Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Was watching RRR. I think Ukraine joker was could be seen in sitting on a table. How they amanaged shoo the film at Presidential palace. British flag was flying on the top of it.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chanakyaa »

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1527958894575857664

The war in Ukraine can only be resolved through "diplomacy", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a domestic television channel on Saturday amid a deadlock in negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
After the loss of the azov steel plant, some realism has kicked in. Bit stretched but the Rumor mills are in overdrive, suggesting that hundreds or thousands of prisoners (2000+) who were taken from the steel plant to Russ jail have valuable foreigners, ex-mill types, who may be used as a leverage for sanction relief, concession ityadi ityadi. Will the money From the swiftly passed $40 billion aid ($54 billion total), be used to secure the lives of these people whose names may be embarrassment if made publicly?

(Hill) Time for a strategic pause on NATO expansion
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Read some where half the money is gone in packing, transporting and insurance of the weapons being supplied. The aid package is a scam to fund midterm campaign.
As for foreigners in Azovstal, there is no smoke without fire, there have been reports of high ranking officers there for months now. If they've been kept out of public eye it's not surprising given Russia doesn't care for 'international opinion'

Funny elensly is parroting Indian FM's lines now.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Kaivalya »

Kujlinski is making more demands in the case of tail wagging the dog...
Whereas he had earlier indicated significant flexibility on the Donbas, Zelensky is now demanding “a restoration of preinvasion borders, the return of more than 5 million refugees, membership in the European Union, and accountability from Russian military leaders.”
https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog ... expansion/

For the sake of common people, I hope there is some way all parties can save face and make peace...
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vijayk »

Italy presented a four-point peace plan this week to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to end the conflict in Ukraine.

“We are working with partners and allies, including Ukraine, on a peace plan,” said a spokesman for the Italian Foreign Ministry, declining to give further details. A spokesman for Mr. Guterres declined to comment on the proposal.

The plan calls for local cease-fires to allow for civilian evacuations, and creating the conditions for a general cease-fire leading “to a long-lasting peace,” Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio said on Friday, according to the Associated Press.

Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported earlier on the proposal, with points that mostly mirror comments made publicly by Prime Minister Mario Draghi and other Western European leaders.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... 6P1mwDbjdn
Italy Circulates 4-Point Peace Plan
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Lisa »

^ :roll: :roll: :roll:

"The first step in the peace plan, according to the newspaper, is a cease-fire and the demilitarization of the front lines.

The second point is that Ukraine would be a neutral country, with its security guaranteed by a not-yet-identified group of countries. The contours of this part of the plan would be discussed at a peace conference.

The third point is a bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine to clarify the future of Crimea and Donbas. The agreement would deal with cultural and language rights and guarantee the free movement of people, goods and capital. The plan, according to Repubblica, indicates that Crimea and Donbas would have almost complete autonomy, including in questions of defense, but would be part of Ukraine.

The fourth point would be a multilateral peace agreement between the European Union and Russia that would include a staged withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the winding down of Western sanctions against Moscow."

What EXACTLY is different in these points from the Russian demands before the war? More to the point structural difference between these points and Minsk accords?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by NRao »

Lisa wrote:^ :roll: :roll: :roll:

..........................

What EXACTLY is different in these points from the Russian demands before the war? More to the point structural difference between these points and Minsk accords?
My sense is that there is a split between Neocon (Blinken + Sullivan + Nuland) + Boris Johnson + Jr. Partner Zelensky and Germany + France + Italy + a few other minor nations. The latter is hurting and I think they knew the consequences and therefore have saddled the fence since the start of this conflict. Those three have been in touch with Putin constantly.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by IndraD »

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opin ... pport.html

NYT has published this op ed asking Ukraine to give up land to end war
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vijayk »

IndraD wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opin ... pport.html

NYT has published this op ed asking Ukraine to give up land to end war
But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement.
This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.” Russia will be feeling the pain of isolation and debilitating economic sanctions for years to come, and Mr. Putin will go down in history as a butcher. The challenge now is to shake off the euphoria, stop the taunting and focus on defining and completing the mission. America’s support for Ukraine is a test of its place in the world in the 21st century, and Mr. Biden has an opportunity and an obligation to help define what that will be.
:rotfl:
Last edited by vijayk on 23 May 2022 02:46, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vera_k »

^ That's not an op-ed. Winds of change if the editorial board is calling for compromise.

Link
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

NRao ji,
I don't really see Germany in the second group but in the first since it has outsourced it's security and therefore military/foreign policy to the US. The latter also keeps stoking German misgivings about France to keep the wedge between the two legs on which Europe stands. It was not easy until momma Merkel was there, but Scholz and his FM Frau are total sellouts, and their backers the greens are hooked to the Dems' New Green Deal scam.
I think Italy is being propped up by France, still sore from Aukus humping but can't take on US directly. JMT
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

vera_k wrote:^ That's not an op-ed. Winds of change if the editorial board is calling for compromise.

Link
WTH are they saying? It can be read in a hundred different ways. Which means they know they're losing and the bali ka bakra is being prepared. No, it's definitely not Putin!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by vera_k »

^
But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.

Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement. This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.”
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Atmavik »

^^^ the limit for us support is the last Ukrainian left
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Vayutuvan »

Lisa wrote:"The second point is that Ukraine would be a neutral country, with its security guaranteed by a not-yet-identified group of countries. The contours of this part of the plan would be discussed at a peace conference." ...

More to the point structural difference between these points and Minsk accords?
The devil might be in the definition of what is "a neutral country"? Not joining NATO forever? What happens to Finland's application of joining NATO?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by NRao »

@Cyrano,

Which is why I take pains to differentiate between "US" and "Neocons". : )

--------------------------------

Unfortunately, in the recent past, there has been a blurring of this line, with everyone and their grandfather making unannounced visits to Elensky. Other than that if I am not mistaken the Neocons are slowly licking their wounds - for one their "economic sanctions" have totally backfired. When JPM says take care of the economy and not the market, apparently, even the NYT listens. At this rate Soros will be a multi millionaire sooner than later.

The significance of the NYT op ed is that the NYT, a pro interventionist, has broken ranks with the Neocons. NYT should be the last one - the one to turn the lights off while on the way out.

---------------------------------

I would like this madness to continue for another month or two, so that the powers are sufficiently weakened to usher in a new world order. For sure the link between Russia and EU are pretty much ruptured - at best they will be a transactional one, certainly devoid of any trust. To that extent even the plea by NYT is DOA - I just cannot see Putin agreeing to anything. IF at all, it will have to be others agreeing to Putin - at least in the near future.

I think ALL previous accords and agreements are gone for good. Minsk, Bucharest, whatever. New day.

-----------------------------------

On a totally diff note and for another thread, I would love to be a fly on the wall during the Modi-Biden "straightforward" meet. Start of India as a pole in a multipolar world order, IMO.

JMTs
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Roop »

Lisa wrote:^ :roll: :roll: :roll:
The third point is a bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine to clarify the future of Crimea and Donbas. The agreement would deal with cultural and language rights and guarantee the free movement of people, goods and capital. The plan, according to Repubblica, indicates that Crimea and Donbas would have almost complete autonomy, including in questions of defense, but would be part of Ukraine.
That's not going to happen (the part about "almost complete autonomy" for Donbas and Crimea).

First of all, after all the blood, sweat, toil and tears that Russia spent to acquire and annex Crimea, it is a complete pipe dream to imagine that they would now give that all up just to stop a war that they are not losing. This is a demented idea.

For the other part (Donbas remains part of Ukraine but enjoys "almost complete autonomy"), that is not going to happen now, but it could have easily happened before the war started on Feb 24. In fact, it was part of what Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the EU agreed to and signed/ratified in the Minsk Agreement. But no, Unkil was not happy with Minsk, so he twisted Ukraine's and EU's arms and forced them to renege on the agreement. And now, after Russia has spent all this blood and treasure acquiring possession and control of Donbas, Putin is expected to just shrug his shoulders and say, "Okay, I guess you can have it back, guys. Just kidding, it's all been a big misunderstanding!". Why would they do that?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chanakyaa »

"The first step in the peace plan, according to the newspaper, is a cease-fire and the demilitarization of the front lines.

The second point is that Ukraine would be a neutral country, with its security guaranteed by a not-yet-identified group of countries. The contours of this part of the plan would be discussed at a peace conference.

The third point is a bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine to clarify the future of Crimea and Donbas. ...

The fourth point would be a multilateral peace agreement between the European Union and Russia that would include a staged withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the winding down of Western sanctions against Moscow."
...
So the stakeholders went from providing weapons and long-term commitment to Ukies to a p!ss plan in a very short timeframe. Tough to see any genuineness of such plan. This p!ss conversation is either a trial balloon or a much needed break needed by Ukie and allies to regroup, restock and, equally, for Russ to restock, consolidate its gains before next round of advances. My guess is that Ukies are desperately looking for some breathing space to restock supply lines, get fuel, weapons to front lines etc. under the guise of p!ss plan and summer is a nice time to do it, but who are they kidding. Backfiring of sanctions may be legit, but hard to believe (at least in the short-term), it was not anticipated/gamed before getting into this mess.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by sanjaykumar »

Kosygin was very clear in 1965 when he told Ayub Khan that you can’t win at the table what you lost on the field.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Absolutely right Lisa, Roop jis.
Peace noises are for buying time for NATO to figure out what to do next. Putin will not stop the SMO, irrespective of peace talks on the side or not.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

sanjaykumar wrote:Kosygin was very clear in 1965 when he told Ayub Khan that you can’t win at the table what you lost on the field.
This is the most fundamental principle of international relations. As long as Ukraine thinks that it can win on the battlefield. No fruitful negotiations will happen.

The western power's supply of arms gave Ukraine a false sense of comfort and assurance that it could win the conflict.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Deans »

Roop wrote: That's not going to happen (the part about "almost complete autonomy" for Donbas and Crimea).

First of all, after all the blood, sweat, toil and tears that Russia spent to acquire and annex Crimea, it is a complete pipe dream to imagine that they would now give that all up just to stop a war that they are not losing. This is a demented idea.

For the other part (Donbas remains part of Ukraine but enjoys "almost complete autonomy"), that is not going to happen now, but it could have easily happened before the war started on Feb 24. In fact, it was part of what Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and the EU agreed to and signed/ratified in the Minsk Agreement. But no, Unkil was not happy with Minsk, so he twisted Ukraine's and EU's arms and forced them to renege on the agreement. And now, after Russia has spent all this blood and treasure acquiring possession and control of Donbas..,
I think its a question of balancing `must have, vs. nice to have' for both sides. Russia can offer territory in Ukraine it does not absolutely need, in return for sanctions lifting.
Crimea is not negotiable for Russia. I believe Russia will want Crimea to be recognised as part of Russia, with water supply through the Kherson canal guaranteed, in return for giving up claims on Kherson district.
Pre-war, Russian backed rebels occupied about 50% of the Donbass. They now have close to 100% Putin might agree to a Minsk 3.0, where autonomy applies to the total territory of both provinces (not half). As long as the people of the Donbass are free to move to Russia and have their safety and rights assured, I don't think Russia wants the burden of subsidizing them.
Ukraine could therefore get control of its pre war borders, in return for sanctions lifted, neutral status and disbanding / outlawing Neo Nazi groups.
Zelanski will not survive the next election and does not need to, he will probably go to the West, so regime change is not important.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Prolonged sanctions are good for Russia actually. Russians will use knocked off Chinese phones or may be some completely new product of their own. They have their own GPS. They have a technical base. German luxury cars,French wine and cheese and Italian fashion products were the main imports. French wine share in the world is on constant decline. Wine from Peru,Argentina and South Africa is getting better and better. Heck even Indian wine is getting better and better. Russia's biggest problem was the lack of market economy and modern management skills. They have improved dramatically.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Vayutuvan »

they can withhold caviar exports.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by rsingh »

Lisa wrote:^ :roll: :roll: :roll:

"The first step in the peace plan, according to the newspaper, is a cease-fire and the demilitarization of the front lines.

The second point is that Ukraine would be a neutral country, with its security guaranteed by a not-yet-identified group of countries. The contours of this part of the plan would be discussed at a peace conference.

The third point is a bilateral agreement between Russia and Ukraine to clarify the future of Crimea and Donbas. The agreement would deal with cultural and language rights and guarantee the free movement of people, goods and capital. The plan, according to Repubblica, indicates that Crimea and Donbas would have almost complete autonomy, including in questions of defense, but would be part of Ukraine.

The fourth point would be a multilateral peace agreement between the European Union and Russia that would include a staged withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the winding down of Western sanctions against Moscow."

What EXACTLY is different in these points from the Russian demands before the war? More to the point structural difference between these points and Minsk accords?
security guarantees are pieces of paper. Russia knows it very well. Right from Napoleon to Reagan, Russia was promised of friendship,cooperation and security.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Russia has been very active in administering conquered Ukrainian territories. Its running local schools, hospitals, utilities, telecom & internet, banking, introduced Rubles as local currency, has started paying pensions to the old and the disabled, sending train loads of relief supplies etc. Destroyed cities are being cleaned, infra rebuild is starting already. The seem to have huge popular support, and they need it for getting people to trust them and give witness in the war crime trials that will start soon.

So besides the costs incurred in the military phase in terms of men and materials, Russia is continuing to invest and involve more. All this means they will no longer accept or care for autonomy etc for these regions, complete integration into Russian state is the roadmap being implemented.

Thats why I was saying that Ukraine as we know it until now will cease to exist. Whatever (if it) remains will be so irrelevant, it joining NATO/EU or some Intergalactic Alliance will make no difference.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by NRao »

So besides the costs incurred in the military phase in terms of men and materials, Russia is continuing to invest and involve more. All this means they will no longer accept or care for autonomy etc for these regions, complete integration into Russian state is the roadmap being implemented.
I think this became a reality only after Ukraine renegade on what she had negotiated in their first meeting in Turkey, about 2 months ago. Post meeting with Blinken and Austin, followed by Johnson. Russia realized that Ukraine was not serious and cannot be trusted.

The calculus from NATO is still being computed.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

Agree; I think Russia has had it with US & Europe. They have taken the sanctions on the chin and brought EU to its knees on gas for roubles. Ukraine was maximalist 3 months ago with nothing in hand, now its Russia's turn with a third of Ukraine in hand !
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by chanakyaa »

McFaul's freudian slip? but nothing new. mostly of entertain value

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1528404483016822784
"So our diplomats were lying (when offering #Ukraine #NATO membership in 2021?"
Former U.S. Ambassador to #Russia @McFaul : Yes!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by hnair »

ekalavya, back again with "confessions of assorted ashamed russians" ? Keep those large confessional images in links and off our screens. Thanks
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by skumar »

Cyrano wrote: ...
Thats why I was saying that Ukraine as we know it until now will cease to exist. Whatever (if it) remains will be so irrelevant, it joining NATO/EU or some Intergalactic Alliance will make no difference.
I agree that Ukraine will cease to exist as it exists now. But even the remaining part joining NATO will be a red line for Russia. The distance to Moscow has not changed with current positions.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by KLNMurthy »

vera_k wrote:^ That's not an op-ed. Winds of change if the editorial board is calling for compromise.

Link
yeah much bigger deal than an oped
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by KLNMurthy »

Cyrano wrote:
vera_k wrote:^ That's not an op-ed. Winds of change if the editorial board is calling for compromise.

Link
WTH are they saying? It can be read in a hundred different ways. Which means they know they're losing and the bali ka bakra is being prepared. No, it's definitely not Putin!
This, below is the downhill skiing part:
That goal cannot shift, but in the end, it is still not in America’s best interest to plunge into an all-out war with Russia, even if a negotiated peace may require Ukraine to make some hard decisions. And the U.S. aims and strategy in this war have become harder to discern, as the parameters of the mission appear to have changed.
this is the part where they say, "we know we are downhill-skiing, but we think that you, dear reader, are an idiot whom we can BS into thinking we are not."
Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement. This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.” Russia will be feeling the pain of isolation and debilitating economic sanctions for years to come, and Mr. Putin will go down in history as a butcher. The challenge now is to shake off the euphoria, stop the taunting and focus on defining and completing the mission. America’s support for Ukraine is a test of its place in the world in the 21st century, and Mr. Biden has an opportunity and an obligation to help define what that will be.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Cyrano »

What an assault on intelligence that article is!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Maria »

For those who doubt the existence of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, from a source you would luuuvvvvv:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Maria »

For those who doubt the existence of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, from a source you would luuuvvvvv - the PeePeeCeeeeeeeee:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Sachin »

When discussions at BRF clearly show that Russia is gaining in the Russia-Ukraine war, Indian news outlets like Deccan Herald are still dreaming about Ukraine winning the war and also holding war tribunals. They either don't know or are keeping news about Ukraine's surrender at Azovstal hidden.
Russian soldier on trial in Ukraine asks for 'forgiveness'. (Deccan Herald)

PS: With Russia gaining the upper hand, what are the chances of she asking all Russian soldier's in Ukraine's custody to be sent back?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by ks_sachin »

Sachin wrote:When discussions at BRF clearly show that Russia is gaining in the Russia-Ukraine war, Indian news outlets like Deccan Herald are still dreaming about Ukraine winning the war and also holding war tribunals. They either don't know or are keeping news about Ukraine's surrender at Azovstal hidden.
Russian soldier on trial in Ukraine asks for 'forgiveness'. (Deccan Herald)

PS: With Russia gaining the upper hand, what are the chances of she asking all Russian soldier's in Ukraine's custody to be sent back?
Mate that is an AFP story. AFP is Agence France-Presse. This is not an important story for DH and its readership.
Plus the story is about the Russian soldier not about Azovstal.
Just because a junior copy editor on a news desk chooses a particular story does not mean that he or she is trying to hide some other news item especially as the surrender at Azovstal is public news and knowledge.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Post by Pratyush »

A POW cannot be put on trial under international laws. He can be interned for the duration of the conflict or repatriated at the first available opportunity.

Not put on trial.

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/war-and-law ... ersons.htm
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