India - South & North Korea Thread

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 27 Apr 2018 13:51

NoKo can easily build new test sites,far easier than that of a missile or bomb. The US is demanding a destruction of NoKo N-capability which would be suicide .It is far better of keeping its weaponry and capability ,steadily modernising and expanding them as far as possible,than castrate itself without any real rewards for such disarmament,etc. This the US is not prepared to do.It wants a Kim "surrender". That Trump is not going to get and we may just watch a tamasha acted out for global telly,"signifying nothing",as the bard said!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Apr 2018 18:07

As sad end to this thread that started off so promising, but a historic din. Koreans must be seeing new light today, although I certainly hope the watching tiltrotor drones over the DMZ hills and coastlines are not sleeping.

Deal to end Korean War: The two leaders vowed to formally end the Korean War, the leaders announced on Friday afternoon.

The momentous day concluded with a suitably flashy performance. A Korean song called "One dream, One Korea" by South Korean singer Minah was performed by a pianist and accompanying orchestra while a huge projection was played onto the side of the Peace House.
It was an incredible spectacle and a breathtaking end to a truly epic day. Kim and Moon held hands while watching the performance, which was followed by an immense slide show projecting the day's events onto the side of the building.


There is actually a dubbed video of a smiling Kim Young One talking of hope and a better day etc.

Kim: "New chapter in our history"
Speaking at the banquet following today's summit, Kim said "we need to maintain peace" and "open a new era of co-prosperity" {not to mention a few new tunnels through the DMZ} to overcome the challenges facing the Korean Peninsula. He said he was ready to "display commitment" to building peace "to the world."
Kim Jong Un: "I would like to join hands together between the two sides so that we can open up a new chapter in our history" https://t.co/mBTGtWzxaz pic.twitter.com/VZ8Wq9vgoL
— CNN International (@cnni) April 27, 2018


And ..
Trump praises Chinese leader Xi's impact on Korean breakthrough
In one of a flurry of tweets Friday morning, US President Donald Trump praised the help that his "good friend" Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, has offered in moving forward the nascent peace process on the Korean Peninsula.
Please do not forget the great help that my good friend, President Xi of China, has given to the United States, particularly at the Border of North Korea. Without him it would have been a much longer, tougher, process!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 27, 2018...

An hour before that:
1 hr 9 min ago
Trump tweets on summit
US President Donald Trump is up and tweeting :rotfl: . He's cautiously positive about the day's progress:
After a furious year of missile launches and Nuclear testing, a historic meeting between North and South Korea is now taking place. Good things are happening, but only time will tell!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 27, 2018
In a second tweet, Trump wrote: "KOREAN WAR TO END! The United States, and all of its GREAT people, should be very proud of what is now taking place in Korea!"

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Apr 2018 20:23

UlanBatori wrote:Kim Thin One crosses DMZ - in peace. Meeting with Genuflex Moon

The two leaders shook hands at the Military Demarcation Line dividing the North from the South, smiling, chatting and posing for photos together. Holding hands, they crossed the line together into the southern side. Shortly after, two children from South Korea presented Kim with flowers, which the North Korean leader passed to his sister, Kim Yo Jong.
Escorted by traditional music, Moon and Kim walked together to the "Peace House," a three-story building where the official summit will take place.
Inside the "Peace House," Kim signed the guest book, writing in it for over a minute. The two leaders then went into a reception room for a private conversation.


Stoops to conquer.

By any account it is a historic day.
We should look at the India part of the thread title.

So what are the pro and cons for India here?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Karthik S » 27 Apr 2018 20:38

ramana wrote:


Stoops to conquer.

By any account it is a historic day.
We should look at the India part of the thread title.

So what are the pro and cons for India here?


This guy mentioned in his twitter handle. Looks like we have had some "communication" with NoKo for some time.

Sniper @avarakai
Media ignored why Modi - Xi meeting at Wuhan exactly when #Koreas meet. Kyunki...kyunki...

Do you know a DPRK delegation met GoI post-2014? (Scroll up)

Do you know, why India did not close it's Mission in DPRK? Even after US put pressure over it?

Go figure.


https://twitter.com/avarakai/status/989818772495138817

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 27 Apr 2018 22:13

He is too cryptic and acts like he knows stuff but might not be.

Yes India despite having NoKo supplying NoDong/Ghauri missiles to Pakistan has not cut off relations with them.
if you recall there was NoKo ship that was intercepted in high seas carrying centrifuges etc. last decade.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Anantha » 28 Apr 2018 01:00

With nok and Sok peace, massa may go for denuclearization of Korean Peninsula?
Next step may be to pressurize India (and Pak) to call peace and denuke?
Modi’s China visit may be related to this?
Expect desi media to start shared heritage BS between India and Pak in the next few days.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 28 Apr 2018 01:10

And major push for FMCO from all P-5.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby IndraD » 28 Apr 2018 01:49

On this thread some time ago Ramana garu said
China wants to denuclearise Korean Peninsula, followed by denuclearisation of India and Pakistan. His prophecy has come true.
He did give reasonings regarding how Europe's nukes would be neutralised.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby IndraD » 28 Apr 2018 02:41

@XHNews
7h7 hours ago
More
White House hails "historic" Kim-Moon meeting.
U.S. "hopeful that talks will achieve progress toward a future of peace and prosperity for the entire Korean Peninsula," it says http://xhne.ws/EJtUO


China has averted nuclearisation of SoKo. what does US get out of this ? Why is Trump superhappy?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 28 Apr 2018 04:06

What "pressure" can China exert upon India to de-nuke? What leverage do they have?

The US and China joined forces to try and get us to de-nuke in 1998. They couldn't force a much weaker India to do so, even back then. How will they accomplish it now (when the US-China relationship itself is much more fraught and India is much stronger?)

For things like FMCT to go forward you need a hydra-headed, single-minded international regime running things, like the Clinton-era "New World Order". That world order is history now.

The bigger issue is this. In the world you have two countries with real nuclear arsenals. These are the ONLY two countries for whom taking the initiative to launch a nuclear war is a genuinely feasible strategic option. Others, including ourselves, have basically "dikhaavat" arsenals (preposterously limited in size/scope, its limitations couched in terminology like "credible minimum deterrent" etc.) US with IUCNCA expressed that it was OK with us having this "dikhaavat" arsenal.

And we agreed.

We have ourselves been a party to our own nuclear truncation. We have ourselves bargained away the chance to ever become a first-rung nuclear power. THAT is the real "denuking" of India and it's already happened. No way the US will now waste further political capital on antagonizing us with "full de-nuking" demands, given our own willingness to be content with a "dikhaavat" arsenal which suits America just fine. I doubt even China, which so badly wants us to join OBOR/BRI, will attempt to antagonize us in this manner.
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby SBajwa » 28 Apr 2018 04:24

Good point Rudredev!!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Apr 2018 06:12

The Dikhavat is only the Ishtrategic MegaTon weppun and the Eye See Bee Em. This is a point which UBCN analysis has been pointing out for a very long time even before UBCN was formed. There is no "Dikhavat" where Tactical Nukes are concerned. The Big Powers don't tom-tom about Tactical Disarmament because their hands are deep in the cookie jar there. All nuke powers have huge numbers of tactical nukes. So I hope does India. The escalation from TN to Strategic is a step that no power will take unless they think they have utterly overwhelming Irondomes over all their cities. So there, the arsenal of all powers is largely Dikhavat as the Kim-DT standoff showed. One measly H-bum threat essentially checkmated the US' vast arsenal of ICBMs.

But no such consideration applies if a tank division comes across a border or a big naval force draws within aerial strike range. Tactical nukes WILL be used.

Now about Korea: The two Koreas appears to have realized that the others in the 6-Party Talks had decided to "solve" the Korea crisis by making the 2 Koreas massacre each other. So they decided to live. "Denuking" is a further step. Right now since SoKo has no declared long-range strategic weapons, this means, Xi takes his mijjiles back from NoKo, and American ships will not be allowed to dock in SoKo because they are presumed to also carry strategic weapons. I don't see a total American pullout of that sort in the next few months.

So all the hair-pulling here about The Coming Taking Away Of Our Toys, is all premature dhoti-shivering. A total India-China-France-Britain denuking might be considered, but only if TNs are included. And they won't be, because there is a China-Russia lovefest involving 12,000 TNs on the Siberian border: Russia will not pull those back because they don't have humans to stop a Chinese invasion. So China won't de-TNuke, and if Russia won't then US won't, so goes the excuses.

As for Korea, the President of a university in Seoul is a former US prof who was the expert at "Track 3" negotiations towards a New Clear Free East Asia. Involving Siberian border, NoKo, SoKo and Japan. He and his gang may be part of the present lovefest.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Karthik S » 28 Apr 2018 06:52

IndraD wrote:On this thread some time ago Ramana garu said
China wants to denuclearise Korean Peninsula, followed by denuclearisation of India and Pakistan. His prophecy has come true.
He did give reasonings regarding how Europe's nukes would be neutralised.


China wants denuclearisation of India. Pakis want gazwa e hind. batican wants India to be another batican. What a helpless, sad and scary situation.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ashish raval » 28 Apr 2018 12:17

There will be no denuclearisation, unification of anything concrete other than puppy zhappi. It is only tactical readjustment to get some sanctions lifted. That's all. Khan's will be happy if no missiles or bums are tested but knows that they can if they want to.
Thin one will now turn around and say hey I walked first step!! What will I get in return and say I can only take second step after you take first step i.e. remove the sanctions.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Philip » 28 Apr 2018 12:51

But there will be tamasha at the highest level. If the utterly undeserving O'Bomber got the Nobel peace prize for doing nothing,then dear old stumpy Kim the Young "UN",is truly deserving of it along with his SoKo counterpart.And storming into the home straight for his medal too is the Donald,for applying the right pressure to make the tamasha happen.

Ultimately,NoKo and stumpy will be allowed to keep their N-toys in a frozen state,with some dismantling of his infra,along with a formal end to the Korean War and withdrawal of most of the US troops from the peninsula. XI Gins must be rollng with laughter at what he's about to achieve by stealth.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby rsingh » 28 Apr 2018 19:49

Just as Trump decided to kick China out of the equation and decided to talk to the mad guy directly............things have changed. It shows Trump knows truth about China. It may be tamasha but it is a signal to China. Thing can change very quickly.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby rsingh » 28 Apr 2018 20:10

Karthik S wrote:
IndraD wrote:On this thread some time ago Ramana garu said
China wants to denuclearise Korean Peninsula, followed by denuclearisation of India and Pakistan. His prophecy has come true.
He did give reasonings regarding how Europe's nukes would be neutralised.


China wants denuclearisation of India. Pakis want gazwa e hind. batican wants India to be another batican. What a helpless, sad and scary situation.


Baap ka mmal hei kya ? You guys are putting India in same league as NK or Bakistan?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby IndraD » 28 Apr 2018 22:09

rsingh wrote:Just as Trump decided to kick China out of the equation and decided to talk to the mad guy directly............things have changed. It shows Trump knows truth about China. It may be tamasha but it is a signal to China. Thing can change very quickly.

or is it pther way round?..he seems to be kowtowing to China by kowtowing to China's catspaw!

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Karthik S » 28 Apr 2018 22:18

rsingh wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
China wants denuclearisation of India. Pakis want gazwa e hind. batican wants India to be another batican. What a helpless, sad and scary situation.


Baap ka mmal hei kya ? You guys are putting India in same league as NK or Bakistan?


sarcasm hai bhai.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby rsingh » 28 Apr 2018 22:23

Baah Sarcasm. My kids play this game with me.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Apr 2018 23:27

I think in this round China came away with egg on face. Basically had to ask NoKo to stop the game, marbles taken away until u agree to stop throwing marbles at the neighbors. And now marbles may be banned outright.

If Korea is denuclearized, SoKo holds military advantage overall in conventional weapons. All NoKo has is the threat to damage SoKo economy. Won't wash in the context of a survival challenge. NoKo minus nukes is a 3rd-world peasant dump. Entirely at the feet of SoKo industrialists and military-industrial complex.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ArjunPandit » 29 Apr 2018 01:55

Philip wrote:But there will be tamasha at the highest level. If the utterly undeserving O'Bomber got the Nobel peace prize for doing nothing,then dear old stumpy Kim the Young "UN",is truly deserving of it along with his SoKo counterpart.And storming into the home straight for his medal too is the Donald,for applying the right pressure to make the tamasha happen.

Ultimately,NoKo and stumpy will be allowed to keep their N-toys in a frozen state,with some dismantling of his infra,along with a formal end to the Korean War and withdrawal of most of the US troops from the peninsula. XI Gins must be rollng with laughter at what he's about to achieve by stealth.

Phillip sir why not trump, he's the one who shook the tree so that ripe fruits fell

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 29 Apr 2018 02:15

^^ Hmm! Have you considered Herman Goebbels as the person who should be credited for the formation of Israel by those criteria?
Tikka Khan as the Grandfather of Bangla Desh? :mrgreen:

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 30 Apr 2018 22:30

Link to Koreana magazine in English to understand Korean culture.

Looks more like South Korean....

Koreana Magazine archives

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 01 May 2018 07:07

c what I mean about Foggy Bottoms and NonProllotullahs going Ro-Dho about the Korean Biss
They can't stand it. Not that NoKo won't try a stunt, but the NonProllotullah does not tell the other side of the Dubya-era story, which I heard live on NPR. NoKo was asked to demolish its nuclear power plant, but the engineers building the power plant using imported oil to replace the nuke plant, were under orders from GOTUS to never finish the project. NoKo cannot be blamed for tricking these dishonest guys. Its just that they were smarter than these oiseules.

But I actually believe that this time there is a hope on all sides of reunification.
See latest from NoKo: Time zone changed by 30 mins to align with SoKo.
"as a first practical step for national reconciliation and unity,"

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ArjunPandit » 01 May 2018 07:52

UlanBatori wrote:^^ Hmm! Have you considered Herman Goebbels as the person who should be credited for the formation of Israel by those criteria?
Tikka Khan as the Grandfather of Bangla Desh? :mrgreen:
they were before bomber won it for giving a good speech and then bombing..... Yes yes it is in the same spirit..

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 01 May 2018 17:03

To do equal-equal I should mention Gens. M. Begin and A. Sharon for the Palestinian State.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 02 May 2018 07:34

In the spirit of peace in Korea what needs to be discussed is that in the name of peace, Pakistan must give up their nuclear weapons and fissile material to the IAEA. Followed by the dismantling of Pakistani weapons production facilities, test sites, and strategic weapon delivery systems. All verified by international inspections. Once that is complete in let's say 12-18 months, then they can ask that India will promise not to dismember Pakistan.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 02 May 2018 17:44

Wrong dhaga, but I would request Brexperts to consider a small point: Go back to 2002, when it was concluded that Pakistan had lost all its nuclear weapons. There was also a RAA story that there was no radiation any more at Kahuta, based on the intel gathered from haircut/beardtrim cuttings at the barber shop. Now look at the level of intel/communications/PR/propaganda coordination that enable TWO bogus "cruise missile strikes". Then look at the report of the armored Train From Pyongyang that reached Beijing, followed by Kim Young One declaring nook-nood.

What struck and woke up UBCNews analysts is the near-exact match between KYO's words about declaring success in NewClear Detergent followed by Turning to Biss, and the words by Gen. Gola Musharraf in 2002 lecturing to his now-unemployed New Clear Scientists. In both cases, to quote the Paki exiled editor,
The Strategic Assets are Back With Those Who Provided(/Funded?) Them

Also explains DT's praising XI, after a particularly nasty slide towards a Trade War followed by a sudden thaw.

So, Mortji, the trouble with your suggestion to the Pakis is that it costs the Pakis nothing. They're already there. Nook-Nood. Since 2002 onlee. All those periodic articles counting the hundreds of Paki Nukes are just Berkeley-Stanford.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby krisna » 05 May 2018 19:53

Interesting on simply quickly reviewing the past ones on Korean issues. A few posts came up(probably have missed many others) ALL in 2011
posting.php?mode=quote&f=1&p=1213927
We can expect Korean reunification in a few years. There is no rationale for NoKo to exist except to save PRC.

viewtopic.php?p=1213929#p1213929
Reunification will mean US troops at Chinese border. I think PRC will resist reunification attempts at all cost.

viewtopic.php?p=1213948#p1213948
NOKO goes from Demoncratic Dear leader to Deer Leader and then onward to Democratic Dear Leaders within the political set up of Unified Korea ( Asian UK). The Hermit Kingdom will rise again and take its rightful place in Asia rivaling Japan.Korean Nationalism is very much in the interest of India.

posting.php?mode=quote&f=1&p=1214195
Kim Jong Il's death is a significant event. It could have ramifications that can pose some fundamental changes to the power equations in North and East Asia. The incumbent Kim Jong Un is not experienced. When the founder president Kim Il Sung died, it was preceded by years of positioning and developing a leadership around Kim Jong Il. This has not been the case this time around.

Also, the era of Kim Jong Il, has been one of a change of guard. The earlier leadership had comrades of Kim Il Sung who had been part of the struggle against Japanese and then the Korean Wars. They did have a level of support from the population on which the cult of the Great Leader was built. The Dear Leader had no such basis and also presided over some of the worst times of North Korea. The Chinese support is now not assured as it was in the times of Mao. The Chinese view of North Korea has been that of a useful vassal state. As a convenient instrument of clandestine proliferation, as a tool for pressure and negotiations using nuclear blackmail against the US and and Japan etc. The economic underwriting of the bankrupt economy of North Korea is something that is done most grudgingly by the Chinese.

This change therefore presents an opportunity for the US to break the stanglehold of the communists in North Korea and push for a unification with the prosperous South. They west will definitely try this. As this will give them a great platform to contain China. Chinese will therefore react to secure the North Korean leadership that comes in. But they will first adopt a wait and watch to see if the new young Kim can get power and hold on to it.

There will be a two different factions in the ruling Workers Party. One of the old guard that will try to reassert and push the young Kim out and keep the China relationship. The other made up of likely younger cadre that will seek to secure a more prosperous future by following a detente with the South and making up with the western powers. Kim the grandson, has to make some tough choices here. He cannot afford to sit on the fence. He has to take some sides. And no matter what side he takes, it is not likely that he is going to have a stable and strong grip on power.

One thing is for sure, the west will not let this opportunity to go by without trying to change the status quo. From an Indian perspective, the North Korean break out from the Chinese camp is going to be beneficial. It will mean that the Chinese support by proliferation to Pakistan will no longer have a deniable cover for starters.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby krisna » 05 May 2018 19:57

posting.php?mode=quote&f=1&p=1214204

The Death of Kim Jong-Il represents a golden opportunity for India to make her move!

Our ultimate aim should be the "smooth Unification of Korean Peninsula".

A United Korea would mean the question of Goguryeo would again pop up. China is in fact occupying historical Korean land with many ethnic Koreans living in PRC. These Koreans have decided to integrate into China more or less, but if a United Korea comes about, these Koreans may feel differently about it, and it could become an open wound. The Chinese tend to make preposterous claims of Goguryeo being a Chinese kingdom which is bound to inflame Korean passions even more.


India should play an active role in the Unification of Korea.
Also we should NOT plead for the Disarmament of the DPRK. If the Koreas can unite, and in a negotiated pact between DPRK military and RoK military, military is allowed to keep the nukes, it would mean Korea becomes a nuclear state, in a somewhat similar position as India regarding NPT. United Korea may have to be brought into the Nuclear framework through a similar pact.

That would push Japan to reconsider its nuclear status too.

The nuclearization of Eastern Asia: Japan, Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan would act as a deterrent to Chinese power in the Pacific. China would not be able to browbeat the other countries with its aggressive postures.
o what can we do?

North Korea is a member of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)! We should set-up a NAM DPRK Support Group (NDSG) consisting of some Asian countries.

As a leading country of the NAM movement, India should take the lead. Another country we should rope in is Indonesia, to give NAM contact group more gravitas. For otherwise it would look like either an Indian agenda affair or some US sponsored group. Also we should rope in Myanmar, because their junta and North Korea have had many dealings, even in the nuclear field. Singapore should be a part of the group, because of its Chinese background. Also Singapore is one country with which North Korea has good relations. Mongolia may be another country of relevance here. Mongolia too has made the transition from communist regime to a democratic political system. All are NAM members. If possible we should use an Foreign Office chap from India's Northeast!

We should try to soften the transition of North Korea as a highly isolated country to a place integrated with the rest of the world, and ultimately to help North Korea in its negotiations for unification with South Korea. Furthermore we can help in mediation between North Korea and Japan on various issues of conflict. We can also act as the point man for organizing aid to North Korea in the mean time.

In the longer run, we will also be able to get at the secrets of North Korea - Pakistan nuclear dealings.

We have to break away China's closest friends, North Korea and Myanmar, away from it, and if possible turn them into spears facing China.


Wikipedia- The name Goryeo (alternately spelled Koryŏ), a shortened form of Goguryeo (Koguryŏ), was adopted as the official name in the 5th century,[12] and is the origin of the English name "Korea".
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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby krisna » 05 May 2018 20:01

viewtopic.php?p=2148229#p2148229
Xi Jinping gave a tall story to Trump about how Korea is actually a Chingadya land and its inhabitants are Han Chingadyas originally.

This is a funny claim. In fact, Korean (like Japanese and Mongolian) is an "Altaic" family language. It has nothing in common with the sing-song tonal whining of the Chingadya language. Just as Tibetan, an Indic family language, has nothing in common with Chingadya language either.

Also, Xi Jinping's tall claim is based on the notion that historical Korea (Goguryeo) used to dominate Manchuria (Qing). So Manchuria was a vassal of Korea once upon a time. And under the Qing dynasty, China was a vassal of Manchuria (a foreign power dominating the Han Chingadyas). By Chinese logic this makes Koreans part of the Han Chingadya race.

In fact the Hans were the slaves of Qing Manchurians who were in turn the slaves of Goguryeo (Korea).

The contempt Koreans have for Chingadyas can be easily discerned from the word used by Koreans for Han Chinese. Koreans refer to Chinese as "Tae-Nom" (literally, "Dirt People").

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby krisna » 06 May 2018 19:16

http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-cha ... rds-911306

In a symbolic move meant to showcase North Korea’s willingness to pursue a permanent peace treaty with South Korea, Pyongyang set its clocks 30 minutes forward on Friday (Saturday, Korea time) to sync up its time with Seoul.

Since then, the two sides have removed loudspeakers :mrgreen: from the border area that for decades blasted propaganda into the demilitarized zone. But changing the time on the clocks is the first symbolic gesture made only by Pyongyang. North Korea had originally changed its time by half an hour to demonstrate its independence from South Korea. Now, North Korean state media has suggested changing the clock was the first step toward reunifying the Korean peninsula.

" The North Korean leader said, according to Yoon. "Since it is us who changed the time standard, we will return to the original one. You can make it public."
interesting part
Still, the process toward complete reconciliation will be a long one. Numerous surveys also show that there is limited appetite in South Korea for reunification.

more like younger generation do not know much about North Korea due to constant negative perception over the years along with issues related to jobs economy freedom etc. But still many do like unification but should be slow.
https://youtu.be/kvGbIWxBeR0

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 07 May 2018 01:22

Pyongyang set its clocks 30 minutes forward on Friday (Saturday, Korea time) to sync up its time with Seoul.

Why does this make any sense? They are further EAST than SoKo, so if anything they should have had to set their clock BACK to sync with Seoul, hain? Were they sync'ed to Ulan Bataar or Beijing?

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 09 May 2018 19:46

Very interesting speculation on future course of negotiations.

its really about China!!!!

Specter of Katsura-Taft 2.0!


The Specter of Katsura-Taft 2.0: Is a US-China Deal Far-Fetched?
By: Ruediger Frank
May 8, 2018
Commentary, Foreign Affairs



A few months ago, the possibility of a direct meeting between US President Donald Trump and DPRK Chairman Kim Jong Un seemed as remote as North Korean denuclearization. The verdict is still out on how plausible achieving the latter really is, but the summit has been announced and now awaits more specification.

The biggest mystery concerns possible outcomes. How much will Kim Jong Un really offer in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, a peace treaty to end the Korean War, diplomatic normalization with the United States and other concessions he may be seeking? The broad agreement between most North Korea analysts is: not very much, if anything substantial at all.


{ I think the US NoKo anal ysts don't really understand power. Hence are misled. All those are on table in a graduated step by step process. What is not negotiable is regime change like in Libiya. And China looms behind. Note Kim Young Un went to meet XiJ inping just yesterday.}


This is alarming especially if we consider the recent appointment of John Bolton as US National Security Advisor. He has for a long time been very vocal regarding his preference for an “appropriate” North Korea policy. His viewpoint suggests the North Koreans are a threat to the US, there will never be a reliable diplomatic solution, and therefore a military intervention is the only reasonable way forward. On April 29, only two days after the inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom, he very bluntly suggested a Libyan model for North Korea. This was meant, and will be perceived, as a threat, not an offer.

{Dolton is appointed by DT. Yes, first time after Cuban crisis, US faced a real nuke threat with apparently irrational regime. Yes, just like Cuban crisis military intervention is not the way forward. Dolton is already sabotaging the NoKo with his rhetoric. And might see him go if he persists. Diplomacy is being carried by Mike Pompaeo who knows the stakes here.}


Considering the inflexible positions of both sides on CVID (complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement) and hawkish tendencies among people surrounding Donald Trump, there are fears that the upcoming Kim-Trump summit will fail. Such an outcome could be used by Washington to declare the futility of diplomacy and as an excuse for launching a military strike against North Korea. It is not difficult to project that even a limited intervention could quickly develop into a full-scale conflict, resulting in massive destruction and heavy casualties, but ultimately also in the end of the Kim regime and a German-type Korean unification by absorption. Under current conditions, it seems very likely that the US will be the dominant external power in such a scenario. This is precisely where the hopes of many optimists rest: China will never let that—a conflict in its backyard and a US-dominated unified Korea—happen, and the US will not risk World War III just to get rid of Kim and his nukes.

{Analysis is simplistic for it ignores the magnitude of last nuke test and the missile launches. Kim Y Un has started the peace overture after completion of his development. }


The key question is therefore: is there a possible scenario under which China would be willing to look the other way? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. Given Mr. Trump’s self-perception as the ultimate deal-maker, there might indeed be a deal that the United States could offer China—one that Beijing would perhaps be tempted to accept.[1]

History is never really a blueprint for the future, but it provides general hints at possibilities. In 1905, Japan and the United States concluded the so-called Taft-Katsura Memorandum, named after the two men who have signed it: William Howard Taft, US Secretary of War, and Japanese Premier Taro Katsura. Although there is a debate over how much of an actual agreement and how “secret” the document was, its contents and the circumstances under which it emerged suggest that Japan renounced any aggressive designs on the Philippine Islands in return for America’s acquiescence in Japan’s subjugation of Korea.”[2]

Fast forward to 2018, the scenario for a new version of Taft-Katsura could look something like this: China promises to remain neutral in the case of a US military intervention in North Korea and a subsequent unification under South Korean leadership, in return for America’s acquiescence in the PRC’s “reunification” with Taiwan.

A closer look at the involved interests reveals that this scenario might not be the complete nonsense that it seems to be at first glance.

Xi Jinping’s remarks at the National People’s Congress in March 2018 made it obvious that Beijing is very interested in reestablishing its control over Taiwan. This has since 1949 been one of the PRC’s major foreign policy priorities. Beijing regards the island as a renegade province that must be brought back under its control. US resistance to such a position has been half-hearted. On the one hand, Washington accepted in 1971 that the PRC would replace Taiwan in the United Nations and all its related organizations. On the other hand, the US military has guaranteed Taiwan’s independence and has a set of agreements in place that are designed to deter any Chinese attempt at forcible reunification. In December 2016, Donald Trump, then president-elect, held a direct phone conversation with the Taiwanese president and thus caused fears in Beijing that he would be more supportive of Taiwan’s independence than his predecessors. However, in February 2017, Trump assured Xi Jinping in a phone call that he would abide by the “one China policy.” Ever since, Trump has refrained from irritating China over the Taiwan issue.

Concerning Korea, it is clear that the US has a number of strong interests on the peninsula. The North Korean nuclear threat has been repeatedly singled out as one of the gravest challenges to American security and that of its allies. That said, the alliance with South Korea has been strong for many decades and offers a number of advantages in dealing with a rising China.

China’s interest in Taiwan and US interests in Korea are undisputed. What is less apparent is if and why the US could be willing to give up Taiwan, and why China could be ready to give up Korea.

To begin with, unlike in the case of Korea, not a single US soldier has died in defense of Taiwan against a Communist attack. The island is of strategic value to the US but also a dangerous tripwire that could draw Washington into a conflict it does not want, or at a time that is not convenient. Some scholars assert that this strategic value might even be in decline. Economically, the relative value of Taiwan is still strong but decreasing; it has dropped from rank 8 among the major importers of goods from the US in 2004 to rank 11 in early 2018. The controversy over President Trump’s phone conversation with Tsai Ing-wen suggests that he might see the bilateral relationship as a diplomatic liability. If China finds a soft, non-military way of taking over Taiwan, the United States would certainly protest loudly. But would it intervene militarily?

However, even if the above is true, there is still Korea. It has for years and very convincingly been argued that an extension of the US zone of influence up to the Chinese border would be unacceptable to Beijing both from military and political points of view. US troops at the Yalu would be a direct threat to Beijing’s security, and an inconceivable loss of face for a country that is about to become more assertive in its foreign policy and steps up efforts to establish itself as a protective power in the region, which inevitably means pushing the United States out of such a role. Under such circumstances, yielding to the major competitor seems unthinkable. So is that the end to any speculation about a Taft-Katsura 2.0 type of arrangement? Not necessarily.

There is no need for American troops to stay permanently north of the 38th parallel in case of an accomplished Korean unification. A secret deal between Washington and Beijing could include such a face-saving provision. Moreover, who in China would dare to criticize Xi Jinping for allowing the US to take care of a regime that is increasingly unpopular amongst many Chinese when at the same time he made Taiwan rejoin the motherland?

Furthermore, an American presence in a unified Korea would not be easily sustainable, once the justification provided by the North Korean threat is gone. China would just have to wait for a decade or two, and every now and then give financial and moral support to domestic Korean movements who will more or less kindly ask Uncle Sam to leave a now unified and peaceful, independent and strongly nationalist Korea. In the end, Beijing could have its cake and eat it, too: Taiwan a part of China, Korea unified and a close ally.

All this speaks against a US support of such a deal if we assume a long-term strategy. But how would Trump see it? By the time all this unfolds, he will long be a former president and perhaps not even be alive anymore. Even if so, he would as usual blame everybody else for this gaffe in American foreign policy. But in the short run, which seems to be his primary concern, he could pride himself in having solved the Korean problem—great reelection talking points.

Needless to say such an arrangement would mean huge and incalculable risks for the people of Taiwan and of Korea. The actual outcomes would be very uncertain, to say the least. Furthermore, it is far from obvious that politicians in Beijing and Washington would be bold enough to engage in such a gamble, and that they trust each other enough to keep their respective part of the horse-trade. But as a matter of fact, similar deals have been struck before. We do know that Korea was a colony of Japan for 35 years, and the Philippines were effectively under US trusteeship for almost half a century.

Against this background, some of the more recent events would merit a reinterpretation.

When Kim Jong Un went to Beijing in late March 2018, he might have been heeding the old advice to keep one’s enemies closer. Kim not only wants the Chinese on board, he wants them under control. This was reaffirmed by the astounding implication in the Panmunjom Declaration[3] that China might or might not be on board in Korean peace talks.

South Korea has been contributing its share, too. It is no coincidence that the Kim-Trump summit was announced in March by two South Koreans—after they had briefed the US President on their talks with Kim Jong Un. In late April, President Moon Jae-in even hinted at the prospect of a Nobel Peace Prize for Donald Trump to keep him interested.

Kim Jong Un’s grandfather had in the 1950s successfully played Beijing and Moscow against each other. Today it looks like the two Koreas have joined forces for a similar high-stakes game and are manipulating the Great Powers in a concerted effort. Out of painful historic experience leading to colonization in 1910 and national division in 1945, Koreans on both sides of the 38th parallel are seriously concerned that great powers could again decide their fate above their heads. The last thing they want is a secret deal between Beijing and Washington, be it Taft-Katsura 2.0 or any other agreement that goes against Korea’s national interest. To end on a happy note: Such shared nationalist concerns could turn out to be the magic glue that helps the two Koreas to overcome their many and seemingly insurmountable differences.

[1]

Disclaimer: All this is purely speculative. I have no evidence or indication whatsoever that any of what will follow in the next paragraphs is going to happen or has any support from any decision maker in Beijing or Washington.

[2]

Raymond A. Esthus. “The Taft-Katsura Agreement – Reality or Myth?” The Journal of Modern History, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Mar., 1959), pp. 46-51.

[3]

Point 3/3: “During this year that marks the 65th anniversary of the armistice, South and North Korea agreed to actively pursue trilateral meetings involving the two Koreas and the United States, or quadrilateral meetings involving the two Koreas, the United States and China with a view to declaring an end to the War and establishing a permanent and solid peace regime.”





Interesting speculation.

However its Xi JinpIng in control and not Kim. Kuch bi.

Korean unification with out US withdrawal will bring US troop sin Korean peninsula.
Whole point of Chinese intervention in Korean war across the Yalu River with so many dead is lost if this happens.


I had suggested that there is some trade off going on in NaMo -Xi talks on same subject.

it was about Western domination of Asia

This guy wants to take that and claim it for US.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby IndraD » 16 May 2018 01:17

North Korea reportedly cancels scheduled meeting with South Korea because of US military exercises https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/15/north-k ... ter%7Cmain

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby IndraD » 16 May 2018 01:20

North Korea threatens to CANCEL nuclear summit with Trump because it believes 'provocative military ruckus' of joint U.S.-South Korea drills are rehearsal for invasion

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z5FbMiwKkk

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 16 May 2018 01:48

:mrgreen:

And President Chump thought he had NoKo Denuclearisation deal in the bag as a big Foreign Policy Victory! He is only beginning to taste the blow-hot-blow-cold khimchi.

A massive, world-class humiliation is being orchestrated for Chump by Putin and Xi. He has been set up (a few knuckle-dragging Korean-Am "hostages" sent home for a photo-op, Moon Jae In making Nobel noises). Feeling emboldened by the glow of an impending but illusory "victory", Chump went on to praise Kim Jong Un on Twitter. He was also hoodwinked into believing that he had acquired enough political capital as a World Leader (via "success" in the Korean peninsula) to push around the EU countries on the question of JCPOA and Iran sanctions. His move to open the US embassy in Jerusalem at this time is going to make things very difficult for his allies in West Asia too.

All this plays into Roosi and Chini hands beautifully.

Meanwhile, on every single issue from H1Bs to trade to Iran sanctions to pharmaceutical product prices, he is loudly and obnoxiously alienating the one country that could have shifted the balance of power in America's favour: India.

No wonder Modi is flying to Sochi for a summit with Putin on the heels of his summit with Xi (and plans to meet both leaders several more times in the coming months). India's preferences be damned. We know a loser when we see one.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby ramana » 16 May 2018 01:51

It's possible U.S. has its own Kalidasas who don't want this Korean peace. Holding military exercises while on glide path to summit is quite provocative.

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Re: India - South & North Korea Thread

Postby Rudradev » 16 May 2018 01:58

If I were in GOTUS, I would not be in favour of a Korean peace either. There is no question that it means strategic envelopment of Ko Pen by China in the medium term, and of the entire Western Pacific in the long term. Even the Sinophiles (Kissinger, Halfbright, Clintons, Biden etc.) who accommodated Chinese economic ambitions to a near-suicidal level (for US industry) did not want to lose their strategic foothold on China's doorstep.

So I don't think there is any Kalidasa about it. Kalidasa-giri is sawing away your influence over SoKo while 30,000 of your GIs are sitting at Camp Humphreys.


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