Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Evicted to where?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by srin »

Credit Suisse report on commodity shortages due to Ukraine conflict.
https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shortur ... 3g1-Vvd1-V

Interesting link between Azovstal steel plant and semiconductor neon shortage. Also, shortage of VLCC (Very large crude carrier) to ship crude even if India buys Russian crude.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Aditya_V »

Video from CNN, what we suspected all along, see 2:20, USA is aiming for 1980's Afghanistan to bleed Russia.
I hope someone has the sense to stop this course, negotiations and Russian withdrawal- this all or nothing game will ultimately lead to a much wider conflict


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Anant »

Is this for real? I only post since he, Putin, ultimately commands the Russian forces. Lots of Indian sources are also citing this.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 78916.html
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

When Russia has not declared this to be a war. Then it makes no difference if Putin has to undergo a surgery or not.

Even if Russia had declared a war. It would still not make any difference if Putin has to undergo a surgery.

Because non neutral Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

Anant wrote:Is this for real? I only post since he, Putin, ultimately commands the Russian forces. Lots of Indian sources are also citing this.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 78916.html
Off the record chat with Russian friends, suggest he has Parkinsons. No info on cancer. Not a topic you can discuss in Russia.

It matters because Putin has centralised far too much power with himself.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by NRao »

https://twitter.com/abunin/status/1521451076154802179
Alexander Bunin abunin wrote: ‼️ Confirmed information that Canadian General Trevor Cadieu was arrested while escaping from the #Azovstal plant in #Mariupol and taken to Moscow

Image

Supposedly was heading a lab that dealt with viruses
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Deans wrote:
Anant wrote:Is this for real? I only post since he, Putin, ultimately commands the Russian forces. Lots of Indian sources are also citing this.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 78916.html
Off the record chat with Russian friends, suggest he has Parkinsons. No info on cancer. Not a topic you can discuss in Russia.

It matters because Putin has centralised far too much power with himself.
Parkinson's is possible given how he carries himself, with right side - arm, fingers, facial expression and gait are quite stiff when you observe closely. Parkinson's is known to manifest like that, along with depression and some mood swings but absolutely no loss of mental faculties or decision making abilities. Symptoms are very well treated with medicines like Levadopa though not cured, a person can have a relatively normal functioning for many years. Then deep brain stimulation is a surgical procedure that works well in advanced stages and has a fairly high success rate, and results are highly satisfactory and durable for many years.
From what I see, assuming that is indeed his diagnosis, his symptoms don't appear advanced enough to warrant urgent surgery, especially when a war is going on. But who knows, I'm surely not his doctor!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Malayappan »

From an OSINT type of source - A take on the impact on the Russian side of the conflict. A Q&A with Clint Ehrlich, whom many may be familiar with - Clint Ehrlich & RWA: The War Dialogues

There are quite a few insights that may be of interest, especially for those on our side looking at these things closely!

In conclusion he observes -
As to how the war might end, that is a very good question. I believe what the Kremlin would have liked best is the “neutral, friendly, independent, antifascist Ukraine” dreamed up by Russian pundits back in 2013 during the Euromaidan protests. Putting some kind of Yanukovych or Medvedchuk type person on the Bankovaya would require a minimal amount of real investment in terms of political, social and economic capital, and would also solve exactly zero of the long-term strategic problems.

Alas, that train has left the station. By now, anything short of securing Donbass + historical Novorossiya will be unambiguously seen as a defeat by the Russian public.
and
Leaving a rump state with no access to the Azov & Black Seas, with no infrastructure or industry and full of political radicals with an astonishingly large supply of weapons is, on the one hand, a permanent danger for Russia and doesn’t solve the “NATO weapons on our borders” problem, but on the other hand it creates a gigantic black hole for the West to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into without accomplishing anything.
FWIW!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by mody »

A video on the 1st month of the Russian 'Special Military Operation '. Quite interesting. Lots of details about the various units involved and the progress of the operation.

https://youtu.be/yBZPE9o2gHU
Last edited by mody on 04 May 2022 15:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chetak »

Image
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

From an OSINT type of source - A take on the impact on the Russian side of the conflict. A Q&A with Clint Ehrlich, whom many may be familiar with - Clint Ehrlich & RWA: The War Dialogues
Thanks for posting this, seems like a realistic assessment at the level of confirmed info we have. As I alluded to in Mil forum Ukr thread, rump state Ukraine actually implies a snake pit that will become a headache for not just Russia but also for Europe, eventually the US too.

The point he made on info war has an additional dimension - soft power projection. SP is the base layer on which international, and to an extent even domestic public opinion can be made or modified. Russia has largely neglected this aspect for several decades now - hasn't looked at its friend China which did a lot more and better despite being a totalitarian state whereas Russia still maintains a semblance of democracy.

For instance, being a desirable place to visit for a business traveler/middle class tourist is a good indicator of soft power projection working well (though not the only one, and that alone can even be misleading). Russia's neglect of self image, and sulky behaviour has slowly eroded its soft power and most people think its still USSR in a slightly less lethal form, and are totally unaware of how well integrated Russia was with several key sectors of the global economy before this invasion started. Being an active and visible player on global issues like HSE, disaster relief, arts, (popular) culture etc would have helped Russia enjoy more genuine support than the support it has now, which is largely based on Anti-American, anti-colonial sentiments of the global south, strategic compulsions of India or domination designs of China.

The battlefield is often not limited to the battlefield.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/abunin/status/1521451076154802179
Alexander Bunin abunin wrote: ‼️ Confirmed information that Canadian General Trevor Cadieu was arrested while escaping from the #Azovstal plant in #Mariupol and taken to Moscow

Image

Supposedly was heading a lab that dealt with viruses
Any chance of him being paraded on RED SQUARE on 8 th May?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Deans wrote:
Anant wrote:Is this for real? I only post since he, Putin, ultimately commands the Russian forces. Lots of Indian sources are also citing this.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 78916.html
Off the record chat with Russian friends, suggest he has Parkinsons. No info on cancer. Not a topic you can discuss in Russia.

It matters because Putin has centralised far too much power with himself.
Yup. and just because your friend is a Russian, he knows Kremlin state secret :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: . How come he could not see visibly frail,shaky, nervous and ghostly figure like Biden. It is a typical CIA misinformation and Indian media is buying at wholesale price.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Why would Russia want to do that? Actually that we are thinking Russia would do something like that is proof of Russia lacking soft power view I posted above.

From available reports, ordinary PoWs are being treated in compliance with Geneva Conventions. Even foreign mercenaries are being treated well, however they are being charged with crimes against D&L republics and will be tried, potentially facing death penalty. A high value capture like that Canadian general will be kept out of public eye and interrogated thoroughly.

The hero of May 9th Victory Day will be the Babushka in eastern Ukraine who refused rations offered by Ukrainian Right Sector soldiers, refused to denigrate Russian soldiers and asked them not to step on USSR flag saying "My parents fought and upheld this flag". Her story went viral and she is a hero in Russia these days.

Image

Her story here: https://youtu.be/D22fJ9ziKcI
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

rsingh wrote:
Deans wrote:
Off the record chat with Russian friends, suggest he has Parkinsons. No info on cancer. Not a topic you can discuss in Russia.
Yup. and just because your friend is a Russian, he knows Kremlin state secret :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: . How come he could not see visibly frail,shaky, nervous and ghostly figure like Biden. It is a typical CIA misinformation and Indian media is buying at wholesale price.
I haven't suggested my friends know Kremlin secrets.
We aren't discussing Biden.

Putin is seen on TV at length, by millions of people in Russia. Unlike India, coverage of Putin includes his conversations at the start of meetings, or during visits (e.g. talking to a school kid, or farmer or factory employees) . Given what they see (Cyrano's post) there is informal speculation on his health. That's because they know through decades of experience that official info on the health of their leader will never be correct.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Dean Sir, this game was played by CIA/KGB and NOW FSB during the cold war and warm war. This propaganda. Simple as that. We are not talking about Biden....why not? Read my last line of last post. Do you think Biden's sudden demise will have no effect on this war.
on the fun side. Moi an avid observer of Kremlin observer. Was in Russia during Perestroika. Have seen Russian mood,nationalism and daily life from a very close quarter for 5 years. My conclusion : Russian Leaders are not same in their look and actions. I call this Law of "Trichological Alternating Continuity " :mrgreen: They come to power alternatively. BALD/HAIRY/BALD/HAIRY.......
After extensive study, research of KGB/ CIA and STASI archives, personal interactions with Russian intelligentia I hammerd out second LAW. It it called Law Trichological behavioural consistency IT rules that bald Russian leaders will be revolutionary and bring fundamental change in Russia. Hairy leaders will be cruel and decisive.
So Two universal Laws about Russian Leadership
1) Law of Trichiological Alternating Continuity
2) Law of Trichiological Behavioural Consistency
For further in-depth knowledge please refer to our absent Lalmulah who is currently trapped in Unequal Consistency Magnetic Resonance Field between Russia and Ukraina ( some where in Donbass).
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Y. Kanan »

I really don't see how this ends without Russia resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or at least some limited use of chemical weapons, even if they're only aim is to secure the Crimea water supply and land bridge to the Donbas. To say nothing of securing the entire Donbas region or even going so far as Odessa! All that is simply fantasy with the conventional military power at Russia's disposal. The massive campaign of arming Ukraine with high tech weapons, plus all the other advantages the Ukrainian side enjoys (numerical superiority, infinite free logistics from NATO, the advantage of fighting on the defense), has ensured that Russia can't advance much further, and will be hard-pressed to retain even their current gains.

They have to use tactical nukes on NATO arms shipments, or localized gas attacks to make advances on the front line, or a combination of the two, if they hope to salvage anything less than humiliating defeat in this war.

I think a lot of people are in denial about this, and are convinced that somehow Russia can pull this off with only conventional forces, or that they'd overthrow Putin before resorting to such insanely risky tactics. But I'm not so sure given that most of Putin's generals are asking to use tactical nukes on the battlefield and are more than willing to fight NATO if necessary.

And meanwhile in the emergent, developing country of India, we're ok with this? Just let the west and the Russians blow each other up? Is there some delusion that this would improve our lives?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by kit »

Y. Kanan wrote:
And meanwhile in the emergent, developing country of India, we're ok with this? Just let the west and the Russians blow each other up? Is there some delusion that this would improve our lives?
What do you think India can or should do ?

The west solution is for India to join them and sanction Russia. Russia wants India to support them

India s current position takes a good stock of geopolitical realities ; everyone knows of western hypocrisy and double standards when it suits them.,

As to the the question of letting each other blow the other up ., what can one do except for sage advice ? India can just watch from the sidelines when it s increasingly clear that there are too many cooks in the game , each doing every bit to prolong the war., till it comes to a situation where one party decides enough is enough., at that point I think India can help . Wars are best won when its not fought but then that point has long gone.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Aap ne ghabrana nahin....
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vijayk »

kit wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:
And meanwhile in the emergent, developing country of India, we're ok with this? Just let the west and the Russians blow each other up? Is there some delusion that this would improve our lives?
What do you think India can or should do ?

The west solution is for India to join them and sanction Russia. Russia wants India to support them

India s current position takes a good stock of geopolitical realities ; everyone knows of western hypocrisy and double standards when it suits them.,

As to the the question of letting each other blow the other up ., what can one do except for sage advice ? India can just watch from the sidelines when it s increasingly clear that there are too many cooks in the game , each doing every bit to prolong the war., till it comes to a situation where one party decides enough is enough., at that point I think India can help . Wars are best won when its not fought but then that point has long gone.
I have an idea ... US/Europe should trade more with Russia and vice versa and resolve disputes peacefully :rotfl:
Last edited by vijayk on 05 May 2022 05:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Jay »

NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/abunin/status/1521451076154802179
Alexander Bunin abunin wrote: ‼️ Confirmed information that Canadian General Trevor Cadieu was arrested while escaping from the #Azovstal plant in #Mariupol and taken to Moscow
Supposedly was heading a lab that dealt with viruses
Fake news about him heading the lab. The real Trevor Cadieu is in deep shit for a totally different set of reasons. He has been in UKR for less than a month.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trevor ... -1.6424787
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Y. Kanan »

India needs to lead a push by several prominent emerging powers (say India + Brazil + S. Africa + Mexico + Indonesia) where we demand the US bloc stop antagonizing the Russian bloc and come up with a partition plan for Ukraine that allows everyone to walk away in peace. Stop this war before Russia is pushed to the brink and deploys WMD. Everybody walks away, Russia remains isolated from the western economy but keeps Donbas region & Crimean land bridge. Everybody declares victory and we don't destroy the planet over what should have been a minor diplomatic affair and never an actual war. The West has been just as irresponsible as Russia - we have to make them stop before it's too late. What leverage do we have? Beyond economic ... maybe none, honestly, but why aren't any of the "unaligned" players even trying to force a peace?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Atmavik »

@Kanan saab that is NAM 2.0 which is more useless than the 1st one. Fortunately Namo is not a foolish or selfish as Nehru to fall into such a trap.

There is hell lot of work to be done at home and no time to waste on such endeavors.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by bala »

There is absolutely no basis to bring in nuclear/chemical weapons into the mix. Both Russia and USA military are circumspect about these weapons and very rational about its potential use. None of this will happen. Getting in the middle of the tussle between a Proxy like Ukr and SuperPower like Russia is not going to work. For all the posturing, threats, sanctions, etc the tussle is still between the proxy nation and Russia, direct confrontation is avoided, Biden has repeatedly refused direct action. Russia is systematically reducing the proxy nation into a non-entity and the timetable is on their own choosing. Calling for hastening, peace, treaty etc is a waste of time. India staying away and periodically saying things like "cessation of hostility" is the right approach, nothing more, nothing less is needed.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by NRao »

Y Kanan wrote: I really don't see how this ends without Russia resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons or ......
From the angle that both the US and Russia have stated that their goal is to "win" this conflict, it is more than likely. When one includes the possibility that NATO could send "advisors", then the likelihood goes even higher - there is a news report that the British SAS is already operating in "Western Ukraine". IF this is conflict is not arrested, and it spirals lower and lower, then the chances increase.

I expect it to spiral down. Slowly. Very slowly
Y Kanan wrote: India needs to lead a push by several prominent emerging powers (say India + Brazil + S. Africa + Mexico + Indonesia) ....
From an Indian PoV, not happening.

Jaishankar, as I had mentioned in an earlier post, has stated in 2019 that India is a pole in a multipolar world order.

So, any other nation can sit at the high table - if they can. India has got her place at that table (IMO) - I just do not see any other nation that can mediate this conflict. (The issue that I cannot resolve is what type of guarantees can India provide if asked to do so - as a mediator)

____________________________________________

I think the Russians are not concerned about the arms being promised to the Ukrainians. The most potent seem to be the 90 M777s that the US has signed on to. The German and French are too small to make a diff and I believe old techs, perhaps upgraded

No matter what, the Russians, IMO, will grind it out. "Cost" is a debatable term between the Russian and NATO PoV.

Russians have started taking out transportation nodes, cutting out 1) any UKR trying to get back to their home, and stopping any farm products from leaving UKR. MENA nations, since they depend on UKR for wheat, etc, are already seeing rapid rise in inflation.

China has nailed down O&G deals. India is in talks. We could see a decline in EU GDP - due to either lack of or more expensive O&G AND a corresponding increase in Indian, Chinese, and even perhaps a few of the SE Asian nations

_____________________________________________


Some data points:

1) Apr 22, 2022 :: Boris Johnson admits 'realistic possibility' that Russia could win the war in Ukraine, and that it may last until the end of 2023

2) May 4, 2022: Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Jay wrote:
NRao wrote:https://twitter.com/abunin/status/1521451076154802179



Supposedly was heading a lab that dealt with viruses
Fake news about him heading the lab. The real Trevor Cadieu is in deep shit for a totally different set of reasons. He has been in UKR for less than a month.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trevor ... -1.6424787
Sir, question is not what was he doing. Was he there and if he is in Russian custody. CBC is as good as BBC. So which part of the news is fake.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by sohamn »

Trevor Cadieu was a sexual predator, wanted in Canada who then fled from Canada and was apparently assisting ukraine military.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Jay »

rsingh wrote: CBC is as good as BBC. So which part of the news is fake.
Suit yourself, singh ji.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Tanaji »

Apparently WHO is thinking of shutting down its offices in Russia over invasion of Ukraine. While they impact of this is next to zero, it seems the West has given up on even having a fig leaf of pretence on neutrality. Everything has been weaponised already and apparently even WHO is now joining the bandwagon.

Next time they come to us about the impartiality of UN, we should keep this in mind.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by prahaar »

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Last edited by prahaar on 06 May 2022 12:45, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chetak »

Image
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Haresh »

Beijing orders ‘stress test’ as fears of Russia-style sanctions mount

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ions-mount
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Tanaji »

What is the locus standi of the Dutch ambassador to UK to comment on the above? Excellent slap down if true.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

The Eurojokers need no locus standii, their perpetual g@@nd me khujli is enough for them to open their orifices and spout cr@p.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

elensly takes Ukraine into global beggars hall of fame, edging out even Pakistan - which is quite a feat.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky- ... -invasion/
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Aditya_V »

Us Channels Admitting that

1) They gave Ukranians info how to kill Russian Generals

2) They told Ukraine where Moskova Location was.







Then they definitely would have most probably been US Harpoons or US weapons which have been doing the damage.

I think the Russians have grossly miscalculated in, I saw footage yesterday to stop the advance on Kiev, The Ukranians opened dams and flooded thier own villages and blew over 300 bridges on route to Kiev. The Ukranians are willing to sacrifice their country to defeat Russia.

I think the Russians then decided its better to withdraw and play a slower attritional warfare, Javelins, stingers, Oil and Food in Ukraine like the Russians are getting used up.

Whoever has more sustaining power here will have the upper hand. Modi is right there will no winners here other than China.

The US I feel it upping the stakes unnecessary and is going to burn itself, it will weaken Russia, it will weaken Europe and large parts of the world but I feel this war is going to have some consequences which no has gamed.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:elensly takes Ukraine into global beggars hall of fame, edging out even Pakistan - which is quite a feat.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky- ... -invasion/
crowd funding ?! ..thats new :mrgreen:
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Vayutuvan »

kit wrote:crowd funding ?! ..thats new :mrgreen:
Are they taking bitcoin as well? That would be another way for those corrupt Ukr politicos to launder their do numberi cash.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 07 May 2022 10:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Jay wrote:
rsingh wrote: CBC is as good as BBC. So which part of the news is fake.
Suit yourself, singh ji.
Was he there or not. Is he in Russian custody or not. Very simple question. Do not play with the words.It has nothing to do with sexual harassment cases. According to CBC and BBC. Russia is a hanging fruit. Ukraina has destroyed most of RU forces. Putin will be disposed off in a coup. Anyway he is sick and about to loose control of the country.
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