India - South & North Korea Thread

[kapilrdave]

Basically, all this is happening because US has lost its deterrence against NoKo by showing its impotence for years. Here US is not alone to be blamed. Or it is the least one to be blamed. More blame goes to SoKo and Japan. They have done zilch about deterring NoKo.

Now china and US have sensed US's inability to act even conventionally against NoKo in the absence of SoKo and Jap's active support. So they are pushing the envelop further and further by day. Here they have got nothing to lose. They are acting sanctimoniously.

Rest assured that China will never venture into the war overtly. They too lack the guts. And they must be scared about their fate in case of war. This is the worst time they can go into a war. *BUT* they are genius when it comes to identifying the opportunity and seizing it. So they are using NoKo to push the envelop further and further while making sure they are out of the target zone. If push comes to shove, they will act sheepish. They might even tow the US line to save their own a**. No fireworks coming from their end rest assured.

Russia is the gutsiest player in this game. They have got nothing to lose. All they hope is that at minimum a few destroyers of US along with a few hundred US soldiers are dead so that there is enough public pressure is built in US mainland to withdraw from SCS. And of course, they will take any more destruction than this for US. More the merrier. They might even throw a number of N tipped ICBMs on US cities in the name of NoKo.

What happens to NoKo is the least worry of china & roos. They will let them get wiped out from the face of the earth. That might even be the best result in favor of ch+ru! Just imagine the world's outrage against the twice user of nukes! The US people themselves will throw DT to dogs for doing this. The whole country will become passimist (like Japan) after this and may never recover from this in future.

As I said earlier, US's task is cut out. It can either pack up and go home or be more aggressive. They don't want a war. They don't even need to go to war as such. All they have to do is to rebuild their deterrence. Their deterrence against NoKo has failed. So now they have to start threatening directly to China for dire consequences. China is a foxy country. They will steal, creep in, lie, obfuscate, backstab, double-cross and do all sort of stuff. But if confronted directly, it will run away as fast as it can. THAT'S where US's exit gate lies from this crisis. Just start declaring China a party in this whole mess, show that the nukes are of China's, manufacture the evidences if there are none, start giving threats through military generals directly to china. And then see how the paper dlagon tows the line.

But, who will bell the chinese cat? I think DT's weakness is deep state which is with china. So the problem lies right there.

[UlanBatori]

OK, can u hear the drums of war?
US media starts its full-tilt demonization of Fat Boy
The guy can't be all bad if he uses AA guns to reward "musicians". Many a parent has I am sure had a flash of a similar urge, just didn't have the weapons handy.
Predictable response from FOX reader:

Kim sounds more and more like a Clinton everyday!

[UlanBatori]

And Comrade Putin's media helpfully pours petrol into the fire

In fact, the US missile defense system is incapable of shooting down North Korean missiles, according to American expert on nuclear weapons Joe Cirincione. Neither the US nor Japan could have intercepted the missile launched by North Korea last week because "none of the theater ballistic missile defense weapons in existence" could hit a target at such an altitude, Cirincione wrote in a piece for Defense One. On September 15, South Korea and Japan said that North Korea fired the Hwasong-12 ballistic missile. It reached an altitude of 770 kilometers and traveled 3,700 kilometers before falling into the Pacific Ocean, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry. "It is hundreds of kilometers too high for the Aegis interceptors deployed on Navy ships off Japan. Even higher for the THAAD systems in South Korea and Guam. Way too high for the Patriot systems in Japan, which engage largely within the atmosphere," Cirincione pointed out. All of the three missile defense systems are designed to intercept a missile in the post-midcourse or terminal phase. In theory, an attempt could be made to intercept a missile just after the launch. However, according to the expert, it would be quite unrealistic.
"There is almost no chance of hitting a North Korean missile on its way up unless an Aegis ship was deployed very close to the launch point, perhaps in North Korean waters. Even then, it would have to chase the missile, a race it is unlikely to win. In the only one or two minutes of warning time any system would have, the probability of a successful engagement drops close to zero," the article read. As for the continental part of the US, there are the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptors deployed in Alaska and California. This system is designed to hit targets in midflight, including in space. But the GMD is not fully operational yet and has destroyed only 50 percent of targets during tests. It is hard to predict how the system would operate under realistic conditions, including against a missile using countermeasures. "We will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea," Trump said in his first speech at the UN General Assembly. Trump said that Pyongyang’s "reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles threatens the entire world with the unthinkable loss of human life." The US president stressed that "denuclearization is its only acceptable future" for North Korea.The American leader went on by calling on United Nations member states to join forces to isolate the Kim regime until it ceases its "hostile" behavior.

IOW there is no boost-phase intercept. So the only approach is a pre-emptive strike on launch sites.

[UlanBatori]

Kapil: Do u see a way out where NoKo is forced to denuke, de-mijjile and de-sub without a war? How can it be verified, as long as the facilities are not dismantled/destroyed (to prevent sudden, overnight revival)?

[UlanBatori]

Dumbass reaction from WaPo

North Korea is likely to fire more missiles after Trump’s speech, experts say

Wasn't that the point?

That speech on North Korea was really unhelpful, China tells Trump

Directing criticism at the Kims is heretical for a regime that has created an all-encompassing personality cult around its leaders, turning them into virtual deities.

..er, but they don't show such footage uncensored in NoKo, do they?

I was wondering about the purpose of mentioning Iran, but now I see:

“His trashing of the Iran nuclear deal will raise warning signs for North Korea,” said Pak, of Brookings. “This is not going to get them to talk if the U.S. is just going to tear it up.”

Exactly, so Launch, Kim, Launch!

[Rudradev]

UB, The 2003 Iraq war was "won" (cf: Mission Accomplished) and Saddam thrown out of power as quickly as that happened because key Iraqi Army jernails were bought off. No resistance at all as the US rolled into Baghdad and began knocking down statues. At that time, of course, IrA jernails still thought they'd have a share in the post-Saddam dispensation, and didn't realize that Jenius Paul Bremmer was going to disband the "Ba'athist" security apparatus root and branch.

This remains the primary focus of American efforts I'm sure. Find a NoKo jernail or three who wouldn't mind getting IMMENSELY rich (and retiring to a club med of their choice in the CONUS) in exchange for (1) Stand down when order comes to fire arty at SoKo, or missiles at anything (2) Reliably locate and deliver the keys to the Hwasonga AtimBum arsenal.

Of course the downside is that the Fatboy loyalists know this, and are probably hyper-paranoid about giving any small and bribe-able group of people access to said keys.

The reverse upside, yet again, is that sustained, widespread paranoia in the ranks of any defence/security establishment is invariably debilitating to its efficiency in the long term. Number of real potential traitors will increase, after a point at which enough innocent jernails/ministers/etc. have been shot for looking at Fatboy's picture the wrong way.

Wait, watch, and whisper is how this "war" IS being fought. The first shot will be fired by the side that loses its nerve.

[UlanBatori]

Eat, drink and b merry!! Yellowstone super-volcano to erupt.

Experts believe the hermit kingdom now has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the US west coast. North Korea has been carrying out weapons tests at Mount Paektu – a 9,000ft active volcano on its border with China. (ramana, 4.1 was a 400% earthquake?)

And Kim has repeatedly threatened to reduce the US “to ashes”. The tubby tyrant appeared to reveal his plans when he displayed a map of the US with a massive hole in the middle earlier this month. Interestingly, an analyst from Russia – which has been accused of secretly helping North Korea’s missile programme – suggested a nuclear attack on Yellowstone just two years ago.

I think this is silly. It will take a few thermonukes in series, each hitting the same crater in turn, to "achieve" this outcome, hain? A small eruption maybe, but nothing to write home about. Their argument is that this way NoKo needs only one mijjile to counter the US' 8000.

But Kim may only need to fire one missile to wipe out the US completely.Despite few people living in the Yellowstone National Park, any “super-eruption” would still kill 90,000 people in an initial explosion. Up to 11 cubic miles of burning magma would run across the surrounding area. The eruption would also fire ash 25 miles into the atmosphere – blotting out the sun and causing a nuclear winter. A 10ft blanket of ash would cover the US for 1,000 miles in all directions. Up to two-thirds of the US would be uninhabitable and Midwest farms would be covered – almost totally stopping food production. David Meade fears the attack could come this week, as doomsayers warn the apocalypse will start on September 23, 2017.“It would take a relatively small megaton class of munition to initiate an eruption. “In 2013 it was discovered that the magma field in Yellowstone was 2.5 times larger than previously believed. “An eruption would be the equivalent of 2,000 Mount St Helens. “If the California fault line was simultaneously triggered, you would have a coastal tsunami covering the west coast.”

Oh! THREE whole days to wait for this?

And helpfully, there is an RT.com video with a serious-sounding narrator

[UlanBatori]

rd, I think the Chinese presence will have weeded out any suitable jarnails who have enough power to lead after a decapitation of the Kim regime. Otherwise that would have been the ideal SDOTUS/CIA algorithm to "solve" this, long ago: set up a South Vietnam (Diem?) style US puppet dictator, start killing off anyone who can read and write, and REALLY plunge Korea into another civil war (ultimately won by China).

This is why it takes a DT to solve it: someone has to be actually willing to press the big red button in the face of cheen, and start MASSIVE air and missile attacks.

[UlanBatori]

The funny thing is that except for me and UBCN, no one seems to seriously believe that there will be a war very soon. Markets certainly don't seem worried at all. This means DT's detergent is not taken seriously even in the US, let alone in Beijing or Moscow. Really strange. Ppl really think all those capital ships and planes burning fuel out there are going to return without firing a shot and with nothing to show except accidents and general disgrace?

Perversely, if that is the market's belief, doesn't it show a totally wacko US administration about to implode, and should THAT not shake the markets?

[UlanBatori]

Next salvo in Insult War
“I feel sorry for his aides”, he said, according to South Korea's Yonhap News agency. He added: "If he was thinking he could scare us with the sound of a dog barking, that's really a dog dream."

[sum]

^^ Amazing how China managed to get USA into a equal-equal with a puny N.Korea with president of the greatest superpower directly addressing and trading taunts with a tiny little country when larger countries dont even get 1 minute face time with POTUS

[shiv]

As I said earlier, US's task is cut out. It can either pack up and go home or be more aggressive. They don't want a war. They don't even need to go to war as such. All they have to do is to rebuild their deterrence. Their deterrence against NoKo has failed. So now they have to start threatening directly to China for dire consequences.

Good post but I must quibble with the above part.

Deterrence against NoKo will fail only if NoKo uses a nuke. If NoKo does not use a nuke but keeps challenging the US - it actually tests the US's ability to dominate without using its formidable nuclear arsenal.

We have to see who is deterred more.

NoKo is deterred by the US knowing that the US will "totally destroy" North Korea
The US is deterred because they don't want to resort to first use and let the nuclear genie out of the bottle again

It is the US that has greater incentive to kill deterrence by not being deterred by NoKo and attacking with conventional and nukes if need be.

This whole business of 'first use" and "no first use" are two variants/branches of deterrence.

• "No first use" means "I will be deterred by your nukes until you use them first. Then I will say "deterrence has failed" and I will nuke you
• "First use" means "I have nukes and will nuke you as and when I feel like it"

It is the US that has a first use doctrine. NoKo has no known doctrine. IMO the only way the US can "build up deterrence" is by removing the NoKo threat completely by "destroying NoKo"

Actually things are getting dangerous. The "Achievements of Modi" thread may take a huge nosedive if nuclear war starts to the joy of the usual bunch. IMO it is better that NoKo is defanged while the US retains it honour because of all the ba$tard nations in this conflict the US is least inimical ba$tard wrt to India.

[Philip]

http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/new ... |newslist1
‘Sound of a dog barking’: North Korea ridicules Trump threat
North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, responds to Donald Trump calling Kim Jong-un ‘rocket man’

In his first speech to the UN general assembly, Trump said on Tuesday the US would be forced to “totally destroy” North Korea if Washington was forced to defend itself or its allies against the country’s missiles.

Referring to the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, by a nickname he gave him in a tweet last weekend, Trump said to the visible dismay of some in the hall: “Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime.”

Donald Trump threatens to 'totally destroy' North Korea in UN speech
Speaking to reporters outside his hotel after arriving in New York on Wednesday, Ri cited a Korean proverb when asked to respond to Trump’s vow to destroy his country.

“There is a saying that the marching goes on even when dogs bark,” Ri said, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
“If he was thinking he could scare us with the sound of a dog barking, that’s really a dog dream,” he added. In Korean, a dog dream is one that makes little sense.

Asked what he thought of Trump’s description of Kim as rocket man, Ri replied: “I feel sorry for his aides.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... n-or-china

Was Trump aiming at North Korea's Rocket Man or his friend next door?
US president appeared to be directly threatening overwhelming military force against Pyongyang, but experts say there might have been another message
Portraits of US president Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
US president Donald Trump appeared to be taking aim at North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the UN but he might have had other figures in the frame too.
Tom Phillips in Beijing
Wednesday 20 September 2017
On the face of it, Donald Trump’s threat to “totally destroy” North Korea was aimed squarely at Kim Jong-un and the twisted and reckless “band of criminals” he said surrounded him.

“Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime,” the US president warned during his bellicose debut at the UN general assembly.
Donald Trump threatens to 'totally destroy' North Korea in UN speech
But was the North Korean dictator Trump’s true target, or was it really the man next door?

Some experts suspect Trump’s incendiary ultimatum was in fact directed at Chinese president Xi Jinping, whose assistance he is seeking in the crusade against what he dubbed Kim’s “depraved regime”.

Bonnie Glaser, director of the China power project at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: “The way Trump speaks about North Korea … suggests he believes that if he is very, very tough that he can somehow persuade other countries to do more against North Korea: that he can bully them into doing more.”

Trump warns US may have to 'totally destroy North Korea' – video
In the case of China, that meant convincing Xi to cut off North Korea’s crude oil supply, a game-changing move that could, eventually, topple Kim’s regime.

Glaser said it was hard to know how such threats might affect Beijing’s calculus. But the message to Xi was clear: “If you guys don’t do more and you really don’t curb your oil exports, then we are going to strike.”

Chinese commentators are split on whether Trump’s gambit will pay off.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Beijing’s Renmin University, said the president’s “wild words” were doomed to fail.

Over the past few months it has become so clear that Kim Jong-un is not afraid of [Trump].
Shi Yinhong, Renmin University
“He wants to intimidate North Korea and to pressure China. He wants to show that he is a man and that everybody should be afraid of him. But over the past few months it has become so clear that Kim Jong-un is not afraid of him. On the contrary, the military threat will make Kim even more focused on nuclear and missile development to protect North Korea’s survival in the face of this kind of American policy.”

Nor was China likely to change its position. Shi said Beijing simply did not believe Trump would risk a military attack on its doorstep, a move experts universally agree would spark a catastrophic conflagration on the Korean peninsula. “They are not going to totally destroy North Korea and risk retaliation with nuclear weapons. He’s only bluffing.”

An editorial in the China Daily took a similarly dim view of what it called Trump’s indulgent and antagonistic finger-pointing at the UN: “His threat to ‘totally destroy’ [North Korea will] ... likely worsen the already volatile situation,” it said.

But Shen Dingli, a foreign affairs expert from Shanghai’s Fudan University, offered a more sympathetic take on Trump’s apparent strategy and said he could see some art in the deal the president was trying to broker.

Shen said Trump’s “confrontational words” were not only being lapped up by the American public but were also starting to affect Beijing’s thinking. “Each time he has threatened China, China has made concessions because China wants to protect its trade with the US,” he said, pointing to China’s recent support for two rounds of UN security council sanctions against North Korea.

US president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Hamburg in July. Photograph: Reuters
Shen said China did not need to completely capitulate, merely to continue making incremental concessions that would keep the US president at bay and avert a major falling-out between the world’s top two economies. “Trump is a businessman by training. He wants to raise the bar higher to get a good return. [But] he never expects a partner to pay the full cost,” Shen said.

Evidence to support Shen’s theory can be found on page 45 of Trump’s 1987 bestseller The Art of the Deal: “My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward. I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after,” he writes, adding: “Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases I still end up with what I want.”

Such is Trump’s apparent obsession with getting China to help him rein in North Korea, that even his new nickname for Kim Jong-un – “rocket man” – has reportedly been chosen with Beijing in mind.

“It translates clearly into Chinese,” one senior administration official told CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta after Trump gave the moniker its latest airing at the UN’s headquarters in New York.

The nickname – which translates into “huojian ren” in Mandarin – appeared to have struck a chord on Chinese social media sites, although perhaps not in the way Trump had intended.

Such a cool name: ‘Rocket Man’. It makes Fatty Kim seem like a super hero.
“Such a cool name: ‘Rocket Man’,” one user of Weibo, China’s Twitter, wrote on Wednesday. “It makes Fatty Kim seem like a super hero.”

Glaser said Beijing’s ears would also have pricked up at Trump’s attack on countries that had “faithfully implemented socialism”.

“From the Soviet Union to Cuba to Venezuela, wherever true socialism or communism has been adopted, it has delivered anguish and devastation and failure. Those who preach the tenets of these discredited ideologies only contribute to the continued suffering of the people who live under these cruel systems,” he told the UN.

Those comments would fuel Chinese suspicions and anxieties that, despite reassurances from US secretary of state Rex Tillerson, Trump’s administration was indeed set on regime change in places such as North Korea, Glaser said.

“I think they will conclude that president Trump can potentially do something dangerous and that they have to be careful … I don’t think they rule out the possibility that he could actually launch a military strike.”

That, of course, may be precisely the point.

Additional reporting by Wang Zhen

[kapilrdave]

Kapil: Do u see a way out where NoKo is forced to denuke, de-mijjile and de-sub without a war? How can it be verified, as long as the facilities are not dismantled/destroyed (to prevent sudden, overnight revival)?

UB ji, IMVHO there is no point even attempting it. NoKo can be denuked and de-subd if the nuke and subs are of NoKo. They are not. They will come again from where they came before - china. There is literally no other way for US to directly confront china on economic and military front. China is getting bolder and bolder by day. Today it has challenged US in SCS, tomorrow they will challenge in entire pacific with the help of russia. Then russia will play its game in Europe from the military front jointly with china who will play from the economic front. US will be ousted from everywhere if china is not tamed right now.

In all this India needs to find its own opportunities and exploit them to full extent. If played well, we can milk both roos and joos .

[kapilrdave]

Good post but I must quibble with the above part.

Deterrence against NoKo will fail only if NoKo uses a nuke. If NoKo does not use a nuke but keeps challenging the US - it actually tests the US's ability to dominate without using its formidable nuclear arsenal.

Vaidyaraj,

Firstly, I find it incredible that a tiny country like NoKo is daring the US with nukes so blatently in unprecedented manner. They are leaving no stone unturned to provoke the US. Don't they know already that they can be wiped out in matter of minutes? And why they are testing the nukes and ICBM in first place? Nobody believes that they are collecting some scentific data out of testing. Those are already tested weapons. Then where is the need for NoKo to test? Even if this is a genuine test on behalf of China, why would they do hoopla about it? If the tests are genuine either for NoKo or china, then they would simply downplay it. no? Whoever Kim's adviser is, his intention is clearly to provoke a catastrophic war. If they are not successful in drawing US into the war, they will provoke more and more and more...

Apparently, NoKo is ready to sacrifice itself for the benefit of others. God knows why. Also, it is increasingly looking like all the supposed anguish of mango NoKo junta against Kim is a snakeoil of western media. Otherwise by now people and some top generals would have opposed these suicidal steps of Kim. So we have fair amount of indication that NoKo as a country is ready to sacrifice for others. Now how much sacrifice is acceptable for them is anybody's guess. But only a mad country would risk to get wiped out for other country. So it is left to US to find out how much!

Having done all this, NoKo is compelling US to take out their nuke sites and weapons. This will have to be the stated objective of US in case of war. This is a very dangerous situation for either party. If not NoKo, someone else might use nukes in NoKo's name. That's why I say that US's deterrence has failed. Of course, the conclusive evidence of this can come only by war.

We have to see who is deterred more.

NoKo is deterred by the US knowing that the US will "totally destroy" North Korea
The US is deterred because they don't want to resort to first use and let the nuclear genie out of the bottle again

It is the US that has greater incentive to kill deterrence by not being deterred by NoKo and attacking with conventional and nukes if need be.

This makes sense only till we assume that NoKo is a relevant party in this game. It is not really. What happens to NoKo is nobody's concern. And it is entirely useless to deter NoKo. China and Russia are looking to milk this war no matter what the result is. They even want the most catastrophic result for either party. I will give an example.

Tomorrow if taliban "officially" gets hold of nukes and fires at India, what does India do? Is there any point in destroying taliban? Is taliban even a party? No because if we throw nukes at taliban camps in bak, we will be grilled for collateral damage. It's advantage bak all the way! Therefore, it is important for us to de-recognize taliban and hold bak responsible directly for any possible misadventure by taliban. THAT'S how bakis will be deterred.

Similarly, NoKo is a nonstate actor of china+rus. To deter NoKo, you have to deter at least china, if not even russia. US needs to completely de-recognize NoKo nukes and state clearly that it's china's. US also needs to stop giving legitimacy to NoKo and talk directly with china. That's when US's deterrence will be reestablished. The way US is going currently is the surest way of doom.

[UlanBatori]

^^ Amazing how China managed to get USA into a equal-equal with a puny N.Korea with president of the greatest superpower directly addressing and trading taunts with a tiny little country when larger countries dont even get 1 minute face time with POTUS

Exactly.
Precisely the intent of "6-Party Talks".

But as long as the "equal-equal" leads to a Dodge City Equal-Equal and ends with Marshal Dillon walking and the other guy consigned to Boot Hill, it's OK. At this point the "talk" is "DROP THE GUN. NOW!~!"
We have seen the Rest of The Story b4.

[shiv]

Firstly, I find it incredible that a tiny country like NoKo is daring the US with nukes so blatently in unprecedented manner. They are leaving no stone unturned to provoke the US. Don't they know already that they can be wiped out in matter of minutes?

From NoKo's viewpoint it makes perfect sense. It's not suicidal at all. Kim has called the US's bluff. The US is naked because its nuclear threats are empty.

Apparently, NoKo is ready to sacrifice itself for the benefit of others.

Not at all. There is no way NoKo can be nuked without affecting South Korea, China and Japan with fallout. And the US will bear the responsibility. The US has a big mouth and smaller teeth. NoKo was threatened with nukes in the Korean war (Gen MacArthur) but POTUS (Was it Eisenhower?) did not allow that. So NoKo has known from the 1950s that the US's "first use on nukes " threat is hollow.

And like that article linked by (was it) Mukesh Kumar - Kim Jong Un has realized how Gadaafi was taken out after he vowed not to make nukes, by the same guys who promised to leave him alone if he did not make nukes.

Having done all this, NoKo is compelling US to take out their nuke sites and weapons. This will have to be the stated objective of US in case of war. This is a very dangerous situation for either party. If not NoKo, someone else might use nukes in NoKo's name. That's why I say that US's deterrence has failed. Of course, the conclusive evidence of this can come only by war.

This is a game of chicken but has made the US naked because the US had a pre-emptive "first use" policy. NoKo realizes that the US is soft. Americans are soft. they don't really want nuclear war. But will use nukes if they are nuked first. NoKo will not nuke anyone.

Tomorrow if taliban "officially" gets hold of nukes and fires at India, what does India do?

India will nuke Pakistan.

The US cannot scare China by shifting the blame on to China but let me state what is really dangerous. If One of NoKo's missile tests goes wrong and the missile falls on Japan. That will really test the US's commitment.

The US is chicken, but not weak. If the US is provoked enough to nuke NoKo the US will warn China that they will be nuked as well. China then has to decide to nuke the US back and this may take the US down but China is finished too. So both the US and China do not want this.

I think the best outcome will be doing an Osama on Kim. You can bet every intel asset is looking at where Kim is at any given point in time

[UlanBatori]

US needs to completely de-recognize NoKo nukes and state clearly that it's china's. US also needs to stop giving legitimacy to NoKo and talk directly with china.

I don't disagree, but the moment DT says: The nukes and missiles are China's. So we hold China responsible, and we are going to attack them", he will have declared war on China.

That would cause total panic in the US and rest of the world.

Cheen **CANNOT** then run with tail between legs, without immense loss of H&D a la Cuba 1961 (or was it 62?) Krushchev did not survive that. So US and Cheen are in a MAD standoff, no war, but everyone digging shelters and shopping for iodine pills and lead-lined basements.

But US can establish deterrence by pulverizing NoKo, the nuclear deterrence still holds then, plus the lesson is conveyed to the cheen that "Nope! That dog don't hunt! We will pulverize your proxies."
Major Pepto-Bismol time in Islamagood and Teheran. Maybe in Caracas too, which is what I see as the point of the UN speech.

If you read Lavrov (I don't know if I linked that above) he professes total HAPPINESS with US-Russia relations!!!! Can you believe this? WHY? The answer comes from what is actually happening in Syria. I think the Red Phone Hotline is working overtime between WHOTUS and Kremlin, and is not being monitored on either side. All the Russia-US snarling and growling is an act between two sophisticated artists.

So Eleven may not be as smart as he thinks. An actual destruction of the NoKo arsenal in the short term, can cause a major upset to cheen's aspirations as well as balance of trade, and neither US nor Russia is going to weep at that. I think cheen has outsmarted themselves as they did at Doklam.

IOW, the only out without war is a total cheen back-off, including a swift withdrawal of the nukes and missiles, seen and certified by US spy-sates. That would induce a US withdrawal, and maybe even a denuke-ization of Korean Peninsula and NorthEast Asia (a declared aim and standing proposal of the Track 2 in those parts, BTW as UBCN 400% re-lia-able sources happen to know...)

Similar to what happened at the end of Op Parakram in 2002, as someone published then.... except that it was not the "US neutralizing Paki Nukes" but "The strategic assets are back with whoever paid for them" as the Paki journalist taking refuge in DupleeCity wrote at the time. From what we see in NoKo, it is obvious that "whoever paid for them" was not KSA but cheen.

So that's my refined prediction: either a 2002-style U-turn by cheen - though this time I don't see how DT is going to explain fleet withdrawal to the public - or a US strike (following some "provocation "of course) on NoKo.

[UlanBatori]

If US demonstrates that they can make a teeny-weeny strike on NoKo WITHOUT triggering the "all-out artillery assault turning Seoul into a Sea Of Fire", then NoKo will be seen to be a paper tiger, hain? That's the other out for cheen.

[sum]

SoKo announces 8m civilian USD aid to NoKo

Truely they make UPA look like a hardliner

[UlanBatori]

Well... sum, not so fast. 6 days ago, SoKo did the flat-out "we will COMPLETELY DESTROY noko" announcement, and they have been in intensive demos of military power. I didn't post that because it was old and superseded by the DT threat. So this 8m aid is like: "we CAN be nice.. just depose the junta".

[kapilrdave]

From NoKo's viewpoint it makes perfect sense. It's not suicidal at all. Kim has called the US's bluff. The US is naked because its nuclear threats are empty.

Just because you think that US may not nuke first, you don't go around threatening a power like US of nuking. There are other ways to call the US bluff like they did by sinking SoKo ship. NoKo is deliberately provoking inviting to do pre-emptive strikes (on someone's advise). Pre-emptive strikes are very dangerous and nobody knows how the things shape up in that situation. NoKo generals and even Kim himself would be tempted to use it or lose it. And NoKo also runs a real risk of someone else nuking US in its name. No sane nation can do such stuff the way NoKo is doing.

Apparently, NoKo is ready to sacrifice itself for the benefit of others.

Not at all. There is no way NoKo can be nuked without affecting South Korea, China and Japan with fallout. And the US will bear the responsibility. The US has a big mouth and smaller teeth. NoKo was threatened with nukes in the Korean war (Gen MacArthur) but POTUS (Was it Eisenhower?) did not allow that. So NoKo has known from the 1950s that the US's "first use on nukes " threat is hollow.

Once again, aren't these too risky assumptions that too for the benefit of others? Besides there are tac-nukes to do the job. Not all the people of country have to die for complete destruction. Kim is running a country like an auto rickshaw driver who dares the traffic police on a daily basis.

And like that article linked by (was it) Mukesh Kumar - Kim Jong Un has realized how Gadaafi was taken out after he vowed not to make nukes, by the same guys who promised to leave him alone if he did not make nukes.

Making nukes is one thing. And inviting US to pre-empt is quite another. NoKo is sitting quite comfortably otherwise. There is no one sweating to "get him". Kim is working hard to make others sweat to get himself.

This is a game of chicken but has made the US naked because the US had a pre-emptive "first use" policy. NoKo realizes that the US is soft. Americans are soft. they don't really want nuclear war. But will use nukes if they are nuked first. NoKo will not nuke anyone.

Again, big assumption for any sane country's comfort. But even if we go by that, this is the best case scenario for US. US wouldn't mind a conventional war with NoKo at all. They can still pre-empt nukes with conventional weapons. They can still inflict an unrecoverable damage to NoKo conventionally. Such a war will boost US's conventional deterrence against all rogue states.

It is another thing that Cheen, deep state and Roos will use whatever damage US would have incurred for their own advantage against US. But all that comes once the war is finished and NoKo has already lost. Also, it wouldn't be a too big a loss for US if fought conventionally. At most DT will be thrown out by libbies after this and show will go on for the rest. IMHO handlers of NoKo will not be content with such a nominal result. They want it big. Very big. Something that is non-conventional. Something in which US is not a clear winner. And that is what US's worry is. Again that's my opinion.

Tomorrow if taliban "officially" gets hold of nukes and fires at India, what does India do?

India will nuke Pakistan.

That is what you and I am confident of. That is what even Pak is convinced of. And that's only why taliban still don't have nukes. But is China convinced of getting nuked if NoKo strikes on US? That is my point.

The US cannot scare China by shifting the blame on to China but let me state what is really dangerous. If One of NoKo's missile tests goes wrong and the missile falls on Japan. That will really test the US's commitment.

The US is chicken, but not weak. If the US is provoked enough to nuke NoKo the US will warn China that they will be nuked as well. China then has to decide to nuke the US back and this may take the US down but China is finished too. So both the US and China do not want this.

US will have to confront china or else this nautanki will never last. Both US and China know that they cannot nuke each other, is a given. What is not given is that even if NoKo strikes on US, china will also have to bear the brunt. Once hit by nukes from either NoKo or cheen, US cannot be deterred by both together. This should be made absolutely clear.

I think the best outcome will be doing an Osama on Kim. You can bet every intel asset is looking at where Kim is at any given point in time

If this can be achieved then nothing like it. A lot of lives will be saved. But can it be?

[kapilrdave]

US needs to completely de-recognize NoKo nukes and state clearly that it's china's. US also needs to stop giving legitimacy to NoKo and talk directly with china.

I don't disagree, but the moment DT says: The nukes and missiles are China's. So we hold China responsible, and we are going to attack them", he will have declared war on China.

No. I'm not saying that US should declare war against china. I'm recommending to "convince" china of nuclear strike in case any nukes flies from NoKo. That will end this drama very rapidly like it did in doklam. Currently china is just movie watching with pepsi + popcorn with a remote control in hand.

[UlanBatori]

inviting to do pre-emptive strikes (on someone's advice).

That is exactly tbe BIG question:
a) Are they doing this because they have a very nasty surprise in store - going by historical suspender-shivering in US leadership caused by MacArthur/Yalu River/Chosin Rejervoir experience?
b) Are they bluffing that people will be afraid of (a)?

I say the latter because the former (a) is open-ended and leads to total nuclear war where no one "wins". So I think DT should call the bluff and bomb the pakistan out of Kim&gang.

[UlanBatori]

Kapilji, I would think that promise must have been conveyed to Eleven already over the phone. But how to convince when half the senators are in Beijing's pocket and most of the CEOs have their "hearts & minds won over" by Beijing?

[UlanBatori]

What if US were to do an Osirak on NoKo? Then Kim has to decide whether to do a soosai artillery barrage or grin and bare it in GUBO.

[shiv]

No sane nation can do such stuff the way NoKo is doing.
<snip>
aren't these too risky assumptions
<snip>
Again, big assumption for any sane country's comfort.

The game of chicken that NoKo is playing is always based on risky assumptions. Anyone with a fancy for betting might actually make this bet and make the US blink first.

But let me go beyond that into the comparison with India and Pakistan versus NoKo and USA

Any threat of first strike remains an empty threat till it is carried out. That is why India's "No First Use" retaliatory strike option is a different form of the same game of "Chicken" where India tells Pakistan "we dare you to nuke us - we will kick the crap out of you". If India had followed a first strike option with Pakistan, it would allow Pakistan to play with us like NoKo is playing with the US. It would put the onus on India to strike first and you know damn well that such a first strike is very unlikely to come from India. NFU is a game of chicken and Pakistan has to prove they have the balls to hit us first after all the threats they make.

But with the US making wild promises to destroy NoKo and having a clearly enunciated policy of first use of nukes - NoKo has thrown a challenge saying "We are ready to get kicked by you - go on make my day"

And yes - it is "suicidal" but this actually puts the US in a tight spot because using nukes again will change the world forever and make the US very unsafe. I won't say that it will make the world unsafe. For India the world is already unsafe and the US did not give a flying fuk. If the US uses nukes first - then it is licence for any other future nuclear power to launch a first strike nuke at the US and put out 2-3 US cities. Will the US cause a nuclear winter after that? All because they wanted to destroy NoKo and used nukes for that? I doubt it and I am sure Kim has this figured out

But even if we go by that, this is the best case scenario for US. US wouldn't mind a conventional war with NoKo at all. They can still pre-empt nukes with conventional weapons. They can still inflict an unrecoverable damage to NoKo conventionally. Such a war will boost US's conventional deterrence against all rogue states.

That means NoKo has successfully deterred the US from sticking to its own first use policy and that Kim has got it spot on. But conventional war won't cut it IMO.

My guess (as I indicated elsewhere) is that the US might have and could use extremely accurate (JDAM accuracy) subkiloton nukes to take out bunkers and later deny that nukes were used.

[UlanBatori]

Close, but not on bunkers. A nuke strike on a nuclear facility/missile site can be passed off (those who know will know, can't help that, just bluntly deny it) as "sympathetic detonation of poorly-designed illegal nukes following a 400% conventional strike".

[UlanBatori]

All in all, I think the US threat of using nukes is entirely as a deterrent retaliation to nuke use. US has a massive conventional strike capability. The tactical nukes are kept to deter the "Seoul Sea of Fire".

[shiv]

Close, but not on bunkers. A nuke strike on a nuclear facility/missile site can be passed off (those who know will know, can't help that, just bluntly deny it) as "sympathetic detonation of poorly-designed illegal nukes following a 400% conventional strike".

It would be very interesting if the actually did that.

It would be
1. Winnable nuclear war
2. 21st century accuracy+ subkiloton nukes
3. Make large nukes obsolete other than terror weapons in the hands of terror states.

[UlanBatori]

I wonder if the "Yellowstone SuperVolcano" threat can't reversed in a gentle phone call to Eleven. A series of 3 totally deniable large fission bums/ neutron bums focused on that supposed "volcano" where noko conducted their nuke test, at the right time based on wind patterns. The natural radioactivity will be supplemented nicely in a nice Made In China glowing cloud floating over mainland chinese southeast coastal region....... all blamed on Kim's reckless conduct using chinese-supplied thermonukes.

[ramana]

UB, You are talking like Faux news Bolton.
Pity you don't seem to understand the last test significance or those pictures.
Wen Lee supplied designs...
Any wrong move could vaporize lot of East Asia at a minimum.
Yung Un would have issued the orders of incase something happens to him orders...
The threat is if NoKo launches. He won't till he is cornered.
And he is not cornered.
Watch McMaster today.
its now Iran on their mind....

[UlanBatori]

Eleven orders banks out of NoKo?

President Donald Trump claimed Thursday that China has ordered its banks to stop doing business with North Korea -- the rogue regime's principal trading partner.{that sentence sounds like cheen is the rogue regime and noko its main partner. Fleudian srip onree}
"I'm very proud to tell you that as you may have just heard moments ago, China, their central bank has told their other banks --that's a massive banking system-- to immediately stop doing business with North Korea," Trump said at the United Nations alongside South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. "Again, I want to just say and thank President Xi of China for the very bold move he made today {in seeming to GUBO}. That was a somewhat unexpected move and we appreciate it." {translation: }
The remarks came a short time after Trump signed an executive order aimed at companies and financial institutions that do business with North Korea...“Foreign banks will face a clear choice to do business with the United States or facilitate trade with the lawless regime in North Korea,” Trump said.

[UlanBatori]

ramana: if the equation comes down to when Un feels cornered, doesn't that dictate a surprise pre-emptive strike? sorry but no, I don't see the riddle about the last test or pictures. Even Eleven would not give noKo hydrogen bombs to use in a soosai pact, precisely because they don't want the Southeast Chinese coast to glow. They MUST have retained control.

As for Iran show, I think it is all show to impress Bibi (nut&yahoo). No way is US going to strike iran with Putin watching.

[Rudradev]

Wen Lee supplied designs...
.

Now this is all making sense.

Wen Ho Lee, a Chinese-American scientist, transferred the W88 warhead technology to China in 1999. He was apprehended by DOE. But then for some unexplained reason, the Clinton White House, Madeline Halfbright etc. stepped in and deliberately stifled the investigation (in true Clintonista style, virtue-signaling pretexts such as "racial profiling of innocent Chinese-American" were used to cast doubt on the integrity of the investigating agency and, by extension, throw mud on the case they had built).

One can surmise what happened. Clinton and Halfbright were all about "G2" (US-China co-dominium) as the basis for the New World Order. They relaxed rules across the board, letting China take advantage in appalling ways across every field from intellectual property to trade/tariffs to proliferation to politics/diplomacy. One way in which China took unplanned advantage of the new dispensation (which as a rule winked, nodded or turned its back on all Chinese shenanigans) was to steal the W88 and other ultra-modern (for that time) warhead tech.

WEN (pun intended) this pilferage was discovered, Clintonistas had to shut down the investigation to cover up their own effective complicity-by-omission. China not only got the W88 designs, but reportedly also additional data on the warheads that was handed over by the US because Beijing demanded this in exchange for a pledge not to test and operationalize. Amused by the groveling and begging of Clinton and Halfbright not to embarrass them, the Chinese agreed not to build and test their own W88 type weapons for the moment.

Today that "moment" is over. The Chinese have seen (1) US-India CNCA basically making India a de-facto internationally-recognized NWS (2) US sitting by while India perfected Agni IV, V, and VI (unlike in the Clinton days when MTCR sanctions would have been rained upon us). So they feel perfectly justified in testing, perfecting and even improving whatever warhead tech they stole from America in 1998-2000. BUT how to do this without resuming nuke tests themselves, with all the attendant geopolitical consequences? Their solution: outsource to a beta-tester.

Enter Kim Jong Un. And you know the rest.

[Karthik S]

Guys, if Chinese wanted to test their warheads, wouldn't Pak be a safer choice? Using NoKo runs the risk of US strikes, but Pak is a safer bet. I don't think US would have taken Pakis testing nukes now as seriously as they are taking NoKo tests. Primarily because paki missiles can't reach US mainland.

[Rudradev]

^^After 9/11, not at all.

[Karthik S]

How many billions of dollars and weapons the pakis received free of cost after 9/11? Even after OBL was found in pak, nothing changed till the presidential elections last year atleast.

[Rudradev]

How many billions of dollars and weapons the pakis received free of cost after 9/11? Even after OBL was found in pak, nothing changed till the presidential elections last year atleast.

Is giving them $$ and F-16s the same thing as standing by while they test a W88 copy?

W88 is a 500 kT warhead designed specifically for MIRV ICBMs.

In fact EVERY time Pakis have talked at all about nukes since 9/11, they have been very very careful to say things like "we are only developing eentsy-bitsy tiny little tactical weapons on ultra-short-range Nasr to stop Indian Cold Start". And they have not tested even one of those. Why?

[ramana]

RD, Case in point the recent statements by Pak PM about small nukes to deter Cold Start etc...
And plans to use only against invading forces.
No more bluster like Mushy of how he considered nuking Delhi along with LS attack on 13 December 2011.

Also recall that in May 1998, Pak tested a PU bomb at Chagai.
There was no Pu reactor in Pakistan at that time.
Khushab reactor went critical in November 1998.
And Clinton Admin promptly lost the sample in their labs.