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Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 06 Feb 2015 18:34

We have exhausted the earlier one. So creating a new one here.

Still trying to come to terms with whats happening and furiously trying to speak to 5faced contacts to figure whats what.

There is major talk of rapid forces and Uk just got into a military agreement and brigade level setup with Poland and Lithuania.

Putin surely isn't a Hitler?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Feb 2015 20:08

Putin should foot-drag at least until Debaltseve is liberated. Ceasefire in Horlivka is good - it was the rebels under pressure there.

What are "rapid forces" going to do when practically everyone has an AK-47 and there are anti-tank missiles parked in most garages? If they come in on foot, they will go out feet first or in pieces. They don't have the resources to pour in many armored battalions (only Putin has those in the nbd).

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 06 Feb 2015 22:37

Civilians evacuated from Debaltseve

Now it's free-4-all shelling and house-to-house clearing the UkBapZis? Hope they have sense enough to surrender?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 06 Feb 2015 22:43

The Debaltseve offensive will be used by the USA as the excuse to feed the Kyiv-Ukraine-nazis more heavy weapons (probably sourced from poland for deniability if they don't want to be openly seen to be giving these weapons) -- all of this is only because the USA cares about freedom and democracy all over the world, being such a caring and wonderful country.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 07 Feb 2015 08:55

Oh, crud. Now there are two new ukraine threads. Can the admins delete/lock the one I started. I must be going blind, cause I looked for a new one all over.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 07 Feb 2015 10:33

Image

This is how you justify arming ukraine. And Russia hasnt even called in the $3B.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 11:00

I think the core goal of Russia is now to create a business like/working relationship with EU/US rather then Friendly Relationship.

Reason being in the past 20 years when Russia was friendly with West NATO has always increased its footprint towards Russia and no where it it stopped or much less reduced.

Kremlin thinks having a working relationship with West with the threat of War in case NATO expands towards Russian border is more viable strategy in long term instead of being chummy with the West.

West has indeed shaken with Russian reaction to Ukraine and now the fear of War in Europe prompts Germany and France to working towards a peaceful resolution.

The threat of Arming Ukraine has unnerved EU as Merkel stated yesterday talks are the only option and French are firmly opposed to Ukraine being part of NATO and Holland said it in as much words.

Russian Economy would just re-orient toward BRICS and APAC and what ever Energy relation they have with west will just be a business one.

Also would expect hardening of US/UK relation towards Russia and similar hardening of Russian relation with them and UN voting would be fun time as it was the case during SU times and China would end up with Russia most time in UN voting.

All in All we would see a different geo-politics after Ukraine crisis something Kremlim is consciously implementing , as Kissenger once said Being Enemy of US earns more Respect then being Friends

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 07 Feb 2015 11:10

Nope.

They (EU) see the NATO chief moving bricks, and dont have much of a choice but to try to avoid the brickbats. Russia would be stupid to think there is anything but sanctions ahead. There is no shaking, they can see what we are speculating.

Its not easy to do any economic "reorienting". There is a ton of pain ahead for europe. And unless poland changes its tune there isnt anything germany/france can do to stop the juggernaut.

I doubt france/germany have the influence needed. But its all good, Spring is weeks away, lets have an offensive.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 07 Feb 2015 11:50

Bombs are going off everywhere in Ukraine where Russian speaking people live.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31107456

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby JE Menon » 07 Feb 2015 14:20

The EU has made a huge mistake vis a vis Ukraine: it was essentially a project that:

1. Some Americans wanted. It was the remnants of the cold warrior strategic enclave (NATO/US military/SD/DoD) bureaucracy giving a parting shot essentially to both the old enemy - a reviving Russia; which the political opponents of the current administration latched on to as a win-win (either they push Obama into a politically debilitating European war, or they have a stick to beat him with as the Russians react - so far it's the latter). In short, a very irresponsible series of actions and decisions.

2. Some Europeans wanted, and others guardedly support. This can be seen as a series of concentric circles with the innermost consisting of Britain, Poland, and a couple of statements-on-demand Baltic states including especially Estonia. The next circle comprises Germany, France and to some extent the Scandinavians, particularly Sweden, and a cautiously hedging Holland; the outer circles, with highly nuanced and subtly differentiated positions, comprise the rest of what we can refer to for all practical purposes as the "irrelevant EU" (Spain, Italy, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, etc). Not surprisingly, perhaps, the strongest opposition to a hard line on Russia comes from this group, Italy, Hungary and Greece are notable.

3. Appears clearly and deliberately aimed at weakening the Russian strategic position and posture on the Eurasian landmass, cumulatively over the past decade and a half or thereabouts. To suggest that the repeated treaty breaches, the constant probing on its borders, and the deliberate provocation of essentially making Ukraine an offer it could not refuse, would not get the traditionally wary Russians to flex their sword arm is disingenuous, and foolhardy. Consider how the US might view a Russian proposal for economic integration and military association with a hypothetically weak Canada. The initial Russian response could have been less heavy-handed, and demonstrated greater finesse, which would have placed them (possibly) in a better position than they are now in terms of tactical economic and diplomatic pressures.

4. Will erode US-EU cohesion and further undermine NATO's raison d'etre (rather than enhance it as some of the above-mentioned cold warriors may be hoping for). It is clear that Ukraine is not as immediate an issue for the US as it is for, say, Germany or Poland, or of course Ukraine. For its part, Britain, has quite faithfully played the second fiddle as usual, but with not with the usual verve and foot-stomping vigour. It appears to have sensed that there may be unpredictable outcomes detrimental to its basic interests. Germany and France are making a show of leading the EU, but are still playing at least partly to a collective US-EU-NATO script. Although government actions may belie reality, there are enough analysts, intellectuals and opinion makers pointing out that Russia is not the Soviet Union of old, that it has legitimate concerns on the ground, and who on earth is going to supply the gas reliably and predictably? In short, unlike during the cold war, US-EU-NATO proclamations about reality, intentions and motives are no longer taken at face value by even their own populations.

There's more to it of course, and I'll probably expand it into something a bit more substantial...

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 07 Feb 2015 14:37

JeM: Good cop (germany, and lackey france), Bad cop (uk, poland, baltics, everone else), odd man (greece).

1. This is a long term plan dusted off. No one was taken by surprise. And they are still bidding their time. Come monday and the russian vice defense minister will be sanctioned. How long before Putin?

2. All europeans wanted. Some are more pragmatic than others.

3. Wasnt this clear at Syria?

4. Is all drama for public consumption. Situation on the ground has *some* life. It could be a syria stalemate. Wont be a georgia one. Russia would be imbecile if it accepted another syria next door.

The notion that "X didnt know" or "X is not supporting" needs to be dropped. This sort of business takes years of planning. Everybody knew. The escalation hasnt stopped on the EU side. Wont. After ministers, Putin himself could be sanctioned any day. And the 5k dead have to be counted in some way, or he will likely face a down spring/summer.

Rusdia isnt getting her economy back. So this turning tide is the small advantage it has. Revolutions can happen in the west too. Lets see if Spain (thr basque!) or greece, or one of the baltics decides to join in the festivities.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 07 Feb 2015 15:46

The initial Russian response could have been less heavy-handed, and demonstrated greater finesse, which would have placed them (possibly) in a better position than they are now in terms of tactical economic and diplomatic pressures.


Dunno what you mean.
The Russians have been presented with fait accompli and are reacting to it mostly. They dont have a choice but to do what they are doing. Of course the other choice is to loose the game in Ukraine.
The only other point that I might want to add is that Germany has gone along with this really dumb American plan because Merkel and a section of German elite think of Putin as a totalitarian dictator. The powers that he has accumulated around himself and the nature of Russian political system is seen as regressive in Germany.
The poles and lithuanians are just nuts. It was a mistake to take them into EU. EU`s relationship with Russia is going to be tough forever because of these nutty states.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 07 Feb 2015 16:02

Some British military officer said that UK has been sidelined as France and Germany have taken the lead in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
This put londonistani chhaddhis in a twist and hurt their pride. Being an American stooge doesnt hurt their pride though. :roll:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -says.html

Here is foreign secretary of UK saying that no solution is possible without Papa US. And trying to chipkao himself to papa`s pallu for some leftover ijjat. :lol:

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 07 Feb 2015 19:25

JEMenon wrote: This can be seen as a series of concentric circles with the innermost consisting of Britain, Poland, and a couple of statements-on-demand Baltic states including especially Estonia. The next circle comprises Germany, France and to some extent the Scandinavians, particularly Sweden, and a cautiously hedging Holland; the outer circles, with highly nuanced and subtly differentiated positions, comprise the rest of what we can refer to for all practical purposes as the "irrelevant EU" (Spain, Italy, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, etc).


JEM, It seems like the Netherlans moved to the inner circle after the Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down and killed 179 citizens -- which was used to escalate the war back when it happened. Could have even be deliberately planned if they needed an excuse to escalate back then.

On top of it, the Hubris of Obama and his advisers where they openly mock Putin for not having any grand strategy but just thrashing around...if BO and co. take themselves as being smarter than Putin, events that followed say otherwise.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby JE Menon » 07 Feb 2015 19:41

>> It seems like the Netherlans moved to the inner circle

Yes R, the Dutch specialise in acting close to the shadows while staying (just barely) relevant in the European scheme of things. They have been decidedly non-committal about the results of the investigation... at least on state level. They could be seen in the inner circle, or the next one; I don't see them as part of the inner circle.

Yes, clearly hubris is visible on the American side.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 20:53

Looks like Japan is trying to make most of Russia as Aggressor that West is propagating

Russia Riled by Japan’s Renewed Claims to Disputed Kuril Islands

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday it was upset by Japan's renewed attempts to lay claims to a disputed island chain in East Asia.

The ministry reminded Tokyo that the status of the Southern Kuril Islands – called Northern Territories in Japan – was stipulated by the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty that handed over the control of four islands to Russia.

The statement came after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed earlier on Saturday to reclaim the islands, and also conclude a long-overdue treaty with Russia. Russia and Japan failed to strike a post-WWII peace deal over the island row.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/asia/20150207/10 ... z3R4n7a4x7

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 20:56

Seems like Russia has now been patient not to tilt towards China in Japan-China Dispute and maintained its neutrality too long.

If Japan continues on this path instigated by US , It would be wise of Russia to see the direction of the wind and make appropriate policy changes on China-Japan dispute.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 07 Feb 2015 23:01

“I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily,” Merkel said. “I have to put it that bluntly.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... ela-merkel
Ukraine crisis will not be solved by military means, says Angela Merkel

German chancellor admits, however, that she is unsure whether the current diplomatic push to end the conflict in the east of the country will succeed
German chancellor Angela Merkel says she wants to secure peace in Europe with Russia and not against it
Chris Johnston and agencies

Saturday 7 February 2015 10.50 GMT

Angela Merkel has said the crisis in Ukraine will not be solved by military means, and that the peace agreement struck last September needs to be implemented.

Speaking at the Munich security conference on Saturday, the German chancellor said she wanted to secure peace in Europe with Russia and not against it.

Germany has opposed aiding Ukrainian troops for fear of worsening the conflict, which has already cost more than 5,000 lives, but the idea has many supporters in Washington.

“I cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he believes he will lose militarily,” Merkel said. “I have to put it that bluntly.”

Disagreement has emerged between Europe and the US about how best to confront Putin as Moscow-backed rebels make gains in eastern Ukraine. Barack Obama is under pressure from some in Congress to sent weapons to Kiev.

Nato’s top military commander, US Air Force general Philip Breedlove, gave the strongest signal yet in Munich that he wanted the west to consider sending weapons to Ukraine.

“I don’t think we should preclude out of hand the possibility of the military option,” he said, adding: “There is no conversation about boots on the ground.”

Merkel told the conference she could not be certain the talks she and the French president, François Hollande, held on Friday in Moscow with the Russian leader would result in a peaceful solution to the crisis.

“But it is in my view and the French president’s view definitely worth trying. We owe it to the people affected in Ukraine, at the very least,” she said.

Hollande said: “If we don’t manage to find not just a compromise but a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly well what the scenario will be. It has a name, it’s called war.”

The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said he hoped sincerely that the latest diplomatic drive would “produce results, and those results will be supported by the parties to this conflict”.

The Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, said a peace proposal aimed at ending clashes with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine could work.

Merkel is expected to meet the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and Lavrov on Saturday, along with Poroshenko and the US vice-president, Joe Biden.


The focus at the Munich conference is on a new blueprint agreed in overnight talks in Moscow between Putin, Merkel and Hollande. The aim is to reach a solution to the crisis before it turns into a major east-west confrontation.

No details were released about the Moscow talks, but the new plan is likely to be based on the failed September Minsk ceasefire and peace accords that the west accuses Moscow of failing to adhere to.


“Work is under way to prepare the text of a possible joint document to implement the Minsk agreements,” said Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, who described the Moscow talks as “substantial and constructive”.

Merkel and Hollande, who both left Moscow late on Friday night, made no public comment after the meeting and are to discuss the plan again with Poroshenko by telephone on Sunday.

German media broadly welcomed the latest initiative on Saturday, saying time was running out to avoid a disaster for Europe.


Spiegel Online said that with Merkel expected to meet Barack Obama on Monday, “this weekend will be crucial for how the crisis in eastern Ukraine and relations with Russia develop”.

“If Merkel fails in Moscow, the US will want to punish Putin,” it said.

Fighting in eastern Ukraine has claimed the lives of five civilians in the past 24 hours, government and rebel officials said.

After a limited truce to allow civilians to escape the violence offered some hope on Friday, the Ukraine government said missiles hit the embattled town of Debaltseve on Saturday.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 23:02

Disconnecting from Russia SWIFT seriously worsen relations between Moscow and the West - the head of VTB
Disabling Russian banks from the international payment system SWIFT led to a serious deterioration of the situation in the relations between the West and Russia, told reporters in Munich head VTB Andrei Kostin .

He took part in a meeting of Russian and German business leaders at a working lunch on Saturday.

Kostin said that sanctions against Russia, are evidence of the economic war against Moscow . "It is true, all the measures that are taken West - a method of conducting economic warfare, trade, finance," - he said.

"Disabling SWIFT - use much heavier "Weapons" in the war and, of course, would mean a serious deterioration of the general climate and the general situation in relations with the West, "- said the banker. If such a move is still followed, it will have "Somehow adapt to the knee", - said the head of VTB.

"Of course, banks will not stop working, but it is seriously complicate our work, the work of our clients because the calculations, of course, will be carried out slowly," - he said.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 23:03

In the absence of agreement on Ukraine threatens world war - Hollande

French President Francois Hollande warned about the possibility of war, if we fail to reach an agreement on Ukraine, reports on Saturday the site of the French newspaper Le Figaro.

"I think it's - the last chance. If we can not come to a lasting peace agreement, we know perfectly further scenario: it has a name, this scenario is called the war ", - quotes edition Hollande.

So French President commented on yesterday's visit to Moscow , during which he discussed the Ukrainian crisis with Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Meanwhile, earlier on Saturday Angela Merkel expressed uncertainty about the success of this visit.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 23:16

Check the video :lol:

Poroshenko presents 'proof of Russian involvement' in Ukraine war at Munich Security Conference


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2015 23:50

Lavrov discussed with the Prime Minister of India advisor situation in Ukraine

MOSCOW, February 7 - RIA Novosti. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed with the advisor to the Prime Minister of India's National Security Ajit Dovalil situation in Ukraine and the settlement of the situation around the Iranian nuclear issue, Russian Foreign Ministry said on its website.

Lavrov meeting was held on Saturday Dov "in the fields" Munich Security Conference.

"The sides discussed issues of further development of Russian-Indian relations, as well as a number of the international agenda, including the settlement of the situation around Iran's nuclear program and the situation in Ukraine," - said in a statement.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby KLNMurthy » 08 Feb 2015 00:36

Tuvaluan wrote:
JEMenon wrote: This can be seen as a series of concentric circles with the innermost consisting of Britain, Poland, and a couple of statements-on-demand Baltic states including especially Estonia. The next circle comprises Germany, France and to some extent the Scandinavians, particularly Sweden, and a cautiously hedging Holland; the outer circles, with highly nuanced and subtly differentiated positions, comprise the rest of what we can refer to for all practical purposes as the "irrelevant EU" (Spain, Italy, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, etc).


JEM, It seems like the Netherlans moved to the inner circle after the Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down and killed 179 citizens -- which was used to escalate the war back when it happened. Could have even be deliberately planned if they needed an excuse to escalate back then.

On top of it, the Hubris of Obama and his advisers where they openly mock Putin for not having any grand strategy but just thrashing around...if BO and co. take themselves as being smarter than Putin, events that followed say otherwise.

if you are a defensive status quo power like Russia then your actions will tend to look like thrashing around, without grand strategy. By definition, aggressive and expansionist agenda needs a grand strategy.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 08 Feb 2015 01:28

Looks like Japan is trying to make most of Russia as Aggressor that West is propagating


There was nothing new in what Shinzo Abe said. Nothing new in the Russian position either.
As long as Japan stays in US embrace, Russia wont give any islands. Its that simple. And Japan will stay in US embrace till it manages to eke out some defensive capability of its own.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Feb 2015 07:21

More people about to die
DONETSK, Ukraine (Reuters) - Pro-Russian separatists have intensified shelling of government forces on all front lines and appear to be amassing forces for new offensives on the key railway town of Debaltseve and the coastal city of Mariupol, Ukraine's military said on Saturday.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 08 Feb 2015 12:12

RSoami wrote:
Looks like Japan is trying to make most of Russia as Aggressor that West is propagating


There was nothing new in what Shinzo Abe said. Nothing new in the Russian position either.
As long as Japan stays in US embrace, Russia wont give any islands. Its that simple. And Japan will stay in US embrace till it manages to eke out some defensive capability of its own.


Thats not true , check the recent statement of Japan foreign minister equating Kuril island issue with Ukraine

http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/772529

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 08 Feb 2015 12:26

Unipolar world unacceptable to Russia: Putin

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/europ ... 977678.htm
MOSCOW, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Saturday that his country will never accept a unipolar world.

Noting that there is one "undisputed" unipolar leadership trying to control the current world and force others to obey, Putin said Russia would never accept such attempts.

At the congress of Russia's Federation of Independent Trade Unions, Putin stressed that Russia does not intend to be at war with anyone and is always willing to cooperate.

He reiterated that sanctions against Russia would never have the desired effect, although they do have a negative impact on the country's economy.

"We must realize this, and make all possible efforts to strengthen our sovereignty, including in the economic sphere," Putin said in a statement posted online, pledging Russia's firm stance against external pressure which was imposed on the country over Ukraine crisis.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on Saturday told the on-going 51st Munich Security Conference that Washington would continue to provide Ukraine with security assistance.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who is present at the conference, reiterated that North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO) military buildup near the Russian borders is fueling up confrontation and undermining European security.

"Lavrov stressed that NATO support of Kiev's military action in southern Ukraine hampers attempts to find a peaceful resolution of the deep domestic crisis in Ukraine," said an online statement released by the ministry.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded by saying that all the measures taken by NATO were defensive and promised to maintain an open dialogue channel with Moscow.

Defense ministers of the NATO decided on Thursday to strengthen the alliance's presence in eastern Europe and the Baltic region and expand the size of its rapid reaction force to 30,000.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 08 Feb 2015 18:55

Thats not true , check the recent statement of Japan foreign minister equating Kuril island issue with Ukraine
http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/772529


Thankyou.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ShauryaT » 08 Feb 2015 19:07

Goodbye, Putin
Really?
The neo-tsarist ideology of Russian imperialism, Orthodox revival, and anti-Western Slavophilism that Putin has constructed has limited appeal to the cynical men who help him run Russia. Therefore, Putin’s ability to retain their loyalty rests primarily on his control of the country’s financial resources. Thanks to the record-high energy prices that accompanied his assumption of power in 1999, Putin was able to personally purloin some $45 billion and still have enough money to raise the country’s standard of living, strengthen the Russian military, and keep his cronies happy. No longer. Oil prices have collapsed and are likely to stay low; Western sanctions are hitting hard; and the Russian economy is on the downswing.

Sooner or later Putin will be forced to make some cuts, but it is hard to know where that money will come from. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine and his anti-Western ideological crusade, reducing military funding will be unfeasible. And Putin’s popularity would take a serious hit if he were to roll back support to the lower classes. The only option, therefore, may be to stop his cronies from dipping into state coffers, even if doing so will alienate them.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Feb 2015 19:07

Debaltseve or Mariupol? Race 2 b first to get vodka replenishment

“Another peace agreement is useless and we don’t need it because it will only favour the Ukranian side. Yes we do have the Russian forces emblem, on our uniforms, because the uniform came from Russia. We don’t have uniforms here. Actually we are Novorossiya, New Russians. There are no Russian troops here,” said a [pro-democracy freedom] fighter in [pro-democracy liberated, vodka-blessed] village of Vuhlehirsk.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Feb 2015 19:11

Oil prices have collapsed and are likely to stay low;


In ur dreams.
Fidelity Investments analysts point to the fact that oil prices have been rising the past 2 weeks. In Ulan Bator, unleaded regular went from 1.95 to 2.09 between Sundin raat and Mondin sabere. Bracing for next leap on the way back up to 3/50. OPEC predicts a rise to $200/barrel.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 08 Feb 2015 19:41

The best time to buy oil stocks!,great opportunity guys! The sh*t will inevitably hit the fan.You can always,always depend upon US State Dept. stupidity combine with White House arrogance. The new US def. budget has earmarked funds for fanning the flames in the MEast and UKR.

Putin is now the new Hitler according to the US.Unfortunately,the EU doesn't agree and the derision with which the peace efforts are being ridiculed by the US will only widen the rifts between the EU and US.Putin must be laughing in the Kremlin at the asinine Yanqui attitude,only serving his purpose more.

It's simply amazing,Yanqui saber-rattling at Putin ,ranting and raving at him,frothing-at-the-mouth McCain and Gen.Breed-Hate,trying desperately aiming at Putin from the backs of their EU/NATO partners,but afraid to get involved themselves!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... itler.html
Ukraine crisis: US officials compare peace efforts to appeasing Hitler

“History shows us that dictators will always take more if you let them,” says John McCain, comparing Angela Merkel and François Hollande's talks with Vladimir Putin to Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler .

By Justin Huggler in Berlin
08 Feb 2015

A rift between Europe and the US over the Ukraine crisis appears to be growing after senior American figures reportedly compared the peace initiative by Angela Merkel and François Hollande to appeasement of Hitler in the run-up to the Second World War.

In a meeting attended by General Philip Breedlove, Nato’s military commander, and Victoria Nuland, the US’s most senior European diplomat, Angela Merkel was described as “defeatist” for her opposition to arming Ukrainian forces, according to details leaked to Bild newspaper.

Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande’s peace initiative was dismissed as “Moscow bull****” at the meeting of American delegates to the Munich Security Conference, held behind closed doors at the conference hotel.

Senator John McCain reportedly compared the initiative to the Munich Agreement in 1938 between Neville Chamberlain, the British Prime Minister at the time, and Adolf Hitler, which allowed Nazi Germany to annexe the Sudetenland.

“History shows us that dictators will always take more if you let them,” Senator McCain allegedly said. “They will not be dissuaded from their brutal behaviour when you fly to meet them to Moscow – just as leaders once flew to this city.” The reported remarks came as a new peace summit to be held in Minsk on Wednesday was announced, following a phone call between Mrs Merkel, Mr Hollande, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president.

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The four leaders plan to meet face-to-face at the summit in the Belarusian capital, together with representatives of the pro-Russian separatists rebels, to continue talks on Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande’s peace initiative.

But Mr Putin said the summit would go ahead only if leaders reach agreement on a “number of points”.

“We will be aiming for Wednesday, if by that time we manage to agree on a number of points which we’ve been intensely discussing lately,” the Russian president said in televised remarks.

Delegates at the American meeting in Munich discussed how to press ahead with arming Ukrainian forces despite the new push for peace, according to the report in Bild.

“We would not be able to deliver enough weapons for Ukraine to defeat Russia. That’s not our goal,” Gen Breedlove reportedly said.

“But we must try to raise the price on the battlefield for Putin to slow this whole problem down so sanctions and other measures have time to work,” the military commander added.

John Kerry, the secretary of state, denied there was a rift in his speech to the security conference on Sunday morning.

“Let me assure everybody there is no division, there is no split – I hear people trying to create one,” Mr Kerry said.

"We are united, we are working closely together, we all agree that this challenge will not end through military force.”

But Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German foreign minister, appeared to address the issue in his speech. “I cannot consider it as easy as those who suspect cowardice or forgetfulness of history behind our scepticism,” he said.

“Those who are so sure also have to address the question: would the alternatives that are currently being discussed ... really achieve our common goal of preventing thousands more deaths and getting out of the spiral of escalation?

“Are not we already close to the point of no return?”


http://rt.com/news/230291-munich-confer ... ne-crisis/
Munich conference: Russia ‘hate fest’ or split between Western allies?
February 08, 2015
World leaders gathered in Germany to discuss international security on Saturday, with the meeting somewhat descending into ‘Russia-bashing’. But the West showed itself to be more divided than ever on Ukraine, with the EU and US drifting further apart.

Follow RT's LIVE UPDATES on Munich Security Conference

The Americans led the harsh anti-Russian rhetoric at the conference, and once again, they did not exclude the possibility of lethal arms deliveries to Ukraine in the future.

Speaking to reporters, NATO’s top commander in Europe, General Philip Breedlove, said that although no troops would be sent to Ukraine, providing Kiev with lethal weapons and equipment was on the cards.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, British Conservative politician and former foreign secretary Malcom Rifkind, and US senator Lindsey Graham notably took a pronounced anti-Russian stance, blaming the Kremlin for the violence in Ukraine.

READ MORE: NATO top commander in Europe says 'military option' possible in Ukraine

Moscow hit back, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressing in his Munich speech that it is the US and its European allies who have played the key destabilizing role in Ukraine, from helping to overthrow the democratically elected government to failing to condemn the new Kiev government for shelling the civilian population in the east with cluster bombs.

“Through every step, as the crisis has developed, our American colleagues and the EU under their influence have tried to escalate the situation,” Lavrov said, adding that the West has always been urging world governments to enter into dialogue with opposition groups or figures, even when it came to extremist groups such as the Taliban. However, in Ukraine it has bluntly been supporting every one of Kiev’s actions.

READ MORE: Lavrov: US escalated Ukraine crisis at every stage, blamed Russia

Lavrov then spoke with US Secretary of State John Kerry, warning him that Washington’s plans to supply Kiev with military equipment might have “unpredictable consequences”, including “disrupting the efforts to resolve the crisis in southeastern Ukraine,” according to a Facebook statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry. He stressed that Russia and the US agree that the only basis for any solution is a comprehensive national dialogue on constitutional reform in Ukraine.

Russia will not sacrifice its national interest, but is ready to “engage constructively” with the US, Lavrov stressed.

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko meets U.S. Vice President Joe Biden as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Victoria Nuland (L-R) at the 51st Munich Security Conference on February 7, 2015. (Reuters/Michaela Rehle)

At the press conference, the Russian top diplomat was pelted with questions implying that Moscow is responsible for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

“It felt like orchestrated hate fest. Obviously these people live in a surreal world. The US try to change the balance of forces in eastern Europe and the EU join the band wagon,” Srdja Trifkovic, foreign affairs editor of the Chronicles magazine told RT, adding that “whenever a major power wants to change the status-quo, the result is a crisis.”


Despite the recent efforts to try and to stop the violence and find a peaceful way out of the Ukrainian conflict, with French and German leaders having taken an initiative to discuss a peace plan with Russia’s President Putin and Ukraine’s President Poroshenko, the actions of the West are still “profoundly self-righteous,” critics say.

READ MORE: Hopes for breakthrough: Moscow talks on Ukraine 'constructive,' joint doc 'possible'

“What I saw today in the press conference is a total unwillingness from the European, Western side to even take into consideration the arguments of the other side...the questions they pose are so selective, so predetermined by their self-righteousness – that is not the way you try to get peace,” former security consultant at the OSCE Lode Vanoost told RT, adding that the West is hypocritical to a level “so profound that [its behavior] is not a serious way to try to get peace.”

However, despite the overwhelmingly anti-Russian rhetoric coming from the West, there are increasingly numbers of politicians who are softening their stance.

Following the Friday meeting of President Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande in Moscow, which was said to be “constructive,” the French leader revealed that the discussion included the creation of a larger demilitarized zone between the Kiev and militia-controlled territories. He also called for “quite strong” autonomy for Ukraine’s eastern regions.

READ MORE: Hollande: If lasting Ukraine peace not found 'scenario is war'

Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy said on Saturday that Paris does not want a new Cold War, considering that Russia and France having a long history of common interests and values. The former state leader also said that it was Crimea that had chosen to join Russia and it “cannot be blamed” for its choice. Previously, former Czech president, Vaclav Klaus, said that Crimea has “always” been a part of Russia.

READ MORE: Sarkozy: Crimea cannot be blamed for joining Russia

While the European leaders have largely been united in their support for the Kiev government, only a few have agreed with the United States on supplying weapons to Ukraine. Instead, the German leader stressed that the crisis “cannot be resolved militarily” and that sending more arms can only worsen the conflict.

The issue of military aid to Ukraine is now considered to be the main subject causing the divide in the West, with many in Europe realizing that the potential threat of an escalating conflict on its territory exists.

READ MORE: Europe reticent about supplying Ukraine with weapons & money

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the 51st Munich Security Conference on February 7, 2015. (RIA Novosti/Flickr MFA Russia)

Political analysts agree that hidden from the public eye, “there is definitely a big divide between the US and the EU on the whole issue of Ukraine,” Vanoost told RT. “It’s very difficult to know how the game will finish, because it's not an open game, it's behind the scenes,” Bruno Drweski, an analyst specializing in eastern Europe, said.

Sanctions against Russia have economically hit the EU itself, but have not affected the US. The conflict is also happening on the European continent, not in America, with the EU generally not eager to further escalate it.

“First of all, the European Union is directly involved if the conflict escalates – which is not the case for the United States. Secondly, in the EU they are realistic enough to know that the government in Kiev is very unstable, that they don't even have full control of all parts of their own military,” Vanoost explained, while speaking about the Western split in regard of the Ukrainian crisis.

However, toning down rhetoric puts some in the firing line, too.

After Merkel said that Europe wants security alongside with Russia, rather against it, and reiterated Berlin’s stance that the Ukrainian conflict must be resolved peacefully, US senator Graham lashed out at the German leader for her refusal to send arms to Ukraine.

“She can't see how arming people who are willing to fight and die for their freedom makes things better,” the US politician said, adding that the West cannot “turn [its] back on the struggling democracy.”

In an effort to silence voices against harsher anti-Russian measures, US Vice President Joe Biden has labeled those questioning sanctions against Moscow “inappropriate and annoying,” Der Spiegel reported, quoting the participants of the Brussels meeting. The US official called on European countries to show unity when it comes to sanctions against Russia. Biden even reportedly added that critics of the policy should be aware that they also benefited from the current low price of oil.

READ MORE: Biden says Europeans questioning Russia sanctions 'inappropriate, annoying' – Spiegel

“The Americans want to run this show, and they have no interest in stopping the crisis in Ukraine because it is really driving a wedge between the Europeans and Russia. And to their [the US’] mind, it is only pushing Europe ever so firmly back into the NATO fold,” Trifkovic told RT.

Meanwhile, Lavrov said Moscow is ready to guarantee agreements between the warring sides if a peaceful solution to the crisis is found, which would satisfy both Kiev and the eastern Ukrainian regions.

READ MORE: Lavrov: US escalated Ukraine crisis at every stage, blamed Russia

Quoting the “aggression” against the federal republic of Yugoslavia, the current crisis has been named “an ongoing assault against the Russian Federation” by the former deputy head of OSCE, Willy Wimmer. Calling for a hastier end to the conflict, which “is the best for all of us,” the ex official of the European security and cooperation organization said that “it's better to have Polish apples in Russian stores than US tanks at the Russian border.”

Tuvaluan
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 08 Feb 2015 20:35

“She can't see how arming people who are willing to fight and die for their freedom makes things better,” the US politician said, adding that the West cannot “turn [its] back on the struggling democracy.”

In an effort to silence voices against harsher anti-Russian measures, US Vice President Joe Biden has labeled those questioning sanctions against Moscow “inappropriate and annoying,” Der Spiegel reported, quoting the participants of the Brussels meeting. The US official called on European countries to show unity when it comes to sanctions against Russia. Biden even reportedly added that critics of the policy should be aware that they also benefited from the current low price of oil.


So that's the summary: Ukrainians need to fight till they all die for the sake of freedom and democracy, and america will sell them whatever weapons they need, and Germany can pay for those weapons. Such awesome strategery from DC...

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 08 Feb 2015 21:09

Yes,T,the beauty is that we sometimes forget that the UKR is actually historically part of Russia. Many Russian defence industries were located in the UKR during Soviet days and there was no UKR historically.This crisis is a throwback to the Congress of Vienna days in the past. History is repeating itself. Therefore by destroying the UKR,the US is actually destroying a part of Russia,Russian heritage and its people. There are only 3 nations on the planet that the US is really afraid of.Russia,with its military might,massive natural resources and land mass,China with its billions ,eco and mil might and India,again with its hard working billions,mil capability and the fact that it is the world's largest democracy,with its unused moral authority,far greater than that of the US. If these 3 nations combine forces,which the US is doing everything to prevent,it will easily surpass the US in eco,military and democratic power.


OCSE chief says supplying weapons to Kiev government forces might push Russians to take more direct role in Ukraine
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... flict-ocse
Arming Ukraine army may escalate conflict, west warned

Julian Borger in Munich
Sunday 8 February 2015
The head of the international organisation monitoring the conflict in Ukraine has said pro-Moscow separatists are constantly being re-armed, but warned that for western states to supply weapons to the Ukrainian army would risk an expansion of the war.

Lamberto Zannier, secretary general of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OCSE), issued the warning at the Munich security conference where the debate over supplying arms to Kiev has pitted eastern European states and US members of Congress against Germany, the UK and other western European countries. The Obama administration says it has not made up its mind.

Zannier said he supported reform and non-lethal support of the Ukrainian army, but saw huge problems in supplying lethal weaponry.

“This carries a risk with it, and the risk is that this will strengthen a narrative we are seeing already appear on the side of the separatists, that they are fighting a war against Nato and against the west,” Zannier told the Guardian in an interview in Munich.

“And if armaments appear from those countries on the Ukrainian side, that will strengthen that narrative and might even push the Russians to take a more direct role in the conflict, because it might push Russia to see itself somehow threatened.”

At the same time, Zannier said there was clear evidence that the separatist arsenal was being continually replenished, including with heavy weapons. Although OSCE monitors had not directly observed military equipment crossing over the border from Russia, because they were being denied access to much of the frontier, he said he could only assume that was where new weapons were coming from.

The secretary general of the OSCE -– Europe’s 57-nation security body – said his monitors in Ukraine had been told by the separatists early on in the conflict that their weapons were drawn from abandoned Ukrainian army stockpiles. But he said that did not explain the weapons being used now.

“We saw this equipment destroyed as a result of combat operations there, but it seems to be constantly replaced. And we see the separatist side doesn’t have problems in terms of stocks of ammunition, in terms of mobility of units and therefore availability of petrol. So there seems to be an activity of constant reinforcement and bringing provisions for the combatants there,” Zannier said.

He added it was hard to say definitively where the new weapons were coming from, as the OSCE had very limited access to the Ukrainian border, although that was supposed to have been agreed by the Minsk ceasefire accord signed last September. There are 250 miles of border not under control of the Ukrainian border guard, with eight crossing points. OSCE monitors are present in just two of them, and are not permitted to patrol the “green border” between those crossing points.

“We have very limited access,” he said. “But we are very present on the other side, on the Ukrainian side. We have never seen from there military equipment going into eastern Ukraine. So we assume that any equipment going into eastern Ukraine should be coming across the border from Russia.”

Russia has consistently denied involvement in Ukraine’s conflict, though its soldiers have been arrested in the country and its military hardware has been spotted crossing the border.

OSCE has two drones intended to help watch the border from the air, but one of them crashed in the past few days, for reasons are still unknown. But even before, the use of the drones was severely limited.

“We found obstacles all the time in using them,” Zannier said. “There was electronic jamming and I was told by the company that is running the operation that is was high-spec military jamming, so we had to use counter-jamming equipment which is very sophisticated and very expensive. We also faced attempts to shoot them down. In one case we were able to record the hostile action by separatist units against our UAV. So these means of aerial control are only effective in conditions where there is respect for the ceasefire.”

He acknowledged that opposing the supply of arms to the Ukrainian army, while the separatists had no shortage of weapons, would be seen as unjust, not least by Kiev.

“I fully agree. My answer to that is we need … to see that no more arms are given to separatists in Ukraine.”

He said that if weapons supplies to the rebels continued, it could provoke western arming of Kiev, which would be the responsibility of those backing the separatists, but he added: “This still doesn’t solve the problem of the risk of the expansion of the conflict.”


PS:No mention of any shortage of vodka supplies too!

http://rt.com/news/230283-sarkozy-crimea-russia-blamed/
Sarkozy: Crimea cannot be blamed for joining Russia
Published time: February 08, 2015
Crimea cannot be blamed for seceding from Ukraine – a country in turmoil – and choosing to join Russia, said former president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy. He also added that Ukraine “is not destined to join the EU.”

READ MORE: French President Hollande calls for broader autonomy for E. Ukraine

“We are part of a common civilization with Russia,” said Sarkozy, speaking on Saturday at the congress of the Union for a Popular Movement Party (UMP), which the former president heads.

“The interests of the Americans with the Russians are not the interests of Europe and Russia,” he said adding that “we do not want the revival of a Cold War between Europe and Russia.”

“Crimea has chosen Russia, and we cannot blame it [for doing so],”
he said pointing out that “we must find the means to create a peacekeeping force to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine.”


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 00:04

“We would not be able to deliver enough weapons for Ukraine to defeat Russia. That’s not our goal,” Gen Breedlove reportedly said.


The goal is to keep bleeding Russia economically.
Also supplying weapons will mean that the two sides will keep killing, hardening the divide between east and west ukraine.
The Americans dont really care how many Ukrainians die in the war.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 09 Feb 2015 00:28

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... -to-europe

He called out the U.S. for negotiating with the Afghan Taliban but -- in his view -- not supporting negotiations between the Ukraine government and the Eastern separatists.
:twisted:

Talking about the possibility of the U.S. giving lethal aid to the Ukrainian military, Lavrov leveled a thinly veiled threat that the Russians might invade Ukraine outright, as they did Georgia seven years ago after what they saw as provocation from President Mikheil Saakashvili.


The threat is very real. Giving arms to Ukraine junta will certainly bring in Russian response.
IMHO, Russia might invade Ukraine outright. The biggest headache will be for the EU.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2015 04:10

I think Russian forces on the Dnieper (grad batteries that can reduce Kiev to the fine Reconstruction-Worthy state of Donetsk and Debaltseve) plus a kind promise to invade the rest at the first sign of any attempt to bring in NATO, would cause the collapse of the Neo Nazi regime. Surely there is a Mukti Bahini inside East Ukraine as well?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby KrishnaK » 09 Feb 2015 05:03

Philip wrote:If these 3 nations combine forces,which the US is doing everything to prevent,it will easily surpass the US in eco,military and democratic power.
:mrgreen: :rotfl: :mrgreen:

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 09 Feb 2015 09:52

[url][/url]
UlanBatori wrote:I think Russian forces on the Dnieper (grad batteries that can reduce Kiev to the fine Reconstruction-Worthy state of Donetsk and Debaltseve) plus a kind promise to invade the rest at the first sign of any attempt to bring in NATO, would cause the collapse of the Neo Nazi regime. Surely there is a Mukti Bahini inside East Ukraine as well?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmGjMak5xcw#t=17

Now that many civilians have been evacuated from the Debaltsevo pocket, here's a recent news clip of Rebel artillery in action against the pocket, with MLRS, SP Guns & towed artillery. Rebels had avoided artillery earlier, since the civilians inside were on their side.
There are probably Russian supporters among the civilians inside the pocket acting as `spotters'.

You would see the rebels in the video don't look like regular army at all- though there's possibly a Russian army arty specialist
somewhere in the background.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 09 Feb 2015 09:57

Putin Interview to Al-Ahram daily

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/23575

QUESTION: How would you assess the situation in Ukraine and around it? What do you think will be the most appropriate way out of the Ukrainian crisis?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: I would like to remind Egyptian readers that the Ukrainian crisis was not caused by the Russian Federation. It has emerged in response to the attempts of the USA and its western allies who considered themselves ‘winners’ of the cold war to impose their will everywhere. Promises of non-expansion of the NATO to the East (given yet to the Soviet authorities) have turned out to be hollow statements. We have seen how NATO's infrastructure was moving closer and closer towards Russian borders and how Russian interests were being ignored.

Moreover, in the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership Program there have been attempts to tear states which had been parts of the former USSR off Russia and to prompt them to make an artificial choice "between Russia and Europe." The Ukrainian crisis has become a high point of these negative trends. We repeatedly warned the USA and its western allies about harmful consequences of their interference in Ukrainian domestic affairs but they did not listen to our opinion.

Last February the USA and a number of EU member states supported the coup d’état in Kiev. The ultranationalists who seized the power using military force put the country on the edge of disruption and started the fratricidal war.

Unfortunately, today we can see how the ‘war party’ in Kiev actively supported from the outside continues its attempts to push the Ukrainian people over the edge of a catastrophe. The situation in Donbas has aggravated dramatically. Ukrainian security forces resumed the bombing of Donetsk, Lugansk and other residential areas in the region. They are building up their military presence there. The "new wave" of mass mobilization has been announced in the country; there are calls for "taking revenge" after summer "military failures" and for a forceful "Ukrainization of Donbas."

Ukraine is militarizing rapidly. We can judge by the statistics: in 2014, the Ukrainian military budget increased by almost 41 percent. This year, according to preliminary data, it will more than triple and reach more than $3 billion – which is about 5 percent of the country's GDP. And this is happening when its economy supported mostly with international, including Russian, funds is in rather deplorable situation.

We certainly feel worried. We hope that common sense will prevail. Russia strongly calls for a comprehensive and exclusively peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis based on the Minsk agreements which were largely achieved owing to the initiative and efforts of the Russian side.

The most important condition for the stabilization of the situation is immediate cease-fire and ending of a so called ‘anti-terrorist’, but in fact punitive, operation in the south-east of Ukraine. Kiev's attempts to exert economic pressure on Donbas and disrupt its daily life only aggravate the situation. This is a dead-end track, fraught with a big catastrophe.

It is evident that the crisis will continue until the Ukrainians themselves agree with each other. Until the unbridled radicalism and nationalism are finished with, and the society is consolidated around positive values and genuine interests of Ukraine. To achieve this, Kiev authorities need to listen to their people, find a common language and reach an agreement with all political forces and regions of the country. They need to elaborate such constitutional state system formula that would provide for a safe and comfortable living for all citizens with human rights being fully observed.

In the meantime, it is necessary to do one's utmost to make all the parties to the conflict gather around the negotiating table. In this context, the Russian side stands for forging sustainable and direct contacts between Kiev and Donetsk and Lugansk, for continued work within the Contact Group. On our part, we intend to actively contribute to that process.


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