Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Cyrano
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Then why pump more arms into Ukraine if one dares to pause and ask.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Jay »

rsingh wrote:
Was he there or not. Is he in Russian custody or not. Very simple question. Do not play with the words.
Singh ji, where have I said he's not in UKR? Infact, below is what I said about this gent's presence in UKR
He has been in UKR for less than a month.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Top Commander and Chief of Staff captured by Russians northwest of Azovstal.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ldev »

Interesting opinion piece on MSNBC of all places!! It is striking that once the weakness in Russia's military was exposed, there has been no further talk of a negotiated peace deal or a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy.

There was also an interesting snippet on television where Jane Fraser the CEO of Citigroup said that the sanctions on Russia are designed to cut off Russia from the Global Financial System as well as Global Supply Chains. Add the weak Russian performance on the battlefield and it is a foregone conclusion that the Russia that emerges from this conflict will be a significantly weakened country. It's only remaining ace in the hole are it's 5000 nuclear warheads and does Putin want to commit global harakiri?

Biden's Russia-Ukraine war mission creep is an alarmingly slippery slope
Reports that the United States is actively helping Ukraine kill Russian generals highlight how America’s goals in Ukraine are expanding — with potentially devastating consequences.
When Russia first embarked on its illegal invasion of Ukraine, America’s response was prudent and limited. On March 4, less than two weeks after the invasion, Secretary of State Antony Blinken defined American objectives as helping defend Ukraine and imposing a cost on Russia through sanctions, while keeping the door to diplomacy open and welcoming a cease-fire. Three weeks later, Biden added that if these objectives could be sustained until the end of the year, Russian President Vladimir Putin would be stopped. To Biden’s credit, his administration resisted early and potentially devastating calls for escalatory measures such as imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

But as it became increasingly clear that Russia’s military was failing on the battlefield and accounts of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians multiplied, it seems either the administration’s message control began to disintegrate or the goal started to change. (Or both.) The stated objectives simultaneously became more expansive and less precise.

From Biden’s hints at regime change on March 26 (“For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power”) to White House press secretary Jen Psaki saying the U.S. was seeking Russia’s strategic defeat on April 20, to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin declaring that the U.S. goal is to “see Russia weakened” and punished in order to deprive it of the ability to invade other countries, the administration’s shifting stances have all the hallmarks of mission creep.
Shifting toward “weakening Russia” rather than “defending Ukraine” is particularly problematic. Unlike other leaks or announcements, the White House has done little to walk this one back. And the former Secretary-General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen has both confirmed and endorsed the shift.
Because when has Russia been weakened enough? Once it no longer can invade its neighbors? While preventing countries from invading their neighbors is a laudable goal, doing so by defanging a country with 140 million people and 6,000 nuclear weapons will not be achieved easily, quickly, or through economic sanctions and Ukrainian military prowess alone. At some point, it appears inevitable that achieving such a goal will require more direct American military involvement — which in turn, may risk nuclear war.

This shift also gives the impression that Ukraine is little more than a pawn in a geo-strategic contest between the United States and Russia, an impression many observers worldwide no doubt already hold, right or wrong.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

This is quite strange.

They seem to be calculating that Russia no longer has the ability to adapt to the battlefield lessons or even having full mobilisation of human resource and industrial resources needed to achieve its objectives on the battlefield over the next few months to years.

When i contrast this with US achievements over the last 20 years. I am not reassured that the US has actually been able to calculate all the variables to the equation.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Anujan »

Domestic political compulsions, perhaps causing Biden administration to over correct?

If US wanted to give a bloody nose to the Russians while helping Ukraine, they could have done it quietly, supplying intelligence and arms to Ukraine, and imposing economic sanctions on Russia

Biden administration wants to publicly declare expansive goals. "Weakening Russia", "Regime Change" ityadi.

I think this is because they want the US public to forget the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. Which was truly awful. Lots of equipment left behind, Amarullah Saleh saying that the Chinese have practically taken over Bagram and are inspecting all the stuff left behind there. Biden needs a win, and is probably over correcting.

Leaking that US explicitly targeted top generals is insane.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cain Marko »

Anujan wrote:Leaking that US explicitly targeted top generals is insane.
I'm just wondering if Putin won't announce something on victory Day to escalate things. Maybe full-scale declaration of war, and no more "speciall ops"?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

One of consequences of Ukr tussle is that China is benefiting tremendously. China will continue to deepen cooperation with Russia on military technology, energy and space. The value of imports from Russia was US$8.89 billion in April, up 56.6 per cent from a year earlier and 13.3 per cent above March. China attaches great importance to cooperation in this field and will work together with the Russian side to promote military-technical cooperation between the two countries to a higher level and a broader field," Zhang Hanhui, China's ambassador to Russia said. Zhang also described as "extensive and fruitful" the cooperation on lunar and deep space exploration, human space flight, satellite navigation, earth observation, space technology and applications. "China will continue to support the further expansion of local currency settlements in bilateral trade, investment and credit, and give full play to the role of infrastructure organisations and financial institutions in both countries, including the Russian renminbi business clearing bank, to serve and ensure the steady development of bilateral trade," Zhang was quoted.

// conclusion: more technology transfer from Russia to China in every sphere including military. Bilateral trade in local currency - stable trade that they hoped would reach US$200 billion by 2024.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vera_k »

What is this is really a US-China war with Ukraine as the proxy for USA and Russia as the proxy for China. Does that compute as to why neither side is backing down?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

From a telegram channel:

President Putin's speech on Red Square on Victory Day, summary:
1. There is no general mobilization.
2. Without declaring war on Ukraine.
3. The main topic of the speech - Special Military Operation.
4. Units that arrived directly from Donbass are participating in the parade.
5. A military operation was absolutely inevitable. Better now than later. It would be worse later.
6. The main goal is to protect Russia from inevitable future aggression.
7. The main goal is now Donbass.
8. The main enemies are the neo-Nazis, NATO and the United States.
9. Very contemptuous of American vassals who must constantly lie.
10. The situation of Western countries is immoral. And Russia's position is firmly moral.
11. Nothing about Ukraine, as if it does not exist.
12. The Ukrainian government is in no way mentioned. They were not even mentioned as terrorists.
13. Putin is in excellent physical and mental shape.
14. There is a great confidence of the people in the correctness of the procedures.
15. Decree signed. The Russian state, as its special task, takes under the protection of the children of those who died for our Motherland, defending Donbas.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Kati »

A more sobering assessment .... from Kanada:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlTKvrPV3F4
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

vera_k wrote:What is this is really a US-China war with Ukraine as the proxy for USA and Russia as the proxy for China. Does that compute as to why neither side is backing down?
The US-China tussle is forthcoming but the real tussle is between US-Russia and is an extension of the previous US-USSR tussle. In terms of military, Russia especially with Nukes, is somewhat on par with the US, but the US wants to degrade this further and make sure there is no threat to it militarily. This is not going to happen since Nukes are involved. All one can hope is they continue to acknowledge each other and don't get dragged into the inevitable nuclear armageddon. Currently Ukr is the sacrificial lamb. That is how it happened elsewhere.

The US-China tussle is not what it seems. There is deep inter-dependency built-in economically, one is the market, the other is the supplier. One is invested in all manufacturing clout within China (the companies are owned by US, with an investment arm in China to manage things) and China in turn invests the excess money into US govt bonds to the tune of $3T. This IMO make them on 1 team. Militarily, China is trying to add volume and flex its muscle but in terms of quality/on par it is lagging behind. Hence the cozying up to Russia. China wants to lead in US-China relationship, whereas US wants it to be the other way about. How this will settle depends on a lot of factors.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Kati »

More on the latest ... From the Uki side: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7VtZ7iRvjU
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

vera_k wrote:What is this is really a US-China war with Ukraine as the proxy for USA and Russia as the proxy for China. Does that compute as to why neither side is backing down?
I don't believe that Russia is a proxy for PRC.

The problem is the post cold war settlement in Europe and the fact it was fundamentally unfair to Russia and the way they had seen themselves over the past few centuries.

At that point in time they lacked the energies to contest the settlement.

Once they started to put own house in order. They started asking for change in the status quo. Gorbachev in a meeting with US congressmen asked about where the US was going with eastward NATO expansion. This was back in 97. When Russia was still too week to do anything about it.


The funny thing is that the current US president was also aware of Russian feeling arround that time and was was actively goading the Russians. Because the Russians had no options available to them in the late 90.

Arround the same time William Burns the current CIA chief was based as a diplomat in Moscow. He sent a memo back to Washington that any invitation from NATO to Ukraine to join NATO will be responded with negativity by the entire Russian political class across the political spectrum.

He wrote the same again in 2008. Yet Textmati, ignoring this advice invited both Ukraine and Georgia to NATO.

Russian invasion of Georgia came later in the same year.

Ukraine is too well known since 2014. I don't have to explain that.

The cold hard fact is that once the Russians developed the capacity to contest the post 91 settlement. They were going to ask for a new settlement. They had been asking for it since 2007. The US was not obliging the Russians.

In this the Ukrainians jumped in eagerly demonstrating that they will fight Russians to the last Ukrainian.

US in its stupidity leapt on the chance. Without understanding that PRC had arrived at the scene and continued antagonism with Russia will solve the PRC problems of sourcing hydrocarbons and rare earths.

The US if it had any brains would have tried to get a neutral Russia against PRC. But it didn't.

Perhaps because of the Russia gate hysteria stoked by the Clinton campaign. The impeachment of Trump over Ukrainian phone call set path to this war in stone.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

What I am saying is that PRC will win regardless of what the actual result of the war is going to be.

The only way to avoid a PRC win is for the European core nations to grow a pair and tell both the US, Poland and Ukraine to shut up and learn to live with Russia.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chetak »

The goras should put this in their pipes and smoke it

Despite demonizing Modi globally, his popularity belies their fondest wishes and beggars their understanding of a resurgent India


Image
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:From a telegram channel:

President Putin's speech on Red Square on Victory Day, summary:
Having seen clips of Victory day across Russia and compared to previous years, I think there was a genuine feeling of patriotism from the
people. Victory day is big in Russia and people don't fake emotions. No signs of the govt being unpopular and seems to be genuine pride in the
armed forces. Of course, Western media will fine one person in a thousand who will `wonder why we invaded Ukraine' etc.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by hanumadu »

Deans wrote:
Cyrano wrote:From a telegram channel:

President Putin's speech on Red Square on Victory Day, summary:
Having seen clips of Victory day across Russia and compared to previous years, I think there was a genuine feeling of patriotism from the
people. Victory day is big in Russia and people don't fake emotions. No signs of the govt being unpopular and seems to be genuine pride in the
armed forces. Of course, Western media will fine one person in a thousand who will `wonder why we invaded Ukraine' etc.
Most of the world other than NATO/white countries feel Russia has been wronged. Russians must be feeling much more.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Popasnya has fallen into Russian control. I'm expecting a slow but inexorable domino effect in the Donbass theatre. Those rejoicing at AFU's advances around Kharkiv should remember that the gains are in their own territory so not exactly gains, plus they are just advancing as RA tactically retreats so they aren't causing any losses to RA, and most importantly they are being led away from Donbass where their buddies are being encircled! When that happens, these guys advancing towards Russian border can be trapped as well.

Oh well, if you are a Ukr supporter you need to clutch at any straw these days.

Russia will lose only. :(( :(( :((
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

The irrational statements, absurd justifications and Russophobic behaviour put on display by leaders across Europe on the occasion of May 9th was unbelievable.

The wide spread inversion of history to paint Russia as the real evil of WW2 which was defeated then and has returned now and must be defeated again is being pushed as the dominant narrative.

European people going along like sheep in stupor makes me sad and pessimistic about Europe's future.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/d ... 220510.htm
Ukraine: 'India remained cold-blooded and rational'
ARCHANA MASIH, May 10, 2022
'As long as we have such partners, Russia cannot be isolated.'

"The Western governments not only froze Russian national reserves, but launched a real witch hunt, seeking and arresting Russian private assets all over the world," says Dr Dmitri Novikov, associate professor and deputy head of the School of International Relations at the National Research University - Higher School of Economics, Moscow.
"Let's try to image a situation, that in case of conflict with Pakistan, the USA and European States start to arrest assets and property of Indian business. That is why this situation is abnormal and concerning for all global business," Dr Novikov tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih in a detailed interview assessing 75 days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The first of a two-part must read interview.
.....
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ramana »

Read about Blitzkrieg and Prussian doctrine and how it does not apply to Ukraine SMO.

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status ... o6RqA&s=19
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

JPMorgan says Russia's economy is stronger than expected and will only suffer a shallow recession despite sanctions

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ble-2022-5

May 10, 2022
The Russian economy has so far fared better than expected under tough sanctions and is likely to suffer only a shallow — although drawn-out — recession, according to JPMorgan.

// there goes kaput all the sanctimonious Sanctions.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by IndraD »

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

X posting from mil forum

France and Germany are throwing in the towel for their neoNazi fighter who is getting clobbered in the ring by a bear. Watch the Macron - Scholtz presser today, better still if you get the transcript. What they have said and what they have stopped saying tells it all.
I expect Brtishits and V Nuland to burn phones and avgaz to drag the fight one more round coz their battered fighter is not yet totally dead. For all the drugs they pumped into him, he can surely last a bit longer and bring down the bear?

Sorry gents there is no more combat tactics to discuss. Coz what's happening in Ukraine is not combat but a grotesque tragedy. A country has been used worse than a door mat and the west tricked them into it and they jumped in willingly and now that they lost, the'll get blamed for being neoNazis and thrown into the dustbin. The last part struck me just now and it's so utterly hedious. Guess who'll make peace with these brainwashed like a sooside bomber Ukranians and help them pick up and rebuild? Russia.

The west will pay for this Karma...
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

AUKUS is really biting now and France is getting back at them. Germany is of course on the receiving end - gas and oil supply. Germans and Russians have traditionally been rather pally with each other, I know many Germans who work in Russia proper and of course Putin is fluent in German. Now that Germany wants to go it alone with their own defense force (100B Euro budget), it makes sense that they want to live with the Bear next door. All the cracks in elaborate coalitions are being laid bare for everyone to notice. And Indians believe that the US will side India in the India-China tussle and so the Quad, please!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

We need to keep the Quad pretense up and get to know the functioning of other forces intimately in the name of "interoperability". Might come useful in the next decade in entirely unexpected ways.

The only way to get better in the global geopolitical game is to keep playing it, without malice, without overreach and constantly keep learning and making friends big and small while trusting no one.

Quad is but a small piece of that.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vijayk »

Cyrano wrote:X posting from mil forum

France and Germany are throwing in the towel for their neoNazi fighter who is getting clobbered in the ring by a bear. Watch the Macron - Scholtz presser today, better still if you get the transcript. What they have said and what they have stopped saying tells it all.
I expect Brtishits and V Nuland to burn phones and avgaz to drag the fight one more round coz their battered fighter is not yet totally dead. For all the drugs they pumped into him, he can surely last a bit longer and bring down the bear?

Sorry gents there is no more combat tactics to discuss. Coz what's happening in Ukraine is not combat but a grotesque tragedy. A country has been used worse than a door mat and the west tricked them into it and they jumped in willingly and now that they lost, the'll get blamed for being neoNazis and thrown into the dustbin. The last part struck me just now and it's so utterly hedious. Guess who'll make peace with these brainwashed like a sooside bomber Ukranians and help them pick up and rebuild? Russia.

The west will pay for this Karma...
Are you saying Russia is not defeated and Zelensky not flying in fighter planes and singlehandedly shooting down Russian war planes? But how can all Wapo/NYT/CNN/google can be so wrong?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Actually I haven't really watched US news media since Biden took over. Wasn't intentional but somehow my interest and credibility of many things American just fell off the deep end. I realised this when the Ukraine war started. And I then understood why. My subconscious had already started factoring the US as a decadent dying Empire that will only thrash uncontrollably for some time as it goes down. The events in the 80 odd days that followed proved to me beyond doubt that that's exactly what is happening. I've consciously looked at Europe which I made my home as well, and what I see here is depressing and heading towards revolting.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

Cyrano wrote:get to know the functioning of other forces intimately in the name of "interoperability"
Goes both ways, they get to know India's capability on an intimate basis. As an aside, recognize that there are enough leakages from babus and others from India to these nations by other means.

The Quad engagements produce a lulling effect and a cozying up to host nations with deep interpersonal relationship. A false ethos is shaped. India's fighting force should be strictly concentrating on the "fighting" aspect and when it comes to the real fracas, all alliances will magically disappear at the last moment citing difficulties and the usual "resolve differences by diplomacy" tripe.

My strong sense of rational thinking tells me that both the US and China are really one team, they pretend in public to have differences, there is much internal talk on G2 behind the scenes and as example, even kungflu origins was whitewashed by the US. India is being led on a "wild goose chase" by the US using the Quad as a pretext.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ks_sachin »

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chanakyaa »

bala wrote:JPMorgan says Russia's economy is stronger than expected and will only suffer a shallow recession despite sanctions

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ble-2022-5

// there goes kaput all the sanctimonious Sanctions.
Bala sir, after 11 weeks of war, I seriously doubt if the sanctions have fully shown its effect, to draw any conclusions. May be in certain areas, but not in all (important) areas. Successful functioning/running of a modern day economy/country needs "computers", which can ONLY function with "microprocessor/chips" and "software" created by American companies. Period. Chinese may be able to produce mobile phone chips, but not computer chips. May be the high tech embargo on Chen was done with some planning, not sure. We are not in 1940s. Banking, defense, mobile towers, routers for internet, day-to-day life needs microprocessor chips & software, an area in which the world is seriously addicted to and hopelessly dependent on. I'm sure the they have thought through this. Question is what leverages are in place (other than turning off oil/gas or going nooklear) to minimize digital ostracism? If eu goes alternate suppliers, middle yeast may lighten up again. You don't pick up this level fight without thinking thru these issues. And, The economic/tech war hasn't even begun.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

Wow, this cannot be more clearer...

The chief executive of Volkswagen, Herbert Diess, has called for a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine so that sanctions can be lifted to avoid damaging the German economy. Herbert Diess said that Brussels should be pushing for a peace deal so that free trade can resume to protect the European Union's commercial interests. Mr Diess said: “I think we should do the utmost to really stop this war and get back to negotiations and get back to trying to open up the world again.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volkswag ... 07028.html
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

microprocessor chips & software
All perceived advantages in these areas are disappearing quite fast. India for example is making its own microprocessor (Open ARM) IIT-M, and, of course, in software it is a champ. BTW proprietary stuff churned out by companies like Apple & MickySoft are what consumers in the market place crave. Businesses usually run on Linux based systems and yes the good ole mainframe computers from IBM. Recently, GM opted for linux systems to upgrade their Electric vehicle software like Tesla does for its vehicles. India's AADHAR system is run on HBase (apache open source software). Getting a semiconductor FAB is critical, you don't need quite the bleeding edge to make commercial stuff that works ( good enough is not the enemy of the best). Just saying, that Russia outsources this stuff to India. What can the US do? Shut down the back offices in India and bring their systems to a screeching halt?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Aditya_V »

Bala it is best India tries to be under the radar, US does not outsource its defense equipment related software, like FBW of F22 and F35 to India, it is mostly Banking and Insurance with Servers for this data in USA.

So at this point while we quietly work , we are not in a position to show the middle finger to US/ UK. I am sure.witha huge land Border, Chinese will somehow ship the chips the Russians need.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

NATO has been designed to weaponise (Eastern) Europe against Russia.
QUAD has been created to try and weaponise India against China.
AUKUS has been created to weaponise Australia against China.

India will draw its lessons from Ukraine's experience and stay vigilant as long as its a member of QUAD and milk it FWIW.
Australia won't do the same in AUKUS, blinded by racial affinity and common Anglo-Saxon heritage.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Manish_P »

Cyrano wrote:NATO has been designed to weaponise (Eastern) Europe against Russia.
QUAD has been created to try and weaponise India against China.
AUKUS has been created to weaponise Australia against China.

India will draw its lessons from Ukraine's experience and stay vigilant as long as its a member of QUAD and milk it FWIW. ...
Will it be EUUKUS to (re)weaponise Pak against us..
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

Pakistan is already weaponised against India.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Aditya_V »

Now Pakistan is weaponizing against the world.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Rony »

Cyrano wrote:NATO has been designed to weaponise (Eastern) Europe against Russia.
QUAD has been created to try and weaponise India against China.
AUKUS has been created to weaponise Australia against China.

India will draw its lessons from Ukraine's experience and stay vigilant as long as its a member of QUAD and milk it FWIW.
Australia won't do the same in AUKUS, blinded by racial affinity and common Anglo-Saxon heritage.
But China will its short term thinking and its middle kingdom itch to rule all of Asia by itself will make sure India will never ditch QUAD, QUAD's internal dynamics not withstanding.
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