destroyer ran into the sub. And then another, and another, until the regime retaliates against a ship. All this can take a few days.

What happens if the regime is decapitated inside 8 hours? Most probably, Kim will escape to China. Next leaders may sue for peace immediately, in which case there will be a ceasefire, and UN-observed, US-NATO-dictated removal and destruction of all nuclear and missile facilities. Regime may be permitted to have only defensive/law enforcement weapons.

But at this stage I think cheen will intervene and demand that facilities be taken over by PLA, not UN or US/NATO. May draw the red line and forbid US/NATO boots in NoKo. This would be defeat, since the missiles are anyway cheen maal, so DT may not agree unless there is a verifiable agreement that no such weapons or fissile material cross the Yalu river into NoKo.

What will Putin do? Something unpredictable, I am sure. Maybe take over a disputed island north of Japan. Probably, move a couple of divisions in from Vladivostok and secure the entire coast. Also, cross into NoKo slightly inland, and take over that river (I forget the name, it offers a navigable waterway deep inland). May even push out the PLA from there.

**********************************************

How wrong can things go?
The UDMH story and the 4.1 tactical nuke theory brought home to me that NoKo is completely a puppet show, it is only a Missile Cushion for cheen. The "gradual" testing buildup of Noko's "capability" is all sham, they have the full capability since Lop Nor 1968.

If I were Eleven, and I had already invested in all those mijjiles and nukes, I would also give NoKo the full means (radar, Space, aerial) to locate and hit the US fleets. Twenty missiles for each carrier, 100 more for each carrier group. One of the two carriers, and maybe 4 destroyers may be hit and disabled/sunk. If the other carrier is also somehow taken out of commission, US fighter cover and SLCM force are kaput. That would degrade US capability except for the long-range bombers from Guam and CONUS, and fighters from Japan and SoKo. I don't know if PLAF will bother with hitting SoKo, I think a rain of missiles from cheen will do the job of hitting all SoKo airbases and naval bases, starting with the THAAD installations.

IRBMs would rain in on Guam, Okinawa and Japanese air & naval bases and missile stations. Direct strike on CONUS with a nuke is still unlikely because that would bring the sure response of a massive thermonuke rain on NoKo, from the massive US missile force.
But with Guam out of commission, and Japan putting out fires, Putin would move in from the north, and cheen would take over all the SCS islands, oil fields etc. with BOG (boots on ground). Displacing either would mean US taking on WW3 with Russia and China simultaneously, unwinnable. Putin has 100% credibility in both air and ground attack since Ukraine, Georgia and Syria.

So this would be a massive conventional war loss for the US. Once the US Pacific force is annihilated, Taiwan becomes very exposed, and the Liaoning task force will appear on the wrong side of Taiwan's defenses with full freedom of the seas. End of Taiwan as an independent nation. Now SoKo faces utter isolation: I think the govt will kneel before Eleven in a flash.

[Austin]

Al Jazeera:

Analysts say US president's fiery language against North Korea and its leader distances the prospect of negotiations.

Duh!

Ah so Mental Disturbed Donald Trump at UN telling Paranoid Kim of North Korea fame that he would completely destroy North Korea which means like killing few people like onleeeee 20+ Million.

Must be the most encouraging word spoken on NoKo Diplomacy so far to resolve the crisis

[Philip]

Western propaganda (against Russia and China) or fact? There is no definite proof at all and highly unlikely for Russia to do so.. What can't be ruled out is that some Ru and Chin scientists have been freelancing in NoKo for lots of whampum. It's how China acquired a lot of Sov. tech after the USSR collapsed. India failed to seize the opportunity and recruit hundred of these folk who were desperate for any job. Nevertheless,the acquisition of an SSBN by NoKO would dramatically up the survivability of Kim-III.as he well knows that his piddly little stockpile of N-weapons is of use almost 99% against SoKo and Japan,that is if he considers China and Russia as non-violent (to NoKo) buddies. The big Q is has he been able to master a small N-reactor for a nuclear sub? Massive achievement if he has.More likely that someone,most definitely the Chinese have given the details to him,since such a programme must've been started at least a decade ago,long before this current crisis broke out.

Perhaps this "expose" or report is really aimed at another audience,that of Japan and SoKo (even OZ),both of whom have powerful lobbies demanding that they build their own N-subs and even go nuclear.Fake news about NoKo's N-sub capabilities would only increase pressure upon those who want their own N-subs.

Now if NoKo is developing its own N-sub,then Pak also must be under suspicion of an N-sub programme with help from China.Apart from demanding an expose of the NoKo Paki WMD relationship,India must also demand an expose into the Chinese WMD proliferation both with NoKo and Pak!

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-n ... -WW3-fears

WW3 fears as ‘Russia and China HELPING Kim Jong-un build nuclear submarine’
NORTH Korea is building a nuclear-powered submarine with the help of Chinese and Russian engineers, according to a Pyongyang insider.
By Tom Evans / Published 19th September 2017

The world has sdeen forced to watch in horror as Kim’s rogue state persists with its nuclear missile programme.
The tubby tyrant has repeatedly threatened to use his nukes if pushed by the United States and its allies.
And as nearby South Korea asks Donald Trump to move tactical nukes to the border, it has now been claimed the North is working on a high-tech submarine.

Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin and President XiGETTY
WW3 FEARS: Kim Jong-un is reportedly receiving help from Russia and China
Inside North Korea: Forbidden pictures of the secretive state.

“Chinese and Russian engineers have been lending their expertise to the DPRK”
Pyongyang insider
Japanese newspaper Sekai Nippo reports that an “anonymous but informed source familiar with the North Korea situation” claimed that Kim’s scientists are preparing a sub to be operational by 2020.

Such a vessel would symbolise massive progress for the hermit kingdom’s navy – which currently maintains a fleet of 50 to 60 diesel-electric submarines.
And more ominous still, the source went on to claim that Pyongyang’s scientists are working with help.

“Chinese and Russian engineers have been lending their expertise to the DPRK at North Korea’s Nampo Naval Shipyard, in North Korea’s manufacturing capital,” the source added.

Is North Korea going to NUKE Yellowstone supervolcano?
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South Korean Marines train on Baengnyeongdo Island as tensions mount with North Korea. Kim Jong Un has continued threats of nuclear weapons testing leading US President Trump to threaten possible military resolve.

As tensions mount with North Korea mount South Korean Marines take part in a training exercise

As tensions mount with North Korea mount South Korean Marines take part in a training exercise South Korean Marines train on Baengnyeongdo Island South Korean Marines train on Baengnyeongdo Island As tensions mount with North Korea mount South Korean Marines take part in a training exercise As tensions mount with North Korea mount South Korean Marines take part in a training exercise South Korean Marines train on Baengnyeongdo Island
Analysts have suspected for some time that the North is interested in a new sub for this reason – despite the US mainland already being in range.

Yesterday, US defence secretary James “Mad Dog” Mattis confirmed he had discussed moving tactical warheads to the border with South Korean defence minister Song Young-moo.

Song and South Korea are believed to have pushed for the introduction of missiles, calling it an “alternative worth a full review”.


Pyongyang Metro: Could this be where North Koreans shelter from NUCLEAR WAR?

During the blitz, the tunnels of the London Underground where famously used by Brits fleeing exploding Nazi bombs. North Korea's capital city Pyongyang has a its own metro network, opened in 1962. Could this be where North Koreans would shelter from NUCLEAR WAR?
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Commuters make their way into Puhung subway station in Pyongyang AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Commuters make their way into Puhung subway station in Pyongyang
Commuters make their way into Puhung subway station in Pyongyang A commuters exit a metro station in Pyongyang A tourist takes a selfie during a visit to a subway station in Pyongyang o 18-year-old student Cha So-Yon poses for a portrait in a subway station of the Pyongyang metro A woman sits aboard a train carriage at a subway station in Pyongyang Commuters leave a subway train platform of the Pyongyang metro A woman and child stand in a Pyongyang subway station
Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon, Mattis confirmed the discussion had taken place but would not comment on if or when the nukes would be moved.

The rogue nation’s nuclear arsenal is held under the control of the Strategic Rocket Forces, just outside Pyongyang, where some 1,000 ballistic missiles are believed to be stored.
Many of the shorter-range weapons can reach between 30 miles and 300 miles.

US General: Trump faces biggest challenge with "clever" NK
Play Video
Inside North Korea: The pictures Kim Jong-un doesn't want you to see

Since 2008, photographer Eric Lafforgue ventured to North Korea six times. Thanks to digital memory cards, he was able to save photos that was forbidden to take inside the segregated state
Taking pictures in the DMZ is easy, but if you come too close to the soldiers, they stop you A rare example of an undisciplined kid in North Korea.

The bus was driving in the small roads of Samijyon in the north, when this kid stood in the middle of the road In the art center of Pyongyang, we experienced a power outage, a daily event the North Koreans hate to show. When it happens, they tell you it's because of the american embargo On the highways, you can see trucks loaded with coal, since North Korea has big problem getting oil like during WW2 Something you can see often in North Korea, but still forbidden to photograph North Korea say foreign aid is a war debt, but taking pics of the WFP sign through the window of a house in a village is forbidden There are a lot of tired people since many have to ride their bikes for hours to go to work in the fields. Taking pictures of them is forbidden
The tyrannical regimes most deadly weapon is the Hwasong-14 and the Hwasong-13 – which have ranges of more than 6,000 miles.
Experts claim it is capable of reaching "anywhere in the world" and the tests have shown the weapons to be "far more successful than expected".

The missiles would be able to hit Alaska in mainland America as well as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Pretty informative article on the time line of the NoKoNuke program from a Russian source.

Nuclear bomb with self-reliance. One of the key arguments is that the attack on Libya was bound to influence the determination of NoKo to go full hog.

Nuclear bomb with self-reliance
Yesterday at 12:57 271 0 +0.49 / 9 +0.49 / 9
Posted in: Tension on the Korean Peninsula
Vediki977
Vediki977

One of the amusing types of puzzles is the guessing of how many nuclear weapons countries have, which always left unanswered the question of the quantity (or in general about the country's nuclear weapons). We are talking about countries such as India, Pakistan, Israel and of course North Korea. Another subgenre is an attempt to assess the nuclear potential of "border" countries, for example Iran, Japan or Brazil.

In this discipline, fragmentary knowledge of how the infrastructure and technologies for developing nuclear weapons and the fragmentary knowledge about the state of affairs in these very countries, which the researcher's eye is aimed at, are gaily intersected.
Today we are analyzing the nuclear potential of North Korea (UK).



Unfortunately, North Korea does not have its own Mordechai Vanunu and there is a risk that half of the atomic complex of this country is hidden in underground and undermining workings. Nevertheless, one can assume some logic in the construction of a nuclear weapons complex, which serves as a restrictor in assessing the quantity and quality of nuclear weapons in this country.
First of all, the development and production of a nuclear bomb splits into many tasks, very different in complexity. It is difficult to make a system of synchronous implosion of an implosive charge, but requires less resources than to produce the coveted ~ 6 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium 239 per bomb. In fact, the task of obtaining nuclear weapons materials always prevails over a new nuclear power, and the rest is already being traced.


What is characteristic is to find descriptions, diagrams and images of the equipment of radiochemical plants designed to extract plutonium by an order of magnitude more difficult than those for nuclear reactors (including plutonium developers) and even early nuclear warheads. In the photo above is a cell of a plutonium recovery plant in Hanford, USA.

In the case of the UK, the country was lucky - there are uranium deposits on the territory (found by Soviet geologists and first developed by the Chinese), estimated at 20-40 thousand tons of natural uranium. By applying certain (rather decent) efforts, the North Koreans are able to turn this ore into metal. What forks are there?

The simplest option is graphite channel reactors for the production of weapons-grade plutonium. In this case, a reactor with a capacity of 100 megawatts will be able to generate ~ 25 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium (4 charges) per year.
Working on natural uranium, the graphite reactor is able to convert to plutonium about 0.1% of the mass of loaded uranium - further the concentration of U235 (burnout) will fall below the critical one. If uranium is small, and you want a lot of bombs, you can switch to more efficient heavy water reactors.
Option three - to build enrichment plants and feed reactors with slightly enriched uranium. Or switch to warheads made from highly enriched uranium.


Each of the options requires its own set of technologies and plants that produce the necessary intermediate products - they can be searched for in the country's imports and satellite photographs.


The first tool in the hands of researchers of other people's secrets is surveillance of activity at selected sites (the nuclear center in North Korea's Yongbyon in the photo) - looking for changes, transport movements, traces of large installations (there is no discharge of cooling water from the reactor - it means it is stopped or at low power).

Starting with option one, North Korea would need to create:

Design and build a graphite reactor with a capacity> 10 MW. With external simplicity, this task entails the presence of heavy engineering and the production of specific materials, for example, very pure graphite
Build a plant for reprocessing irradiated nuclear fuel (for extraction of spent plutonium). This task requires the presence of a good chemical industry and the creation of non-trivial chemical devices: platinum fuel solvents in nitric acid, centrifugal extractors, specific filtering devices. In addition, it requires the presence of a whole galaxy of specialists in radiochemistry, just chemistry and nuclear physics
To all this, special-purpose metallurgy and metalworking work with the uranium and plutonium (toxic and active metals). Although the volumes for several charges per year are small, equipment and its parts for similar manufactures can be tried to track in the import.
Finally, various basic industries - for example, the production of aluminum alloys - are also saturated with specific equipment, for example, in the production of high-precision seamless pipes.


It is more difficult, of course, if all these pieces of equipment are developed and produced in the country - from above it is possible to discern only absolutely unique elements - such as a uranium mine, a reactor or the production of heavy water. However, when the question arises of the development (with preliminary scientific research) of hundreds of pieces of equipment, any country tries to save effort and time by importing "innocent" intermediate elements.
North Korea, apparently, began to show interest in nuclear weapons during the Korean War and quite persistently asked in the 50s of the "older brothers" of the USSR and China to transfer technology. As a result of trade, the USSR built a pool reactor IRT-2000 in the center of Yongbyon and started it in 1967. This is a training reactor, completely unsuitable for the production of plutonium. This is hampered by the thermal capacity, which allows only a few hundred grams of plutonium per year to be produced, the need to use enriched fuel (ie, fuel supplies were controlled by the USSR), and unsuitable for reprocessing fuel in the form of uranium in a magnesium matrix. All these features certainly did not occur by chance.


According to the external form of IRT-2000, it can be understood that this reactor is more aimed at removing weak beams of gamma radiation and neutrons from the core, than for reprocessing fuel. Nevertheless, the role played in the training of nuclear physicists, in the measurement of various constants in the nuclear program of North Korea, he played.

The reactor, launched in the 60s, diverted North Korea from its nuclear program for more than a decade, and it seems to me that it skillfully served as a carrot for North Korean comrades, who appreciated their strength and hoped to get a nuclear industry from the "northern brother". However, by the end of the 1970s, SK has switched to an independent program and from 1980 to 1986 built in the same Yongbyon a channel graphite gas-cooled reactor (similar in ideology with Magnox ) with a capacity of 20 or 25 thermal megawatts and a plant for manufacturing fresh fuel for this reactor. This is an almost ideal option for a cheap industrial reactor: the channel circuit allows ultra-short holding of fuel blocks, the gas coolant allows you not to think about corrosion problems. It is important to note that the shorter the exposure, the higher the efficiency of transmutation of U238 in Pu239 and the purer plutonium (smaller than the older isotopes), but at the same time the smaller the content of plutonium in fuel and the more it remains due to the finality of the efficiency of chemical extraction from the solution. Therefore, there is a certain optimum of aging, usually from 400 to 1000 MW * days per ton of fuel.

The rate of transmutation of uranium into plutonium, depending on the burnup.

It is evident that it is more advantageous to keep fuel shorter as possible, however, when plutonium is less than 0.05%, the efficiency of its recovery from the SNF solution in nitric acid begins to fall and more plutonium is lost. At the same time, an exposure of more than 1000 MW * days per ton begins to cause swelling of the metal fuel, and complicate the irradiation technology. By the way, in standard energy reactors standard burn-ups lie in the range of 40-60 thousand MW * days per ton.


The building of the North Korean "Magnox", which extended the entire Korean program for the production of plutonium. In the press, it often appears as a 5-megawatt reactor, but it's about electrical and not thermal power, although it's clear that the task of this reactor is not the generation of electricity.
Following the channel reactor, on the same site in 1992, the start-up of the radiochemical processing complex was started, the construction of a 200 megawatt reactor (formally energetic, but also convenient for the production of plutonium type Magnox) began. Simultaneously, all the same in Yongbyon, there were created laboratories for working with explosives, similar to those available in Los Alamos and Arzamas-16.

Hidden text

Photo of the place in the SNF reprocessing plant, where the machine was located, which cut the fuel SNF and transferred them to dissolution at the beginning of the Purex process. Yes, unfortunately, you need to include imagination here.

It is clear that since the late 1980s international diplomacy, and first of all Americans, tried to slow down North Korea's nuclear program in various ways. In particular, in 1991 the USA removed its tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea, and promoted the conclusion between the two Koreas of the treaty on the nuclear-free status of the peninsula. According to this agreement, inspectors' visits to the nuclear facilities of the UK began, which, however, were going smoothly only until the desire to see the main nuclear weapons facilities, in particular, the SNF reprocessing plant, appeared, after which the parties entered a two-year clinch. The next round of diplomacy in 1994 led to an agreement with the UK on freezing the plutonium reprocessing program and on stopping and dismantling the reactor (and refusing to build new ones), in return for supplying food, fuel and promises to build two gigawatts of nuclear power in North Korea.
By the time this agreement was signed, called the "Agreed Framework," IAEA inspectors counted the presence of ~ 24 kilograms of irradiated plutonium in the spent nuclear fuel of the 25-megawatt Magnox, largely stored in the reactor pool. A small part of this fuel (for understanding, these 24 kilograms was contained in about 8,000 irradiated fuel assemblies with a weight of 60 tons) was reworked for 1994, but apparently there was not yet a direct opportunity to assemble a nuclear bomb from Korea, diplomats braked the country literally in half a year from such capabilities.


A picture of the fuel holding pool of the Korean gas-graphite reactor. Apparently these are baskets with simple rod fuel rods, similar to the ones bombarded in Soviet industrial uranium-graphite reactors.
The most surprising thing about this arrangement is that it was fulfilled for quite some time: North Korea stopped the reactor and did not reprocess SNF (which was controlled by the IAEA), received fuel oil and waited for the construction of two gigawatt blocks (they were to be built by KEPCO, and even held a ceremony in 2002 "The first concrete" in the construction of nuclear power plants). However, in 2002, the United States accused the UK of having a secret centrifuge production facility, where weapons-grade uranium could be produced, in response, the UK accused everyone of a bargain in bias. The conflict ended with the actual destruction of the "Agreed Framework."
Generally speaking, gas-centrifuge production is privately served as one of the most dangerous nuclear weapons technologies. In fact, it must be understood that gas centrifuges are complex not only constructively, but also productive (this is a precision mechanics of not the simplest materials that must be produced in huge volumes). For a small country that wants to get a nuclear bomb in its hands, the GC is an unobvious topic for development.


And this is a photo of the remains of furnaces in which uranium was smelted and fuel clusters were cast.

First, to produce 30-40 kg of weapons-grade uranium per year, it is necessary to build more than hundreds of thousands of centrifuges, each approximately the size of a 155-millimeter shell. In addition, it is necessary to construct conversion-sublimation processes that convert uranium dioxide UO2 to uranium hexafluoride UF6. They need to produce pure fluorine, hydrofluoric acid, freons, as well as a variety of materials from which the system will be assembled, along which these hellish gases (nickel alloys and stainless steels, Teflon) will move.
Secondly, it is difficult to create a powerful bomb on the basis of only 235 uranium - a simple implosive scheme gives too much and a heavy device that can not be put on a rocket, and variants with a boost, a composite core, puffs, etc. - require a completely different level of development of the nuclear weapons complex and, in the end, the same plutonium.
However, North Korea followed this path, possibly prompted by a successful ban on the production of plutonium. In one way or another, the researchers of the nuclear program of the UK, in addition to entertainment and counting the volumes of plutonium, added even more erratic arguments about the volumes of weapons-grade uranium and its possible application.


Approximately 5 tons of intermediate product (UO3) in a fresh fuel factory for a 20-megawatt reactor is stacked under IAEA chambers.

However, because of the destruction of the agreements of 2002, North Korea hurried to achieve the goals, which had been going on since the 50s, and on October 9, 2006, it blew up its first nuclear warhead. If in 2006 there was a lot of skepticism about the realism of the nuclear test, a whole "batch of thousands of tons of ammonia" because of the low power of detonation, today (in 2017, after a 120+ kiloton test) it is clear that for 4 years the SC has managed reprocess SNF, isolate and purify plutonium, construct and manufacture ammunition and enter the club of nuclear powers.
By the way, it's funny that a month before this test, Israel bombed a building in Syria, which the IAEA was later called a copy of the 25-megawatt Korean reactor in the process of installation.
The situation returned to the negotiating table with North Korea, the United States, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea, and four months later, North Korea again received pledges of all assistance in exchange for freezing its nuclear program. It would be interesting, of course, to listen to diplomats, because for me, for example, it is absolutely incomprehensible how one can achieve such a result. But the fact remains - North Korea began to receive buns in exchange for the gradual dismantling of its reactor: in the summer of 2007, IAEA inspectors were convinced that the reactor in Yongbyon was stopped and took control of fresh and irradiated fuel. Later it was demonstrated that all the equipment was dismantled at the fresh fuel factory (whatever that means), and in the summer of 2008, like a cherry on the cake, the cooling tower of the Yongbyon reactor was blown up.


The same, which was subsequently blown up and not yet restored by the cooling tower. Obviously, the lack of a heat-sink system complicates the operation of the reactor, although apparently it was transferred to flow cooling with water from a nearby river.


Winch for moving baskets with SNF at the beginning of processing (movement was carried out on a hot chamber behind the back wall). It is interesting that in the white cabinet there are American detector blocks, capable of detecting work with SNF.

However, this is the next stage of friendship and harmony again ended. The US did not exclude the UK from the list of sponsors of terrorists, as promised, and the North Koreans slightly surprised to expel the IAEA inspectors from the facilities and began their restoration. On May 25, 2009, North Korea is conducting a second detonation of 4-5 kilotons.


Photos of tests, unfortunately, do not exist, but there is such a wonderful sketch. "The supreme leader Kim Jong Ying trains Korean developers of nuclear weapons with the finer points of design and production." Before Kim, the model of a multi-point implosion charge, similar to early American charges.

By the way, we will stop for a second, and see how these explosions usually look for all who are not directly involved in the North Korean nuclear program. Since they are conducted in galleries in the mountains in the north-east of the country, the main evidence of the explosion are seismic signatures that are registered in the surrounding countries. Seismologists say that the nuclear explosion has several characteristics, and the main one is actually the ground location of the source of the seismic signal, whereas earthquakes usually have a source deep underground.


After the next break with the West, North Korea not only resumed the tests, but also developed a decent activity for the completion of production in Yongbyon.

The nuclear nature of the explosion can be documented by the presence of some short-lived radioisotopes, in particular Xenon-135 to Xenon-133. While in SNF this ratio is about 0.5 in fission products of a nuclear explosion it is of the order of 100, therefore the increased isotope ratio is a bright explosion marker (in fact, the determination of the nature of the source is slightly more complicated and involves other isotope ratios, more here ). For North Korea, higher ratios were fixed in 2006 and 2010. In addition, a characteristic feature is the presence of Ba-140 / Cs-140 isotopes in the absence of other barium and cesium isotopes. This indicates the instantaneous release of gases immediately after the rapid process of nuclear fission, tk. these isotopes are the decay products of a very short-lived xenon-140. In the old SNF xenon-140 is not present, from fresh hot it is thrown together with other volatile isotopes of cesium.


One of the germanium detectors, exercising control. In the center is the gamma spectrometer itself, on which a cylindrical filter with samples is put on. Around - a lead shield thickness of ~ 200 mm, and in front it is also closed with a 200mm lid.

There is a whole network of 321 stations of the international organization CTBTO, which are aimed at finding isotopes-markers of nuclear explosions, and it is information from them that allows us to calculate some characteristics of Korea's nuclear tests. For example, it seems that the 2009 tests were conducted in the same cell as the 2006 tests, possibly on the basis of the accumulation of plutonium in one place, from where it can then be extracted. In principle, if stations capture the entire spectrum of volatile fission products, CTBTO can tell whether there was a charge from plutonium 239 or uranium 235, there was thermonuclear charge amplification or not and even refine the seismic power data. However, not always the PD reached the stations - so for the 2009 test, the release of radionuclides was recorded only in 2010 (apparently, when the tunnel was opened by the North Koreans).
After 2009, the UK carried out similar explosions of ~ 5-10 kiloton charges in galleries in 2013 and twice in 2016, and finally, in September 2017, a warhead estimated by seismologists at 120-400 kilotons was blown up.


Literally the day before the blast, the UK circulated such photographs, hinting at the presence of a two-stage thermonuclear ammunition in the IC, perhaps even with a radiation implosion scheme (high-tech in the world of nuclear bombs). For the idiots at the back there is a poster showing that this bomb is getting into the warheads of the ballistic missiles that SK possessed.

120 kilotons means unambiguous mastery of thermonuclear ammunition by North Korea (perhaps not quite the same as the media see them, but practically unambiguously the ammunition part of the energy is allocated by thermonuclear fusion), which in turn requires the capacity to separate isotopes of lithium and hydrogen (i.e. on the receipt of heavy water) and, possibly, a radiochemical laboratory capable of working with tritium.
The ammunition of several hundred kilotons, mounted on the latest achievements of the North Korean missile system, is a very serious weapon, still available to only 5 countries of the world. A cautious summation of the capabilities of North Korea suggests that the country has from 5 to 15 munitions, which can be converted into charges of similar power.


Not a connoisseur of Korean missiles, but these look impressive enough to be an ICBM.

Maybe the analysts were right, warning in 2011 that the attack on Muammar Kadaffi, who handed over his nuclear program in exchange for security guarantees, will still hail in the east.