Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Cyrano
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Valiant effort Titash ji !
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Cyrano wrote:Happens steadily over time. You'll see it for ex in western media coverage around Modi's visits abroad, has also happened during covid lockdown, china standoff, COPE, CAA, 370... - always in a negative slant, sometimes directly, often written by Indian name handles. Didn't you notice the reaction to recent UN vote abstention?
Digressing slightly off topic, though it is related.

To begin with, Modi was denied a U.S. visa before he became PM. He has come a long way then. The west has realized that it would be impossible to challenge the democratic mandate that Modi has. Our pappu has aligned himself firmly with China. The new pappu on the block (AK) is just opening his auction house and does not have enough to offer yet.

The negative slant about India has preceded Modi by a couple of decades. I believe it has more to do with the pseudo-leftist grip on media and academia in the west (similar to India) arisig from our non-aligned stand in the 60s. I say pseudo-leftist because they are firmly controlled by corporate interests.
Cyrano wrote: If Modi does something big which the west doesnt like, the full smear campaign will be unleashed. Not that it matters beyond a point, especially to Modi.
In terms of impact, this is as big as it gets. The blowback may get more intense but it will be difficult to sustain since Modi is still on the horizon now whereas Putin / Xi have the mark of the new Satan branded on their backs.
The coming together of large countries (Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and India) in not supporting this crazy conflict has surprised many. While the west may want to bring down them one by one, they are also concerned about topics they can coagulate on.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

The coming together of large countries (Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and India) in not supporting this crazy conflict has surprised many. While the west may want to bring down them one by one, they are also concerned about topics they can coagulate on.
True, the viciousness of the sanctions orgy surprised many as well. Part of me thinks EU countries were tricked into it by UK & US using Ursula, Scholz and Borrell who I'm inclined to think now are their stooges.

I'm seeing the UK & US wanting to turn the world into a Bucha street littered with Ukraine, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania, France....and on to India some time in the future. I don't buy this sabre rattling against China, could be a smoke screen.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by JE Menon »

>>Part of me thinks EU countries were tricked into it by UK & US

All of me is beginning to be convinced of this
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Cyrano wrote: True, the viciousness of the sanctions orgy surprised many as well. Part of me thinks EU countries were tricked into it by UK & US using Ursula, Scholz and Borrell who I'm inclined to think now are their stooges.

I'm seeing the UK & US wanting to turn the world into a Bucha street littered with Ukraine, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania, France....and on to India some time in the future. I don't buy this sabre rattling against China, could be a smoke screen.
I would not put the UK and US together. The US firmly sees the UK as the poodle across the pond.

The US sees China as the next big geo strategic competitor to be vanquished in its pursuit of a unipolar world; it already sees Russia as a has-been. After its shameful withdrawal from Afghanistan which cannot be hidden after the world saw people falling off air planes, it needs a Ukraine for Russia to dull its own scars, to drown its sorrows. Zelenskyy is stupid enough or evilly smart to oblige.

Note the recent focus on the business end of the war - talking about $5B monthly deficits, begging for crowd funding etc
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Najunamar »

I expect the Western media to step up the Goebbelsian level propagandu war on both Putin and Modi - I thought they will wait till the drubbing in November but looks like they've thrown the towel on any hope of saying "all is well" to the mango abduls in US. The attempt to bring war crimes charges on Russia by the biggest abuser of human rights in the planet (US) is only the latest in a series of bizarre distractions. Fully expect them to activate the Shekar Dhuppatta type trolls, rNDTV bribed stooges in a barrage of articles - saw an analysis saying sentiment in Asian (Indian, Chinese/other) twitter/Social media leaning towards Russia and has to be controlled. Don't feed the trolls either Western or of Desi vintage.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by hanumadu »

JE Menon wrote:>>Part of me thinks EU countries were tricked into it by UK & US

All of me is beginning to be convinced of this
I was thinking Europe led the US down the garden path and now refusing to go all in on it. EU is too strong to be tricked or not to back out even if it got tricked. This could be revenge for what Trump did to Europe.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Jay »

hanumadu wrote:
Allright boss, have it your way. Western media has been a paragon of objective reporting on ukraine war.
Are yaar, there's nothing like "objective reporting" in any media, period. You take what they give, apply your own filters to filter out the spin and make a call. Some ground facts remain the same and that's what we need to base the conclusions on.

Fact is, there are no more UKR fighters left in Azov steel plant and no one will deny that. Now, one call's it a surrender, retreat, or rout depends on the biases we have.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

I think the US exposed itself too much unthinkingly or uncaringly as a mindless bully and generated a level of mistrust that will be very hard if not impossible to remedy.

Lesser nations like a Pakistan will openly demand more from a richer fellow criminal to co-operate, greater nations like a France will need lot more convincing and stop-loss measures to co-operate in any manner if at all. Macron didn't take Biden's call immly after reelection, the relations are glacial. He is already trying to get EU to change course.

A Russia which survives the current attack and emerges stronger will mean that the US has irreversibly entered "Empire decline" phase.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

Cyrano wrote:Good post Bala ji!
Merits reading a few times to get its full import.
Thanks Cyrano ji. Enjoy your posts very much.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

hanumadu wrote:
JE Menon wrote:>>Part of me thinks EU countries were tricked into it by UK & US

All of me is beginning to be convinced of this
I was thinking Europe led the US down the garden path and now refusing to go all in on it. EU is too strong to be tricked or not to back out even if it got tricked. This could be revenge for what Trump did to Europe.
EU is too much of a chaotic system and basket of crabs to take initiative and follow through. Country level rejects get bumped up to EU posts administrative or political.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

Another point that I want to emphasize is the China factor and the immense benefits they are gaining in this conflict. Though China and US are at odds with one another, they are essentially one entity as far as economics is concerned (which IMO is the main plank on which dominance is based upon). One makes things, the other consumes them and sells them worldwide (with brands controlled by them). There is also a tacit cooperation going on behind the scenes. There is cooperation in the bio-warfare area, kungflu is an example. During Clinton era, rocket technology was shared. Their current C919 aircraft has engines (CFM Leap-1C) from GE which the Chinese are trying to reverse engineer. The Chinese espionage network is merrily stealing things from the US and there is payoff made to the Deep state actors behind the scenes. There will be some well publicized shenanigans for general consumption and confusion.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

EU and NATO story is a tenuous bucket. For a long time, EU played along with the US picking up the majority tab for the expense. Then Trump Administration asked them to pay a fair share, which did not go well with members. Now they are back to the old times. It costs serious money to station divisions of soldiers for defence. France is a little skeptical about AUKUS (Macron is also seen talking to Putin periodically) and Germany has declared that it will build its own protection force for $100B Euros. Effectively, the weak Euro nations want to get under the shield of NATO and feel "safe". Nordic nations like Sweden and Finland will be targeted with nukes from Russia. How long will this charade last. Meanwhile the US Taxpayer is once again shafted.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by V_Raman »

this whole US taxpayer is getting shafted does not make sense. US gets to be the world leader and they can print infinite money to hold up their economy and citizens. that is the power they have. US still is one of the lowest taxed countries in the world. Citizens of USA have it good due to their position in the world.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by eklavya »

Retired Russian Colonel speaking on Russian TV channel:

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by V_Raman »

Too much FUD spread by western media. Biden-007 is the right analogy. USA has been drawn into a trap here by EU.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by arshyam »

I find it funny that some posters post like they are personally vested in Ukraine winning. Wonder why?

I don't post much on this thread, though I have been a regular lurker. While I don't have a dog in this conflict (why would I, sitting in far away India?), I do have some thoughts on how the outcomes would help us (India). Put it simply, Ukraine prevailing and Russia retreating into a shell is not in our interest. I'll explain why:

What is India's grand strategy? How do we see ourselves in this world? While the answers are many, as usual, GoI's actions over the past few decades (not just NDA-1/2) have shown one common thread running through our policies - that of strategic independence. We see ourselves as an eventual big pole in this part of the world, but are happy to co-exist with other big poles in other parts. So, while there is no narrative of an "Indian exceptionalism", there is no "keep your head down and bow to the next big goon" either. Our civilisational foundation is based on dharma, which, even if not articulated explicitly in our constitution, we follow when dealing with the rest of the world. Hence the aim of only being one among many poles in the world and no pretensions of world dominance, but at the same time, no shying away from preserving our core values and interests. This, when coupled with our colonial experience that destroyed our economy, caused rampant poverty and generally brought our civilisation to her knees, has shaped our world view as a mix of self-confidence (the Nixonistas called it arrogance), self-doubt, and some amount of mistrust of external actors. Throw in some self-flagellation by some individual entities, our end appearance looks a bit confused to the rest of the world. But our government, in general has aimed at the same goal through the decades.

Becoming this pole in our own right means being strategically independent in most, if not all areas, but that is easier said than done. Our industry still is catching up, and so is our technological development. In the meantime, we have to keep fighting fires in our periphery that are started by interests vested against us. Some fires are internal as well. So there are any number of distractions for us as a country, while we bring our vast populace out of poverty and offer them a meaningful quality of life.

Because of these challenges, we have to prioritize our social, defence, R&D and other investments. We can perhaps buy all technology till our coffers are exhausted, but then we can forget being independent down the line. So we do invest some resources into tech development, while purchasing what is available off the shelf. At the same time, for some tech that is not available off the shelf, yet is important for our security, we don't have the know how or the resources to develop ourselves. Nothing wrong with this situation, we cannot straightaway be competent in everything right off the bat. So while some tech takes time, we have to obtain the tech from someone who is willing to share/sell it to us. In summary, our tech efforts are a mix of self-development, outright purchases, and some stop-gap purchases of high-end tech that someone is willing to sell to us.

Given these realities, it is in our interest that the tech is available to us in a manner that does not stop our development. At least, to the extent possible. That means no conditions on using the tech we buy, and if possible, some sharing of the know-how and know-why. So whoever is inclined toward the latter, we'll deal with. While we'll never deal with, or avoid where possible, tech sources that seek to stop our investments into our own tech efforts. Remember, strategic independence is our goal. So, our engagement with the world will happen through this prism.

Apart from our own tech efforts, we also have another vested stake in the way the world is organized. The power equations - these need to be shaped (from our PoV) in a way that would allow us to grow into an independent strategic pole as quickly and painlessly as possible. So a dominant single power is not in our interest, since that power will never countenance any challenge, and exercise its dominance to keep tripping us on our way to growth. So we'd prefer a world with multiple existing poles with a reasonable balance of power, as that would give us enough strategic room to grow. It would allow us to attain tech development in line with the 3 approaches I summarized earlier. A dominant power will only want to sell completed tech as a black box in order to preserve their dominance.

One can argue that other existing poles will play the same game with completed tech. True, it's in every existing pole's interest to not allow another to grow up. But these multiple poles, due to the power equations between them, will have enough gaps for us to operate and play one against the other. So, while not easy, there is a better chance of achieving our aims in this situation when compared to a single pre-eminent entity that controls everything. Only an all out war would change the equations then, and that is something no sane country would want, least of all, us.

So, given the above views, which outcomes should we, as Indians interested in "Bharat rakshak", prefer? I think the writing is on the wall, hence my original question of "some posters post like they are personally vested in Ukraine winning. Wonder why?".
Last edited by arshyam on 18 May 2022 07:58, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by arshyam »

To add to the above, I'm re-sharing an earlier reply of mine in the US relations thread that I think is relevant here, while we lose ourselves focusing on tactics of the current war and end up fighting among ourselves. The strategic outcome is much clearer, and will have a bigger impact on our ability to achieve our long term goal of being an independent pole.

viewtopic.php?p=2537092#p2537092
<snip>what we have is an open encouragement of China and Russia forming a quasi-alliance against the west - Russia's almost unlimited energy supplies and China's huge (yes, growing older) domestic market plus export surplus can combine to offer an alternative to the US led order. This is the US' war to lose, and they have started doing so, despite all the propaganda we keep hearing, and new cold war is going to begin. I mean, think about it - China can freely form such an alliance, and the US will be powerless to stop it due to a compromised establishment and economic dependence. So who is the victor?

What is India's take here? We have no reason now to cast our lot with the west, as it is only a matter of time before the current order becomes weak. Clearly, the US is on the decline in geopolitical terms - German re-arming will only hasten that process. Watch for Japan's action next**. Once the US' appetite for military action goes, other aspects will slowly follow. As Mao famously said, "power flows from the barrel of the gun". But that does not mean that we should cast our lot with China as well, as that would be out-rightly inimical to us. We should understand that we are meant to chart our own course and continue to do so. SWIFT? We have UPI and IMPS, and the India stack to ensure accessibility. Culture and civilizational values - who has more than us? Healthcare and public goods? We have demonstrated our heft through the world's largest vaccination drive entirely built upon Indian foundations. Technology? Admittedly, a work in progress, but we had loads of it in the past when our society was truly free and innovative - we have to rediscover that mojo and work toward it. Energy? We have an abundance of solar energy throughout the year, and favourable geography w.r.t. the gulf states as long as we have to import oil. Military - we have our own detergents and a formidable Naval and Space tech to protect our interests well beyond our shores, and that capability is only getting better.

So, in the words of the Gurudev, India will always ekla cholo re, and this is something our establishment seems to have internalized. Good going in the long run, but expect some short-term pinpricks as a fallout of the current shifts.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Right arshyam ji, but tech is just one (important) part of our need for strategic independence.

As to
"some posters post like they are personally vested in Ukraine winning. Wonder why?".
Looks like WokeVirus got them, despite all the jabs from BRF.
For those ppl, let me say this:
To preach, vent, react - go to SM. To think, get challenged, learn - come to BRF.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Roop »

Cyrano wrote:A Russia which survives the current attack and emerges stronger will mean that the US has irreversibly entered "Empire decline" phase.
Good points. I think they are both likely to become true -- i.e. Russia will survive and become stronger, and the US will enter the "irreversible decline of empire" phase.

And another thing: NATO is not a defensive alliance (or at least, it hasn't been one for the last 30 years or so, i.e. after the collapse of the Soviet Union). NATO these days is an aggressive war-mongering group constantly looking around for fights to start in order to "keep NATO relevant", i.e. the alliance has to be kept relevant solely in order to cause trouble and stay relevant for the next war.

Finally, if I may give you and the others some unsolicited advice, just ignore that pesky little troll venkat_r and his prancing around like a fairy queen on stage.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chetak »

frustration is setting in, things are spinning out of control of the US and they have almost become mere bystanders


US hopes India would 'reconsider' its decision to ban wheat exports


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 610162.cms
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by JE Menon »

>>I think the US exposed itself too much unthinkingly or uncaringly as a mindless bully and generated a level of mistrust that will be very hard if not impossible to remedy.

This is as near a certainty as any there is.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by kit »

JE Menon wrote:>>Part of me thinks EU countries were tricked into it by UK & US

All of me is beginning to be convinced of this
+101

They dug themselves in to a hole and found thats the wrong hole and desperately trying to convince themselves that is the right one :((


In the meantime the ones with the cool head stand away from it all (and so far that's one country)
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by JE Menon »

Worse, they are trying to convince everyone else that it is the right one too... doubling down on a f**k up.

Yes, one country has balanced the crap out of it. Note that there are few opeds on the subject critical of the government anymore. Partly it is gentle revenue related pressure, no doubt, but the other part is there is nothing to say - they will be creamed and made to look like idiots on social media.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

chetak wrote:frustration is setting in, things are spinning out of control of the US and they have almost become mere bystanders


US hopes India would 'reconsider' its decision to ban wheat exports


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 610162.cms
It's exactly attitudes like this that will attract more and more ridicule from the Non-international community. US takes responsibility to prevent global hunger and fulfills it by pressuring India to go hungry.

Stupid is as US does.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Baikul »

The western media treatment of the surrender at Mariupol (calling it an evacuation etc) was already discussed here. As someone with some media experience, I found this BBC link highly amusing; in particular the the viewer comments which hilariously criticise the BBC’s choice of words to describe what happened.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EKakNiMb8E8
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cain Marko »

Cyrano wrote: Macron didn't take Biden's call immly after reelection, the relations are glacial. He is already trying to get EU to change course.
:eek: Thats a big, cold shoulder. If not a straight up middle finger. Little Napoleon is feeling his oats? BTW any link for this. First the Saudis, now the frogs! Next even TSP/Immy will do something like so.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cain Marko »

Increasingly one gets a feeling that posters have a tendency to view the US as some monolithic enterprise with a singular, focused agenda. I think not. There are enough blocs within it that a powerful country can cultivate for its advantage. Sample the Israelis, Chinese, Saudis or even the TSP. India can play a similar game - align and nurture those blocs that are of mutual interest.
This has nothing to do with Red vs Blue. There are pro/vs blocs on both sides. In general though the centrists and establishment types are the most likely to align with Indian interests. These bigboys are firmly in the pockets of the USMIC as well. If India can seduce the MIC, she can get what she wants.
Notice the unwillingness of the Biden admin to stray too far away from the charted path, often course correcting after loose talk from extreme left component. CAATSA has been put on the backburner quite casually. Wonlee occasional noises, and now the desire to sweeten deals via MilAid. I"m thinking Modi & Co. know this and are cultivating the right types/interests in the US. Namely the MIC. There is no bigger power than this group. And their goods are good - even our armed forces know this. And God knows, India could use some firepower on the high seas in the face of an extremely belligerent and unpredictable China. Moreover, the MIC has every reason to demonize China, quite simply because they can't sell their wares there!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

I fully see your point CM ji,
But I dont think our foreign policy apparatus is big enough or mature enough as yet, to play American blocs against each other. A similar approach is possible wrt EU as well. Hoping we'll get there in the next decade.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Haresh »

Cyrano wrote:Stupid is as US does
You know I often have this debate about the US with people who regard them as angels.

I do like America and Americans, however considering their history of disasters I cannot understand why American foreign policy is regarded as some sort of genious plan.

1/ China

All Americans regard China as a threat.
Who made China what it is ?
America. Nixon & Kissingers brilliant plan.
How has that worked out for them and the world ?

2/ The Vietnam War

They knew in the mid 60's that they could not win.
See the Pentagon Papers

Ho Chi Min was actually writing to the American president at the time stating they had no hostile intent to America.
The letters were not passed on by American diplomats
3-4 million dead Buddhists/pagans 58,000 dead Americans.

How did that work out ?

3/ Pakistan

CENTO/Bangladesh genocide
The Blood Telegrams
Nixon calling Indira Gandhi a "bitch"

How did that work out ?

4/ Central & South America
The Munro Doctrine
Support for blood thirsty dictatorships
El Salvador, Nicaragua, Cuba, Chile, Argentina

5/ The Russian invasion of Afghanistan
Arming the afghan resistance who evolved into the taliban and others
Then abandoning the country.

6/ 9/11
Pakistan being declared a Non NATO Ally
Where was OBL found?
Who was aiding the taliban?

They received assistance from Russia & India, how was that paid back ?

7/ Alienating Russia, after receiving support from them after 9/11

8/ The invasion of Iraq
which only helped Iran
The rise of ISIS
Abandoning Iraq

9/ Destruction of Libya
And the resultant terror attacks in Europe
which led to mass islamic migration to Europe

10/Syria
which led to mass islamic migration to Europe
And the resultant terror attacks in Europe

11/And now the entire Ukraine situation.

The entire American foreign policy establishment come across as imbeciles.

What idiots.
They need to take a good look at themselves
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vimal »

chetak wrote:frustration is setting in, things are spinning out of control of the US and they have almost become mere bystanders


US hopes India would 'reconsider' its decision to ban wheat exports


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 610162.cms
They are literally begging in front of Saudis, Chinese and every other nation at this point. I don't see any headlines about how Saudis are drubbing their ambassadors.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Haresh wrote:You know I often have this debate about the US with people who regard them as angels.

I do like America and Americans, however considering their history of disasters I cannot understand why American foreign policy is regarded as some sort of genious plan.
---
The entire American foreign policy establishment come across as imbeciles.

What idiots.
They need to take a good look at themselves
When a US President get a Nobel Peace Prize after waging wars for 8 years, can you blame them if their world view is upside down?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Vayutuvan »

Obama got a Nobel before waging the wars. :mrgreen: that is the value of a peace Nobel. makes one violent. :rotfl:
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

bala wrote:Thanks Cyrano ji. Enjoy your posts very much.
Thank you Bala ji, same here !
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vijayk »



What do guys think? Is it the ego of a billionaire or any worth in what he says?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ramana »

I am reading his book.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1527958894575857664

The war in Ukraine can only be resolved through "diplomacy", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a domestic television channel on Saturday amid a deadlock in negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.

https://www.barrons.com/news/zelensky-s ... 1653120307
skumar
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Vayutuvan wrote:Obama got a Nobel before waging the wars. :mrgreen: that is the value of a peace Nobel. makes one violent. :rotfl:
I guess you could look at it that way. He received it in his first year as President and it did not have the desired effect as per the a non-voting member of the Nobel Committe. :D

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wor ... l-reveals/

Nobel Committee wanted to give the Peace prize to prevent war while Obama thought he was waging wars for peace.
skumar
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Some of the western media have tried passing off Mariopol as some sort of a modern day Thermopylae.

No version of Thermopylae speaks of the Greeks begging to be evacuated.
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