India - South & North Korea Thread

[Karthik S]

Time for Japan to go Nuclear themselves.

Another impotent sheep country . If they could they would have long ago. They should shut up and not expect any sympathy

That's a bit harsh Singha ji, Japanese are anything but impotent. They produced some of the most feared warrior races in the history. Just that they need to come out of their massive guilt complex.

[shiv]

Actually there is no use Japan and SoKo going nuclear. Are they going to nuke NoKo or simply wave dick about - which is the usual activity of countries with nuclear weapons.

Dick waving helps in preventing other nuclear weapons powers from attacking you, but will you attack another nuclear power? The record of history is no more than waving it about.

One can game this as follows:

Is NoKo afraid of being attacked by one or more of many hostile nations? yes
So how to scare them off? Wave nuke weapons about.
What if the other nations don't get scared? Nonsense. They are scared
Will NoKo use nuclear weapons? Probably not

JMT

[Gyan]

Japan and South Korea are impotent and coward nations. They need to impose sanctions on CHINA or atleast stop funding it. BUT Chinese Intel has bought out the elite in these nations and they are happy to sacrifice their national interest for temporary corporate benefits.

[Patni]

The timing sure is curious!! The Korean T-device is chini surrogate. I feel China wants both north Korea n Pakistan in t-bomb club along with ICBM capable of reaching USA.

[sum]

NoKo has claimed to have successfully detonated a H bomb and released pics of its missile fitting warheads too.

[Singha]

the shape of the device Kim is looking at exactly matches the dual peanut shape of a traditional H bomb


given that its 101% a proxy cheeni+paki test, we need to shed our suicidal tendencies and test a adequate range of H-weapons from the 250kt to 1MT range to certify our paper designs and theories

[rgosain]

the shape of the device Kim is looking at exactly matches the dual peanut shape of a traditional H bomb


given that its 101% a proxy cheeni+paki test, we need to shed our suicidal tendencies and test a adequate range of H-weapons from the 250kt to 1MT range to certify our paper designs and theories

Exactly.
I was the first to say so on this forum back in 2002, pointing out that the H-devices are the w88 designs gifted to the PRC by the Clintons during their strategic partnership exactly 20 years ago. China has been using the DPRK to proof these devices and the neutron bomb stolen from the US during the same period, and of course the entire reams of code obtained from the US during the CTBT negotiation which was an attempt to denuke India.

[Singha]

claims on web from physicists range from 140KT to 1MT.
it seems Cheens first TN device was 50kt, so lower side of yield is not necessarily a boosted fission or pure fission. the beauty of TN is it permits good scaling up without too much new science. the tsar bomba was a 'ring' of proved smaller tn-devices because timelines were tight and nobody had the time to proof bigger 1-piece designs..

[UlanBatori]

This was after all, the red line, hain? Both ICBM and proven H-bum, within days of each other. Trump has a very short window to put up or shut up. An attack now could be framed as pre-emptive to stop installation of the warheads on missiles. Needs to take out at least the submarines, the launching stations big enough to handle ICBMs/IRBMs, and the artillery sites facing SoKo, in one swift attack. Give Seoul 5 hours to evacuate, probably set off a chemical fire in a factory or a tanker/truck explosion as reason for evacuation.

[UlanBatori]

See about Frankfurt evacuating 60K ppl for a bomb disposal: evacuating 10 million is harder no doubt, but Korea has good roads.

In a few hours the main deterrent that NoKo possesses, can be removed, leaving their artillery sites exposed to massive attack along with the rest of NoKo.

[sum]

Sorry saar but honestly not going to happen.

People hardly even care about NoKo news these days and the SoKo govt will make even UPA govt look like hardliners.

I think the NoKo/Chinese have managed to cross the line into deterrence just like TSP did in the 90s and slowly, all feasible military options against them will slowly wither away

[schinnas]

While Cheen propping up Pakistan and NoKo happened for different reasons and each partnership has its own strategic utility vs India and US + Japan respectively, I expect that Cheen is now evolving a policy of strategic depth where in these Munna states will be used for a second strike capability in the event of a crippling first strike against mainland.

That explains why Cheen is happy to let top line missile and nuke technology proliferate to these two "rougue" states. Between NoKo and Pukiland, China fully controls NoKo as it controls nearly all of its trade and security. However, Pukis have other options and Cheen is never comfortable with islamists running around in Pukiland. There is no predicting what a mulla might think.

So expect NoKo to be the test bed and reliable second strike formation for Cheen. Pukiland may get there but only if there are enough Cheen boots on the ground with a cheeni naval and air Base in Pukiland to guarantee second strike.

Pukistan will not "test" it's IRBMs and ICBMs for fear of antogonising it's other father's but they will soon get those kits along with Cheeni engineers to help in assembly. It's going to be difficult to track all the containers that go through Karakoram highway.

[anupmisra]

NoKo has claimed to have successfully detonated a H bomb and released pics of its missile fitting warheads too.

Enter stage "center left" - eleven gin pegs, who will, in the nick of time (timed of course with the 19th National Congress meeting in October) defuse the noookilear crisis of Confucian proportions (mind you, of its own making) and shine out like a lonely but worldly beacon of hope, peace and prosperity for the hopeless and the forlorn (er, that's the rest of you).

Another eleven years, I say! Eleven!

[Philip]

XI Gins Pig! Well grattters to Comrade Young Leader Kim,for his latest N-achievement.He certainly is selling some v.hot kimchi! The biggest mistake that Trump and the US is making is in giving him space.Every day the west bashes him,and that lunatic FM of the UK,BoJo-who says that "everything is on the cards",would not talk like that if the UK was an island as near to NoKo as Japan is! If the US strikes NoKo with a WMD,then it is goodbye to SoKo (N-tipped arty shells enough),Japan and who knows,perhaps a NoKo ICBM could sneak through US ABM systems and make much merriment of Hawaii,Guam or the Dear Lord forbid,even the west coast of the US.

What China's reaction to an attack on NoKo will also be is a matter of concern.For its troublesome close ally,the only other being Pak,being wasted by the US,would be a massive loss of face for it.The Chinese could then take it out on US allies if it wishes ,be given tacit support by Russia and we would have WW3 at the ready. The asinine decision by the US to close Ru consulates,search their premises ,treating diplomatic staff worse than Islamist refugees, is a most uncivilised and barbaric display by the nation that prides itself on its culture,civility,etc.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09 ... lear-test/

Trump condemns rogue nation as North Korea detonates sixth and most powerful nuclear test
North Korea detonate sixth and most powerful nuclear test

David Millward, us correspondent Neil Connor, beijing
3 SEPTEMBER 2017 • 12:41PM
North Korea claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb, says it was a 'complete success'
Japan, South Korea and China criticise the test
China Earthquake Administration reports "massive explosion"
North Korea claims to have developed bomb with great destructive power
Report said the blast is up to five times the strength of the Nagasaki bomb

North Korea has carried out its biggest ever nuclear test, a direct challenge to Donald Trump and a provocation which will sharply raise tensions in north-east Asia.

The blast drew strong condemnation from Japan, South Korea and China, with Beijing urging Pyongyang to stop its “wrong” actions.

Japan said the explosion was ten times the strength of Pyongyang’s test last September, while reports in South Korea said it was up to five times more powerful than the Nagasaki bomb in 1945.

Fears that Kim Jong-un's regime had carried out the country's sixth nuclear test came after an earthquake was detected in the reclusive state’s north-east.

US President Donald Trump tweeted: "North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States.

"North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success."

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the test as "reckless", and that it "could represent a new order of threat". He added that "all options are on the table".

North Korea state television said Pyongyang had tested a hydrogen bomb, and the test was a 'complete success'.

"The H-bomb test was carried out to examine and confirm the accuracy and credibility of the power control technology, and internal structural design newly introduced into manufacturing the H-bomb to be placed as the payload of the ICBM," said North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency.

Only a few hours before the blast, North Korea said it had developed a H-bomb with "great destructive power" capable of fitting on an intercontinental ballistic missile.
According to the China's Earthquake Administration, the earthquake it detected measured 6.3 magnitude.

Tremors from the explosion were felt by residents of Jilin, Changchun and Baishan cities, in China’s north-eastern Jilin province, state broadcaster China Central Television said.

Residents of Vladivostok, on Russian’s eastern coast, close to the North Korean border, also reported feeling tremors at the time the nuclear test was triggered.
There have been no reports of radioactive abnormalities in Russia so far.

China has started emergency monitoring for radiation at its border areas with North Korea. The Envioronment Ministry said it initiated a level-2 emergency plan, the second-highest level, hours after the test.
Meanwhile, Japan said it had deployed “sniffer” jets to detect whether there had been any leaks of radiation.

(URGENT) North Korean artificial quake 9.8 times more powerful than fifth nuclear test: Seoul weather agency
South Korean President Moon Jae-In called for the "strongest punishment" against North Korea, including new United Nations sanctions..

Mr Moon called for "all diplomatic measures including UNSC (security council) sanctions resolutions to completely isolate North Korea", an official said after an emergency National Security Council meeting.

China – North Korea’s key economic trading partner – also strongly condemned the nuclear test and criticised Pyongyang for ignoring international condemnation of its atomic weapons programme.

A Chinese foreign ministry statement said North Korea "has ignored the international community's widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China's government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this."

The statement urged North Korea to “stop wrong actions that will worsen conditions.”

A Japanese official suggested that restrictions on oil-products could be enforced on Pyongyang. The impoverished state relies on supplies of oil from China to survive.

Before the test, KCNA had released pictures of Kim in a black suit examining a metal casing with two bulges.
It was a "thermonuclear weapon with super explosive power made by our own efforts and technology", KCNA said, with the agency adding that "all components of the H-bomb were 100 percent domestically made".
Some have questioned whether Pyongyang has a working H-bomb.
But if North Korea's claims are true, the ability to mount a warhead on a missile would be seen as a significant escalation, creating a risk that it was preparing for an attack.

The announcement came after a series of tests by the North Korean regime, including one which saw a missile fly over Japan.

Earlier this month Pyongyang said it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike the US territory of Guam with missiles.
Donald Trump warned that if the regime did so it would be met with "fire and fury like the world has never seen".
At the same time the US has agreed to revise a treaty capping the development of South Korea's ballistic missiles.

Following Pyongyang's announcement, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke with Donald Trump by phone and said that in face of an "escalating" situation with North Korea that close cooperation between their countries, South Korea and China was needed.

[abhik]

Who cares what Boris Johnson says, maybe undy-tv should should ask for sunny leone's opinion for their story on NoKo's nuclear test.

Meanwhile i'm still waiting for fire and fury like the world has never seen.

[ramana]

Interesting nameless folks question whether the double bulge is a TN or not!
IT looks like one, the seismic signature looks like one and yet nameless people who probably saw such a thing first time in lives question it!t

[UlanBatori]

A

t the same time the US has agreed to revise a treaty capping the development of South Korea's ballistic missiles.

What does that mean? US retreating?

ramana: isn't that the standard "NO it is NOT a horse it's a dog!" tactic to trigger release of more data? Given the hypersensitivity of the modern Chinese, the stunt may actually work.

What do you make of the reported "secondary tremor"? They said it could be some sort of cavern collapse. But big enough to register on seismographs?
Also, is this the first-ever TN event where data were monitored and reported in wider media? All others were Pacific islands, Siberia, western Australia, Gobi or North Dharmasala, hain?

[ramana]

Second tremor at 4.6 would be the primary or its trigger.

NoKo wont answer any more.

Lab scientists would know. They showed full configuration. It produced enough signature. Already claims of mating to missiles.

People need to read full text of Cuban missile crisis.

[UlanBatori]

That's my question too. Is Trump up to Kennedy level? Here there is no (not yet at least) threat of triggering Armageddon, just squish the bugs in Pyongyang now to avoid having to fight a monster later. I am tired of hearing the dumbasses say "The US has really no military option". Why not? What are the big nuclear-armed fleets for? The Strategic Air Command? The subs?
If there is no military option now, why was there one in December 1941? 1990? 1775?

Trump is beginning to look like the worst-ever wimp, unless he gives the orders in the next day or two.

In fact, PeeAllSee has made a veiled threat of "intervention" if the US goes with unilateral military action. I would say that this is a golden opportunity. What intervention are they contemplating? Invade So Ko from the sea? Too expensive, they would get smashed. Take on the US fleet? They would get smashed. Invade Taiwan? Most probable, but they would get smashed there too. Their southeast coast industrial infrastructure would get smashed, triggering breakup in short order.

So I think most probable outcome of a jhapad against NoKo would be MAJOR loss of face for PeeAllSee.

[sudeepj]

Is the necessary firepower to slap NoKo assembled in the theater? Will there be a willing partner that provides a land base for delivery of ordnance on top of NoKo?

[ramana]

Those fleets are for rational deterrence between equal powers.

First time a nuke armed irrational power is being faced. Its new territory.
It has nukes and missiles.

JFK faced Cuban crisis where the short range weapons belonged to Soviets who were persuaded to remove them.
This is different.
A new nuke power with ICBMs already there.
All earlier strategies are for a power that just tested nukes or has missiles.

So lets not blame yet.

[UlanBatori]

There's no such thing as a rational military power. Leaders will always look for the unexpected, unthinkable route to quick victory. Like Ghori and Ghazni rushing headlong at war elephants using horses, Hitler going around the Maginot Line, Sharon crossing the Suez Canal through the desert, Indira Gandhi hopping across swollen rivers during the Northeast monsoon, Japan hitting Pearl harbor, PLA coming directly across mountains and cliffs in winter in 1959 and 1962, IA climbing cliffs in the middle of the night in 1999. Unless things go nearly perfectly, there will be huge losses, but they take the gamble if desperate enough. So here Trump has a week to launch the full fury, ShockNAwe etc. or go back to twiddling thumbs with Nikki Haley showing photos of missile installations at the UN etc. There is **no** Normandy-type solution here, the Chinese will see to that. But I think massive air-sea attack will render NoKo's arsenal kaput even if the US loses a few ships and planes in the process. And no, China cannot afford to launch sea-air attacks at this stage. 5 years from now is another matter, as Japan and SoKo scramble to cut deals with NoKo and push the US out as the price.

[UlanBatori]

This is pathetic
U.S. pledges 'massive' response if threatened
Duh! They just did, for the 73,843rd time. Pathetic. I HOPE there is something else coming.

And this is even more pathetic: SIMULATED DRILL. Ooooooo!!!
South Korea holds live-fire drill simulating attack on nuclear site to 'strongly warn' North Korea

[Gerard]

NoKo tests a hydrogen bomb and SoKo response is a live fire drill using conventional ordnance to simulate an attack on the test site? Is there anything worth attacking in the test site? Isn't it a contaminated barren mountain? I can't think of a better way to demonstrate impotence than this.

[shiv]

(URGENT) North Korean artificial quake 9.8 times more powerful than fifth nuclear test: Seoul weather agency

List of NoKo tests
NoKos fifth nuclear test

(5) 9 September 2016 00:30:01 PYT
(+8:30 hrs)
Punggye-ri Test Site, North Korea 41.298°N 129.015°E[note 4]
15 - 25 kt

[Singha]

CNN excerpt
It is possible that the scale of defiance shown by Kim will force China's hand and convince it to move to a more hostile stance towards North Korea.
China did sign on to a tough new range of UN Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang which were passed in August in a major foreign policy success for the Trump administration. But US officials believe Xi could do far more to rein in Kim, given that his impoverished nation is dependent on China for energy supplies.
But China's end game in North Korea is not the same as Washington's -- its ultimate goal is to prevent a collapse of the regime in Pyongyang that could send millions of refugees into it's territory and destabilize communist rule.
It also wants to prevent the evolution of a unified Korea allied to the United States in a scenario that would change the strategic balance in northeast Asia.
One option for Washington is to signal that it is ready to impose comprehensive sanctions on Chinese firms that do business with the Pyongyang government, in an effort to force a tougher line than Beijing.
Still, there is no guarantee that strategy would work either, since Kim is showing every sign that he believes the survival of his regime is guaranteed by a deliverable nuclear arsenal and he is willing to do everything to achieve it.

[ramana]

PRC will laugh it off.

[shiv]

CNN excerpt
It is possible that the scale of defiance shown by Kim will force China's hand and convince it to move to a more hostile stance towards North Korea.

Let me state my view on this by cross posting something I wrote yesterday

I have gone completely crazy looking at Google earth. For the heck of it I started looking at the China Vietnam and China NoKo borders to see if China had military camps like they have near crucial points with India. In a word, no, they don't. No visible nearby defences. Admittedly I will have to look harder - but I did not have to look hard in Tibet.

Now explain this to me. China keeps a limited number of troops in Tibet - it's not great to feed and house them at 4000 plus meters. They have no army installations facing 800 plus km of Korea border and 1000 km of Vientam border. None on the coast I'm guessing So wtf they do with their troops other than the pretty women used for entertainment?

Let me tell you what I think. I bet a fair number are in Xinjiang and Tibet for internal security duties. Still the Cheenibuggers have a large army? What are they doing with them. Other than threatening civilians what ops are they conducting?

The Chinese will do nothing against Korea. They are incapable of doing anything and they will not risk war. The interesting thing is that both NoKo and Vietnam are separated from China by a river along long segments of border. But there are dozens of bridges between China and NoKo where the Chinese can drive straight in. Not so in Vietnam. Lots of boats in the latter - surprisingly none in NoKo

[Gyan]

North Korea is slave labour economy of China. China does not mind more sanctions on NK as this strengthens their relationship with NK. NK is the middle finger of Chinese body. NK Is to China what ISI is to Pak Army. I think atleast BRF should grow out of this nonsense about NK taking semi independent line from China.

Trump has already said that Chinese are good boys after this latest test, hence nothing is going to happen.

[Singha]

I agree.

[UlanBatori]

UN speech by Mohterma NikkiHaleyBibi didn't sound so bissful: basically said total sanctions (ha ha!) or war.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

UN speech by Mohterma NikkiHaleyBibi didn't sound so bissful: basically said total sanctions (ha ha!) or war.

Yes, but the US is proposing a resolution to be discussed next Monday. Somehow doesn't have the feel that the US is going to go for military options.

[UlanBatori]

OTOH the absence of any further threats indicates that preparations are underway.
US knows fully well that the proposed resolution is unacceptable to cheen: it says that countries who continue to trade with NoKo will be treated as terrorist-supporting enemies. Cheen has already squealed with the term "UNACCEPTABLE" (remember "PLA is IMMOVABLE"?) Also, US knows that NoKo has 6 months supply of fuel already stockpiled, sanctions are just going to irritate further. So the intent of the resolution, 1 way or the other, is to trigger a "we tried all we could, we will now act in supreme national interest".
The "24 year road with can kicked down the road, has ended" is basically an ultimatum. What is also eerie is the total absence of "DHS Orange Alert" or "DEFCON 3" or "All leave cancelled" declarations. At Army installations AFAIK, it was already pretty tight by mid-August. (5 is lowest; Cuban Missile Crisis reached DEFCON 2; 1 is "Imminent Nuclear War")
In this case if one is serious, one cannot afford to give too many "Stop Me B4 I Get Really Mad!" threat escalation steps: the buggers will simply decide to start testing their artillery range against Seoul.
Watch for a chemical spill in Seoul that forces a massive evacuation.....

[UlanBatori]

DEFCON 4This place is not official US govt, it is a bunch of kids apparently.

DEFCON Warning System – Update 9/1/17
1:02 AM | September 2, 2017
This is the DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 7 P.M., Friday, September 1st, 2017. Condition code is Blue. DEFCON 4. There are currently no imminent nuclear threats against the United States at this time, however there are events occurring in the world theater which require closer monitoring. North Korea recently fired a missile over..

So laid-back that they haven't even updated over the weekend! No mention of NoKo nuke test.

[UlanBatori]

I think the official response is a bit tooooo laid-back. Remember these are the ppl who spike the airport status to Orange practically every week.
If I were doing the jhapad:
1) Totally secret - hunt down and kill every North Korean submarine, starting with any that can launch IRBMs or cruise missiles. May be only 50% can be caught outside port.
2) Partially quiet advice to Korean govt to send Seoul govt offices on vacation for a week. Of course this will leak immediately.
3) THAADs focused on every known launch site.
4) Japan Navy alerted.
5) Massive chemical spill near Seoul, forcing unprecedented total evacuation. Escorted by the US forces who are pulled OUT of the DMZ and Seoul areas.

6) (a) HARM raid, coinciding with (b) ALCM/SLCM rain on c^3 installations, (c) followed IMMEDIATELY (takeoff several hours ago) by B-52 raids over the artillery emplacements, dumping massive amounts of fuel-air explosive along with guided bums into every artillery emplacement, with massive detonations in the valleys. Dump a few MOABs for good measure.
7) Once air superiority is ensured (15 to 30 mins), massive B-52 and B-2 raids over missile installations.
Continued hammering north of DMZ and all govt installations in Pyongyang.

The trouble is that item 6(c) SAC takeoffs cannot be kept secret. Needs an "exercise" in progress.
But the whole strategy has to be a 1-day hammering on an unimaginable scale, not an Al Quolin Bin Powell type 6-month buildup. So no movement of ground forces until the ground situation has been totally changed.

Would have been so much nicer if Putin was on friendly enough terms to start festivities at Ussuri River a week ahead of that, but I don't see that happening now, unless the whole embassy tamasha is a feint, like the Syrian Chemical Attack Air Raid was.

[Shankas]

I was thinking, what or who could have prompted/nudged 9-pegs puppet lil kim to go against his master, especially on the day when the whole worlds attention was on Bricks and it was the middle kingdoms all powerful emperor 9-peg's day. Could it be that beneath the calm waves of CPC there is a lot of turmoil, turbulence, and undercurrent that points to instability? Perhaps the opposition camp within is orchestrating this to bring down 9-pegs aura before the plenary. Should we be expecting an October surprise?

[UlanBatori]

Gals/guys: I seriously believe that this is an existential moment for the US. They could not stop the Soviet Union from going nuclear - and that led to a 45-year Cold War teetering on the brink of Armageddon (as we were led to believe). They could not stop China because the Soviets and they were afraid of each other. OTOH the Soviets could not stop nukes from being proliferated to Poodlestan and Phrogistan. And Israel. India and Pak never posed threats to the US. In the case of Iraq, US/Israel acted pre-emptively. In Iran, Israel has flat-out promised to act pre-emptively. Now we come to NoKo - whose nukes have US addresses written all over them, and a genocidal hatred behind it. Will the US allow this to happen?

Kennedy said Heck NO! when Cuba (as threatened by US as NoKo is today) tried to get missiles.
Reagan ultimately said Phooey! to MAD and said he was sick and tired of living under threat.

Now Trump, after all his bluster, is going to meekly knuckle under and condemn the US to live in the thermonuclear shadow of Kim Lil'Un? I think that would be the end of his Presidency for starters (unless it gets him the No-Bill Psss Prize).
So Trump is in a lose-lose situation. But if he actually follows stated policy and orders his forces to take out Kim and his nukes, at least his popularity rating will go into orbit.

So might DupleeCity, come to think of it. But he faces much less of a threat than Reagan or Kennedy faced down, and they didn't flinch.

The only non-war option is to start a total blockage of NoKo and Chinese ships because they keep supplying NoKo. I mean limit it to the threat of Naval war where US has the advantage. But even then, NoKo will race ahead with ICBMs tipped with thermonukes.

I think most of the US pop would support military action this week (as long as nothing falls on them).

[sum]

^^ Korean govt has just declared a extra holiday to help citizens get a continous 10 day string of vacations at end of this month. So, the SoKo govt definitely isnt too perturbed currently

Oct. 2 designated by Blue House as a Chuseok-season holiday

[Singha]

IBN live
New Delhi: Pakistani nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan on Monday admitted that North Korea's nuclear technology was much better than his country's. He also ruled out any assistance from Islamabad to Pyongyang in this regard.

Khan said that North Korea was a self-reliant nuclear power and attributed it to a highly qualified group of scientists, in an interview to BBC Urdu.

[Karthik S]

What's stopping US from doing an Iraq on NoKo? At the present atleast, NoKo doesn't have SSBN, it's a small country (1/6th the size of Texas), with all the satellites and everything, US can pick up the launch sites and do preemptive strike.