Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 13 Feb 2015 21:28

Deans wrote: Additionally Ukraine will have to repay the money to IMF, while its currency steadily depreciates, making repayment costlier. In earlier times IMF/EU might have chosen to write off the debt, but not when they have Greece threatening to default on a far bigger amount.

Another Pakistan-like rentier state is born in the EU right before our very eyes -- an unstable violent state perpetually in civil war. This is an old game for the US from cold war times...nothing changes it seems, century after century.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 00:32

And Germany has zero interest in giving into anglo-american or polish designs.

Doesnt look like they need to give into anyone`s designs.
Didnt Merkel `confront` Yanukovich in Riga when he refused the sign the agreement ?
Didnt they immediately recognise the great maidan `revolution` ?
Sanctions, support for the ukrainazis at every corner and blaming Russia for all ills.

Germany manages its PR relations well.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 00:36

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/ ... 4T20150213

Outgoing fire from the Ukrainian side was visible on the road between Kiev-controlled Kramatorsk and rebel-held Donetsk and rebels at a checkpoint near Donetsk said they had been hit by mortar strikes. They mocked the impending truce.

"What sort of ceasefire? Don’t make me laugh. This is already the second or third ceasefire," one said.

Ukraine's pro-Western president said he was not naive and wanted to make clear the country was a long way from peace.

"Nobody has a strong belief that the peace conditions which were signed in Minsk will be implemented strictly," Petro Poroshenko said.

There will be no ceasefire. Poroshenko has been ordered accordingly.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 01:09

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 43402.html

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 14 Feb 2015 01:24

So the US publiclly announces that all will be well if the Minsk agreement is implemented and the wester propaganda outlets do their job of broadcasting this propaganda. At the same time, the US instructs its lackey poroshenko to not agree to implementing the Minsk agreement.

A short lesson on how to have your cake and feed it to your pets and sell it to your neighbour, before eating it. This educational message brought to you by Henry Kissinger and the humanitarians from Blackwater Corporation: "spreading freedom and democracy by protecting the planet from fascists and murderers for over 30 years"

member_23370 · Post by **member_23370** » 14 Feb 2015 02:47

As long as Russians are not stupid enough to buy the ceasefire nonsense and continue pummeling the neo nazis it is going ok for putin. Lets see how things turn around after 15th Feb.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Feb 2015 03:07

Lots of images and updates here
Pro-democracy, anti-Nazi Freedom Fighters enter Debaltseve, but very heavy fighting with heavy casualties on both sides. One ammo dump inflated. No surrender evident: UkBapZis claim to have captured Russian soldiers.
Images may be graphic.

Tank battle near Mariupol

A tank battle between Ukrainian government forces and militants is under way in the village of Shyrokyne, Volnovakha district of Donetsk region, which was freed by Ukrainian forces on Feb.10.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 14 Feb 2015 04:16

This is a new one -- apparently, the Ukbapzi terrorists are working for crowd-funding terrorist acts against the pro-democracy freedom fighters from Donetsk/East Ukraine. Crowd-funded wars -- welcome to the future and lob a missile in Saudi arabia by contributing generously to crowd-funded war (war id: X247-4125). Don't let your favourite wars die out due to lack of funding.

" People's Project ‏@Nbattalion Feb 12

#Debaltseve.The bloodest battle ever. The crowdfunding support for Ukrainian Artillery needed http://t.pp.ua/debaltseveen "

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Feb 2015 07:27

RSoami wrote:
This is the best outcome Putin could have hoped for. Reducing the pocket would have taken too long and would have meant
large number of (pro rebel) civilian deaths. Further fighting would also have meant the sanctions against Russia would have
started making a more visible impact.
All men gone scotfree to fight another day. All equipment in debaltseve destroyed. How is this the best outcome for Putin.
The rebels needed to hang around and stop the rescue of Ukbapzis which was not coming. The debaltseve pocket would have crumbled.

People running away from consciption in Ukraine. Unrest was rising. No money in ukraine to pay for anything. Sanctions are staying in place. The volunteer battalions themselves would have done something stupid in face of reverses in the battlefield.

Putin has just forced the pro Russian militia to abandon their military advantage second time in 6 months. He has acted dumb and stupid in trusting the west.

While I support Russia's position, the military situation is somewhat different from what you have suggested.
The rebel population base is 3 million, compared to 40 million plus for the Ukraine. The rebels only win if they inflict
casualties in a 4:1 ratio. They cannot fight a battle of attrition.

Russian analysts who understand the ground situation better, have the view that a the fighting has exhausted the rebels (who are mostly civilians) and they are barely been able to hold the Debeldsevo pocket (which they closed under heavy odds). The Ukrainian forces inside the pocket outnumber the rebels trying to close it AND there is a larger Ukrainian force trying to reopen the road into the pocket, as well as put pressure on the rebels all over the front.
The rebel economy has also ground to a halt, as most able bodied people have been mobilised.
Unlike Stalingrad, the Ukies in the pocket are not going to starve - Debaltsevo is a functioning city with Supermarkets etc.
While the Ukraining population would not be inclined to support a new offensive, they have been supportive when their soldiers are defending themselves.

Russia had its own problems because the pressure on their economy would have increased if the fighting continued and sooner or later there would have been direct evidence of Russian involvement, which would have meant a US response.

In this context, the rebels needed a quick psychological victory which has succeeded in:

- Demoralising the Ukrainians and caused their economy to tank (more than Russia's).
- Convinced Merkel and Hollande that Chocolate cannot win the war, hence the only viable solution is autonomy for the
rebel provinces - which is also what Putin wanted.
- Split NATO. France and Germany have opposed overt US involvement.
- If the last round of fighting was any indication - Ukies in the pocket will sell their equipment to the rebels,
since the volunteer units will be unemployed after the ceasefire.

Hence, the current situation puts Putin in the strongest position he would be - economically and politically, relative to the EU.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 14 Feb 2015 07:58

As of now, ceasefire seems unlikely. Ukies want debaltsevo opened before saturday night. Can the rebels take repeated ballistic missile hits?

In any case, there wont be any hardware left to sell this time. And the blood bath is going to be exemplary.

Just sad.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 10:29

Deans
Merkel says that Putin put pressure on the pro russian militia to agree to the ceasefire. So it seems that the militia was willing to continue the fight. Which means they do not agree with your assessment of the situation.

Thanks for your info on military update though. If I am not wrong then, there is a fairly large ethnic Russian population in Ukraine. Whats their view. Wouldnt they be supporting their brothers in Donetsk and Lugansk too?
There have been numerous bombings in Kharkiv and Odessa afterall.

RS

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Feb 2015 11:27

RSaomi,
It is correct that the rebels did not want the ceasefire but I think it was an elaborate bluff. The rebels won't really do anything without Putin's agreement (though there is a faction which did want to continue fighting). Whoever asked for a ceasefire first would be in a weaker negotiating position. Poroshenko blinked first. NATO got the satisfaction of saying that the threat of further sanctions got Putin to agree and Putin made a show of wanting to avoid war - unlike the US.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 12:32

Deans,
The report said that Putin put pressure on the pro-russian militia at the end of the discussion. That means, that the militia didnt really care about their `bluff` being called.
That the rebels wont do things without Putin`s support is probably true.

Putin made a show of wanting to avoid war - unlike the US.

Dont think this has worked in the Russian favour till now or will do in future. EU has placed more sanctions. Demonising Putin and Russia is well underway. Merkel declared that Putin wanted to delay the ceasefire which efectively means that he didnt get his credit. At least in the west. In fact she also said that Poroshenko did everything in his power to avoid bloodshed, giving credit to him.

The lines in this propaganda war were decided in feb last year between countries who called the deposition of Yanukovich a coup or a revolution. Few people will be moved by Putin`s show anywhere in the world now or in the near future.

So, either Putin and Russia are really weak and cant fight it out and win and therefore the ceasefire. Or Putin is a loser and no good.

RS

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 12:42

IMHO, the ceasefire wont even begin.

Poroshenko needs the support of one of the two - people of Ukraine or America.
Even if the war ends today, Poroshenko cant get support of the people because there is too much bad blood already and because of the situation Ukrainian economy is in.
So he can only work as a US lackey which will help him stay in power. America is itching for a fight, so no ceasefire from Ukrainazi end.

The pro-russian militia doesnt want and never wanted a ceasefire. Their cities and homes are getting bombed. They are angry and want to teach a good lesson to Ukrainazis too. And at the moment they have all the advantages. So, no ceasefire from that end either.

The EU doesnt expect a ceasefire either. Otherwise they wouldnt have racheted up the sanctions. They just dont want the war to spiral out of control which it will. They have acted like idiots and will reap the rewards.

Russia must be having second thoughts about the ceasefire too. But we dont know the mind of Putin, so its the only situation we dont know about.

My two paise.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Feb 2015 13:48

RSoami,
I think Putin and the rebels have made the best of a very weak hand and `quit while they were ahead'. When the conflict first started, Chocolate felt quashing the rebellion would be a `minor police action' after which he would join EU and become prosperous.
Instead, Ukraine has lost Crimea and effectively lost control of half the East and the standard of living has plummeted. Poroshenko has become a lame duck, yet he has to deliver on autonomy for the East, which will be a very hard sell for him. I agree with your view that Poroshenko needs the support of either his people or US. The problem is that US has done nothing and he is becoming increasingly unpopular with his people.
I agree the ceasefire is not likely to hold, for a variety of reasons. The right wing militia have declared they are not going to observe it and their units are outside Ukrainian army command. Chocolate cant be seen to openly support it, since he has been saying they are winning.
Some rebels (not all) don't want it, for the reasons you mention, but that's because they assume Russian support will continue. Russian nationalists in Russia don't support it either, but they haven't thought the implications of continued fighting on the Russian economy.

As is usual after such talks, each side has put a positive spin on their role. Merkel says she forced the 2 sides together. Chocolate
will say the ceasefire was the only way his people were going to eat. Putin will say he taught NATO is lesson, survived sanctions and all with negligible military losses.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 14:00

The right wing militia have declared they are not going to observe it.

Thanks but your source of this information ?!
This means that the ceasefire is dead already and should be a major news.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Feb 2015 14:32

RSoami wrote:
The right wing militia have declared they are not going to observe it.
Thanks but your source of this information ?!
This means that the ceasefire is dead already and should be a major news.

http://rt.com/news/232183-ukraine-yarosh-war-minsk/

The right wing leader `Yarosh' has some 19 militia battalions under his control which are outside the command structure of
the Ukrainian army (something like the SS in Germany in WW-2).

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 14 Feb 2015 15:22

Thanks.
10th paragraph of minsk agreement also mentions disarming all armed groups. That would also mean volunteer battalions.

What a funny agreement. The conditions can never be fulfilled.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Feb 2015 17:57

Vodka crates being posted with "V Luv U, UkBabZi!" Valentine cards

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt has posted U.S. satellite images showing Russian air defense systems and other military systems deployed in the area of Debaltseve, Donetsk region.
The ambassador posted some satellite images of the area Debaltseve on Twitter.
The ambassador said they believed that these were Russian military systems, rather than weapons of separatists.
The Russian military also deployed air defense systems near Debaltseve, the diplomat said.
According to him, the Russian troops at the border are preparing a large batch of supplies to separatists, who are fighting in the east of Ukraine.

Interesting that the UkBapZi Post's main source of info is the same as that of UBCNews:

.@GeoffPyatt says U.S. 'confident' Russian military have air defense systems deployed near #Debaltseve, shown here .
John Wendle ‏@johnwendle 1h1 hour ago

U.S. Embassy releases satellite photo saying it shows Russian army artillery near #Debaltseve @USEmbRu @GeoffPyatt
(Responses: Clement Townsend ‏@CT4444 1h1 hour ago

@johnwendle @craigcjsn @USEmbRu @GeoffPyatt Maybe Bellingcat would like to authenticate these images.
0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites
Hermius ‏@Hermius1 1h1 hour ago

@johnwendle @USEmbRu @GeoffPyatt pic.twitter.com/fagWTyvQf0
View photo 0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites
Hermius ‏@Hermius1 1h1 hour ago

@johnwendle @USEmbRu @GeoffPyatt pic.twitter.com/MU7ZokniEY)

(which makes them as AUTHENTIC as US Secretary of State Colin Powell showing satellite images at the United Nations: 400% satellite images, from the best vintage - at least 10 years old. These may in fact be WWII airplane photos.
I don't have Teetar: Could someone pls post that under there pls? )

Hermius ‏@Hermius1 2h2 hours ago

ALERT: US/KIEV attempting to suggest Russian hi-tech weps being used at #Debaltseve in order to "greenlight" US weapons to #Ukraine
0 replies 3 retweets 2 favorites
Stéphane Siohan ‏@stefsiohan 2h2 hours ago

On-going drama in #Debaltseve. Pocket almost closed. Ceasefire at 12pm. Army surrender or they will be punished. #Ukraine Dien Bien Phu

Also See
[img=https://twitter.com/NewsBalkan/status/5 ... 8490083328]Surrender Leaflet[/img]
Nice inspirational map shown there.

Balkan news ‏@NewsBalkan 2h2 hours ago
Leaflet: Your commanders rushed to exit #Debaltseve. Dont let them turn u into cannon fodder. Surrender,save ur life

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Feb 2015 18:26

Meanwhile, Mariupol has disappeared from the news.
Or has it?

Anton ‏@antonovas 3h3 hours ago
@TaleahPrince @Vladosfm Yeah!, I see a couple of russians invade #Mariupol

GorseFires Collectif ‏@GorseFires 2h2 hours ago
"Azov" Regiment have taken their wounded back to base and hospital in #Mariupol. Several are seriously wounded. (via @Polk_Azov)

Retweeted 90 times
Conflict Reporter ‏@Conflict_Report 2h2 hours ago

#BREAKING #MAP THE ENTIRE FRONT EAST OF #MARIUPOL WAS AND IS HIT BY RUSSIAN ARMY GRAD, ARTILLERY AND MORTAR FIRE.
Brad Cabana ‏@BradCabana 1h1 hour ago

CONFIRMED - high intensity battle east of #Mariupol with both sides committing armor, artillery and troops. #Ukraine #cdnpoli

South Front ‏@southfronteng 6m6 minutes ago
#NAF führte eine Konterattacke auf #Azov nahe #Mariupol und eroberte das Dorf #Pishevik zurück.... http://fb.me/1QevdD5ps

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Feb 2015 18:46

Yury Barmin ‏@yurybarmin 13m13 minutes ago
#Donetsk leader says will suppress UKR soldiers' attempts to leave “cauldron"

BBCNews:

"The militants are destroying Debaltseve," Donetsk region police chief Vyacheslav Abroskin was quoted as saying on the censort.net website.
"The shelling of residential areas and civilian buildings continue. The city is on fire. There has been a direct hit from Grads (rockets) on the city police station."
In Mariupol, reports said pro-Russian rebels were using artillery and tanks to attack nearby villages.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 14 Feb 2015 18:52

Elections inhibit Nazi tradition of robbing Ukraine and taking wealth out.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has warned that, if peace is not brought about in Ukraine, nationwide martial law will be introduced.

I warned at a meeting of the Ukrainian Cabinet of ministers even before Minsk that, if there is no peace, we would have to make a very hard but necessary decision on imposing martial law. I stress once again: in this case martial law will be imposed not only on Donetsk and Luhansk but also on the entire country," Poroshenko said at a ceremony of delivering equipment to Ukrainian border guards in Kyiv on Saturday.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 14 Feb 2015 21:26

Poroshenko: I stress once again: in this case martial law will be imposed not only on Donetsk and Luhansk but also on the entire country,

And how exactly is this genuwine Nazi Poroshenko going to exert control on Donetsk and Luhansk when his nazi army is not in control? By getting Blackwater humanitarians to blow up more chemical factories? Unless of course, this is just a ploy to bring on martial law across ukraine so he and his ukbapzis can target ethnic russians...they have had plenty of experience committing genocide of jews in the past, so I guess they do have practice.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 15 Feb 2015 00:47

@steven_pifer #Russia now denying it is party to Minsk agreement, even though its ambassador to #Ukraine signed. Not a good sign for the agreement.

As expected, Porshenko and his nazis are the one who don't intend to honor the minsk "agreement" but the propaganda is going to be that Putin is the one not honoring the agreement. US media and talking heads are like Pravda used to be, except better at propaganda targeted at US citizens.

The above tweet is by one of the "scholars" from Brookings Mental Institution, like his colleague Talbott., both of them Ex-US State Dept., so this is propaganda direct from the donkey's mouth.

trobe Talbott @strobetalbott · 3h 3 hours ago
The #Ukraine story in one sentence: "The office of Mr. Putin endorsed the ceasefire while trying to distance Kremlin from it."

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 15 Feb 2015 01:29

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... looms.html

Interesting details here and shows how the Ukbapzis could lie through their teeth.

About Debaltseve

It was one of the most hotly contested points at the Minsk talks on Wednesday night, with Mr Poroshenko reportedly spending a great deal of time arguing with Mr Putin over whether or not the town was surrounded.

So whats the truth

But some say the situation has been much more difficult for much longer than Kiev officially wants to admit. On Friday, a prominent Ukrainian commander, Semen Semenchenko, criticised official military spokesmen for pretending that the road was still open, saying his men had been forced to withdraw from a key hamlet. And the wounded in Artemivsk hospital had come from positions outside the pocket. “No one gets out of Debaltseve,” said one soldier who declined to give his name. “It has been closed for five or six days.”

“You can carry on if you want to die,” a Ukrainian soldier at a checkpoint on the road from Artemivsk to Debaltseve warned reporters.

So we know that Debaltseve has been encircled for last 6 days. I was wondering why the Junta was not admitting it. Now we find that Poroshenko wouldnt admit it either. So why wouldnt they just accept it ?! Strange

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2015 02:20

EuroMaidan PR ‏@EuromaidanPR 23m23 minutes ago

Semenchenko: the enemy is holding #Debaltseve- Artemivsk highway through Lohvynove where they set up a stronghold https://www.facebook.com/dostali.hvatit ... 7399838035 …

How can the UkBapZis still have fuel and ammo left? Is the airport still operational? That would be bad after the ceasefire comes into effect.
Meanwhile, in Mariupol:

TheEqualizer ‏@ColoniumKoeln 5m5 minutes ago
#Debaltseve #Mariupol 'Heros of Ukr.',the anti-Semitic Azov Batt,in total panic and the citizens has no sympathy too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXEB52DgSQI#t=19 …

espressino ‏@ulvdis 38m38 minutes ago

MT @Polk_Azov #Russia'n TV Lifenews confirmed the failed terrorist attack in direction #Mariupol http://vk.cc/3tkccR #Ukraine

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 15 Feb 2015 03:00

This entire ceasefire seems to be tactical to get supplies to the poroshenko troops in Debaltseve, and maybe the russians figured it out, after Poroshenko let it out that he was not going to honor the ceasefire.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2015 08:19

"All is quiet" was reported in Debaltseve 5 hours ago, but an hour later it started up again.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 15 Feb 2015 12:27

The eu needs to call up the Americans, tell them they know that US mercenaries (contractors) are working to undermine the ceasefire, tell them to call off their attack dogs and stop any further destabilization actions. Enough is enough is what they need to say. If they don't say it now, their voices won't be heard above the din later...

The EU has come to realise that their interests do not converge 100% with the US in the Eurasian space... Actually has been made to realise this through US missteps.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Feb 2015 12:43

^^^ JeM,

There is no evidence this is a true narrative.

There are only two hot pockets at the moment mariupol will cool down. Debaltsevo is a knot.

Overall, the western reinforcements will take weeks to get to kiev. They are flowing non stop. And beyond that it is prudent to wait for the snow to melt. Russia CAN cut the gas to europe altogether in a real blow up.

This EU is better than US propaganda is too easy to swallow. NATO is a single entity and EU is currently led by a Pole, is it not?

Russia may have levers not evident to us. Otherwise, this is not a ceasefire. It is a reinforcement/realignment.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 15 Feb 2015 13:04

Nope. No evidence.

No, EU is not "led" by a pole. It's what the Germans say, and then the French. For now. US interests are not convergent with EU interests here.

Ceasefire will probably hold for a while with erratic violations.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 15 Feb 2015 13:49

Alexander Zakharchenko, the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, signed a decree ordering a ceasefire on Friday afternoon.
But he added in a press conference that the ceasefire would not apply to Debaltseve because he considered it to be inside separatist territory.
And he added that any attempt by the Ukrainians to break out of or to relieve the pocket would be considered “a violation of the Minsk agreement”.
That effectively presents the Ukrainians trapped in the pocket with an ultimatum: surrender or die.

Fighting will continue in Debaltseve at least till the Ukbapzi forces surrender or die. Hmmmm

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 15 Feb 2015 16:27

JE Menon wrote:Nope. No evidence.

No, EU is not "led" by a pole. It's what the Germans say, and then the French. For now. US interests are not convergent with EU interests here.

Ceasefire will probably hold for a while with erratic violations.

JeM,

Nominally, the president of EU is a Pole. Is what I meant. He can crow. Merkel/HoleEnd/Cameron may call the shots, with Cameron being an outcast due to being a poodle caste, and not ever really being a full member.

You are generally right. The exception is Debaltsevo. You cant give up on whatever thousands there are in there. And when they make a Donetsk airport situation of it, the tanks and artillary will come and poof goes the ceasefire. There are too many trapped there.

Elsewhere, with OSCE UAVs watching, things will be calm and trenches will be dug for Spring when the need for gas reduces.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 15 Feb 2015 17:08

The euros and Russians really really don't want a resumption of conflict. That's why the Swiss "facilitator" had such credibility. As for the US it has yet to demonstrate this is the case. Here is its chance. Otherwise it will be war, but it won't be one which they will benefit from in any way as the preeminent power on the planet. It will change the euro-US dynamic. This war is as much about euro-American relations as it is about Russian relations with euro America combine...

But this is an easy thing we will find out soon enough...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Feb 2015 18:47

electra ‏@electradiffusa 5 minutes ago RT @Novorossiyan v/@gbazov #MINSK2 Groind reports: situation in #Debaltseve Cauldron & near #Mariupol returned to pre-CF intensity levels.
Novorossiya Lives ‏@Novorossiyan 12 minutes ago
Via @gbazov #MINSK2 - Acc. 2 ground reports, situation in both #Debaltsevo Cauldron & nr #Mariupol has returned to pre-CF intensity levels.
Litle Spark ‏@LitleSpark 19 minutes ago @mirceabarbu @Reuters #Mariupol -#Novoazovsk line the Azov battalion making an incursion. NOW (I have to inform the news to the press hehe)
Storm Bringer ‏@StormBringer15 26 minutes ago Nazis form #Azov are identifying and cleaning up pro-Russian sympathizers in #Shirokino marauding goods.#Mariupol #NAF #DNR #Ukraineconflict
Gleb Bazov ‏@gbazov 22 minutes ago #MARIUPOL - Full-fledged battle unfolding @ #Shirokino. #Azov troops using artillery & tanks in the offensive. #NAF successfully resisting.
OSCE ‏@OSCE 48 minutes ago @OSCE_SMM Chief: no violations of ceasefire in #Mariupol
Alec Ross ‏@AlecJRoss 54 minutes ago
Complete disregard for ceasefire in #Ukraine in #Mariupol & elsewhere. Putin's compulsion to deceive makes polite diplomacy near impossible.
sonia engstrom ‏@sonicsonia 2 hours ago reports, by locals, about shelling in #Mariupol The night was peaceful, but half an hour ago it started again.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Feb 2015 21:04

JE Menon wrote: The EU has come to realise that their interests do not converge 100% with the US in the Eurasian space... Actually has been made to realise this through US missteps.

EU core interest in Russia is to procure cheap Oil and Gas as geographically its much cheaper to do that over land using pipes then say to transfer Crude via Sea or LNG. Ofcourse that has been the case since Soviet Union times and Russia just inherited those same pipelines that passed through Ukraine and build a new one for German i.e Nord Stream.

No wonder most of the Oil/Gas export from Russia goes to EU . Russia get paid well by EU and EU in return gets Gas/Oil at discounted rates.

Beyond that EU wouldnt care much about Russia .....So the relation is just Business Driven not convergence of Geo-Political Interest.

When it comes to Geo-Political Interest EU/Russia has few convergence eg Iran Nuke program and most of the time they dont see eye to eye on many issues , NATO Expansion , ABM Deployment in Europe etc

In Reality EU is not Russias real friend and if there were any doubts the current round of sanctions just prove that.

The only Real Friend Russia has when it comes to Geo-Political Interest are India and China ...and they incidently also happens to be fastest growing economies of the world.

So in Medium and Long run Russia would be better of building its Energy Markets in China and India and Asian countries and keeping EU relation business like. If EU get alternate source of Gas and Oil else where then they can go ahead and buy from those countries.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 15 Feb 2015 21:12

Austin wrote: When it comes to Geo-Political Interest EU/Russia has few convergence eg Iran Nuke program and most of the time they dont see eye to eye on many issues , NATO Expansion , ABM Deployment in Europe etc

In Reality EU is not Russias real friend and if there were any doubts the current round of sanctions just prove that.

Geopolitics is less about friendship than it is about interests, as is well known.

One could argue that secure energy supplies from Russia to the EU is a crucial part of EU's geopolitics -- it is only "just business" if EU has other alternatives for carbon energy sources, not if the relationship is unique in terms of its cost/benefits.

Russian oil routes to Asia and China are many years away and will not exactly help Russia for the next decade. Iran's nuke program is only a bother for the USA, given its history with Iran -- EU countries have been more or less neutral about it, though the US leads them all given how it is a security provider for EU.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Feb 2015 22:07

Tuvaluan wrote: One could argue that secure energy supplies from Russia to the EU is a crucial part of EU's geopolitics -- it is only "just business" if EU has other alternatives for carbon energy sources, not if the relationship is unique in terms of its cost/benefits.

EU are already looking to source Gas from other sources but that would only begin to show in medium term 5 years down the line. Oil perhaps might not be so easy as refineries are built around Russian Blend of Oil so this will take longer time if cheaper Oil source is available.

Ofcourse one needs to see how this goes. As Russia has the ability to undercut the market due to huge gas reserves..... for eg Russia sells Gas to CSTO countries at $200 or even less compared to $380 for EU and around $350-360 for China

Russian oil routes to Asia and China are many years away and will not exactly help Russia for the next decade. Iran's nuke program is only a bother for the USA, given its history with Iran -- EU countries have been more or less neutral about it, though the US leads them all given how it is a security provider for EU

Russia already supplies significant Oil to China and Gas supplies would be larger than EU once the Western Pipeline deal to china is signed , with India the number are not as significant but still decent , China and Russia share a border so pipeline is cheaper and better.

Even if EU does not want to do any thing , US is quite capable of arm twisting EU as shown in Ukraine episode and boasted by no less than US Vpee Biden.

EU would have lost all the trust that Russia would have had so far as as Lavrov said last week EU failed the Stress Test in relationship with Russia.

Hence China and India remains the only viable long term reliable geo-strategic and Economic partner for Russia

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 15 Feb 2015 22:26

Austin,

Ask these questions:

1. Are the US and EU interests vis a vis Russia 100% aligned? - I am only saying they are not.

2. Are American actions in Ukraine taking into account primarily EU interests or US interests in line with its worldview - I suggest that they are taking care of their interests.

3. Will the EU therefore find a way to take care of its own interests in line with its regional and worldview - I suggest that the recent ceasefire agreement indicates that it will.

4. Does this mean any attempt to undermine the ceasefire will be viewed negatively by the EU - whether it comes via the US or Russia? I suggest that it will.

5. Are EU intelligence agencies and diplomats incapable of finding out what exactly is happening on the ground on the Russo-Ukrainian border? I think they are not. Do you think otherwise? If yes, on what grounds?

6. In this situation, whether the ceasefire is maintained or not, who stands strategically weakened relative to pre-Maidan situation on the ground - taking into account the energy dependency which you have mentioned above? The sanctions on Russia are a double edged sword, with one edge affecting the EU much more than the US...

This stupid move to activate the Ukrainian option, and directly confront Russia in its "near abroad" and the hamfisted, obvious way in which it was executed may ultimately fray the post-WWII US-West European strategic compact beyond repair. It can still be rescued though, and not by the Europeans. The US will have to set this right.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 15 Feb 2015 23:12

The honest Americans are being misled by cheating ukrainians. Well `sometimes`.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/14/world ... ction.html

When Senator James Inhofe took the floor of the Senate on Wednesday to argue for arming the Ukrainian military, he brought with him what he called indisputable proof of Moscow’s support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine — a poster with three large photographs of “Russian tanks entering Ukrainian territory.”

In his prepared remarks, Mr. Inhofe, a Republican from Oklahoma, said the images of “Russian troops in T-72 tanks, B.T.R. armored personnel carriers, and B.M.P. infantry fighting vehicles entering eastern Ukraine” constituted evidence of “an invasion of the Ukraine by Russia.”

As Gawker reported, just hours after they were posted online by the Beacon, a group effort to vet the photographs had revealed that one of the images, taken in October, actually showed separatists in Ukraine, while the other two did show Russian troops, but driving near Russia’s border with Georgia more than six years ago during the brief conflict in South Ossetia.