India - South & North Korea Thread

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby SSridhar » 28 May 2018 16:27

U.S. and North Korean Officials Race to Resurrect Trump-Kim Meeting - Michael D Shear & David E Sanger, NYT
The United States and North Korea on Sunday kicked off an urgent, behind-the-scenes effort to resurrect a summit meeting between their two leaders by June 12, racing to develop a joint agenda and dispel deep skepticism about the chances for reaching a framework for a lasting nuclear agreement in so little time.

Technical and diplomatic experts from the United States made a rare visit to North Korea to meet with their counterparts, American officials said on Sunday. Before any summit meeting, the American team, led by Sung Kim, a veteran diplomat, is seeking detailed commitments from Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, about his regime’s willingness to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

In a tweet Sunday night, President Trump confirmed the meetings in the North Korean part of Panmunjom, a “truce village” in the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas. He also expressed his administration’s newfound optimism about the meeting, further embracing the conciliatory language both sides have used since he canceled the planned meeting in a bitterly worded letter to Mr. Kim on Thursday.

White House officials said Joe Hagin, a deputy White House chief of staff, is leading a separate delegation in Singapore, where the summit meeting had been scheduled to take place, to work out logistics: when the various meetings would take place, how much would be open to the press, which officials would be in the negotiating rooms, how to handle security concerns.

The simultaneous negotiations in the DMZ and in Singapore signaled an accelerated effort by the governments in both countries to complete the substantive and practical preparations required to get the meeting back on track.

Such issues would typically be handled by a well-established diplomatic process of lower-level negotiations that usually takes months, if not years, before a meeting between the leaders of two nations. But Mr. Trump short-circuited that process in March, when he abruptly accepted an invitation to meet with Mr. Kim.

Now, after just as abruptly canceling the summit meeting, Mr. Trump has — wittingly or not — set in motion a more normal set of discussions to lay the groundwork for an agreement about North Korea’s nuclear weapons program ahead of a decision on whether to hold a meeting between the two leaders after all.

The timeline is still extraordinarily condensed. Mr. Trump’s repeatedly stated desire to keep June 12 as a possible date for a summit meeting means that officials on both sides are rushing to see if the necessary preparations can be completed in a matter of days. Veteran negotiators said it remained unclear whether the two sides could complete enough work to make a meeting possible.


“The president says he’s not going to go until there is substantial agreement. The question is, Is there time to reach that kind of agreement?” said Joseph Y. Yun, a former chief North Korea negotiator at the State Department, who retired in part because of his frustration with his agency’s diminished role. “Right now, the summit is kind of teetering on whether we make progress on those things.”

Two top Republican lawmakers expressed deep misgivings on Sunday about the prospects for a successful summit meeting in just over two weeks, and warned that Mr. Kim would never agree to give up the nuclear weapons his country has spent decades developing.

“I remain convinced that he does not want to denuclearize, in fact he will not denuclearize,” Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, said on ABC’s “This Week.” He dismissed demonstrations of good will by Mr. Kim — including the release of American prisoners and the destruction of a nuclear test site — as meaningless.

“It’s all a show,” Mr. Rubio said. “It’s a show.”

Senator Jeff Flake, Republican of Arizona, echoed Mr. Rubio’s concerns. He said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that a freeze of the country’s weapons program would be progress, but added that “a lot of us have been skeptical that North Korea will ever agree to total denuclearization.”

Veterans of past negotiations with North Korea also expressed concern on Sunday about the possibility that Mr. Kim could demand that in exchange for denuclearization, the United States must withdraw its “nuclear umbrella” that protects South Korea from adversaries.

James R. Clapper Jr., the former director of national intelligence under President Barack Obama, who spent part of his early intelligence career in South Korea, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that such a demand could mean the United States would have to agree not to fly its nuclear-capable bombers “in the Korean Peninsula or in operational proximity.”

It is unclear if Mr. Trump would ever agree to significant restrictions on the American nuclear arsenal.

American officials have said the discussions are progressing well, offering the same kind of optimistic assessment that Mr. Trump has delivered over the past 48 hours.

In brief remarks to reporters on Saturday night, the president said the lower-level negotiations are “going along very well,” though he added his usual caveat: “We’ll see what happens.” On the Korean Peninsula, a surprise meeting between Mr. Kim and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea also produced some progress toward a meeting.

Mr. Moon said Mr. Kim wanted to discuss “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” with Mr. Trump.

“What is not so clear to him is how firmly he can trust the United States’ commitment to ending hostile relations and providing security guarantees for his government, should it denuclearize,” Mr. Moon said on Sunday at a news conference in Seoul, the South Korean capital, the day after the meeting on the North Korean side of Panmunjom.

The answer to that question may hinge on the lower-level discussions going on between representatives of the two countries, {No, Kim would want the assurance to come from the PoTUS, not any lower-level official of the GoTUS. After Iran and after TPP, how do countries trust the US administration, especially the present one?} a fraught process that can sometimes dissolve into disagreement and at other times produce halting progress toward a meeting.

Administration officials say they are under no illusions that the team now in North Korea can negotiate the details to begin to dismantle the sprawling nuclear, missile and biological weapons programs in North Korea — all of which were part of the objective Secretary of State Mike Pompeo laid out recently for the talks. In the case of the Iran deal, a detailed plan struck in 2015 that Mr. Trump abandoned this month as insufficient, the negotiations took more than two years.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 May 2018 19:28

People seem to be hyperventilating here over nothing. I think DT and Kim Young One now understand each other. There is no "security guarantee" that the West can give, that would make any sense to anyone over age 3. It appears clear that Eleven has refused to continue the puppet show unless the nuke toys are taken away. The Libya-Syria-Iraq examples are not relevant, because they didn't have PRC next door. THAT is the nuclear security guarantee. Any "color revolution" efforts inside NoKo will bring swift infusions of 1 million bottles of Baijiu brought by individual armed couriers.

OTOH, with a nuke backdown comes the promise of SoKo aid with the carrot of "reunification". NoKo remembers the inspiring example of the Paris Accords of 1972 (73?) establishing Peace in Vietnam - reunification followed within months with Saigon becoming Ho Chi Minh City. So there is strong hope that Seoul will become Kim Il Sung City.

The US aim is presumably to achieve Reunification on SoKo's terms, while staving off Chinese domination. Perhaps in a few years of contamination with decadent capitarist impeliarist slavery the honorable NoKo proletariat will become as decadent as SoKoreans. Thus the WHOTUS geniuses see the prospect of Revenge for Vietnam. Pyongyang will be renamed Park Chung Hee City. Or just Chung-Hee Park after leveling it.

So it is a Summit between two realists who hope to stab each other in the musharraf. Both are keen to have it, so it will happen. But perhaps there will be one or two or 3 more hiccups before it actually happens.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby SSridhar » 29 May 2018 14:22

North Korea nuclear disarmament could take 15 years, expert warns - Straits Times
As the Trump administration races to start talks with North Korea on what it calls "rapid denuclearisation," a top federal government adviser who has repeatedly visited the North's sprawling atomic complex is warning that the disarmament process could take far longer, up to 15 years.

The adviser, Siegfried S. Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico, and now a Stanford professor, argues that the best the United States can hope for is a phased denuclearisation that goes after the most dangerous parts of the North's programme first.

The disarmament steps and timetable are laid out in a new report, circulated recently in Washington, that Hecker compiled with two colleagues at Stanford's Centre for International Security and Cooperation.

Hecker has toured that nation's secretive labyrinth of nuclear plants four times and remains the only US scientist to see its facility for enriching uranium, a bomb fuel. US intelligence agencies had missed the plant's construction.

Hecker's time frame stands in stark contrast with what the United States initially demanded, on what could be a key sticking point in any summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader.


Two US delegations, one in Singapore and one in North Korea, are attempting to work out a meeting between the two leaders. Trump cancelled the meeting in a letter to Kim on Thursday (May 24) but has been working to reconstitute it ever since, posting Twitter messages that say he is confident the North Korean economy will prosper if an accord is reached.

The delegation in Singapore is discussing the logistics of a meeting, to be held June 12 or afterward. The other, led by Sung Kim, a US diplomat with long North Korea experience, is meeting senior officials of the North Korean Foreign Ministry at the Demilitarised Zone to work on the wording of what kind of communique might be issued by the two leaders. But the White House and State Department have said nothing about the details of those discussions.

In an interview, Hecker said he was making the Stanford study public to advance discussion of a complicated topic that will be at the heart of Trump's encounter with Kim in Singapore, if that meeting happens. So far, the denuclearisation agenda has been a mix of bold claims by the administration about what it will demand, and vague generalities from the North.

"We're talking about dozens of sites, hundreds of buildings, and thousands of people," Hecker said on Friday (May 25).

The key to dismantling the sprawling atomic complex, begun six decades ago, Hecker added, "is to establish a different relationship with North Korea where its security rests on something other than nuclear weapons."

Hecker cautioned that his team's road map left room for many knotty points of negotiation - such as where to draw the line between civilian and military nuclear activities. At first, the Trump administration said the North must give up all enrichment of uranium, which can fuel not only bombs but reactors that illuminate cities.

Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said for the first time that he needed some "negotiating space" on that question.

But Trump exited the Iran nuclear deal this month because it allowed the country to produce atomic fuel after 2030, which he said was an unacceptable risk. It is unclear how he could ban Iran from peaceful production, yet allow North Korea to do the same.

Hecker said a similar open question was whether to let the North's rocket engineers, now making long-range missiles, redirect their skills into a peaceful space programme.

"They're not going to eliminate everything, and there're some things that aren't a problem," Hecker said. "Some of the risks are manageable."


In its report, the Stanford team sees three overlapping phases of denuclearisation activity that, in total, would take 10 years. The initial phase, taking up to a year, is the halt of military, industrial and personnel operations. The second, taking up to five years, is the winding down of sites, facilities and weapons. The final and hardest phase, taking up to 10 years, is the elimination or limiting of factories and programmes.

Hecker noted that the decontamination and decommissioning of a single plant that handles radioactive materials could take a decade or more.

In an interview on Sunday, Hecker said his personal denuclearisation estimate ran to 15 years given the tangle of political and technical uncertainties that the United States and North Korea would face if they went ahead and sought a historic accord.

The road map, which was posted late Monday on a Stanford website and was circulated to some administration officials and members of Congress, underscores the complexity of the task at hand: While politicians and cable news commentators use the shorthand of the North surrendering its nuclear arms, the road map makes clear that denuclearisation would be a vast undertaking that involved the shuttering of large industrial plants and decades of detailed inspections.

The Trump administration has made public no details of what particular steps it sees for the North's denuclearisation, or what it intends to demand if Trump meets with Kim. Its bottom line is that denuclearization must be complete, verifiable and irreversible.

Trump's hawkish national security adviser, John R. Bolton, argued before joining the administration in April that the president should use a summit meeting exclusively to tell North Korea to dismantle and deliver up all its nuclear arms and equipment, saying only then should the United States discuss easing sanctions and participating in the North's economic development.

In recent television and radio interviews, Bolton has advocated quick denuclearisation in which the North would send its weapons and equipment to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, where nuclear inspectors in 2004 shipped some of Libya's gear for enriching uranium. Bolton has repeatedly cited Libya as a role model for the North's atomic disarmament.

In the interview, Hecker argued that the only safe way to disassemble the North's nuclear warheads was to have the job done by the same North Korean engineers who built them.

Trump, in contrast to Bolton's public stance, twice last week opened the door to phased denuclearisation, saying the North might find it impossible to dismantle its entire nuclear programme in one step.


Hecker comes to the issue with decades of experience in learning about foreign nuclear programmes and managing their phased reductions.

After the Cold War, as the Los Alamos director, he fostered wide cooperation between US and Russian nuclear laboratories to secure and safeguard vast stockpiles of ex-Soviet nuclear materials. His 2016 book, Doomed To Cooperate, details the long collaboration.

Hecker made his first visit to the North's sprawling Yongbyon nuclear site in 2004, with follow-up visits in 2007, 2008 and 2010, learning more than any other Western expert about the North's secretive atomic doings. Since then, he has emerged publicly as one of the world's most knowledgeable experts on its nuclear programme.

His co-author Robert L. Carlin, a former CIA analyst and State Department intelligence official who has travelled to North Korea more than 30 times, is frequently cited as an expert on the North Korean leadership. The third author is Elliot A. Serbin, a senior fellow at the Stanford centre and a research assistant to Hecker.

The team divides up the North's nuclear programme into eight general categories and 22 subgroups. The range is wide. It includes not just plants and facilities but related issues such as ending the North's missile and nuclear exports and redirecting its technical experts from military to civilian work.

Plutonium fuel for atom bombs is especially frequently mentioned. The radioactive metal is considered the founding step for aggressive programmes set on making a variety of nuclear arms.

Producing it is easier than purifying uranium, and it takes far less plutonium to make a blast of equal size. Atop a missile, all else being equal, the reduced weight means warheads fuelled by plutonium can fly longer distances, making them more threatening. Plutonium is also ideal for igniting the thermonuclear fuel of H-bombs.

The Stanford team recommends six ways to curb the North's plutonium complex, targeting Yongbyon, the secretive site that Hecker has repeatedly visited.

For instance, the team calls for the dismantlement of the North's 5-megawatt reactor for making plutonium. It began operating in 1986, and Western experts say it produced the fuel for the North's first atom bombs.

The team is less categorical in recommendations for a large new reactor, known as the experimental light-water reactor, being started up at Yongbyon. Since the plant can make electrical power for civilians, the team suggests the reactor needs to be closely inspected before its fate is negotiated.

The team calls for the North to join two global accords meant to halt the making of nuclear arms and the means of delivering them. The pacts are the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which the North once observed, and the Missile Technology Control Regime. {MTCR of which even NoKo's patron China is not a member !!} Its member states coordinate export licensing to curb the spread of long-range missiles that can deliver weapons of mass destruction.

"We're going to have some people argue with us," Hecker said of how technical experts were likely to react to the team's recommendations. "That's OK."

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 31 May 2018 13:28

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... it-n878691
Pompeo dines with Kim aide to save Trump's North Korean summit
Kim Yong Chol has been sanctioned by the Treasury over the Sony cyberattack and is accused of being behind the sinking of a South Korean navy ship.
by Andrea Mitchell, Abigail Williams and Haley Talbot / May.30.2018 / 1:49 PM ET / Updated May.31.2018 / 12:27 AM ET
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo dined with Kim Jong Un's right-hand man on Wednesday night in an effort to salvage President Donald Trump's summit with North Korea.
Filet mignon was on the menu after Kim Yong Chol jetted into to New York earlier in the day. He is the highest-ranking official to visit the U.S. from Pyongyang since October 2000, when President Bill Clinton was considering normalizing relations with North Korea. Their working dinner at a government residence in a private midtown Manhattan building lasted about 90 minutes.
Kim Yong Chol is a former intelligence chief and current vice chairman of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party.
He has been sanctioned by the Treasury for North Korea's 2014 cyberattack on Sony Pictures, supposedly prompted by the studio's film "The Interview," which ridiculed the country's ruling Kim clan. South Korea claims that he was also responsible for the 2010 sinking of a navy ship, which killed 46 sailors.
Kim Yong Chol is also blamed for trading in proscribed conventional arms, and is known as the toughest negotiator at previous nuclear arms talks with the U.S.
....
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 03 Jun 2018 16:02

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/worl ... ctionfront
NEWS ANALYSIS
Trump Veers to a Korea Plan That Echoes Failures of the Past
By Mark Landler and David E. Sanger
June 2, 2018
WASHINGTON — President Trump never tires of pointing out that his predecessors left him the “mess” of a nuclear-armed North Korea — a legacy of errors he vows not to repeat.
But as Mr. Trump announced Friday that his summit meeting with Kim Jong-un was back on, there were moments when he echoed Bill Clinton in his failed effort to settle another North Korea crisis nearly a quarter century ago.
Rather than sticking with the demand that North Korea disarm immediately, Mr. Trump opened the door to a prolonged freeze on the North’s existing nuclear capability, with vague declarations that disarmament will follow. That is essentially the deal Mr. Clinton embarked on with Mr. Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, in 1994.
Rather than warning that he would keep the younger Mr. Kim’s feet to the fire with sanctions until he complies, Mr. Trump said after meeting in the Oval Office with North Korea’s spy chief that he no longer wanted to use the term “maximum pressure,” a phrase drilled into the vocabulary of his aides for the past year. And rather than keeping a single-minded focus on nuclear weapons, Mr. Trump suggested that the most tangible outcome of his meeting in Singapore might be some kind of peace agreement to formally end the Korean War — a lofty idea that featured in a 2005 joint statement that inaugurated George W. Bush’s failed effort with Kim Jong-il, the current leader’s father, to halt the North’s nuclear progress.
Such comparisons are always inexact, because Mr. Trump has inherited a far more complex, potentially catastrophic, problem than his predecessors faced: a North Korea that has solved the mysteries of manufacturing a nuclear bomb, tested one with 15 times the power of the blast that leveled Hiroshima, and is now on the brink of proving its missiles could reach the continental United States.
Still, if Mr. Trump’s remarks on Friday are a blueprint for how he plans to negotiate with Mr. Kim, they foreshadow a process that would resemble — rather than reinvent — those undertaken by Mr. Clinton and Mr. Bush.
“This is the way it’s supposed to go,” said Victor D. Cha, who negotiated with North Korea for Mr. Bush and was considered by the Trump administration as ambassador to Seoul. “The question is: Does Trump understand that this is what has been done in the past — that what he’s doing is not big-bang historic?”In one way, of course, it is big-bang historic: No North Korean leader has ever met an American president as an equal. For Mr. Kim, that achievement alone will give the 34-year-old leader incalculable prestige in his broken country. For his part, Mr. Trump sees the meeting as a historic opportunity to use his dealmaker’s skills and personal connections to bridge gaps that his predecessors could not close.
....
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 04 Jun 2018 22:30

Sanger et al are failed experts from the established chatteratti.
Not holding to maximum pressure means Trump wants to ensure In is there to complete the negotiations.

Un is able to come to the table as he has something to negotiate.
Earlier NoKo had nothing to offer.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 04 Jun 2018 22:34

Instead of constant posting opiated headlines why not work on what would be the contours of a peace treaty in Korean Peninsula would look like?
1) What does North Korea want?
2) What does South Korea want?
3) What does US want?
4) What does China want?
5) What does Japan want?
6) And what does Russia want?

Lets list the wants of the six.
Then lets see what is acceptable to all parties in these six sets of wants.

The Venn diagram will be the peace treaty.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 04 Jun 2018 23:56

Ramanaji,
I do not like to give personal opinion in these matters. But I will make an exception in this case:
1. North Korea is just playing the old game. It is trying to get more time to develop its weapons and will agree to anything now and then break the agreement. NK wants more time. They have done this earlier and there no reason for them to change tactics. They have no reason to disarm after investing so much in nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Whatever NK is doing, they have implicit support from China.
2. Trump needs a foreign affairs victory at any cost to show his core support that he can do deals. He is not concerned with long term effects of any deal with NK. A photo opp is what he wants. He is distracted with Mueller probes. Old Korea hands do not work for Trump. He does not understand the complicated Asian issues. But when do issues of Asians mattered to Trump or the US? With Bolton advising him, he might get drawn into a war, without realizing the consequences. Who knows, Trump may fancy himself as a Great War lord such as FDR and say bring it on.
3 & 4. South Korea and Japan will have to agree with Trump’s deals whatever it is, they do not have a choice at this stage of the game. They were not consulted about the summit being cancelled and are afraid of what Trump may agree. However, US stance on NK serve to let SK and Japan know how US interests are no longer serving their interests. As China gets stronger and the US umbrella weaker, SK and Japan may change their NK/China stance and become neutral.
5. China controls NK. NK is a ready danda to beat up US, SK and Japan. NK must exist in this state and never become a part of SK. But as China grows stronger, it may not be in its interests to let chaos continue. So, there will be a limit to NK’s actions. As long as NK is undermining the US and splitting its allies, it will be allowed to continue. China needs a few years of peace and will not go for a direct war. But it will support NK if attacked by the US.
6. Russia will not let NK get isolated and will support China. Russia wants US to stay engaged in Asia and that will give space for Russia to function better in Europe and Middle East. If NK toes the US line and disarms, things may get worse for Russia in other parts of the world. At this moment US allies in Europe are venting on Trump’s trade war and NATO is no longer sure that the US will support it unconditionally as in the past. This must be a relief to Russia.
It is my opinion that this summit between NK and the US will not bring peace in US terms.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 05 Jun 2018 00:37

Gautam,

Thanks for the effort.
How about the others/rest?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 05 Jun 2018 02:26

Sirji,
I am only worried about India. Without India, what goes my father in this game?
India must stay out of any war. We were forced into WWI and WWII. We were rewarded with inflation that persists, not to speak of loss of lives. We need to grow and I think Modi has bought peace even though it may be temporary. If there is a war in Asia, we will be involved in some way. If war breaks out, we have to be in the winning side.
I am also watching the German news channel Tasgesthemen/Tagesschau. The threat of duty on Marcedes and BMW have hit the German on their testicles and there are screaming. CNN is just now talking about Macron and May's calls to Trump. See:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/04/politics ... index.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... le-n879366
Interesting times.
Gautam

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 08 Jun 2018 23:33

Image

:rotfl:

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 11 Jun 2018 00:17

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/10/worl ... v=top-news
Before Kim Meets Trump, China Gets Jittery About North Korea’s Intentions
By Jane Perlez
June 10, 2018
BEIJING — In the sudden rush of diplomacy involving North Korea, China has appeared to have the upper hand, hosting the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, twice before his long-anticipated Singapore summit meeting with President Trump even begins. Yet as Mr. Kim prepares to finally meet Mr. Trump in Singapore on Tuesday, some analysts say Beijing appears to be getting a sudden case of the jitters.
They say the Chinese leaders, who are unused to being on the outside looking in, are growing anxious about whether they can keep their Cold War-era ally firmly in its current orbit around China. Leaders in Beijing are worried, experts say, that Mr. Kim might try to counterbalance China’s influence by embracing the United States, North Korea’s longtime enemy.
According to analysts, Mr. Kim may seek to do this by offering Mr. Trump some sort of deal, which would probably include some pledge to scrap his nuclear arsenal in exchange for American help to reduce or even eliminate North Korea’s near total dependence on China.
“If you look at history, North Korea is not sure of China, and has a kind of revenge mentality,” said Shen Zhihua, a prominent Chinese historian on North Korea. “The worst outcome is that the United States, South Korea and North Korea all get together and China gets knocked out.”
Analysts said China worried that the United States could also use the Singapore meeting to engineer a united Korean Peninsula that joins the North with South Korea, one of Washington’s closest allies. For China, that raises the uncomfortable specter of American troops on China’s doorstep, erasing North Korea’s traditional role as a buffer. There is even the remote possibility that North Korea could flip allegiances, just as China did in 1972. When President Richard Nixon visited Beijing that year, Mao Zedong dumped China’s partnership with the Soviet Union in favor of friendship with the United States. Some analysts ask whether the United States could now flip North Korea to its side and away from China.“China can see some shocking resemblance to Nixon coming to China with Trump and North Korea,” said Yun Sun, a China analyst at the Washington-based Stimson Center. “If China could do it, why not North Korea?”
......
Gautam
PS I do not think so. NK relies far more on China than China did on Russia. This is something the US wants. But who am I to argue with NYT?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Neshant » 11 Jun 2018 08:17

Invite Kim Jong Un to India.

Or at the very least, have Modi visit North Korea.

China is involved in our neighborhood, the least we can do is reciprocate.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Jun 2018 00:14

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/worl ... tions.html
NEWS ANALYSIS
For All His Deals, Trump Has Never Faced an Adversary Like Kim Jong-un
By David E. Sanger and Choe Sang-Hun
June 11, 2018
SINGAPORE — President Trump has imagined himself at the center of high-stakes nuclear negotiations since at least the mid-1980s, when he tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade the Reagan administration that it needed a New York real estate deal maker to lead arms-control talks with the Soviet Union. When, in 1989, he ran into the man who filled that job for President George H.W. Bush, he had a bit of negotiating advice: Arrive late, poke your finger into your adversary’s chest and swear at him with a vulgar insult, he told Richard R. Burt.
Now, Mr. Trump finally has a nuclear negotiation of his own to conduct, not with the Russians, but with a North Korean leader half his age, Kim Jong-un, the country’s volatile, repressive leader.
But at Tuesday’s summit meeting, Mr. Trump seems certain not to follow his own advice on how to handle the talks, which involve a nuclear arsenal that is much smaller but in some ways scarier, because of North Korea’s unpredictability, than what threatened the United States during the Cold War.
Mr. Trump has arrived in Singapore bringing offers of a peace treaty, an American diplomatic presence in Pyongyang and economic aid, including burger joints in the North, rather than jabs and threats. And for all his boasts about his deal-making prowess, Mr. Trump has never been in a face-off with an adversary like this one, a ruthless dictator who has imprisoned huge numbers of his citizens in brutal gulags and summarily executed or assassinated challengers. He has also never been in a negotiation with the risks of failure so stark.
Neither has Mr. Kim, who, until this year, had never met with another world leader nor left his country as head of state. He will be surrounded, however, by officials who have worn down the United States in one stalemate after another for decades.
Both his father and grandfather agreed, as far back as 1994, to trade away their country’s atomic ambitions for energy, aid and the North’s reintegration with the world. All those agreements started with immense promise, and ultimately failed. How Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim — both thin-skinned and eager never to show weakness — will interact is the great drama of the summit meeting.
....
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 12 Jun 2018 04:29

Two more hours to the summit.
First minute no staff.
Next staff allowed.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Aarvee » 12 Jun 2018 07:16

For all of DT's illogical methods/utterings, with this meeting, him+SK's moon+and supreme leader kim, imho, are worthy of a noble peace prize :D more than ombaba

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby srin » 12 Jun 2018 08:40

The most curious question is: why Singapore ? Since DPRK seems to be a chinese poodle, and the summit was on their terms so to speak, they could have easily have met in China. Is all not well between PRC and DPRK ?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Jun 2018 08:58

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 685206002/
Why was Singapore chosen for Trump-Kim summit? High security
Thomas Maresca, Special for USA TODAY Published 1:47 p.m. ET June 8, 2018
SEOUL — If there’s anything Singapore is known for, it’s law and order.
The wealthy city-state of 5.5 million famously fines people thousands of dollars for littering, has banned chewing gum from the streets and still uses caning as a punishment for minor crimes.
Singapore’s security is also legendary, which is one major reason it was selected for the historic summit meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which will be held on Tuesday at the five-star Capella Resort on Sentosa Island.
The country has pulled off other high-stakes meetings in the past, including a 2015 summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan's president at the time, Ma Ying-jeou. Singapore also hosts a major annual defense conference every year that draws political leaders and military brass from around the world.
But the meeting between Trump and Kim is unprecedented, and Singapore is pulling out all the stops to ensure the summit runs smoothly.
.....
Gautam
PS China? China signaled its presence by supplying the aircraft from Air China. Everyone knows that 90% of NK's trade is with China.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 12 Jun 2018 09:41

^^^Singapore is a police state where the inhabitants are well off.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Neshant » 12 Jun 2018 09:42

Who'd be stupid enough to give up nukes.

Libya did so and promptly got invaded by NATO with its gold, foreign investments, cash reserves and oil & gas wealth all stolen.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 12 Jun 2018 10:02

Aarvee wrote:For all of DT's illogical methods/utterings, with this meeting, him+SK's moon+and supreme leader kim, imho, are worthy of a noble peace prize :D more than ombaba


What? Lets not forget Dennis Rodman.....since we are in a generous mood

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jun 2018 10:31

Think of Kim Young One as a 250-lb warhead of the PLA. Delivered by PLAF.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jun 2018 10:37

North Korea summit: Trump says meeting went "better than anybody could have expected" — live updates
Wow! There is video of DT and KJU actually talking.

"A Signing". Speculation on whether it was a cup or a dinner plate or a Peace Treaty for the Korean War.

UBCN Special Forces picked up the First Minute conversation.

POTUS: Hello there you fat S.O.B.!
NoKoTranslatorBibi: Oh Great Leader and Son Of an Also Great Leader, hope you have slept well.

KJU: Stupid Roundeyed Dotard, hope you caught diahorhea?
US CIA Translator: Dear Respected Senior Leader, we hope you are able to communicate through mouth and Twitter as prolifically as usual?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jun 2018 10:48

Flash: Signing Seems Imminent. [/size]

UBCN Preview:
The Capitalist Imperialist US Dotard and the Crazy RocketMan-led Suicidal Dump agree to condemn (a) NATO, (b) G-7, (c) Southern LapDogs, (d) Beijing Capitarist Running Dogs.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jun 2018 11:20

Signing over. The Dotard and the FAtBoy Rocketman trooped out, patting each other on the back on the way. Made for each other. :rotfl:

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Aarvee » 12 Jun 2018 12:47

Cain Marko wrote:What? Lets not forget Dennis Rodman.....since we are in a generous mood


I am not suggesting they deserve one, I am just saying they do so "more" than ombaba, who got the piece prize just for becoming pot us. :D

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 12 Jun 2018 13:13

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/11/worl ... dates.html
Live Updates: Trump and Kim Jong-un Sign Document in Singapore
President Trump on Tuesday concluded a historic meeting with Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, and said the process to denuclearize the North would begin “very quickly.” The men signed a joint statement, which Mr. Trump described as “comprehensive,” before Mr. Kim left Singapore’s Sentosa Island and the president prepared for a news conference.
The meeting between the two men in Singapore was the first of its kind between a sitting American president and a leader of North Korea, and opened the door to ending seven decades of hostility and the threat of a nuclear confrontation. “We had a historic meeting and decided to leave the past behind,” Mr. Kim said as they signed a document, adding “the world will see a major change.” Mr. Trump was similarly optimistic about the progress they achieved, saying: “We are going to take care of a very big and very dangerous problem for the world.”
Here’s what has happened so far:
• The two leaders first met privately for less than an hour in a one-on-one session with interpreters present, before breaking off for a larger meeting and then a working lunch with aides.
• After lunch, the two leaders took a stroll and briefly addressed the news media as they headed to a signing ceremony. Mr. Trump said the meeting was “going great.” He added: “We had a really fantastic meeting.” Mr. Trump gave Mr. Kim a rare view inside his presidential limousine, nicknamed the Beast.
• The leaders then signed a joint statement, in which the United States committed to providing guarantees of security to North Korea in exchange for denuclearization.
Joint statement promises bold change, but lacks details
In the joint statement, Mr. Trump “committed to provide security guarantees” to North Korea. Mr. Kim “reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
But the statement was short on details and it was not immediately clear whether the two leaders had signed another document laying out potential next steps or a timetable. The joint statement was not immediately released to reporters, but it was legible in a photo of Mr. Trump holding it up at the ceremony. The statement said the two nations would hold “follow-on negotiations” led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a high-level North Korean official “at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes” of the summit meeting.
The statement also said the two nations would “join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime” on the divided Korean Peninsula, meaning talks to reduce military tensions that could eventually lead to a formal peace treaty to end the Korean War.
.....
Gautam
I guess the Devil is in the details.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby souravB » 12 Jun 2018 15:09

It's great that NoKo wants to get back in the fold (though I am skeptical since they have made a**hats of the world before), can any Guru enlighten me please about the implications of it vis a vis Bharat?
As I recall they do have a very good record of weapon tech smuggling perpetrated with Bakistan, and with them having diplomatic relations now I shiver at the implications. At least while on sanctions people had one eye on their activities.
US might provide security but a country as poor as NoKo will need money and the only thing they have for sell is their above average Weapons tech.
or worse they might become a conduit of advanced weaponry sale for China which being a responsible nation is not allowed for them to sell.
I get it used be done before too covertly, but there is a limit on the covert operations. But now it can be done both overt+covert and weapon sell is certainly going to increase.
Then there are the half baked nukes, which will not be interesting to nations but a number of 'Non State Actors'.
Poverty and hunger takes you to great length.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jun 2018 16:28

UBCN Flash:

Several members of the North Korean Negotiating Team were seen wearing clothes that were a bit too big for them, but cut in American style. Meanwhile, the US Negotiating Team were seen leaving Singapore wearing what was described as "extremely casual" outfits, many in their underwear. One was seen wearing plastic bags over his feet, lacking shoes. The DPRK delegation were seen hauling exceptionally heavy and bulky "diplomatic bags".

Asked about the talks, they remared very cryptically that
We debriefed the roundeyes.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Jun 2018 17:26

The reality of American racism makes Ombaba getting the Nobel Prize just for getting elected quite appropriate.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby abhijitm » 12 Jun 2018 17:54

Until yesterday NK was threatening US and suddenly this change of heart is too good to believe. Like you have won a lottery scam.

We need to connect the dots of events that transpired in last 2 years. This looks like the west against trump with Russia working behind the scene. With Saudis now calmed down by Trump rejecting Iran deal and Russia making a deal with Saudis (which saw crude oil prices soar) they have turned the table on West in Syria. Erdagon is now with Russia. With Trump standing against all Western leaders this NK deal gives him a solid moral victory in public eyes over the stubborn western leaders... even though the deal could mean nothing in long term.

Also NK is only dubious reason for US to keep thousands of soldiers in SK and Japan, also THAAD. It would be interesting to see if Trumps start american withdrawal from that region. Good victory for Russia/China.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby rsingh » 12 Jun 2018 18:02

My take:
China: out classed and outsmarted. For the moment.
US: very courageous move.Nothing to loose.
NK: once in life time chance to come to the real world.
Once NK is bit prosperous it will stop foolish things like missile exports. There will be other things to export.
But I am not sure about dear leader's temperament.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby IndraD » 12 Jun 2018 18:30

agree ^
But in a politically fluid atmosphere no one knows how long will US respect Noko denuclearisation as foregin policy, for example Trump scrapped Iran deal after Obama is gone.
Does Noko really want to come out of Cheen influence only time will tell..
THis is also possible CHina has got Noko under its control firmly and if things don't go cheena way a regime change is executed.
So far we have no clue who is the second person after Kim Jo in Noko
Soko suspiciously said it is unaware of deals between US & Soko. Not trusting Noko entirely when it comes to military matters.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 12 Jun 2018 18:39

Ultimately it is a realization that stationing massive troop presence and aircraft carrier groups and fleets of bombers, all go only so far. Also, the big mijjiles basically neutralize each other, no one cares about having 2000 left over after both sides are reduced to glowing cinders.

So it's back to economic muscle-flexing.
Yes, we think Russia is the winner here: Cheen influence greatly reduced in NoKo, now cheen is being grouped with SoKo as bystanders. Japan marginalized. No mention of Russia but Putin is going ahead with infrastructure construction to expand trade with NoKo by a big factor.

Kim Chubby One looked tired. Glad to take the offer to de-escalate and try to get out from in between the Big Powers. The obvious big Yeti In the Room is the prospect of a coup in Pyongyang.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Kashi » 12 Jun 2018 18:51

Recently there have been reports that Cheen has been scaling back its security presence and crackdown on the (illegal) border transactions between NoKo and China. As a result, huge amounts of NoKo coal and sea food have started making a reappearance in Liaoning (the Cheeni province bordering NoKo) markets.

If Cheen felt truly marginalised, wouldn't they actually clamp down harder on the NoKo lifeline to squeeze some Paetku testimonials?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby abhijitm » 12 Jun 2018 19:13

Kim overture is not possible without blessing from China and Russia. China will not mix trade war with NK issue. However, it will use it to get leverage on south china sea.

Japan is the biggest loser in this. They need NK always hot so that US will keep its presence in the region. Would be interesting to watch Abe's reaction as this unfolds.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby abhijitm » 12 Jun 2018 19:19

Trump has 2.5 years left. I am suspecting few such very surprising events will unfold in coming months.

God forbid, but I fear one fine day I will wake up and read news that Taliban wants to lay down arms and live peacefully, and gives credit to Trump just to bait Trump to pack up from Afghanistan.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 12 Jun 2018 22:23

souravB,
I think in US the globalist lobby that came to power in early 90s that hoodwinked/Nelson eye to NoKo missile transfers to Pak is capped.
Soon will be rolled back and eliminated.

The corollary is the AQK centrifuges and HEU bum design from Pak in trade didn't work.

Young One restarted fresh and got here.

Those purges could be of those who bought the shoddy stuff.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 13 Jun 2018 00:36

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white- ... ne-n882326
Trump's summit military concession to Kim surprises everyone
North Korea has previously called the joint drills a "grave provocation" that could escalate the region "to the brink of nuclear war."
by Alexander Smith / Jun.12.2018
When President Donald Trump agreed to pause military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea on Tuesday, he gave Kim Jong Un a concession on an issue that has angered North Korea like few others. Pyongyang has long said it views such joint drills as preparation for an invasion.
The president's revelation that he planned to put the "war games" on hold was part of the agreement with Kim to work "toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." "Under the circumstances that we're negotiating a very comprehensive complete deal, I think it's inappropriate to be having war games," Trump told reporters.
He also described the exercises as "very provocative" and said the move would "save us a tremendous amount of money. The next round of the joint drills were due to be held in August. But both the Pentagon and South Korea's military appeared to have blindsided by Trump's statement.
U.S. Forces Korea said it had "received no updated guidance," and Seoul said it would need to clarify the "intention behind his comments."
Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, suggested Trump had offered more to Kim than he needed to.
Around 28,000 U.S. troops are based in South Korea. The U.S. and its allies maintain the drills are purely defensive in nature.
As well as putting the North on edge, the drills highlight the gulf between the capabilities of the South Korean military and its advanced U.S. ally, and the sizable but aging North Korean forces.
In December, joint exercises named Vigilant Ace involved some 230 planes and 12,000 U.S. military personnel in what was described as "a realistic air combat exercise."Pyongyang saw things differently, labeling the drills as a "grave provocation" that threatened to escalate the region "to the brink of nuclear war."
....
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/12/politics ... index.html
READ: Full text of Trump-Kim signed statement
June 12, 2018
Joint Statement of President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea at the Singapore Summit
President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.
President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new US-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
.......
Gautam

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby rsingh » 13 Jun 2018 00:59

One interesting thing about DT press conference. He announced "meanwhile sanctions stay".These sanctions were imposed by UN and not by US. Who gave him power to speak on behalf of world. DT body language and speech showed as if he is representing world in negotiations with aliens. On a funny note, there is resemblance between DT and Moussolini ( speech style ).


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