Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Singha
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Singha » 27 Nov 2018 15:02

I have posted an update on the kerch situation in the international military thread.

about half of ukraine's coastline is behind that bridge and dozens of ships are now blocked at both ends of the straits.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 29 Nov 2018 20:30

The Russians and Ukranians had equal rights to access the Sea of Azov.After the return of the Crimea to Russia- by an overwhelming referendum in favour of the same and Putin building the majestic Kerch bridge in an incredible 2+ yrs time only, the Crimea was linked directly to Russia after centuries. The earlier bridge built during the times of the Czars, collapsed shortly after it was opened.

All that Russia wanted from the UKR was info. when its ships transited the bridge for security purposes.A terrorist vessel stocked with explosives could destroy key parts of the bridge's supports in a suicide mission.Egged on by the West, and with Poroshenko's rapidly declining popularity threatening his weak grip on power, and with elections due shortly , the UKR asininely and arrogantly tried to enter the straits without prior info./ permission and their boats anx crew were humiliatingly captured by minor Ru naval and special forces!

The UKR has now played into Russia's hands.It can now throttle Mariupol and other UKR ports in the region and render them impotent in the future by preventing any UKR shipping of any kind accessing these ports vital for logistic supplies to UKR territory under its control in the east south of rebel- held territory.The eventual outcome? The capitulation of the UKR east and the entire Sea of Azov becoming sovereign Ru territory. Putin's approval ratings just got a bonus boost thanks to Poro's arrogance and imbecilic act of aggression!

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 01 Dec 2018 06:53

I am trying to figure out why Comrade Putin is so gung-ho when meeting Bin Salman. There was something very special there, like "we did it, comrade!"
Did what? Also, given the net result, that "incident" was no accident or coincidence. Who ordered the tanker to block the strait so conveniently?
I see that UKR has now banned entry of the Balaclava Boyz from Russia into Ukraine (ages 15 to 60!!) . Will Putin now send 100,000 Ludmilas and Natashas with bottle of vodka I wonder.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 03 Dec 2018 22:24

UlanBatori wrote:I am trying to figure out why Comrade Putin is so gung-ho when meeting Bin Salman. There was something very special there, like "we did it, comrade!" .


Russia and Saudi each produce around 10.5 million barrels of oil / day.
They have probably just agreed to cut production (to around 10 MBD) which will increase oil prices by $10, to $ 60.
$ 10 per barrel for over 3 Billion barrels exported by each country is a US$ 30+ billion gain to each country.

At the same time, $ 60 is enough for Trump to claim his intervention reduced prices from a peak of $ 86 this year and low enough for US shale
production (under a lot of financial stress) to be uneconomical.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Singha » 03 Dec 2018 22:29

i think history will judge the shale oil boom as a ecological devastation that will take 100s of years to recover from.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ramana » 05 Dec 2018 02:26

UB, Oil will go down to $45.
Bear picture with MBS is a geopolitical move after the Kashhogi mess.

I hear truce in Sea of Azov.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ramana » 05 Dec 2018 02:27

UlanBatori wrote:Sea of Azov has been shut off by Russian Navy: Tanker across the Kerch Bridge. Mariupol cut off from Naval access. Winter must be at hand there: Just enough time for a quick takeover from land side?

Bridge seems pretty low-clearance for such a chokepoint: Can even a destroyer go through without leaving the Captain's Chocolate Machine on the road bridge?



I hear Sea of Azov is calm now.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Dec 2018 02:51

Oil will go down to $45.


By the grace of ATM! This may save the Indian rupee a little bit. I consider this the LAST chance for NaMo GOI to move towards energy self-reliance, and cut back on rampant use of imported oil. The economics of Peak Oil will kick in, shale or no shale.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 05 Dec 2018 09:19

Breaking news: Ukraine asks NATO help as it "prepares for war with Russia". :eek: :shock:

I thought they kicked the Georgian turkey out? Has his folly infected the UkBapzi netas? If Putin is cavorting with G-20 they can't be taking this very seriously, I mean what leader goes wandering around phoren jaunts when their country is going to war?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Singha » 05 Dec 2018 10:16

hysterics to pull in nato into a fight, and then a base near odessa.

its the same meme as TSP begging for US/Saudi intervention in cashmere.

ukrainian navy flagship is a solitary old krivak-III FFG. rest are more like FACs and gunboats that too in small number. in a 1:1 fight the russians will sink their navy and blocade their entire coast in a day or two. in addition russia has placed missile batteries into the crimea island which straddles the ukraine coast in the middle.

its a more even contest on land where ukraine does have better resources. but their staying power is minimal vs a serious russian push.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ramana » 05 Dec 2018 23:48

DT is not planning on leaving Af-Pak to deploy in Ukraine.
GD, Hopefully no more push comes from Putin.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Dec 2018 03:45

I think the whole thing has the fragrance of a Putin chess gambit. Absolute precision with level of provocation tuned with expertise. Nothing is going to happen until deeper winter. The denial of port access (OK, they say "partially" unblocked now) seems a ploy to cut fuel oil deliveries or at least drive up the price of fuel in UkBapZistan. Also to convey that the act can be repeated at any time. A few months of fuel starvation would set the stage for a balaclava boyz action, starting with blowing up fuel dumps. Then they will find that all roads from and to Mariupol are suddenly impassable.

Mariupol is unfinished business from a couple of years ago. Only question was when. Looks like Putin was waiting for the Syrian tamasha to end.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Singha » 06 Dec 2018 10:49

sections of civilians in places like mariupol have close relatives in the donetsk and luhansk peoples republics and are not averse to russian rule so long as they get roti kapra makaan and jobs going.

the kiev elites are dancing to a different drummer though.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Apr 2019 04:13

Finally! A nation where democracy has really taken root. Ukraine elects a Comedian

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedian with no political experience who plays the country’s president on a TV show, has won Ukraine’s presidential election in a landslide, according to a national exit poll. The poll showed Zelenskiy receiving 73 percent of the vote, sweeping away Ukraine’s incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, who conceded defeat.
At a campaign party in a bar in Kiev, packed with hundreds of journalists, Zelenskiy declared victory. As the exit poll’s results were announced, confetti was shot into the air and Zelenskiy thanked his campaign volunteers, saying they had “protected Ukraine.” Poroshenko announced he was conceding shortly afterwards.



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