Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 02 Apr 2015 13:32

Looks like Ukies have caved in. Now they are planning to purchase Russian gas at a lower cost. At abt 250-260 odd instead of the 329ish now.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 02 Apr 2015 15:09

Where are they going to get 3 Bil $ to pay the past dues before that?

I am sure Russia will want payment beforehand for any supplies from now.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 03 Apr 2015 11:01

Chocolate had earlier declared that Ukraine would not need any Russian gas in summer, but his calculations went wrong after EU did not supply the volume Ukraine thought they would get.
As per the 2009 agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine's price is supposed to be $ 248, which is what they are going to have to pay for the next 3 months. (During the previous Russia friendly administration it was much lower, but in the past 6 months, it
was $ 329). Not too much should be read into the discount, as gas prices decline in summer (far lower demand) and the longer term trend has also been downwards. Gazprom needed the sale as badly as the Ukies.

Payment is in advance, apparently with 2 conditions - there is a `take or pay' clause, wherein Ukraine has to pay even if it does not lift the gas. They also have to supply the rebel regions with that gas.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 03 Apr 2015 14:07

Supplying rebel regions with gas is something that cannot be enforced. The Ukbapzis can always claim that some pipeline blew up or something.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 04 Apr 2015 09:43

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/0 ... 4&ir=India

Quite rightly put. But what do they expect anyway with this ?

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 04 Apr 2015 10:50

Bhurishrava wrote:Supplying rebel regions with gas is something that cannot be enforced. The Ukbapzis can always claim that some pipeline blew up or something.

The pipelines mostly flow through rebel held areas.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 04 Apr 2015 11:41

^^ But Last time the Ukbapzis had cut off gas supplies to rebel regions claiming some pipeline damage forcing Russia to supply them gas directly.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Apr 2015 11:46

The $249 price is the same that Ukraine used to pay during previous President which is $100 discount over the price of market.

Gas price is oil linked so with Oil prices down the Gas price would go down even for EU countries

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... in-europe/

It expects that export prices to Europe will average $260-270/kcm in 2015, around $100 less than they were in the first half of last year.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Apr 2015 12:02

Future of Russian Energy is in Asia

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... tions.html

Both Yamal LNG’s move to China and Russia’s newfound partnership with India are key steps in Moscow’s plan of undermining Western sanctions. What has become clear is that emerging powers and partners of Russia are more than willing to fill in the gap that has been left wide open by fleeing Western investors.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 04 Apr 2015 12:38

A lovely Western picture of the reality of life in the UKR,divided and ruled by a motley bunch of oligarchs.A great ad for suicidal investments!

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... -oligarchs
Can Ukraine save itself from Vladimir Putin and the oligarchs?
Timothy Garton Ash
Here is a state so intravenously corrupted that those who should be its doctors are its poisoners. Perhaps we might call the radioactive poison in its bloodstream Ukrainium.

Here is a state so corrupted that those who should be its doctors are its poisoners

The deputy finance minister says the grey or black economy may account for as much as 60% of the country’s economy. One example: we are told that of the 20,000 kiosks that are dotted along the streets of Kiev, selling various goods, only 6,000 are properly registered and pay some taxes. The other 14,000 may pay bribes and protection money, but not taxes. Who controls them? Well, we are told, it’s often public prosecutors (who are numerous, and have extraordinary powers), police officers or judges. Here is a state so intravenously corrupted that those who should be its doctors are its poisoners. Perhaps we might call the radioactive poison in its bloodstream Ukrainium.

At the apex of this arrangement are the oligarchs, usually with regional strongholds. A former investigative journalist turned reformist MP talks matter-of-factly of the “Donetsk clan”: the (Rinat) Akhmetov clan, the (Dmytro) Firtash clan, the (Ihor) Kolomoisky clan, and so on. These oligarchs don’t just own vast chunks of the economy. They bankroll political parties, furnishing blocks of MPs to protect their interests. People refer to television channels by the oligarchs who own them: “Akhmetov’s channel”, “Firtash’s channel” and so on. Anyone who believes they don’t have state officials in their pockets deserves a Nobel prize for naivety. Oh yes, and several of them also have private security forces.

How does one start transforming such a deformed state? Where the ancient Romans asked “who will guard the guardians?”, the question for modern Ukraine is “who will prosecute the prosecutors?” The current plan is to set up an independent anti-corruption bureau, with its own investigative and prosecuting powers. The forces of resistance are strong, and can be nasty. One MP, who is working on the closely related anti-monopoly proposals, told me she was personally threatened (“I’m afraid something might happen to one of your relatives when they are crossing the street.”)

I hear two novel D-words: de-shadowing and de-oligarchisation. De-shadowing means trying to bring some of the grey economy out of those shadows, to help fill a giant hole in the public finances. President Petro Poroshenko told our visiting study group from the European Council on Foreign Relations that Russian aggression has cost Ukraine about 25% of its industrial output. Even if it receives the promised international financial support package of $40bn over five years, Kiev is barely able to pay its bills – including military costs estimated at $5m-$10m a day – and service its debts. But while bureaucrats are so badly paid, many of them will go on taking bribes, rather than, say, collecting taxes. Only a state that can raise the money to pay its civil servants properly will be able to raise the money to, er, pay its civil servants properly. That’s just one of many Ukrainian catch-22s.

De-oligarchisation – a tongue-twister only to be spoken when entirely sober – means what it says. But how? Recently, one of the top oligarchs, Kolomoisky, was taken down a peg, being removed as a provincial governor by Poroshenko – who is, of course, himself an oligarch. Yet Kolomoisky remains richer and more powerful than any feudal baron. To make things still more complicated, he has actually used his clan resources to help protect his region and neighbouring ones against potential Russian separatist destabilisation.

I can only offer a few glimpses from this under-reported Ukrainian home front here: not a fairytale simplistic narrative, but the messy, uncomfortable facts. Even if there were no war in the east, the obstacles to building a better Ukraine would be immense. To be sure, that war has released reserves of popular energy. Society has mobilised. On the streets, you encounter volunteers rattling collection tins for the army, and humanitarian support for the more than 1 million internally displaced people. War has united the larger part of the country, even as it has divided its eastern end. Not for the first time in history, a nation is being forged in conflict.

Yet the human, economic and political cost of that war is crippling, and it could get worse. For we must understand that Putin is unlikely to be content with just a “frozen conflict” in eastern Ukraine – which many here in Kiev privately describe as the least worst option for now. He wants a simmering conflict, one that ensures the whole of Ukraine remains a weak, unstable, dysfunctional state.

Our job, as Europeans, is to prevent him achieving that objective. Yet at best, we can only create the conditions in which the Ukrainians themselves may seize the opportunity created by this crisis, and build a new Ukraine. The rest is up to them.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 05 Apr 2015 22:59

US Ambassador to Czech Republic Frozen Out for Undiplomatic Advice

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/2015040 ... z3WSbBYmxT

"The American ambassador has closed the doors of the [presidential residence]," President Zeman said in an interview with the local magazine, Parlamentni Listy.

This came after Schapiro, a former fundraiser for US President Barack Obama, told Czech television in late March that Zeman's planned visit to Russia amid the ongoing Ukrainian crisis would not send "a good message."

Zeman lashed out at the US representative, who took up office six months ago, saying he could not imagine a Czech ambassador in Washington giving advice to the US leader on his foreign travels.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 05 Apr 2015 23:32

http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-afte ... 015-4?IR=T

Bruised and battered after a year of armed conflict, Ukraine has been crippled by a combination of monetary, budgetary, industrial, banking and energy crises that could make it dependent on outside help for decades.

Possible lenders are scared off by the potential for default -- which the Moody's ratings agency says is near 100 percent.

The authorities in Kiev say they are trying to stamp out corruption and have fired a billionaire governor and arrested some high-level officials.
But Tatiana Jean, from the Paris-based IFRI think tank, said part of that was "play-acting".

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Apr 2015 23:57

Meanwhile Porshenko is inspecting a US supplied Humvee

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 06 Apr 2015 12:02

http://rt.com/news/247001-ukraine-army-adviser-yarosh/

Ukraine’s neo-Nazi leader becomes top military adviser, legalizes fighters

“Colonel General Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of General Staff, and Dmytro Yarosh agreed the format of cooperation between ‘Pravy Sector’ [Right Sector] and the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Ukraine’s defense ministry said in a statement.

This has also been done probably to stop Yarosh from ganging up with Kolomoisky against Poroshenko. Now Kolomoisky is being singled out. Either he fights back or has to leave the country with all the wealth. The fact that he is a jew doesnt go down well for his future prospects in a country being run by nazi parliamentarians.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 06 Apr 2015 12:40

http://news.yahoo.com/war-ukraine-finan ... 06820.html

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Apr 2015 12:53

Seig!Seig!Seig...who?
Hungary,Greece now the Czechs give the US the bums rush.....hmmm! Revolting behavior what?!

Ah! Now the reason is apparent He probably prefers Stolli!
‘American beer is just filthy water’ - Czech President

The Czech president Milos Zeman eulogized his country’s trademark beverage, while insulting US beer as “filthy water” during a presidential business summit in the Central Asian republic of Kazakhstan.

Asked about which beer is the best in the world, by the longtime Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbaev, Zeman did not hesitate.

“We have built several breweries here already. We might make good planes, cars or other products, but most importantly, never forget - Czech beer is the best in the world,” said the 70-year-old.

“No American company that offers some filthy water instead of beer, can compete with us.”

http://rt.com/news/208459-zeman-beer-czech-filth/

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Apr 2015 13:24

Czeck President is online to be designated for a certification of being a despot soon. How dare he is to refuse the advice of the Khan representative and call a filthy water as a filthy water.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 07 Apr 2015 09:35

Chocolate.... Chocolate... HES BACCCCK.

This time he wants to go to the public for a referenda on federalization.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/a ... of-ukraine

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 07 Apr 2015 16:42

With a Russian embargo, Poland seeks to export apples to India?
http://www.thenews.pl/1/2/Artykul/20270 ... -of-apples

“In my view, we [currently] sell no more than 40 percent of what we would like to export to foreign markets,” Sawicki said.

“Every market, whether it be India, Indonesia, Singapore, or the United States, is very much needed.

“We should not be discouraged by the fact that at the beginning we sell there a few tens of thousands of tonnes, because that could later develop into millions,” Minister Sawicki said.

“We should develop these outposts, it is worth making the effort.”

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 08 Apr 2015 13:25

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015 ... alkom.html

What is the west scared of ?! Truth ?!

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 08 Apr 2015 13:28

Should be fun to see what happens when Greece meets up with Putin.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/a ... pras-putin

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 08 Apr 2015 13:32

The greeks are just a distraction. The ukraine army is piling up supplies. plenty of military hardware in ukraine now from all over NATO. There may not be a hot war soon -- economy doesnt allow it. But when it does heat up, it will be really brutal.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 10 Apr 2015 06:23

Interesting thoughts from Stratfor on the potential difficulties and pitfalls that Russian regional govts can face:

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/amid- ... 6f5d7ea975

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Apr 2015 10:56

StratFart has been in recent times putting out the most negative forecasts about Russia as the propaganada war hots up and more nations are turning towards Russia and China for political,diplomatic,military and eco support. Hungary,the Czech Rep.,Greece and Cyprus are the thin end of the wedge that Putin and co. are using to break up the EU which is fast resembling a cracked ruin popular with international tourists! Read this illuminating interview with one of Italy's most popular figures.

http://rt.com/op-edge/246265-italy-econ ... ne-grillo/

‘EU has already collapsed’– Beppe Grillo to RT

April 02, 2015

Leader of the Five Star Movement and comedian Beppe Grillo. (Reuters/Remo Casilli)

The EU is an absolutely useless grouping; if it really was a community, European nations could have easily saved Greece and prevented it from being in the situation it is now, Beppe Grillo, an Italian comedian and the leader of Five Star Movement told RT.

In an exclusive interview with RT, Grillo, a comedian turned political activist shared his views on current events in Europe and what might be expected in the future, adding that the sooner Italy leaves the eurozone the better.

RT: What is the public mood about austerity measures in Europe at the moment?

Beppe Grillo: The public sentiment is generally quite negative, with all these puzzling words like “spread”, “fiscal compact” and “master parameters”. And these parameters have formed a kind of cage, inside which our taxation system is trapped. It turns out, our political processes as well as our financial system are inside this trap, and if we fail to get out of it, there can be no hope for the better. This type of economy is completely misplaced, and not only in Italy – it isn’t good enough for Europe and the whole world. Growth, growth, jobs and again growth… The coming decade will see a 50 percent jobs cut. The first to lose jobs will be the poorest segment of the middle class, ousted by technology and robotics, networks will become more sophisticated. We are heading for changes that our leaders do not yet anticipate.

Austerity is the term that can mean something good, too. Austerity means that the economy’s key goal is to save the funds. But the thing is that our economy is not making saving a priority. And we are forced to risk our family values and sell out our own country. We are forced to sell it out. Our metal production plants, fashion houses, wineries – all our core assets are now on the line. Milan is the home of a major international food industry exhibition, yet its sponsors are McDonald’s, Novartis and Coca-Cola. We are in an upside-down world. And we need to get back to our feet to understand it. And if we fail to understand it, we’ll be easy prey for the others.

RT: Has the victory of Syriza in Greece changed politics in Europe do you think - or will it, in the near future?

BG: I believe it depends on what kind of compromise will be found.It will mean a lot for the people of Greece. But even today, we can see the consequences of this decision on this global malady - all with the global market, Germany, exports and deflation… They say export is the solution for us, and export only. But if we keep exporting someone has to import. But national markets are going through a crisis now. In our country, we’re actually managing somehow, since the oil prices fell and the euro got weaker, we manage to be turning around some exports. But our domestic market is dead. Every hour on average two businesses get shut down. Speaking of our national debt, the situation in my country is following the Greek scenario. The job market is dwindling. This famous Job act is nothing but a ruse. It keeps the number of working hours the same. The only difference is that now they hire three people to do the job of one.But if number of working hours stays unchanged, this doesn’t in any way increase the production volume. These are fake jobs. Also, the threat of pay cuts has become real now. That means people will spend less, and the situation will only get worse. It is clear that all this going into a tight spiral must be stopped.

RT: What is the best Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can hope for negotiating with Europe?

BG: As I said, it depends on what kind of compromise he manages to achieve. He says that he can negotiate debt restructuring. But “debt” is a very ambiguous term; it largely depends on who it has to be paid back to. [30 percent] of our debt belongs to German and French banks, not our banks, like, say, in Japan. Japan’s national debt is ten times bigger than ours. But it’s in their hands. That’s great. The Japanese central bank prints the money, invests it into the country’s economy, and so there’s not a single unemployed person in Japan. The unemployment is at 0 percent, even though their debt is ten times bigger than ours. But it’s in their hands, while ours is in the hands of the German and French banks. They are trying to get their money back through the European Central Bank, which gives money to our banks so that they can redeem their debts to the German and French banks. This vicious circle needs to be broken. If Tsipras manages to do that, he will have accomplished something extraordinary. We will admire him for the rest of our lives.

‘Five Star movement revolutionized concept of politics’

RT: How do you estimate your party’s influence on the European political scene and its popularity?

BG: I’m just a comedian; I don’t hold a political office in my country. I’m the founder of this movement. We want to build democracy from the bottom up; we want to flip this pyramid. Many people run for office and get elected. Political office is about being elected, not appointed. We won’t appoint anyone. This changes the perceptions of politics, and thus about the world as a whole. And I’m expressing this idea; I’m making these concepts easier to understand. I’m not an economist. You’re asking me questions and I answer them. But an expert would never agree with what I’m saying. But I’m a comedian, and in comedy some objections are ignored. And maybe now people would rather have a comedian dealing with economy than all those graduates from Oxford and other universities that haven’t once managed to make an accurate prognosis.

RT: Has the Five Star Movement (MoVimento Cinque Stelle) changed anything in Europe?

BG: It has revolutionized the concept of politics. The Five Star Movement caused a crisis in all the parties. This process started in Italy and then spread over to Spain, France and Germany. Grassroots initiatives, leaderless movements “from below” have sprouted all over Europe. Their programs are drawn up by means of internet voting. We vote via the global network. Every decision taken by our MP is shared and agreed with other movement participants, unrelated to the Parliament. People contribute by enrolling in the movement, by online voting. We emerged from the internet. The party was founded in 2009 and has up to now gone through 6 years of life and action. In this stretch of time we managed to set the political panorama absolutely on fire. We are feared. Feared, I tell you. We are the key opponents of all those people in power in Italy, but maybe also in entire Europe, because if Matteo Renzi fails and the European system of transnational banks and financial institutions collapses, the whole European system will collapse. The system. He is the system, so if he goes down, the system will fall to pieces. And we’ll bring him down.

RT: Is the collapse of the EU possible?

BG: I think this collapse has already taken place. The European Union is an absolutely useless formation. If it were a real union, what the word ‘union’ practically means – a community, there would be no such situation as we see in Greece. Its share in the total European GDP is only 2 percent. Other European countries could easily save Greece, with no big effort. Thus, the EU is neither a union, nor a community of states. It cannot be defined. But the underpinning idea of the EU was sound. I support the idea of a common Europe. Our differences help us communicate and find common ground. The differences.

Italians are very different from Germans, Frenchmen, Austrians and Dutchmen. And this is good, because these differences enrich our cultures. But a common currency is a totally different thing. Initially there was to be a common currency, not just one currency. It was the British vision of the European Union. That’s why I am for a united Europe but against a single common currency, the euro, which represents completely different economies.

RT: Do you think Italy needs to leave the eurozone?

BG: We are preparing a referendum. A referendum is needed to let people express their opinion by voting. Especially considering that they were not granted this opportunity when Italy was entering the eurozone. So I think it’s only fair to ask Italians now if they want to be part of it. Personally I want us to leave the eurozone the sooner the better and restore our monetary sovereignty, get back a national bank that can emit money, our fiscal independence and, finally, our alimentary independence. Our food industry supplies French supermarkets, and in Italy we, vice versa, eat French food. It can’t go on like this. It’s not possible to promote arrangements that put our high quality products on the back burner. I’m sick and tired of this.

RT: Is the Italian population ready to abandon euro and come back to the lira?

BG: Yes, the lira. Rather, a lira. Not the lira we used to have twenty years ago. But let’s call this new currency lira, with the lira-euro rate 1 to 1. For me, leaving the Eurozone means primarily launching a currency I call lira, which is not the lira we had 20 years ago, but let’s retain the name lira all the same. When we switch to the new lira its value will automatically decline by 20-30 percent. It will be an immediate shock. And what will happen next? We’ll have to pay more for commodities. But we do not market commodities, what we do is process them. We buy oil and refine it, we buy soybeans and grain and process them. We refine oil to produce petrol getting back the 30 percent in added value, and it won’t significantly affect the final petrol price – 5-10 cents per liter at most. And we’ll get a 30 percent export benefit. I think we’ll become number one in Europe, since we are absolute leaders in terms of industrial production. Our foreign debt will be reduced by 30 percent, our credits too. What is there to be afraid of? They do their best to scare you as soon as you start considering the option of walking out. They start shouting, “Oooooh, what a catastrophe”. It is their problem, their catastrophe, not ours, it is unrelated to intelligent, hardworking people who are intent on doing this. It’s the catastrophe for those who earn money staying at home, abusing the financial system, receiving capital gains, who don’t work for real and are not part of the real economy.

Yes, considering that the financial transaction volume, as it seems, exceeds global GDP by 10-15 percent. Take the German Bundesbank. If you inspect its balance you’ll find there 70 thousand billion dollars in derivatives, hedge funds, financial products etc. And you want them to invest in real economy – in small factories and that sort of thing! But mind you, Germany is also having a hard time. We should treat this issue with utmost care and attention.

The problem, as I see it, largely depends on you, my friends, on how you translate this interview, which parts you’ll choose to broadcast and what your audience will eventually be able to make out of what I said here. Here’s the real problem. We don’t have facts any more, reliable truthful facts. We know nothing about the situation in Afghanistan, or about Iran. We don’t have a slightest idea of what Putin says, because everything is delivered to us in translation made by some American or Israeli language services agency. We can’t have the truth. So first we need to imagine what this truth may be like and go search for it, even if we have to sacrifice something. I appeal to you- go and look for information. Look at me. Dig for truth and don’t believe the journalists who stick labels calling me a rightist, a leftist, a homophobe, a racist and what not. They call me all kinds of names. And, in fact, I am an ordinary man, a comic, with 40 years of professional career under belt, who has found his niche in this world and who woke up one day with a determination to dedicate a bit of his experience, wits and money to the cause of common good. This is what scares people.

Look, I don’t think we need to wait for some moment when everyone feels ready to do it. Besides, what does it mean – whether everyone is ready or not ready? People aren’t ready to let this continue the way it is going, that’s for sure. And that’s the truth. We are no longer ready to let these things keep happening – things like losing our country, our culture, arts, hospitals, schools, water, gas and electricity. We are ruining the future for our grandchildren, that’s the problem. Therefore I think that we need to discuss it, think it over and come out with it. We need to try.

RT: Would you say Italy is coping with huge migration from non-European states?

BG: That’s a problem because we’ve been left out in the cold to deal with it on our own. There is a profound lack of a control system for the incoming passenger flow – right now anyone can get into our country. The control should take place at the embarkation points, not the debarkation points. We have about 110 -120 thousand unaccounted foreign citizens in our country right now, and that’s simply wrong. In other countries such as Australia or the USA, it is not easy to get into the country and disappear inside. Here, it happens all the time. We don’t have a working solution. And both the left-wing and the right-wing political parties are exploiting this problem in order to make their stand. They don’t really have a stand when it comes to economic problems. But when it comes to immigration, they knock themselves out. The right-wingers say we should kick everyone out of the country, the left-wingers say we should keep them, whereas what we really should do is work out a compromise. We should start with revising the Dublin Regulation. We want to do it. We want to have a unified policy on this matter in Europe, and we have 17 representatives in the EU Parliament with expert knowledge in this area.

RT: Recently you suggested 'Italy was on the verge of a bloodless coup' - what did you mean by that?

BG: It has already taken place. It’s not a coup we are used to, I mean, tanks that storm TV channels or block roads. It’s a smart coup. It’s all about causing a division in the parliament, penetrating the government and then installing a strong leader who is going to take full control. Italians are very sensitive to this kind of leaders. The Senate is gone, the parliament doesn’t pass laws, only decrees are issued, and the previous president used to sign all of them.

Anti-corruption laws are passed only to win support at the election, afterwards they would pass an amendment changing one paragraph in one of the provisions – and changing the nature and goal of the law altogether. It’s such a nightmare.

Every day we see politicians getting arrested. That’s happening every day. The problem is that right now the country is not so rich, that’s why corruption becomes so obvious. Corruption has always been there. But there are more arrests simply because you can’t hide it as well as they used to do it in the past. I come from Genoa. In the 1970-80s, the port of Genoa was busy, receiving ships and cargoes from all over the world. There were many prostitutes, gangsters and customs officials took five percent of the goods for themselves.

But as long as the port was profit-making, no-one cared about this. Once its revenues plunged, everyone suddenly woke up to the corruption, prostitution and drug trafficking rampant there. The same is true today – money gets stolen when you have big contracts related to road and mall construction.

But today we are not as rich, only a few can get away with scams, these criminal practices become too obvious although it all started more than 20 years ago – since Operation Clean Hands. It’s not something new but that sheer number of corruption-related crimes today is a sign that the country is in a dire state.

RT: "What’s happening to Greece today, will be happening to Italy tomorrow. Sooner or later, default is coming" you said. So if it happens, what will be the trigger? When will it possibly happen?

BG: I don’t know. Black swan is some factor that you could not have predicted beforehand. The notion was introduced by Iranian scholar Nassim Taleb who suggested that every economic, mathematical, or any academic theory will face factors that you cannot predict. What’s happening today is largely driven by this unknown factor but we can’t really comprehend it. The economy is down, shops and malls close down, towns are dying. The number of these black swans is growing every day. We don’t see them.

Look, we have a permanent budget deficit. Formally, we have surplus of 10-15 billion, which means our government spends less than it earns, like any good housekeeper. But we have 70-75 billion in debt and interest rate that we have to pay out, which means that every year we have a deficit of around 60 billion. It’s can’t go on like this.

For instance, Ecuador told the US that its debt is immoral and Ecuador is not going to pay it off. We can do the same. This debt is im-mo-ral. Actually, it’s not the debt of the Italian nation – or Greek for that matter. It’s a debt that had accumulated from corrupt deals, arms sales, it’s debt to Siemens or international arms corporations that sold Greece their submarines. There were many deals like this one, and people didn’t know anything about them. Now, they keep telling us, “You are to blame, you didn’t live within your means, and you are not paying taxes. But I want to know what happens to my taxes. Why should I pay them, if I don’t get the services the government must provide? The state has distanced itself. It’s only a police force to support violent rallies. There’s no state that would commend you for your hard work. Our government is different, and I want to change it. First we need a reform. The country must be ruled by people, not political parties.

Then we need to reform the media so that people have access to critical opinion. Today people can’t think on their own, that’s why democracy doesn’t really work.

Now let’s talk about the default. Default is what’s happening right now. Default is fear, that what makes you live in fear, thinking you are to blame, living in the state of a crisis. You try to save on everything, you don’t trust anyone or anything. Politicians say that trust must be restored. Trust is a treasure. But you can only have trust for the people who are worth it. Italy doesn’t have such people. We need to start from scratch, to re-invent the Italian and European culture. Who are we? We’ve lost the idea of who we are and what we going to do in the future. We must think about it right now. We must think of the type of energy that we need, goods that we’ll produce and so on. We must start right now otherwise we would be governed by fools and idiots who will drag us down the cliff. We are on this downward path already. I use this tough language because instead of going up, we are moving down. That’s how things stand in politics and the economy of this European country, this world, this galaxy and all existing galaxies.

Guys,do you spot some similarities with India? The mad rush to sell off the "family jewels" of the core public sector industries to the pvt. sector which will be bought up not by the common man,but by our oligarchs?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 10 Apr 2015 11:35

Guys,do you spot some similarities with India? The mad rush to sell off the "family jewels" of the core public sector industries to the pvt. sector which will be bought up not by the common man,but by our oligarchs?

It is a nexus, oligarchs fund the political parties elections campaigns and in return the political parties provide all sort of concessions to the oligarchs.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 10 Apr 2015 15:30

Its the loss making enterprises that are being sold off mostly. As long as it is systematic, slow and legal, there is nothing wrong with it. We dont want to return to the slow economic growth period.

The western press finally admits that the party of regions people who are dying are being murdered. But tries to pin the blame not on the fascists but on ally Akhmetov. Cool.

http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/17/ukra ... 20584.html

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 10 Apr 2015 19:15

Philip,

Selling off sick PSUs is a good thing. There is no comparison with european/slavic oligarchy.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 10 Apr 2015 21:26

RoyG wrote:Philip,

Selling off sick PSUs is a good thing. There is no comparison with european/slavic oligarchy.

To say there is no comparison would be a lie. There is a plenty of comparisons, we have our own brand of crony capitalism. On Transparency International Corruption Perception Index list India is only slightly better than these nations but not by much.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 10 Apr 2015 22:27

There is no perfect solution -- at the very least, privatizing will allow better usage of public resources. If we want poor usage of public resources, then having the govt. doing a bad job at it is ideal, as we have done since Nehru's time. OT for this thread so I'll stop.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 11 Apr 2015 23:57

To say there is no comparison would be a lie. There is a plenty of comparisons, we have our own brand of crony capitalism. On Transparency International Corruption Perception Index list India is only slightly better than these nations but not by much.

Dont think Transparency International Corruption index list is the best way to compare the liberalisation process in India and Ukraine or Russia. USSR did not have capitalists before 1991. Neither did they have a democratic setup.
So the powers that be, just sold off the assets to anyone with connections or muscles leading to the rise of corrupt oligarchs. In India the divestment process is taking place under the scrutiny of an independent media and an independent judiciary. Any attempted tricks like the 2G scam or coal block allocation issue becomes a national issue.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Apr 2015 12:24

The UPA-2 scams speak for themselves!

How asinine UKR neo-Nazis and their oligarch masters,Choco soldier et al,handed over to Russia the UKR's most prized asset,the Crimea. Putin simply "plucked" the Crimea like the British (Dalhousie)plucked the kingdom of Oudh! However,that act was unpopular with the people ,were offences against good faith and public conscience, and the Brits paid for it during the first war of Independence in 1857.
However,in the Crimea,the annexation has been universally popular and has dramatically strengthened Russia's grip on the Black Sea, and its presence in the Meditt,where it is fast beefing up its presence in Syria,Cyprus and perhaps Greece in the future. A "Grexit" in future and the lease to Russia of some of its ports would further strengthen Russia's naval presence in the region and even cast a doubt about Greece's long term commitment to NATO.

The effect and importance of Putin's brilliant coup in the Crimea will reverberate for centuries. It is this angst that Russia has secured its historic right of sovereignty over the Crimea and the implications thereof that has dismayed Washington so much and why it is trying to punish Russia as much as it can.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defens ... /25477449/

Russia Extends Grasp Over Black Sea, Into Med
By Matthew Bodner 2:41 p.m. EDT April 12, 2015

MOSCOW — Russia's annexation of Crimea secured the future of its Black Sea Fleet, enabling Moscow to pump money into bolstering its capabilities while expanding its reach well into the Mediterranean Sea.

Eighteen months ago, this hardly could have been possible. Under a highly restrictive basing arrangement with Kiev, the Russian Black Sea Fleet's size was limited, and the addition of new ships was prohibited. The fleet was destined to rot.

"The Black Sea Fleet by 2010 had not been replenished with new warships for 25 years, and in fact [the fleet] had turned into a bunch of museum exhibits," said Mikhail Barabanov, a Russian naval expert at the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST).

"Ukraine persistently tried to squeeze out the Russian forces from Sevastopol, or minimize their [presence]," he said.

But in the wake of political upheaval in Kiev, and the perceived threat of a pro-Western government taking power there, Moscow seized an opportunity to ensure the survival of its fleet by annexing Crimea in March of last year.

Two months later, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu laid out his plans for the future of the fleet — 68 billion rubles (US $1.2 billion) would be allocated to add 30 vessels by 2020. Russia would restore its lost glory in the region, and move further in the Mediterranean.

Black Sea Fleet

The reason for this activity is intimately tied to Russia's reasons for annexing the Crimean Peninsula in the first place — the perception that NATO is aggressively encroaching on Moscow's interests in the Black Sea region.

The threat of losing Sevastopol to an ostensibly pro-Western government factored heavily into Russia's decision-making. Not only were there fears of losing the base, but also fears NATO ships would eventually be stationed there.

Such an outcome would have been unacceptable to Moscow military planners, as losing the base "would negatively affect Russia's ability to control maritime affairs in the Black Sea," said Dmitry Gorenburg, a Russian Navy expert at the CNA Corp. in Virginia.

Though an alternate base was built near Novorossiisk, located on the Russian Black Sea coast, Crimea's central location was more advantageous and the port at Sevastopol — by virtue of its weather conditions — better suited for year-round operations, Gorenburg said.

With Crimea firmly within its grasp, the Defense Ministry is focused on rejuvenating the fleet.

Not only is the Navy seen as a critical asset to deter perceived NATO encroachment in the Black Sea — Russian state media reports every NATO crossing of the Bosporus — but an instrument to quell future instability in the nearby Caucasus.

In the next few years, the Black Sea Fleet will be joined by four improved Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines; two were delivered last year. By 2017, the surface fleet will be reinforced with six Talwar-class frigates, Barabanov said.
By 2020, the fleet expects to receive six Bykov-class patrol ships and at least nine Project 21631 small guided missile corvettes. Overall, 30 ships are expected to be delivered to the Black Sea Fleet by 2020.

These ships will not only patrol the Black Sea, but join a re-established Mediterranean Squadron. Shoigu last week reiterated that the Black Sea Fleet will spearhead Russian interests on the far oceans.

Mediterranean Ambitions

While the Black Sea might contribute to Russian national security more directly, by virtue of its proximity to possible conflict zones in Ukraine and the Caucasus, the Navy also hopes to use it to influence events in the Middle East and North Africa, Gorenburg said.

"The Syrian civil war, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, countering Islamic movements in the region are all areas of strategic interest for Russia and they see naval power as a way to influence the situation in the region," he added.

One prominent example of how the Black Sea Fleet was used to support Moscow's aims in the Middle East was the creation of the so-called "Syrian Express" — large tank landing ships running supplies between Sevastopol and Tartus in support of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Barabanov said.

As with many of Russia's military maneuvers in recent years, Gorenburg said the element of prestige can't be ignored in Moscow's Mediterranean ambitions. Russia sees the squadron nominally as a means to counter US power-projection in the region, and the squadron can ease the sense of being surrounded by hostile forces, he said.

"It also sends a signal to other countries in the region that Russia is back as an important power and promotes Russian arms for potential sales contracts in the region," with countries such as Egypt and Algeria," Gorenburg said.

habal · Post by **habal** » 13 Apr 2015 19:09

ruble is most dynamic currency of 2015

http://rt.com/business/248537-ruble-rebound-april-10/

The Russian ruble continues its scorching ascent, improving 3% against the dollar and nearly 4% versus the euro, the best performance in over four months. The currency, on of the worst performers in 2014, is now the best in 2015.

The US dollar lost nearly 3 percent against the ruble, trading at 50.2902 at 1:04pm in Moscow on Friday. The euro, which has also faced tremendous downward pressure from the €1.14 trillion QE package, slipped four percent, hitting a low of 53.3804 at 1:04pm. Against the pound, the ruble strengthened to 74.2014 at the time of publication.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Apr 2015 11:13

Another ally of ex-pres. Yanukovych found "dead". Kiev junta bumping off its opponents? Why is there little or no comment from the "democratic and free" Western media?

Series of ‘bizarre suicides’ & murders: Former Ukrainian MP shot dead in Kiev
Published time: April 16, 2015

Published time: April 16, 2015
Oleg Kalashnikov (image by http://glavpost.com)

A former Ukrainian MP and active anti-Maidan activist, Oleg Kalashnikov, has been killed in his flat in Kiev. His killing is the latest in a series of odd deaths plaguing former government officials and ex-President Yanukovich’s party members.

The 52-year-old was found dead at his residence in Kiev on Wednesday evening. His death was “caused by a gunshot,” the Interior Ministry said in a statement announcing a police inquiry. Ukraine’s criminal investigation chief Vasily Paskal, took the investigation under personal control and promised to share motives and the preliminary results of the probe with reporters as soon as they become available.

The investigation is focused on five possible motives for the crime, according to Interior Minister’s senior adviser, Anton Gerashchenko.

So far the investigation considers the primary possible motive behind the killing to be Kalashnikov’s “political activity” linked with his “participation in the organization and financing” of counter-revolutionary events in Ukraine. Gerashchenko emphasized that Kalashnikov “had knowledge” of the anti-Maidan movement that resisted the coup last year and continues to challenge new authorities in Kiev.

“Without any doubt the deceased knew a lot about who and in what way financed anti-Maidan, which cost Yanukovich and his camarilla several million hryvnias per day. He takes these secrets with him to the grave,” Gerashchenko said, also listing some other leads on his Facebook page. Business debts, personal enmity, burglary attempt and “other versions of murder”are listed among other possible motives.

Ukrainian media reported that before the murder Kalashnikov received threats of physical violence for his political views, in particular for his drive to defend Ukrainians’ right to widely celebrate the 70th anniversary of WWII victory.

In a letter addressed to his friend before the murder, Kalashnikov allegedly wrote that an “open genocide on dissent, death threats and constant dirty insults” have become the “norm” following his open call to honor the memory of heroes and victims of the Great Patriotic War.

An acting Ukrainian MP and ex-spokesman for the extremist Right Sector group, Borislav Bereza, went further and alleged that Kalashnikov has been eliminated by his “former employers,” who were tying up loose ends, “scared” he could disclose details of their past activities. While part of the secret was “taken to the grave,” some information remained in “electronic form,” Bereza stated

“A series of bizarre suicides of ex-regionals [Members of the Party of Regions], and now the murder of Kalashnikov, raises questions to law enforcement authorities. I hope that Ukrainian society will get the answers,” Bereza said.

Meanwhile, Oleg Tsarev, parliamentary speaker of the self-proclaimed Novorossiya, agreed that Kalashnikov’s murder is the latest link in a chain of mysterious deaths of former supporters of the Party of Regions.

“Of course, this is a political murder. In Ukraine, it is now extremely difficult to maintain your point of view, not to give up, and to publicly express it,” Tsarev told Lifenews. “Of course, this is a retaliatory murder of the sane.”

The murder is meant as a warning for all those who dare to oppose Kiev government, which can do anything against the opponents, Tsarev believes.

In the past few months, at least eight former Ukrainian government officials died mysterious deaths, with most treated as suicides.

On January 29, former chairman of Kharkov region government, Aleksey Kolesnik, was found hanged.

On February 24, former Party of Regions member Stanislav Melnik died of a gunshot with his death treated as suicide.

On February 25, several hours before his trial, the Mayor of Melitopol Sergey Valter was found hanged leaving no suicide note.

The next day, February 26, deputy chief of Melitopol police, Aleksandr Bordyuga, who reportedly acted as Valter’s lawyer, was found dead in his garage.

On February 26, a former MP and ex-chairman of Zaporozhye Regional State Administration was found dead with a gun wound to his neck. His death is being investigated as a suicide.

On February 28, former member of the Party of Regions, Mikhail Chechetov, jumped from the window of his 17th floor apartment in Kiev, leaving a suicide note.

On March 14, a 32-year-old prosecutor Sergey Melnichuk fell from a window of a 9th floor apartment in Odessa.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 16 Apr 2015 13:37

^ Do note that this is a mysterious death too. Even this needs to be added to the list that Deans conveniently collated earlier.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 16 Apr 2015 14:41

The portrayal of fascists as extreme evil and themselves as liberators is causing great discomfort to the western elites in the current ukraine crisis today. Propaganda wise they are between the devil and the deep sea.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2015 08:58

One more opposition person found dead per BBC.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Apr 2015 12:15

"Give us this day our daily murder of the opposotion.."
Where is the West's indignation and outrage?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/a ... les-buzyna

Pro-Russia journalist shot dead in Kiev

Oles Buzyna, a former editor-in-chief and one-time parliamentary candidate, was killed on Thursday by shots fired from a passing car

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 17 Apr 2015 15:27

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3071336 ... mf-program

Forbes labeled the new rating for Ukraine as "super-duper junk."

Per the S&P release, "The downgrade reflects our expectation that a default on foreign currency central government debt is a virtual certainty." S&P also warned that any 'exchange offer' - an offer mandated under the IMF latest loan package to Ukraine - will constitute default. "Once the distressed exchange offer has been confirmed, we would likely lower the foreign currency ratings on Ukraine to SD and the affected issue rating(s) to D."

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 17 Apr 2015 15:41

The sound is increasing in the west about the $3 billion that Ukraine has to pay Russia in December. They dont want Ukraine to pay the money.
Amusingly, this will also give a good excuse to the Tsipras govt. not to return the aid money which is much larger.

Bhurishrava · Post by **Bhurishrava** » 18 Apr 2015 01:14

Ukrainian `nationalists` claim responsibility for murder of prominet pro-Russians in Kiev.

German link.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/u ... 29316.html