Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 12 Feb 2015 08:33

Tuvaluan wrote:According to liveuamap.com, which is clearly a ukrainazi/US supported site, so this can be considered as propaganda against the Ukrainian freedom fighters in Donetsk.

Claims that "russian army" shelled the Ukrainazi army base in kramatorsk with "mid range" missiles and that Russian UAV was shot down in that location.

"pensioner" with AK-47 held in mariupol bus station..doesn't say which side he was trying to support.

Current battlefront on the outskirts of Mariupol in Shyrokyne.
Regional ukrainazi army enlistment office in Livne also bombed/shelled.


The Russian drone part was probably correct. Drones are being used quite effectively to identify targets for rocket attacks by rebels, to the extent that the presence of a drone overhead is having a psychological impact on Ukie soldiers.


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 12 Feb 2015 11:13

Days of negotiating. what resulted?

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 12 Feb 2015 11:32

Shreeman wrote:Days of negotiating. what resulted?


http://tass.ru/en/world/777088

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 12 Feb 2015 11:49

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9mDE_JIQAImW2z.jpg

This pic might sum up the Minsk talks.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vijaykarthik » 12 Feb 2015 12:08

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... insk-talks

Announcement due shortly? Looks like a new doc and a kissfire in about 48 hours? New doc to me means that the new rebel areas stay in force!

Should be confirmed in a while

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 12 Feb 2015 12:32

Catch the US sending in its grunts to face off with pro-Russian DR fighters! The US will simply outsource the task to "contractors" like Blackwater in Iraq and put a few billions into the pockets of Dick the ..... Cheney types baclk home.

Flash! Deal in MInsk.
Ukraine crisis: reports emerge of ceasefire deal in Minsk talks

Diplomatic sources suggest Ukraine and Russia will sign document drafted in marathon negotiations brokered by France and Germany


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... insk-talks

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 12 Feb 2015 12:33

Normandy Four Leaders End Talks in Minsk on Ukraine Reconciliation


http://sputniknews.com/politics/2015021 ... 50362.html

MINSK (Sputnik) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that so far there is “no good news” coming from the reconciliation talks on the Ukrainian crisis in Minsk, but there is some hope, Agence France-Presse reported Thursday.

“Unfortunately there isn’t any good news. So far no news, but there is hope,” Poroshenko said, citing several “unacceptable conditions” set forth from the Russian side.

Ukrainian reconciliation talks in Minsk of the 'Normandy four' will continue, as well as other negotiation formats to end the crisis in the country, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told RIA Novosti on Thursday.

“We will continue to work, we have been working non-stop in all the possible formats,” Klimkin said, responding to a question of whether the Normandy meeting had ended.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/2015021 ... z3RVzdbwwN

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 12 Feb 2015 13:45

Bogey! Willy Wanker,the US puppet,probably under orders from Uncle O'Bomber,has chickened out of the deal which was according to one report "80%" complete.

We will now most likely see,if Merkel and co. cannot save the day for Europe,watch the UKR spiral into a full-blooded civil war which will become a proxy Cold War-2 war between the US and Russia. No prizes for guessing correctly who is going to win,as we watch daily which side is "beating the retreat" across the globe!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... insk-talks
Marathon negotiations involving Russia, France and Germany continue in Minsk as Ukrainian president plays down talk of a deal

Ukraininan President Petro Poroshenko is followed by Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the talks in Minsk.

Matthew Weaver and agencies
Thursday 12 February 2015

Ukraine played down speculation about a possible ceasefire agreement over the conflict in the east of the country on Thursday, accusing Russia of imposing “unacceptable” conditions as marathon talks continued in Minsk.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko emerged from a break in the talks with leaders of Russia, France and Germany saying: “Unfortunately there’s no good news yet.”

“There are conditions that I consider unacceptable,” he said told AFP, without elaborating. He added “there’s always hope,” but said the “the process is ongoing.”

“We’re in non-stop talks, as you can see, the situation is very difficult, (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel and (French) President Francois Hollande are helping us a lot, but for now the situation is difficult.”

There were reports overnight of a possible deal from the talks in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. One source said there was hope agreement could be reached and another saying a document would be signed, according to news agencies.

But the document may be a joint declaration rather than a full agreement, and signed by lower-level envoys rather than the leaders themselves, said Reuters, quoting sources

The Kremlin press service said on Thursday that talks were continuing.

Any agreement would however be sent to a “contact group” that includes representatives of the pro-Russian rebels, whose involvement could be crucial, Reuters was told.

The Minsk talks went for more than 12 hours over Wednesday night in the Belarussian capital as European leaders tried to broker a deal to end fighting.

Reuters said it had seen a document discussing a ceasefire starting on 14 February, the withdrawal of heavy weapons, the creation of a security zone and the return of full control of the border with Russia to Ukraine by the end of 2015, as well as the withdrawal of foreign arms and troops. But it was unclear whether the document represented a final agreement, a draft or a discussion paper, the news agency said.

More than 5,300 people have died since April in the conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in two eastern provinces and the bloodshed rose sharply in recent weeks.

As President Barack Obama faces rising calls at home to send military aid to Ukraine, European leaders fear it would only aggravate the fight. Russia, meanwhile, faces a severe economic downturn driven in part by sanctions the west has imposed for supporting the separatists with troops and equipment, which Russia vehemently denies it is doing.

The urgency felt by all sides appeared to be underlined by the extraordinary length and discomfort of the talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany. They sat down with each other Wednesday evening in the Belarusian capital and the talks continued as sunrise neared on Thursday.

In a diplomatic blitz that began last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande visited Kiev and Moscow to speak to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, paving the way for the marathon session in Minsk.

“The entire world is waiting to see whether the situation moves toward de-escalation, weapons pullback, ceasefire, or ... spins out of control,” Poroshenko said upon arriving.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, signalled some progress, saying late on Wednesday that the talks were “active, better than super”. But it was unclear when a decision might be announced and how soon the shooting would stop if an agreement was reached.

A top rebel official, Andrei Purgin, told Russian television that it might take a day or more for hostilities to end even if a ceasefire was called.

On Wednesday the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, said “quite a number of problems remain” in negotiations including the future of eastern Ukraine, guarantees about the Ukraine-Russia border and the prospects of a possible ceasefire, weapons pullback and prisoner exchange.

Fabius said the aim of the talks was to win an accord that works on the ground, “not just one on paper.”

Germany and France rushed to mediate after a recent surge in fighting that continued on Wednesday. In the rebel-held city of Donetsk rebel officials said five people were killed and nine wounded in a shelling attack on a bus station; An Associated Press reporter saw one body. Officials in Kiev said 19 troops were also killed and 78 wounded in fighting in Debaltseve, a hotly contested transport hub in eastern Ukraine.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 12 Feb 2015 15:29

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... insk-talks

An agreement has been signed. Ceasefire from 15th.
I dont think ceasefire is going to hold. Ukraie has no control over the volunteer battalions and Pro-Russians will almost certainly react to any provocation with another attack.
And they certainly would have their grudges.And rightly so. A ceasefire is signed only when the pro-Russians are kicking Ukbapzi butts.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 12 Feb 2015 15:33

Deans wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9mDE_JIQAImW2z.jpg

This pic might sum up the Minsk talks.


Very nice and funny picture.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 12 Feb 2015 16:13

http://rt.com/business/231591-ukraine-imf-aid-lagarde/

IMF announces new $17.5bn bailout package for Ukraine

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 12 Feb 2015 17:18


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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 12 Feb 2015 18:09

Deans,RS,there was a similar but clearer pic on RT of the same "trio",climbing up the stairs,with Putin and the Belarus pres. grinning and walking behind a grim wrinkle-faced Willy Wanker.It said it all! Great pics in the link,Putin,master of all strolls in the centre of the hall,while red-faced grim looking choc-pres,Willy Wanker ,speaks into his cell phone.

http://rt.com/news/231571-putin-minsk-ukraine-deal/
Ukraine peace deal: Ceasefire starting February 15, removal of heavy weapons

February 11, 2015. From left: Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko pose for a group photo at Independence Palace in Minsk after restricted attendance peace talks on Ukraine held by the Russian, German, French and Ukrainian leaders.(RIA Novosti / Viktor Tolochko)

An agreement has been brokered in Minsk to stop hostilities in Ukraine from Sunday. The deal was reached after marathon talks between the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, and signed by the Ukrainian rebels.

READ MORE: The Minsk ceasefire deal in 5 tweets

“I believe we agreed on a big deal. We agreed to a ceasefire starting at 00:00 on February 15,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told the media after the talks were finished.

"The main thing achieved is that from Saturday into Sunday there should be declared - without any conditions at all - a general ceasefire," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told journalists in a separate statement.

Pullout compromise

A compromise decision was taken over the disengagement line, which was the biggest stumbling block in the negotiation. According to the document, Kiev’s troops would pull back heavy weapons from the current frontline. The rebels would pull back from the line as it existed in September, when the previous ceasefire agreement was signed.

READ MORE: The Minsk ceasefire deal, point by point

The security zone separating the warring parties must be at least 50km wide for artillery over 100mm caliber, 70km for regular multiple rocket launchers and 100km for heavier weapons with a longer range, such as Tochka-U ballistic missiles, the document states.

The weapons pullout must start on Sunday and be completed in no longer than 14 days. The OSCE is charged with implementing the ceasefire on the ground and will use its drone fleet and monitors to verify that both parties are sticking to the deal.

The ceasefire deal provides for withdrawal of all "foreign troops, heavy weapons and mercenaries" from Ukraine under an OSCE monitoring. "Illegal armed groups" would be disarmed, but local authorities in the future would be allowed to have legal militia units.

The agreement involves exchange of all prisoners, which is to be completed within 19 days. A general amnesty for the rebels would be declared by Kiev.

The national government’s control over the borders between Donetsk and Lugansk Regions would be fully restored a day after municipal elections, which would be held in the regions as part of a profound constitutional reform.

Decentralization reform

The agreement requires a political reform in Ukraine to ensure decentralization and a special status for its rebel provinces. It requires Ukraine to adopt legislation which would provide permanent privileges to the Lugansk and Donetsk Regions, currently self-declared republics, by the end of 2015.

The legislation would include the right for language self-determination and trans-border ties with Russia, as well as the authority of the local governments to appoint local prosecutors and judges, the document states.

Humanitarian and economic issues are also mentioned in the deal. Kiev would restore economic ties and social payments, which it cut in rebel-held areas, the document says. An international monitoring mechanism may be established for these payments.

During the transition period an internationally-monitored mechanism for humanitarian aid to the regions affected by the war would be implemented, the document sates.

Direct talks needed

Putin said that Kiev’s unwillingness to hold direct talks with the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics was among the reasons it took so much time to reach an agreement.

“They may be unrecognized, but we have to deal with real life here, and if everyone wants to agree and have sustainable relations, direct contacts are needed,” Putin said.

He added that the ‘Normandy Four’ expect the parties involved in the conflict to show restraint even in the days before the ceasefire takes effect.

The terms of the ceasefire are spelled out in a document signed by members of the so-called contact group, which includes representatives from the rebel forces, Kiev, Moscow and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe, Putin said.

The members of the ‘Normandy Four’ – Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande – supported a joint declaration describing the results of their work.

The declaration was not meant to be signed by the leaders, Germany FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.


Studying the agreement,it is a terrific victory for Vladimir Putin,where he has obtained "permanent" rights for the DR region to basically rule themselves and establish their own "trans-border" ties with Moscow,preserving their language,etc. Plus Kiev has to make "social payments" to the people of the DR region monitored by intl. monitors! In short,the writ of the UKR is in name only in the east .Putin has engineered the east's permanent fraternal ties to Moscow,a federal system in all but name.

The beauty of it all is that the US is nowhere on the horizon,the "Normandy4" being Putin,Merkel,Hollande and Willy Wanker.

At least the US is the missing "donkey" in the room,the "poodle" from Poodleistan nowhere even mentioned.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 12 Feb 2015 18:32

Some more intl. headlines and titbits:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 40405.html
Russian president Vladimir Putin announced the ceasefire .....
Ukrainian crisis: Ceasefire agreed as Russia launches military exercises across 12 regions
Tensions escalated after president Poroshenko allegedly briefly storming out of the meeting hall after an “emotional conversation” with Mr Putin, Russian media reported.

Eyebrows were also raised after pictures emerged that appeared to show Mr Putin snapping a pencil during talks.

• Editorial: As crises grip Europe, the solutions our partners are striving for lack any meaningful contribution from Britain :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Typical poodle reaction from the Torygraph!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... Putin.html

'One-sided Minsk deal on Ukraine asks nothing of Putin'

Analysis: Emerging agreement appears to meet few of Ukraine's demands and at best will merely freeze conflict when the advantage lies with Russia-backed separatists

The new agreement in Minsk fails to resolve one of the central issues at stake, namely the presence of thousands of Russian troops on Ukrainian territory.

A Russian force of about 9,000 soldiers, consisting of five infantry battalions supported by tanks and heavy artillery, is believed to have entered Ukraine to help the rebel offensive.

This onslaught has succeeded in enlarging the breakaway statelet under insurgent control.


Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, had made the “withdrawal of foreign forces” his key demand.

For this to mean anything, it would also need to entail restoring Ukrainian control – or at least outside monitoring – of the country’s eastern border with Russia.

If this could be achieved, then the departure of Russian forces could be verified and they would not be able to re-enter without someone noticing.

Yet the new agreement merely states that "foreign armed formations" and "military equipment" will leave the "territory of Ukraine". No timetable is given and no deadline is set. Nor is there any provision for verification, save a vague line that the withdrawal should take place under the "supervision" of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

If Mr Poroshenko pushed for Russian forces to leave by a given date with a clear method of ensuring compliance, then he has come away empty handed. As presently drafted, the latest Minsk agreement requires no real concessions from Vladimir Putin.

Instead, the proposals for a ceasefire and a withdrawal of heavy artillery impose disproportionate obligations on Ukraine.

The rebels and their Russian allies have already captured a significant amount of territory. With these gains in their metaphorical pocket, they can safely sign a ceasefire.

One of the few ways by which Ukraine has been able to hit back is by using heavy artillery. But if the guns fall silent under the new Minsk agreement, then Ukraine will lose its main way of pounding its enemies in the lost territory.

A withdrawal of forces along the ceasefire line will also provide little comfort. After all, this will mark the de facto partition of Ukrainian territory.

Any palliative words about the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine will mean little, given the stark fact that Russia and the rebels now control thousands of square miles.
On the face of it, the emerging agreement seems to meet few of Mr Poroshenko’s demands. At best, it will merely freeze the conflict at a moment when the advantage lies with his enemies.



Very easy for the Brits to criticize choco-pres Will Wanker for succumbing to Putin,but what choice did he have? His disastrous military misadventures,thanks to his US advisers,saw his forces mauled,suffer massive casualties,the threat of thousands of trapped soldiers either mulched or captured and paraded in humiliation and protests against him back in Kiev. A failure to agree to a ceasefire would see a full-scale war with the DR,fully and openly supported by Russia which would permanently divide the country into two halves,something that he would not survive after the loss of the Crimea.The Europeans were unwilling to help him militarily,and the US was all bluff and bluster,where Uncle O'Bomber besieged on all fronts from Afghanistan,Iraq,Syria to Libya and now Yemen,has lost steam and its military machine has come to a shuddering halt,beating the bugle of retreat.

Grand Master Putin has won the game of chess for the UKR in inimitable style! he has the Crimea in his pocket and the east in his hands,plucked from the hands of Willy Wanker! The big Q now is how long will the choco soldier last? Humiliated on and off the battlefield,unable to gain any meaningful concessions,the knives will be out for him back in Kiev. Watch the Maidan.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 12 Feb 2015 19:28

Putin checkmates Obama as Russia overcomes U.S. “diplomacy”
Thursday, February 12, 2015 6:37

It was one minute to midnight in the U.S. instigated Ukrainian war just as it was a few months ago in Syria.

Right when Barack Obama was prepared to advanced his war mongering policies, Vladimir Putin made another maestro move.

Mr. Putin proved once again that Russia cannot be compared to the Soviet Union. It cannot be painted blood red just because a few neocons want to. Putin’s success in avoiding war also proves that America is not exceptional at all.

In fact, America is the standard, the average, more of the same, the status quo. The United States is more of the same as it has been since the end of WWII, a war-mongering, genocide-pushing, free-nation-bombing, inquisition-loving country, whose population could not be living any further from reality.

Putin beating Obama and the United States war machine is not a surprise or a nuisance anymore. It is now more evident than ever before that Putin is more influential than Obama in the Western world. Putin has done something simple that Obama cannot.


Mr. Putin reaches out to fellow world leaders to negotiate peace and is successful at doing it while Obama sits at home preaching to everyone about how wonderful and unique America is and how strongly the United States supports democracy. Putin has politically humiliated Obama not because he is more powerful than the seating U.S. president, but because he has shown a stronger desire to avoid conflict.

Putin has been successful even in the Eastern hemisphere, shaking hands and making deals with China, India and Egypt. In the meantime, Obama foolishly trusts his Ministry of Propaganda, both in the United States and abroad, to spread disinformation about what the U.S. wants the world to do and to believe.

Unfortunately for Obama and his corporate backers, the spread of information is no longer in the hands of the mainstream media, a group of ideological and political prostitutes that can no longer deceive the public. While new media rises like the phoenix, mainstream media collapses on its own feces.

Both Europe and the East have learned that siding with Obama and the neocons on beating the drums of war is not profitable in any way. Although most heads of state, including those who achieved the ceasefire in Ukraine, are under the control of supranational institutions whose leaders are in turn owned by corporate interests, it has become more apparent that, due to public awakening, presidents and prime ministers are weary of following to global centralized control and instead have opted for sitting down to talk peace, growth and sovereignty rather than pushing war as a business, imposing austerity and yielding power to Brussels. In this Putin has also gotten ahead of Obama.

As president of Russia, Vladimir Putin has sat down to the negotiating table with China, Iran, India and Egypt to create trade relations in their own currencies, thus abandoning the artificially strengthened dollar. He has also negotiated two peace agreements in Syria and Ukraine while still directing, at Israel”s dispair, the nuclear disarmament negotiations between Iran and the West.

While Obama appears on national and international television to tell everyone how much of a realist he is, what his vision is and how hard is it to maintain stability around the world, Putin has shown Obama through actions and tangible results, how diplomacy, not war-mongering economic sanctions or catchy rhetoric, is still more successful than “twisting arms” and threatening countries with military might. Mr. Putin is light years ahead of the American president in using diplomacy and seeking peace agreements.

Peace is something America has not worked for in over half a century. No matter how much the USA Today hates it, in Ukraine, Putin has had the last laugh. Read the rest below at the source link

Source: http://real-agenda.com/2015/02/12/putin ... diplomacy/

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 12 Feb 2015 21:33

Its too premature to say that Putin has won in Minsk. There are way too many loose knots in the argument.

The biggest wrong is that Putin has signed the agreement when pro-russian forces where on the offensive trapping Ukbapzis in Debaltseve. And when people of Ukraine where running here and there trying to avoid consciption.
Now Putin has given a reprieve to the Junta. What stops Ukbapzis from arming themselves, organising themselves and then breaking the ceasefire and start the fight again.
The German and French assurances are not worth two pennies. Last time they brokered a ceasefire between Yanukovich and Maidan ukbapzis. In fact they signed the document then. Why then did they recognise the coup government in Kiev.
To trust them is to trust snakes. They are just the good cops while US is the bad cop. They will turn around tomorrow and blame Russia and slap sanctions again even if they know its the Ukbapzis fault. How else could one define their U-turn in feb 14.

I think Putin has made a mistake. The fighting should have continued at least till the fall of Debaltseve at least, if not more. By that time the Ukbapzi regime would have been unravelled even more. And then he could have told the west to manage the affairs of their chamchas or be discredited in Ukraine and everywhere else.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 12 Feb 2015 21:42

Phillip,

You are over-optimistic as usual.

Consider the fact that when this deal fails, europe will be painted as having tried "historic appeasement" of russia and failed.

Do you think the Poles are going home? Do you think the US is no longer sending its "trainers"? Or the British Saxxon recreational vehicles are going back?

Anything short of a surrender from west ukraine is troubling for east ukraine. Everytime, they lose some of their bravest men and women. And more of the worthless junk, foreign fighters come up their ranks.

What happens to Debaltsevo seige and the town that has been mined worse than FATA on a friday? Putin is not laughing. Or one hopes he isnt.

Poroschenko has lived to fight another day. Why? 5000+ dead is not enough?

RS: The "agreement" is not signed by any of the 4. The "contact group" will sign. Putin more or less just stood in a press conference. Same difference though.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 12 Feb 2015 23:06

Rsoami wrote:Now Putin has given a reprieve to the Junta. What stops Ukbapzis from arming themselves, organising themselves and then breaking the ceasefire and start the fight again.


Agree that is exactly what Ukrainazis are going to do, but I suspect this maybe like a "time out" during a football game or any sport, where both sides to get their tactics straight and rearrange things before resuming the shooting and bombing. Surely, Putin is well aware the west ukraine has no intention of honouring this ceasefire in a permanent manner, or so one would imagine...both sides are digging in for a long fight, and the US is playing the part of muscular blonde guy in a miniskirt cheering them on from the sidelines breaking into a cheer: "hurrah for Freedom, rah rah democracy, its right right right, don't give up you two, fight fight fight."

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ramana » 13 Feb 2015 00:19

Philip, The after the Treaty of Aix- La Chappelle(French) or Aachen(German), Eastern Europe saw the emergence of Austria, Prussia and Russia as powers and the focus shifted from Western Europe to Eastern Europe. All the Napoleonic Wars, World Wars flow from that shift in focus.

Treaty of Minsk brings the focus back the region.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_ ... elle_(1748)

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby vishvak » 13 Feb 2015 01:13

Ukbapzis are behaving just like pakis, surviving and collecting arms till next attack.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 13 Feb 2015 03:17

^^^ There are more parallels to pakistan than you realize -- a pakistan occupied western portion of a state, with free arms flooding in from the US, and civilians not spared, General poroschenko Crying on the media while russian ethnicities are shown the railway station,...

It is a proper pakistan. No wonder the pakistanis are ukraine's natural friends.

yep, its peace time alright -- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... l-i62qlrta (EU to impose more sanctions 2/16)

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby disha » 13 Feb 2015 06:26

Shreeman wrote:^^^ There are more parallels to pakistan than you realize -- a pakistan occupied western portion of a state, with free arms flooding in from the US, and civilians not spared, General poroschenko Crying on the media while russian ethnicities are shown the railway station,...

It is a proper pakistan. No wonder the pakistanis are ukraine's natural friends.

yep, its peace time alright -- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... l-i62qlrta (EU to impose more sanctions 2/16)


Shreeman Saar, the whesht knows ingleese and we are SDRE thumb sucking yindoo ispeaking pappus onleee. This is the content of the farticle:


(Bloomberg) --

European Union leaders started work on further sanctions to prod Russia to enforce the cease-fire in eastern Ukraine.
EU leaders - Hollande and Merkel - the herkel team went back to see what will be their option if the E.Ukraine freedom fighters do not give up. Corollary: There will be further sanctions on Russia IF the E. Ukr freedom fighters do not agree

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of the brokers of the peace deal in Minsk, Belarus, emerged as one of its biggest skeptics, calling it a “glimmer of hope” that risks crumbling like a previous truce between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels.
So why was she there?

“If there are difficulties, I don’t exclude additional sanctions,” Merkel told reporters after outlining the accord at a summit in Brussels late Thursday. She said EU leaders called on the European Commission to get further measures ready.
If we are kicked again the most we can do is threaten more sanctions. We still have to agree on what to threaten with - whatever it is it will be called "sanctions" - And Putin is ROFL

The EU response reflected concern that the cease-fire deal announced earlier Thursday after more than 18 hours of talks will only mark a pause in the war that has devastated eastern Ukraine. The accord struck between Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin envisages a truce from midnight on Feb. 15 and reaffirms some commitments from a failed September bid to end the conflict.
So the "progress" of Poroshenko is capped and rolled back to September status., then why did so many Ukranians died?

The collapse of previous cease-fires has stoked doubts as to whether this one will hold. Ten months of fighting have killed more than 5,000 people, crushed Ukraine’s economy and propelled Russia toward a recession through U.S. and European sanctions.

U.S. Pressure

The U.S. doesn’t rule out imposing tougher sanctions or giving more security assistance to Ukraine if the Minsk deal isn’t fully implemented, according to American officials who briefed reporters on condition they weren’t identified.
No American official on record wants to be identified as the person wagging their finger. In a nutshell the "sanctions" have run its course.

Investors’ reaction to the cease-fire was mixed as concerns about the permanence of the cease-fire were alleviated by optimism that further Russian sanctions are off the table for now. While the Micex Index of stocks advanced 2.2 percent in Moscow, the ruble weakened 0.1 percent against the dollar.

In Ukraine, strains on the government’s coffers was eased after the International Monetary Fund announced a $40 billion bailout to help Ukraine stave off a default. Benchmark dollar debt due in July 2017 rose to 56.9 cents on the dollar. It’s down from about 90 cents a year ago, before Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
So US starts orange revolution and the IMF has to bail out Ukraine. I am scratching my head here., what has IMF have to do? Oh wait it has to save Wheshts chestnuts from the fire...

EU governments ratcheted up the sanctions gradually after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine last March, curbing European financing for Russian banks, halting the export of energy-exploration equipment and barring the sale of some defense-related goods.

July Expiration

What would trigger further restrictions was left open. EU decision-making procedures may work in Russia’s favor, since a unanimous vote by the bloc’s 28 governments is required to impose new sanctions or extend the current ones past their expiration in July.

The summit affirmed plans to put 19 more Russians and nine organizations on a blacklist on Feb. 16, despite objections by a handful of leaders. Currently 132 people and 28 organizations are on the list, which bars them from traveling to the EU or accessing European bank accounts.

French President Francois Hollande, the other co-broker of the Minsk accord, echoed Merkel in warning of more sanctions in the pipeline. He said the conditions are “not met” for France to deliver Mistral warships to Russia under a contract he suspended in September.

“In the best of hypotheses, the sanctions will be rolled back,” Hollande said. “But we are not there yet.” Hey and I want to "sell" the Mistral to Russia - need to keep the factory lines humming.....



So what was the goal of starting the Orange revolution in Ukraine? Russia has digested Crimea., compartmentalized Ukraine and NATO is restricted back to Poland.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 13 Feb 2015 06:44

The "bold" part is this:
The summit affirmed plans to put 19 more Russians and nine organizations on a blacklist on Feb. 16, despite objections by a handful of leaders.


The day after the ceasefire they will sanction russian deputy defense minister.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby disha » 13 Feb 2015 07:12

Shreeman wrote:The "bold" part is this:
The summit affirmed plans to put 19 more Russians and nine organizations on a blacklist on Feb. 16, despite objections by a handful of leaders.


The day after the ceasefire they will sanction russian deputy defense minister.


:D I affirm that statement was put in place. I also affirm that EU has a quick decision making procedure highlighted below:

EU decision-making procedures may work in Russia’s favor, since a unanimous vote by the bloc’s 28 governments is required to impose new sanctions or extend the current ones past their expiration in July.


Hey... all the sanctions any way expire in July!!!!!

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 13 Feb 2015 07:56

As far as I understand this applies only to the ones they put in place 2/16. Only the ones from the last round. Is that wrong?

What is the point of 3 month restriction day after the ceasefire? Pissing off Putin?

Dont rely on the expiry, the sanctions arent expiring. Russia is getting neither the mistral nor its money/materials. It can try its luck in whatever "court" it feels like trying.

So much for "imposing penalties for late delivery". Bleh.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Tuvaluan » 13 Feb 2015 08:10

France and Germany both escalating against Russia...WTF are Hollande/Merkel trying to do here? Can't see any upside for the economies of either of these countries with this escalation.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 13 Feb 2015 08:31

^^^ Domestic compulsions. The public in europe was not rabidly anti russian, still isnt. The whole over-nighter was necessary to pretend its all Putins fault.

Now everything is putin's fault. Jokes in night shows, cartoons in social media, the whole schbang. Before Spring Putin will be looking worse than Mao and Stalin put together.

Word of the year 2015: Oligarch.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Austin » 13 Feb 2015 09:08

I would just hope the sanctions stays on it would do a lot good to the Russian Economy to wean away from EU centric to more BRICS/Asian centric.

In short term there would be tough times but in medium/long term it would help the Russian economy as these countries are the only one that are comfortably growing at pace of 4-6 % per annum.

EU growth for all practical purpose is dead and the future of EU itself is doubtful.

If west can apply sanction for Ukraine tommorow the same tactics can be applied on Iran or other geo-political issue where West and Russia dont see eye to eye.

So geopolitically it makes sense to wean away their economy from West and integrate with fast growing economies.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 13 Feb 2015 10:01

Austin,

Wishes are not horses. The world is a very dirty place. Trade rebalancing is just an act and reserve currencies arent changing any time soon. Russia will be damaged A LOT before the revolution talk starts.

West will never sanction Ukraine -- see israel, or for that matter Georgia.

There is no waening happening. The bluster by china and India is just that. China will never take part in anything bad for itself due to russia. India has nothing to offer and no influence. Not to mention the likes of AAP.

Russia is alone in this. They can send crap to Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba. But thats the sort of rebalancing that isnt creating a real economy.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby habal » 13 Feb 2015 10:15

I believe Russia is setting up an alternate system, SWIFT etc comes in that plan. Economy can & will come later when the system is up and running. BRICS will gain either at cost of west or will become part of alternate system and then west has no option but to impose wars or terror strikes by one way or another to disrupt this. In a sense, this is beginning of end game. Putin recognized this back in 2012 and focused only on military restructuring.

I do not see Russia conclusively losing or winning this game, but it will surely take USA down a notch or two. Bringing it down to level of say a China or a Chindia.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 13 Feb 2015 10:46

Media reports say that the IMF is to bail out the UKR with 17.5B- after all they have a few billions in back payment to Russia for energy,a figure which might go upto $40B eventually. This is the pay-off for Willy Wanker to stay alive and in office,funds that he can keep the UKR oligarchs happy,qwith crumbs thrown to the plebs. That Putin has won a famous victory is the opinion of the "Torygraph",which correctly says that there is no pressure upon Russia,but almost everything upon the UKR.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... sight.html
Ukraine crisis: Minsk deal brings 'glimmer of hope' that end could be in sight
Deal struck after Vladimir Putin put unprecedented pressure on separatist leaders, but leaders warn "much work" still to be done

Media reports today also say that Putin has demanded that the trapped 8000+ UKR soldiers "surrender" to the DR forces before they are released!

Check out this classic pic in the link!
http://rt.com/news/231807-minsk-talks-behind-scenes/
16-hour Minsk marathon: Vodka for journos, Merkel’s cell died, Lavrov smokes
Lovely pics of the summit.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... -will-work

“The next 48 hours will be crucial,” said one EU diplomat at a summit in Brussels dominated by the Ukraine breakthrough.

Pro-Russia separatist forces have up to 8,000 Ukrainian troops surrounded at the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine and are demanding their surrender.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, emphasised the issue in his first remarks following the summit in Minsk with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, the French president, François Hollande, and Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, who western officials and diplomats believe came off worst in the negotiations.

The pro-Russia separatist forces around the town, Putin said, “have surrounded a significant grouping, from 6,000 to 8,000 men. They, of course, assume that this grouping lays down its arms and ceases resistance”.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Philip » 13 Feb 2015 13:00

http://rt.com/op-edge/231883-minsk-agre ... e-ukraine/

As Ukraine’s economy implodes, the tussle has increasingly had all the signs of two bald men fighting over a comb. It’s no longer a question of ‘who’s winning?’ but rather how much both are losing. Donbass, the industrial heartland of Ukraine, has been destroyed, both physically and mentally, as the Kiev administration relentlessly punishes the region for daring to seek autonomy following a violent coup it didn't support. Meanwhile, the rest of Ukraine is now offering wages below those of Tajikistan. Maidan’s legacy has been to pauperise Ukrainians.

READ MORE: ‘Political comedy’: Poroshenko’s ‘Russian army evidence’ raises eyebrows

Russia has its own economic problems. Sanctioned by the west for supporting the east Ukrainian rebels (which the Kremlin denies) and dealing with an oil price collapse, Russia is enduring its most devastating financial storm since 2008. At the same time Europe itself is suffering. The shaky Eurozone recovery has been derailed by sanctions blowback and a contracting Russian market. The USA, which perversely gave more backing to ‘Euromaidan’ than any actual EU state, is the only party to the conflict not directly injured by the mess.

The Minsk talks were an attempt by Europe’s three most significant countries to reclaim responsibility for the continent’s security with Washington sidelined and weaker regional players like Britain and Poland ignored. Putin, Merkel and Hollande all realise that the effects of the madness inside Ukraine cannot be infinitely contained within its own borders. Whether Minsk will actually lead to the end of hostilities is moot. However, the portents are encouraging.



"The truth will out".

BBC airs Maidan fighter admitting he fired on police before Kiev massacre
Published time February 12, 2015
http://rt.com/news/231775-bbc-maidan-shooting-started/
Nearly a year after the massacre on Kiev's Maidan left over 50 dead, the BBC has aired footage of an opposition fighter who says he fired at police in the early morning that day, bringing into question the popular narrative that riot police fired first.

READ MORE: Reuters investigation exposes ‘serious flaws’ in Maidan massacre probe

"I was shooting downward at their feet," says a man the broadcaster decided to identify as Sergei.

"Of course, I could have hit them in the arm or anywhere. But I didn't shoot to kill."

According to Sergei, he took up a position in the Kiev Conservatory, a music academy located on the southwest corner of Kiev’s Independence Square, on February 20.

One day prior, he had met up with a man who offered him two guns. The first was a 12-gauge shotgun, while the other was a hunting rifle – a Saiga that fired high-velocity rounds.

He chose the Saiga and hid it at a post office that, along with the conservatory, was under the protesters’ control. Sergei told the BBC he was later escorted to the Conservatory, where, with a second gunman, he spent 20 minutes before 7:00 am firing on police.

Other witness testimony has corroborated his account.

Andriy Shevchenko, who was an opposition MP at the time and also part of the Maidan movement, said he had received a phone call from the head of the riot police on Maidan Square claiming his officers had come under fire.

"He calls me and says, 'Andriy, somebody is shooting at my guys.' And he said that the shooting was from the Conservatory," Shevchenko said.

Shevchenko, in turn, says he contacted Andriy Parubiy, who headed up security for the protesters and was known as the Commandant of Maidan.

It’s at this point where the details of what followed become murky.

Parubiy says he sent a group of “his best men” to scour the Conservatory and determine if anyone was firing from it. Parubiy, who now serves as deputy speaker in the current Ukrainian parliament, claims his men found no gunmen in the building.

A photographer who had gained access to the Conservatory later in the morning just after 8:00 am, however, took pictures of men with guns in the building, though he never saw them discharge their weapons.

READ MORE: Kiev snipers hired by Maidan leaders - leaked EU's Ashton phone tape

All the while, Shevchenko claims he was getting increasingly panicked calls from the head of the riot police, who said that five officers had been wounded and another killed before he decided to pull out.

Sergei's account appears to contradict Parubiy’s.

"I was just reloading," Sergei told the BBC. "They ran up to me and one put his foot on top of me, and said, 'They want a word with you, everything is OK, but stop doing what you're doing.'"

A wounded protester is rushed to a vehicle following violence in Independence Square in Kiev February 20, 2014. (Reuters / Konstantin Chernichkin)

Sergei says he was convinced the men who dragged him away were from Parubiy’s security unit, though he admits he did not recognize their faces. After being taken out of the building, he was dropped off outside of Kiev by car, though it appears no further harm came to him.

By this point, the BBC notes that three policemen had been wounded fatally and the mass killings began that ultimately left more than 50 protesters dead.

Snipers on Maidan: unsolved mystery

February 20 was the bloodiest day of protests since they started in November 2013, and the bloodshed ultimately led to the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich. Both sides have blamed each other for being behind the sniper fire that brought the Euromaidan revolution to a head.

RT's Aleksey Yaroshevsky, who was reporting form the scene that day, came under fire from unidentified gunmen at the time.

Witnesses at the time said they saw snipers shooting at both protesters and security forces.

A leaked recording of a conversation between European Union foreign policy Baroness Caroline Ashton and Estonia’s foreign minister, Urmas Paet, also appeared to confirm the possibly that it had been members of the opposition, and not Yanukovich’s security forces, who fired the first shots.

“There is a stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers – it was not Yanukovich, it was somebody from the new [ruling] coalition,” Paet told Ashton, citing claims that “there were the same snipers killing people from both sides.”

Ukraine’s former State Security chief, Oleksandr Yakymenko, would also blame Ukraine's current Euromaidan government, saying they hired the snipers who precipitated violence on the square.

The protest leaders, many of whom hold positions in the current Ukrainian government, insist that Yanukovich and his security forces bear full responsibility for the shootings.

In April, almost two months after the shooting, Ukrainian prosecutors arrested several Berkut riot police officers as possible “Maidan snipers.”

The investigation, however, seems to have ended there.

In October, Reuters published the results of its examination, which analyzed Kiev’s probe into February’s Maidan shootings.

The news agency’s reporters uncovered “serious flaws” in the case against Berkut officers. Dozens of families of Maidan victims are still demanding "an objective and accurate investigation."


Kerry's hint if there are no hiccups.
Kerry: US may roll back Russia sanctions if Minsk agreements enacted
February 12, 2015

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Deans » 13 Feb 2015 13:17

Chocolate has another 48 hours to try and reopen the Debaltsevo pocket before the ceasefire comes into effect. Yesterday Ukies made 4 attacks to try and do so but failed. Chocolate's defence minister scored a self goal when he said there was never any pocket in
Debaltsevo - so there is understandably a reluctance among the Ukie soldiers to volunteer for an attack to reopen the pocket
that never was. While the soldiers trapped inside the pocket (6-8000) will be allowed to go, they will have to abandon their weapons - which include 100+ tanks.

This is the best outcome Putin could have hoped for. Reducing the pocket would have taken too long and would have meant
large number of (pro rebel) civilian deaths. Further fighting would also have meant the sanctions against Russia would have
started making a more visible impact.

While Ukraine gets 17.5 billion in IMF loans over 4 years (Legarde merely hopes EU & US will pitch in with another $ 20 B), they will have to pay (at the current prices) approx $ 28 billion to Russia over the next 4 years, in advance, for resuming gas imports at pre war levels. This is without the benefit of netting off transit fees, since Russia will no longer use the Ukrainian pipelines to export to EU. Germany pays about 18% less than Ukraine for importing Russian gas, since the price to Ukraine has to factor in 10% for Chocolate.

Additionally Ukraine will have to repay the money to IMF, while its currency steadily depreciates, making repayment costlier.
In earlier times IMF/EU might have chosen to write off the debt, but not when they have Greece threatening to default on a far
bigger amount.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby Shreeman » 13 Feb 2015 14:05

Deans,

This is a mutating strain. You cant hope for a vaccine available today to be relevant in 4 years. Money isnt going to change anything on the ukrainian calculus. It will, in the russian calculus.

This will be a bitter bloody fight.

Debaltsevo is interesting, lets see what goes on for the next couple days and if this hurdle can even be crossed. I suspect UA will bring to bear all its fire power to evacuate it ahead of Sunday. But if not, they may choose to blow up the remaining supplies. They will get brand new ones from US/UK.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 13 Feb 2015 16:56

This is the best outcome Putin could have hoped for. Reducing the pocket would have taken too long and would have meant
large number of (pro rebel) civilian deaths. Further fighting would also have meant the sanctions against Russia would have
started making a more visible impact.


All men gone scotfree to fight another day. All equipment in debaltseve destroyed. How is this the best outcome for Putin.
The rebels needed to hang around and stop the rescue of Ukbapzis which was not coming. The debaltseve pocket would have crumbled.

People running away from consciption in Ukraine. Unrest was rising. No money in ukraine to pay for anything. Sanctions are staying in place. The volunteer battalions themselves would have done something stupid in face of reverses in the battlefield.

Putin has just forced the pro Russian militia to abandon their military advantage second time in 6 months. He has acted dumb and stupid in trusting the west.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby RSoami » 13 Feb 2015 16:59

http://qz.com/343660/ukraine-is-heading-for-a-total-economic-collapse/


Ukraine is heading for a total economic collapse

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby ldev » 13 Feb 2015 20:09

Another picture which may indicate the dynamics between Putin and Porshenko!!
Image

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby svenkat » 13 Feb 2015 20:50

We cannot forget that Putin is a white orthodox christian.He has zero interest in destroying white christian status quo.Changing Ukraines borders(Crimea is a settled fact) is a strict no no for the west for that undermines western rules for the world.This would have been conveyed clearly to Putin.Putin does not want Ukraine in EU.He will settle for autonomy for the two russophile provinces of East Ukraine.The West would agree to it atleast for now.

The Germans are sensitive to Russian fears.And Germany has zero interest in giving into anglo-american or polish designs.A compromise is in the interest of Ukraine,Russia and Germany which is in the heart of Europe.There are limits to anglo-american maneouvering in East Europe in this age.

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

Postby JE Menon » 13 Feb 2015 21:04

^^pls note that the borders of Russia and Ukraine are not formally defined and agreed by both parties.
Same for the borders between Russia and Belarus.


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