Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/0 ... e-ukraine/ Putin has regained the military initiative in Ukraine
Moscow has been making steady territorial gains there and inflicting heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces. President Zelensky admitted last week that up to 100 of his troops are being killed every day in the eastern region. That level of attrition will be severely degrading Ukrainian military morale and fighting strength. And, given what we know about Russian war tactics, it is unlikely they will be attaining anywhere near as many casualties.
In the face of blistering artillery bombardments followed up by tank and infantry attacks, Ukrainian troops have been on the retreat. Sometimes this has involved tactical withdrawal to more sustainable defensive positions, but mostly such moves are made out of necessity. The city of Severodonetsk is on the verge of being stormed. If it is captured alongside another key city, Lysychansk, then much of Luhansk will be under the Kremlin’s auspices. That marks a significant defeat for Ukraine – and the West.
President Zelensky says Russian weaponry outnumbers his own by 20 to one in the region. Little of the promised Nato artillery and ammunition has arrived to redress the balance and most of what they have is out-ranged. The Russian army has reportedly improved its tactics for countering hand-held anti-armour weapons that accounted for so many tank losses earlier in the conflict, and the particularly effective UK-supplied NLAW missiles are now unfortunately in very short supply.
Even “incremental” and “slow” progress by the Russians, as a Pentagon spokesman recently described it, translates over time into significant gains. This reality is made more ominous by the fact that Ukrainian forces have generally struggled to mount large scale counter-offensives despite their Nato weaponry and intelligence. Their strength has been defending ground, while major advances have usually only been made in the face of Russian withdrawal. Earlier hopes of the Ukrainian army driving the Russians back to their borders represented optimism over hard reality
The next stage may be a renewed offensive towards Odesa with the objective of taking the whole of Ukraine’s coastline, linking up with Transnistria and threatening Moldova, an EU membership candidate.
Moscow has been making steady territorial gains there and inflicting heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces. President Zelensky admitted last week that up to 100 of his troops are being killed every day in the eastern region. That level of attrition will be severely degrading Ukrainian military morale and fighting strength. And, given what we know about Russian war tactics, it is unlikely they will be attaining anywhere near as many casualties.
In the face of blistering artillery bombardments followed up by tank and infantry attacks, Ukrainian troops have been on the retreat. Sometimes this has involved tactical withdrawal to more sustainable defensive positions, but mostly such moves are made out of necessity. The city of Severodonetsk is on the verge of being stormed. If it is captured alongside another key city, Lysychansk, then much of Luhansk will be under the Kremlin’s auspices. That marks a significant defeat for Ukraine – and the West.
President Zelensky says Russian weaponry outnumbers his own by 20 to one in the region. Little of the promised Nato artillery and ammunition has arrived to redress the balance and most of what they have is out-ranged. The Russian army has reportedly improved its tactics for countering hand-held anti-armour weapons that accounted for so many tank losses earlier in the conflict, and the particularly effective UK-supplied NLAW missiles are now unfortunately in very short supply.
Even “incremental” and “slow” progress by the Russians, as a Pentagon spokesman recently described it, translates over time into significant gains. This reality is made more ominous by the fact that Ukrainian forces have generally struggled to mount large scale counter-offensives despite their Nato weaponry and intelligence. Their strength has been defending ground, while major advances have usually only been made in the face of Russian withdrawal. Earlier hopes of the Ukrainian army driving the Russians back to their borders represented optimism over hard reality
The next stage may be a renewed offensive towards Odesa with the objective of taking the whole of Ukraine’s coastline, linking up with Transnistria and threatening Moldova, an EU membership candidate.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Mainstream media and the benefits of smelling salts.
Criminal provocation. It’s akin to encouraging a person to jump off a ledge. Abetment of suicide. Well at least some are reconsidering as Ukraine is midair in its plunge.
Criminal provocation. It’s akin to encouraging a person to jump off a ledge. Abetment of suicide. Well at least some are reconsidering as Ukraine is midair in its plunge.
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- BRF Oldie
- Posts: 6095
- Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
There is no shame in surrendering in an unwinnable war and preserving lives.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Good stand by India, unfazed in speaking the truth irrespective of Blinken chairing the "Food Security" call.
On SL, so they need India's sponsorship and endorsement for their begging bowl? Its become an appalling trend to believe the rest of the world owes something to pull dysfunctional countries out of self made disasters. Be it Pakis who have been at it forever, and emulators like Ukr, SL...
On SL, so they need India's sponsorship and endorsement for their begging bowl? Its become an appalling trend to believe the rest of the world owes something to pull dysfunctional countries out of self made disasters. Be it Pakis who have been at it forever, and emulators like Ukr, SL...
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Belgian news paper "La Libre Belgique" has a long article on Indian Armed Force. According to the article Modi's stand on war is proving fatal for Indian Army. I have hard copy so I can quote the main points from articles
-Gen Manoj Panday admitted on 9th May that we are short of pieces for reparation and ammunition as Russian industry is busy in war efforts.
-85% of Indian war machine is of Russian origin
-According to some anonymous foreign diplomat, India has ammunition for only 10-15 days for a high intensity war. This is not adequate foe war on two fronts.
-Indian ordered 25000 anti tank missiles but it has received only 43%.
)India ordered 769 BMP2 Type vehicle in 2018........Only 100 were delivered as per today.
-35% of our SU30 is grounded for the lack of spare parts.
-work on 8 of the frigates have stalled because Ukraina can not provide gas turbine
-Ukraina used to provide spare parts for MI17 helicopters.Biden has offered 500 million to India to get out of dependence on Russia
In the end India has to be careful about china.
-Gen Manoj Panday admitted on 9th May that we are short of pieces for reparation and ammunition as Russian industry is busy in war efforts.
-85% of Indian war machine is of Russian origin
-According to some anonymous foreign diplomat, India has ammunition for only 10-15 days for a high intensity war. This is not adequate foe war on two fronts.
-Indian ordered 25000 anti tank missiles but it has received only 43%.
)India ordered 769 BMP2 Type vehicle in 2018........Only 100 were delivered as per today.
-35% of our SU30 is grounded for the lack of spare parts.
-work on 8 of the frigates have stalled because Ukraina can not provide gas turbine
-Ukraina used to provide spare parts for MI17 helicopters.Biden has offered 500 million to India to get out of dependence on Russia
In the end India has to be careful about china.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Please take these with a pinch of salt, they want to export to India rather than Atmanirbharta, all Indian and Russian stuff bad bad.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
From Foreign Affairs magazine, by US Security honcho Lisa Curtis:
India’s Last Best Chance:
Choosing the West Over Russia Could Make New Delhi a Great Power
Along with the Belgian article, it seems like this is the next round of pressure-by-media on India to sign up with the West against its own interests.
Very interesting:
- Shout rudely and threaten
- Sweet-talk with high-level visits
- Rinse and repeat, with a little softer tone
They have no ideas about how to bend India, except try the same failed things over and over. Of course, meeting India on its own terms is out of the question.
India’s Last Best Chance:
Choosing the West Over Russia Could Make New Delhi a Great Power
Along with the Belgian article, it seems like this is the next round of pressure-by-media on India to sign up with the West against its own interests.
Very interesting:
- Shout rudely and threaten
- Sweet-talk with high-level visits
- Rinse and repeat, with a little softer tone
They have no ideas about how to bend India, except try the same failed things over and over. Of course, meeting India on its own terms is out of the question.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
That IMO is another salvo from Blinken and Co. In light of what other events are happening - Indo-Russo trade deals, (below) US National Guards + Taiwan military, etc, this has to be taken extremely seriously.KLNMurthy wrote:From Foreign Affairs magazine, by US Security honcho Lisa Curtis:
India’s Last Best Chance:
Choosing the West Over Russia Could Make New Delhi a Great Power
Along with the Belgian article, it seems like this is the next round of pressure-by-media on India to sign up with the West against its own interests.
Very interesting:
- Shout rudely and threaten
- Sweet-talk with high-level visits
- Rinse and repeat, with a little softer tone
They have no ideas about how to bend India, except try the same failed things over and over. Of course, meeting India on its own terms is out of the question.
On a visit by Senator Duckworth (IL), Taiwan military is planning a deal with the US National Guards. Tsai says U.S. National Guard planning 'cooperation' with Taiwan military
I think India should stay neutral, but the road ahead is extremely bumpy. Buckle up.
______________________________
I think IF India flips then a boat load of other nations will follow
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Nevertheless, Indian MSM, who mostly understands IA even less than the Belgians, will happily repeat it.Aditya_V wrote:Please take these with a pinch of salt, they want to export to India rather than Atmanirbharta, all Indian and Russian stuff bad bad.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
SAMUEL CHARAP is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a co-author, with Timothy J. Colton, of Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.
Ukraine’s Best Chance for Peace
Ukraine’s Best Chance for Peace
Amid the gloom, it would be easy to forget the real progress that negotiators have already made. In late March, Ukrainian diplomats introduced an innovative framework for a deal that could provide a pathway out of the war. And crucially, the proposal, which was leaked to the press following talks in Istanbul on March 29, has already received at least preliminary support from both sides. At the center of the proposed deal is a trade: Kyiv would renounce its ambitions to join NATO and embrace permanent neutrality in return for receiving security guarantees from both its Western partners and from Russia.
Perhaps because of its novelty, the significance of the Istanbul proposal has yet to be appreciated in many Western capitals, where security guarantees have become synonymous with treaties of alliance. Unlike an alliance, which unites close partners in common defense, usually against a potential enemy, the proposed deal calls for geopolitical rivals to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security jointly, outside of an alliance structure—and to do so despite one of the rivals’ ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. If the proposal were to become the basis of an eventual settlement, the result would be a mechanism, however counterintuitive, that would make Russia itself a stakeholder in Ukraine’s security.
The Istanbul proposal envisions a very different mechanism for ensuring Ukraine’s security. According to the communiqué that was leaked to the press, the proposal would establish Ukraine as a permanently neutral country and provides for international legal guarantees of its nonnuclear and nonaligned status. The guarantors of the treaty would include all the permanent members of the UN Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—as well as Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Poland, and Turkey. In the event of an attack on Ukraine, these guarantor states, after receiving an official appeal from Kyiv and conducting urgent consultations, would provide assistance to Ukraine, including, if necessary, the use of armed force “with the goal of restoring and then maintaining Ukraine’s security as a permanently neutral state.”
According to the proposal, the guarantees would not extend to parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia (although Ukraine would not concede its legal claims to the entirety of its internationally recognized territory). Ukraine would commit not to join any military coalitions or host any foreign military bases or forces on its territory. Any multinational military exercises in Ukraine would be possible only with the consent of all the guarantor states. And finally, the guarantors would confirm their intention to promote Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. The proposal contained additional provisions, and certain details have been clarified since the Istanbul meeting. But according to published reports, the core points of the communiqué remain on the table.
Multilateral security guarantees serve a fundamentally different purpose than alliances. Whereas alliances such as NATO are intended to maintain collective defense against a common enemy, multilateral security guarantees are designed to ensure comity among the guarantors regarding the guaranteed state, and by extension to bolster that state’s security. In this sense, the Istanbul proposal is similar in form to the treaties that enshrined Belgium’s independence and guaranteed its permanent neutrality in 1831 and 1839.
This might be a solution. At the same time a violation of this guarantee at a future date will most likely trigger another war in Europe like in 1914.An agreement based on the Istanbul communiqué would be exceptionally difficult to negotiate. The politics of the conflict, Russia’s war crimes, and the ongoing fighting present powerful obstacles to achieving it. But so far, it is the most plausible pathway that has been identified to a sustainable peace for Ukraine.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
^^^And thats precisely why the Istanbul proposal was shot down by UK & US. The west will never find common cause with Russia. Any security guarantee in which the West and Russia are both involved will make it impossible to attack Russia directly or indirectly. Thats also why MINSK accords were torpedoed by UK & US.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
I think that Bucharest agreement was already doing something similar. But the US overthrow of Ukrainian government in 2004 destroyed that agreement.Cyrano wrote:^^^And thats precisely why the Istanbul proposal was shot down by UK & US. The west will never find common cause with Russia. Any security guarantee in which the West and Russia are both involved will make it impossible to attack Russia directly or indirectly. Thats also why MINSK accords were torpedoed by UK & US.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
I am proud that India so far is showing the finger to the different 'independent' organizations run by poodle and DC. What a breath of fresh air. The many times UN resolutions have been passed, 1/6 of the planet's population is [1/3'rd at a minimum, if you include CCP], is asking the west to bugger off.
I love it.
I love it.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 220531.htm
"Beijing secretly began its air force and armoured unit drills from February, near Russian borders, in the name of routine exercises," said one senior intelligence source.
Intelligence sources said China's military activities along the Ussuri River had gone unnoticed with the global spotlight focused on Russia's Ukraine invasion and on China's movements in the Taiwan Strait, reported The Klaxon.
China and Russia have a history of tension in the region. In March 1969, China surprised Moscow by ambushing the remote Damansky Island in a bloody attack which saw 31 Soviet border guards killed and brought the two powers to the brink of an all-out war.
Anthony Klan, writing in The Klaxon, an investigative Australian newspaper. said it has obtained images and details of China's air force and army conducting secretive exercises in the Russian border areas along the Ussuri River, near Russia's sparsely populated Khabarovsk and Ussuriysk regions, in February and March this year
"The far eastern territory of Russia including the areas of Khabarovsk and Ussuriysk are already remote and Russians have hardly enough military presence to secure these areas, especially if China attempts to venture out".
"Beijing secretly began its air force and armoured unit drills from February, near Russian borders, in the name of routine exercises," said one senior intelligence source.
Intelligence sources said China's military activities along the Ussuri River had gone unnoticed with the global spotlight focused on Russia's Ukraine invasion and on China's movements in the Taiwan Strait, reported The Klaxon.
China and Russia have a history of tension in the region. In March 1969, China surprised Moscow by ambushing the remote Damansky Island in a bloody attack which saw 31 Soviet border guards killed and brought the two powers to the brink of an all-out war.
Anthony Klan, writing in The Klaxon, an investigative Australian newspaper. said it has obtained images and details of China's air force and army conducting secretive exercises in the Russian border areas along the Ussuri River, near Russia's sparsely populated Khabarovsk and Ussuriysk regions, in February and March this year
"The far eastern territory of Russia including the areas of Khabarovsk and Ussuriysk are already remote and Russians have hardly enough military presence to secure these areas, especially if China attempts to venture out".
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Looking for another thrashing from the Russians and that too at the same location.kit wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 220531.htm
"Beijing secretly began its air force and armoured unit drills from February, near Russian borders, in the name of routine exercises," said one senior intelligence source.
Intelligence sources said China's military activities along the Ussuri River
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Following video is interesting from the perspective of providing various dimensions of the conflict for its stakeholders for causal followers.
The channel comes across as borderline independent (to improve viewership and make YT money) with clear weystern bias in subtle ways. You don’t have to agree to the channel’s biased view or opinions (just ignore if it helps), just the geopolitical dimensions of the conflict for various stakeholders are reasonably highlighted (not all but many).
And, why serious attempts were made to woo India away from Russ in the early days of the conflict and may continue in near future…when pent-a-gone says that the conflict will last for months, no kidding.
The channel comes across as borderline independent (to improve viewership and make YT money) with clear weystern bias in subtle ways. You don’t have to agree to the channel’s biased view or opinions (just ignore if it helps), just the geopolitical dimensions of the conflict for various stakeholders are reasonably highlighted (not all but many).
And, why serious attempts were made to woo India away from Russ in the early days of the conflict and may continue in near future…when pent-a-gone says that the conflict will last for months, no kidding.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Looks like wishful thinking planted by Western agencies.KL Dubey wrote:Looking for another thrashing from the Russians and that too at the same location.kit wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/chin ... 220531.htm
"Beijing secretly began its air force and armoured unit drills from February, near Russian borders, in the name of routine exercises," said one senior intelligence source.
Intelligence sources said China's military activities along the Ussuri River
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Interesting article, ignores the settlement of boundry issue between Russia and China.
But then again, these people were saying during the early part of the conflict that Russians are asking PRC to provide them with military hardware.
But then again, these people were saying during the early part of the conflict that Russians are asking PRC to provide them with military hardware.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
^^^
Russia and China are acting as allies:
Russia and China are acting as allies:
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Is the population of Belgium bigger than the number of soldiers in the Indian Armed Forces? Just saying...rsingh wrote:Belgian news paper "La Libre Belgique" has a long article on Indian Armed Force.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
10 million. But that is not the point. This article represents thinking of EU.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Nothing new in what those two are doing.eklavya wrote:^^^
Russia and China are acting as allies:
The new news is at the other end. A very badly wounded US and EU leadership (not militaries).
The US needs a new set of gov advisors, the current, including the likes of Yellen, cannot be relied on to make sound non-idiologistic decisions. All of them are compromised. AOC, Sanders, ...... gone.
von der Leyen, etc, are their counterparts in the EU.
The entire Western leadership is in question. However, there are no good replacements either.
India is providing that leadership but is not loud or strong enough. And,a Saran at Davos (wonder who paid $800,000 for his seat) is not enough. Need a powerful news outlet too, diff thread.
But, the Russian "military" - equipment, etc is equally badly wounded.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Would you rather trust the Chinese ?rsingh wrote:Looks like wishful thinking planted by Western agencies.KL Dubey wrote:
Looking for another thrashing from the Russians and that too at the same location.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
How the seeds of hate were sown and how it's bearing bitter fruit now:
https://csegr.ru/https-csegr-ru-discrim ... raine-eng/
https://csegr.ru/https-csegr-ru-discrim ... raine-eng/
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Nop. But Chinese dare not to start one more front. They would like to deal with Taiwan first (with Russia as a friend).kit wrote:Would you rather trust the Chinese ?rsingh wrote: Looks like wishful thinking planted by Western agencies.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
From Bayratkars destroyed the Russian Army it has now come to this, say Ukraine attacks Turkey over this, will Article 5 be brought into play?
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines- ... 022-06-03/
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines- ... 022-06-03/
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Your weekend treat :
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Toooooo short. Weekends are much longer.Cyrano wrote:Your weekend treat :
BTW, another minute and he would have his own Maidan in EU!!
However, who was the interviewer? Any idea?
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Some UK based person called Maithreyi Seetharaman. Havent heard of her before.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
There is SJ's lecture on QUAD I posted couple of days ago as well, if you havent watched it NRao ji
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Maithreyi Seetharaman
CEO, Facultas Media Limited, London
Sharp.
Good questions, I thought. Better answers.
Jaishankar had addressed the question of "which side of the fence" in 2019 (in a personal capacity), while on a panel with Gen. David Petraeus, former U.S. Central Command commander !!
What is evident is that a lot in the West have accepted that unipolar is no longer tenable (I think this UKR adventure killed that baby). Now the battle is between Bipolar or Multipolar.
__________________
Not sure if I have watched the QUAD vid. Will check it out - long weekend, don't want to burn it on a Friday PM. Thanks
CEO, Facultas Media Limited, London
Sharp.
Good questions, I thought. Better answers.
Jaishankar had addressed the question of "which side of the fence" in 2019 (in a personal capacity), while on a panel with Gen. David Petraeus, former U.S. Central Command commander !!
What is evident is that a lot in the West have accepted that unipolar is no longer tenable (I think this UKR adventure killed that baby). Now the battle is between Bipolar or Multipolar.
__________________
Not sure if I have watched the QUAD vid. Will check it out - long weekend, don't want to burn it on a Friday PM. Thanks
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
War is above all, a money making enterprise. A small example:
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/2 ... ble-prices
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/2 ... ble-prices
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Your very own went to one of such auction. Things are sold as per scrap value. They have transporters, marsh Road steel plates, cranes etc all in working condition. Flamish company is basically a scrapyard. Such places are called "stock Americaine". I go there for rough army Tshirts,socks and Military ration kits. Have tested French, Danish and Belgian.Cyrano wrote:War is above all, a money making enterprise. A small example:
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/2 ... ble-prices
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
What they won't have is perhaps ammo for these tanks ! Never tasted a mil ration kit - except haldiram's heat & eats
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Western Support for Ukraine Has Peaked
The honeymoon that Ukraine’s leaders have enjoyed with the West will not last.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... st/661155/
The honeymoon that Ukraine’s leaders have enjoyed with the West will not last.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... st/661155/
Whats on display is not just western journalists' cognitive dissonance but serious intelligence deficit.By Andrew Exum - JUNE 1, 2022
About the author: Andrew Exum is a contributing writer for The Atlantic. From 2015 to 2017, he was the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy.
We’ve likely reached the high-water mark of the grand alliance to defeat Russia in Ukraine. In the coming months, relations between the Ukrainian leadership and its external supporters will grow strained, and the culprit will be economic pain exacerbated by the war.
When our children and grandchildren study this conflict, they will marvel at the speed and audacity with which the Western powers—Europe and the United States, primarily—mobilized to arm the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia’s onslaught. In stark contrast to the Winter War of 1939–40, when Russia invaded Finland and various Western powers hemmed and hawed before providing only token assistance to the plucky Finns, Europeans have fallen over themselves to provide lethal aid to the Ukrainians.
And it really is lethal aid, which amazes me: I had the misfortune of helping deconflict allied and Russian operations over Syria from 2015 through 2017, when we went to extraordinary lengths to avoid killing any Russians, for fear of starting World War III.
Today, meanwhile, we are sending some of our most advanced anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons systems to the Ukrainians with the express purpose of killing as many Russians as possible. Not only the United States but the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Sweden—Sweden!—were quick to provide anti-tank weapons. Sweden and Finland, meanwhile, seem likely to join NATO at the first available opportunity (and once Turkey’s demands on arms sales and the Kurds are met).
The remarkable Western response confirms the extent of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s miscalculation, but it also stands in stark contrast to the way the West handled previous Russian military offensives in Georgia, in 2008, and Ukraine, in 2014. In each of those conflicts, the European states dragged their feet before imposing any costs on Russia. That reluctance to take any action almost certainly informed Russian calculations prior to this latest offensive.
The war has now dragged on for months, though, and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. As the British strategist Lawrence Freedman observed, you could detect the outlines of what Russia might settle for in Putin’s May 9 speech to commemorate the Allied victory in World War II: protection of Crimea; nothing that could be characterized as Ukrainian aggression in the Donbas region; and a guarantee that Ukraine will not host nuclear weapons on its soil.
But Ukraine is unlikely, in the extreme, to settle for any territorial concessions. The Ukrainians must also sense, recent losses notwithstanding, that they can still win this war.
So Ukraine continues to press its Western allies for more support. What it wants now, however, is the kind of support that it would need to not only resist Russian advances but also win back territory and duel with Russia’s powerful artillery. The Biden administration is more reluctant to provide this aid, and it is hard to see other countries getting much further out ahead than the Americans.
One big reason for this reluctance is that the economic costs of the war are starting to seriously concern American and other Western policy makers. Eurozone inflation is up to 8.1 percent for the year, while in the United States, inflation is at a four-decade high. Leading economists worry about a recession next year, while business leaders with whom I speak fret that one may arrive sooner.
Putin’s war on Ukraine didn’t cause all of this pain in the global economy, but it certainly doesn’t help, and it has played an outsize role in the pain we are about to feel in the global supply of food.
All of that pain makes this a really crummy time to be a democratically elected incumbent almost anywhere in the world—and a very good time to be a populist. Recent elections in Colombia, France, Australia, and Germany have illustrated the headwinds facing both incumbents and mainstream parties.
The twin pressures of an ailing economy and surging populism will be on the minds of Western decision makers as they wrestle with a war that will continue to take a toll on the world’s leading economies.
For that reason, the conversations between Ukraine and its supporters abroad are likely to grow harder, not easier, as the year progresses. Ukraine will come under more pressure, and not just from Henry Kissinger, to concede some territory and allow Russia to save face.
Even a hasty termination of the conflict, however, seems unlikely to arrest the world’s slide into greater economic pain. Putin’s war, of course, has little to do with China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy or the efficiency of West Coast ports. Yet the war—like all wars—captivates the imagination of onlookers in a way that port operations never seem to do. The grumbling from Western capitals about the duration of this conflict will continue, and the honeymoon that Ukraine’s leaders have enjoyed with the West will end soon.
Russia will note and be delighted by increasing fissures between Ukraine and its supporters. But Putin should not take too much comfort in what he sees. The sanctions his country faces are uniquely sticky: They’re not likely to quickly go away, regardless of whether the United States sends long-range missiles or just shorter-range rockets to Ukraine. And losses in the junior ranks of Russia’s officer corps alone tell the story of an army flirting with combat ineffectiveness. Russia is capable of absorbing immense pain on the battlefield, but despite minor territorial gains, its strategic situation has not improved.
Ukraine, for its part, may decide that although an uneasy truce by the early fall might not be an acceptable final settlement, it would nevertheless allow it to stiffen its defenses in the east, where the terrain favors Russian armor and artillery, and refit its own exhausted combat units. Such a truce would also give the brutal sanctions on Russia more time to weigh on the minds of Russian leaders. And an armistice, even if temporary, would no doubt be quietly welcomed in Western capitals.
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
^^^^^
I think that Russia, China, and India, among other nations have come to the conclusion that the only way to break the current Western designed systems - financial in particular - is to come up with robust alternatives that anyone can switch to at a moments notice.
The Russian solution to open two bank accounts, one for a currency of choice and the other in Ruble, has broken the cut off from SWIFT.
I think India's behavior - middle man for oil, ban on market based exports of wheat, etc - are gamed, to support the above. Perhaps with Russia.
If indeed that is true then there is going to be a massive disappointment in the West. EU would be defanged. And, the US would lose a lot of sheen, at the very least. Multipolar (and if you think about it India and Russia should have very similar goals here).
I think that Russia, China, and India, among other nations have come to the conclusion that the only way to break the current Western designed systems - financial in particular - is to come up with robust alternatives that anyone can switch to at a moments notice.
The Russian solution to open two bank accounts, one for a currency of choice and the other in Ruble, has broken the cut off from SWIFT.
I think India's behavior - middle man for oil, ban on market based exports of wheat, etc - are gamed, to support the above. Perhaps with Russia.
If indeed that is true then there is going to be a massive disappointment in the West. EU would be defanged. And, the US would lose a lot of sheen, at the very least. Multipolar (and if you think about it India and Russia should have very similar goals here).
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
Seems like BIF brigade and ISI has begun their work on behalf of the west cabal., targeted killings in Kashmir and Kejri boy crying for the pandits all on cueNRao wrote:^^^^^
I think that Russia, China, and India, among other nations have come to the conclusion that the only way to break the current Western designed systems - financial in particular - is to come up with robust alternatives that anyone can switch to at a moments notice.
The Russian solution to open two bank accounts, one for a currency of choice and the other in Ruble, has broken the cut off from SWIFT.
I think India's behavior - middle man for oil, ban on market based exports of wheat, etc - are gamed, to support the above. Perhaps with Russia.
If indeed that is true then there is going to be a massive disappointment in the West. EU would be defanged. And, the US would lose a lot of sheen, at the very least. Multipolar (and if you think about it India and Russia should have very similar goals here).
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
My responsekit wrote: Seems like BIF brigade and ISI has begun their work on behalf of the west cabal., targeted killings in Kashmir and Kejri boy crying for the pandits all on cue
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
NRao wrote: Jaishankar had addressed the question of "which side of the fence" in 2019 (in a personal capacity), while on a panel with Gen. David Petraeus, former U.S. Central Command commander !!
What is evident is that a lot in the West have accepted that unipolar is no longer tenable (I think this UKR adventure killed that baby). Now the battle is between Bipolar or Multipolar.
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Not sure if I have watched the QUAD vid. Will check it out - long weekend, don't want to burn it on a Friday PM. Thanks
Japan has gamed the scenario ., the G2 is no longer their view but G3., a multipolar world is the only way to contain China., hence the QUAD and the need for a stable government in India, an IN powerful enough is one of their interests., but more importantly the political will to enforce the himalayan borders / even considering a free Tibet would force China to spread out into multiple fronts ( at the same time) .
India is key to the new Asian and hence the new world order and the only counter weight to China
off note someone should leak the Congress MOU with China ., what exactly is the agreement ., there seems some hidden clauses to it
Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]
While international media continues to report on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there is an underlying narrative that merits more attention. In this piece for Project O Five, my colleague Siddhant Hira - a current MA National Security Studies candidate at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London - takes a look at the media and narrative strategy that Ukraine's policymakers may have missed and could consider. Perhaps it is time to step up the ante and win the psychological battle. #strategy #ukraine #russia #military #narrative #tactics
Should Ukraine Refine Its Media And Narrative Strategy?
Should Ukraine Refine Its Media And Narrative Strategy?